Category: Wesleyan

Power Rankings Part 3- The West Playoff Teams

We wrap up the Power Ranks with the two West playoff teams. Same format as the East, and the numbers coincide to their overall ranking this week. We will have our predictions for the weekend up tomorrow morning so make sure to check back in.

3. Amherst (28-7, 9-3)

Why They’ll Win: Amherst might be the only team who could give Tufts a running in the “most sheer talent” category. Their lineup is filled with dangerous hitters, most notably ace leadoff hitter and shortstop Taiki Kasuga ‘14, who comes into the playoffs batting .366, and Mike Odenwaelder ‘16, the Miguel Cabrera of this NESCAC season. Odenwaelder comes into the playoffs at least in the top three of every major offensive category known to man, and leading in batting average and slugging percentage, at .417 and .658 respectively. As if that wasn’t enough, Odenwaelder also sports a 1.74 ERA out of the bullpen. When you combine these offensive threats with the three-headed beast in the rotation of Dylan Driscoll ‘14, John Cook ‘15 and Quinn Saunders-Kolburg ‘14, Amherst looks as deep as any team except maybe Tufts.

Why They’ll Lose: The blueprint for beating Amherst was shown two weekends back when Wesleyan took two out of three from the Jeffs. In that series, Wesleyan was able to get to Driscoll early in game one, making the other matchups more even. Each game in the series was close, decided by 2 runs or less, and Wesleyan’s propensity for clutch hitting helped them in the first two games, one of which went 9 innings. The final game of the series was a classic, going 11 innings, with Odenwaelder hitting a two run homer to end it. If teams follow this formula, and scrape out a win against Driscoll, than either of the other matchups in the double-elimination weekend could come out against Amherst’s favor. By the way, Driscoll has been another pitcher in NESCAC play, with a below average 4.10 ERA.

Sleeper-Catcher Connor Gunn ‘16: As his last name implies, Gunn is a superb defensive catcher, who certainly deserves some credit for the success of Amherst’s pitching this season. While his overall offensive statistics are not eye-popping, he has shifted into another gear in NESCAC play, batting at .349 with a .899 OPS. This success has firmly planted him in the fifth spot in the lineup, behind season-long sluggers Odenwaelder and outfielder Alex Hero ’14. This middle of the order probably constitutes the best in NESCAC, and if Gunn can continue to constitute the back end of that threat, Amherst is probably pretty well set to repeat their tournament success from last year.

2. Wesleyan (24-10, 10-2)

Why They’ll Win: Wesleyan’s confidence is at an all-time high right now after posting a league best 10-2 record in NESCAC play, including taking two out of three from Amherst on the weekend of April 25. While Wesleyan certainly has the all around balance of any great NESCAC team, it’s their offense that carries them. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ‘15 has been solid all season, but in league play he has been unbelievable, batting .422 with a ridiculous .711 slugging percentage. Jonathon Dennett ‘15 and Guy Davidson ‘15, both of whom also rank in the top ten in NESCAC for RBI, flank him in the lineup. When you pair these sluggers with table setters like Andrew Yin ’15 and Donnie Cimino ’15, it makes for a potent lineup that any pitching staff would struggle to contain.

Why They’ll Lose: Wesleyan certainly has chinks in their armor that could cost them in this weekend. Although their pitching has stepped up to the plate (pardon the pun) in NESCAC play, posting a 2.10 ERA, for the season they come in with a mediocre 3.72, pointing to early inconsistencies in the rotation. Their main starting pitchers, Nick Cooney ‘15, Jeff Blout ’14 and Gavin Pittore ‘16, have all been solid, but can struggle with their control at times, leading to extra base runners. And against a well-oiled machine like Amherst or Tufts this weekend, mistakes like that are not often forgiven.

Sleeper- Relief pitcher Peter Rantz ‘16: If Wesleyan does have shaky performances from any of those three key starters, Rantz will be crucial in righting the ship, and giving the offense a chance to slug their way back into the game. Rantz was putting together a nice year out of the pen, with a 3.06 ERA, but has struggled mightily in NESCAC play. At his best, he is a guy who can relieve a struggling starter in the third inning and keep them in the game. It is likely this weekend Wesleyan will need to have that option.

The Weekend Preview: May 2

The playoff field is set for next weekend, but not every question has been answered. This weekend’s schedule is light on NESCAC games, with only three makeup games on the docket, so we’ll focus on the Saturday doubleheader between Bates, who is playing in its first NESCAC tournament, and Tufts which will decide where the NESCAC playoffs are to be held. Aside from that matchup, there are some interesting East vs. West games coming up this weekend that we’ll take a peek at.

Who’s Number One: #9 Tufts (27-4, 8-2) at Bates (18-14, 6-4)

The Jumbos travel to Lewiston for the completion of a series that Tufts’ took the opener of way back on the first weekend of NESCAC play, 2-0. That game was played in Medford due to weather, and Kyle Slinger ’15 struck out 11 Bobcats through seven innings before phenom Tim Superko ’17 tossed two dominant frames for his first career save.
The situation this time around is simple. If Tufts wins one game, the NESCAC tourney will be played in Medford, but if Bates can sweep the Jumbos at home then the rest of the playoff field will be heading north. And for those who are wondering, the #9 next to Tufts is their national ranking according to D3baseball. The Jumbos are the only team from the NESCAC to receive votes this week. After a terrible 1-6 Georgia trip, Bates has been coming on strong down the stretch. The team’s only back-to-back losses since the beginning of April occurred this past Tuesday and Wednesday on the road at Fisher and #5 Southern Maine.

A certain amount of strategy figures to come into effect for the first game of the doubleheader this weekend. Brad Reynolds ’14 of Bates has been an animal for the Bobcats in 2014, winning the series opener against Bowdoin, Trinity and Colby. Reynolds lost last time out against Tufts, but pitched well, allowing two runs in seven innings. Reynolds has been employed for the nine-inning series openers all season, but head coach Mike Leonard will have to treat these two games like a playoff series if he intends to play for the chance to host, as I suspect he will. It’s only the first game of the doubleheader, but Reynolds gives Bates the best chance to win, so don’t be surprised if Reynolds trots out there with the expectation of throwing a complete seven-inning game.

