Appearances Can Be Deceiving: Stock Report 1/20

Tufts is the best team in the league, Bates is in danger of the same free fall as last year, and Wesleyan might be good, but they can’t compete with the NESCAC’s best.

All of these arguments could be made after this weekend, but could also also look foolish in another week. Consider this: at this point last week Middlebury was in the process of being exposed as soft. The Panthers responded with a 2-0 weekend, including the best half played by any NESCAC team this season in the first half against Wesleyan on Friday night. We still do not know much about how the league is going to shake out.

What is clear is that all of the chaos has hurt the NESCAC’s reputation nationally. For the first time since 2002, no NESCAC team was in the D3Hoops Top 25 released on Monday. Amherst and Trinity received a couple of votes each, but it will take a team stringing together a couple of weeks without losing before someone will claw back into the poll. The chances of multiple NESCAC teams making the tournament continue to fade as the committee sees the wide-openness as mediocrity.

Stock Up

Hard Non-Conference Schedules: Colby and Tufts entered conference play with a combined record of 11-12, but so far the two are 6-1 in conference play, with the Jumbos the most impressive team thus far in NESCAC play. Both coaches, Damien Strahorn for Colby and Bob Sheldon for Tufts, went out of their way to schedule hard teams out of conference. The combined records of the teams Colby and Tufts lost to is 126-52 (.710 winning percentage), and that record includes a 4-10 Maine-Farmington team which Colby lost to without Chris Hudnut ’16. Both teams now have turned the corner and for now are at the top of the league standings. Tufts in particular looked poised down the stretch against Trinity after losing a number of close games early in the season. Keep in mind that this stock is only up in the short term. The hard early schedule could come back to hurt both teams. Unless either team wins out in the regular season and wins a game or two in the NESCAC tournament, their chances of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament remains slim.

Class of 2016: Two weeks ago we noted how the current senior class could end with only two players crossing the 1,000 point mark. Last week saw two current juniors, Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby) and Connor Green ’16 (Amherst) cross the same mark.

Chris Hudnut '16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)
Hudnut earned his second Player of the Week honor of the season by averaging 22.5 points and 11.0 rebounds in two conference games this week. (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)

Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates) has 794 points currently and looks like a lock to reach 1,000 points. A recent explosion in points from Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin) means that with 630 points right now, he appears likely to cross the mark as well. Meanwhile, Luke Westman ’16 (Colby) is averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting an UNREAL 74.8 percent from the field. Westman never shoots from outside, but even still to shoot that well around the rim is exceptional, especially for a guard. Trinity is powered by their duo of Shay Ajayi ’16 and Jaquann Starks ’16. The junior class is not as deep or as star studded as the 2014 or possibly 2017 class, but it’s not far off, either.

Point Guard Tarik Smith ’17 (Tufts): A lot of different players have elevated their play in conference for the Jumbos, but Smith has unquestionably had the biggest impact. In three conference games Smith is averaging 17.3 PPG on the absurd shooting percentage slashline of 68.4/83.3/95.5. He scored nine points in the second half against Trinity, including the game sealing free throws in the waning seconds. However, big questions remain. First, there is zero percent chance Smith continues to shoot this well from deep and at the charity stripe so his efficiency is sure to go down. Second, this scoring binge is coming out of nowhere. In non-conference play Smith averaged 6.0 PPG and reached double digits only twice. Finally, Smith is only averaging one turnover per game during this stretch but is averaging over two per game on the year. But note that before conference play began, Smith had started all 11 games at the point for the Jumbos, while he has come off the bench in each NESCAC game so far. There is a chance that Smith moving out of the starting lineup has taken pressure off of him. More likely, Smith played a great three games, but regardless his play is representative of a wider trend for Tufts.

Stock Down

Traditional Powers: The Big Three of the NESCAC (Williams, Amherst, and Middlebury) are each sitting in the middle of the pack at 2-2. All three lost huge senior classes, but that does not fully explain how far back to the pack they have fallen. Consider that since 2001-2002 season, one of those three won the NESCAC regular season crown by going either undefeated or having only one loss. Since Middlebury still has to play Amherst and Williams, it is possible that all three finish with at least three losses. All three teams are more than talented enough to win the NESCAC tournament, but their rosters are not as flawless as in years past.

