Matt St. Amour – Page 4 – Nothing But NESCAC

Home is Where the Heart Is: Middlebury Basketball Season Preview

Image result for middlebury basketball — Middlebury will look to recreate this picture in the 2016-2017 season.

Editor’s Note: While 99% of the work on these previews is done by the writers, the projected records for all NESCAC Men’s Basketball teams were decided upon by the editors collectively, not decisions of the writers themselves. So, if you want to be mad at someone about the record projections, be mad at us.

Writer’s’ Note: In the interest of full disclosure, I love Middlebury Basketball more than I do several of my relatives. I try my best to write every article without bias, but I may slip up. Feel free to let me know if I do!

Projected Record: 8-2

Middlebury enjoyed a return to glory in 2015-2016, winning the league championship just a year after failing to make the tournament. The Panthers overcame a slow start in non-conference games (they were just 6-6 entering NESCAC play) and an insanely uneven home/road split. The Panthers only played eight home games all of last season. Eight! They were home less than Lucas’ parents in Stranger Things. Anyway, the Panthers’ success was largely due to the stellar play of senior guards Matt St. Amour ‘17 and Jake Brown ‘17, as well as the emergence of junior forward Adisa Majors ‘18. Majors and St. Amour both mirrored the Panthers’ season: they struggled early in the year before turning it on in NESCAC play. St. Amour was honored with First Team All NESCAC and Second Team All Region hardware, while Majors was content to just get his job done with very little fanfare.

Luckily for the Panthers and unluckily for the rest of the league, the Panthers return nearly all of the team that came within two points of reaching the NCAA quarterfinals. Center Matt Daley was a force in the middle for the team when he was on the court, which was not extremely often, but his absence should open up minutes for talented young forwards Zach Baines ‘19 and Eric McCord ‘19, as well as freshman Matt Folger ‘20, who has impressed in training camp. Middlebury’s strength is of course in their backcourt, where tri-captains St. Amour, Brown and Jack Daly ‘18 bring leadership, experience, defensive intensity, scoring and really any other buzzword you can think of that a basketball team needs. The Panthers are both experienced and youthful, stout defensively and explosive on offense, and should enter the season as strong candidates to repeat as league champions.

2015-2016 Record: 18-11, 6-4, won the NESCAC Championship, lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament

Coach: Jeff Brown, 20th year, 309-185

Returning Starters:

Guard Matt St. Amour ‘17 (19.5 PPG, 5.2 REB/G, 2.3 A/G, 40.1% 3PT)

Guard Jake Brown ‘17 (10.0 PPG, 5.1 A/G, 1.6 STL/G)

Guard Jack Daly ‘18 (7.1 PPG, 4.8 A/G, 1.6 STL/G)

Forward Adisa Majors ‘18 (7.2 PPG, 3.8 REB/G, 55.4% FG)

Key Losses:

Forward Matt Daley ‘16 (11.7 PPG, 7.4 REB/G, 57.8% FG)

Forward Connor Huff ‘16 (4.7 PPG, 3.4 REB/G, 0.4 BLK/G)

Projected Starting Lineup:

Guard Jake Brown ‘17

Jake Brown ’17 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

For most of his career, Brown has been heavily underrated among NESCAC basketball analysts (us here at NbN included) due to his lack of scoring punch. An inconsistent jump shot kept Brown’s scoring numbers down, which often plays an unfortunately large role in determining postseason accolades in the NESCAC. But any observer of the Panthers over Brown’s career will know that his ferocious on ball defense and relentless pace have pushed the Panthers to become the explosive team they are today. There have been so many times where a team’s point guard has made a few nice plays, and Brown simply turns up the intensity and makes him look like Michael J Fox BEFORE he becomes the Wolf in Teen Wolf. Crucially, his fast pace and flashy style have not translated to an excessive amount of turnovers. His 2.6 A/TO ratio was among the best in the league, which is amazing considering the risks he takes with the ball. As you will learn from any five minute conversation with Brown, he needs to average 15 PPG and 6 assists to end the year with both 1000 points and the Middlebury assists record. If he can improve his jumpshot even further, driving lanes with open up for him as defense have to play him further out. Combine this with an increase in scoring chances due to the departure of Matt Daley, and those statistics are not out of the running. And neither is his long sought after NESCAC First Team Appearance.

Guard Matt St. Amour ‘17

Matt St. Amour ’17 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Quick story about Matt St. Amour: His and my respective small Vermont high schools played each other twice a year during our careers. We weren’t exactly rivals on the court (he scored over 2,000 points and I think my grand total added up to somewhere in the 30-35 range) but I always secretly enjoyed watching him, even though he had a tendency to light us up. During our senior years, my high school was enjoying a pretty solid season, while Matt’s team was riding entirely on his shoulders. We entered our game against them with total confidence that we would win. Matt tossed up a triple double with a stat line of 43-12-15 and 6 steals. And those numbers don’t even do justice to how well he shot in that game: he was throwing up shot from the top row of the bleachers and finding nothing but the net. We did not win, but we did all leave with tremendous respect for Matt St. Amour. NESCAC teams probably left last season with a similar feeling, as St. Amour averaged nearly 20 points per game, to go along with five rebounds, three assists and a league leading 2.1 steals per game. He gained a reputation as something of a streaky shooter from inside the arc, shooting only 40% from the field, but from three he was deadly at 41%. And to go beyond those numbers, he was very rarely open as the only true outside threat on the court for Middlebury. Many of his shots were heavily contested, and he showed a definite knack for making the play that turns out to win the game (or literally does, as his buzzer beater against Skidmore shows.) St. Amour belongs on a very short list for POY contenders, and I like to think that he warmed up for it by lighting up the Middlebury Tigers. You’re welcome, Matt.

Guard Jack Daly ‘18

Jack Daly ’18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Rounding out the trio of guards is Jack Daly. This is going to sound like I’m plagiarizing Dick Vitale when he talks about any Duke players, but Daly is truly one of the toughest, smartest guards in the league, and one of the strongest with the ball as well. Armed with an ugly (but more effective than it looks) jumpshot and a variety of tricky change-of-pace moves with the ball, Daly proved himself towards the end of the season to be effective at getting into the paint and drawing fouls or dishing out assists. He also drastically improved his finishing at the rim over the course of last season, shooting 44.5% from the field, pretty good for a guard who struggled to hit outside shots. Daly’s greatest asset to Middlebury, however, is his rebounding. He averaged 5.8 rebounds per game during the regular season, and ten per game during Middlebury’s final four playoff games (the two NESCAC tournament games and then the two in the NCAA’s.) Daly’s prowess on the boards is what allows the Panthers to get away with starting three guards, two of whom are not tremendous outside threats. Daly can play much larger than his size on defense and run the offense to perfection, making him possibly the most valuable player on the team.

Forward Zach Baines ‘19

Zach Baines ’19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

I’m going to talk more about Baines in the next session of this preview, but here’s the lowdown: Baines has the potential this season to be one of the most destructive defensive forces in the league. Middlebury plays frantic defense that is predicated on the three guards pressuring intensely on the perimeter. A side effect of this style is that it can lead to guards breaking the pressure and getting to the basket. That’s where Baines comes in. His wingspan, athleticism and timing make him a deadly rim protector for the Panthers, which is an area that they have struggled in ever since the graduation of Ryan Sharry in 2011. He is also quick enough to switch onto guards on the pick and roll, making him a deadly defensive weapon. He is no slouch offensively either, but I will discuss that more below.

Forward Adisa Majors ‘18

Adisa Majors ’18 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

At the beginning of last season, Majors was solidly glued to the to back end of the rotation. By the end of the season he was throwing up 15-10 in NESCAC playoff games and basically just bullying smaller chumps in the post a la Boogie Cousins. What happened in that space in between? Firstly, Majors quite literally worked his butt off. He didn’t lose any strength, which is the key to his game, but his physical condition improved to the point that he could chase every rebound with tremendous abandon. Secondly, he got a little lucky. Several of the forwards who began the season ahead of him on the depth chart, such as Nick Tarantino ‘18 and Eric McCord ‘20, played inconsistently enough that Majors simply ate up their playing time. Matt Daley also missed some time, giving Majors his original chance to start. Majors’s game can best described as “delicate chaos.” He careens around the paint like a bull sometimes, leaving bodies of his teammates and opponents alike in his wake. However, he also has a soft touch around the rim and from the line, shooting foul shots at a 75% clip. The center position may be something of a revolving door for the Panthers, as McCord, Tarantino and talented freshman Matt Folger will all push for minutes. But for now, Majors holds down the fort.

Breakout Player: Forward Zach Baines ‘18

As I mentioned above, Baines belongs high on the list of preseason contenders for Defensive Player of the Year. But all this hype about his defense shouldn’t have the effect of discounting his offensive potential. In addition to being a real threat to dunk on someone every time he gets in the paint, Baines has a very soft touch from about 15 feet and in. He shot 46.4 % from the floor last year, and his jumping ability allows him to get off shots in the paint that other players simply cannot. He also has good mechanics on his shooting stroke, suggesting that a more consistent jumpshot is in his future. If he can make steps in that direction this year, a stat line of 15/10/3 blocks and 50% shooting is a very real possibility for Baines, and that would put him squarely in the conversation for Player of the Year.

Everything Else:

Between St. Amour, Brown and Daly, Middlebury has the best backcourt we’ve seen in recent NESCAC memory. However, one thing they do not provide in spades is outside shooting. St. Amour is obviously deadly, but neither Brown nor Daly is much of a three point threat. This is what makes Middlebury’s second unit guards so important. Sophomore Hilal Dahleh ‘19 has a sweet left handed stroke and showed excellent composure off the bench last season. He will need to be a major offensive weapon off the bench, particularly from three, if the Panthers hope to repeat as champions and make a deep NCAA run. Senior Bryan Jones has shown himself to be capable of being a major offensive force, but he needs to be more conistant in order to really make a difference. There are two intruiging freshmen who could also provide some spacing for the Panthers in Matt Folger and Perry Delorenzo ‘20. Folger is a prototypical NESCAC stretch four, except for his height. At 6’8”, he has the size to eventually be an interior force as well as a good shooter. Delorenzo is true local; his mother is legendary field hockey coach at Middlebury Katherine Delorenzo, and he has a sweet shooting stroke. Jones and Delorenzo will jockey for playing time all season, with outside shooting being the main factor that sets one above the other.

As I mentioned earlier, the “center” position is something of an unknown for Middlebury following the departure of Matt Daley. Adisa Majors played very well at the end of last season, but it is very possible that he reached his ceiling in terms of offensive production. If so, that ceiling is considerably lower than that of Nick Tarantino ‘18 or Matt Folger ‘20, both of whom are more athletic and can stretch the floor with jump shots. It is quite possible that Middlebury’s best lineup next season will be a hyper small, poor man’s version of the Golden State Warriors famed “Lineup of Death.” This would feature the starting backcourt of Brown, Daly and St. Amour, with Dahleh using his length to guard a four and Baines roaming the paint as a hyper quick five. This would obviously sacrifice a lot in terms of size, but Daly and St. Amour are both excellent rebounders as guards, as is Baines at a forward. Every position could switch adequately on pick and rolls, and the speed and ball movement on offense would be beautiful to watch. Look for the Panthers to break out this lineup in order to counteract a lack of size in comparison to Amherst and Tufts.