Superko has been the seven-inning man for Tufts, and I see no reason why Tufts should change what’s been working, unless head coach John Casey decides to hand the ball to his senior, Christian Sbily ’14, and give him the chance to win home field advantage, or opts to go with his most dominant arm and NESCAC ERA leader Slinger for the seven-inning game.Depending on who wins the first game, the second game could either mean everything or nothing at all. All hands should be on deck as long as the top seed is in the balance, so whoever doesn’t start for Tufts will likely see action out of the bullpen. What makes the Jumbos so great is that they could trot out any one of four powerful arms – Sbily, Slinger, Superko or Tom Ryan ’15 – and still be expected to win.

As for Bates, if they can steal game one, the ball ought to go to Will Levangie ’15 in the second game because he owns a 1.78 ERA. But Levangle has only gone more than five innings once this season, so the rest of the staff, including Anthony Telesca ’17 (1.69 ERA) will need to be ready to go.

In the end, Tufts is too balanced and too good to let Bates win two games in one day, so expect the road to the title to go through Medford. You can take a look at the Bates’ perspective of the coming series here.

Around the ‘CAC

Hamilton heads to Williams tonight to finish their series begun last Sunday. With the win, Williams will finish its NESCAC season with a winning record. The live stream can be found here.

After a Friday game with Lasell, Colby will take to the road for a doubleheader with Amherst on Saturday (video). Colby was knocked out of the playoffs last weekend, and would love to make a statement against one of the West representatives.

Trinity and Wesleyan are also playing a cross-divisional doubleheader on Saturday (video). It’s been a disappointing season for Trinity, but a couple wins against in-state rival Wesleyan would go a long way towards ending the year on a high note.

Middlebury will finish off its long season this weekend by hosting Bowdoin for a doubleheader on Saturday and Tufts on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how Tufts employs its staff on Sunday after Saturday’s meaningful match ups.

A few more non-conference games will be played this weekend. Hamilton travels to SUNYIT on Saturday for a doubleheader and will play host to SUNY Canton on Sunday. Springfield heads to Williams for two on Saturday, while Suffolk will visit the Ephs on Sunday. UMass-Boston will play two with Amherst on Sunday as well, and Bowdoin will head to St. Joseph’s on Sunday, a team that the Polar Bears beat 11-6 earlier this season. The biggest non-NESCAC game of the weekend comes on Sunday when #24 Eastern Connecticut heads to Middletown to play Wesleyan at 1 PM on Sunday.

Make sure to tune in for what promises to be an intense matchup in Lewiston on Saturday. The conference’s top seed hangs in the balance.

The Turning Points

My favorite analogy to how a baseball season plays out is a long Dickensian novel with a constantly rotating cast of characters. Some players are critical to the development of the story while others stay hidden in the background most of the time. The NESCAC season is more like a novella when compared to the monstrosity that is the 162 MLB game season, but the idea still holds. Crunched into just more than two months (besides Bates who played a very early spring trip), the season is so compact with most teams playing about four games a week for most of March and April. As the season goes on themes begin to emerge. A team’s strengths and weaknesses become apparent, but certain things also change. A few games and moments stick out when thinking about how we got from the cold depths of winter to where we are now, the playoffs. Below are five that we think were formative moments in the season.

 

 

But first, a disclaimer. While the games listed below coincided with a change in fortunes for these teams, they are in no way evidence of the hot-hand myth. These are moments that we believe one could point to and say either that they had a major impact on the postseason or that a team played much better after this game, but the result of one game is not the cause of an extended run of success.

March 21 in Tucson, Arizona: Gustavus Adolphus 24 – Wesleyan 0

The 24-run defeat was the worst margin suffered by any NESCAC team this season, and knowing what we do now the result is even more shocking. Wesleyan is arguably the best team in the NESCAC while Gustavus Adolphus, from Minnesota, has gone 4-18 since that game. After the result Wesleyan stood at 8-5 and looked to be a team that was going to struggle in NESCAC play because their pitching was so bad. The best pitcher to that date had been Peter Rantz ’16 who started this very game and got tagged for five runs in 2.1 innings.  That helped prompt a change in the rotation with Gavin Pittore ’16 becoming the number three in stead of Rantz. Since that game the Wesleyan pitching has improved leaps and bounds to the point where the staff out-dueled Amherst this weekend. This is also a case of the final scoring making things look even worse. Nobody who pitched in that game should see meaningful innings in the playoffs. Regardless, Wesleyan clearly turned it around after this game when they promptly went on a 12-game winning streak.

2. March 29 in Medford, Massachusetts: Tufts 2 – Bates 0

Way back on March 29, Tufts and Bates opened up conference play in a game moved to Massachusetts because of the weather. This game is not significant for Tufts, though we did see Kyle Slinger ’15 show off how dominant he would be in conference when he struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings. Instead, the real meaning came in the pitching performance of Bates’ Brad Reynolds ’14. The big lefty had struggled mightily to begin the season in part because of a shaky defense. Yes, he took the loss by allowing two earned runs, but both of those runs came in the first inning. He shut down Tufts for the next six innings and then carried that into next week when he struck out 10 Bowdoin hitters in a Bates rout. Reynolds has turned into a bona fide ace winning his two other conference starts as well. His magnum opus came last Friday when he went all nine innings without allowing one run and striking out 12. Without Reynolds, Bates’ pitching would not have sniffed the playoffs, but he wasn’t that guy until that start against Tufts.

