Tag: Reid Berman

#2 Bowdoin vs. #5 Amherst: NESCAC Semifinal Preview

While Connor Green is in the forefront of our minds, the battle between David George and John Swords also looms large. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
While Connor Green ’16 is in the forefront of our minds, the battle between David George ’17 and John Swords ’15 also looms large. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

The late game Saturday pits two teams in Bowdoin and Amherst that played some of their best basketball of the season in the quarterfinals. The Polar Bears overcame the hot shooting of Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 because of great games from both John Swords ’15 and Lucas Hausman ’16. Meanwhile, the Lord Jeffs’ second game against Tufts was the exact opposite of the first one with Amherst routing the Jumbos in Medford. Connor Green ’16 is absolutely on fire scoring the ball averaging 28.2 PPG in his last five games against NESCAC opponents.

 Last time they played: 81-66 Amherst

These two met the first time in Amherst on Saturday, January 31. The Lord Jeffs held a double-digit lead for part of the first half, but the Polar Bears fought back to make it only a three point deficit at halftime. Hausman kept Bowdoin in the game with 15 points, but Green was even better with 17 first half points. Early in the second, Green took over for Amherst and scored 15 points in the first 7:22 of the half to push the Amherst lead up to 14 points. Bowdoin would never truly threaten again with the Amherst lead never getting below nine, and the Jeffs were able to coast to a comfortable victory. Hausman also scored only four second half points. Johnny McCarthy ’18 deserves credit for slowing down Hausman, and the freshman had a pretty good game besides just his defense, finishing with 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Both teams shot awfully from the free throw line as the Jeffs were a putrid 10-23 (43.5 percent) and Bowdoin shot 10-18 (55.6 percent).

Keep in mind that Bowdoin was coming off of an overtime game against Trinity the night before and was playing on the road. That might have contributed to them shooting only 2-15 from three. Still, Amherst matches up very well with Bowdoin because their two best defensive players, McCarthy and David George ’17, correspond perfectly with Bowdoin’s two biggest weapons, Swords and Hausman. Both teams have gone 5-1 since their first game and seem to have figured out exactly how to play with each other.

Bryan Hurley '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Bryan Hurley ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Bowdoin X-factor: Point Guard Bryan Hurley ’15

Swords and Hausman are definitely Bowdoin’s two most important players, but Hurley is a very close third. The Watertown, MA native does a little bit of everything for Bowdoin, but he is most effective when he is put into pick-and-roll situations. Hurley is particularly adept at getting the ball to Swords up high where the big man can throw down easy dunks. In conference play his assist-to-turnover ratio was 3.1. After putting a slow start to the season behind him, Hurley now is confident about getting into the lane and absorbing contact. Amherst is unlikely to let Hausman win the game by himself so Hurley will have to shoot the ball well from both beyond the arc and at the rim. Though he is a mostly pass-first point guard, Hurley tends to pick his spots to attack. He is never afraid to shoot from deep and will often take contested jump shots if he is ‘feeling it.’

Johnny McCarthy '18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy ’18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Amherst X-factor: Shooting Guard Johnny McCarthy ’18

The presumed NESCAC Rookie of the Year will guard Hausman, the clear leader right now for NESCAC Player of the Year. This will be a fun battle to watch all afternoon. McCarthy tied for the league lead in steals because of his outstanding length. He has exceptional timing as a defender and his quickness allows him to guard anyone from point guards to small forwards. The freshman is no defensive specialist though. He finished third on the team in scoring with 10.6 PPG, but his offensive game slipped later in the season. He shot only 33.3 percent from the field in conference games. His offensive game is predicated on rhythm which is one of the reasons why he struggles from the free throw line despite being a confident shooter. Despite his struggles, McCarthy led the Jeffs in minutes despite there being a bevy of talented perimeter players on the roster.

Three Questions

1. Can David George ’17 guard John Swords ’15 one-on-one?

Swords had his best offensive game of the season last week going 10-10 from the field, but George will present much more of a challenge. In their two match-ups so far, George has done a good job of pushing Swords out of the paint. The sophomore has gained a lot of strength though he still gives up a good deal of weight to Swords. The best way to defend Swords is to keep him from getting the ball in a deep position. If Swords gets the ball close to the basket, it is virtually impossible to stop him. Even though George has the length and ability to block Swords, the 7’0″ footer is too patient with the ball. The Amherst big man doesn’t need to stop Swords completely. George just has to limit him and make other players on Bowdoin beat the Jeffs.

2. Is Connor Green ’16 unguardable against a zone defense?

Last week we broke down how Bowdoin’s zone works with players scrambling on the perimeter. It works for the most part, but as Rooke-Ley showed in the first half, a knockdown shooter can neuter the effectiveness of it. In the second half Bowdoin adjusted and made sure to communicate so that somebody was always on Rooke-Ley. Though Rooke-Ley is a better pure shooter, Green might be an even harder task to guard because he shoots his three pointers from so freaking far away. Honestly, he regularly pulls the trigger from a couple of feet beyond the NBA three point line. When he gets into the zone, literally everything he throws up goes in, even if he needs to bank in a three. Zones, even ones as flexible as Bowdoin’s, do not account for someone stretching the floor like Green does. Expect Green to get and take some open looks from way out early.

Jake Donnelly '16 gets Connor Green '16 and Johnny McCarthy '18 in the air. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Jake Donnelly ’16 gets Connor Green ’16 and Johnny McCarthy ’18 in the air. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

3. Which role player will step up?

Even though both team’s rely on their stars heavily for scoring, secondary players will have to make shots as well. For Amherst those plaers are Jeff Racy ’17 and Jayde Dawson ’18. Racy is a straight shooter who made the second most threes per game in conference play. He gets a lot of open looks because of all the attention given to McCarthy and Green. Dawson meanwhile has never really figured out how to play within the Amherst system, but he is still so talented that he can go on short stretches where he looks like one of the best players on the floor. Meanwhile the two guys to keep an eye on for Bowdoin are Matt Palecki ’16 and Liam Farley ’18. A big part of Palecki’s improved play this season is his ability to hit threes as the power forward. Farley is a talented freshman who can force bad shots and have careless turnovers but also represents Bowdoin’s best scoring option off the bench. The stars will dominate most of the game, but how those players fill in the shadows is also important.

What to Expect

Amherst just looked incredible last weekend in blowing out Tufts. There is no question that they are the more talented team top-to-bottom. Yet you could easily argue that Bowdoin has the better point guard, better center and better pure scorer. The thing is that all three of Hurley, Swords and Hausman will have to play well for Bowdoin to win. The Jeffs certainly need Green to have a good performance, but they can survive any other player struggling because there are so many others capable of stepping up. Expect a game of runs with one team jabbing and the other answering back.

We have alluded to Hausman heavily throughout the preview but haven’t talked much about him specifically. He was special against Williams throwing up a relatively quiet 37. The Jeffs have to work to keep him off of the free throw line and out of transition because he is pretty much automatic in those situations. Point guard Reid Berman ’17 has to use his size and strength advantage over Hurley to force his way into the lane and make Swords guard him. That will draw in the defense and leave Racy or Green open on the perimeter. Nobody shot or made as many as threes as the Jeffs did in NESCAC play. With Swords in the middle of the Bowdon defense, they are likely to bomb away early and often.

Dave Hixon and Tim Gilbride are the two best in-game coaches in the NESCAC. The game might come down to who makes the better halftime adjustment. Hixon has been to tons of NESCAC semifinals, but he has rarely had a team this young. The veteran Polar Bears have never made it this far in the tournament. The recent Bowdoin success has come mostly at home and they haven’t played a NESCAC opponent away from Brunswick since they last met Amherst. This game is close to a toss-up. We give the slightest of edges to Bowdoin because Swords is such a difference maker in the middle.

