Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 returned in a big way against Hamilton last week, going 7-10 from deep in a Williams loss. Rooke-Ley and the Ephs welcome the Middlebury Panthers into Chandler Gymnasium tonight. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
We are just a few hours away from a full slate of Friday night NESCAC action. The top two teams in the conference meet in Hartford tonight, but every game is important and will have conference implications. Because of the driving snowstorms around the northeast, no team in action tonight has played since last weekend. Hamilton was the only team able to get any games in this week, but they are off until Sunday when they will travel to Middlebury (an exciting matchup given the upset that Hamilton pulled in the regular season last year).
Players to Watch Tonight
1. Forward Jacob Nabatoff ’17 (Amherst)
Nabatoff has seen his numbers wax and wane this season. He was playing 30 minutes or more for a period but as other players like Eric Conklin ’16 have returned from injury, he has played less in recent weeks. Nabatoff can be a frustrating player for Amherst fans to watch because he has the size at 6’8″ and skill to be a very productive player. But he is still a young player and he barely played last season so he is inconsistent. Colby’s defensive woes are well-documented, so Nabatoff could have a solid game tonight against the Mules.
2. Guard Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst)
Not to load up on Amherst sophomores, but in case you missed it, Berman has stolen the starting point guard role away from transfer Jayde Dawson ’18. Whether this move becomes permanent remains to be seen, but Berman has had two solid games in a row. The youngster is a pass-first type, who racked up 12 assists against just two turnovers combined against Williams and Trinity. Dawson’s minutes have shrunk in the last few games with Berman’s emergence, and with another solid game the sophomore could solidify his place as the starter.
3. Guard Matt St. Amour ’17 (Middlebury)
The Vermont native has been out since January 18 when he suffered an ugly-looking ankle sprain against Conn. College at home late in the game. The sprain wasn’t as bad as it looked, and St. Amour was able to limp to the locker room after the game, but it did keep him off the court for two games, and likely would have held him out on Tuesday if the snow hadn’t caused a postponement of Middlebury’s game against Lyndon St. The sharpshooter’s return will be huge for the Panthers this weekend. St. Amour has been a much better player this year than in his freshman campaign which is all the more impressive given that he had to recover from a torn ACL in the offseason. Williams’ opponents have jacked up 393 treys on the season already, third most in the NESCAC. If the shots are there for St. Amour, he’s going to take them. He’s been more effective getting to the lane so far this season (45.5 percent from the field) than shooting from deep (24.6 percent from 3PT), but this could be the game where he gets his long distance stroke going. As for the ankle, St. Amour isn’t showing any signs of it bothering him, but these things do linger so if he comes up gingerly at any point during the game, we’ll know why.
Game of the Night
Bowdoin (13-4, 4-1) at Trinity (14-5, 4-1)
John Swords ’15 was the only player for either side in double figures in last year’s game against Trinity. The big man had 11 points, six boards and four blocks in the Bowdoin win. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
If you like high-scoring basketball, I’d look elsewhere. Last year’s matchup ended 46-39 in favor of Bowdoin. Only one player ended up in double figures. Bowdoin’s 46 points were the lowest in a Polar Bear victory since 1949. However, if you’re a NESCAC fan (or player) this game holds a lot of meaning.
Who had this late January game pegged as a matchup of conference leaders? Not me, although I have said all year that Bowdoin would be in the running for a conference title (though with the losses of Neil Fuller ’17 and Keegan Pieri ’15 I’m a little less confident nowadays), but I never thought that Trinity would find the offense to win four of their first five conference games.
Well, turns out, they really haven’t, as they rank ninth in the league in points per conference game. But the defense has turned it up in big games, allowing three less points per conference game than overall. Maybe this is a result of Trinity taking air out of the ball, but the Bantams are going to have to score some points tonight against a Bowdoin team that seems to be getting hot offensively despite the injuries. Bryan Hurley ’15 and Lucas Hausman ’16 are one of the league’s best offensive backcourts and John Swords ’15 should be good for a few put-back buckets, though expect George Papadeas ’15 and Ed Ogundeko ’17, the NESCAC’s leading rebounder in conference games, to neutralize Swords offensively.
