The Jumbos have a lot to celebrate after destroying two NESCAC opponents this weekend. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
I hate to say I told you so … but I did. Of the 10 NESCAC games played this weekend, I correctly picked the winner in eight of those ball games, and one of the games I got wrong – Middlebury over Wesleyan – was in my favor anyway because my team won.
All gloating aside, it was a great weekend of NESCAC basketball for prognosticators and lay folk alike. Predictably, Amherst asserted their dominance over rival Williams, and on the other end Hamilton slumped to an 0-2 start, although both were close games. In the middle, though, there were any number of surprises. Middlebury beats Wesleyan, then loses to Conn? And Conn is 2-0? And so is Tufts, after scoring 194 points and allowing less than 70 per game? And the Ghost of Graham Safford ’15 inhabited Shawn Strickland’s ’18 body on Friday night? Vinny Pace ’18 is a star? Ed Ogundeko ’17 is a scoring machine? This is insanity!
Stock Up:
Tufts PG Vinny Pace ’18
Pace has been putting up good scoring numbers all season and it’s gone relatively unnoticed around here. No longer. The point man had two of his best games of the season and in limited minutes because both contests were blowouts. He’s become the main initiator of the Tufts offense, handling the ball and starting the motion, which is a huge testament to his abilities with a playmaker like Tarik Smith ’17 on the roster. Pace has good size and has been finishing around the rim, while also shooting over 40 percent from deep while taking 5.0+ three pointers per game. He’s our pick for Player of the Week.
Conn College
The Camels were 0-10 in the NESCAC a year ago, and now are miraculously 2-0. They beat Hamilton and Middlebury by a combined five points, but wins are wins, after all. They were able to outlast Hamilton down the stretch by making free throws and shut down the Panthers defensively on the last possession to prevent a game-winner from Middlebury. For a team that is relying heavily on a couple of freshmen, the poise they showed in their first two conference games goes a long way towards making the Camels a contender. They still have a long way to go before they can be considered serious threats to the top tier, but this was a good start.
Middlebury Freshmen
I’ve got to give some love to the youngest Panthers. Swingman Zach Baines ’19, guard Hilal Dahleh ’19 and forward Eric McCord ’19 all played significant minutes this weekend, averaging between 17.5 and 23.0 mpg. It began in the first half against Wesleyan on Friday when the Cards opened up the game with a double digit lead. Coach Jeff Brown immediately went to the youngsters, and they showed up. The Panthers have a top four that they can rely on – F/C Matt Daley ’16 and guards Jake Brown ’17, Matt St. Amour ’17 and Jack Daly ’18 – but Coach Brown is still hunting for the right combination of guys to share minutes with that unit. Perhaps he’s come a bit closer to finding that mix.
Stock Down
Bates Defense
Bates did well to slow down an explosive Colby team, but I’m more focused on the second game of the weekend. Lucas Hausman ’16 now has 43.0 ppg in his last two games against Bates. Excuse me? I don’t know who to blame. I would have expected Mike Boornazian ’16 to be tasked with stopping Hausman, but he wasn’t matched up with the NESCAC POY very often, perhaps allowing him to preserve his energy for the offensive end. The Bobcats could have tried more zone, to stop Hausman from getting eight looks from deep, and they sent him to the line 17 times, which is not a good strategy. Sometimes, great players just beat good defenses, but when it happens two match ups in a row it no longer looks like a fluke.
Colby Offense
As mentioned above, the Mules’ severely underperformed this weekend, particularly on the offensive end. Colby scored under 77 points just once in the Mules’ first 11 games, then put up 69 and 65 on the weekend. Of course, the defensive intensity is turned up in NESCAC play, but Colby failed to rise to the occasion. On the season, Colby is averaging 84.4 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting but shot just 40.0 percent this weekend. Their opponents, Bates and Tufts, have one thing in common – a dominant interior defender. Chris Hudnut ’16 struggled for the Mules, and perhaps Colby just isn’t equipped to compete with a team that has a strong front court.
I don’t feel like picking on anyone in particular, so we’ll end the stock report there. Don’t worry, we’ll have plenty of mean things to say in the coming weeks.
Connor Green ’16 and the Lord Jeffs are at the top of the ranks. What else is new? (Mark Box, Clarus Studios, Inc.)
There are a lot of teams in the NESCAC that have performed very well so far this year, but everything changes once conference play begins. Will Amherst continue playing to their potential? Is Colby a real threat to go deep in the tournament? Is Tufts’ fast pace sustainable? Check out the initial power rankings to get a closer look at how each NESCAC team has done so far this year.
1. Amherst (10-1)
Coming into the year, Amherst was a clear favorite to win the NESCAC. They lost next to nothing from last year’s roster, and their younger players such as Jayde Dawson ’18, Michael Riopel ’18, and reigning NESCAC ROY Jonny McCarthy ’18 all gained valuable experience that has already provided dividends here early in the season. Amherst has played some low-talent teams this year, but what’s important is that they’ve beaten these teams in convincing fashion. Amherst has also played some very solid teams – Babson, Eastern Connecticut and Rust – and has showed that they can, in fact, win close games. In their one loss this season, to Rhodes College, Amherst shot just 6-11 from the free throw line. Additionally, McCarthy and Connor Green ’16 combined to shoot just 11-32 from the field, 3-15 from beyond the arc, and attempted zero free throws. Though Amherst has a deep bench, the Lord Jeffs can’t rely on the bench to carry the scoring load. McCarthy and Green can’t keep missing 12 threes a game between them and expect to win in conference play. Regardless, I expect that this will just be a blip on the radar and the Lord Jeffs will get back up to speed when they open up NESCAC action in Amherst tonight against their bitter rival, Williams.
2. Tufts (9-2)
Last year, Tufts was 4-7 when they faced off with Middlebury in their first conference game. With a new and improved offense, and a much more mature team, Tufts stands at 9-2 and is ranked #22 nationally as they prepare to host Bowdoin tonight. Their new run-and-gun offense has propelled their scoring average from a NESCAC-low 67.6 ppg last year to 84.1 ppg this year. Last year, Tufts was 10th in the NESCAC in free throws made per game and ninth in free throw attempts per game, but this year they are first in both categories, averaging 21.7 points from the line per game! The Jumbos are winning games against strong teams by putting pressure on their opponents. They gang rebound on defense and then push the ball up the court. On the other end, they crash the boards hard, pulling down 13.3 offensive rebounds per game. Obviously, Tom Palleschi ’17 is leading the team in rebounds, but it has been Vinny Pace ’18 that has anchored the offense this year. It seems that Palleschi is fine with his decreased scoring role, however. He has instead focused more on his defense, shown by his leap from 2.4 bpg to 4.2 bpg. The key for the Jumbos this year has been balance. They use a lot of guys in the rotation, and, so far, this has led to success for them. As long as they can stay in control at such a fast pace, I’m anticipating more success with this style against conference opponents.
3. Wesleyan (11-1)
Wesleyan heads up to Middlebury tonight riding an 11-game winning streak, and over 12 games they have allowed just 65.6 ppg, which ranks third in the NESCAC. The Cardinals have built this impressive record with their stifling defense, which causes havoc for opposing ball handlers and forces turnovers. Wesleyan leads the conference with 7.9 spg, allowing for easy run outs. Though Coach Joe Reilly’s team has struggled with turnovers a bit themselves, they are also forcing their opponents into taking bad shots, which is why they’ve had so much success. On the offensive side of the ball, BJ Davis ’16 has stepped up his game immensely this year, and is scoring nearly eight points per game more than he did last year. In some ways, this could be worrisome for the Cardinals; though it’s great that Davis has been such an effective scorer this year, the team as a whole is depending on him to put up his 19.1 ppg, as Joseph Kuo ’17 is the only other Cardinal averaging over 10.0 ppg. I’m anticipating that Davis’ numbers will drop in conference play, opening the door for other players to step up and continue Wesleyan’s hot start.
4. Colby (10-1)
After starting off the season with a 98-92 overtime loss to Staten Island, the Mules have reeled off 10 straight wins, two of which came in back-to-back games against Bowdoin and Bates. However, besides those two victories, none are very impressive. Regardless, 10-1 is nice, and we will see if Colby is as good as they look when they have a rematch against Bates tonight and then head down to Somerville to take on Tufts tomorrow. Colby’s success thus far has come through their five senior starters, particularly center Chris Hudnut ’16 and forward Ryan Jann ’16, who average 16.6 and 17.3 ppg, respectively. The reason these players are able to score so consistently stems from Colby’s team-first approach. Every player on the team is looking to make the extra pass, and each of the five starters records at least two assists per game. Colby’s 19.2 apg leads to open shots, which is why Colby is currently second in the NESCAC in scoring. If Colby can continue to share the ball so effectively, it will be a tough task to take them down.
5. Williams (8-3)
The most remarkable part of the 8-3 record the Ephs have posted so far is the youth that this teams rolls out there day in and day out. Of the seven players with appearances in every one of Williams’ games this season, four are freshmen. Though the Ephs are definitely led by Daniel Aronowitz ’17, Kyle Scadlock ’19 has made a big splash so far this year, exemplified by his 12.4 ppg and 6.7 rpg numbers. I think that the best showing that Williams has had this year is in their two-point loss to Wesleyan. Though Wesleyan did miss 14 free throws in that game, Williams showed they could play defense against a legitimate NESCAC title contender, allowing only 58 points in the game. In the same game, Aronowitz stepped up big-time, scoring 27 of his team’s 56 points. If Aronowitz can continue to hold down the fort for a bit, I think Scadlock’s fellow freshmen will become more comfortable, making Williams a dangerous team as the season progresses.