Wesleyan: As someone who was in the front row of the Wesleyan bandwagon, this was a very hard week. First the Cardinals went up to Amherst in a non-conference game and forgot how to shoot from deep in the process of a 21-point loss. Then after going up early in the first half against Middlebury 14-13, Wesleyan let up a 38-10 run by the Panthers to go into the half down 27 points. Their normally stout defense was unable to find a way to slow down any aspect of the Middlebury attack. Things got out of control quickly as the home Panthers just got in an offensive roll. Sixteen turnovers, with each starter having at least two, also was not helpful.

Wesleyan's Joseph Kuo '17 can't stop this finish from Matt Daley '16. (Courtesy of  Michael O'Hara, Middlebury Campus)
Wesleyan’s Joseph Kuo ’17 can’t stop this finish from Matt Daley ’16. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara, Middlebury Campus)

Now Wesleyan is 1-2 in conference, and because of their schedule, they have to go on the road for five of their final seven conference games. The Cardinals just rebounded with a nice win last night over Baruch, but they now face an uphill battle in conference play.

Point Guard Graham Safford ’15 (Bates): Though a bit simplistic, as Safford goes, so go the Bobcats. Last Tuesday in order to keep him rested, Bates coach Jon Furbush did not play Safford at all, but the results this weekend were subpar. Safford scored 12.0 PPG on only 26 percent shooting, and he did not make a single two-point field goal against Trinity. Not coincidentally, Bates went 0-2 against Trinity and Amherst. Those are two very hard road games, but Tufts also went 2-0 as Bates’ road partner this weekend. The Bobcats need their leading man to figure out how to avoid another late season slide. Last season Safford had a similar falloff with his overall points per game 4.4 higher than his conference average while his shooting percentage plummeted at the same time. Keeping him fresh is crucial, and Bates might need to rely on Billy Selmon ’15 to become the primary ball handler for short stretches.

Caution! Potential for Chaos: Weekend Preview 1/16

We are predicting (even hoping) that this weekend is the one that officially throws the league into chaos. There is a very good chance that after this weekend not a single team will be undefeated in conference. Bates, Trinity, Colby and Tufts are the four teams still unbeaten. Bates plays Trinity tonight while the Jumbos head to Hartford for a matchup with Trinity on Saturday. Bates and Tufts both play Amherst in their other game this weekend. Meanwhile, Colby plays Hamilton and Williams at home. While the Mules looked good last weekend, we can’t call them an elite team just yet and Williams presents a big challenge for them. In almost every game this weekend there is a good case to be made for either team winning.

Three Players to Watch

1. Forward Tom Palleschi ’17 (Tufts): An injury to fellow big man Hunter Sabety ’17 for the Middlebury game contributed to Palleschi scoring 18 points on 8-11 shooting as the Jumbos sprung a big upset on Middlebury. Well, the term “upset” is contingent on the idea that Tufts early season struggles are unfixable. Sabety’s status for this weekend is still unclear, and Tufts has to go on the road and play Amherst and Trinity. If Sabety is out then Palleschi will once again be the focal point of the offense. After an uneven start, he is now averaging over 10.0 points per game. He is tough to guard because he has a very good mid range shot but can also go into the post and get buckets from there.

2. Guard Jake Brown ’17 (Middlebury): Last week Bates coach Jon Furbush made a bold tactical decision to have one of the Delpeche brothers guard Brown. Brown was goaded to shoot from the outside and had no way of getting into the lane and distributing. He finished the game with nine points, but he went 1-7 from deep. I would not expect Wesleyan to put Joseph Kuo ’17 on Brown, but whoever does guard him will give Brown all the space he wants to shoot. Brown knows that he does not have to be a scorer either. On Tuesday he went 0-5 from the field, but still had a good game because he passed out nine assists. Expect him to pass up outside shots and just try to get into the lane time and time again.