Middlebury’s highly uneven home/road split from last season evens out this season, as the Panthers play 13 home games and 11 road ones, rather than 9 and 15, like last season. This seems relevant, as Middlebury was 9-0 at home last season. The Panthers are a good team anywhere, but in front of the Pepin crowd they tend to reach another level. If they can play well enough during the regular season to host the NESCAC tournament, Middlebury fans could be in for a very long season, and I mean that in the best possible sense of that phrase.

The D3Hoops.com top 25 list was released last week, with Amherst opening the season at #1 and Tufts just behind them at number five. Middlebury is far down the list at #24, despite beating Amherst on the road in the NESCAC final last year. This is not an injustice per se. Amherst made the NCAA Final Four last season, and Tufts the Elite Eight. However, it does bring another example of Middlebury being slept on by the powers-that-be. Middlebury has the experience, drive and talent to end the season at number one on that poll, and no one should be surprised if they pull it off.

Cinderella’s Last Dance: Middlebury’s Season in Review

Matt St. Amour '17 lead Middlebury with 19.5 ppg this season, second-most in the NESCAC. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus) — Matt St. Amour ’17 lead Middlebury with 19.5 ppg this season, second-most in the NESCAC. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

Let’s begin at the beginning.

With the team’s top two scorers graduating from the season before, I figured that Middlebury might go through some transition time as it tried to discover its new identity. Expectations around the program were low considering the scoring exodus. Still, after a ninth-place finish in the NESCAC a season ago, and my perception that as talented as Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 were that they had a tendency to stall the offense, my sense was that there was nowhere to go but up, but in my most optimistic vision the Panthers were still packing it up after a loss in a road playoff game.

The season-opening loss to Baldwin Wallace wasn’t too upsetting. Baldwin was an 18-9 team a year ago and already had two games under its belt before meeting up with Middlebury. It was the six-point loss to lowly St. Lawrence the next night that got me worried. A week later, after getting a W against SUNY-New Paltz on a Tuesday, Middlebury faced its toughest early season opponent in then-No. 25 Oswego St. I was just hoping that the Panthers would be competitive. They were not, and lost 70-55. After a loss to Skidmore a week later that made Middlebury 3-5, with two of those wins against Johnson St., I was ready to throw in the towel. I knew it was a tough early season schedule, entirely on the road with two teams hovering near the bottom of the D3Hoops Top 25. Still, they gave me little reason to believe that a turnaround was imminent.

Apparently, all the Panthers needed to do was go home.

The next game was a 22-point win over Castleton St. Then the Panthers destroyed Plattsburgh St. 71-49, and that was the first real eye-opener. Plattsburgh finished the season ranked No. 23, and even though they weren’t ranked at the time, it was known that they were a solid team, and Middlebury blew them out. One of the Cardinals top guards was out, but that doesn’t make up for the 22-point beatdown that the Panthers laid on them. At tough battle on the road at Endicott, who finished 19-11 this year, was encouraging. Than another easy win against Southern Vermont (24-4). SVC is no team to scoff at, either. (If you don’t know about that program’s rise, you should check out how they got to where they are here.) They play an easy schedule, but they also just played Tufts to the buzzer, losing by two in the NCAA First Round.

Still, looking at the full body of work coming into conference play, Middlebury was 6-6, and they had yet to inspire a ton of confidence in anyone watching them. With the NESCAC opener set to take place against Wesleyan in early January, and the Cardinals’ BJ Davis ’16 suddenly looking like a POY candidate, Panthers’ fans weren’t feeling too great. Then Middlebury went on the road and absolutely ran away from Wesleyan in the second half after falling behind early. It wasn’t necessarily an aha! moment. The Panthers lost the next night at Conn College. From that point on, it was a constant struggle and battle to be consistent. Injuries and illness riddled the Middlebury roster throughout the season. Matt Daley ’16 was in and then out of the lineup, and at times looked like he was playing at 50 percent. The frontcourt was constantly rotating. Head Coach Jeff Brown couldn’t figure out whether his freshman trio was going to start or play 15 minutes or not play at all. The only guarantee all season long was the play of the starting backcourt. Matt St. Amour ’17, Jake Brown ’17 and Jack Daly ’18 started 86 of 87 possible games (the only one missed was Brown on Senior Night, when he came off the bench to play 34 minutes). The three could not complement each other any better, and with another year of growth ahead of them, the sky is the limit for the 2016-17 Panthers’ squad.

Highlight Moment: 81-79 win over Amherst in the NESCAC Championship, Sunday February 28

Feels great to be a champion ?

— JPD (@lildales5) February 28, 2016

The Panthers really backed their way into a NESCAC Tournament home game. Losing – badly – to Trinity and Amherst on the last weekend of conference play should have cost Middlebury that privilege, but Wesleyan had an even worse weekend, falling to Colby and Bowdoin. So, coming into the tournament, expectations remained low for the Panthers. Even if they got by Wesleyan, the thinking went, there was no way they could upset Trinity, who hosted the tournament, and beating Amherst was a pipe dream. Somehow, though, the stars aligned. Daley had the best weekend of his career against the Bantams and No Mascots. The big man had 34 points on 14-18 (77.8 percent) shooting, and most importantly was in the game for 27 and 28 minutes, providing an imposing post presence. It took a poorly-timed carry from Johnny McCarthy ’18 in transition to really put the nail in the coffin against Amherst, but whether it was the right call or not, Middlebury was cutting the nets moments later for the third time in program history, and the one that, though he wouldn’t admit, has to be particularly sweet for Jeff Brown. Not only was it a statement performance a year after missing the NESCAC Tournament, but coaching your own nephew to a conference title has to be pretty sweet.

Team MVP: PG Jake Brown

Matt St. Amour was the leading scorer, First-Team All-NESCAC honoree and First Team All-NbN recipient; Jack Daly emerged as a great perimeter defender; I will still maintain that Matt Daley is the most talented big man in the NESCAC and he played awesome at times; Adisa Majors ’18 stepped up and proved that he’s a viable starter in this league; but despite all of that, Jake Brown was the most valuable and important player for Middlebury this season. He’s the best point guard in the NESCAC. His game is not yet complete. He struggles from the free throw line, and I think he will still make an improvement from the three-point line next season, but everything else he does is elite. The ball handling wows spectators. The defense is tenacious and frustrating for opposing guards. The transition game is nearly flawless. And he got to a new level of swagger this season that made clear why he was elected a captain by his teammates. In the Panthers’ NCAA Second Round loss, it was Brown who nailed a clutch three-pointer to give them a chance on the final play in a one-possession game. If he continues to play like this, and even makes marginal improvements next season, it will be a shame if he isn’t recognized as a NESCAC First Teamer.

Biggest Surprise: The Emergence of Forward Adisa Majors

Majors came completely out of nowhere this season to become an interior force. As a freshman, the 6’5″ 210-pounder was sparsely used, only seeing limited action in 12 games. His skills and athleticism were both far off from allowing him to play a significant role. The one thing he had going for him was some natural size, but even that seemed to work against him as he lacked the quickness necessary to be effective.

All of that changed between last season and this. Majors’ game blossomed in every facet, and physically he transformed himself. Reportedly a health nut, Majors came into the season in fantastic shape and looking much stronger. He added a 15-foot jumper to his game. And the best part about watching him play is his energy. Majors has one of those motors that never stops. The big man finished the season as the team’s fifth-leading scorer at 7.2 ppg, but it was during a stretch of six NESCAC games in February – often without a healthy Matt Daley – that Majors proved he belonged, averaging 14.0 ppg while shooting 68.6 percent and grabbing 6.3 rpg.

Most Interesting Stat: Matt St. Amour, Jake Brown and Jack Daly finished the season first, second and third in the NESCAC in steals per game.

St. Amour paced the league with 1.8 steals per game, while Brown and Daly just eked by a couple of others who averaged, when rounded, 1.6 steals per game. Middlebury’s defense was tenacious, and more than anything it was just constant effort that lead to all of those steals. Credit needs to be given to the frontcourt, as well, for tipping post feeds that the guards were able to collect. St. Amour, Brown and Daly were also great at having active hands when sinking into the paint. Having this crew coming back gives Middlebury fans hope that the Panthers can once again be productive next year.

NCAA First Round Preview: #20 Tufts vs. Southern Vermont

Like many first round match ups, Southern Vermont and Tufts took very different roads to reach the NCAA tournament. Southern Vermont lost two of their first three games to Salisbury and St. Thomas (MN), both in the Hoopsville National Invitational Classic hosted by Stevenson University. Neither of these losses can be considered bad ones: Salisbury and St. Thomas are both tournament teams, and are ranked at #24 and #8 in the country, respectively. These two close losses actually seemed to help SVM, as the Mountaineers went 23-1 the rest of the way, including winning their last 16 games, all of which were against conference opponents. Sure, the NECC is not loaded with talent (no other NECC team received an NCAA bid), but conference games are conference games no matter how you slice it. SVM accumulated some quality wins against Regis and Becker en route to their conference tournament title, and also won a close game at Bates just before the winter break. I know Bates didn’t have a very good year, but no matter who you are, playing in that small gym is not easy thanks to the rowdy student section, so this is a good win. Unfortunately for SVM, the only three tournament teams they played are their three losses, with the third being Middlebury. When SVM visited the Panthers, Middlebury blew them out by 18 points. SVM couldn’t shut down Matt St. Amour ’17, and strong contributions from Matt Daley ’16 and Jack Daly ’18 helped to put away the Mountaineers early. With all this in mind, riding a 16-game win streak into the NCAA tournament is not something to turn your nose up at. After receiving two straight NECC Coach of the Year honors, SVM Head Coach Dan Engelstad has shown that he knows how to win. SVM doesn’t play down to their competition, evidenced by their average margin of victory of 17.1 ppg. I don’t care who they’ve played; SVM has showed they are dangerous.

On the other side of the court are the Tufts Jumbos. The Jumbos are a streaky team, so their loss last weekend to Amherst in the NESCAC semi-finals could be either good or bad. Following losses, the Jumbos have done won the following number of games before their next loss: one, eight, one, four, and four. This leaves it completely up for speculation what the Jumbos will do following this most recent loss. One thing Tufts has shown is that they do not lose two games in a row. Even after a poor game against Trinity at home, Tufts bounced back the next day and beat Amherst with relative ease. The tough schedule Tufts plays has battled tested them, and I think they’re in great shape to make a run in the tournament. The big wins for the Jumbos came against Amherst at home, and at two neutral sites against #11 Whitman and #16 Babson. In conference, Tufts beat every bottom half team, but lost to all four of the other top five teams, Trinity, Amherst, Middlebury and Wesleyan. Their other two losses were against solid teams in MIT and WPI, but WPI blew out the Jumbos by 15, accounting for Tufts’ worst loss of the season. One thing to take note of is that four of these losses, excluding Wesleyan and MIT, came against tournament teams, and two losses (Wesleyan and Middlebury) came in overtime. Tufts is a strong, strong team, and their six losses are deceiving because of the extremely tough schedule they play.