Prediction: Bowdoin 82 – Amherst 78

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #5 Amherst at #4 Tufts

How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George '17 make in this weekend's NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)
How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George ’17 make in this weekend’s NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)

Three time defending NESCAC Tournament champion Amherst hits the road in a quarterfinal matchup for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Jumbos are playing in the #4 vs. #5 game for the fourth time in five years, and for the third time as the fourth seed. Amherst blew a chance to jump up to the second seed by getting torched by Middlebury last Sunday, and Tufts went 1-1 last weekend, the lose coming in a three-point defeat on the road at Bowdoin.

Last time they played: 80-53 Tufts

The two squads last met in the second weekend of NESCAC play, and before we go any further, let’s first acknowledge the fact that this game has the potential to be COMPLETELY different from the first tilt. Back on January 16, when Tufts dominated then #25 Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak, a couple of things were different. Tufts was still an underdog, and at that time occupied the final spot in our Power Rankings. Nowadays the Jumbos come into the game playing much better ball and with a winning record. Point guard Tarik Smith ’17 was just beginning his transformation into dynamic scoring threat off the bench, and was in the midst of probably the best shooting stretch of his life. In 13 games since being removed from the starting five, Smith has averaged 13.8 PPG, as opposed to 6.0 PPG as a starter. Forward Connor Green ’16 hadn’t really gotten rolling yet. Since then he has scored 19 points or more six times in 10 games, and is coming off possibly his most impressive offensive performance of the season in his last game at Middlebury. Hunter Sabety ’17, even though he was ineffective on the boards, was his usual offensive presence inside offensively, tallying 14 points on 7-10 shooting, and defensively he had four blocks. It’s unclear whether Sabety, who’s been out since January 24 with a knee injury, will be able to take the floor on Saturday. Even if he does, what kind of shape will he be in? Jayde Dawson ’18 was still starting at point guard for Amherst. Reid Berman ’17 has since taken over and facilitated exceptionally well to the Amherst scorers.

The Lord Jeffs never held a lead in the last game between these two teams. The biggest issue was that Amherst simply didn’t shoot well, and Tufts was hot all game long. The Jeffs’ starters went just 7-28 (25 percent) from the field, and Jeff Racy ’17 was the only Amherst player who one could say had even a decent game offensively. Meanwhile, the Jumbos shot better than 50 percent from deep and 49.1 percent from the field, numbers well above what Tufts can usually do and below what Amherst usually allows, so expect some regression to the mean this time around.

Tufts X-factor: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17

Tom Palleschi '17 will have to play big against Amherst's post presence David George.
Tom Palleschi ’17 will have to play big against Amherst’s post presence David George.

As mentioned above, Sabety’s status is seriously in question. According to this Tufts Daily article, he has been cleared to return as of Tuesday, but it is unclear if he will play still. When healthy and at his best, Sabety is one of the most talented (and productive) players in the NESCAC. In his absence, tri-captain Tom Palleschi ’17 has emerged to make good on the promise he showed as a freshman two seasons ago. If Palleschi is alone in the front court he will have a tough time dealing with David George ’17, so the outcome of that battle could significantly impact the outcome of the game. Since January 24, Palleschi has taken on a much more of the offensive burden and is tallying 15.5 points per game on 47.2 percent (50-106) shooting, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. Tufts needs that kind of production and more from the lefty if they are going to dispose of Amherst once again. But, if the Jumbos can throw the Twin Towers out against a shallow Amherst front court then Tufts will have a significant advantage in this game.

Hunter Sabety '17 is one of the NESCAC's most feared player on either side of the court - but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Hunter Sabety ’17 is one of the NESCAC’s most feared player on either side of the court – but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Since losing Sabety in January, Tufts has gone 5-3. The wins have come against Connecticut College (7-16), Hamilton (14-10), Colby (13-11), UMass-Dartmouth (12-12) and Fitchburg St. (14-10). Tufts has one of the strongest strength of schedules in the Northeast according to the NCAA Regional Rankings, but none of their recent wins have come against stiff competition.

Amherst X-factor: Three-point Shooting

The biggest contributors to the Lord Jeffs’ long range game are Racy and Green. Racy is a pure shooter, who not long ago set the Amherst College record with 10 three pointers made in one game when he went 10-14 from deep off of the bench in a win over Conn. College. Green, meanwhile, shoots just under 40 percent from deep and has knocked down at least six three pointers in half of his last six games. In the Jeffs’ six losses this year, they have shot just 42-127 (33.1 percent) from deep, but they are a 37.0 percent shooting team on the season from three-point range. Amherst has attempted the second most three pointers in the NESCAC this season, and since they lack much of a scoring presence inside (though we’ve seen George turn it on for short spurts in the past), this team relies on making outside shots to stay in the game.

Three Questions

1. Who guards Connor Green?

There is a distinct possibility that Tufts plays zone to slow down Green as that was the defense they used Saturday against Bowdoin. However, if they go man, the honor will likely go to Ben Ferris ’15. Palleschi will likely be locked up with George down low, and if Sabety is active he could take on George while Palleschi slides over to cover Jacob Nabatoff ’17, who can take the ball away from the basket more than George can. Smith will probably come off the bench as he has been for awhile now but will still see most of the minutes defensively against Berman and Dawson. So either Ferris or Stephen Haladyna ’16 are the only ones left to match up with Green. Ferris has better strength than Haladyna, something that is necessary against the multi-faceted Green. This will be a tall order for whomever draws Green.

2. What does Tufts do when the shots stop falling?

As mentioned above, the Jumbos made better than one out of every two shots they took from beyond the arch last time these teams played, but they are a 31.5 percent three point shooting team on the season. So if they are forced to find other ways to score, they have two options. Smith will have to penetrate and dish to open shooters as well as his big men. Smith has the quickness advantage over both Berman and Dawson, so his driving ability will be key. Secondly, they will need to work inside-out at times. Amherst can throw another big body down there besides George in Eric Conklin ’17, but Conklin has much less experience than George and the Jeffs give up a lot on the offensive end with him on the floor. Whoever gets the ball with their back to the basket and Conklin on him will have to make plays either by scoring or drawing a double team and dishing.

3. Can David George make an impact on offense?

Frankly, George has been disappointing offensively this season. He’s made a moderate improvement in scoring, up from 11.2 points per 40 minutes to 16.1 in that regard, but there is so much more potential there. Sticking with the rate statistics, George had 4.1 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes in 2013-14, and this season has barely raised that number to 5.2 per 40 minutes. His field goal percentage has actually gotten slightly worse this season. George has made some improvements but with his size and athleticism he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. We mentioned above that Racy and Green from deep could be the X-factors that helps Amherst win this game, but over the course of the whole tournament it could be George that plays the biggest role if Amherst is to win its fourth straight NESCAC title.

What to Expect

Nothing close to last what happened last game. If this game is decided by more than 10 points I would be shocked. I do hope that Sabety can get on the floor, because it creates a lot more intrigue and he is fun to watch. If he does, for Tufts the question will be how quickly Sabety can shake off the rust and mesh well with Palleschi inside. Expect Smith to have some success attacking the lane off of the dribble, and a big game from Green on the other end. Despite the letdown last Sunday at Middlebury, Amherst still has arguably the best defense in the NESCAC and won’t allow Tufts to get near 80 points again, but I feel as though the Jumbos match up well with the Lord Jeffs. It will all come down to Tufts’ front court play. I’m expecting Sabety to see the court, but he won’t be 100 percent and his impact won’t be enough to bring home the victory. Lastly, the Amherst players know how to win and I’m sure that in their minds expect to return to the NCAA tournament, and the Lord Jeffs hold the advantage in the coaching department (just ask the Amherst broadcast team).

Prediction: Amherst 73 – Tufts 65

Traveling to Maine Carries Significant Risk: Stock Report 2/9

Malcolm Delpeche '17 flushed this one home as the Bobcats slipped by Hamilton on Saturday, Feb. 7.
Malcolm Delpeche ’17 flushed this one home as the Bobcats slipped by Hamilton 73-71 on Saturday, Feb. 7.