6. Bowdoin (7-3)
As expected, Lucas Hausman ’16 is off to a hot start for the Polars bears. Through 10 games, Hausman is averaging 24.7 ppg, highlighted most recently by his 35-point performance against Bridgewater State. Since an out-of-conference loss to Colby a month ago, Bowdoin has won four straight, and look to continue that streak tonight against Tufts. As we enter NESCAC play, a huge part of Bowdoin’s success will lie in the hands of Jack Simonds ’19, who has put on quite a show in his bid for NESCAC ROY so far. As a forward who relies on his perimeter shooting, Simonds will be tested in a conference where there are very few teams that play two natural big men. Against Tufts, for example, it’s likely that Simonds will be defended by Vinny Pace and Stefan Duvivier ’18, both of whom are long and athletic, which will make it difficult for Simonds to get his shots off from deep. However, if Tufts or other NESCAC opponents focus primarily on shutting down Hausman, Simonds will have opportunities to launch from deep and will the Polar Bears to victory.
7. Bates (7-5)
Five losses in 12 games is not great, but minus a stretch of three losses in December, Bates has been pretty solid so far this year. Even in those three losses, the Bobcats played pretty well, losing by four each to Colby (in overtime) and Southern Vermont, and by just seven to WPI. Those three teams are all very solid squads, so Bates should not be disappointed with these losses. What is a bit worrisome, however, is allowing triple digits in their other two losses, but luckily for Bates, those two games seem to be anomalies. In wins this year, the Bobcats have been able to keep opponents to just 65.0 ppg, in large part due to the imposing presence of the twin towers down low, Marcus Delpeche ’17 and Malcolm Delpeche ’17. On the offensive end, Mike Boornazian ’16 leads the way with 15.6 ppg. An encouraging sign for Bates is that Boornazian put up 23 points and seven rebounds against Colby, showing that he will indeed be the primary scorer once conference play rolls around. Regardless, what Bates needs out of Boornazian and the Delpeche brothers is consistency, because they really don’t have any other major scoring threats besides those three guys.
8. Trinity (8-4)
It’s pretty easy to look at Trinity’s losses and think that they are getting snubbed with a #8 nod here, but take a closer look. Sure, they’ve lost to solid teams, but do they have any good wins? Not yet. Trinity has not won a game by single digits, and that’s because they have not been able to beat any the good teams on their schedule. The Bantams started the year ranked 12th in the nation, and have since fallen out of the ranks because they have not shown the ability to win a close game. Against Eastern Connecticut, for example, the Bantams we’re actually up by six at the half, but went on to shoot 26.5 percent from the field in the second half and ended up losing by eight. Against Springfield, Trinity turned the ball over 10 times in the first half alone. It has been a trend in all their losses that Trinity has struggled to put together 40 minutes of good basketball. Nonetheless, I have faith that Jaquann Starks ’16, Ed Ogundeko ’17 and Shay Ajayi ’16 can help turn around the Bantams in the second half. Trinity has played good defense all year, so if they can turn things around on offense they’re still in fine position to finish in one of the top four spots in the NESCAC.
9. Connecticut College (7-3)
Conn College has showed a little life this year due to the play of freshmen David Labossiere ’19 and Tyler Rowe ’19. Both players have stepped in and made a huge impact so far, complementing the continued success of sharpshooter Lee Messier ’18 and big man Zuri Pavlin ’17. Rowe, a natural point guard, has done a great job attacking the paint, knowing when to shoot and when to dish. Labossiere, arguably the most athletic freshmen in the NESCAC, rebounds decently well and knows how to finish around the rim. As the Camels face off against NESCAC teams we will learn whether or not these promising young players have made the Camels a competitor in the NESCAC as their three-point loss to a solid SUNY-Canton team suggests. I think that the answer to that question is going to come down to whether or not Conn can slow down their opponents in shooting the basketball, as they currently allow opposing teams to shoot 42.5 percent from the field, the second-worst mark in the league.
10. Hamilton (7-4)
Hamilton, like Williams and Connecticut College, is a team that has been powered primarily by their freshmen so far this year. Peter Hoffmann ’19 has been the main bright spot so far for the Continentals, a freshman star who has stepped in and filled the hole left by the departure of Joseph Lin ’15. The freshman guard is averaging 13.5 ppg through 11 contests this year, and is doing most of his damage inside. While Hoffmann can step out and hit the three here and there, he has a knack for getting to the hoop, and as a result, gets to the free throw line every game. Another freshman bright spot has been Andrew Groll ’19. Groll isn’t a natural scorer, but he is pulling down 7.1 rpg. I think the early season success can be attributed to Hamilton’s players working together and accepting their individual roles on the team. Though they are last in the league in assists, there is no one player that does the majority of the scoring – eight guys are piled in the 3-10 point range, and just two, Hoffmann and Jack Dwyer ’18, are averaging double digits. I am not expecting a lot out of Hamilton in league player this year, but in the next couple years I expect them surge onto the scene as their young core matures.
11. Middlebury (6-6)
The Panthers are off to a tough start, and their mediocre offense is mostly to blame. Middlebury is having trouble winning games primarily because of two main factors: three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Middlebury is ranked second-worst in the NESCAC in made three-point field goals per game with just six. They’re also ranked 10th in made free throws per game, where they hit just 58.6 percent. With such low numbers at the charity stripe, especially in combination with such a lack of outside shooting ability, Middlebury’s only chance is to play absolutely stellar defense because you can’t expect them to shoot that much higher than the 45.5 percent mark that they’re hitting shots at. To their credit, Middlebury has done a solid job on the defensive end of the court. They’re forcing turnovers and difficult shots out of their opponents, but their lack of offense is ultimately the Achilles heel for the Panthers. Matt St. Amour ’17, Jake Brown ’17 and Matt Daley ’16 have done what they can to put the ball in the hoop, but they don’t really have anybody else who can score the ball. Middlebury is in the midst of a rebuilding period, and I don’t anticipate them making a playoff appearance this year.
Like the rest of us, Bates Head Coach Jon Furbush is sick of this nonsense. Let’s play some NESCAC basketball. (Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
Through about one month of the season (factoring in the time off for the holidays) NESCAC teams are a combined 87-33. Ten of 11 teams have records over .500. No teams remain undefeated, but Amherst, Wesleyan and, surprisingly, Colby all only have one loss. Babson, a Final Four team a year ago that took out Trinity in the Elite Eight and brought back Player of the Year candidate Joey Flannery, is 7-4, with all four of those losses coming against NESCAC teams. Amherst is ranked ninth and Tufts 22nd, with Trinity, Colby and Wesleyan knocking on the Top 25 door.
Suffice to say it’s been a successful start to the year for the NESCAC, all things considered. Because of the location of some of the member schools (read: Middlebury, Bates, Bowdoin, Colby and Hamilton, especially), NESCAC teams often face weak schedules to open the season because there just aren’t many quality teams around. That’s why it’s critical for teams to find good competition in tournaments early on. Trinity lost by five to No. 11 Susquehanna on Dec. 11 in Pennsylvania. No. 12 WPI has already bested Tufts and Bates this year. Wisconsin-Stevens Point walked all over Hamilton in Arizona on Dec. 30, and No. 20 Oswego St. handled Middlebury back in November. Colby actually beat No. 18 Mount Union down in Orlando last week. And lest we forget, the NESCAC’s success against Babson has knocked the Bobcats out of the Top 25. Win or lose, the teams that have seen this high level of competition will benefit this weekend when the intensity turns up and there are no more easy games.
Below we will give you a brief preview of each matchup (mind you, that’s 10 games, so forgive our brevity), the player or matchup to watch and a prediction. I’m supremely confident that most of our predictions will prove to look foolish this time Monday morning.
Middlebury at Wesleyan, Friday 7 PM
This is a really tough opening game for the Panthers, but if they match up well against any of the top teams in the NESCAC, it’s definitely Wesleyan, and they catch the Birds early on when they’re still nursing a few battle scars. Middlebury crushed Wesleyan 97-60 last year, and Wesleyan’s roster is basically the same, though the Panthers have lost their two best scorers. The matchup to watch is between point guards BJ Davis ’16 and Jake Brown ’17. Talk about quickness and flair, this duo has it in spades. Both teams are guard-heavy, so that’s likely to be a wash. If either front court can take over offensively, that unit’s team will win the ball game. Despite Middlebury’s struggles, their defense is underrated, so expect this to stay tight throughout.
Prediction: Wesleyan 68 – Middlebury 61
Hamilton at Conn College, Friday 7 PM
A matchup of two teams struggling to make the playoffs consistently, this is basically a must-win if either squad hopes to achieve that goal. Hamilton has been impressive early on with some talented young players, but the same could be said for Colby. We talked about three of those guys (and gave an honorable mention to another) on Wednesday. Conn’s Zuri Pavlin ’17 has been one of my favorite players to follow the past two seasons because he’s a double-double machine, but his numbers are down a little bit this year, and Hamilton has a rebounding fiend of its own in Andrew Groll ’19 than can neutralize Pavlin’s impact on the boards. Outside of Pavlin, Conn does not rebound well. Neither team is particularly strong defensively, but Conn has a little more juice on the offensive end right now, so I think they’ll eventually pull away. Plus, being at home, especially this early in the year when teams aren’t used to weekend travel, could be a bonus.