On the other end, Swords’ presence is the main reason why teams have shot 433 three pointers against Bowdoin this season, the most in the NESCAC. Wesleyan is next on that list. Cardinals’ opponents have shot 414 threes in one more game than Bowdoin has played. That means that the offensive pressure for Trinity lands mainly on the likes of Jaquann Starks ’16 (41.5 percent 3PT, 4.9 attempts per game), Chris Turnbull ’17 (35.9 percent 3PT, 2.6 attempts per game) and Andrew Hurd ’16 (31.2 percent 3PT, 2.5 attempts per game).
This is a difficult matchup for Trinity, and therefore I have to give the advantage to the Polar Bears. Prediction: Bowdoin by 10.
The NESCAC schedule means that this is the weekend when teams play their usual travel partner. Because they have played all the same teams in conference thus far, we should have a good idea on how each team matches up with their opponent.
A big theme of the weekend is road favorites trying to avoid losing to home teams. The combined conference records of home teams this weekend is 5-12 while away teams are a combined 13-6. And remember that those records come against the same teams. Colby is the only home team with a winning record at 3-1 and are also the only home team that can be considered a favorite going into tomorrow. Winning on the road is not easy, but most gyms in the NESCAC do not offer a significant advantage as overall teams are 9-11 on the road this season.
Three Players to Watch
1. Power Forward Rashid Epps ’16 (Wesleyan): A tough start for Wesleyan in conference is in part because of Epps not producing. The junior has seen his playing time squeezed somewhat and he even got dropped from the starting lineup against Middebury. Epps has never been the primary scorer for Wesleyan, but the emergence of Joseph Kuo ’17 has pushed him into the third or fourth role offensively. However, the Cardinals are not a particularly dynamic offensive team, and Epps is far and away their most efficient scorer. Some of that efficiency is because he scores a lot on second chance points, but even last year when he was more of a focal point on offense, he shot 55 percent from the field. He is shooting one less shot per game and has averaged only 5.0 shots per game over the past five games. Wesleyan cannot afford to lose at Conn College. Make no mistake, even though the Camels are 0-4 in conference, they are playing decently and will beat somebody soon. They need to avoid taking too many threes and get Epps involved early.
2. Point Guard Reid Berman ’17 (Amherst): Though Berman has still yet to start a game for the Jeffs, more often than not he, rather than Jayde Dawson ’18, ends up being on the court to finish games. Dawson continues to show flashes of excellence, but Coach Dave Hixon does not trust him as a point guard. After two early turnovers, Dawson went to the bench midway through the first half and never returned. Berman is pass-first almost to a fault, but he came up huge down the stretch for Amherst against Williams scoring seven points. I know seven points might not sound like much, but before Wednesday, Berman had scored eight points total since the Christmas break despite playing significant minutes in every game. Seven points is a major breakthrough for him. Berman is not going to shoot from the outside (one made three all season), but he showed he can get into the lane and be a threat to score. That is really all he needs to be since he has proven that he is an excellent passer. We don’t know whether Hixon will put Dawson back in the starting lineup or commit to Berman completely, but at this point it appears Berman is the primary point guard for Amherst.
3. Forward Dan Aronowitz ’17 (Williams): I got to watch Aronowitz in person last Friday when Williams visited Bowdoin, and he was the only reason the halftime score wasn’t 50-10 Bowdoin. And it wasn’t just his 13 points at half that stood out but the different ways he was able to affect the game on both ends. Even though webcasts around the NESCAC are now very good, it is hard to understand how a player really works unless you see them in person, especially if you are sitting courtside. The sophomore is undersized playing a lot of minutes at power forward, but he has held up on the defensive end. He is the second option right now on offense and is shooting 39.7 percent from three for the year. The injury to Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 could have CRUSHED Williams, but they are treading water right now without him. Because of improvements from Aronowitz and Ryan Kilcullen ’15 amongst others, Williams is becoming that team nobody wants to play.
A matchup of teams 3-1 in conference and the CBB rivalry makes this a wonderful undercard for the weekend. However, both teams’ conference records are inflated a bit by having already played Hamilton and Conn College, objectively the two worst teams in the NESCAC. Bowdoin’s win over Williams was a very good one, but since the Ephs were without Rooke-Ley, it still carries a little asterisk. The winner of this game will need only a couple more wins before they can think about a home NESCAC tournament game while the loser falls back to the pack with the toughest conference opponents still ahead of them.