The Maine triumvirate of Colby, Bates and Bowdoin combined on the weekend to go 4-0 at home. Behind hot shooting from Ryan Jann ’16 who finished with 26 points, the Mules beat Middlebury for their first win without Chris Hudnut ’16. Then on Sunday Bowdoin blitzed their way to an easy win over the Panthers to drop Middlebury to 3-5 in the NESCAC.

Meanwhile, Bates’ vaunted home-court advantage once again took center stage as the Bobcats pulled out close wins over Williams and Hamilton. The wins bring the Bobcats’ home record to 12-0 and 6-0 in NESCAC play. While you have probably heard all about how Alumni Gym rattles opponents, Colby and Bowdoin also boast great home records. Colby is 7-2 overall and 2-2 in the NESCAC at home, and this season has seen a resurgence in student attendance in Waterville. Bowdoin does not have as many students at their games (though I am one of the proud few), but the Polar Bears are 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the NESCAC when they play in Brunswick.

Of the three losses between them, two of them came at the hands of one of the other with Colby beating Bowdoin in Brunswick in December and the Polar Bears returning the favor in Waterville a few weeks ago. So the only team that has managed to come from out of state and beat a Maine school is Williams which beat Colby on January 17.

Stock Up

Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)

As the only returning player from the All-NESCAC First Team, expectations were high for Swords coming into the season, but he has fallen short of them on the offensive end. Sunday was the Swords that Bowdoin fans were hoping for. The seven footer scored 20 points on 10-13 shooting, and at least five of his baskets came on dunks.  Swords attacked from the very beginning of the game, forcing Chris Churchill ’15 to pick up two early fouls. He was not afraid to put the ball on the floor and go to the hoop, something that he has been hesitant to do for long stretches this season. He also took it personal when he got called for an offensive charge drawn by Matt Daley ’16 and attacked Daley the next time he got the ball down low. It was only one game, but if Swords continues to play like he did on Sunday, Bowdoin will be difficult for teams to handle.

Shooting Guard Rick Naylor ’16 (Trinity)

Sometimes it is hard to pick out specific players on Trinity who are difference makers beyond Jaquann Starks ’16. That isn’t meant to insult the ability of anyone on the Bantam roster, but they are so balanced that picking out individuals is difficult. Naylor is certainly a role player averaging 5.8 PPG for the season, but he has come up big in recent weeks. First against Bowdoin he carried Trinity down the stretch on offense, and on Friday he helped Trinity outlast a determined Wesleyan squad. He went 5-6 from three on his way to a team high 17 points. On offense, Naylor is pretty much a straight shooter with 63 percent of his made shots coming from deep. In conference play he is shooting 54.5 percent from three, the second highest percentage in the league. On the other end, Naylor fits perfectly into the hard-nosed style Trinity plays. Despite averaging only 20.6 MPG, he has fouled out of four games so far this season, the fourth most in the NESCAC this season.

Guard Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)

Not that Green’s stock was necessarily low, but it has sky rocketed recently as the Lord Jeffs have started to look more like the perennial title contenders that we are used to seeing. Over the last four games, Green has scored at least 24 points three times and thrice snagged double digit rebounds. Last week we handicapped the Player of the Year race and Green came in with the fourth best odds to win the award. If we ranked these players again today Green would probably have the second best odds and the gap between Green and favorite Dan Wohl ’15 would be much smaller than it was then. Amherst is playing much better of late, blowing out some of the NESCAC’s bottom feeders and a couple tough Maine teams. It took awhile for Coach Dave Hixon to work out the rotation, but he seems to have found a serviceable point man in Reid Berman ’17 and a reliable bench scorer in Jeff Racy ’17. The Lord Jeffs are dangerous right now and Green is only elevating his game as the season goes on.

Stock Down

Hamilton’s Luck

Honestly, I feel terrible for the Continentals. They have played better than their 1-7 record would indicate. On Saturday Hamilton almost pulled off the upset at Bates. A layup from Joe Pucci ’18 put Hamilton up 71-66 with 1:36 to go, but Bates scored the final seven points to storm back for the win. For the Continentals, it was merely the latest close loss. Six of their seven losses in conference have been by single digits. It is a shame, too, because they play a fun, uptempo brand of basketball with an eclectic crew. Peter Kazickas ’15 is lights out shooting the ball, and he also rocks the best ‘mun’ (man bun. It is a hairstyle I swear) in the NESCAC. Ajani Santos ’16 has a nice post game, and Joseph Lin ’15 is one of the most clever players I have seen. Because of tie-breakers, Hamilton is already eliminated from the NESCAC tournament. We knew Hamilton would miss the transferred Matt Hart, but this group exceeded expectations even if the final records don’t show it.

Clarity

Remember when I said that this weekend was going to go a long way in figuring out the NESCAC picture? Yeah, well I lied about that. Going into next weekend, the number of scenarios that can end up happening are endless. Trinity will host a quarter-final game, Bates will host for sure as long as they win one of their games this weekend, and Amherst will host for sure if they win against Middlebury. If those three host, then the winner of Tufts-Bowdoin will host the fourth game. Unless Colby or Williams goes 2-0 on the weekend and Tufts beats Bowdoin, then the Ephs or Mules would host because they both own the tiebreaker over Tufts. If Colby, Williams and Tufts are all 6-4 then Williams would host because they went 2-0 against those teams, but if Bates loses both games then there could be a four-way tie…OK we give up. Personally I am rooting for the scenario where Bates and Amherst go winless for the weekend, Tufts beats Bowdoin, and Williams and Colby go 2-0. That would mean that all six of those teams would finish at 6-4.

Middlebury Defense

There were some questions about the quality of Middlebury’s competition at the beginning of the year, but nevertheless their domination was impressive enough for us to rank them at the top of our initial power rankings, and a big part of that decision was the Panthers’ commitment to defense. Coach Jeff Brown challenged his guys to be the best defense in the country this season, and for a good chunk of the year the Panthers were ranked in the top five nationally in field goal percentage defense. In Middlebury’s first 13 games, during which stretch they started 13-0, they allowed 70 points only twice and both were easy victories. In the subsequent 11 games, opponents have scored 70 points seven times and Middlebury has gone 7-5. This weekend Colby and Bowdoin combined to shoot 47.3 percent from the field against the Panthers. Even Jake Brown ’17, possibly the best perimeter defender in the NESCAC, struggled against the athletic Lucas Hausman ’16 on Sunday. If Middlebury is going to right the ship (and even make the NESCAC tournament), they will need to get back to playing good defense.

The Bantams Separate From the Chaos (Barely): Stock Report 1/2

Photo Courtesy of Trinity Athletics
Photo Courtesy of Trinity Athletics

Trinity now holds a game and a half lead over everybody in the NESCAC with a 6-1 conference record, but it took a late second half comeback against Bowdoin to first force overtime and then escape with the win. In what was a very entertaining back and forth game, the Polar Bears took a six-point lead on a John Swords ’15 layup with 5:40 left, but the Bantams battled back and took a one point lead on a huge Rick Naylor ’16 three. Bryan Hurley ’15 knotted things up at 62 all with a free throw and neither team was able to score again in regulation. In overtime Naylor scored four more points and Trinity hung on to win by one. Naylor finished with 16 points and Ed Ogundeko ’15 had a double-double with 13 points and 12 rebounds.

The Bantams won a little more comfortably over Colby on Saturday to cement their status as the NESCAC frontrunners. That position is very tenuous because Tufts holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Trinity. Also, the Bantams have to go on the road for their final three conference games against Wesleyan, Conn College and Middlebury. Their offense is at best inconsistent, and every team they play feels like they have a good chance at winning so long as they make shots. That Trinity has also lost a couple of questionable midweek games also throws a damper on their NESCAC success. The Bantams have fought their way to the top, but the sifting sands of the conference landscape might not make that the place to be.