Prediction: Conn 82 – Hamilton 72
Bowdoin at Tufts, Friday 7 PM
Prior to the season, I would have guessed this would be a blow out. Now, however, with the emergence of Jack Simonds ’19, Bowdoin has a legitimate 1-2 punch, and I’m not sure anyone can stop it. On the flip side, I am pretty certain no one at Bowdoin can stop Tom Palleschi ’17. Palleschi is the man to watch. The Polar Bears will need to throw some double teams at the lefty, but in their favor is the fact that they can roll out a few forwards to slow him down, while there is very little front court relief for Palleschi. and if he stays out of foul trouble (a big if), this is going to be a comfortable, though not easy, win for the Jumbos. I have no numbers to prove this (perhaps we will compile some at some point – any stat nerds out there with some free time?) but I believe that if we had strength of schedule numbers Tufts would be near the top of the list. For the last two years they’ve been 13-12 and just some chemistry or flow or voodoo away from being really, really good. Maybe this is the year.
Prediction: Tufts 78 – Bowdoin 72
Colby at Bates, Friday 7 PM
The Mules’ MO this season is score the basketball, and they’ve done that quite well. They can shoot the three (39.9 percent), get to the line (282 FT attempts, second in NESCAC) or just throw it into big man Chris Hudnut ’16 (16.6 ppg). Even though we expected Bates to present a unique problem on defense for its opponents with the Delpeche twins in the middle, teams have been scoring at a pretty rapid clip against the Bobcats (72.1 ppg, 42.4 FG%). That could result in a recipe for disaster for Bates tonight. Colby SG Ryan Jann ’16 is the man in this one. I don’t see anyone that can stop him from Bates, and he had a cool 19 points on 6-9 shooting in their last meeting, when Colby won just 78-74 in Waterville, but the Mules also shot well below their season averages. If they can play to their potential, Colby wins this one.
Prediction: Colby 80 – Bates 70
Williams at Amherst, Friday 7 PM
When these two teams meet there is always an added level of intrigue. All-time, Williams holds the 119-97 (55.1%) advantage over Amherst, though recent history has favored the Lord Jeffs. Between 2012 and the 2014 NESCAC Championship, Amherst won eight straight contests. Miraculously, Williams broke the streak in that year’s NCAA Semis, then won again in the teams’ first meeting of 2015. Amherst won the last contest 86-76 in OT. Amherst is definitely the favorite coming into this one, as they will be in ever game unless someone knocks them off. They have far more experience, and as we’ve noted before, the 2015-16 Williams squad is similar in make up to the 2014-15 Amherst team. Dan Aronowitz ’17 plays the role of Connor Green ’16, leading a talented squad deficient of seniors. Simply put, Amherst has the advantage at every position, so a big game from young point guards Chris Galvin ’18 and Bobby Casey ’19 who have had to take over for the oversized production of the injured Mike Greenman ’17. Unless those guys have huge games, it’s going to be over early.
Prediction: Amherst 85 – Williams 73
Colby at Tufts, Saturday 2 PM
Saturday begins with an exciting matchup of two teams trying to prove that they belong. Both could be 1-0 coming in, but don’t surprised if they are both 0-1. That’s the beauty of NESCAC basketball. This should be a fun one to watch as both teams know how to put the ball in the hoop, ranking second (Colby) and third (Tufts) behind Amherst in points per game. In the second game of a back-to-back, the bench becomes more important, so which role player can step up and make the difference will be a difference-maker. Tufts goes a little bit deeper in its rotation, and a guy like Drew Madsen ’17 might need to chip in 10 points or so for the Jumbos. Palleschi is going to be working his butt off as the focal point of the Tufts attack against Bowdoin, and either fatigue or foul trouble could force him to the bench for stretches in this one.
Prediction: Tufts 89 – Colby 87
Hamilton at Wesleyan, Saturday 3 PM
This seems like a slam dunk for the Cards … and I think it probably is. Crazier things have happened, but I don’t see anyone stopping BJ Davis, and I doubt that the Continentals will be really sharp in their second game of the weekend because of their youth and inexperience. The X-factor for Hamilton still has to be Ajani Santos ’16. Santos has been a staple on this team for the past few years, last season averaging 10.5 ppg and 5.6 rpg while starting 23 games. This year he has 1.6 – just 1.6 – ppg and is only on the floor for 13.5 minutes per game. Coach Adam Stockwell wouldn’t reveal what the issue was, but there’s clearly something going on here. Santos has been in the starting lineup the last few games, though, so maybe things are finally coming around. Joseph Kuo ’17 is a strong interior presence for the Cardinals, but as we know their team strength is guard play and the bench doesn’t run very deep, so a coming out party from Santos could swing the tide of what is otherwise bound to be a lopsided affair.
Prediction: Wesleyan 69 – Hamilton 59
Middlebury at Conn College, Saturday 3 PM
A couple of years ago, this game would have been a cake walk for the Panthers. Now, it’s hard to even pick them as a favorite. Conn is still untested, but they have some interesting pieces. Zuri Pavlin is a known commodity, even though his numbers are down so far this year, and Lee Messier ’18 is taking the expected step forward and turning into a go-to scorer, but newcomers Tyler Rowe ’19 and David Labossiere ’19 look like the real deal, too. Forward Isaiah Robinson ’18 missed the first few games of the year, played the next six and then missed the last contest with the Coast Guard, but he’s a solid body that can bang down low and bring toughness, and don’t forget about Bo McKinley ’16, the incumbent at point guard, surpassed by Rowe, who brings three-point shooting off the bench. Conn has all the pieces to pull a fast one on the Panthers. The key for Middlebury is point guard Jake Brown. Perhaps it’s unfair because I watched Joey Kizel ’14 run the show for two years, but my sense is that Brown needs to drive this team if they are going to make it back to the playoffs.
Prediction: Conn College 78 – Middlebury 73
Bowdoin at Bates, Saturday 3 PM
I’m predicting that Tom Palleschi and the Jumbos will be able to stifle the Polar Bears, but I think that Bowdoin will break out in a big way against Bates. Simply put, who is going to guard Lucas Hausman and Jack Simonds? Mike Boornazian is a great offensive player, but I’m not convinced he can stop Hausman, and Simonds is going to be an issue for either Mike Newton ’16 or Marcus Delpeche ’17, whomever Bates chooses to throw at him. The Bobcats don’t even get the benefit of the Alumni Gym crowd, as classes don’t begin again until Monday. It’s an unfortunate time to waste a home weekend for Bates, and I think Bowdoin can take advantage.
Prediction: Bowdoin 81 – Bates 71
Williams at Trinity, Sunday 2 PM
Finally, we get the NESCAC debut of Trinity, last year’s top regular season team. Even though the Bantams lost a few important players, there seemed to be enough holdovers in place for Trinity to stay near the top of the heap. The losses of defensive stalwart Hart Gliedman ’15, multi-talented forward Alex Conaway ’15 and center George Papadeas ’15 have hurt more than expected. As a team, Trinity is still playing strong defense, holding opponents to a mere 35.5 field goal percentage. They just can’t put the ball in the hoop. Starks and Rick Naylor ’16, in particular, need to shoot the ball better, but it could be a big game for Ed Ogundeko ’17. Long an enigma for his impressive rebounding rate in limited minutes, Ogundeko has made some strides offensively out of necessity. He’s a true center, something that is lacking from many NESCAC rosters, and if he can manhandle Williams’ Edward Flynn ’16 then Trinity can shake off the early season struggles and start the NESCAC sched 1-0.
Connor Green ’16 has had his ups and downs, but he’s the leader of a 7-0 Amherst squad and coming off of a 39-point performance against Babson. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Our effort so far this basketball season has been a little bit lacking, I will admit. As happens with this stuff, school work is getting priority over NESCAC sports blogging (somehow my mom thinks one is more important than the other. Imagine that!). Luckily, I’ve got a little window to give a quick overview of where teams are right now before they take their holiday break. I haven’t seen every single team play yet but I’m getting there.
1. Amherst (7-0)
The only undefeated team left in the league, Amherst is playing more to the level of their talent this year than it did last. As hinted at in the beginning of the year, Coach Dave Hixon has decided to go to a lineup of four shooters surrounding one big man for long stretches, including the starting lineup. He has done this type of lineup in years past, and the Jeffs don’t actually give up a lot in size since Jeff Racy ’17, Michael Riopel ’18, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 all go 6’5″or 6’6″. They are outscoring teams by 24.7 ppg so far, but a lot of that is because when it is a blowout late, Amherst’s back of the bench is still better than the teams they have played so far. Don’t get too excited when the Jeffs blow out teams by 30 because of that depth factor.