Despite their different paths to the big dance, these two teams are very evenly matched. They scored at about the same clip on nearly the same number of attempts: SVM 85.1 ppg on 65.4 FGA/game; Tufts 86.1 ppg on 65.3 FGA/game. They hit pretty evenly from deep too: SVM hits 8.0 3PT/game while Tufts drains 8.2 3PT/game, but SVM shoots a tad more consistently at 37.4 percent rather than Tufts’ 35.1 percent. Both teams rely on their rebounding, and are very even in this category as well: each team averages 12.7 offensive rpg, but SVM averages 43.0 overall rpg as opposed to Tufts’ 42.5 rpg. Clearly, the teams match up in a shooting and rebounding, so where do they differ? There is one main answer to that question: defense. While they score at about the same rate, Tufts allows 77.6 ppg vs. SVM’s 68.0 ppg. This makes the Tufts defense look much worse than SVM’s, but I think this gap can be attributed to the difference in strength of schedule. Since Tufts is playing better teams, it makes complete sense that they give up more points. I’m not saying SVM doesn’t play good defense, but there is certainly a difference in the level of competition day in and day out.

Southern Vermont X-factor: Forward Deshawn Hamlet ‘16

(Courtesy of Southern Vermont Athletics)

Deshawn Hamlet is hands down the best player on the Mountaineers roster. As a junior, Deshawn was the NECC player of the year, and he followed that up with First Team All-NECC recognition. Though the scoring is pretty spread out for Southern Vermont, this team thrives when Hamlet puts the ball in the basket. He has been held under 10 points just four times this season, and each of those times, Hamlet got into foul trouble. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding at 14.7 ppg and 8.2 rpg, each of which is driven by his strength and tenacity. Hamlet can shoot the ball from the perimeter pretty accurately, but he is very selective on his outside shots. Hamlet’s best when he uses his big body to power his way through smaller wings. At 6’4”, Hamlet is one of SVM’s tallest players, but he is very nimble for what I would guess is a 220-225ish lbs. forward (SVM’s website doesn’t list the weight of their players). Hamlet will likely be matched up with Stephen Haladyna ’16 or Vinny Pace ’18, which plays in his favor since these two are listed at just 180lbs. and 185lbs., respectively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more minutes out of Stefan Duvivier ’18 as a defensive stopper on Hamlet, as he is a much bigger yet extremely athletic wing. I’m excited to see what Coach Bob Sheldon does defensively to deal with Hamlet.

Tufts X-factor: Center Tom Palleschi ‘17

Like Hamlet, Palleschi was just named to his all-conference first team, and he is bound to have a big game for the Jumbos. There isn’t a player on the SVM roster listed over 6’6”, and on a short team I wouldn’t be surprised if Casey Hall ’16 was given the 6’6” listing out of generosity. Palleschi was on fire during the last six regular season games, and though he cooled off a bit in the NESCAC tournament, his presence alone is a huge advantage for the Jumbos. He averaged 18.7 ppg in the month of February, and with such a size advantage and the variety of post moves Palleschi has in his arsenal, he is either going to eat up his one-on-one matchup or he is going to open shooters up for wide open threes when SVM collapses into the paint. I don’t think Tufts needs Palleschi to score 15ish points to win, but it certainly bodes well for the home team if he does.

Three Questions

1.) Will SVM be able to stop Palleschi?

I could very well be wrong (I’ve never seen Southern Vermont play after all), but I don’t see any way that they stop Palleschi. He has shown over and over again that he is a dynamic scorer down low, especially against undersized centers. The big man struggles the most against Eric Conklin ’17-type post players, aka the very solid, very wide centers. To reiterate, I’ve never seen SVM play, and I could very well be underestimating the width of Casey Hall, but if I’m right, he looks like he’s a lankier center than he is a big bruiser. Palleschi should take advantage of this matchup, and he is a good enough passer that it should negate the effect of SVM doubling down on him.

2.) Who steps up as the secondary scorer for SVM?

Over the course of the season, Hall has been the secondary scorer behind Hamlet, but with Palleschi’s stifling defense down low, I am not quite sure he’ll be able to get his normal 10-12 points. I’m looking at Will Bromirski ’16 to step up for the Mountaineers. At just 5’11”, it could be tough for Bromirski to get his shots off against the taller wings of Tufts, but if Hamlet demands as much attention as I expect he will, Bromirski will be open to shoot from the perimeter.

3.) What will SVM do about Tufts’ fast pace?

I have to assume that SVM is a pretty fast-paced team based on their guard heavy lineup and lack of size. Coach Sheldon stressed to me that Tufts is still going to try to play their game: “We want to do what we’ve been doing all year. We’re not going to change for the NCAA tournament. We’re doing what got us here.” So basically, Tufts is still going to try to get out and run. If SVM can play solid transition defense, they can force Tufts into a half court offense, but that gives Palleschi more opportunities to work down low. I don’t know which SVM would prefer, speeding Tufts up or slowing them down. This strategy decision will likely decide the game for SVM.

Prediction

If Southern Vermont wants to win this one, they have to hope that they can find a way to slow down Palleschi. Make other people beat you, make Pace recreate his 33-point performance that he had last weekend when Palleschi struggled from the field, make Ryan Spadaford ’16 hit shots from deep, make Haladyna shoot 10 or 15 shots. The Mountaineers have to do something besides allow Tufts to pound the ball into the post. Deshawn Hamlet is also going to have to have a crazy game offensively. I expect him to score around 20 points, but SVM relies on a very balanced attack that I just don’t see scoring the ball like they did in conference play. Cousens Gym has gotten louder and louder as the year has gone on and the Jumbos have continued to win, and Tufts feeds off the energy of their crowd. I think Tufts is going to have a small lead going into halftime, but as the game wears on and Palleschi forces the Mountaineers into foul trouble, the Jumbos will have a good chance to run away with this one.

Prediction: Tufts 84 – Southern Vermont 72

Eye on Saturday

If Tufts wins this one like I think they will, they’re going to play the winner of Franklin & Marshall vs. Skidmore. At 18-8 in a relatively weak conference, it’s clear that Skidmore is in the tournament because they won their conference tournament. This is not to say that Skidmore doesn’t deserve to be here – they won the regular season in the Liberty League as well – but they have been inconsistent. They blew out Plattsburgh State and beat Middlebury by five, both of whom are tournament teams, but they have some bad losses. Franklin & Marshall also won their conference tournament, but at 22-5, they have showed that they know how to win just a bit better than Skidmore does. I think F&M is definitely a better and more consistent team, with a history of postseason success, but Skidmore has shown the ability to explode offensively, and I think that they’ll do that tonight and upset F&M.

This brings us to tomorrow. Skidmore is led by freshman phenom Edvinas Rupkus ’19, who is averaging 16.7 ppg from the guard spot. At 6’4”, 205 lbs., Rupkus could have a size advantage over some of the Tufts guards, but after dealing with Hamlet tonight, it might feel like Rupkus is actually a smaller guard. Skidmore has a couple big boys that measure in at 6’8”, but they don’t play very many minutes, and once again, I think Palleschi will have an opportunity to dominate inside. The ability of Tufts to knock down open shots on kick outs from Palleschi will determine the outcome of this one, but I’m expecting Tufts to move on to the Sweet 16 after a couple big wins at home. Maybe I’m a bit biased in favor of the NESCAC teams, but I keep coming back to the toughness of the Tufts schedule in giving them the edge. They have been tested, and I think that they’re ready to get a couple wins this weekend.

NCAA First Round Preview: Middlebury vs. #24 Salisbury

Here's an artsy photo of Jake Brown '17. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus) — Here’s an artsy photo of Jake Brown ’17. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

The Middlebury Panthers and Salisbury Sea Gulls are both dancing, but they got here in very different ways. Middlebury finished the season 17-10, and needed an incredible run through the NESCAC tournament to get into the NCAAs. Salisbury, on the other hand, fell in heartbreaking manner in the Capital Athletic Conference championship game against No. 4 Christopher Newport. The Sea Gulls (21-6, 13-5) beat just about everyone but CNU this season, losing to the CAC conference champs three times and twice in overtime, including in the championship. They didn’t think they’d be returning to the Little Dance, one year after making it and falling to Trinity in the Second Round, but the committee was kind and Salisbury is back.

Both teams’ seasons were on almost equivalent paths until the final minutes of their respective championship games. While a shocking carry call on Amherst’s Johnny McCarthy ’18 gave Middlebury the ball and essentially iced the game, an even more mind-blowing push call against Salisbury’s Kyle Savercool ’16 at the buzzer sounded sent CNU to the foul line for the win. Check out the video here, and you decide if Savercool (#15) shoved anyone.

Anyway, enough about how they got here. As Salisbury first year coach Andrew Sachs told me, “We are in [and] that’s all that matters.” Sachs comes to Salisbury, his alma mater, after six years at Bethany College and five at Holy Cross. As our loyal readers, you’ve heard plenty about what Middlebury can and can’t do, but you must be wondering just how good Salisbury is. That’s the beauty of D-III, that teams from outside of one’s region are often a complete mystery, and that can make for some pretty exciting games.

The first thing to know about the Sea Gulls is that their best player, Wyatt Smith, has been out all season with an injury. Smith was a 14.7 ppg forward last year, shooting at 58.6 percent and tearing down almost eight board per game, and had 37 points on 16-20 shooting last year in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to Sachs, Smith was indisputably the best player in the CAC. Whether that’s true or not, that assessment speaks to the accomplishment of Salisbury to get to this point without such an important player. In his place forward Gordon Jeter ’17, the team’s only All-CAC honoree, has emerged as the leading scorer, but even calling Jeter a forward is a bit misleading. The Sea Gulls have been outsized pretty much every game this year. Jeter stands at a slender 6’6″, 185 lbs, and is the team’s five-man, if you insist on putting a number on it. He’s very athletic and long, and is the focal point of the Sea Gulls’ offense via the pick and roll. More on that later.

The second thing to know about Salisbury is that they rank second in Division-III at 60.3 ppg allowed. Salisbury will try to break the rhythms of their opponents. They will press and play zone. And they will double everything in the post. And I mean everything. If Jeter has to play man one-on-one on Matt Daley ’16, this game is going to be over quick, so quick rotations are going to be incredibly important for Salisbury.

Salisbury X-factors: G Justin May ’16 and F Chad Barcikowski ’18

I’ll be honest, in my conversation with Coach Sachs, the names May and Barcikowski didn’t come up once. May has served as the team’s sixth man all year, playing 17.1 mpg and scoring 6.7 ppg. I don’t even know what his skill set is like. The same applies to Barcikowski, who’s playing 12.2 mpg and scoring 6.0 ppg. What I do know is that the Sea Gulls have played with an eight-man rotation all season, and now one of those eight, back up Jordan Brooks ’18, is out with an injury and won’t return unless Salisbury is able to make a deep run in the tournament. The Sea Gulls will need to get some quality minutes off of the bench. The saving grace is that they might be aided some by the media timeout structure of the NCAA Tournament – timeouts after 16, 12, eight and four minutes in each half.