3. Guard Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates): Another huge weekend for Bates as they go on the road to play Amherst and Trinity. Graham Safford ’15 is the leader for the Bobcats, but Boornazian is the player who makes them special if he plays well. He averages 14.2 PPG, but that comes on only 38.9 percent shooting. His importance is derived in large part from his ability to guard positions 2-4. Boornazian slowed down Dylan Sinnickson ’15 when he guarded him last week, and he will have a similar task against either Johnny McCarthy ’18 or newly minted 1,000 point scorer Connor Green ’16. Boornazian needs two stellar performances if Bates is going to pull out two tough road victories.

Three Games to Watch

1. Friday 7 PM: Wesleyan (11-4, 1-1) at Middlebury (10-2, 0-2)

No game is a must win this early in the conference season, and Middlebury knows that they don’t need to press, but there is still a sense of urgency for the Panthers. Falling to 0-3 is far from a death sentence, but the way Middlebury played at Tufts set off a lot of warning bells. How much of last weekend was a result of a stomach virus that ravaged the team is as of now unclear.

On the other side Wesleyan just got run out of the gym in the second half against Amherst. The game was much closer than the final score of 69-46 made it appear, but the Cardinals never really threatened the Jeffs. Amherst did a really good job of closing down on Jack Mackey ’16 and Harry Rafferty ’17 and without that outside shooting, the Cardinals offense was simply unexplosive. Wesleyan can live with a meh offense so long as their defense holds its own, but first Colby and then Amherst were able to find holes in the Cardinal armor. Sinnickson is a matchup problem for a lot of teams, and Wesleyan will likely have Rashid Epps ’16 on him. Epps is stronger than Sinnickson, but Sinnickson is also a dead-eye shooter. Against Bates, most of the threes that he missed rimmed in and out. He and Hunter Merryman ’15 will rely on Brown to get them open looks from deep.

2. Friday 7:00 PM: Bates (11-2, 1-0) at Trinity (12-3, 2-0)

Trinity just saw Merchant Marine, of all teams, snap their 10-game winning streak. The offensive struggles that Trinity always has to worry about reappeared. Because of an off game from Jaquann Starks ’17, they could not create anything and shot poorly from the outside. The loss takes a good deal of the shine away from the Bantams and could possibly haunt them in a couple of months if they are looking to get an at-large bid.

How much the referees let these two teams play could have a major impact because of the possibility for foul trouble. Both teams love to play physical, especially on the boards. Bates is more than happy to slow the game down just like Trinity so this could be a game that ends up somewhere in the 50s.

3. Saturday 3:00 PM: Williams (10-4, 1-1) at Colby (9-5, 2-0)

You should watch this game because Williams has decided that every game they play in this season is going to be awesome. Counting their December clash against Wesleyan, the three games the Ephs have had against NESCAC teams have combined for three overtimes, and then of course the one game that did not go into overtime ended on this crazy Ryan Kilcullen ’15 buzzerbeater.

These two teams are at the very bottom of the NESCAC in defense and near the top in scoring so that should make the game a wide-open, fun one to watch. Though Kilcullen and the Ephs held their own against two physical frontcourts in Trinity and Amherst, Chris Hudnut ’16 is a much more skilled offensive player than anyone on those two teams. Colby came back against Wesleyan because Hudnut came alive in the second half. With Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 still out, Dan Wohl ’15 will once again have to make a ton of plays on offense. Wohl is now the front-runner for NESCAC Player of the Year and after averaging 30.0 PPG last weekend. For Colby to keep pace with the potent Williams offense, they need their supporting players like Sam Willson ’16 and Ryan Jann ’16 to make outside shots.

Time to Invest: Stock Report 1/12

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What a weekend in the NESCAC. Could you have asked for a better first night of contests? Of the five games played on Friday night, four were decided by six points or less. Williams-Trinity went into double OT. A missed call by refs in Lewiston helped Bates to the win over Middlebury. Wesleyan had three shots from deep in the final seconds to tie the game against Colby but missed all of its attempts. And Connor Green ’16 came out of hibernation to lead Amherst to a victory over Hamilton, aided by the best offensive night of David George’s ’17 young career. The second round of conference games was only slightly less exhilarating, as Williams and Amherst played yet another classic and Tufts pulled a major upset over the suddenly suspect Middlebury Panthers. Suffice to say, Week 1 of the NESCAC season did not disappoint.