2. Wesleyan (7-1)
As many expected, the two finalists from the NESCAC championship game a year ago are the class of the league, with the Cardinals showing that their late run last year was no fluke. Their only loss to Lyndon State is a puzzling one, but it was in the first game of the season and by just two points, 80-78, so we will let that one slide. The balanced attack of last year where anybody could be the leading scorer for a given game has yielded to an attack led by BJ Davis ’16 who is averaging 19.7 ppg on 52.4 percent shooting. Davis has also kept his assist and turnover rate at the exact same as last year, so the ball being in his hands a lot has been a good thing. He also was responsible on Saturday for the game winning shot against Williams.
Nobody plays a harder season opening schedule, and the Jumbos have walked the tightrope to get to 6-2. Three of their wins have come by three points or less, though one of their losses is also by only three points. At this point last year, against a similarly difficult schedule, Tufts was 2-6 (many of those losses were close, too). Turning those close losses into wins I think is a factor of the Jumbos’ perimeter players becoming the leaders scoring-wise. It is easier to get baskets at the end of games with guards than big men. Vincent Pace ’18 (18.3 ppg) is becoming that go-to guy on the perimeter, and other guys like Tarik Smith ’17, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Stephen Haladyna ’16 give more scoring punch out there. That has made the lack of scoring from star center Tom Palleschi ’17 (11.0 ppg) not too much of an issue.
4. Colby (5-1)
The Mules might chafe at this spot since their only loss was in overtime in the first game of the year, but they also needed a Ryan Jann ’16 three to beat a 2-5 Regis team by a point. I got to see them play on Saturday against Bowdoin, and the skill on offense is there to play with anyone. All five starters are threats to score the ball, and they do a great job of moving the ball. They lead the league with 19.5 apg, and the return of forward Patrick Stewart ’16 as someone capable of filling it up from deep is a big help. I worry about their defense which is the third-worst in ppg with 76.3. Some of that is because Colby likes to play at a fast pace, but it is still frustrating that a team with five seniors can’t play better team defense.
5. Williams (5-2)
Only one member of the rotation is a senior, two of the three top scorers are freshmen, and two starting guards are injured. Yet the Ephs are 5-2 and had an early 16-point lead over Wesleyan before ultimately losing on that BJ Davis shot. Starting point guard Mike Greenman ’17 could be back for their next game, and shooting guard Chris Galvin ’18 is also supposed to be back after Christmas. I suppose it’s better for the Ephs to be injured early on, as it’s allowing more young players to get minutes. Their game tomorrow against Springfield, a team that beat Trinity, will be another good benchmark for the young team.
6. Trinity (4-2)
Maybe this is a little bit of a disappointing start for the Bantams, but they had some questionable non-conference losses last year also and then went 9-1 in the NESCAC. Neither of their losses are particularly bad, and Coach Jim Cosgrove is also playing a very deep rotation at this point of the season. At a glance, the statistics for their big three of Ed Ogundeko ’17, Jaquann Starks ’16, and Shay Ajayi ’16 aren’t great. Then you realize that none of them is averaging more than 25.0 mpg. So while Ogundeko’s 12.5 rpg is already fantastic, it becomes flat out ridiculous when converted to per 40 minutes: 21.0 with the next closest player at 15.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. The bottom line is the Bantams have the best scoring defense and second-best rebounding margin so far. They are going to be good come NESCAC games.
7. Bowdoin (4-3)
My dear Polar Bears could have really used that win over Colby Saturday, and even though seven feels low, this is a good team, albeit with some potentially killer faults. Two of their three losses are by a combined six points. Lucas Hausman ’16 is a menace, but he isn’t a superhero. Colby did a good job in their win over the Polar Bears of harassing him and not allowing him to get to his favorite spots. Hausman still had 22 points, but it took him 22 shots to get there. For me, I’m interested to see how the identity of the team evolves. Will they become run-and-gun, completely abandoning the ethos of last year, or will they try to still retain some of that defensive identity?
8. Bates (4-2)
Bobcats fans might be a little mad at me for putting Bowdoin over them, but the Bobcats don’t have as good a win as Bowdoin does over Babson, though that Babson loss looks worse and worse every time a NESCAC team wins in overtime against the Beavers. Anyways, the loss of Graham Safford ’15 has not hurt this team offensively at all. Bates is averaging 86.8 ppg, second best in the NESCAC. Mike Boornazian ’16 is the man leading the way with 15.5 ppg. Most encouraging is that the three-point production of not only Safford but also Billy Selmon ’15 and Adam Philpott ’15 has been replaced by guys like Shawn Strickland ’18 and Josh Britten ’16. Britten barely played at all last year, and his shooting is valuable to open up space inside for the Bobcats.
9. Conn College (5-2)
Guess what, the Camels are hot right now! They’ve won five games in a row, and they just had their best win of the season over a 6-3 Eastern Connecticut team that beat Trinity earlier this week. Point guard Tyler Rowe ’19, who had 22 vs. Eastern Connecticut, has very quickly become a starter and is providing a huge spark with 12.3 ppg and 3.1 apg. David Labossiere ’19 is playing so well that the coaching staff can’t keep him off the court, and he just started his first game of the season. Some players are taking smaller roles because of it, but the Camels are playing well together. And don’t look now, but they play vs. Hamilton and Middlebury, the two teams below them in our rankings, in the first weekend of NESCAC play. Could they really open 2-0 in the NESCAC?
The Continentals are 5-3 even though they are essentially playing without their top three scorers from last year. I say essentially because Ajani Santos ’16 is actually still on the roster and playing, but he is averaging just 1.6 ppg. He has actually been playing more and even got the start last game against Hobart. However, he scored just two points and continues to be somewhat of a mystery. If he is able to get everything straightened out, he would join Peter Hoffmann ’19 and the others on this young nucleus to make a pretty intriguing team. As it is, without him Hamilton is reliant almost entirely on perimeter scoring.
11. Middlebury (4-5)
Do I think Middlebury is the worst team in the NESCAC … well maybe, actually. At this point I can’t put them above anybody. Two of their five wins are blowouts against an 0-8 Johnson State team, but there are a couple of close losses to RPI and Skidmore. The statistics say that Middlebury is 4-5, but again that is colored by those two games vs. Johnson State. Granted, I’ve only been able to watch them for stretches online, but what I’ve seen hasn’t looked great. They have nobody who can score inside besides Matt Daley ’16, and nobody besides Matt St. Amour ’17 looks to be an average or better three point shooter. And they’re young. Daley and Connor Huff ’16 are the only seniors making an impact. We’ll see.
Andrew Hurd ’16 with the ball in the Sweet Sixteen Game vs. Bates. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
At the end of the 2014-15 regular season, Trinity stood at 19-5 and atop of the NESCAC with a 9-1 conference record. After beating Colby in a close NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup, the Bantams fell to Wesleyan by 3 points in the semifinals. Trinity posted a good enough record and strength of schedule to be granted an NCAA Tournament at-large bid by the NCAA selection committee, and Coach Cosgrove and the boys went dancing. They grooved their way to the Elite 8 beating Colby-Sawyer, Salisbury, and Bates — only to hear the music fade in a heart wrenching overtime loss to Babson. The NCAA March Madness run was Trinity’s best since 1999 when they lost to Connecticut College in the Elite 8. Their lone Final Four run came over a decade ago, and the 2015-2016 Bantams have plans to top that ’95 Final Four banner hanging in Oosting Gymnasium this year.
In the off-season, Head coach James Cosgrove was awarded NESCAC Coach of the Year, while assistant coach Tyler Simms took an assistant job with Brown basketball, and three new assistant coaches have hopped on in Sean Flynn, Ed Quick, and Alex Conaway ’15. Despite the Bantams losing some size after graduating six seniors, they return their most talented players and acquired some up and coming talent to help replace those losses. Trinity came into the season ranked as the 12th best team in the nation, but dropped to 18th in the most recent “D3hoops.com” rankings.
“We recognize it as a good and a bad thing […] based on the fact that every team wants to play their best against us and beat us […] This group is very different from last years group, and we have to actually accomplish something and not be complacent with what we accomplished last year. […] the vets know what’s expected by leading with positivity, as well as addressing things that people have to improve upon for us to have the successful year that we look forward to.”
-Ed Ogundeko ’17
2014-2015 Record:
23-7 overall; 9-1 NESCAC (1st); Lost to Wesleyan in NESCAC Tournament semifinals; Lost to Babson in NCAA Elite 8.
Head Coach: James Cosgrove, 6th season, 71-59 (.546)
Returning Starters: Two
G Jaquann Starks ’16 (14.1 ppg, 2.1 apg, 43.6% 3PT) F Shay Ajayi ’16 (10.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.6 spg)
At this point, Coach Cosgrove seems set on his starting lineup, which will feature four proven seniors along with experienced junior center Ed Ogundeko ’17, who started the first 10 games last season. Andrew Hurd will be running the point; he was effective down the stretch getting starter minutes and proved he can distribute and handle the ball with ease. With Hurd at point guard this year and Starks holding down shooting guard, it will allow Cosgrove to get the most out of his starting five. It is tough to win with just five guys though; Chris Turnbull ’17 will serve as a spark plug off the bench.
Projected Starting Lineup:
Guard Andrew Hurd ’16 (5.0 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.6 A/TO)
Andrew Hurd transferred to Trinity as a junior last season. While only starting 5 games last year, he did a good job handling the ball and got a lot of minutes off the bench (21.2 MPG). So far this year Hurd has been hot on 6-12 shooting and posting a 6.7 (20/3) Assist to Turnover ratio which is what you need out of your point guard. His quickness should add some spunk as he had 42 steals in his 2015-16 campaign.