John Swords ’15 and Chris Hudnut ’16 will clash once again this weekend. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
The tough news for Bowdoin is that Keegan Pieri ’15 suffered his second concussion of the season on Wednesday night and is out for the foreseeable future. Concussions are obviously not something to mess around with and we wish Keegan the best of luck dealing with them. On the court, he is a massive loss given he is the second leading scorer and rebounder on the Polar Bears. John Swords ’15 will need to step up and be an offensive threat in the middle, something that he has not been for long stretches this season. Coach Tim Gilbride could fill Pieri’s place in the starting lineup in a couple of different ways including going small with guard Jake Donnelly ’16. Liam Farley ’18 should see an uptick in minutes because of the injury as well.
In the first game between these two teams Colby outplayed Bowdoin in the second half and managed to run away with it at the end. Bowdoin was simply unable to buy a basket from the outside going 2-15 from three. Bryan Hurley ’15 scored only two points in the game, but he is looking much more comfortable of late and has made multiple three pointers in each of his past five games. Bowdoin will have to adjust quickly to playing without Pieri who was the most capable guy on the team at creating his own shot.
For Colby, they know Chris Hudnut ’16 and Luke Westman ’16 will produce so it comes down to their other guys. Ryan Jann ’16 is a smooth shooter who makes one shot a game that you have no idea how he did it. Sam Willson ’16 played one of his worst games of the season the first time around, but he has been fantastic in conference averaging 14.0 PPG. The Mules need to also play Bowdoin to a standstill on the boards in order to keep the Polar Bears from getting easy buckets. These are two teams very familiar with each other so expect a close game.
Disregard the fact that Trinity lost a mid-week game once again to an opponent they should have beat while Amherst pulled out a big win against Williams in overtime. This game is almost a tossup.
The talent on the Amherst roster is undeniable, but for the first time in a long time Dave Hixon is unsure on how all the pieces best fit together. Nine players are averaging more than 10 minutes for Amherst. The last time the roster was so unsettled was the 2009-2010 season when Amherst had 11 players average more than 10 minutes per game (injuries to key players help explain the high number) as the Jeffs struggled to a 14-11 record, including 3-6 in conference. Connor Green ’16 is getting close to putting his stamp on this team as a leader with a 30-point performance Wednesday. The Jeffs need him to become their go-to guy, someone they can rely on to get easy offense. If that happens all the talent behind him can fall into manageable roles: e.g. David George ’17 as shot-blocker and rebounder, Jeff Racy ’17 as sniper from three, and Johnny McCarthy ’18 as a Swiss Army knife.
At this point everyone knows that Trinity is extremely talented defensively and relatively inept offensively. They can thank their defense for their 3-1 start in the NESCAC. Trinity is yet to have a NESCAC opponent score more than 60 points against them in regulation. On the other end, the polite way of putting it is that the Bantams are balanced, but a more realistic outlook is that they simply lack players capable of creating and making their own shots beyond, occasionally, Jaquann Starks ’16. Guys like Alex Conaway ’15, Shay Ajayi ’16, and George Papadeas ’15 are all capable of having good games, but they just are not reliant enough. The Bantams will want to make this game ugly, and there is a good chance they will succeed in doing just that against an Amherst team that tends to play to its competition.
The road was not kind to Bates last weekend as they fell to Trinity and Amherst. Now they return to the comfy confines of Alumni Gym where five of their final seven conference games are at home. In fact, Bates’ only conference road games remaining are at Colby and Bowdoin so the Bobcats will not leave the state of Maine for the rest of the regular season.
Meanwhile Tufts continues to look better and better as we get further into conference play. Their win Thursday over UMass-Boston 80-67 saw them overcome 16 turnovers and four of their five starters scoring five points or less. Of course, it helps when your fifth starter, Hunter Sabety ’17 goes 9-9 shooting for 24 points. Even though Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18 have started recent games, Vincent Pace ’18 and Tarik Smith ’17 are the guys who do most of the backcourt scoring. The Jumbos are now above .500 for the first time all season. A win at Bates would cement their place at the top of the league with a good chance at going 7-0 before they play Williams in February.
Defensively Bates should match up well with Tufts because the Delpeche brothers can slow down Sabety and Tom Palleschi ’16. The Bobcats have to find a more consistent rhythm on offense, as they are averaging a NESCAC low 56.3 PPG in conference. Graham Safford ’15 has seen his scoring take a dive, and over on the D3Boards there are unsubstantiated rumors that he is playing injured. Safford is still playing heavy minutes and his backups, Jerome Darling ’17 and Justin Zukowski ’18, have played very sparingly. Safford has to be at or near his best for Bates who should be playing in front of a large home crowd tomorrow.