Stock Up

Point Guard Graham Safford ’15 (Bates)

Safford carried the Bobcats to a huge 2-0 weekend in Lewiston. Against Wesleyan on Friday night he scored 31 points, 22 of which came in the second half. He scored 18 of Bates’ final 31 points. Then Saturday he showed his ability to impact the game in so many ways despite having an awful day shooting the ball from the field going 1-11. He scored all 10 of his points in the second half, most of them foul shots down the stretch. Since he couldn’t hit shots, Safford made sure to get his teammates involved handing out 10 assists. He also upped the intensity on the other end finishing the game with a crazy seven steals. Conn College gave Bates a good battle, but Safford made sure that his team did not experience a let down game. A 2-0 weekend puts Bates right back into the thick of things near the top. They get to play Williams at home on Friday night, a big advantage for them. So long as Safford is healthy, his ability will keep Bates in every game they play.

Amherst Perimeter Players

Cheating a little here because Connor Green ’16 is really a forward, but he does a lot of work around the perimeter as well. One of the Amherst student announcers compared Green to Carmelo Anthony, a very apt comparison because both can get outrageously hot from deep but also like to be physical and get to the rim. Obviously Green got hot this weekend, especially against Bowdoin where he buried the Polar Bears with a flurry of three pointers. Reid Berman ’17 did not score a point all weekend, but he also handed out 21 assists, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 returned to his early season form averaging 15.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG and 3.5 BPG. Coming into the season Amherst appeared to have a bevy of frontcourt players and a lot of question marks in the backcourt. Now, including Jeff Racy ’17 and Michael Riopel ’18, there is a plethora of players making an impact on the perimeter. In order to make space for everyone, Coach Dave Hixon is going back to a guard-heavy lineup and using Green as a small ball power forward for long stretches.

Small Forward Joe Edmonds ’16 (Wesleyan)

The Oklahoma City native had by far his best weekend of the season, and he came up huge on Saturday to get Wesleyan a much needed win at Tufts. He led Wesleyan with 18 points, four assists and four rebounds. Edmonds has been somewhat of a catalyst for Wesleyan. In the three Cardinal conference wins Edmonds is averaging 14.0 points, and in their losses he is averaging 8.0 points. He did a good job of attacking the basket against Tufts with Hunter Sabety ’17 out with an injury. Do not sleep on the Cardinals who came very close to completing a 2-0 weekend against Bates and Tufts. Many probably wrote them off when Middlebury tore them apart a few weeks ago, but this is a resilient team. At the very least, they are a team capable of giving everybody in the NESCAC a big scare.

Stock Down

Middlebury Depth

After a lot of tinkering, Coach Jeff Brown was finally able to employ the starting five that most fans envisioned on Sunday in Jake Brown ’17, Matt St. Amour’17, Hunter Merryman ’15, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Matt Daley ’16. Daley is finally delivering on his mountains of promise, and if (a huge if for him) he can stay healthy then he gives Midd a true big man in the middle. His emergence comes as many of the Panthers bench players slide into the background. Connor Huff ’16 will reinvent himself as an energy guy off the bench, but he might work better as a player with stars around him. Dean Brierley ’15 and Bryan Jones ’17 will see time at guard, but neither of them really scares teams. Not a single freshmen even saw the floor against Hamilton, though Nick Tarantino ’18 and Jack Daly ’18 have shown flashes of strong play this season. The Panthers starting five scored all but five of Middlebury’s points against Hamilton. Middlebury loves to push the pace and they are best when they rotate guys in and out, but they seem overly reliant on their stars right now.

Colby

Really a tough weekend for Colby because they had to face their two toughest road opponents without their star Chris Hudnut ’16, who was out with an injury. The Mules rely on Hudnut so much on the boards and in the paint that it likely would have taken a near perfect performance from every one of their remaining players to pull out a victory against either Amherst or Trinity. The severity of the injury to Hudnut is still unclear, but the Mules will not be able to survive a prolonged absence from him. Two weeks ago the Mules were 3-1 and seemed to be coming together. Now at 3-4 it is possible they miss the NESCAC tournament all together. This season, one injury, one bad weekend can ruin your season. On the flip side, the Mules could rebound quickly and get back on track.

Small Forward Stephen Haladyna ’16 (Tufts)

Lost in the hubbub around the Jumbos strong start in conference was the continued struggles of Haladyna. The second leading scorer on Tufts last season, the junior lost his starting spot in the lineup halfway through the season and has done little to justify getting it back. Then he had a nice game Friday against Conn College going 3-3 from three, his best shooting performance of the year. That made his subsequent goose egg on 0-5 shooting Saturday all the more frustrating. Haladyna is in a year long shooting slump making an abysmal 24.1 percent from three. Never a great playmaker for others, he is also now not getting a lot of rebounds which means he is struggling to contribute in any fashion. Other players have stepped up and helped Tufts manage his decline, but it looks close to a lost season for Haladyna.

Friday Recap and Saturday/Sunday Preview

Reaction to Friday’s Games

Will the Real Middlebury Please Stand Up?

You’re killing me, guys. A 9-0 start, an 0-2 start to conference play including a blowout loss to Tufts, an absolute dismantling of Wesleyan, just scraping by with a win against the conference’s only remaining winless team, and now another blowout loss to the Ephs. I was starting to think that the Tufts and Conn. games could be chalked up to having to play on Sunday and maybe that’s where Middlebury’s struggles were based, but there was no excuse for this one. Nearly a full week of rest and preparation and the Panthers just fell flat. And the game was never really close. Middlebury had the lead for all of one possession of the ball game before Williams stole it away for good with a Dan Aronowitz ’17 trey with 19:11 to go in the first half.

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Obviously, I’m closer to the Middlebury team than any other in the NESCAC, and so I still have hope for this season because I understand why they’ve had some of their struggles. Matt St. Amour ’17 returned tonight but likely wasn’t at full strength and showed some rust from the three-point line, going 0-4. Captain Dean Brierley ’15, who has filled in in the starting lineup the last three games, is a capable shooter himself but St. Amour has a more dynamic offensive game when he’s good and healthy. The performance from Matt Daley ’16 was certainly promising. It’s been a month now since the athletic big man has returned to action but Coach Jeff Brown has been working him into the rotation slowly. For what reason, we don’t know. Perhaps to teach Daley a lesson or simply because Nick Tarantino ’18 had been playing consistently. However, a near double-double from Daley in just 21 minutes (a season high) might inspire Coach Brown to let Daley loose a bit more going forward. It’s worth the chance because obviously this team is not in a place right now where it can compete for the NESCAC title, and Daley could be an X-factor down the stretch. Last but not least, it was just an uncharacteristic night for Middlebury as they shot poorly from everywhere on the floor and they allowed the Ephs to shoot over 50 percent from the floor. On the season Middlebury opponents were shooting under 37 percent from the field before this game. Maybe the sloppy performance has something to do with the fact that J-term just ended for the Middlebury team. Perhaps they felt that little bit of fatigue mixed with relief that always comes with passing in a final paper or taking that final exam. But they will need to overcome distractions much more serious than that if they are going to win the NESCAC this season.

The PG Battle in Amherst is Over

Reid Berman ’17 is the real deal. I talked in the Friday Preview about how Berman was a pass-first point guard who could really grab hold of the starting job with a good performance on Friday night. Berman did pretty much exactly what he was supposed to do, dishing out 13 assists. And as advertised, he didn’t look to shoot much, only taking five shots (missing them all). Of course, Berman is not a polished product. Zero percent from the floor isn’t a good stat, no matter how many assists you tally, and he also turned the ball over six times, but he seems to be a good fit on a team with three starters who can knock down a lot of trey balls.

All Hail the Bantams

For at least one day, Trinity is the undisputed king of the ‘CAC. I doubted the Bantams going into this one, thinking that John Swords ’15 would force Trinity to take a lot of threes and I didn’t think a lot of those threes would go in. Well, I was half right. Trinity attempted 26 threes, just three short of a season high, but they were able to sink 11 of them (42.3 percent). Rick Naylor ’16 was the hero for the Bantams, scoring seven straight points, including a three at the end of regulation and four points to open the overtime period, to help clinch the victory.