G Jaquann Starks ’16 (14.1 ppg, 2.1 apg, 43.6% 3PT)
Jaquann Starks, a 2015 NESCAC First Teamer, will certainly be a key for the Bantams this year. No doubt about it—he can shoot the lights out, which is a big reason to why he is leading the team with 58 points this season. With Starks moving to shooting guard he is able to get more quality shooting looks, and it should prove beneficial for the Bantams down the stretch.
G Rick Naylor ’16 (5.4 PPG, 36.3% 3FG, 1.6 APG)
Rick Naylor played in every game last year and started 5 games, averaging 5.4 points per game. He was second on the team in 3-pointers shooting 36.3%. With Naylor starting at small forward and Starks at shooting guard, look for the Bantams to be a threat from 3-point land. Naylor is a strong 6’3 body at small forward and should play a much more prominent role this year.
F Shay Ajayi ’16 (10.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.6 spg)
Shay Ajayi’s senior leadership is seen on and off the court, and the Bantams will benefit from him staying consistent as the year progresses. He got off to a hot start this year posting a double-double in the first two games. His season totals for points sit at 9.8 PPG, third on the team. He is a body that is wasted on the bench, and his lengthy, athletic 6’6 physique makes him a staple down low. He is averaging 10.o RPG, and the Bantams need him to continue that production given the loss of other big men to graduation.
F/C Ed Ogundeko ’17 (9.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG)
Ed Ogundeko is Trinity’s big boy standing at 6’6, 235 pounds with a powerful build. He has a lot of potential and will play a large role for the Bantams this year. Ogundeko is doing a good job supplying the team with buckets, as he is second on the team with 14.3 PPG in the first four games. Being solely a center this year is working out for the Bantams and Ogundeko, who is averaging a double-double so far.
Breakout Player: Chris Turnbull ’17
Bantam Junior Chris Turnbull, a small forward from New Jersey, has waited his turn. He is a threat from beyond the arc, and his 6’4 long build tailors him as a good defender and rebounder. He only averaged 14 minutes per game as a sophomore, but in his first game this year he spent 28 minutes on the hardwood compiling 9 points and 8 rebounds while showing some confidence attacking the basket. If Turnbull’s 3-point game heats up, he will be a big time help for the Bantams. If you flashback to exactly one year ago, Turnbull caught fire and dropped 17 points on Springfield, going 3-4 from distance helping Trinity to an 81-76 win.
Everything Else
Losing a couple key big men from last year in Alex Conaway ’15 and George Papadeas ’15 will certainly put pressure on Ajayi and Ogondeko. Expect a lot from the two 6’6″ bash brothers this year, as they have combined for a total of 5 double-doubles in their 1st four games back. There is a 3rd (little) bash brother in 6’5 freshman Connor Merinder who will get his minutes down low. Conaway’s presence on the bench as an assistant coach will help keep the big men in line. The return of Starks is going to be vital for this team. His ability to shoot the ball matches that of championship caliber scorers, and when Starks gets hot there is no stopping him. Hurd will take on a more prominent role as the point guard, which will allow for Starks to be a pure shooter off the ball.
Chris Turnbull ’17 and Eric Gendron ’18 have come into their own this year, and will be key players off the bench with Gendron averaging 7.5 ppg so far. Langdon Neal ’17 transferred from American University this year and has seen 13.3 mpg while averaging 4.0 ppg. Coach Cosgrove feels he is still adjusting to Trinity’s playing style, so look for him to gain presence as the season continues. Freshmen Erick Santana ’19 and Paul Colson ’19 have done well with their time on the court and Coach Cosgrove will keep them warm on the bench. With Trinity hanging on to their three top scorers from last year in Ajayi, Ogundeko, and Starks, they could match or even surpass last year’s great performance.
Oh sweet lover, so nice to see you again. The transition from the gridiron to the hard court is a quick one this year, and we would be lying if we didn’t admit that we are a tad bit under-prepared at the moment. Make no mistake, that NESCAC work ethic is already in gear, and we are getting up to speed very quickly. Team previews are going to be rolling out starting tomorrow morning, and we have our biggest group of writers yet contributing on them. That large group of writers, which includes writers from Middlebury, Bowdoin, Bates, Tufts, Williams and Trinity is one reason why we are so excited for the coming season.
The other reason is the depth of quality basketball teams in the NESCAC this year. You can start with the fact that 97.7 percent of the minutes played in the NESCAC championship game between Amherst and Wesleyan were done so by players who are back this year. Both the Cardinals and Lord Jeffs return practically their entire rotations from last year, and so one might assume that it’s a foregone conclusion that those two will once again meet each other in the NESCAC Championship game.
Oh, but you would be so so wrong. While those two, as well as Trinity, have to be considered the favorites out of the gate, other potential contenders are Colby and Tufts. Behind those teams are units like Bates, Bowdoin and Middlebury that have more than enough talent to beat anybody but also have significant question marks. Conn College, Williams and Hamilton are all also potentially dangerous.
I’ll avoid doing a brief overview of every team because you will learn so much about those teams in the Previews. Instead, here are what I think the biggest storylines for NESCAC basketball are this winter, presented in no particular order.
Still love this photo from the NESCAC championship game. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
How all that talent at Amherst works: Coach Dave Hixon has talent out of the wazzoo, and while there are obviously worse problems to have, it won’t be easy to figure out the rotation. If Amherst sticks to their rotation down the stretch last year, their backups will be PG Jayde Dawson ’18, SG Michael Riopel ’18, SF Jeff Racy ’17, PF Eric Conklin ’17, and most likely C Joe Schneider ’19. That unit could beat a lot of NESCAC schools straight up, no exaggeration. The lineup combinations are endless, and the Jeffs might spend the early parts of the season with playing Racy at power forward and having David George ’17 be the lone big man on the inside in charge of controlling the boards and protecting the rim.
The amount of points Lucas Hausman ’16 scores: The reigning NESCAC POY and D3Hoops.com Preseason All-American averaged 20.7 PPG overall and 24.7 PPG in NESCAC games, and at times it feels like he was put on the earth to put the ball through the basket in small D-III gyms. The potential problem for Hausman is that teams are going to game plan for him like crazy because of the loss of John Swords ’15 and Bryan Hurley ’15. What happens to Hausman if teams go box and one or play man but double him whenever he gets the ball? This story might not become as important until January when teams really devote time to game planning opponents.
Whether losing Hunter Sabety ’17 turns into addition by subraction: The talented big man for Tufts took his talents away from the NESCAC this summer and will be sitting a year off before playing at D-I Hofstra next year. Sabety was not healthy for much of last year anyway, and the Jumbos really only had one short stretch where they played well with him. His departure means that Tom Palleschi ’17 is the clear top dog on the roster, and the offense will flow through him. The Jumbos now need to find consistency besides Palleschi inside, but whoever plays there will not need to be an important part of the offense for the Jumbos to succeed.
The possibility Middlebury is even worse this year: This blog began as an evolution of PantherNation which focused almost exclusively on Middlebury basketball and football. Our forerunners were so accustomed to a high level of Middlebury basketball that they called their season-long documentary of the Middlebury program in the 2013-2014 season “The Road to Salem“, where the D-III Final Four happens. The basketball gods disapproved of that hubris, and the past two years have seen Middlebury fall well back into the pack with last year’s shocking miss of the playoffs the crushing final blow. This winter the Panthers return just one player who averaged double digits. The talent is there, but the Panthers need massive statistical improvements from several players to be good.
The number of impact freshmen: So much talent is back in the league this year, especially among the top teams, that freshmen might struggle to crack the rotation. Some schools like Williams and Bowdoin are relying on at least one freshmen to immediately contribute, but there are more teams that are already close to filling their rotation with just the players who are returning. I’m personally loathe to identify in the preseason what freshman are going to make a big impact because I’m not an expert at interpreting high schoolers’ tape, but a lot of freshman are entering with impressive pedigrees. We’ll see how long it takes for them to make it matter where it counts.
The upside of Trinity: Even though they lost in the NESCAC Semifinals, the Bantams still had clearly the best season of anyone last year going 9-1 in conference and being 24 seconds away from going to the NCAA Final Four. The top three scorers – Jaquann Starks ’16, Shay Ajayi ’16 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 – are all back, but the Bantams lost a good deal of depth, particularly in the front court with George Papadeas ’15 and Alex Conaway ’15 graduating. Two young front court players are going to have to become rotation players in part because Ogundeko is frequently plagued by foul trouble. The Bantams will probably play everybody close, which will make them fun to watch.
Also, our coverage will wane a little bit during the month of December. After all, not only is it non-conference games going on, but we also will have Finals to attend to. Just consider this a little forewarning. We will be full tilt January on though. Great Scott, are we excited!