What a weekend in the NESCAC. Could you have asked for a better first night of contests? Of the five games played on Friday night, four were decided by six points or less. Williams-Trinity went into double OT. A missed call by refs in Lewiston helped Bates to the win over Middlebury. Wesleyan had three shots from deep in the final seconds to tie the game against Colby but missed all of its attempts. And Connor Green ’16 came out of hibernation to lead Amherst to a victory over Hamilton, aided by the best offensive night of David George’s ’17 young career. The second round of conference games was only slightly less exhilarating, as Williams and Amherst played yet another classic and Tufts pulled a major upset over the suddenly suspect Middlebury Panthers. Suffice to say, Week 1 of the NESCAC season did not disappoint.
Stock Up
1. David George ’17
The Amherst big man is respected around the league for his defense, but he turned up his offensive game this weekend, scoring 29 points against Hamilton and 18 against Amherst, his highest totals of the season (the latter matching an 18-point performance in late December). George was 16-20 (80 percent) from the field and 15-19 (78.9 percent) from the stripe. Amherst is already one of the highest-scoring teams in the NESCAC. If George can be a consistent weapon on the offensive end while still maintaining his level of play on defense, Amherst will be dangerous and we could be witnessing the maturation of a future NESCAC POY candidate.
2. Colby Mules
Sure, they only beat the Wesleyan Cardinals by two and their nine-point win over the 7-6 Conn College Camels isn’t all that impressive, but for a team that came into the weekend barely over .500 getting to Monday with a 2-0 conference record is all one could ask for. This is a team with a lot of potential, which we’ve talked about before. For the second year in a row Coach Damien Strahorn is leaning heavily on his 2016 class, and they all played great this weekend. Last year the Mules could make the excuse that they were still young, but now that the core of this team is in its third year, they need to start getting the results. Maybe this was the first step towards accomplishing that.
3. Tufts’ Guard Play
We raved about the Tufts’ front court before the season started, but with Hunter Sabety ’16 out yesterday the Jumbos dominated Middlebury. Coach Bob Sheldon shook up the starting lineup, inserting Drew Madsen ’16, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18, and no one responded better than the usual starting point guard, Tarik Smith ’17. Smith went 5-7 from the field, 2-2 from deep and 8-8 from the line for 20 points, netted two steals and only turned the ball over twice in 28 minutes. Against one of the NESCAC’s best one-on-one defensive guards in Jake Brown ’17, Smith was able to penetrate and cause havoc. Ben Ferris ’15, who just hasn’t been his old self on offense this year, had eight points, but they all seemed to come at big moments. Newcomer Vinny Pace ’18 showed some impressive touch inside and creative moves as he added eight points, and Stephen Haladyna ’16, another usual starter relegated to the bench, chipped in 11 points in his second-best shooting night of the year, percentage-wise. Tufts is still 5-7 overall, but 1-0 in the games that count the most.
Stock Down
1. Middlebury Panthers
You had to see this one coming. A few days after we gave them the top spot in our composite power rankings, they go and do something like this, losing a tight game to Bates and them getting blown out on Sunday against Tufts. As was noted on Twitter, basically the entire Middlebury roster was fairly ill on Friday night, so much so that there were rumors (the accuracy of which we will never know) that the game might be moved to another date, so props to them for gutting it out and making it a close game, but I don’t think we can say that, two days later, sickness was the reason that the Jumbos stomped them by 17 points. I don’t see this weekend as being indicative of a problem in the future, and I still think Middlebury can and will compete for a NESCAC title. But, I would be concerned that some of the negative attitude that seemed to creep up on the Panthers last season could resurface. I hope I’m wrong.
2. John Swords ’15
Maybe a bit of a surprising pick, because Swords certainly didn’t play badly this weekend, but as I noted in the power ranks last week, Bowdoin needs Swords to be a force if they are going to make it back to the NCAA tournament, and 17 points in 60 minutes of play isn’t going to cut it. Swords was pretty much his typical self in the rebounding and blocks categories, and still discourages anyone from setting foot in the paint with the ball, but I was banking on Swords elevating his game for the NESCAC season. Consider this a challenge, Mr. Swords.