3. April 11 Middletown, Connecticut: Wesleyan 4 – Williams 1

Williams came into the weekend at 4-2 in the NESCAC after losing their previous series to Amherst, and Wesleyan was 3-0. This was the first game of the weekend, and Williams entered the bottom of the seventh with a 1-0 lead. Nobody had expected these two teams to be locked in a low-scoring battle, but the pitching by both teams was excellent. Williams’ Steve Marino ’14 allowed hits to Donnie Cimino ’15 and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 before a sacrifice bunt moved both into scoring position. After an error allowed the tying run to score and runners to be on the corners, Robby Harbison ’17 delivered a huge double to right field to score both runners and break the 1-1 tie. Williams couldn’t get anything going in the eighth or ninth and just like that they faced must win games the next two games. The next two games weren’t nearly as close, and so by the end of April 12 it was already apparent that Amherst and Wesleyan would be the two teams coming out of the West.

4. April 12 Brunswick, Maine: Colby 4 – Bowdoin 2

The teams split the first two games of the series so that entering the second game of the doubleheader Colby was 3-2 and Bowdoin was 4-4 in the NESCAC. The game was scoreless going into the top of the six because of great pitching by Greg Ladd ’15 for Colby and Jay Loughlin ’14 for Bowdoin. With the heart of Colby’s order coming up in the sixth, Bowdoin Manager Mike Connolly decided to turn to his left-hander Christian Martin ’14. After a fantastic 2013, Martin had pitched sparingly so far because of injury. The inning got off to a terrible start for him when he hit Jason Buco ’14. Three batters later the bases were loaded with one out and Daniel Csaplar ’16 at the plate. Csaplar didn’t shrink from the pressure, hitting a two-run double. The next batter, Jack Galvin ’14, hit a two-run single to chase Martin and put the game out of reach. The loss basically knocked Bowdoin out of the East race and momentarily elevated Colby to tied for first in the East at 4-2.

5. April 27 Waterville, Maine: Bates 6 – Colby 2

One of the final games in the NESCAC season decided the final playoff spot. This was a must win for Colby (started the game at 5-6) while conceivably Bates (started the game at 5-4) could have lost and then won their final two games against Tufts. The Bobcats clearly did not want to be in that situation, and they made sure it didn’t happen, led by clutch pitching from Chris Fusco ’14. Colby stranding 11 runners over the course of the game ultimately doomed them. The Bates offense came from a lot of different spots in the lineup with Sam Warren ’16 leading the way with three hits. A lot of players have stepped up to take the load off of the senior duo of Kevin Davis ’14 and Griffin Tewksbury ’14. Those two carried the team for much of the season, but near the end other Bates players came through to make the difference.

 

 

Stock Report April 29

We recapped the action of what went down this weekend last night in our roundup. Now it is time to look at the people who were the biggest movers this weekend. For the playoffs, it’s often better to be hot than good, so take that to heart as teams gear up for the playoffs which are still two weekends away.

Stock Up:

1. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 – First Baseman (Wesleyan) – Goodwin-Boyd has been absolutely mashing since conference play got started. He didn’t let up this weekend hitting a huge home run in the first game against Amherst before topping that by hitting another one in the next game that was the only damage Wesleyan could do against Amherst’s John Cook ’15. That was enough, though, as great pitching on both teams led to a 1-1 tie entering the bottom of the ninth. Wesleyan pushed across a run to walk-off with the win, they’re second in conference play, and the West division title. Goodwin-Boyd owns a tidy .566 slugging percentage which goes a long way towards explaining how he has a league-leading 32 RBIs. Wesleyan was the first team that really got to Amherst’s pitching even though Amherst still pitched very well overall. Winning the division is huge for the Cardinals because Wesleyan should get to avoid Tufts and instead get a much weaker (though hot) Bates.

2. Christian Sbily ’14 – Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – We have dedicated most of our virtual ink to talking about Tufts’ top two of Kyle Slinger ’15 and Tim Superko ’17, but the number three has been so good that he merits equal credit for Tufts’ success. Like so many others, Sbily has been at his best in recent weeks. He shut out Colby for seven innings last week and yesterday he scattered five hits for the complete game shutout. Sbily isn’t the same type of power pitcher the other two are, but he goes deep into games because he is able to have consistently low pitch counts. He is a huge advantage for Tufts because while many NESCAC teams have aces comparable to Slinger and Superko, Sbily is almost unmatched as a third starter. Sbily could be the difference-maker for Tufts in the NESCAC Championship.

3. Thomas Murphy ’15 and Steve Marino ’14 – Starting Pitchers (Williams) – This has not been a banner season for the Williams pitching staff, but this duo really came through yesterday as Williams swept Hamilton. Murphy went all seven innings to win a duel between him and Jjay Lane ’15.  Williams pushed across the winning run in the bottom of the seventh to come away with the victory. Marino was just as good going all nine innings, striking out nine, and limiting Hamilton to three earned runs. For Marino, it was an especially high note in his final conference game. Williams wasn’t good enough to hang with the big boys, but if they pitch this well consistently they will have more than a fighter’s chance next year.

4. Chris Fusco ’14 – Starting Pitcher (Bates) – We saw a lot of great pitching performances this weekend, and the love we’ve been doling out in this section is well-deserved. Fusco didn’t have a great day, but he came through to toss 5.2 innings of two-run ball in the deciding game of the Bates-Colby series. Fusco has a tendency to give up homers (five on the season), and Jason Buco ’15 hit another one against him yesterday, but Fusco was very good besides that. Bates had already gotten a PHENOMENAL start by Brad Reynolds ’14, but that alone wasn’t going to be enough. Bates didn’t look like a playoff team way back in February when they were making errors all over the place, but their best players have carried them this far. In a short series they are dangerous.

Stock Down:

1. Ryder Arsenault ’17 – Center Fielder (Colby) – Arsenault has been a enormous part of Colby’s surprise run in the East, but he, like the team, ran out of steam at the end. In the first game Arsenault struck out three times, contributing to the 12 Colby strikouts on the day. Yesterday he saw only one plate appearance, pinch hitting at the end of the third game. We don’t know if his benching was purely performance-related or if he has some type of injury that hindered his play, but the Colby offense really sputtered this weekend. Getting shut down by Bates’ ace Reynolds wasn’t a huge surprise, but they barely got anything going the other two games as well. Arsenault is one of many talented players coming back next year for Colby.