Middlebury X-factor: C Matt Daley ’16

Here's a kind of blurry but still sweet photo of Matt Daley '16. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson) — Here’s a kind of blurry but still sweet photo of Matt Daley ’16. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)

Sorry, everyone, back to the well here, but honestly, if Daley goes to work this game is over. He’s got more height than anything Salisbury can throw at him, and not only can he put up double digit points, he might approach 10 assists if he can effectively pass out of those double teams in the post. Defensively, Daley will have to hedge aggressively when Jeter sets screens for the ball handler. And even against the press, Daley will be key because the Panthers will look to get the ball to him in the middle to break the pressure. Adisa Majors ’18 and Connor Huff ’16 will be just as important filling in that role when Daley takes a breather.

Three Questions

1. Will Salisbury get hot from deep?

The Sea Gulls shot 24.9 three pointers per game this season, right around 50th in the nation, making 9.0 per game, which ranks 48th in the country. They don’t necessarily live and die by the three, but everyone that steps on the court for them is a threat to shoot it. All five starters are in the 30-40 percent range, and May is just above 40 percent. Middlebury isn’t a big jump shooting team, and only Matt St. Amour ’17 can really get them back in a game if they fall behind, so an early barrage from Salisbury could make things difficult for the Panthers.

2. Who can take care of the ball?

As mentioned, Salisbury is great at stopping opposing offenses, and part of that is forcing turnovers, having caused 500 turnovers this season. The Panthers, with their reputation for harassing other NESCAC teams and getting steals, caused 401 turnovers. Coach Sachs is a terrific defensive coach. He’s had really good defensive teams in the past, leading the country in steals one year at Bethany. Still, Middlebury has Jake Brown ’17, whom Sachs believes is the best point guard Salisbury has faced all season. Will the Sea Gulls be able to rattle Brown?

3. Is the spotlight too big?

Middlebury assuaged my fears that they might shrink in the moment with their victory in the NESCAC tournament, but the NCAAs are, of course, a different animal. Salisbury has been here before, losing to Trinity in the Second Round a year ago. No one from Middlebury has played in the NCAA Tournament. The current seniors got to step on the court in the final seconds as North Central was laying the smack down in the Elite Eight in 2013, but that’s it. Now, it’s a neutral site, so the crowd won’t be a factor, but there’s no denying the added pressure of an NCAA Tournament game. On the flip side, for Middlebury, they weren’t even supposed to be here As Jack Daly ’18 put, “I feel like we’re playing with house money right now.”

Prediction

On paper, I think Middlebury has the upper hand. They have way more size, and I think their skill in transition bodes well for breaking the Salisbury press. Sure, the Sea Gulls are athletic 1-5 and can be difficult to cover, but there are no slow, lumbering bodies in the Middlebury rotation, either. Daley is almost ideal to cover Jeter on the pick-and-roll, and Zach Baines ’19 will be a good defender off the bench to challenge three pointers. Furthermore, Middlebury played better competition in the NESCAC than Salisbury faced in the CAC. Sachs admitted as much. Still, there remains the fact that the Sea Gulls steal the ball a million times per game. They’re so disciplined defensively, and what if Daley can’t pass the ball out of the post? What if they get hot from three? What if Brown has a few ugly turnovers?

In the end, though, I’m going with the team that Dave McHugh of D3Hoops.com dubbed the Cinderella of the tournament, Middlebury. (You can check out Dave’s conversation with Jeff Brown from yesterday here at the 1:07 mark, although his dubbing of Middlebury as the Cinderella came in the midst of Monday’s four hour bracket breakdown. I dare you to listen to that whole thing.) Being so close to the team might have blinded me, but it also has made me acutely aware of how much better they are with Daley on the floor and healthy. They’re closer to a 20-7 type of team than the 17-10 team they finished the season as. I’m giving Middlebury the edge in a game that plays closer to the Salisbury pace and remains tight, but the Panthers’ experience on the road (only nine games at home this season) will pay off.

Prediction: Middlebury 69 – Salisbury 62

Eye on Saturday

Hypothetically, if Middlebury pulls out the win, they’ll be playing the winner of the host Stockton University and Keene St, whom Middlebury beat by nine back in February. I’ll be honest with you, Keene St. is a major underdog in this one, and if they pull off the upset I’m putting a hefty sum on the Panthers to cruise into the Sweet 16. However, I doubt that happens, and Middlebury would have to play the host on Saturday. The second day of the first weekend is all about heart and grit, because teams don’t have much time at all to game plan. Bates needed an overtime period to beat Stockton at the Ospreys’ gym last year in the Second Round, but only two Stockton starters from that game are back this year. The numbers actually have them pegged as a pretty similar team to Salisbury in that they shoot a lot of threes, make them at a respectable but not incredible rate, keep teams to under 65 points and force other teams to turn the ball over, but don’t have a ton of height and struggle rebounding the ball. With that being the case, I like the Panthers chances to sneak into the Sweet 16, but as is always the case in Division-III, it’s damn near impossible to predict, so let’s just enjoy the show.

2016 NbN All-NESCAC Basketball Teams

Lucas Hausman '16 was an easy choice for the NbN NESCAC Player of the Year, and teammate Jack Simonds '19, seen here mesmerized by a Hausman drive, was a nearly as easy pick for Rookie of the Year. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics) — Lucas Hausman ’16 was an easy choice for the NbN NESCAC Player of the Year, and teammate Jack Simonds ’19, seen here mesmerized by a Hausman drive, was a nearly as easy pick for Rookie of the Year. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

So the NESCAC beat us to it by a day (though we actually made decisions on our team Tuesday night), releasing its All-Conference teams yesterday, but let’s be honest, no one really cares about that. The NbN All-NESCAC team is really where you want to be. What do all those silly coaches know anyway? They probably all vote for their starting five and then some dude in Hadley, MA, where the NESCAC headquarters is (by the way, is that like some guy’s really nice garage?), just fudges a few numbers and picks whomever he likes for the All-NESCAC team. Well we think we can do just as good of a job at throwing darts at a board of names. So here it goes.

First Team:

G Lucas Hausman ’16, Bowdoin (Player of the Year)

The NESCAC decided not to make Hausman the back-to-back Player of the Year, and we find that decision a little puzzling. We understand that Bowdoin didn’t have a great season at 4-6 in conference and a quarterfinal tournament exit, but C’MON MAN! Hausman gets buckets like nobody else in the NESCAC has ever. He scored 25.3 ppg, 2.5 more ppg than anybody else in NESCAC history. If you isolate for NESCAC games, the number rises to 26.0 ppg. All season long Hausman was performing a veritable Kobe Bryant impression, hitting fade-away and step-back jumpers at an unbelievable rate. He made an astounding 8.1 free throws per game during the NESCAC season. The next highest total was 5.1. I understand that Hausman is not a great defender or facilitator, but you can’t deny his greatness as a scorer. The NbN Player of the Year award doesn’t make up for losing out on the NESCAC Player of the Year, but I hope that it helps a little bit. -Adam

G Matt St. Amour ’17, Middlebury

Trying to not be too much of a homer, I started criticizing St. Amour’s one-on-one defense when Adam and I broke down our All-NESCAC teams. Then Adam reminded me that the Vermont native was the only go-to scorer on his team all long, the second-highest scorer in the conference, the leader in steals, great at getting and making free throws, takes charges at the biggest moments, and a darn good rebounding guard. He’s a nice guy, too.

G/F Dan Aronowitz ’16, Williams

Last season we got a glimpse of what Aronowitz can do when Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 was out with an injury. This year, Aronowitz was the best and most consistent player on the Ephs. He scored in double digits for 22 of the Ephs’ 25 games, and he was the best non-big man rebounder in the league pulling in 7.4 rpg, fifth best in the NESCAC. Aronowitz was also efficient, shooting 48.7 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from three. The year-to-year growth for Aronowitz from a seldom-used freshmen on an insanely talented team to junior leader on both ends of the court has been fun to watch. Next year he could make a strong push for POY honors. –Adam

F Shay Ajayi ’16, Trinity

All of those points that Hausman scored were just too eye-popping for us, but Ajayi made quite the case for POY laurels – after all, you add on what we saw as All-Defensive team caliber defense, and it’s hard to find a more complete player in the league. Ajayi tallied 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 42 steals (fourth in the NESCAC), 26 blocks (sixth) and was very efficient at 48.9 percent from the field.

C Tom Palleschi ’17, Tufts

Palleschi doesn’t look like much when he steps on the court – no offense, big guy – but he’s got some moves. Plus, he can stretch the floor all the way to the three-point line offensively. Defensively, there is a question about his ultimate impact, given how bad Tufts was as a unit, but his league-best (by far) 3.6 blocks per game suggest that he altered his fair share of shot attempts.

Second Team:

G BJ Davis ’16, Wesleyan University

Davis was headed for First Team status early on, but he and the Cards sort of petered out in the second half. Still, to elevate his game from just another option in the Cardinals rotating back court to “the guy” is a testament to his abilities. He’s remarkably quick, but could also shoot from anywhere, and hit 39.9 percent of his three pointers while scoring 16.4 ppg.

G Jake Brown ’17, Middlebury College

I’m happy to put another Panthers on the map here, and honestly I didn’t have to push too hard. Brown only scored 9.8 ppg, and All-League teams are usually just a mishmash of the highest scorers, but Brown really deserves this nod for his perimeter defense and control of the offense. Jack Daly ’18 is a good point guard in his own right, but Brown is truly elite at running a transition offense, and Middlebury would not be where they are right now without him. If you’re going by stats, Brown had 5.3 apg and a 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, both near the top of the league.

G Vinny Pace ’18, Tufts University

Pace burst on the scene this season by going for 25, 22, 22, 20 and 18 in his first five conference games after a strong early season non-conference showing. And even though Tarik Smith ’17 was the primary point guard, Pace racked up 2.8 apg and initiated the offense nearly as much as Smith.

G Connor Green ’16, Amherst College

Green was a First-Teamer a season ago, but got pushed by some great players this year to the Second Team. Still a great accomplishment, and one that Green can add to a long list of achievements, including being the third leading scorer all-time at Amherst with 1,679 points, 29 behind Steve Zieja ’03 for the second spot. He’s a match up problem for any team because of his ability to shoot, height and size, and averaged 6.3 rebounds per game.

C Ed Ogundeko ’16, Trinity College

Ed Ogundeko '17 (52) and Shay Ajayi '16 (44) are both NbN All-NESCAC and All-Defensive players. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Ed Ogundeko ’17 (52) and Shay Ajayi ’16 (44) are both NbN All-NESCAC and All-Defensive players. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

If we gave out a Most Improved Award, it would have gone to Ogundeko, hands down. Last season the big guy looked clunky and awkward around the rim, but this year he was downright silky with the ability to step away from 10-15 feet and make a couple of shots. Mainly, though, he just did work around the rim. At 6’6″, 235 lbs, not a lot of guys could move him off the block, and he used that advantage to pace the NESCAC in rebounding. He only played just over 22 minutes per game, but he was fifth in the conference in points per 40 minutes. That’s efficiency.