3. Jayde Dawson ’18
The Fairleigh-Dickinson transfer came to Amherst with big expectations at the beginning of the season, and at this point we can probably assume that those expectations were a little bit too much to put on Dawson right away. After a couple nice games in a row, Dawson got one point, two rebound and zero assists in just 16 minutes in the Lord Jeffs’ biggest game of the season against rival Williams. Much like Michigan-Ohio State, in order to be one of the greats at Amherst, you have to beat Williams, and it seems like Dawson wilted under the bright lights. But, if last year was any indication, there’s a good chance that these teams meet again before the season is over, so Dawson should get a shot at redemption.
Dan Wohl ’15 has emerged as a star as Williams tries to keep the standard represented by the banners behind him. (Courtesy of WritingScots.Wordpress.Com)
Editors Note: Adam Lamont contributed to the Williams-Amherst preview
After starting the year with back-to-back losses in the first year of the Kevin App regime, the Ephs have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games. That one loss was to #7 WPI by only two points. Now that it has come time for conference play to begin we wanted to highlight what has gone well and what has not so far for Williams.
Successes
1. The senior leadership of Dan Wohl ’15, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15, and Ryan Kilcullen ’15: All three players have been averaging double digits which is huge for what is a very young team that got hit hard from graduation losses and Duncan Robinson transferring to Michigan. Wohl has increased his points per game by about seven and his rebounds per game by two. He has been the go to guy all year for the Ephs. Rooke-Ley’s success at getting to the charity stripe and converting there has been well documented all season as he is shooting a remarkable 94.2 percent there on 81-86 attempts. Kilcullen has seen dramatic increases in all of his stats due to increased floor time by increasing his points per game and rebounds per game by five.
2. Defense: Despite losing a lot of big defenders, the Ephs have managed to keep their points per game allowed at basically the same level as last season. Yes, they are allowing 72.0 PPG, the highest mark in the NESCAC, and at a nearly 42 percent clip, but that is actually lower than last year when the Ephs allowed 72.8 PPG and still made the National Championship. Because of their personnel Williams is at a disadvantage rebounding the ball, but their defense has been good enough for them to win. If they can maintain this level, they should be fine because the offense is so good.
Failures
1. Depth: Coach App has heavily relied on six players to eat up most of the minutes and sparingly used his bench in non-conference play to date except to give guys very brief rests. Williams under Coach Maker last year had a similar rotation set up and it worked. It will be interesting to see how Coach App decides to go forward with his use of players in conference play.
2. Turnovers: The Ephs as a team are averaging about three more turnovers per game than last year. In their three losses this year, they are averaging close to 17 turnovers per game compared to around 12 in their victories. Even though most of the rotation handles the ball well, the Ephs can force the issue too much at times.
3. Field Goal Percentage: While the three point shooting percentage has increased this year, overall the field goal percentage is about six points lower than last year. The loss of Michael Mayer ’14 in the post has robbed Williams of high percentage shots inside. If the Ephs are going to be as successful as last year, they need to manufacture a way to get higher percentage shots in NESCAC play.
Weekend Outlook
The Ephs did not get any favors in the opening weekend of NESCAC play drawing the Trinity Bantams at home on Friday and the 18th-ranked Amherst Lord Jeffs at home on Saturday. Both teams should be competing for home games in the NESCAC playoffs.
Trinity presents an interesting challenge for the Ephs as they have a very tight defense that packs the paint and also forces a lot of steals. Williams has been turning the ball over heavily in their losses and if Trinity’s defense can knock it away from the Ephs, I think the Ephs need to watch out. This game is a battle of styles as Trinity wants to slow the game and make it a grind while Williams prefers a more wide open flowing game. Interesting to see if the Ephs are caught looking ahead to the marquee matchup vs. Amherst and possibly have a slip up against Trinity.
Now to the game the whole league is looking at, Amherst vs. Williams. These two teams had great battles last year both in the NESCAC and NCAA tournament and all NESCAC fans are lucky that we get to see these two heavyweights go at it in the first conference weekend. Both teams came into the year with lofty expectations (perhaps too lofty) after making it to the Final Four but have underperformed relative to them. The massive losses of talent on both teams has hit them hard.