2. Erik Jacobsen ’15 Starting Pitcher/Infielder (Bowdoin) – Bowdoin knew going into the weekend that they needed to sweep Tufts to have a chance at the postseason. The Polar Bears were the first team to give Kyle Slinger ’15 issues as they won the first game of the series. Jacobsen has been solid all season, but Tufts jumped on him early and he didn’t make it out of the third inning in Game Two. The Bowdoin bullpen limited the damage, but the Tufts pitching is too good to make up an early deficit. An offense that has seen some players step up, but other more established ones struggle, couldn’t muster much of a comeback in the eventual 5-1 loss. Understandably after that disappointment, Bowdoin didn’t muster much of a challenge in the third game, losing 14-0.

The Weekend Preview April 25

The Overview:

This weekend is shaping up to be the best kind of weekend New England can offer. There’s some beautiful spring weather on the horizon, I might not have a massive paper to write, and of course, there’s a full slate of NESCAC baseball games to enjoy. Every NESCAC team is in action this weekend, and every in-conference series has implications for playoff seeding. So, without further ado, let’s dig into these match-ups.

The Marquee Matchup: Wesleyan at Amherst

There is a clear series that stands out as the pivotal battle of the weekend, and that would be Amherst versus Wesleyan. The Jeffs and the Cardinals have been locked in a season-long battle for supremacy in the West, and they come into this series tied at 8-1 in the league, with Amherst holding a better record overall by one game (22-5 vs. 21-6). The winner of this series is assured of a number one seed from the West, and has a very good shot of reaching the NESCAC final.

Wesleyan can attribute much of their success to a wonderfully efficient offense, which has posted a league leading batting average (.321) and one base percentage (.416). Their pitching staff has come into its own during NESCAC play, posting a 1.70 ERA since league play began, making this team truly complete. The offense is spearheaded by freshman phenom Robby Harbison ’17 (league leader in hitting at .427), and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15, who paces the NESCAC with 29 RBI. The table is set for the solid hitters up and down the lineup by Andrew Yin ’14 and Donnie Cimino ’15, who get on base at .476 and .443 clips, and lead the league in runs with 31 and 32, respectively. The pitching staff is led by flame-throwing ace Nick Cooney ’15, who comes in at 5-1 and leads the league in strikeouts with 50 in 46 innings. Gavin Pittore ’16 and Jeff Blount ’14 round out the weekend starters.

Amherst comes in with an equally dangerous lineup. They are led by MVP-candidate Mike Odenwaelder ’16, who’s hitting .419 with a 1.057 OPS. He is flanked by shortstop Taiki Kasuga ’14, who’s hitting .392, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14, who’s hitting .337 and is second in the league in steals. Like Wesleyan, Amherst’s table-setters, Kasuga and second baseman Andrew Vandini ’16 (.427 OBP) do a fantastic job getting on base in front of the sluggers in the middle of the order, making for a potent lineup. In the rotation, Dylan Driscoll ’16 continues to set the standard for NESCAC pitchers this season, with a 1.26 ERA and 6 wins. Fellow starter Jeff Cook ’15 has been great this season with 43 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 35 innings and earned NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honors last week. The big question for Amherst is whether SP Fred Shephard ’14, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this season, will be able to go. Shephard missed last week’s start against Middlebury with elbow pain. Keenan Szulik ’16 started in Shephard’s place against Middlebury and did an admirable job, but Wesleyan’s hitters should be licking their chops if they get a chance to face Szulik instead of Shephard.

Despite the offensive firepower that both teams possess, this series will be determined by the pitching. The two southpaws, Cook and Cooney, will likely meet up this afternoon. Driscoll and Blout are usually the seven-inning game starters for both squads, so look for them to pitch game one on Saturday, while the series finale should pit Pittore against Shephard or his replacement.

The race for best pitcher in the West:

While the East’s pitching is indisputably deeper than that in the West, Amherst and Wesleyan’s starting rotations can match up with anyone. That will be on display this weekend in Amherst, as Cooney, Driscoll and Cook battle for the ERA crown. All three pitchers have excellent stuff, and can strike out anyone in a big spot. The one wart on Cooney’s resume is his control issues (3.39 BB/9), which can sometimes get him into trouble. Driscoll very rarely hurts himself (5.57 K/BB), and that is the main explanation for his miniscule 1.26 ERA. However, Cook might have the best stuff of the group. He matches Cooney’s velocity with Driscoll’s accuracy. Cook has 43 K’s in 35 innings and just three walks (14.33 K/BB). He gets hit only because he is consistently in the strike zone. Right now, Driscoll leads the way in ERA, but Cooney (2.70) and Cook (2.83) are not far behind.

Around the League:

Bates, Bowdoin and Colby are all pretty close in the race for the second seed in the East, so this weekend will decide the race. Barring a major upset this weekend when Tufts travels to Brunswick to play Bowdoin, the winner of the Colby at Bates series will make the playoffs as the second seed in the East. Bates currently sits at 4-3, and has two games remaining with the Jumbos after this weekend. Colby and Bowdoin, meanwhile, are 4-5. With just two wins, Bates will secure their playoff spot because they hold the tiebreaker over Bowdoin (unless Bowdoin can sweep Tufts).

The series between Hamilton and Williams has no implications for the postseason, but the two squads are fighting for the third seed in the West.

Trinity and Middlebury have no more playoff hopes going into this East vs. West matchup, but pride is still a motivating factor in these games, which is part of what makes sports so great. Both teams have been disappointing to this point, and want to prove that they won’t roll over. I fully expect the games between Middlebury and Trinity to be hard fought, competitive and fun to watch, just like those between Amherst and Wesleyan.

Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule:
Tufts at Bowdoin 3 PM
Colby at Bates 3 PM
Wesleyan at Amherst 3 PM

Enjoy the final weekend of a full NESCAC slate.

 

Power Rankings

As always, all picks are made by a committee of one. If you have any complaints about where a certain team is then please feel free to comment. And no I did not put certain teams purposefully low in order to get you angry.

1. Amherst (21-5, 7-1) – They don’t have the best record in the conference, or even their own division, but no team is as complete or playing as good baseball as Amherst. While Tufts has better top-end talent in the pitching department, Amherst has the deepest pitching of anyone. And while Amherst is third in the league in runs scored, the difference between them, Wesleyan and Tufts is minimal. Of course Amherst could prove me completely wrong if they don’t show up against Wesleyan. One way in which that could happen during this weekend’s critical West series is if Amherst’s defense lets down its talented staff. While Taiki Kasuga ’14 is usually great up the middle, the Jeffs’ infield defense combined for four errors last weekend against a Middlebury team that did not hit the ball on the ground too often, striking out 19 times over the course of three games, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14 had an ugly error on a line drive right at him, the product of a lapse in concentration. On the season, Amherst is tied for the fewest errors in the NESCAC, but one miscue can decide a game between two very talented teams.

2. Tufts (25-2, 6-1) – I predicted earlier in the year that Tufts would finish with less than eight wins. With only seven regular season games left that looks pretty good given they can lose a maximum of five games between the NESCAC and NCAA tournament (if they make it). We have talked at length about how good their pitching, but the concerns about their hitting are very real. Even though they roughed up Scott Goldberg ’15, the other Colby starters gave the Jumbos a tough time. At some point the time will come when the offense needs to pick up the staff, but will the bats be ready?

3. Wesleyan (21-6, 8-1) – Considering that they were the last team undefeated in conference and still hold the best record, Wesleyan fans are sure to take this ranking as disrespect. Know that the difference between the top three is razor thin. In a three game series I would not be surprised to see Wesleyan beat Tufts or Amherst, but I just have more questions about Wesleyan than I do the other teams. I am not sure if their pitching is going to hold up down the stretch or if their hitting is really as good as it seems given how they have struggeld at times in conference. This is the case of a team being great at many things, but not the best at any of them.

4. Bates (14-11, 4-3) – The gap between Wesleyan and Bates is big enough for an aircraft carrier to pass through. I almost left fourth place empty to make my point clear, but Bates has done enough in recent weeks to justify this spot. I don’t think they have a chance come playoffs, but I like them this weekend against Colby. Their senior class has been playing incredible, picking up the slack for a team that has otherwise underperformed preseason expectations.

5. Colby (14-9. 4-5) – Just a really tough weekend for Colby against Tufts. It was rough being swept, but losing two one run games is particularly heartbreaking. Now Colby falls right back into the mire in the middle of the East. Of course, if they win the series this weekend against Bates they make the playoffs, unless Bowdoin somehow sweeps Tufts, because Colby would own the tiebreaker against both Bates and Bowdoin.

6. Bowdoin (16-11-1, 4-5) – Most likely Bowdoin will finish the season without making the NESCAC tournament in what is a disappointing, albeit defensible, season. I say defensible because of all the injuries that occurred to the pitching staff. A lot of younger players stepped up, but it looks like it won’t be enough. You can count on Bowdoin fighting tooth and nail every pitch this weekend though.

7. Williams (8-13, 4-5) – The pitching just hasn’t been there for Williams all season to be competitive  in the West. Their team-wide 7.67 ERA is easily the worst in the NESCAC. The offense has been very, very good for most of the season, but was not quite as good when it really mattered against Wesleyan and Amherst. They still have a chance to finish above .500 if they sweep Hamilton, which would be a great finish for the Williams seniors who have had long successful individual careers.

8. Trinity (11-16, 4-8) – Trinity is the beginning of the bottom tier of the NESCAC (who would have guessed back in March that we’d be saying that now?), but the bottom three teams are much closer than they have been in years past. Trinity has shown that they are not far away from returning to the top of the league next season. They have lost a ton of close games in conference and are just one or two impact players away. Those players are most likely already on the roster, and the final weeks of the season will help the coaching staff identify those potential contributors.

9. Hamilton (2-6, 9-11) – Hamilton holds onto the ninth spot by virtue of handing Wesleyan their first conference loss in a comfortable 7-1 win. They showed they don’t have the depth to stay with the top teams, but they have a nice young core that is going to be coming back. A strong finish against Williams will move them up the rankings, but they could finish in the cellar because of how the last place team has been playing recently.

10. Middlebury (4-15, 2-10) – It pains me to put Middlebury last because they have been playing better than that in the last few weeks, but they haven’t garnered enough victories to justify moving them out of this spot. If they had stolen one from Amherst then they would have moved up. The good news is that the team is playing better and better and getting plenty of improvement from its young players. The pitching and infield defense have really been transformed since the team returned from Arizona, but the bats have yet to follow suit. Nevertheless, the future is looking a lot better than it was just three weeks ago.

Stock Report April 21

The playoff picture is beginning to solidify in both Divisions. In the West, Wesleyan and Amherst know that they will be playing tournament baseball this May, and the regular season West crown will be decided this weekend when Amherst travels to Middletown, CT. As for the East, the Jumbos remain on top, though with five games still to play in conference a slump would drop Tufts from the number one seed. Everyone but Trinity is still afloat on the East side of the ledger. We have one full weekend of NESCAC play remaining, and here we discuss who’s hot and cold heading into the final week of conference play.