Stock Up

1. David George ’17

The Amherst big man is respected around the league for his defense, but he turned up his offensive game this weekend, scoring 29 points against Hamilton and 18 against Amherst, his highest totals of the season (the latter matching an 18-point performance in late December). George was 16-20 (80 percent) from the field and 15-19 (78.9 percent) from the stripe. Amherst is already one of the highest-scoring teams in the NESCAC. If George can be a consistent weapon on the offensive end while still maintaining his level of play on defense, Amherst will be dangerous and we could be witnessing the maturation of a future NESCAC POY candidate.

2. Colby Mules

Sure, they only beat the Wesleyan Cardinals by two and their nine-point win over the 7-6 Conn College Camels isn’t all that impressive, but for a team that came into the weekend barely over .500 getting to Monday with a 2-0 conference record is all one could ask for. This is a team with a lot of potential, which we’ve talked about before. For the second year in a row Coach Damien Strahorn is leaning heavily on his 2016 class, and they all played great this weekend. Last year the Mules could make the excuse that they were still young, but now that the core of this team is in its third year, they need to start getting the results. Maybe this was the first step towards accomplishing that.

3. Tufts’ Guard Play

We raved about the Tufts’ front court before the season started, but with Hunter Sabety ’16 out yesterday the Jumbos dominated Middlebury. Coach Bob Sheldon shook up the starting lineup, inserting Drew Madsen ’16, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18, and no one responded better than the usual starting point guard, Tarik Smith ’17. Smith went 5-7 from the field, 2-2 from deep and 8-8 from the line for 20 points, netted two steals and only turned the ball over twice in 28 minutes. Against one of the NESCAC’s best one-on-one defensive guards in Jake Brown ’17, Smith was able to penetrate and cause havoc. Ben Ferris ’15, who just hasn’t been his old self on offense this year, had eight points, but they all seemed to come at big moments. Newcomer Vinny Pace ’18 showed some impressive touch inside and creative moves as he added eight points, and Stephen Haladyna ’16, another usual starter relegated to the bench, chipped in 11 points in his second-best shooting night of the year, percentage-wise. Tufts is still 5-7 overall, but 1-0 in the games that count the most.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury Panthers

You had to see this one coming. A few days after we gave them the top spot in our composite power rankings, they go and do something like this, losing a tight game to Bates and them getting blown out on Sunday against Tufts. As was noted on Twitter, basically the entire Middlebury roster was fairly ill on Friday night, so much so that there were rumors (the accuracy of which we will never know) that the game might be moved to another date, so props to them for gutting it out and making it a close game, but I don’t think we can say that, two days later, sickness was the reason that the Jumbos stomped them by 17 points. I don’t see this weekend as being indicative of a problem in the future, and I still think Middlebury can and will compete for a NESCAC title. But, I would be concerned that some of the negative attitude that seemed to creep up on the Panthers last season could resurface. I hope I’m wrong.

2. John Swords ’15

Maybe a bit of a surprising pick, because Swords certainly didn’t play badly this weekend, but as I noted in the power ranks last week, Bowdoin needs Swords to be a force if they are going to make it back to the NCAA tournament, and 17 points in 60 minutes of play isn’t going to cut it. Swords was pretty much his typical self in the rebounding and blocks categories, and still discourages anyone from setting foot in the paint with the ball, but I was banking on Swords elevating his game for the NESCAC season. Consider this a challenge, Mr. Swords.

3. Jayde Dawson ’18

The Fairleigh-Dickinson transfer came to Amherst with big expectations at the beginning of the season, and at this point we can probably assume that those expectations were a little bit too much to put on Dawson right away. After a couple nice games in a row, Dawson got one point, two rebound and zero assists in just 16 minutes in the Lord Jeffs’ biggest game of the season against rival Williams. Much like Michigan-Ohio State, in order to be one of the greats at Amherst, you have to beat Williams, and it seems like Dawson wilted under the bright lights. But, if last year was any indication, there’s a good chance that these teams meet again before the season is over, so Dawson should get a shot at redemption.