For the Ephs it starts with the captain Wohl. He is the go to guy for them and he’s still improving. He has scored more than 20 points in each of the last four games. If the Ephs are going to win, it rests on his shoulders along with fellow sharpshooter Rooke-Ley. They have relied on both these guys all season so expect the same to happen against Amherst. Although the Ephs defense has been performing at the same level as last year, it’s still currently the worst ranked defense by points per game. Their defense could be a huge issue as Amherst has numerous threats on the court led by stud newcomer Johnny McCarthy ’15.
Williams will be playing with a huge disadvantage in size against Amherst. The Lord Jeffs have so many talented big men like 6’8″ David George ’17 and 6’8″ Jacob Nabatoff ’17 that Coach Dave Hixon has changed his rotation and kept two big men on the court at most times. The Ephs already struggle on the boards, and the Jeffs are formidable all across their lineup in terms of height. Kilcullen needs to be able to at least slow down Amherst in the paint. App might have to resort to a zone in order to alleviate the height difference and force the Amherst guards to make shots from the outside.
Dan Aronowitz ’17 is the other crucial piece for Williams inside. He is an undersized power forward, yet he could present a major matchup problem for Amherst because of his ability to shoot from the outside and slash to the basket.
On the Amherst side, life after Aaron Toomey ’14 has not been completely smooth. The Jeffs have had to pull out a lot of close games in order to get to 8-2, but their win on Tuesday at #21 Eastern Connecticut gives the team a lot of confidence coming into the weekend. The point guard position is unsettled as neither transfer Jayde Dawson ’18 nor Reid Berman ’17 have really claimed the position. Though Dawson has started every game, he does not look comfortable running the offense and does not do a great job of getting others involved with only 2.4 assists per game. Berman is more reliable but defenses know he does not like to shoot and lay off of him. Toomey is back with the team as an assistant coach starting this weekend after an injury ended his season in Spain. Maybe his presence will help the point guard play.
The one upperclassman on Amherst, Connor Green ’16, has been a major disappointment to many. After he averaged 17.9 points in 2013-2014, we expected him to take another step and compete for the league lead in scoring. Instead, he has dropped down to 13.2 PPG and seen his shooting percentages take a dive. Green is taking harder shots and is only making 29.3 percent of his threes. Those feeling better about Williams than Amherst can point to the divergence in play between Green and Wohl as a major reason. The freshman McCarthy and Jeff Racy ’17 supply most of the outside shooting.
Though Hixon has started the same starting five every game, the Jeffs do not seem like a finished product. They certainly look physically like the best team in the NESCAC, but there has yet to be a game where they play like they are capable of. This Williams-Amherst game does not have the stars of last season, but the talent level on both rosters is still very high. It is still too early to know whether this is a crucial conference clash or merely one of the many steps in shuffling out the conference hierarchy. What we can be sure of is that as always, the two teams will bring us plenty of fun.
We wanted to wait until every team had played a game before giving our initial impressions on the first looks that we got of NESCAC teams. It was a whirlwind of a first round of games that played out in the only way we thought it could: unpredictably.
1. Long way to March: One of the things that we harped on consistently during football was how quickly the season goes. Every football game has enormous ramifications. Obviously the same is not true for basketball as teams have months to come together as a team and gel before the NESCAC season begins. Teams as we see them now are going to look very different in a couple of months. Freshmen who barely got off the bench so far will end up influencing the conference race down the stretch while upperclassmen just getting comfortable in their roles will blossom. Do not overreact to a small sample size. Of course, that does not mean there is nothing to takeaway from these games either.
2. Injuries matter…to a point: A major takeaway was that a host of players did not suit up. Hunter Sabety ’17 missed Tufts’ first game but returned last night. Patrick Stewart ’16 will miss significant amounts of time because of a back injury, and Ajani Santos ’16 is out for an undisclosed time with an injury. Those losses all showed in their teams performance somewhat. Yet Keegan Pieri ’15 did not play for Bowdoin last weekend and the Polar Bears barely missed a beat. Pieri will be back this weekend making Bowdoin that much more dangerous, but the lesson is that teams are constructed in different ways. While Bowdoin had the personnel to survive without one of their two returning starters, other teams felt the crunch.