Stock Up

1. Bates (13-11, 4-3) – No team had a better weekend than the Bobcats did. They took two out of three against Trinity to take care of business, but more importantly saw Colby lose three tight games to Tufts. Bates cruised in game one behind another great start from Brad Reynolds ’14, and won game two by mashing their way to 12 runs. Griffin Tewksbury ’14 hit his conference leading fifth homer of the season as well. The Mules and Bobcats will meet next weekend in a series that should finally decide who will get the second spot in the East. I say “should” because Bowdoin could surprise Tufts and win multiple games to give them a chance. Bates also has two games still to play against Tufts which have been rescheduled to May 3. This has the potential to be a huge help to Bates because Tufts will most likely have nothing to play for. They could rest a bunch of their regulars, or at least not play them the entire game. Even if they ended up losing both games to Tufts, Bates can all but assure a playoff spot if they win two games against Colby. 6-6 might be all it takes to make it in the East.

2. Nick Cooney ’15 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan) – Hamilton had a hard time figuring out the junior southpaw as Cooney had 12 strikeouts on the way to his fifth win of the season. Last week he won NESCAC Pitcher of the Week, and his performance this week was just as impresive. He has put an uneven start behind him in conference play with three great starts against Middlebury, Williams and Wesleyan. The in-season improvement by the entire staff has been the big difference in the Cardinals’ play in conference. Cooney has emerged as an ace and workhorse by leading the conference in innings pitched this season.

3. John Cook ’15 Starting Pitcher (Amherst) – We admit that we wrote Cook off a little bit when he let up 11 runs to Southern Maine in the beginning of the year. Since then the junior has rebounded in a big way, but he saved his best for last weekend. Middlebury was keeping Amherst on the ropes with a great pitching performance by Eric Truss ’15, but Cook matched him every step of the way, holding Middlebury to one run as the game went to extras. After a Tyler Jacobs ’15 homer put the Jeffs up by one in the tenth inning, coach Brian Hamm showed his confidence in his pitcher by sending Cook back out to start the bottom of the tenth. Cook calmly delivered, going three up three down. Considering Cook allowed 11 runs in one game, his 2.83 ERA is almost a miracle, and a testament to his recent dominance.

Alex Kelly '14 was among the few bright spots for Middlebury against the Amherst staff, going 6-13 in his last NESCAC series atop the Panthers' lineup. Courtesy of Rachel Frank
Alex Kelly ’14 was among the few bright spots for Middlebury against the Amherst staff, going 6-13 in his last NESCAC series atop the Panthers’ lineup.
Courtesy of Rachel Frank

Stock Down

1. Colby Offense – First we should give credit to Soren Hanson ’16 and Greg Ladd ’15 for stepping up big time and giving the Mules a chance to win the last two games of the series after Tufts managed to rough up ace Scott Goldberg ’15 in the first game. The offense, however, could not get anything going which is why the weekend ended without any victories for Colby. Yes, Tufts has some of the best pitching in the league, but Colby missed two golden opportunities to grab a game. Their best chance was in the top of the sixth in the second game when a double left runners on second and third with one out. On a groundball to second Jason Buco ’15 was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run, and a Tyler Starks ’16 strikeout ended the inning with two runners still on base. The offense needs to regroup before the weekend for Colby to reach the playoffs.
Check out this amazing catch by catcher Nick Cutsumpas ’14 that helped the Jumbos sweep the Mules.

2. Hamilton’s Supporting Cast – Again, we don’t intend to single out a certain player on Hamilton for their poor play, but we draw attention to this in order to shed light on Joe Jensen’s ’15 play. Over the weekend Jensen was his usual havoc-wreaking self with five stolen bases in three games. Hamilton has faded in conference play after we highlighted them as a potential spoiler in the West, but it hasn’t been because of Jensen. He now sits at 18 stolen bases and a .512 OBP on the season. With nine games remaining he has a chance to match the 29 he had in 2013. The problem is that he just hasn’t gotten any backup from his teammates. He has ten more hits than anyone else on the team, and Hamilton has nobody in the middle of the lineup hitting for extra bases that would move Jensen quickly around the bases.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin) – Since he started conference play with a gem against Trinity, Ridge has struggled to be the number one starter Bowdoin needed him to be because of the injuries to Henry Van Zant ’15 and Christian Martin ’14. Against Bates and Colby, Ridge couldn’t manage more than three innings in each game, and while he pitched six innings against Williams, he allowed five runs (three earned). His ERA sits at a respectable 3.00, and it is true, like we wrote last week, that his defense has let him down. Still, whether it is fair or not, Bowdoin needed him to be more than that in order to contend. His season is sadly reminiscent of last year when he went through similar stretches of uneven pitching. All that being said, don’t count him out to have a rebound this weekend as Bowdoin prepares for their last stand against Tufts.
You can catch the highlights of Saturday’s Williams-Bowdoin doubleheader here, courtesy of Bowdoin athletics:

 

West Power Rankings April 9

Editors’ Note: Check back later in the day for our East Division Power Rankings.

1. Amherst (14-4, 4-1)- The relationships between the two conferences of the NESCAC this season seems to mirror the two conferences of the NBA, just with the roles reversed. The East of NESCAC and the West of the NBA has talent and parity up and down the standings, with one team standing out (Tufts and the Spurs). And the West of NESCAC and the East of the NBA have two teams standing out at the top, with the rest of the standings looking a little iffier. The teams at the top of the West are Wesleyan and Amherst. Although Amherst (14-4, 4-1) sits below Wesleyan (14-5, 3-0) in the standings, the Lord Jeffs’ frightening combination of excellent pitching and offense places them in a position to dominate the West for the rest of the season. The Jeffs are hitting at a .323 clip, with a NESCAC-leading eight home runs. The power in the lineup is combined with a pitching staff that comes in third in the league with a 3.60 ERA, and is led by NESCAC Pitcher of the Year candidate Dylan Driscoll ’14. To return to the NBA analogy, Amherst is beginning to look something like this year’s Miami Heat, the team with by far the most talent in the conference, and is now ready to assert that talent on the league after coasting for a time.