Kevin App Has Williams Prepared for NESCAC Play

Dan Wohl '15 has emerged as a star as Williams tries to keep the standard represented by the banners behind him. (Courtesy of WritingScots.Wordpress.Com
Dan Wohl ’15 has emerged as a star as Williams tries to keep the standard represented by the banners behind him. (Courtesy of WritingScots.Wordpress.Com)

Editors Note: Adam Lamont contributed to the Williams-Amherst preview

After starting the year with back-to-back losses in the first year of the Kevin App regime, the Ephs have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games. That one loss was to #7 WPI by only two points. Now that it has come time for conference play to begin we wanted to highlight what has gone well and what has not so far for Williams.

Successes

1. The senior leadership of Dan Wohl ’15, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, and Ryan Kilcullen ’15: All three players have been averaging double digits which is huge for what is a very young team that got hit hard from graduation losses and Duncan Robinson transferring to Michigan. Wohl has increased his points per game by about seven and his rebounds per game by two. He has been the go to guy all year for the Ephs. Rooke-Ley’s success at getting to the charity stripe and converting there has been well documented all season as he is shooting a remarkable 94.2 percent there on 81-86 attempts. Kilcullen has seen dramatic increases in all of his stats due to increased floor time by increasing his points per game and rebounds per game by five.

2. Defense: Despite losing a lot of big defenders, the Ephs have managed to keep their points per game allowed at basically the same level as last season. Yes, they are allowing 72.0 PPG, the highest mark in the NESCAC, and at a nearly 42 percent clip, but that is actually lower than last year when the Ephs allowed 72.8 PPG and still made the National Championship. Because of their personnel Williams is at a disadvantage rebounding the ball, but their defense has been good enough for them to win. If they can maintain this level, they should be fine because the offense is so good.

Failures

1. Depth: Coach App has heavily relied on six players to eat up most of the minutes and sparingly used his bench in non-conference play to date except to give guys very brief rests. Williams under Coach Maker last year had a similar rotation set up and it worked. It will be interesting to see how Coach App decides to go forward with his use of players in conference play.

2. Turnovers: The Ephs as a team are averaging about three more turnovers per game than last year. In their three losses this year, they are averaging close to 17 turnovers per game compared to around 12 in their victories. Even though most of the rotation handles the ball well, the Ephs can force the issue too much at times.

3. Field Goal Percentage: While the three point shooting percentage has increased this year, overall the field goal percentage is about six points lower than last year. The loss of Michael Mayer ’14 in the post has robbed Williams of high percentage shots inside. If the Ephs are going to be as successful as last year, they need to manufacture a way to get higher percentage shots in NESCAC play.

Weekend Outlook

The Ephs did not get any favors in the opening weekend of NESCAC play drawing the Trinity Bantams at home on Friday and the 18th-ranked Amherst Lord Jeffs at home on Saturday. Both teams should be competing for home games in the NESCAC playoffs.

Trinity presents an interesting challenge for the Ephs as they have a very tight defense that packs the paint and also forces a lot of steals. Williams has been turning the ball over heavily in their losses and if Trinity’s defense can knock it away from the Ephs, I think the Ephs need to watch out. This game is a battle of styles as Trinity wants to slow the game and make it a grind while Williams prefers a more wide open flowing game. Interesting to see if the Ephs are caught looking ahead to the marquee matchup vs. Amherst and possibly have a slip up against Trinity.

Now to the game the whole league is looking at, Amherst vs. Williams. These two teams had great battles last year both in the NESCAC and NCAA tournament and all NESCAC fans are lucky that we get to see these two heavyweights go at it in the first conference weekend. Both teams came into the year with lofty expectations (perhaps too lofty) after making it to the Final Four but have underperformed relative to them. The massive losses of talent on both teams has hit them hard.

For the Ephs it starts with the captain Wohl. He is the go to guy for them and he’s still improving. He has scored more than 20 points in each of the last four games. If the Ephs are going to win, it rests on his shoulders along with fellow sharpshooter Rooke-Ley. They have relied on both these guys all season so expect the same to happen against Amherst. Although the Ephs defense has been performing at the same level as last year, it’s still currently the worst ranked defense by points per game. Their defense could be a huge issue as Amherst has numerous threats on the court led by stud newcomer Johnny McCarthy ’15.