The Bantams hosted the first round of the NCAA Tournament, won both games and advanced to the Sweet 16, where they beat Bates. (Courtesy of Bantam Sports)
Season Record: 23-7 (9-1, Lost NESCAC Semifinal to Wesleyan, lost NCAA Elite Eight to #4 Babson)
It was the year of the “others” this season in the NESCAC, the “others” being anyone but the triumvirate of Amherst, Williams and Middlebury. While the Caesarian Amherst went through a rocky season but ultimately made it back to the NESCAC Championship game and made some noise in the NCAA Tournament, the Pompeian Williams and Crassī Middlebury (sorry for the Ancient Roman indulgences) fell well short of their own hopes and dreams. Therefore, the time was ripe for someone else to approach the throne, and this year no one did that better than a pair of Connecticut teams. While Wesleyan got the best of Trinity in the NESCAC Tournament and ultimately won the title, Trinity posted the best NESCAC record, earning the right to host the NESCAC Tournament, and forged through the NCAA field all the way to an overtime game in the Elite Eight.
The Bantams fought the perception all year long that they were an all-defense, no-offense squad, exploding for 80 or 90 points a few times. Jaquann Starks ’16 was a constant threat, and on any given night someone was bound to emerge and join Starks in the scoring binge – Rick Naylor ’16, Shay Ajayi ’16, Ed Ogundeko ’17, George Papadeas ’15, Alex Conaway ’15 or anyone else was liable to have a double-digit scoring night at any time. Meanwhile, the Bantams’ vaunted defense continued, allowing a league-best 62.7 points per game. In their three NCAA Tournament wins, Trinity allowed less than its average, permitting 55, 47 and 62 points over those three games.
High point: NCAA Sweet 16 win over Bates, 79-62, March 13
Losing in the NESCAC Semifinal had to be a big let down for the tournament favorites, but this mid-round matchup with the Bobcats served as a de facto championship as the Wesleyan Cardinals watched from home. Trinity dominated for the final 26 minutes of this ball game, putting to rest any doubts about the best team in the NESCAC over the course of the entire season. Yes, it would be nice to have that piece of NESCAC hardware in the trophy room in Hartford, but the excitement of the Bantams’ NCAA run can’t be matched.
MVP: PG Jaquann Starks ’16
Starks won’t take anybody by surprise next season. He’s one of the NESCAC’s best point guards. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Trinity was one of those teams that really played team basketball. As I mentioned already, everyone on their roster could contribute offensively, and defense is by definition dependent on five guys playing well together. And yet, Starks rose above the rest, especially with his NCAA Tournament performances. Starks scored 80 points over those four games, looking more confident offensively than ever before, and improved as the tournament went on. As Trinity fans know, Starks is really a combo guard, and often Andrew Hurd ’16 will take over more of a point guard role, but especially in the Bantams’ last two games they were able to just give the ball to Starks and let him attack the basket. As you might have noticed, we snubbed the Hartford native for our NbN All-NESCAC Team. Have no worries, Mr. Starks, you will be on the shortlist of All-NESCAC Preseason candidates next season.
Player to Watch in 2015-16: G Rick Naylor ’16
Rick Naylor ’16 (30) is known for his three-point shooting, but he can play some defense as well. (Courtesy of D3Photography.com)
Naylor played a lot of minutes this season (19.8 per game) and had some solid performances, including a stretch of four games out of five in double digits in late January and early February, but his role should expand next season with the graduation of defensive whiz Hart Gliedman ’15. This is just a hunch, but Naylor is my pick to slide into the starting lineup, instead of Hurd. The strategy of bringing Hurd off the bench as the sixth man, moving Starks to the two-guard and giving either another guard or forward a rest worked so well for Trinity this year that Coach James Cosgrove shouldn’t toy with that formula. Naylor is a dead-red shooter who hit 36.3 percent of his three point attempts this season and shot more threes than anyone on the Bantams’ squad not named Starks. I think that Naylor’s scoring numbers (5.4 per game this season) could easily double in 2015-16.
The Trinity defense made life really tough for Graham Safford ’15 in his last game as a Bobcat. (Courtesy of D3Photography.com)
Sometimes real life and other commitments get in the way of our NESCAC coverage, so we don’t have the time to put forth our usual comprehensive preview. Here’s a few brief thoughts about Friday’s action and Saturday’s matchup.
So, the Sweet 16 matchup between Trinity and Bates played out almost exactly as we had anticipated. Ugly basketball (27 turnovers combined), awful shooting (36.4 FG% combined), physical post play, foul trouble (50 combined), and a final score that would have been in the mid-sixties but for bunches of free throws at the end of the game (79-62). But damn was it entertaining. The margin didn’t stray beyond three points either way until late in the first half, when a Chris Turnbull ’17 triple started an 11-3 run for the Bants on which the half ended. Bates battled back a few times to keep it interesting, but the defense was too good and the shooting too bad for Trinity. Even though Bates went to the free throw line an astounding 42 times, they couldn’t make enough of those freebies to close the gap. Trinity now looks forward to Babson, a top-five team and the host of this Sectional, at 7 PM Saturday night.
What went wrong for Bates – The Facts
As the second half ticked away, Bates started feeling like they need to score points in bunches, but the Bobcats were unable to do that and ended up an abysmal 2-20 (10 percent) from three point range. All game long the Bobcats attacked the basket, but couldn’t hit free throws, finishing 28-42 (66.7 percent) from the stripe. Graham Safford ’15, who played much of the second half with his right knee in a wrap after coming down awkwardly – who knows how much that affected him – and Mike Boornazian ’16 shot 8-32 (25 percent) from the field. Hart Gliedman ’15 absolutely neutralized Safford in this one. We knew that the Bates guards had to play well and account for a lot of the team’s scoring if Bates was going to win. But they didn’t get much help, either. The Delpeche brothers tallied 26 points, but the rest of the team added up to just nine points (six for Billy Selmon ’15, three for Mike Newton ’16). And just like last time these two teams played, Trinity dominated the rebounding battle, grabbing 45 boards to Bates’ 32.
Looking forward to Trinity (23-6) at #4 Babson (28-2)
I’ve watched Trinity probably half a dozen times this year, and I’ve watched Babson for probably half a dozen minutes. I’m exaggerating, because I saw about a half of Babson’s game with Johns Hopkins last night, but in any case I don’t feel qualified to make a prediction of such an important game when I barely know one team. What I can say from the little bit I watched of Babson last night is that 1) they play really, really good man-to-man defense and 2) they pass the ball incredibly well.
Granted, most of that passing was against Hopkins’ 2-3 zone, so I don’t know how the Beavers will fare against Trinity’s tough man-to-man, but Babson should be used to that kind of intensity because they practice against themselves every day. Bates beat Babson earlier this season, but it would be a mistake to predict this game based off of common opponents. Trinity should still have an edge in the front court, as usual, but it’s not by much. I saw some nice moves from Babson’s 6’7″ senior forward John Wickey tonight, and I think the Beavers big men bring a much more skilled offensive game than the young Delpeche twins. On the other end, I wouldn’t be surprised if George Papadeas ’15, Alex Conaway ’15 and Ed Ogundeko ’17 account for less than 15 points combined.
I’m going to be pulling hard for the Bants tomorrow. I want to see a NESCAC squad in the Final Four. But from watching a little bit of Babson last night, I would have to say that the Beavers are favored. Again, I’m not making an official prediction. But if I were…
It’s not unheard of for two NESCAC teams to be meeting this late into the NCAA Tournament. As a matter of fact, it happened just one year ago when Amherst and Williams duked it out in the national semifinals. What is unusual, though, is to see Bates and Trinity, two schools not known for their basketball pedigree, still alive and starting to believe that a National Championship isn’t that far-fetched of an idea.
Let’s take a moment and think about where these two teams came from. You might have heard already, but Bates College is playing in its first-ever NCAA D-III Tournament, which has brought Bates alums out of the woodwork to support the current team.
“I’ve heard from players from the 1950s right up to last season. You win a few games and people become very aware of your basketball program.” – Bates Coach Jon Furbush to the Portland Press Herald,
Also, consider this: Bates was 1-9 in the NESCAC last year, the worst record in the league. Now, just over a year later, they are one win away from being the last NESCAC team standing. And when they look back on this season, there will be plenty of highlights from their NCAA Tournament run to remember. Bates’ players hope to add a few more before it is all said and done.
On the other side, Trinity had some experience with NCAA Tourney basketball before the season began. The only problem was that none of that experience came from the players. Head Coach James Cosgrove led Adelphi University to the D-II Tournament four times and Endicott to the D-III Tournament once as head coach. Assistant Coach Tyler Simms played on back-to-back NCAA Tournament teams at Trinity in 2007 and 2008, but never advanced past the first round. Now, the Bantams’ players have almost as much NCAA Tournament experience as their coaching staff.
Last time they met: Jan. 16 at Trinity. Trinity 66 – Bates 59
From 1-5, including #21 Alex Conaway ’15, Trinity can defend with the best of them. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
In a game that started a miniature two-game skid for the Bobcats that seems to have been the turning point for Bates, Trinity dominated the first half and held on for a six-point lead at home. It was an off shooting night for Bates’ two top scorers, Graham Safford ’15 and Mike Boornazian ’16 (6-21, 28.6 percent, combined). Meanwhile, Trinity spread the wealth, per usual, with three players in double figures, and played its patented shutdown defense.