All-Rookie Team:

F Jack Simonds, Bowdoin (Rookie of the Year)

It’s crazy that Bowdoin has the Player and Rookie of the Year on their team, but you certainly can’t argue that Simonds is worthy. The 6’6″ Maine native came in and from day one showed he could shoot the rock. He finished sixth overall with 16.3 ppg. His size makes him a nightmare to cover, and down the stretch he got into the lane and finished more and more. Simonds had one of the best freshman seasons in recent history, and he missed out on our second team by just a hair. As good as Hausman has been over the past two years, Simonds has a chance to have an even better career. -Adam

G Tyler Rowe, Conn College

Well, he got into Sports Illustrated, and that’s good enough for me. But in all seriousness, Rowe might have been Conn’s MVP, and that’s on a team with Zuri Pavlin ’17, the guy who had like 1,000 rebounds in two seasons. The weight has been lifted off of Pavlin somewhat because of this talented freshman crew that Rowe headlines. After scoring 12.8 ppg and shooting 41.7 percent from the field (and 85.1 percent from the line) the sky is the limit for this kid.

G Peter Hoffmann, Hamilton College

I think it’s pretty clear that Head Coach Adam Stockwell was committed to the rebuild this season. That’s not to say he did anything less than try to win, because playing his freshmen was probably the best way to do just that. Hoffmann started 18 games, played 27.7 mpg, and pretty much shot the ball any time he touched it. Usually they went in (40.0 percent from the field), but he needs to sharpen up that long range game. Still, Hoffmann looks destined to be a great scorer in this league.

F Kyle Scadlock, Williams College

Watching Scadlock early on, I was sure he would be a shoe-in for NESCAC Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, his production really trailed off with eight single-digit point games in his last 11, but Scadlock is truly an elite talent with a unique skill set. He’s kind of built like Ben Simmons, except with the potential to shoot the ball. More than anything, the way he assumed a pivotal starting role and still maintained productive play tells me that he deserves this.

F Andrew Groll, Hamilton College

Groll was a workhorse, pulling down 7.8 rpg, fourth-most in the NESCAC. He also made the game-winner against Middlebury. Kid’s got ice in his veins!

All-Defensive Team:

F Shay Ajayi, Trinity College (Defensive Player of the Year)

Length, athleticism, effort, it’s all there with this kid. The NESCAC had him as the POY, we’ve got him as the DPOY. Fifty years from now he’ll be telling his grand kids that he was the D-III National Player of the Year.

G Jack Daly ’18, Middlebury College

As if we haven’t praised the Panther backcourt enough, this should really go 50 percent to Daly and 25 percent to Brown and St. Amour, each. Daly gets the nod because one Middlebury teammates called him the toughest kid in the league, and he takes the opponent’s best perimeter player on most possessions. Did you know that St. Amour, Brown and Daly went Nos. 1, 2 and 4 in steals per game this season? Crazy.

G Johnny McCarthy ’18, Amherst College

Speaking of stealing the basketball from unsuspecting victims, no one sneaks into a passing lane quite like McCarthy. Once again, length is the key. He’s 6’5″, but I’m sure his wingspan stretches beyond that.

C Ed Ogundeko, Trinity College

What more can we say? You can’t go inside on him without getting knocked around. He blocked 39 shots and altered countless more, and was the league’s best defensive rebounder by a considerable margin.

C Tom Palleschi, Tufts University

The guy right behind Ogundeko in defensive rebounding is Palleschi, who’s got some girth to him in his own right. I’m scared to think what would have happened to the Jumbos defense without the imposing presence of Palleschi. Luckily, we don’t have to think about that.

Sixth Man of the Year: F Eric Conklin ’17, Amherst College and G Eric Gendron ’18, Trinity College

We just couldn’t decide on one Eric. I wanted Conklin, Adam wanted Gendron, so we split it to make everyone happy (we might be getting a little soft in our waning days running the site). Conklin didn’t play a whole lot, just 16.1 mpg, but they were always important minutes, and his role as David George’s ’17 offensive half was crucial for Amherst. He racked up 20.8 points per 40 minutes, good for 14th in the conference, which is impressive for a guy coming off the bench and trying to get into a rhythm, shot 60.6 percent from the field, and was a sneaky good rebounder with 4.3 per game in limited time. Gendron, meanwhile, matched Conklin with 8.3 ppg but did most of his damage from deep, sniping away at a 43.3 percent clip. He’s also a great free throw shooter, going 36-39 (92.3 percent) this year, which didn’t qualify for the leaderboards.

Coach of the Year: Jeff Brown, Middlebury College

I said it on Monday in the stock report, but this is probably Jeff Brown’s finest work. Without any All-Region or All-American type players, Brown took his team to its third NESCAC championship just one year after missing out on the playoffs. Of course, if Middlebury loses the NESCAC championship to Amherst we have a different story and Brown might not win the award, but that’s why you play the game.

Caution: Unfiltered Middlebury Adulation Ahead: Stock Report 3/1

Middlebury is the NESCAC Champion for the third time. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)

Amherst College is an athletic powerhouse, and that fact is as evident in basketball as anywhere else. Both the men’s and women’s teams advanced to their respective NESCAC Championships yesterday. On the men’s side, it was the program’s 14 appearance in the title game in 17 opportunities. That’s not a misprint. Amherst has competed in 82 percent of all of the NESCAC Championship games in history, and until yesterday had a winning record: 7-6. Yesterday, though, it was not the Purple and White cutting down the nets, but the fourth-seeded Middlebury Panthers. Middlebury limped to a 3-5 start to the season, albeit against a challenging schedule, all on the road, but that slog seemed to prepare Middlebury well for conference play. They still fell short in a couple of games that should have been locks, though, specifically on the road at Conn College and Hamilton, which put the Panthers in a do-or-die situation. Capture the NESCAC crown, or hang up the sneaks until next year. They did just what they had to do on Sunday, punching their NCAA ticket by edging Amherst 81-79 in an all-time classic that featured 23 lead changes and one game-changing call that will haunt Amherst players forever. And because of that, this is going to be a very Middlebury-heavy stock report today. My favorite.

Stock Up

Middlebury C Matt Daley ’16

Matt Daley ’16 looked like the force this weekend that so many Panthers fans have long hoped he could be. (Courtesy of Jeff Patterson)

Cue the preamble about the double-double prognostications and oodles of talent. We all know that already. Let’s focus on his performance during the NESCAC tournament. After getting just five minutes against Wesleyan, Daley must have gotten really pissed, because he played great this weekend. Daley started both games against some of the best defensive centers in the league in Ed Ogundeko ’17 and David George ’17, played 27.5 minutes per game (huge considering that he averaged 17.7 minutes per NESCAC game this season), scored 34 points on 14-18 (77.8 percent) shooting, ripped down 11 boards, had three blocks, and helped hold Ogundeko, George and Eric Conklin ’17 to 20 points on 7-18 (38.9 percent) shooting. The Panthers are a completely different team with Daley playing like he did this weekend, and truly are good enough to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.

Middlebury Head Coach Jeff Brown

Coach Brown received the best gift any coach could ever ask for back in 2007 – a program-changing player. It was not because of his talent alone that Mike Walsh, class of 2008, was a game changer. After a 6-18 freshman campaign and 12-12 sophomore year, Walsh and the Panthers made to the NESCAC tournament in 2007 but finished 15-10. With one more season to play, Walsh and co-captain Andrew Harris ’08 went to Brown and laid out their plan for changing the Middlebury basketball program. From that moment on, Middlebury basketball has been a powerhouse with a winning attitude and unbelievable work ethic, playing in eight of nine NESCAC tournaments since then and making making NCAA appearances. Add in a string of phenomenal, All-American caliber players in guys like Ben Rudin ’09, Tim Edwards ’10, Andrew Locke ’11, Ryan Sharry ’12 and Joey Kizel ’13, among others, and the job becomes a lot easier for someone in Brown’s position. This season has been different, though. There are some very solid players on the Middlebury team, but no superstars. They weren’t even a playoff team a year ago. And Jeff Brown was able to rally his team after a 3-5 start, after an 0-2 showing on the last weekend of the regular season, and yesterday with Amherst leading by 11 midway through the first half. Strategically this weekend, Brown employed the zone well against Trinity, limiting their ability to make outside shots, and Sunday was just a gritty performance that really culminates the effort this team has put in all year. Kudos to Coach Brown for probably his best coaching performance.

Middlebury Basketball 2016 NESCAC CHAMPS pic.twitter.com/tQBKRodtan

— Henry Pendergast (@henrypendergast) February 28, 2016

Amherst Guard Michael Riopel ’18

Let’s give a little love to a non-Panther. Riopel had the best weekend of his NESCAC life over the past two days. Having averaged 7.0 points per game this season, Riopel lit it up for 11 and 17 in Amherst’s two games, and burned the nets from deep, making six out of seven three point attempts. It’s actually sort of shocking that Middlebury held on yesterday considering that Amherst shot 45.9 percent from the field and 44.8 percent from deep, including Riopel’s 4-5 performance. I expect Riopel will step into the place of Connor Green ’16 in the starting lineup next season, because he’s a dynamic offensive player at times.

Stock Down

Amherst Defense

Granted, they faced two pretty potent offenses in Tufts and Middlebury, but the Purple and White did not do a good job of getting stops this weekend, allowing 83 points to the Jumbos and 81 to Middlebury. Vinny Pace ’18 was just a dominant force for Tufts, and on Sunday it was a combination of Matt St. Amour ’17 and Daley doing the work for the Panthers. So basically Amherst was ineffective at stopping opponents in both the front and back court. In NESCAC games, Amherst had a league-best 69.4 points per game allowed, so this may just be a blip on the radar.

Trinity Offense

The secret might just be out on how to slow down the Bantams. Against Middlebury, Trinity shot just 32.8 percent from the field and in their first half against Colby last weekend Trinity scored just 19 points (of course, they exploded for 52 second half points and won by 11, so maybe the point is moot). What Middlebury did well, and what the Mules did well for the first half, was switch ball screens and pressure the Trinity shooters. Easier said than done, but definitely a key in defeating the Bantams. Teams with length in the backcourt are a tough matchup for the Bants, and St. Amour, Jack Daly ’18 and Zach Baines ’19 are pretty tough to shoot over when they have a hand up. Luke Westman ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 fall into that category, as well. In six of Trinity’s seven losses this season they’ve shot 31.6 percent or less from deep. Stop the three, stop the Bantams.

NESCAC Semifinal Preview: #4 Middlebury at #1 Trinity

Shay Ajayi '16 is playing the best basketball of his Trinity career, and the Bantams are looking to win their second NESCAC title. (Courtesy of David B. Newman/Trinity Athletics) — Shay Ajayi ’16 is playing the best basketball of his Trinity career, and the Bantams are looking to win their second NESCAC title. (Courtesy of David B. Newman/Trinity Athletics)

The Trinity Bantams have had a lot of recent success against Middlebury. For what it’s worth the Bants outlasted Middlebury 90-85 a season ago. More relevant, of course, was the 97-86 beatdown that Trinity slapped on the Panthers two weekends ago. I know it was only an 11-point victory, but I do think the word “beatdown” is appropriate. Firstly, 97 points is a ridiculously high number. Secondly, Trinity lead by 18 with just over six minutes to go, and only a barrage of three-pointers from backup guard Bryan Jones ’17 kept it from being embarrassing for Middlebury. So that does not bode well for the Panthers.