Williams will be playing with a huge disadvantage in size against Amherst. The Lord Jeffs have so many talented big men like 6’8″ David George ’17 and 6’8″ Jacob Nabatoff ’17 that Coach Dave Hixon has changed his rotation and kept two big men on the court at most times. The Ephs already struggle on the boards, and the Jeffs are formidable all across their lineup in terms of height. Kilcullen needs to be able to at least slow down Amherst in the paint. App might have to resort to a zone in order to alleviate the height difference and force the Amherst guards to make shots from the outside.

Dan Aronowitz ’17 is the other crucial piece for Williams inside. He is an undersized power forward, yet he could present a major matchup problem for Amherst because of his ability to shoot from the outside and slash to the basket.

On the Amherst side, life after Aaron Toomey ’14 has not been completely smooth. The Jeffs have had to pull out a lot of close games in order to get to 8-2, but their win on Tuesday at #21 Eastern Connecticut gives the team a lot of confidence coming into the weekend. The point guard position is unsettled as neither transfer Jayde Dawson ’18 nor Reid Berman ’17 have really claimed the position. Though Dawson has started every game, he does not look comfortable running the offense and does not do a great job of getting others involved with only 2.4 assists per game. Berman is more reliable but defenses know he does not like to shoot and lay off of him. Toomey is back with the team as an assistant coach starting this weekend after an injury ended his season in Spain. Maybe his presence will help the point guard play.

The one upperclassman on Amherst, Connor Green ’16, has been a major disappointment to many. After he averaged 17.9 points in 2013-2014, we expected him to take another step and compete for the league lead in scoring. Instead, he has dropped down to 13.2 PPG and seen his shooting percentages take a dive. Green is taking harder shots and is only making 29.3 percent of his threes. Those feeling better about Williams than Amherst can point to the divergence in play between Green and Wohl as a major reason. The freshman McCarthy and Jeff Racy ’17 supply most of the outside shooting.

Though Hixon has started the same starting five every game, the Jeffs do not seem like a finished product. They certainly look physically like the best team in the NESCAC, but there has yet to be a game where they play like they are capable of. This Williams-Amherst game does not have the stars of last season, but the talent level on both rosters is still very high. It is still too early to know whether this is a crucial conference clash or merely one of the many steps in shuffling out the conference hierarchy. What we can be sure of is that as always, the two teams will bring us plenty of fun.

Power Rankings: 12/3 Edition

Malcolm Delpeche '17 dunks against Colby (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Malcolm Delpeche ’17 dunks against Colby (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Still early on in the season, and having very few inter-conference games to look at, we give you the power rankings thus far. Given that it is early, last year’s results still linger but hold less merit now than our preseason predictions. This week we’ll look at what’s working  and what’s not for teams around the league.

1. Middlebury (6-0) – Quick out of the gate were the Panthers as they have earned this weeks number one spot. As predicted, Middlebury is led by senior Dylan Sinnickson ’15. The 6’5″ forward is in the top five of the NESCAC in rebounds per game (12.3) and points per game (19.5). That isn’t to say that Sinnickson is the only source of power for this team. Scoring 86.3 points per game, second to only Amherst, and only allowing 65.3 points per game from their opponents, Middlebury is rolling over most of their opponents thus far.

2. Amherst (4-0) – After only playing four games, Amherst has still proven to retain its high-octane offense that fueled its success last year. The Jeffs lead the league in points per game with 94, in part because of their depth on offense. In their first three games, their leading point scorer has been different every game, all with 17 points. In addition, two of their big-name players, F David George ’17 and G Connor Green ’15 are nearly matching each other in points scored, George with 13.7 and Green with 14.0, respectively.

3. Bates (6-0) – Bates has showed its determination to avenge last year’s disappointing season. Their victory over Colby last night asserted that they have exorcised their demons and are much more balanced as well going forward. Their early season victory over Babson is also looking better after Babson beat Bowdoin handily. A jack of all trades kind of team, they are middle of the pack in points scored (73.7) and points allowed (66.0), but so far their consistency on both ends of the floor seems to be a huge factor in their success.