Rick Naylor '16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Rick Naylor ’16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Defense was the story of the night. Shot clock violations played into the narrative on both sides. Trinity forced one near the end of regulation and Bowdoin caused their own with five seconds left in overtime, but was unable to get a clean shot for the win and Bryan Hurley’s ’15 desperation three was no good as the buzzer sounded.

Ed Ogundeko ’17 continues to be a beast on the boards for Trinity. The 6’6″ forward snagged another 12 rebounds and still leads the NESCAC in rebounds per conference game despite coming off of the bench and only playing 20.5 minutes per conference game.

If there’s a downside to the Bantams thrilling victory, it might be that this game would suggest that Trinity needs an uncharacteristically efficient shooting night in order to beat the NESCAC’s best. But this is just one game, so let’s not jump to conclusions. Instead, let’s let the Bantams enjoy their time atop the heap. If we’ve learned anything in the NESCAC this season it is that no one is safe, so don’t get too comfortable up there.

Saturday/Sunday Preview

Players to Watch

1. Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton)

Hamilton has given Middlebury a tough time in these teams’ last two matchups, Middlebury is going to be angry and Lin and Co. got Friday off so they’re going to be fresh. The student body is on vacation in Middlebury so it won’t be a particularly boisterous crowd, and I think that could benefit Lin, who had his worst conference game so far in the Hamilton win over Williams last week. I think Lin bounces back despite Middlebury’s tough defense. This is somewhat of a gut call, but if there’s one reason that I think Lin could have a big game it’s simply that I don’t see anyone else in the Hamilton starting five drawing a favorable matchup. Not that Lin vs. Jake Brown ’17 is an easy assignment for Lin to score on, but I think the Continentals lean heavily on the senior guard in this one and that he rises to the occasion.

2. Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)

Last night Swords was more active and engaged on the offensive end than he has looked in a lot of games recently shooting it 13 times, a season high. Unfortunately he made only six, a terrible night considering his usual shooting percentages. Still, the Polar Bears would be happy to have Swords shoot so often every game. How Swords’ minutes get managed today will be fascinating to watch. He played a season high 41 minutes against Trinity, a very physical team. Bowdoin does not really have another player who can keep David George ’17 off of the offensive boards for Amherst so they are going to need their big guy to play a lot. Whether Swords is physically up for it is a big question. If he is not then the Polar Bears will need to dig deep if they want to avoid an 0-2 weekend.

3. Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 (Wesleyan)

Like Wesleyan as a team, at times Rafferty looks like one of the finer guards in the conference who is especially lethal from downtown. Then he also has games where he struggles to find his rhythm. Yesterday, Rafferty came off the bench, something he has done a couple of other times only to return to the starting lineup the next game. He played well coming off the pine with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists. That was not enough for Wesleyan to overcome a huge night from Graham Safford ’15. Rafferty has become more of a straight scorer this year, so making him the primary scorer off the bench is not actually a crazy idea. He and Tarik Smith ’17 could end up locking horns on both ends of the floor if both of them come off the bench. That two guards so talented are both filling a reserve role makes for an interesting storyline to watch today.

Game of the Day: Bowdoin (13-5, 4-2) at Amherst (13-5, 3-3), 3:00 PM

I get the feeling that this will be the closest of the five games to be played today and tomorrow. After Bowdoin lost the nail-biter with Trinity yesterday this game took on a lot more meaning for the Polar Bears, who could go from potential number one seed to middle of the pack over the course of two days if they lose to the Lord Jeffs. As mentioned above, the Swords-George matchup should be a good one, but the most interesting battles to watch will not be when the ball is in either player’s hands, but rather the fights for rebounds. Both players are defense-first and are top five in both rebound and blocks per game. Offensively, both players are very efficient, so something will have to give in this matchup.

Amherst’s biggest challenge will be stopping explosive guard Lucas Hausman ’16. The kid just keeps getting better and does most of his damage inside the arc or at the free throw line. The Lord Jeffs have had some difficult stopping guard penetration this season and have committed the third-most personal fouls per game in the NESCAC. Those two factors combined could mean a lot of trips to the line for Hausman, a 91.1 percent free throw shooter who went 13-13 from the stripe against Trinity last night. We will see some combination of Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 lined up with Hausman. Whether either player can slow down the Bowdoin scoring machine could be the difference in this game.

Lucas Hausman '16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)
Lucas Hausman ’16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)

Another interesting matchup occurs at the point guard position, where both teams employ Rajon Rondo-like playmakers. Hurley and Berman are both looking to pass first, the latter almost to a fault, so it should be fun watching them attack one another possession after possession. Hurley obviously gives up some size to Berman, but that shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage in this game seeing as Berman is unlikely to rise and fire, meaning that Hurley could have one of his best defensive games of the season today.

I missed on my prediction yesterday when I stated that Bowdoin would win by 10 over the Bantams, and today I’m going to have to pick against the Polar Bears. Especially given Amherst’s home court advantage, I think the Lord Jeffs win on a couple late free throws by Green. Keep in mind, though, that Amherst lacks a dead eye free throw shooter like Hausman. Green is the best from the stripe and he is shooting under 75 percent. I think he comes up clutch today, but the opportunity is there for Bowdoin to foul early and capitalize on some missed front ends of a one-and-one. Nevertheless, the pick is in: Amherst by five.

Enjoy all the games today.

Clash of the Titans: Friday 1/30 Preview

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 returned in a big way against Hamilton last week, going 7-10 from deep in a Williams loss. Rooke-Ley and the Ephs welcome the Middlebury Panthers into Chandler Gymnasium tonight. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 returned in a big way against Hamilton last week, going 7-10 from deep in a Williams loss. Rooke-Ley and the Ephs welcome the Middlebury Panthers into Chandler Gymnasium tonight. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

We are just a few hours away from a full slate of Friday night NESCAC action. The top two teams in the conference meet in Hartford tonight, but every game is important and will have conference implications. Because of the driving snowstorms around the northeast, no team in action tonight has played since last weekend. Hamilton was the only team able to get any games in this week, but they are off until Sunday when they will travel to Middlebury (an exciting matchup given the upset that Hamilton pulled in the regular season last year).

Players to Watch Tonight

1. Forward Jacob Nabatoff ’17 (Amherst)

Nabatoff has seen his numbers wax and wane this season. He was playing 30 minutes or more for a period but as other players like Eric Conklin ’16 have returned from injury, he has played less in recent weeks. Nabatoff can be a frustrating player for Amherst fans to watch because he has the size at 6’8″ and skill to be a very productive player. But he is still a young player and he barely played last season so he is inconsistent. Colby’s defensive woes are well-documented, so Nabatoff could have a solid game tonight against the Mules.

2. Guard Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst)

Not to load up on Amherst sophomores, but in case you missed it, Berman has stolen the starting point guard role away from transfer Jayde Dawson ’18. Whether this move becomes permanent remains to be seen, but Berman has had two solid games in a row. The youngster is a pass-first type, who racked up 12 assists against just two turnovers combined against Williams and Trinity. Dawson’s minutes have shrunk in the last few games with Berman’s emergence, and with another solid game the sophomore could solidify his place as the starter.

3. Guard Matt St. Amour ’17 (Middlebury)

The Vermont native has been out since January 18 when he suffered an ugly-looking ankle sprain against Conn. College at home late in the game. The sprain wasn’t as bad as it looked, and St. Amour was able to limp to the locker room after the game, but it did keep him off the court for two games, and likely would have held him out on Tuesday if the snow hadn’t caused a postponement of Middlebury’s game against Lyndon St. The sharpshooter’s return will be huge for the Panthers this weekend. St. Amour has been a much better player this year than in his freshman campaign which is all the more impressive given that he had to recover from a torn ACL in the offseason. Williams’ opponents have jacked up 393 treys on the season already, third most in the NESCAC. If the shots are there for St. Amour, he’s going to take them. He’s been more effective getting to the lane so far this season (45.5 percent from the field) than shooting from deep (24.6 percent from 3PT), but this could be the game where he gets his long distance stroke going. As for the ankle, St. Amour isn’t showing any signs of it bothering him, but these things do linger so if he comes up gingerly at any point during the game, we’ll know why.