“Trinity has proven all season long what a great defensive team they are and against us was no exception. They did a good job scouting us and identifying some of our tendencies, but we also didn’t shoot the ball anywhere near the level we’re capable of.” – Mike Boornazian
The game was incredibly evenly-matched statistically. The only differences came in the rebounding and free throw shooting departments, both of which Trinity dominated. The Bants outrebounded Bates 42-32, and hit 20-26 free throws, compared to 11-14 for the Bobcats.
A last bit of Trinity-Bates history to nibble on. Trinity leads the all-time series 31-13, dating back to 1947. The last Bobcat victory came in February 2013.
Storylines to Watch
1. Have student fan bus, will travel
Alumni Gym in Lewiston, ME gets pretty crazy sometimes for men’s basketball games. The Staake Gymnasium is going to feel a lot like Alumni on Friday night. The tiny Babson home court (650 seats, 1,000 capacity) will provide the ideal setting for the scores (dare I say, hundreds?) of Bobcats fans who will be traveling down via a school-organized fan bus. The bus seats 55 students, and the College sold an additional 50 for students who wanted to organize their own transportation. Trinity, meanwhile, goes on spring break starting on Friday, and many students have already taken off to enjoy better weather elsewhere.
Adding to the Bobcats’ home court advantage, potentially, is that Bates has already won two games at Staake, to open the season, at the Babson Invitational, including a three-point victory over the host Beavers.
“It’ll definitely be nice to get back on the court that got us off to a 2-0 start earlier this year. We all really liked the atmosphere that the gym provided, and we have a lot of Bates supporters in the area, as well as people who will be making the trip down. It’s going to be a fun time and always nice knowing we have Bobcat Country supporting us.” – Mike Boornazian
Trinity center Georgios Papadeas ’15 doesn’t see Babson Park as presenting a home court advantage for Bates.
“I don’t believe playing in Babson gives Bates an advantage. They didn’t win against us at that court so I believe that those two wins are irrelevant to Friday’s game.” – Georgios Papadeas
2. Frontcourt physicality
There were 42 fouls committed the last time these two squads competed, 25 by Bates. Max Eaton ’17 even earned four in just 13 minutes! Bates alone has committed 40 fouls in their two NCAA Tournament games. Both Delpeche brothers fouled out late against St. Vincent in the first round. For Trinity, they’ve faced some foul trouble in the Tournament but have managed to keep everybody on the floor. The personal foul numbers will be important to monitor in this one, though, as both teams feature tough front courts.
“I think both teams are very talented in that department. Trinity has an impressive front court, but I also think Malc and Marc [Delpeche] have consistently proven that they are two of the best big men in the conference. It’s going to be a great battle.” – Mike Boornazian
Statistically, both teams are similar in blocks per game (Trinity, 3.9; Bates, 3.3) and rebounds per game (Trinity 39.0; Bates, 38.4), but the Bantams had a significant margin in rebounding margin (7.3, compared to 4.9 for Bates). Nevertheless, Trinity recognizes the dangerousness of the Bates big men.
“The twins are a dynamic combo. I respect their toughness. From our part we will try to be physical and block them out. They are long and athletic and extremely dangerous. We can’t let them get going.” – Georgios Papadeas
Forward Mike Newton ’15 has a more aesthetic view of what makes the Delpeche duo so formidable.
“The best part is that they aren’t scared to bang on anyone.” – Mike Newton
When you get this look from Marcus Delpeche ’17, you know that you’re in trouble. (Courtesy of Phyllis Graber Jensen/Bates College)
That kind of protection at the rim allows Billy Selmon ’15 to pressure ball handlers on the perimeter and changes the offensive attack.
3. The efficiency of Bates’ guards
Even though Safford was an NbN All-NESCAC First Teamer and both he and Boornazian are 1,000 point scorers, no one would mistake the pair for a couple of Luke Westmans. Of NESCAC players that attempted at least 12.5 field goals per game (Safford has attempted exactly 12.56 FG per game, Boornazian approximately 12.7), Safford was the only player under 40 percent from the field, and Boornazian ranks fourth out of sixth. They’re both great players and among my first choices if I need to take a shot to win the game, but I think their below average shooting percentages will be particularly hurtful in this game where I don’t anticipate the Delpeches, Newton and Eaton grabbing many O boards.
4. The Trinity offense with Andrew Hurd ’16 on the court
Jaquann Starks ’16 is comfortable with the ball in his hands, but Trinity’s O runs smoother with Starks at the two-guard. (Courtesy of Hartford Courant/Peter Casolino).
Point guard Jaquann Starks ’16 gets all the press, but the Trinity offense is actually better when Hurd handles the ball and Starks shifts to the two-guard. I wish I had the advanced statistics to back up that claim, but keep an eye on this backcourt combination tonight and see for yourself. Starks isn’t much of a distributor and is probably Trinity’s best three point shooter. Hurd also brings some underestimated pesky defense to the floor with him, and can frustrate the opposing team’s point man. He gives up quite a bit of size and strength to Safford, though, so Hurd may be better suited to keep Selmon from making an impact on offense. For Selmon’s part, he will be blanketing Starks all day, which means that the pressure is on Hurd to make an impact offensively.
5. Late game execution
The Bobcats are looking for a shot at redemption against Trinity. (Courtesy of Portland Press Herald/Gabe Souza)
I would be shocked if this game turned into a blowout. Therefore, it will come down to which team executes better in crunch time, and who makes their free throws. Neither team was fantastic hitting free throws this season, but Trinity held a slight edge. When it comes to closing out ball games, the general perception is that Bates has the advantage because of the heroics of Safford and Boornazian. Sometimes nerves get in the way when players are unsure of what to do as the seconds tick away. That doesn’t happen with Safford.
“It’s amazing. There are times when I want to make a call in the game, and he’s bringing the ball up and before I even say it, he calls it. … He’s absolutely another coach on the floor. … I think what he does from a sheer leadership standpoint is the reason why we’re successful.” – Bates Head Coach John Furbush to the Sun Journal.
However, of the Bantams’ 22 wins, 10 have come by six points or less. And I don’t think that is because Trinity isn’t dominant. I think it’s because they enjoy playing in close games. When the going gets tough, the defense gets tougher, and teams have a brutal time getting buckets. Additionally, if Bates wants to put its best free throw shooting team on the floor, they’d have to take off a lot of the starters. Safford, is the only starter for Bates that shot over 80 percent from the stripe. Meanwhile, Trinity can put Starks (89.5 percent), Hurd (88.9 percent), Chris Turnbull ’17 (85.7 percent), Papadeas (78.1 percent) and Rick Naylor ’16 (77.8 percent) or Shay Ajayi ’16 (71.3 percent) on the court and not give up too much defensively.
Trinity X-Factor: Ed Ogundeko ’17
It had to be a big guy, right? Ogundeko was playing like a grown man down the stretch this season, putting up huge rebounding numbers and a couple of nice offensive performances despite not playing much more than 20 minutes per game. In the NCAA Tournament Ogundeko has played 24 minutes total. Coach Cosgrove has basically relied on his starting five plus Hurd to win ball games. But, in a matchup where both front lines go deep and I could foresee a flurry of fouls on either side, I think the time is ripe for Ogundeko to step back up. I don’t need big scoring out of him, I just need him to stop whichever Delpeche is feeling it at the time.
Bates X-Factor: Adam Philpott ’15
For Bates, it’s no secret that the starting five does most of the heavy lifting, but Philpott does a lot of the little things that make a team go. He can do a little bit of everything offensively, and fits right in with Coach Jon Furbush’s feisty defense. Boornazian called Philpott the best sixth man in the NESCAC. He’ll have to play like it to best the Bantams on Friday.
“For me embracing the role of sixth man with the talent that we have was very easy. … [Graham Safford’s and Mike Boornazian’s] ability to beat their defender and get into the lane creates a lot of open opportunities for me on the perimeter and it’s my job to knock them down.” – Adam Philpott
Prediction:
Before we go any further, let me say a big congratulations to both teams for making this unexpected run to the Sweet 16. That being said, I don’t think either squad would be content with calling it quits now. Both squads believe that they can win a national title for the first time in school history. And these have to be two of the toughest, grittiest teams in all of Division-III, which should make for some must-watch TV.
How is this one going to play out? Expect it to be back-and-forth all day. If Bates can grab some offensive rebounds that will lead to some easy buckets and make up for some of the guards’ missed jumpers. I don’t expect Trinity to shoot much better, though. This one could be ugly.
Don’t expect the crowd noise to get into the Bantams’ heads too much.
“As athletes though we have trained to focus on the game and block all other factors that don’t contribute to the game.” – Georgios Papadeas
I really don’t think, even down the stretch, that 100-plus screaming Bobcats fans will change the outcome of this game. Whether the crowd is cheering for or against you, there are bound to be jitters when you’re in a single possession game as the clock ticks down.
All right, enough preamble. I’ve gone back and forth on this game all day, so let me just make a pick and stick to it. I’m going with the Bantams, partly because they’ve beaten Bates before, partly because they’ve given up just 51.0 points per contest in the NCAA Tournament. Partly because, as Sean Meekins reported, Bates basketball wears seat belts on the bus. I jest, of course. Everyone should wear seat belts all the time.
So there it is. We’ve picked against Bates twice now, and gotten it wrong both times. We’ve also picked in favor of Trinity, and gotten it right both times. Something’s gotta give.