4. Hamilton (6-0) – The story of Hamilton’s quick start stems largely from their success on defense. So far, they are first in the league in points allowed with 58.3 per game. The Continentals lead the league in steals (8.8) and blocks (5.7) per game, which has allowed them to get quick points in transition. Ajani Santos ’16 has been a large part in solidifying their defense with a league leading 2.6 blocks per game. It will be interesting to see how Hamilton’s defense holds up against the skillful stock of NESCAC players after Christmas break.

5. Bowdoin (4-1) – The Polar Bears are off to a good start this season, led by center John Swords ’15. The 7’0″ center is leading the team in points (14.8), rebounds (11.2), and blocks (1.6). Many of the worries about the defense have not come to roost as opponents are averaging only 59.6 points. The next few days will tell us a lot about how good this team really can be. Bowdoin faces Bates and Colby this week in non-conference action.

6. Williams (6-2) – Williams has had a decent start but has shown some weakness with the loss of the Michael Mayer ’14 and Taylor Epley ’14, along with Duncan Robinson ’17. After starting 0-2, the Ephs have put together a six game winning streak. While their offense has been strong, averaging 81.5 points per game, their defense has been a point of struggle for the Ephs. So far they have allowed 72.4 points per game, which is second to last in the league. Defense wins championships, as they say, so it is crucial for Williams to shore things up in this area if they want a shot at the championship.

7. Trinity  (4-2) – Although Trinity has all five starters returning from last year, so far they have yet to put it all together. Recent weeks have seen some improvement after a very uneven start. Seeing as it is still very early in the season, their is room for much improvement from the Bantams who are scoring under 70 points per game. The Bantams are still trying to find their star player (guard Jaquann Starks ’16 appears the guy most likely to step up) who can lead them down the stretch.

8. Wesleyan (5-2) – The Cardinals have looked very good on paper, scoring 75.6 points per game and allowing only 61.1, and although they have two losses, they are still in a good position for a successful season. Losing to Williams in overtime 85-77 shows that they can play with teams ranked above them.

9. Colby (5-3) – While records don’t tell the whole story, Colby’s less-than-desirable start has dropped them to number nine in this weeks rankings. They are a good 5-3 team at that, as they lost to Bates by only 6 and held them to under 80 points, Colby has plenty of time to gain ground in the league. Forward Chris Hudnut ’16 has been in control of this team, and the league at that, with 82 rebounds (1st in league) and 160 points (2nd in league) thus far. Look for him to continue to take control of this team later in the season.

10. Tufts (2-3) – The Jumbos are off to a tough start, despite all the talent they have going into this season. Their number one issue at this point has been on offense. Averaging a league worst 60.6 points per game has put more pressure on their defense to keep them in games. Tufts will need more consistent production from their starters. Center Hunter Sabety ’17 so far has put up 14.0 points per game, good, but not good enough unless he can find more offensive help from his guards.

11. Connecticut College (2-3) – Conn College rounds out the power rankings at number eleven, and so far they have struggled in both phases of the game. Offensively, they are ranked 8th with 73.2 points per game, and defensively they are at the bottom, allowing their opponents 76.4 points per game. Center Zuri Pavlin ’17 brings a force under the basket, leading the league in rebounds per game with 12.4, but like Tufts’ Sabety, needs more help from the supporting cast to get the Camels back on track.

Amherst Team Preview: Jeffs Reload, Not Rebuild

Coach Dave Hixon cuts down the nets.
Coach Dave Hixon cuts down the nets.

Amherst Lord Jeffs

2013-2014 Season: 27-4 (9-1 NESCAC), first in NESCAC, won NESCAC tournament, reached NCAA Final Four

Head Coach: David Hixon, 37th year

Starters Returning: 2

G Connor Green ’16

F David George ‘17

Breakout Player: Eric Conklin ’17

Conklin is a 6’6″ 235 pound forward who transferred from the University of Arizona this year. He is yet another big body who will punish NESCAC teams in the post. Playing time might be hard to come by because of all the other front court players on the Amherst roster, though. If he can show that he has a developed mid-range or three-point shooting game, then he will carve out an important role for the Jeffs.