Game of the Night

Bowdoin (13-4, 4-1) at Trinity (14-5, 4-1)

John Swords '15 was the only player for either side in double figures in last year's game against Trinity. The big man had 11 points, six boards and four blocks in the Bowdoin win. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 was the only player for either side in double figures in last year’s game against Trinity. The big man had 11 points, six boards and four blocks in the Bowdoin win. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

If you like high-scoring basketball, I’d look elsewhere. Last year’s matchup ended 46-39 in favor of Bowdoin. Only one player ended up in double figures. Bowdoin’s 46 points were the lowest in a Polar Bear victory since 1949. However, if you’re a NESCAC fan (or player) this game holds a lot of meaning.

Who had this late January game pegged as a matchup of conference leaders? Not me, although I have said all year that Bowdoin would be in the running for a conference title (though with the losses of Neil Fuller ’17 and Keegan Pieri ’15 I’m a little less confident nowadays), but I never thought that Trinity would find the offense to win four of their first five conference games.

Well, turns out, they really haven’t, as they rank ninth in the league in points per conference game. But the defense has turned it up in big games, allowing three less points per conference game than overall. Maybe this is a result of Trinity taking air out of the ball, but the Bantams are going to have to score some points tonight against a Bowdoin team that seems to be getting hot offensively despite the injuries. Bryan Hurley ’15 and Lucas Hausman ’16 are one of the league’s best offensive backcourts and John Swords ’15 should be good for a few put-back buckets, though expect George Papadeas ’15 and Ed Ogundeko ’17, the NESCAC’s leading rebounder in conference games, to neutralize Swords offensively.

On the other end, Swords’ presence is the main reason why teams have shot 433 three pointers against Bowdoin this season, the most in the NESCAC. Wesleyan is next on that list. Cardinals’ opponents have shot 414 threes in one more game than Bowdoin has played. That means that the offensive pressure for Trinity lands mainly on the likes of Jaquann Starks ’16 (41.5 percent 3PT, 4.9 attempts per game), Chris Turnbull ’17 (35.9 percent 3PT, 2.6 attempts per game) and Andrew Hurd ’16 (31.2 percent 3PT, 2.5 attempts per game).

This is a difficult matchup for Trinity, and therefore I have to give the advantage to the Polar Bears. Prediction: Bowdoin by 10.

On the Road Again: Weekend Preview 1/23

The NESCAC schedule means that this is the weekend when teams play their usual travel partner. Because they have played all the same teams in conference thus far, we should have a good idea on how each team matches up with their opponent.

A big theme of the weekend is road favorites trying to avoid losing to home teams. The combined conference records of home teams this weekend is 5-12 while away teams are a combined 13-6. And remember that those records come against the same teams. Colby is the only home team with a winning record at 3-1 and are also the only home team that can be considered a favorite going into tomorrow. Winning on the road is not easy, but most gyms in the NESCAC do not offer a significant advantage as overall teams are 9-11 on the road this season.

Three Players to Watch

1. Power Forward Rashid Epps ’16 (Wesleyan): A tough start for Wesleyan in conference is in part because of Epps not producing. The junior has seen his playing time squeezed somewhat and he even got dropped from the starting lineup against Middebury. Epps has never been the primary scorer for Wesleyan, but the emergence of Joseph Kuo ’17 has pushed him into the third or fourth role offensively. However, the Cardinals are not a particularly dynamic offensive team, and Epps is far and away their most efficient scorer. Some of that efficiency is because he scores a lot on second chance points, but even last year when he was more of a focal point on offense, he shot 55 percent from the field. He is shooting one less shot per game and has averaged only 5.0 shots per game over the past five games. Wesleyan cannot afford to lose at Conn College. Make no mistake, even though the Camels are 0-4 in conference, they are playing decently and will beat somebody soon. They need to avoid taking too many threes and get Epps involved early.

2. Point Guard Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst): Though Berman has still yet to start a game for the Jeffs, more often than not he, rather than Jayde Dawson ’18, ends up being on the court to finish games. Dawson continues to show flashes of excellence, but Coach Dave Hixon does not trust him as a point guard. After two early turnovers, Dawson went to the bench midway through the first half and never returned. Berman is pass-first almost to a fault, but he came up huge down the stretch for Amherst against Williams scoring seven points. I know seven points might not sound like much, but before Wednesday, Berman had scored eight points total since the Christmas break despite playing significant minutes in every game. Seven points is a major breakthrough for him. Berman is not going to shoot from the outside (one made three all season), but he showed he can get into the lane and be a threat to score. That is really all he needs to be since he has proven that he is an excellent passer. We don’t know whether Hixon will put Dawson back in the starting lineup or commit to Berman completely, but at this point it appears Berman is the primary point guard for Amherst.

3. Forward Dan Aronowitz ’17 (Williams): I got to watch Aronowitz in person last Friday when Williams visited Bowdoin, and he was the only reason the halftime score wasn’t 50-10 Bowdoin. And it wasn’t just his 13 points at half that stood out but the different ways he was able to affect the game on both ends. Even though webcasts around the NESCAC are now very good, it is hard to understand how a player really works unless you see them in person, especially if you are sitting courtside. The sophomore is undersized playing a lot of minutes at power forward, but he has held up on the defensive end. He is the second option right now on offense and is shooting 39.7 percent from three for the year. The injury to Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 could have CRUSHED Williams, but they are treading water right now without him. Because of improvements from Aronowitz and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 amongst others, Williams is becoming that team nobody wants to play.

Three Games to Watch

 3. Saturday 3:00 PM: Bowdoin (12-4, 3-1) at Colby (11-6, 3-1)

A matchup of teams 3-1 in conference and the CBB rivalry makes this a wonderful undercard for the weekend. However, both teams’ conference records are inflated a bit by having already played Hamilton and Conn College, objectively the two worst teams in the NESCAC. Bowdoin’s win over Williams was a very good one, but since the Ephs were without Rooke-Ley, it still carries a little asterisk. The winner of this game will need only a couple more wins before they can think about a home NESCAC tournament game while the loser falls back to the pack with the toughest conference opponents still ahead of them.

John Swords '15 and Chris Hudnut '16 will clash once again this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 and Chris Hudnut ’16 will clash once again this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

The tough news for Bowdoin is that Keegan Pieri ’15 suffered his second concussion of the season on Wednesday night and is out for the foreseeable future. Concussions are obviously not something to mess around with and we wish Keegan the best of luck dealing with them. On the court, he is a massive loss given he is the second leading scorer and rebounder on the Polar Bears. John Swords ’15 will need to step up and be an offensive threat in the middle, something that he has not been for long stretches this season. Coach Tim Gilbride could fill Pieri’s place in the starting lineup in a couple of different ways including going small with guard Jake Donnelly ’16. Liam Farley ’18 should see an uptick in minutes because of the injury as well.

In the first game between these two teams Colby outplayed Bowdoin in the second half and managed to run away with it at the end. Bowdoin was simply unable to buy a basket from the outside going 2-15 from three. Bryan Hurley ’15 scored only two points in the game, but he is looking much more comfortable of late and has made multiple three pointers in each of his past five games. Bowdoin will have to adjust quickly to playing without Pieri who was the most capable guy on the team at creating his own shot.

For Colby, they know Chris Hudnut ’16 and Luke Westman ’16 will produce so it comes down to their other guys. Ryan Jann ’16 is a smooth shooter who makes one shot a game that you have no idea how he did it. Sam Willson ’16 played one of his worst games of the season the first time around, but he has been fantastic in conference averaging 14.0 PPG. The Mules need to also play Bowdoin to a standstill on the boards in order to keep the Polar Bears from getting easy buckets. These are two teams very familiar with each other so expect a close game.