3. Trinity is a big fat question mark: It was surprising to see Trinity give up 83 points in their first game, but anytime your opponent goes 13-27 from three you are going to give up a lot of points. The good news was Trinity still won the game and doubled up UMass Dartmouth on the boards. When Salem State put up 102 on Trinity on Sunday then eyebrows across the league were raised. Known for their suffocating defense, the Bantams allowed Salem State to shoot 56.9 percent from the field and got out-rebounded. Trinity allowed only 61.4 points per game last year, and with everyone back their defense was supposed to be even better. They should be able to turn things around on that end, but they are not a team built to score 80 points a game so they need to improve sooner rather than later.
4. Losses hurt NCAA chances: On an individual level for each team these losses are not devastating if the teams can turn it around, but the NESCAC’s general struggles could hurt the league when the selection committee meets for the NCAA tournament. The NESCAC is generally a three bid league though it often only gets two teams into the tournament. Everyone knows how much talent left from the NESCAC so there is reason to believe that the league could be down this year. The NESCAC tournament champion gets an automatic bid. If the NESCAC continues to rack up out of conference losses that will make a NESCAC team more likely to be overlooked for an at-large bid.
5. Tufts is an enigma: For those who follow college football, the term Clemsoning is familiar. Clemson always seems to lose one game every season where they far outmatch their opponent in talent level but makes a host of mistakes to get upset. Over on the D3Boards, user lefrakenstein used the term “Tuftsing” to describe how it is almost predictable that the Jumbos are struggling out of the gate despite all of the talent on their roster. Now that they are 0-2, Tufts has to figure out how to put together all of their talent quicker than other teams. They begin conference play against Middlebury and Amherst and cannot afford to lose both of those games.
6. Williams lacks depth: The Ephs have been deeply reliant on their starting five to provide pretty much everything for them so far. Coach Kevin App did a better job last night of managing his players’ minutes, but that was not enough to stop SUNY Oneonta from mounting a large second half comeback that pushes Williams to 0-2. Ryan Kilcullen ’15 has averaged 35 minutes per game after being a secondary role player last year. The freshmen should develop and be able to give the perimeter players time to rest, but Kilcullen will need to play more than 30 minutes a game all season unless Edward Flynn ’16 can deliver on the promise he has shown. Depth is not everything (Amherst basically only played their starters down the stretch last year), but it sure helps.
7. Aaron Toomey’s absence looms large: Of course there was no question that Amherst was going to miss Toomey, one of the most decorated players in NESCAC history, but with Jayde Dawson ’17 transferring in from Division-I, the hope was that the team would adjust its style of play. Dawson struggled mightily in his first game and was benched down the stretch last night, but he should turn things around. Even then he is not the same type of player as Toomey. I did not realize it until I watched Toomey live, but he had this unbelievable skill of being in complete control of the game no matter the circumstances. Reid Berman ’17 looked much more confident than he did last year and was a major reason Amherst came back, but he still had three turnovers including one where the defender simply picked his pocket and scored a layup the other way.
8. Shooting is at a premium right now: One of the reasons for teams struggling to score is futility from the outside. More than half of NESCAC teams are making less than 30 percent of their threes. A lot of that is because the premier shooters in the NESCAC graduated. The top five players from last year in terms of three pointers made all departed from the NESCAC so don’t be shocked if long range shooting is down throughout the year. Percentages should tick up somewhat as players get more comfortable shooting in game conditions.
9. John Swords ’15 is amazing: The seven foot center went out and played what is at this point typical John Swords basketball, averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds on the weekend. Let us clarify that the concerns about his health were very real. Yet that did not affect him this weekend for a very simple reason. Swords got new shoes that he started using this weekend that made the pain in his legs go away. Mind you that these are not special shoes made to alleviate pain or something like that. They are simply new shoes. Swords felt completely confident in his ability to do whatever he normally does on a basketball court this weekend. That is great news for Bowdoin and terrible news for everybody else in the NESCAC.
10. A juggernaut could lurk: My bold prediction during the preseason was that every single team would lose two games in the NESCAC regular season. No regular season conference champion has had two losses since the crazy 2000-2001 season when five teams finished at 6-3 (Hamilton was not in the NESCAC yet). After seeing every team play I stand by that prediction for now. However, given how many injuries Middlebury had this weekend, the fact they still went 2-0 means they had the most impressive weekend of anyone. The Panthers played without Matt Daley ’16, a player many think could be All-NESCAC if he stays healthy. Jack Daly ’18 looks like an instant impact player who gives Middlebury plenty of depth in the backcourt. The Panthers lost a lot of talent, but the assortment of pieces in Vermont could gel together quite nicely.