Projected Starting Five:

Jayde Dawson-Gordon (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Jayde Dawson-Gordon (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

G Jayde Dawson-Gordon ’17

Dawson-Gordon arrives in Amherst as a transfer from Division-I Fairleigh-Dickinson. He had a fairly (I crack myself up sometimes with this stuff) disappointing freshman year, and transferring down is not an automatic indicator of success. Still, with no established point guard on the roster, the opportunity is there for Dawson to take the job and run with it, but returners Jeff Racy ’17 and Reid Berman ’17 will also push for minutes in the backcourt, and both had strong season openers.

 

Connor Green (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Connor Green (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

G Connor Green 

Green is the seasoned vet that returns this year for the Lord Jeffs. With the losses of Tom Killian ’14, David Kalema ’14,  and Aaron Toomey ’14, Green has huge shoes to fill as the experienced leader on a young team that has only one senior. After averaging 17.9 points per game and 5.8 rebounds, Green could be in the running for Player of the Year honors in 2014-15. He is a bull of a player who is a somewhat streaky shooter from the outside. He will have a lot more responsibilities in creating offense for the Jeffs later in the shot clock.

Johnny McCarthy (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Johnny McCarthy (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

G Johnny McCarthy ’18

It seems like Amherst tends to have a high impact freshman more often than not, and McCarthy is that player this season. His jump shot bears a passing resemblance to that of departed guard/forward Killian. He should bring a similar skill set as an athletic slasher and defender who is the college equivalent of the NBA’s 3 and D player. His ability to play from day one is vital given the dearth of experienced guards on the Amherst roster.

 

David George (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
David George (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

F David George

George is a freak of a Division-III athlete. He became a major factor when Pollack (see below) succumbed to injury last year, and only got better as the year progressed. He is a difference maker on defense, where he swatted 80 shots last season, and despite only averaging 23.7 minute per game, he hauled down 5.9 rebounds per contest. He will likely be asked to do a bit more on the offensive side this season, and he should be up for the challenge. George only netted 6.6 points per game but was very efficient, shooting at a 53 percent clip. Get ready for a monster season from the sophomore.

Ben Pollack (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Ben Pollack (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

F Ben Pollack ’16

Pollack is no slouch on the defensive end himself, as he swatted 23 shots in his injury-shortened sophomore campaign, and was even better than George from the floor, shooting 57 percent with 8.1 points per game. With George and Pollack together with all the other big men coming off the bench, teams will have a hard time in the lane on both sides of the court when they match up with Amherst. The 6’8″ Jacob Nabatoff ’17 got the start over Pollack in the season opener, but the two played similar minutes. Expect this division of playing time to continue unless one player separates himself.

 

Everything Else:

The Lord Jeffs are coming off their third straight NESCAC Championship and a Final Four, but were shocked by the Ephs in the NCAAs after topping Williams thrice during the season and NESCAC tournament. They have a lot of talent to replace since Toomey, Kalema and Killian, all double digit scorers last season, graduated, yet Amherst still comes in at number two in the D3Hoops.com preseason poll. The coaching staff expects that they will rely heavily on George and Green to carry the load. It will be interesting to see if the two D-I transfers, Dawson and Conklin, can make an impact from day one. They have flown relatively under the radar but it shouldn’t be long until word spreads about them both.

Junior captain Pollack, recovering from an ACL injury, was cleared not long ago to return to practice, so he may have to work his way back into the rotation slowly, but once he is healthy he will be a force for Amherst. In the meantime, Nabatoff, a face up shooter who can stretch the floor, will get a good chunk of minutes in the front court along with George and Pollack. Despite all the question marks resulting from the graduation of the spectacular 2014 class, Hixon has proven that he is able to reload, not rebuild, and Amherst should be just as much of a player in the NESCAC and NCAA title races as ever.

Basketball Preseason All-NESCAC Teams

This year appears to be one of the most open races for All-NESCAC in recent years. Only John Swords ’15 (First Team) and Chris Hudnut ’16 (Second Team) return to the NESCAC after Matt Hart and Duncan Robinson transferred and the rest of the players graduated.

Each of us goes through our own individual First and Second Teams. We don’t want to ruin the surprise in order to make you watch the video, but we promise that some of the selections might raise a couple of eyebrows.