2. Saturday 3:00 PM: Trinity (13-5, 3-1) at Amherst (12-4, 2-2)

Disregard the fact that Trinity lost a mid-week game once again to an opponent they should have beat while Amherst pulled out a big win against Williams in overtime. This game is almost a tossup.

The talent on the Amherst roster is undeniable, but for the first time in a long time Dave Hixon is unsure on how all the pieces best fit together. Nine players are averaging more than 10 minutes for Amherst. The last time the roster was so unsettled was the 2009-2010 season when Amherst had 11 players average more than 10 minutes per game (injuries to key players help explain the high number) as the Jeffs struggled to a 14-11 record, including 3-6 in conference. Connor Green ’16 is getting close to putting his stamp on this team as a leader with a 30-point performance Wednesday. The Jeffs need him to become their go-to guy, someone they can rely on to get easy offense. If that happens all the talent behind him can fall into manageable roles: e.g. David George ’17 as shot-blocker and rebounder, Jeff Racy ’17 as sniper from three, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 as a Swiss Army knife.

At this point everyone knows that Trinity is extremely talented defensively and relatively inept offensively. They can thank their defense for their 3-1 start in the NESCAC. Trinity is yet to have a NESCAC opponent score more than 60 points against them in regulation. On the other end, the polite way of putting it is that the Bantams are balanced, but a more realistic outlook is that they simply lack players capable of creating and making their own shots beyond, occasionally, Jaquann Starks ’16. Guys like Alex Conaway ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16, and George Papadeas ’15 are all capable of having good games, but they just are not reliant enough. The Bantams will want to make this game ugly, and there is a good chance they will succeed in doing just that against an Amherst team that tends to play to its competition.

1. Saturday 3:00 PM: Tufts (8-7, 3-0) at Bates (11-4, 1-2)

The road was not kind to Bates last weekend as they fell to Trinity and Amherst. Now they return to the comfy confines of Alumni Gym where five of their final seven conference games are at home. In fact, Bates’ only conference road games remaining are at Colby and Bowdoin so the Bobcats will not leave the state of Maine for the rest of the regular season.

Meanwhile Tufts continues to look better and better as we get further into conference play. Their win Thursday over UMass-Boston 80-67 saw them overcome 16 turnovers and four of their five starters scoring five points or less. Of course, it helps when your fifth starter, Hunter Sabety ’17 goes 9-9 shooting for 24 points. Even though Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18 have started recent games, Vincent Pace ’18 and Tarik Smith ’17 are the guys who do most of the backcourt scoring. The Jumbos are now above .500 for the first time all season. A win at Bates would cement their place at the top of the league with a good chance at going 7-0 before they play Williams in February.

Defensively Bates should match up well with Tufts because the Delpeche brothers can slow down Sabety and Tom Palleschi ’16. The Bobcats have to find a more consistent rhythm on offense, as they are averaging a NESCAC low 56.3 PPG in conference. Graham Safford ’15 has seen his scoring take a dive, and over on the D3Boards there are unsubstantiated rumors that he is playing injured. Safford is still playing heavy minutes and his backups, Jerome Darling ’17 and Justin Zukowski ’18, have played very sparingly. Safford has to be at or near his best for Bates who should be playing in front of a large home crowd tomorrow.

Kevin App Has Williams Prepared for NESCAC Play

Dan Wohl '15 has emerged as a star as Williams tries to keep the standard represented by the banners behind him. (Courtesy of WritingScots.Wordpress.Com
Dan Wohl ’15 has emerged as a star as Williams tries to keep the standard represented by the banners behind him. (Courtesy of WritingScots.Wordpress.Com)

Editors Note: Adam Lamont contributed to the Williams-Amherst preview

After starting the year with back-to-back losses in the first year of the Kevin App regime, the Ephs have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games. That one loss was to #7 WPI by only two points. Now that it has come time for conference play to begin we wanted to highlight what has gone well and what has not so far for Williams.

Successes

1. The senior leadership of Dan Wohl ’15, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, and Ryan Kilcullen ’15: All three players have been averaging double digits which is huge for what is a very young team that got hit hard from graduation losses and Duncan Robinson transferring to Michigan. Wohl has increased his points per game by about seven and his rebounds per game by two. He has been the go to guy all year for the Ephs. Rooke-Ley’s success at getting to the charity stripe and converting there has been well documented all season as he is shooting a remarkable 94.2 percent there on 81-86 attempts. Kilcullen has seen dramatic increases in all of his stats due to increased floor time by increasing his points per game and rebounds per game by five.

2. Defense: Despite losing a lot of big defenders, the Ephs have managed to keep their points per game allowed at basically the same level as last season. Yes, they are allowing 72.0 PPG, the highest mark in the NESCAC, and at a nearly 42 percent clip, but that is actually lower than last year when the Ephs allowed 72.8 PPG and still made the National Championship. Because of their personnel Williams is at a disadvantage rebounding the ball, but their defense has been good enough for them to win. If they can maintain this level, they should be fine because the offense is so good.

Failures

1. Depth: Coach App has heavily relied on six players to eat up most of the minutes and sparingly used his bench in non-conference play to date except to give guys very brief rests. Williams under Coach Maker last year had a similar rotation set up and it worked. It will be interesting to see how Coach App decides to go forward with his use of players in conference play.

2. Turnovers: The Ephs as a team are averaging about three more turnovers per game than last year. In their three losses this year, they are averaging close to 17 turnovers per game compared to around 12 in their victories. Even though most of the rotation handles the ball well, the Ephs can force the issue too much at times.

3. Field Goal Percentage: While the three point shooting percentage has increased this year, overall the field goal percentage is about six points lower than last year. The loss of Michael Mayer ’14 in the post has robbed Williams of high percentage shots inside. If the Ephs are going to be as successful as last year, they need to manufacture a way to get higher percentage shots in NESCAC play.

Weekend Outlook

The Ephs did not get any favors in the opening weekend of NESCAC play drawing the Trinity Bantams at home on Friday and the 18th-ranked Amherst Lord Jeffs at home on Saturday. Both teams should be competing for home games in the NESCAC playoffs.

Trinity presents an interesting challenge for the Ephs as they have a very tight defense that packs the paint and also forces a lot of steals. Williams has been turning the ball over heavily in their losses and if Trinity’s defense can knock it away from the Ephs, I think the Ephs need to watch out. This game is a battle of styles as Trinity wants to slow the game and make it a grind while Williams prefers a more wide open flowing game. Interesting to see if the Ephs are caught looking ahead to the marquee matchup vs. Amherst and possibly have a slip up against Trinity.

Now to the game the whole league is looking at, Amherst vs. Williams. These two teams had great battles last year both in the NESCAC and NCAA tournament and all NESCAC fans are lucky that we get to see these two heavyweights go at it in the first conference weekend. Both teams came into the year with lofty expectations (perhaps too lofty) after making it to the Final Four but have underperformed relative to them. The massive losses of talent on both teams has hit them hard.

For the Ephs it starts with the captain Wohl. He is the go to guy for them and he’s still improving. He has scored more than 20 points in each of the last four games. If the Ephs are going to win, it rests on his shoulders along with fellow sharpshooter Rooke-Ley. They have relied on both these guys all season so expect the same to happen against Amherst. Although the Ephs defense has been performing at the same level as last year, it’s still currently the worst ranked defense by points per game. Their defense could be a huge issue as Amherst has numerous threats on the court led by stud newcomer Johnny McCarthy ’15.

Williams will be playing with a huge disadvantage in size against Amherst. The Lord Jeffs have so many talented big men like 6’8″ David George ’17 and 6’8″ Jacob Nabatoff ’17 that Coach Dave Hixon has changed his rotation and kept two big men on the court at most times. The Ephs already struggle on the boards, and the Jeffs are formidable all across their lineup in terms of height. Kilcullen needs to be able to at least slow down Amherst in the paint. App might have to resort to a zone in order to alleviate the height difference and force the Amherst guards to make shots from the outside.