Here’s why that doesn’t matter, though. Firstly, Adisa Majors ’18 has been very good all season long, but let’s be honest, just two weeks ago he was still somewhat of a novelty, with only four double digit scoring performances all season. Then he put up 18 against Amherst on 7-8 shooting and 15 at Trinity, and after another 18 in just 19 minutes against Wesleyan in the NESCAC Quarters, Majors has officially become someone you game plan against. Secondly, Matt Daley ’16 is healthy(-ish). Yes, Daley only played five minutes against Wesleyan, but that doesn’t mean he can’t put up a double-double on Saturday. The theme for Panthers Head Coach Jeff Brown all season has been to ride whatever is working on a given day, which is why all 12 active Panthers were in the game in the first half against Wesleyan. Bottom line, it just wasn’t working for Daley, but it very well might be this weekend, and the Majors-Daley combo has a lot of potential. Thirdly, and lastly, while all of the remaining teams have plenty of motivation in their search for a NESCAC crown, Middlebury has a little extra something on the line. Without a sweep this weekend, the Panthers will be playing golf come Monday (as the saying goes – believe me, no one’s playing golf in Middlebury, VT on Monday). The other three teams are locks to be playing NCAA games. Will that make a difference? I don’t know, but there’s no danger of Middlebury looking past this weekend.

Last time they played – Trinity 97 – Middlebury 86, Feb. 13 at Trinity

After seven minutes, Middlebury was up by three, 14-11. That was nice. Then Trinity took the lead. Then it was 10 at halftime. Then it was quickly 15. And Middlebury chipped back a little bit. But then it was 18 after a Langdon Neal ’17 jumper. Trinity shot the lights out, going 34-61 (55.7 percent) from the field, 8-18 (44.4 percent) from deep and 21-27 (77.8 percent) at the line.

“I just think we did well making shots. We were comfortable shooting the ball, we did a good job getting the ball inside to our big guys, and they did a good job taking the ball to the basket.” – Trinity head coach James Cosgrove

Middlebury just couldn’t get stops. Trinity didn’t let Matt St. Amour ’17 get many looks from three (just 0-2), something they have to replicate on Saturday. Jaquann Starks ’16 couldn’t miss (6-10 FG, 4-6 3PT). And Trinity shared the ball exceptionally well with 22 assists, up from their 16.5 average. The Bantams played a complete game, and Middlebury just could not hang.

Middlebury X-factor: F Zach Baines ’19

Zach Baines '19 electrified the Middlebury crowd last Saturday with high-flying blocks and his pregame dunks. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus) — Zach Baines ’19 electrified the Middlebury crowd last Saturday with high-flying blocks and pregame dunks. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

You think you’ve arrived, kid? Think again. Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’16 probably form the best frontcourt combo in the NESCAC. “They’re two of the hardest workers I’ve ever coached, and they keep coming every day to get better,” said Trinity coach James Cosgrove. For Middlebury, their frontcourt is constantly in flux. Daley, Connor Huff ’16, Majors, Nick Tarantino ’18, Eric McCord ’19 and Baines have all started there. One thing that I feel fairly confident in, though, is that Baines will get a lot of minutes and they will be at the four. Which means – have you been following along? – he will have to defend Ajayi. In case you forgot, Ajayi is a senior, averaging 14.1 ppg, with NCAA Elite Eight experience. That is a tall order for Baines. He gives up an inch or two to Ajayi, but makes up for that with his length. I believe that he’s the only big man Middlebury has that can guard Ajayi at the perimeter, but he lacks the size (read: weight) to stop Ajayi when he gets around the rim. He will need help from Majors, Huff and Daley, but Baines is going to be a key in slowing down Ajayi and putting a hand in his face.

Trinity X-factor: PG Andrew Hurd ’16

Hurd leads the NESCAC with a 3.5 A/TO ratio, which is sixth in all of Division-III as of Thursday. On the flip side, Middlebury is the best in the NESCAC at forcing turnovers with 15.1 takeaways per game. Last time they played, Hurd has six assists and no turnovers. So that’s it, just do what you do, Drew. These backcourts are so evenly matched – St. Amour, Jake Brown ’17 and Jack Daly ’18 vs. Hurd, Starks and Rick Naylor ’16. You basically have a classic “true” point guard, a high volume shooter and defender/occasional scorer on both sides of the balance sheet. That’s why a pristine game from Hurd could be the difference, elevating Trinity’s backcourt and supporting a frontcourt that already has the advantage.

Three Questions

1. Can you shut down Matt St. Amour twice in one season?

My instincts say “no”, but I’ve been wrong once or twice before. St. Amour gets a lot of his threes in transition, not from traditional set plays. The Panthers, as we know, like to run, and sometimes St. Amour gets lost in transition. Now, if you shoot the ball like Trinity did last time, there aren’t many opportunities to run for the other team. So, in reality, offense, and offensive rebounding, is the best defense for the Bantams in this game. Put the ball in the hoop, stop transition looks, and St. Amour will be relegated to a free throw shooter like he was in the last meeting between these two teams.

2. How does Trinity Coach James Cosgrove exploit the frontcourt advantage?

The Bantams will work the ball through Ogundeko often, but backing him up against Matt Daley (6’8″) or Majors (210 pounds) isn’t likely to be the best strategy. I think the obvious answer is to pull out the four man with Ajayi, which isn’t exactly reinventing the wheel. Whenever the Panthers have two true bigs in the game – not Baines, who’s a stretch four – Trinity has to take advantage. Therefore, I don’t think Middlebury will play with two bigs very often, but the combos of Daley-Majors, Majors-Huff and some McCord sprinkled in will definitely occur.

3. Will any of the Middlebury bench players get hot in the first half?

Last meeting, it was Jones in the second half who got hot, but as mentioned, every one gets a shot in the first half on this Panthers team. Maybe it will be Jones (who’s dealing with sickness this week), maybe it will be Hilal Dahleh ’19 and his sweet lefty stroke, maybe Liam Naughton ’17 could drain a couple of quick threes, but someone is going to need to sneak a few buckets while the Bantams aren’t looking. Middlebury has had one consistent scorer all year, and even though we think that Majors can be counted on, that still only leaves two guys who can put the ball in the hoop more than twice a game. That makes defensive assignments pretty easy. Someone else needs to take some pressure off the Middlebury duo of St. Amour and Majors. And don’t let Trinity get up at half. With that defense (38.2 field goal percentage against; second in Division-III), good luck coming back. The only teams to trail Trinity at half and come back to win were the somewhat anomalous Eastern Connecticut (down by six), No. 16 Susquehanna (down by one) and No. 21 Plattsburgh St. (down by two) back in December and early January. So basically unless you’re a ranked team down by one or two points or from Eastern Connecticut you aren’t coming back on this team.

What to Expect

Expect Trinity to go back to Ajayi as much as possible. Jack Daly and Jake Brown should keep Starks in check for the most part, but Ajayi is a match up nightmare.

“I think for us, defensively, the matchup with Ajayi is really a challenging one,” Panthers coach Jeff Brown said. “In the past he played quite a bit of perimeter. The last couple of seasons he played a lot of the three-spot. So he’s one of those inside-outside forwards who’s extremely athletic, and with some of our post players it’s a tough cover.”

Coach Brown wants to switch more on the perimeter, something that Colby did well in the first half of last week’s Quarterfinal when they held Trinity to 19 points, and throw some different looks at the Bantams. I think we see a good deal of 3-2 zone to limit Trinity’s looks from three. I’ve yet to mention Eric Gendron ’18, but his 44.1 three point percentage ranks fifth in the NESCAC. You can’t let him get hot, either. “[Gendron’s one that really kind of concerns me off of the bench,” Coach Brown said. Middlebury needs to force stops to create transition buckets.

On the other end, if the Panthers can’t get going in transition, they’re in for a long afternoon. Trinity is obviously very tough and physical in the half court defensively, and I don’t think Middlebury can play that way for 40 minutes. Majors has the size to do it, but even that is outweighed (literally and figuratively) by the presence of Ogundeko. Look for St. Amour to try to get going early and give Middlebury a lead with a couple of threes. Baseline screens and hand offs for Number 11 will be a common sight.

“He’s dynamite shooting the ball.” – Trinity head coach James Cosgrove on Middlebury guard Matt St. Amour

As far as the NESCAC goes, Middlebury ranks first in offensive turnovers (i.e. fewest turnovers) and Trinity ties for fourth. On the flip side, Middlebury has forced the most turnovers per game (15.1) and Trinity has forced the fourth most turnovers per game. Something has to give. In a game of this intensity, with these stakes, I think the defense wins out. Not that it will be sloppy – these point guards are too good for that – but I envision a lot of fast-paced basketball which tends to result in some silly turnovers. Therefore, ball control is key. Don’t make mistakes with the ball. For Trinity, the key is to beat up on the Middlebury bigs. For Middlebury, the key is similar. Use Trinity’s aggressiveness against them. Middlebury’s not a very good free throw shooting team, but St. Amour (who takes 5.4 free throws per game, third in the NESCAC) is great from the stripe (81.5 percent), and forcing the Trinity forwards into foul trouble will change the game.

Additionally, Trinity has home court working heavily in their favor. They should have some boisterous crowds this weekend, unlike last when most of the students were gone because there was no class on Monday and Tuesday of that week. The Bantams have been tough to topple at home, going 11-1, that one loss coming against Amherst, and Trinity coach James Cosgrove is aware of the benefit of playing at home.

“It’s always nice to be playing at home. I think we feel real comfortable here. We’ve done some nice things here over the last couple of years.” – Trinity head coach James Cosgrove

Furthermore, the first time the Panthers step onto the court in Hartford will be an hour or so before game time. As a team, they chose not to take advantage of an early morning shoot around time slot. Whether that decision will pay off or not remains to be seen. Of course, Middlebury was on the Oostings hardwood two weeks ago, but they might want to forget about that.

In case you missed it over the last two-plus years, I’m a big Middlebury fan, and my co-editor, Adam Lamont, is a big Bowdoin guy. We’re both students, and we’re not afraid to let you know when we have a rooting interest. Despite all that, I can’t pick the Panthers in this game. Forgive me, guys, but you made me look foolish two weeks ago when I gave you the nod to win at least one against Amherst and/or Trinity. I won’t be fooled again. I hope I’m wrong, but Trinity just looks too good. They’re 12 for their last 14. One of those was against Amherst (the other was against 11-14 Merchant Marine – one of those mysteries where you chalk it up to being a full moon, Friday the 13th and everyone on the team taking part in a mirror-smashing party while walking under a step ladder … okay it wasn’t actually Friday the 13th). Point being, I just think Trinity will win. Prove me wrong, boys. I want to keep watching Middlebury basketball for a few more weeks.