2. Wesleyan (14-5, 3-0)- Amherst’s chief competitor for supremacy in the West is the Wesleyan Cardinals. Wesleyan is having a great season, sitting at 14-4 and 3-0 in the conference after a sweep of Middlebury. The Cardinals owe most of their success to a solid offense. The team is batting at a .323 clip, with an .813 team OPS. There is not a ton of power up and down the lineup, but Wesleyan is chock-full of solid hitters who get the job done. However, Wesleyan’s pitching has been shaky thus far, to the tune of a 5.12 ERA. Wesleyan’s fundamentals and offense have sustained them thus far, but the pitching will need to improve if they are to keep pace with Amherst in the West.

3. Hamilton (7-6, 0-2)- Although Hamilton sits at 0-2 in NESCAC, the only team that they’ve played in the league thus far is Amherst, while Williams had a three game sweep of Middlebury to bolster their record. The Continentals have had some offensive struggles so far, hitting only .274 as a team, despite an absurd .465 average from outfielder Joe Jensen ’14. Their pitching has been solid with a 4.15 ERA. With a series win this weekend against Middlebury, they could firmly plant themselves as the third best team in a somewhat weak Western side of NESCAC.

4. Williams (7-7, 4-2)- Williams is having a crazy season thus far. If you looked at just their offensive statistics, you’d believe it if you heard they were undefeated. They are leading the NESCAC in batting average, on base percentage AND slugging percentage, as well as being third in runs. However, Williams’ team ERA sits high above the rest of the league at 8.33. Williams cannot hope to improve their standing if this paradoxical existence continues. If their pitching can improve to being even average, their offense could carry them to make a run at Hamilton. But, if the pitching remains where it is, the offense will fall due to the intense pressure. It’s almost impossible to score nine runs a game against NESCAC pitching.

5. Middlebury (2-11, 0-6)- It was a general consensus in the pre-season that 2014 would be a re-building year for the Panthers. They lost three of their top five offensive players to graduation, and then the two remaining ones left the team soon before games started. This season is about the future for Middlebury, and there have been positives in that direction. First-year Jake Stalcup ’17 has posted a 2.79 ERA over 9.2 innings pitched. Young players like John Luke ’16 and Max Araya ’16 have been showing great potential in the lineup. Struggles like this can often serve to unify a young team in the years going forward. The team showed their mettle by playing Wesleyan tight in all three games of their series last weekend. Like the Ephs, Middlebury has had problems with the pitching staff, although defensive issues have fed into that. This year may be something of a lost season for Middlebury, but the positives from it should reverberate for years to come, and lead to greater successes soon.

Stock Report

Every Monday we will recap the weekend’s action by handing out our analysis in the form of a stock report. With the first weekend of action in the books, The ‘CAC regular season is officially underway.

Stock Up

1. Mother Nature- Nobody else had a bigger impact on this weekend’s games. Almost every weekend game was affected somehow with the rain precipitating (pun fully intended) starting times being changed and games shortened, though luckily only three games had to be postponed. Amherst and Hamilton moved the site of their series a good five hour drive south to Yaphank, New York on Long Island. They were unable to play the final game of their three game series, but a tip of the cap to the teams and athletic departments for finding an inventive way to play the other two games. Tufts and Bates only fit in the first game of their series which was moved from Bates to Tufts because of the weather causing Bates’ ‘home opener’ to become a bit of a misnomer. Bowdoin and Trinity managed to fit all three games in, but the final one was shortened to eight innings because of the rain. A glance at the forecast looks promising as this week will be filled with sun and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The rain this weekend melted a lot of the snow and ice left on fields so by next weekend hopefully every home NESCAC field is ready to go.

2. Amherst- I was expecting Hamilton to steal at least one of their games this weekend (and it’s possible they would have if the third game had been played), but Amherst looked like a very strong team from top to bottom in the two games. Hamilton’s best chance to win was probably the first game with their ace Jjay Lane ’15 on the hill, and they managed to strike in the first against Amherst’s Fred Shepard ’14. After that the lefty Amherst native dominated going seven innings and striking out eight without allowing another run. Shepard has already thrown a no-hitter and is the owner of a not too shabby 0.93 ERA through three starts. The offense got to Lane for two runs in the first inning and added another in the sixth for a final score of 3-1. The second game was not nearly as competitive with Amherst tagging Hamilton’s Cole Dreyfuss ’16 for six runs in the second inning. Andrew Vandini ’16 and Mike Odenwaelder ’16 led the way with three hits each, Dylan Driscoll ’14 went seven scoreless striking out nine, and Amherst’s depth showed a little when leftfielder and number eight hitter Anthony Spina ’17 hit a solo shot in the third. Amherst has the big rivalry weekend coming up with Williams, and they should be confident knowing they are handing the ball to both Shepard and Driscoll again next weekend.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin)- Ridge had stretches when he threw the ball very well last year as a freshman, but he has improved his consistency leaps and bounds through four starts. He doesn’t overpower you with his raw stuff with only 14 strikeouts so far, but Ridge does a great job forcing the issue with hitters, keeping them off balance, and preventing anything from being hit too hard. This weekend he shut down Trinity’s offense for six innings allowing only two hits and no runs as Bowdoin cruised in the first game of their doubleheader. Ridge’s performance has been especially critical because Bowdoin has had their three top starters from last season barely throw in 2014. Oliver Van Zant ’13 graduated, Christian Martin ’14 has yet to throw a pitch, and Henry Van Zant ’15 saw his first action this weekend in relief. His and Erik Jacobsen’s ’15 performance has helped Bowdoin off to a very good start despite all those absences.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury- We knew it was going to be tough sledding for Middlebury because of what they lost from their senior class and then the decision of Hunter Merryman ’15 and Dylan Sinnickson ’15 to not play this season in order to focus on basketball. Still, the Panthers have looked helpless at times so far including this weekend when Williams swept them with ease. Williams has a good offense, but they should not be putting up 18 and 20 runs against NESCAC teams. Middlebury is an extremely young team with only two seniors on the roster, and you have to feel bad but also be impressed with Alex Kelly’s ’14 play so far. The outfielder is hitting for a .422 average at the top of the lineup while also playing great defense in the outfield. Middlebury finished up their Arizona trip at 2-8 and will have to face a loaded Wesleyan team next weekend in Connecticut. It is likely to be a long season for the Panthers, but there are still plenty of positives able to be drawn from it.