Dan Aronowitz ’17 is the other crucial piece for Williams inside. He is an undersized power forward, yet he could present a major matchup problem for Amherst because of his ability to shoot from the outside and slash to the basket.

On the Amherst side, life after Aaron Toomey ’14 has not been completely smooth. The Jeffs have had to pull out a lot of close games in order to get to 8-2, but their win on Tuesday at #21 Eastern Connecticut gives the team a lot of confidence coming into the weekend. The point guard position is unsettled as neither transfer Jayde Dawson ’18 nor Reid Berman ’17 have really claimed the position. Though Dawson has started every game, he does not look comfortable running the offense and does not do a great job of getting others involved with only 2.4 assists per game. Berman is more reliable but defenses know he does not like to shoot and lay off of him. Toomey is back with the team as an assistant coach starting this weekend after an injury ended his season in Spain. Maybe his presence will help the point guard play.

The one upperclassman on Amherst, Connor Green ’16, has been a major disappointment to many. After he averaged 17.9 points in 2013-2014, we expected him to take another step and compete for the league lead in scoring. Instead, he has dropped down to 13.2 PPG and seen his shooting percentages take a dive. Green is taking harder shots and is only making 29.3 percent of his threes. Those feeling better about Williams than Amherst can point to the divergence in play between Green and Wohl as a major reason. The freshman McCarthy and Jeff Racy ’17 supply most of the outside shooting.

Though Hixon has started the same starting five every game, the Jeffs do not seem like a finished product. They certainly look physically like the best team in the NESCAC, but there has yet to be a game where they play like they are capable of. This Williams-Amherst game does not have the stars of last season, but the talent level on both rosters is still very high. It is still too early to know whether this is a crucial conference clash or merely one of the many steps in shuffling out the conference hierarchy. What we can be sure of is that as always, the two teams will bring us plenty of fun.

It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint: 10 Thoughts on the First Games

We wanted to wait until every team had played a game before giving our initial impressions on the first looks that we got of NESCAC teams. It was a whirlwind of a first round of games that played out in the only way we thought it could: unpredictably.

1. Long way to March: One of the things that we harped on consistently during football was how quickly the season goes. Every football game has enormous ramifications. Obviously the same is not true for basketball as teams have months to come together as a team and gel before the NESCAC season begins. Teams as we see them now are going to look very different in a couple of months. Freshmen who barely got off the bench so far will end up influencing the conference race down the stretch while upperclassmen just getting comfortable in their roles will blossom. Do not overreact to a small sample size. Of course, that does not mean there is nothing to takeaway from these games either.

2. Injuries matter…to a point: A major takeaway was that a host of players did not suit up. Hunter Sabety ’17 missed Tufts’ first game but returned last night. Patrick Stewart ’16 will miss significant amounts of time because of a back injury, and Ajani Santos ’16 is out for an undisclosed time with an injury. Those losses all showed in their teams performance somewhat. Yet Keegan Pieri ’15 did not play for Bowdoin last weekend and the Polar Bears barely missed a beat. Pieri will be back this weekend making Bowdoin that much more dangerous, but the lesson is that teams are constructed in different ways. While Bowdoin had the personnel to survive without one of their two returning starters, other teams felt the crunch.

3. Trinity is a big fat question mark: It was surprising to see Trinity give up 83 points in their first game, but anytime your opponent goes 13-27 from three you are going to give up a lot of points. The good news was Trinity still won the game and doubled up UMass Dartmouth on the boards. When Salem State put up 102 on Trinity on Sunday then eyebrows across the league were raised. Known for their suffocating defense, the Bantams allowed Salem State to shoot 56.9 percent from the field and got out-rebounded.  Trinity allowed only 61.4 points per game last year, and with everyone back their defense was supposed to be even better. They should be able to turn things around on that end, but they are not a team built to score 80 points a game so they need to improve sooner rather than later.

4. Losses hurt NCAA chances: On an individual level for each team these losses are not devastating if the teams can turn it around, but the NESCAC’s general struggles could hurt the league when the selection committee meets for the NCAA tournament. The NESCAC is generally a three bid league though it often only gets two teams into the tournament. Everyone knows how much talent left from the NESCAC so there is reason to believe that the league could be down this year. The NESCAC tournament champion gets an automatic bid. If the NESCAC continues to rack up out of conference losses that will make a NESCAC team more likely to be overlooked for an at-large bid.

5. Tufts is an enigma: For those who follow college football, the term Clemsoning is familiar. Clemson always seems to lose one game every season where they far outmatch their opponent in talent level but makes a host of mistakes to get upset. Over on the D3Boards, user lefrakenstein used the term “Tuftsing” to describe how it is almost predictable that the Jumbos are struggling out of the gate despite all of the talent on their roster. Now that they are 0-2, Tufts has to figure out how to put together all of their talent quicker than other teams. They begin conference play against Middlebury and Amherst and cannot afford to lose both of those games.

6. Williams lacks depth: The Ephs have been deeply reliant on their starting five to provide pretty much everything for them so far. Coach Kevin App did a better job last night of managing his players’ minutes, but that was not enough to stop SUNY Oneonta from mounting a large second half comeback that pushes Williams to 0-2. Ryan Kilcullen ’15 has averaged 35 minutes per game after being a secondary role player last year. The freshmen should develop and be able to give the perimeter players time to rest, but Kilcullen will need to play more than 30 minutes a game all season unless Edward Flynn ’16 can deliver on the promise he has shown. Depth is not everything (Amherst basically only played their starters down the stretch last year), but it sure helps.

7. Aaron Toomey’s absence looms large: Of course there was no question that Amherst was going to miss Toomey, one of the most decorated players in NESCAC history, but with Jayde Dawson ’17 transferring in from Division-I, the hope was that the team would adjust its style of play. Dawson struggled mightily in his first game and was benched down the stretch last night, but he should turn things around. Even then he is not the same type of player as Toomey. I did not realize it until I watched Toomey live, but he had this unbelievable skill of being in complete control of the game no matter the circumstances. Reid Berman ’17 looked much more confident than he did last year and was a major reason Amherst came back, but he still had three turnovers including one where the defender simply picked his pocket and scored a layup the other way.

8. Shooting is at a premium right now: One of the reasons for teams struggling to score is futility from the outside. More than half of NESCAC teams are making less than 30 percent of their threes. A lot of that is because the premier shooters in the NESCAC graduated. The top five players from last year in terms of three pointers made all departed from the NESCAC so don’t be shocked if long range shooting is down throughout the year. Percentages should tick up somewhat as players get more comfortable shooting in game conditions.

9. John Swords ’15 is amazing: The seven foot center went out and played what is at this point typical John Swords basketball, averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds on the weekend. Let us clarify that the concerns about his health were very real. Yet that did not affect him this weekend for a very simple reason. Swords got new shoes that he started using this weekend that made the pain in his legs go away. Mind you that these are not special shoes made to alleviate pain or something like that. They are simply new shoes. Swords felt completely confident in his ability to do whatever he normally does on a basketball court this weekend. That is great news for Bowdoin and terrible news for everybody else in the NESCAC.

10. A juggernaut could lurk: My bold prediction during the preseason was that every single team would lose two games in the NESCAC regular season. No regular season conference champion has had two losses since the crazy 2000-2001 season when five teams finished at 6-3 (Hamilton was not in the NESCAC yet). After seeing every team play I stand by that prediction for now. However, given how many injuries Middlebury had this weekend, the fact they still went 2-0 means they had the most impressive weekend of anyone. The Panthers played without Matt Daley ’16, a player many think could be All-NESCAC if he stays healthy. Jack Daly ’18 looks like an instant impact player who gives Middlebury plenty of depth in the backcourt. The Panthers lost a lot of talent,  but the assortment of pieces in Vermont could gel together quite nicely.