Prediction: Trinity 76 – Middlebury 70

Home Teams Sweep Weekend: Stock Report 2/22

Connor Green '16 played like a superstar with 29 points in Amherst's Quarterfinal victory on Saturday. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com) — Connor Green ’16 played like a superstar with 29 points in Amherst’s Quarterfinal victory on Saturday. (Courtesy of NESCAC.com)

What has appeared to be a pretty chaotic NESCAC season suddenly got a lot more clear when the top four teams all pulled out wins in the NESCAC quarterfinals. It wasn’t that clear cut, considering that Colby led Trinity for a good 30 minutes of their game and Bowdoin was down three points with under six minutes to play. Still, the top four teams won, and a big reason for that is the impact of home court advantage.

Trinity, Amherst, Tufts and Middlebury combined to go 18-2 in their NESCAC home games. And those two losses both came at the hands of a fellow top four team with the Bantams knocking off the Jumbos in Medford and Amherst beating Trinity in Hartford. The biggest upsets of the regular season all came on the road: Middlebury falling to Hamilton, Colby topping Amherst, and Bowdoin getting the best of Wesleyan (not that big of an upset in hindsight but still).

Winning on the road is hard, even when there aren’t big raucous crowds to deal with. Athletes are creatures of comfort, and whether it’s the ability to have the same pregame routine or the familiarity of shooting in your home gym, teams undoubtedly do better at home at this level. As an aside, this makes Wesleyan’s championship run last year with two road and one neutral site wins all the more impressive.

Stock Up

SG Matt St. Amour ’17 and PF Adisa Majors ’18 (Middlebury)

Pepin Gymnasium was ROCKING on Saturday, and these two were supplying a lot of the fuel for the crowd to feed off of. After two subpar shooting performances last weekend, St. Amour did not hesitate from long distance early scoring 19 points in the first half as the Panthers built a substantial lead. As he cooled off in the first half, Majors took over, scoring 16 enormous second half points. Eleven of those points came in the final 5:30 of the game. After Nathan Krill ’18 pulled Wesleyan to within five points at 68-63, Majors scored the next six points for the Panthers to get the lead back up to 74-65. The difference in play from Majors this season from last year when he was a seldom used backup has been incredible. The sophomore works his butt off, has a really nice touch around the rim, and is a great mid-range shooter.

Forward Connor Green ’16 (Amherst)

Green has OWNED the Polar Bears over the past two seasons. In four games against Bowdoin, he averaged 24.0 ppg. That includes a clunker in the NESCAC semifinals last year when he had just seven points on 3-14 shooting. That didn’t matter though as Amherst won that game easily 76-56. In the other three games, Green has been sizzling hot from deep, going 19-36 (52.8 percent) on what have been very high difficulty shots. On Saturday, Green finished with 29 points, four rebounds, three assists and no turnovers. His big performance helped Amherst overcome subpar games from Jayde Dawson ’18 and Jeff Racy ’17. I have no idea how Green is going to play next weekend: he could either shoot Amherst out of the tournament or carry them to a NESCAC title. Regardless, I think that Saturday reminded us that he is still Amherst’s best scorer, and it clinched Green’s spot on the All-NESCAC First Team.

Tufts’ Offensive Balance

It is no secret that the Jumbos work their offense through Tom Palleschi ’17, but the junior center is not capable of being the scoring threat that some of the perimeter scorers in the league can be. The offense for Tufts works because all five starters are capable of creating their own shot. And even though Palleschi doesn’t shoot threes very often, he is shooting 45.5 percent from three this season. That means that every Tufts starter is also capable of hitting the three. That puts a lot of strain on a defense. On Saturday, four of the five Jumbo starters were in double figures (the other, Ryan Spadaford ’16, had 8 points), and each of them made a three pointer to boot. The downside for Tufts is that their bench has become somewhat of a non-factor down the stretch. That starting five will have to carry them next weekend.

Stock Down

Wesleyan Cardinals

What a weird season for Wesleyan. They were great against an admittedly soft non-conference schedule to rip off an 11-game winning streak heading into the conference season. Then they started 1-3 in NESCAC before winning their next five games (all vs. NESCAC teams) at home. Would it surprise you if I told you the Cardinals losses in their final three games were all on the road? Wesleyan was #7 in the last regional rankings, and it’s extremely unlikely they get an at-large bid.

On Saturday the fight that Wesleyan possesses was clear even though they fell short. They got a big performance from Harry Rafferty ’17 to come back in the second half. The game looked to be over with just over a minute left and Middlebury holding a nine-point lead. Then BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16 hit two absolutely ridiculous threes to pull the lead back to five points. However, that was as close as Wesleyan would get. The season didn’t go quite as planned for the defending champions, but you have to admit that they went down fighting.

Williams Passing

Some fans of the Ephs have been bemoaning the combined inability of Williams to get assists and not turn the ball over for much of the season. And I haven’t bought into those complaints until Saturday. In the second half, there was a stretch when Williams seemed to be turning the ball over on every possession. And when they didn’t, they weren’t able to generate any good shots. The Ephs finished the game with 15 turnovers and 10 assists. For the season, Williams finished last in the NESCAC averaging as a team 13.4 apg. The offense that Coach Kevin App runs is one predicated on constant cutting and screening, but it wasn’t great at creating good looks inside. The Ephs instead took a lot of threes, the second most in the NESCAC. The return of PG Mike Greenman ’17 from injury next season will do this offense a lot of good.

Colby Seniors

Expectations for Colby were high entering the season. The six Colby seniors were all good NESCAC players, and Chris Hudnut ’16 is one of the five best players in the league when healthy. On the other hand, all this class has to show on a NESCAC level is four consecutive eighth place finishes and subsequent first round exits. A bunch of factors held the Mules back the last two seasons, and there is no denying that Colby was a good team this year capable of knocking off anybody. On the other hand, the Mules failed to ever really deliver on their promise as a team. Now that this group of seniors is graduating, the Mules are going to be in deep trouble next season.

The game against Trinity was a microcosm of that promise. They were in control for much of the game, leading by as many as 12 points. Ultimately, the Bantams came back and enforced their will in the second half. Colby was bothered by the defensive intensity of Trinity, and on the other end they forced just one turnover from the Bantams in the half. What doomed the Mules was that Trinity went back to what works for them: being physical and getting inside. In the first half Trinity shot zero free throws (neither did Colby which is somewhat incredible). However, in the second half the Bantams got to the line 20 times and made 16 of them.

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #5 Wesleyan at #4 Middlebury

The Panthers are back in the NESCAC playoffs, and looking to beat Wesleyan for the 14th straight time. (Courtesy of Michael Borenstein/Middlebury Campus)

The last Cardinals victory over Middlebury came on Jan. 15, 2005. That’s 13 meetings, and one other NESCAC quarterfinal. Last season’s loss to the Panthers seemed to galvanize Wesleyan on their eventual championship run. This season’s game was a huge upset to start the season, as Wesleyan was expected to be near the top of the heap and Middlebury looked like a rebuilding project. Almost two months later, it’s hard not to see the Panthers as the favorite in this game. Playing at home is nice, a new frontcourt threat has emerged (more on that later), and Wesleyan is coming off of a shocking weekend where they dropped a pair of contests to Colby and Bowdoin. Will the Cards turn the tide today? It won’t be easy.

Last time they played: Middlebury 86 – Wesleyan 76, Jan. 8 at Wesleyan

It was a disastrous start for Middlebury. The Cardinals went up 14-2 in less than five minutes. Moments later, Middlebury coach Jeff Brown swapped out a few starters for his trio of freshmen, and the game completely changed. Eric McCord ’16, Zach Baines ’16 and Hilal Dahleh ’16 stopped the bleeding and helped the Panthers clamp down defensively. When McCord subbed out six minutes later it was a 20-14 Wesleyan lead, and later back-to-back Dahleh treys tied the game at 30-apiece. The second half was a battle, but a Middlebury onslaught to the tune of a 16-5 run in the final 3:25 proved to be the difference. In the end, Matt St. Amour ’16 was the Panthers’ top scorer, which is par for the course, but the 30 points received from McCord and Dahleh absolutely changed the game. On the flip side, 17 bench points from Joe Edmonds ’16 kept Wesleyan in the game, which leads to …

Wesleyan X-factor: G Joe Edmonds

Edmonds and guard Harry Rafferty ’17 have had to adjust to slightly reduced roles this season. In 2014-15, six Cardinals played over 22.0 mpg, Edmonds and Rafferty included, and that duo started more games than not. The Cardinals have a lot more depth this season, and Rafferty and Edmonds have had to work off of the bench for the most part. Edmonds hasn’t had a great, high-volume shooting night since that evening against Middlebury. He has tallied 10, 11, 10 and 11 again in a handful of games, but otherwise has only taken a few shots and been held to single digits. The Cardinals are going to get plenty of points from guards BJ Davis ’16 and Jack Mackey ’16, but can Edmonds step up and chip in double digits off the bench while stretching the floor? A year ago, that was a no-brainer. Now, the answer is up in the air. Edmonds posted a 41.1 percent mark from behind the arc a year ago; he’s at 30.1 percent this season. Which Edmonds shows up today?

Middlebury X-factor: C Matt Daley ’16

Matt Daley '16 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics) — Matt Daley ’16 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Daley might be the most gifted big man in the NESCAC. He just can’t stay healthy, through no fault of his own. He’s had so many issues this season – a soft tissue strain in his groin, a foot injury, concussion symptoms, and plain old illness that kept him out last weekend. So he never turned into the 20-10 guy that pundits believed he could be. He’s still a force when he’s in there. Daley is currently sixth in the NESCAC in field goal percentage, and the defensive end/rebounding is where he really shines. The big man rips down 7.8 boards per game in under 22.0 mpg. Imagine if he was actually healthy for all of those minutes, too, not nursing injury after injury. For what it’s worth, Daley ranks 13th in the NESCAC in points per 40 minutes, which is a testament to his importance when in the game. Wesleyan has two big guys who are athletic scoring threats in Joseph Kuo ’17 and Rashid Epps ’16 and Daley will be needed in order to stifle that pair.

Three Questions

1. How will Wesleyan shoot the ball from behind the arc?

If you’ve been reading along all year, you know that I’ve been fixated on the Cardinals (in)ability to shoot the three. They’re stacked with guys with great pedigrees who have underperformed in that regard this season. Wesleyan has taken the fifth-most three point attempts in the NESCAC, but is only making 32.3 percent of them (10th in the NESCAC). There was one hilariously bad four-game stretch against Amherst twice, Trinity and Tufts when Wesleyan shot 12-80 (15 percent) from deep. They went 8-22 (36.4 percent) in the last game against Middlebury. But of course, sports is a “What have you done for me lately?” business. Still, the recent returns aren’t much better. The Cards have upped the frequency with which they’re shooting treys recently, but not making any more of them. They are 22-81 (27.2 percent) over the last three contests. Will they be able to get open threes and make them today? Maybe, but Middlebury has a lot of length on the defensive perimeter. Jack Daly ’18 will give some trouble to Davis and Mackey, as well the super-long Zach Baines ’19.