2. Scott Huley ’15 Outfielder (Trinity)- A lot was expected out of Huley entering the season as Trinity had to replace multiple starters from last years team, and he has not been up to the task so far. He hasn’t been terrible with a .382 on-base percentage, but his .356 slugging percentage underlies how Trinity has been all season. Since hitting two doubles in Trinity’s second game against Denison, Huley has had only two extra base hits. Trinity as a team has been getting on base at a below average rate of .351, but their slugging percentage of .326 overall is abysmal. Nobody expected Huley to come out and show off explosive power given his frame, but his inability to hit doubles this year means he can’t be the middle of the lineup presence we expected him to be. Also, after pitching 18 innings with a respectable ERA, he is yet to take the mound this season despite Trinity having issues with their pitching. Why Manager Bryan Adamski hasn’t used him is unclear, and Huley’s value has suffered. He is still a player with a lot of talent, but little time to turn it around, just like Trinity as a whole.

3. Jeff Blout ’14 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan)- Overshadowed by Wesleyan’s overall success thus far has been the disastrous pitching of Blout. His outing this weekend against Mitchell was his best of the season, but it still was far from dominant. While Blout only allowed one run in five innings, he had to pitch around four walks. On the season he has only 12 strikeouts to 11 walks which is an unacceptable ratio. Blout had a top four ERA in the NESCAC last season, and his 7.13 ERA this year is more than three times higher than his 2.06 ERA from 2013. The Wesleyan offense has been scary to pitch against for opposing teams, but the Cardinals are not going to give Amherst a serious challenge for the division crown if their pitching doesn’t pull it together. Blout has to find his stuff again because Wesleyan has nobody else who can replace him. Peter Rantz ’16 and Nick Cooney ’15 have been the most consistent pitchers, but neither of them are aces. Blout is the key for Wesleyan.

Wesleyan Season Preview

Wesleyan (25-15-1, 9-3 in 2013)

What They Lost:

Bottom line, not much. Rightfielder Steve Moran played all but one game last season and hit a robust .348, but his bat, though solid, is replaceable. Moran was seventh among qualified hitters on the team in OBP and slugged a paltry (when compared to his average) .385. Captain Chris Bonti has also moved on, who spent most of last season as the team’s designated hitter at the top of the lineup. Bonti was a table-setter of the sabermetric mold, boasting a .443 OBP and rarely striking out (10.3%) while not being known for his speed (1-1 SB). The 2013 Cardinals’ only other two seniors had minimal impacts.

2014 MVP: CF Donnie Cimino ’15

This is an easy call. Cimino, an all-NESCAC football player, has been one of the league’s best ever since he hit .400 as a freshman, and has led the NESCAC in hitting the last two years. Cimino was so good that he worked his way into the 3-hole by the end of that season, and remained there throughout 2013, when he slashed .399/.467/.486. In conference games last season, Cimino was in the top five in AVG, SLG, hits, RBI and runs. Cimino headlines what could be the best offense in the NESCAC this year.

2014 Pitcher of the Year: Jeff Blout ’15

Blout and classmate Nick Cooney started 19 games between them last season, and each posted an ERA of 3.05 or below. Blout was almost a run better than Cooney on the year, finishing with a 2.06 ERA, a 5-2 W-L in nine appearances, all starts, and a 45:16 K:BB ratio. Among starters, Blout ranked fourth in ERA in 2013. The top two in that category (Cook of Amherst and van Zant of Bowdoin) have graduated, so the ERA crowd could come down to Blout and fellow junior JJ Lane of Hamilton. In four in-conference starts, Blout really excelled, posting a 0.75 ERA, and hurling two of his three shutouts in the NESCAC, but he wasn’t at his best come tournament time, giving up 13 hits and four runs in eight innings against Amherst in the finals of the winners’ bracket of the NESCAC tournament.

Season Outlook:

The Cardinals made the postseason last year after a two year hiatus, and are poised to return this season with a chance to claim a NESCAC title and repeat as Little Three champs. The outfield will be a strength for the Cardinals, with Cimino again aiming for a NESCAC batting crown. Jon Dennet ’15, who hit .340 last season and had one of the Cardinals’ two home runs in 2013, will man left field. Second baseman Andrew Yin ’15 and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 each return looking to repeat their All-NESCAC performances from 2013. Goodwin-Boyd tallied the fifth-best slugging percentage in the NESCAC at .525. Third baseman Ben Hoynes ’15 and shortstop Guy Davidson ’16 make up one of the best defensive left sides in the NESCAC. Eric Jones ’16 will handle the duties behind the dish. He played in 34 games last year, and while he was mediocre offensively, he led the NESCAC in runners caught stealing (18) and held would-be base stealers to the lowest stolen base success rate (.679) among starting catchers. First-year Ellis Schaefer is a natural infielder, but will get at bats in right field as long as he continues to hit, while also spelling Davidson and other infielders at times.

The top-ten ERA-leaders from the Cardinals’ 2013 squad return. Blout and Cooney each earned second-team All-NESCAC honors in 2013, and could easily repeat that in 2014. Sam Elias was a dominant reliever in 2013, posting a 2.94 ERA, and could be considered for a starting spot in 2014, though the front-runner for the third weekend slot is Chris Law ’14. Overall, the Wesleyan staff posted a 3.69 ERA in 2013, and could improve on that number this season.

Again, the Lord Jeffs will likely be Wesleyan’s biggest competition for a NESCAC West title, and the two teams could rematch for a NESCAC championship come early May.