The Bates student body is ready to make the trip to Babson (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)
NothingbutNESCAC: In the lead up to the big game tomorrow night, we wanted to give everyone the chance to hear from some more, well, partisan viewpoints. We managed to get the student announcers for Trinity (Sean Meekins and Carson Kenney) and Bates (Connor Colombo and Rob DiFranco) on one email chain. We told them to lay out their arguments for why their respective team would win. All four also happen to play baseball, which added to the friendly banter back and forth.
Sean Meekins (Trinity): I honestly may not watch the game. If there is any chance of a college game being a shut out, it is this one on Friday night.
Connor Colombo (Bates): I completely agree with you man; Bates’ defense is that good that Trinity may be shut out. Good prediction on your part….
Carson Kenney (Trinity): What’s going on boys. Hope everyone is enjoying this Monday evening. Just want to clarify: is this the same Bates that Trinity beat by 7 earlier this year when Safford and Boornazian combined to shoot a glorious 6-26 from the field? Or is there another Bates in upstate New York or something?
Rob DiFranco (Bates): Remind us: Is this the same Trinity College Bantams that caught an L against a school called Merchant Marine who held a 2-11 record at that time?
CK (Trinity): Ahhh I knew this would come up. Let me take this Sean. That game actually was wild because somehow our women’s team showed up instead of the men’s team (classic mixup). Since it was our fault for the mixup, they decided to play the ball as it lies and count it as a real game.
Yeah I actually got nothing for that one. I was hoping neither of you two remembered that. Point: Bates, for that one. All sarcasm aside, Safford and Boornazian scare me since the generally accepted blueprint to winning March Madness is good guard play. So Starks/Hurd/Gliedman will have to step up. But I like our bigs over Bates bigs. Papadeas and Ogundeko will give Delpeche all he can handle. Plus Ajayi and Conaway typically cause match up problems at the 3/4
CC (Bates): College basketball is reliant on good guard play when it comes to the tournament as you said. Looking back to that match-up between Bates and Trinity earlier in the season, you mentioned that Bates lost by 7 with Boornazian/Safford shooting a poor 6-26 from the field combined. How have they fared in this tournament so far? Well, they are averaging 44 PPG combined, while Trinity’s leading scorers (Stark and Ajayi) have only averaged 25.5 combined, nearly a 20 POINT difference!! Not to mention the Delpeche twins and Boornazian have combined for 8 blocks down low while Trinity’s starting forwards have only combined for 4 blocks so far. So it seems Bates has the better offensive backcourt as well as the better defensive frontcourt right now….let’s just say that’s not a good thing for the Bantams as they are about to face a red hot Bobcat squad
CK (Trinity): No doubt Boornazian and Safford can play well. But as far as the Big Man block argument: Delpeche^2 and Boornazian have combined for 8 blocks but for Trinity, Ogundeko, Papadeas, and Conaway combined for 8 as well in both tourney games. Albeit, Ogundeko and Papadeas are rarely on the court at the same time, and Conaway, who’s a starter, has 4 of those 8. Kid can jump out of the gym and guard just about anyone.
As far as scoring goes, no doubt that Bates is heating up at the right time and again, Boornazian and Safford are a two-headed monster that no team wants to face right now. But from what I’m seeing, and was the case against Trinity last time, their shooting efficiency is pretty tough. Against Stockton, the two combined for 32 points, yes. But they combined to shoot 32 percent (9-28) which isn’t great offensive efficiency. One of the Delpeche twins had 17 points and shot over 50 percent but I’m going to assume a handful of those points from the field came off of clanks from Safford or Boornazian since he had 4 O-Rebs that game. Not to say this is bound to happen, but looking at season stats, Safford, who is the team’s leading scorer, is eighth out of 11 in shooting percentage of players for Bates who have played in more than 15 games (37.9 percent). He shoots two pennies over 30 percent from beyond the arc. However he is second on the team (by 0.1) in field goals attempted per game.
Trinity also held opponents to 38.2 percent shooting from the field this season (32.1 percent from 3-pt land) so I have a feeling the Bates offense will slow down a bit on Friday. For what it’s worth: Trinity faced a Colby-Sawyer team who had 2 players combine for 88 points in the two games leading up to their game against Trinity… they combined for 15 points against the Bants. Trinity also faced a Salisbury squad whose leading scorer put up 37 the night before against an Eastern Connecticut squad (that beat Colby this year by 21, the same Colby team that Bates beat twice by only a combined score of 11). Against Trinity, that player put up an earth shattering four (FOUR) points. Point being: Trinity’s defense welcomes team’s leading scorers with open arms.
Also, Bates players hate snow days. *Drops the mic*
Jaquann Starks ’16 driving against Salisbury last weekend. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
RD (Bates): As I take the microscope off of our All-NESCAC First Team PG and our most recent thousand point scorer (Boornazian as a junior) and their “poor” offensive efficiencies, I wanted to express some facts prior to this game. The game will be played at Babson College which might as well be in Lewiston, Maine. Bates has won two games on that court this season including against the nationally ranked Babson squad. Not to mention, carloads of intoxicated Bates students (driven by a designated driver) as well as local alumni will be filling up Staake Gym. Cat Country is notorious for getting rowdy and rattling opponents. That will definitely test the Bantams at the free throw line. In my eyes, Wellesley, Massachusetts looks a lot like home-court advantage for Bates and we know the Bobcats can do in their natural habitat (12-1 record at home). The Bants are going to have to look to their own team to gather some momentum because I don’t think there will be much in the bleachers.
On a less serious note, our team manager/supervisor of morale – Mike Tomaino – can beat your team manager one on one. Sent from night class, Spanks.
CK (Trinity): The one thing that jumps out to me on the Trinity side is the play of Shay Ajayi over the last month or so. The last time the Bants faced Bates, Ajayi scored only two points on 1-4 shooting. However in the last eight games Trinity has played (dating back to January 31 against Colby) Ajayi has put up double digits seven out of the eight games, all above his season average. This means he should have plenty of confidence coming into Friday night. If he plays like he has been lately, it will help spread the ball and give Bates more to worry about from an athleticism standpoint.
SM (Trinity): Bates basketball wears seat belts on the bus.
CC (Bates): Trinity basketball jumps from the free throw line.
CK (Trinity): Game, Set, Match: Connor Colombo. Also, I just saw Andre Drummond tweet at Boornazian? Can one of you guys explain that to me?
CC (Bates): Boornazian and Drummond go way back to the chain link net days in the backyard growing up. Both are good friends from Connecticut and still keep in touch very often. Mike has even lived with Andre during the summers and worked out with NBA stars like Kevin Love to improve his game. Yes, Andre has been to Bates before and yes, he did put on a show in Alumni during some pickup ball.
CK (Trinity): Since it’s the Sweet 16 and I’m feeling myself after predicting Trinity’s first round game point differential spot on and only being two off in the second round, I’m gonna say Trinity wins this one 76-73 in an overtime thriller. At which point I expect Mr. Colombo to write a hand written congratulatory note that can be delivered to the Larocque household where I will pick it up at Easter.
In all seriousness, this has all the makings for a great college basketball game. Wish we could be there. Best of luck to you guys this [baseball] season as well, except for the weekend of March 27.
SM (Trinity): Bates obviously has the home court advantage, which is garbage because Trinity is the higher seed. But I think the rest has helped Trinity recover after the battles this weekend. I think Trinity wins this one 64-59. I feel like their defense is going to come to play. It also helps Trinity that Bates wears ankle socks with black new balances, which is an absolute dusty look, and based on looks alone Trinity will pull this one off by five. It is unfortunate Trinity students will be on break because as the visiting teams know from hockey games, the fans are a major factor (Bates didn’t get the invite to the whole NESCAC hockey party). In other notes, mens’ hockey is going to the Frozen Four. If you want to throw that prediction into the mix, lock it up and throw away the key.
CC (Bates): Touché Carson. Although your score predictions may be straight out of a genie’s magic ball, I think putting this game into overtime is a bit of a stretch. I’m guessing Safford and Boornazian combine for a whopping 50 points and their three point shooting is above 45 percent. I don’t know what your relationship is with the Trinity basketball players, but us baseball players have a strong bond with the basketball team and I have never seen a more confident group than this one. Safford has done all he can this offseason and regular season to be ready for the position he is in now. The senior is ready to play the biggest game of his career. Philpott, Selmon, the twins, Newton, and Boornazian also know they all need to give their best efforts to push this team into the Elite 8. Final score: 72-65 Bates. Good luck to all the players participating in this ever so exciting NESCAC sweet sixteen matchup, and may the best team win.
Goodnight fellas… and no matter what the result, I’m sure we all want to see one of these NESCAC teams represent the conference in the Final Four. Connor Colombo, aka Bumbo, signing off.
SM (Trinity): Carson just said, “If they score 50 points, I will crab walk around campus for a week.” That’s how confident he is that this won’t happen.
RD (Bates): I’m gonna say Bobcats by six, 62-56, after cutting a halftime deficit. I don’t think Boornazian and Safford will combine for 50, but they’ll obviously contribute enough for Bates to win down the stretch. But if they do happen to combine for 50 I need some footage of this crab walk. Anyways, good luck fellas and hopefully a NESCAC squad will be represented in the Natty Ship. See you on the diamond.
CK (Trinity): Let the record show that I never actually said that…