2. Who wins the frontcourt battle?

Kuo and Epps vs. Daley and Adisa Majors ’18. The Wesleyan frontcourt is skilled brings a combination of size and speed. For Middlebury, Daley has the speed and length, while Majors has the brute strength. It’s an interesting match up, because I don’t know who has the advantage. Is it the pair of well-rounded forwards? Or can Daley and Majors work together to play as one shot-rejecting, block-defending, rim-protecting super-basketball-hero? Also in the mix are Wesleyan’s Nathan Krill ’18 – high motor, good length, and a work horse – and Connor Huff ’16 – high basketball IQ, and a good shotmaker. Lastly, Middlebury’s Zach Baines is sometimes employed as a stretch-4 type. That could be extremely problematic for Wesleyan, because Epps isn’t going to be quick enough to stop him on the perimeter.

3. Can someone other than Matt St. Amour put the ball in the hoop for Middlebury?

St. Amour has been a marked man since he started the conference season so strongly, and there hasn’t been a consistent second scorer for the Panthers. Sometimes it has been Daley, recently it’s been Majors, and a few times it’s been Baines or point guard Jake Brown ’17. My worry is that everyone will look to defer too much and no one will get the job done. Baines (7.1 ppg) has never played in a NESCAC playoff game, neither has Jack Daly (7.1 ppg) or Majors (6.9 ppg). If Daley can stay on the court for 25 minutes, I think he’s going to get a lot of usage and some big buckets, and subsequently Majors might see a few less minutes, but in those minutes he should be effective as well. On the perimeter, you’re not going to get one guy scoring a lot of buckets alongside MSA. Coach Brown likes to throw everyone in in the first half and feel out the flow of the game, so Hilal Dahleh or Bryan Jones ’17 are among those who could make a surprise impact with a couple of big shots early.

What to Expect

A lot of points. It might be a bit under the radar, but Wesleyan actually has the best field goal percentage defense in the league (38.1 percent) and the third-best points per game average defensively (68.1 percent), and still the Panthers ran up 86 points in their last meeting. Especially with Middlebury playing at home, Coach Brown is going to instruct his nephew, the younger Brown, to push the pace and get Wesleyan running. Tiring out the Cardinals’ high-usage starters, i.e. Davis and Mackey, is the key to testing out that depth. The Cardinals have won plenty of high-scoring games this year, though, so it won’t be easy to run them out of the gym. I think that Wesleyan will try to beat up on Matt Daley whenever he gets the ball down low and neutralize that second scoring threat that I just talked about above, forcing the Panthers to find someone else to score the ball. And, of course, both teams will lock onto the opposing superstar: Middlebury on BJ Davis and Wesleyan on Matt St. Amour. The Panthers are usually a switching team around the perimeter, but expect Jack Daly to man up with Davis to start. On the opposite end, my guess is that youngster Kevin O’Brien ’19 is tasked with covering St. Amour. I think the height advantage that St. Amour would have over Davis or Mackey would lead to a lot of easy buckets. That means that Edmonds will also be called on to cover St. Amour off of the bench.

It’s the No. 4-No. 5 game, so it should be a close one. I, of course, have somewhat of a vested interest here, so I apologize if my prediction waxes a little fanatical.

Prediction: Middlebury 75 – Wesleyan 70

One More Time, with Feeling: Weekend Preview 2/12

Middlebury is in a position to host the NESCAC tournament is they can sweep the weekend, and Jake Brown '17 plans to lead them there. (Photo Courtesy of Will Costello/Middlebury Athletics) — Middlebury is in a position to host the NESCAC tournament if they can sweep the weekend, and Jake Brown ’17 plans to lead them there. (Photo Courtesy of Will Costello/Middlebury Athletics)

With the final weekend of NESCAC basketball upon us, 10 games remain and the bottom five teams are fighting for the final two playoff spots. There is more on the table than clinching playoffs this weekend; for the six teams that have already clinched, these games will determine the tournament host and final seedings. Trinity currently stands as the favorite to host the NESCAC tournament, but a Bantam loss this weekend would open up the floor for Amherst to snag home court advantage.

Middlebury faces off against Amherst and then Trinity, and two wins will propel them to the top of the ‘CAC and set the stage for a chilling Vermont NESCAC tournament. The Panthers still have some questions about their legitimacy as a top tier team, and this will be their biggest test against the big guns. The Panthers have had a great season and could easily be undefeated in NESCAC games considering their losses were by one and two points respectively. On the other hand, many of their wins have gone down to the wire. The turnaround for the Panthers this season has been an impressive one. Middlebury was arguably the best team in the NESCAC from 2009-2014, battling against Williams and Amherst in games that rank as the best in NESCAC history.

Then suddenly, last season, despite entering NESCAC play 9-0 overall, the Panthers stumbled to a 4-6 NESCAC regular season and missed the playoffs by virtue of tie-breakers. The talent on the Panthers was clear given their home evisceration of both Wesleyan and Amherst. However, entering this season expectations were lowered given the loss of the two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15.

We had Middlebury last in our Power Rankings at the beginning of January given their lackluster beginning of the season, but they have been a different team in NESCAC play. However, the weekend tandem of Amherst and Trinity has left many a quality team in a serious hurting. The Panthers can end up hosting the NESCAC tournament or heading on the road in the first round depending on how things play out this weekend.

Three to Watch

1. Guard Jaquann Starks ’16 (Trinity)

The senior has seen his role squeezed this season because of the growth of teammates Ed Ogundeko ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16. Starks is averaging just 11.6 ppg, far below the 14.1 PPG he had last year. His shooting percentages have also dropped below 40 percent both from the field and three point line. With all the space taken up in the paint by his big men, Starks has done most of damage from beyond the arc. I think we see a vintage Jaquann Starks game before the season is over, even if it doesn’t come this weekend. I am also intrigued to see how Trinity matches up defensively when they play Middlebury. Will Starks guard the quicker Jake Brown ’17 or will he be tasked with slowing down Midd’s leading scorer, Matt St. Amour ’17? I would put Starks on Brown and Andrew Hurd ’16 on St. Amour. Also, this…

Trinity career 3pt record is 208 and I got 207 ? “We don’t take breaks we just break records” pic.twitter.com/AjQGh35HOj

— Jaquann Starks (@jaquannstarks) February 12, 2016

2. Guard Cole Teal ’18 (Williams)

The loss of Mike Greenman ’17 has forced Teal to become the starting point guard. His skill set isn’t quite right for the role, which is why Bobby Casey ’19 handles that role down the stretch. What Teal is doing exceptionally well is shoot the ball from deep. In NESCAC games Teal is shooting 50.9 percent from three while making 3.4 threes per game, the highest amount in the league. Eighty percent of his points come from beyond the three point line, a somewhat scary amount that can make him one dimensional. Last weekend Teal shot 13 shots from the field and 12 of them were threes. Teams need to start keying on Teal for the shooter he is.

3. Center Joseph Kuo ’17 (Wesleyan)

You won’t find a more herky-jerky player in the NESCAC than Kuo. His game is one of the uglier ones around, but no one can deny the relative effectiveness of it. Kuo is a constant, sometimes under-appreciated part of this Wesleyan team. His numbers, 11.4 ppg and 7.2 rpg, scream important contributor but not focal point. Kuo’s best game of the season came when he played Tom Palleschi ’17 to a standstill (Kuo had 20 points, Palleschi 19 in the game), and the Cardinals escaped with the overtime victory. He has been quiet but efficient in the four games since then. For Wesleyan to get a home court game, Kuo will have to slow down Chris Hudnut ’16 in the paint. One positive for Kuo is that the emergence of Nathan Krill ’18 means Kuo can play aggressively without worry of foul trouble.

Game of the Week: Middlebury at Amherst, Friday 7 PM

Both of Middlebury’s games this weekend will impact the top of the standings, but they have to get through this one for Saturday’s matchup to hold as much meaning. A Middlebury win and Trinity victory over Hamilton would make Saturday’s game a winner-takes-all for the No. 1 seed. If Amherst wins tonight, then Middlebury will be playing just to secure a home game in the first round on Saturday. Last season’s win over Amherst was the highlight to a disappointing campaign for the Panthers, but there was a sense that the Purple and White were coasting through that game while Middlebury was desperate for a win. That won’t be the case this year, as both teams know what’s at stake.

The guard battle will be a fun one to watch, as both teams can and will employ two point guards at times. I would expect Jack Daly ’18 to be tasked with shutting down Jayde Dawson ’18, but Johnny McCarthy ’18 provides enough of a scoring threat that Middlebury Coach Jeff Brown might chose to task Daly with McCarthy. Down low, David George ’17 will be critical in slowing down Matt Daley ’16. If George isn’t at his best, or Middlebury can get him into foul trouble, Daley could have 15 points easily. The advantage for Middlebury in this game will be their pace. The two teams that play at the highest tempo, aside from the Panthers, are Tufts and Colby, each of who have beaten Amherst this season. On the flip side, in the halfcourt Amherst has to have the advantage. Brown and Daly aren’t great scoring threats, which means McCarthy can focus on shutting down Matt St. Amour. That means a lot of responsibility could fall on frosh Zach Baines ’19 and Hilal Dahleh ’19 as well as forward Connor Huff ’16. In most of their losses, St. Amour has been made ineffective one way or another – 5-19 shooting at Hamilton, 5-16 at Endicott, 3-11 at RPI. Therein lies the key for Coach Dave Hixon.

When there’s so few games in a conference schedule, one game that goes from an L to a W can significantly change our perception of a given team. Were Middlebury 5-3 right now, I think Amherst would be the heavy favorite, especially at LeFrak Gym. That being said, the reality is that Middlebury is 6-2, hungry to prove that they belong, and in a position to bring the NESCAC tournament back to Vermont. I don’t know if they will have enough fire power to pull off the weekend sweep, but I do think they have enough magic for a victory tonight.

Prediction: Middlebury 81 – Amherst 75

Two More Games to Watch

Conn. College at Colby, Friday, 7 PM

This isn’t quite a win-and-you’re-in game, but it’s darn near close. Conn. solidifies their place with a victory, while Colby would move to 3-6, and three wins might be enough to get in. The entire Mule lineup is healthy, at least for right now, and I’ve long said that that is a dangerous thing for opposing teams. This is probably the last weekend of basketball in the lives of the Mules’ starting five, unless they can win this game. Look for Tyler Rowe ’19 to have a big game for Conn (who’s going to stop him?), but for Colby to outscore their opponent.

Prediction: Colby 86 – Conn 76

Bates at Williams, Sunday, 3 PM

The final regular season NESCAC game. It could end up being a total nonfactor, depending on how things work out on Friday and Saturday, including the possibility of a Williams upset of Tufts, but it is possible that either team could be playing for a playoff spot. It’s more likely that Bates is in that position, but 2-0 weekends from Colby, Bowdoin and Hamilton would put those teams at 4-6 and Williams would be 4-5 going into Sunday, meaning a win would be necessary. The chances are slim, but the possible drama is exciting. If it does end up being an important game, I am going with the team that needs the win, plain and simple.