The Replacements (But Talented): Wesleyan Season Preview

Having Ike Fuchs back in the kicking game is one of the few constants for Wesleyan. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Having Ike Fuchs ’17 back in the kicking game is one of the few constants for Wesleyan. (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Projected Record: 5-3

Projected Offensive Starters (*Two Returning)

QB: Gernald Hawkins ’18
RB: LaDarius Drew ’15
WR: Neil O’Connor ’17
WR: Mike Breuler ’18
TE: Ben Kurtz ’17*
TE: Dan Laorenza ’16
LT: Blake Cunningham ’16*
LG: Matt Polacek ’16
C: Matt Kuhn ’17
RG: Beau Butler ’18
RT: Shane Jenkins ’17

Projected Defensive Starters (*Two Returning)

DE: Jordan Stone ’17
DT: Shane Donovan ’16
DT: Jason Yu ’18
DE: Greg Blaize ’16
LB: Alex Daversa-Russo ’16*
LB: Shayne Kaminski ’17
LB: Jon Spivey ’16
DB: Justin Sanchez ’17*
DB: Elias Camacho ’18
DB: Zac Cuzner ’17
DB: Rob Manning ’16

Projected Specialists (*Returning)

K/P: Ike Fuchs ’17*

Offensive MVP: RB LaDarius Drew ’15

Drew is an elite talent in the NESCAC, and his return to the lineup after missing 2o14 with a foot injury might just be a Godsend. Running back is actually the Cardinals’ deepest position, with All-NESCAC First Teamer Lou Stevens ’17 and Jaylen Berry ’18 (5.6 YPC) backing up Drew – which means that this three-headed monster will be expected to carry a heavy load. A lot of responsibility will lie on the shoulders of captain and left tackle Blake Cunningham ’16 and his unit to create some holes for Drew and Co.

Defensive MVP: DB Justin Sanchez ’17

Sanchez and LB Alex Daversa-Russo ’16 were both Second-Team All-NESCAC last season and are the undisputed leaders of this defensive unit. Sanchez was the team’s leading tackler a year ago and picked off one pass. There is a bit more experience in Wesleyan’s defensive front than in the secondary, which might mean more chances for Sanchez to make plays and rack up big tackle numbers. Therefore I think he edges out Daversa-Russo as the team’s defensive MVP.

Biggest Game: September 26 vs. Middlebury

There are so many unknowns with this year’s team given the mass exodus (AKA graduation) from last year’s squad. For that reason, Week 1 will be a huge benchmark game for the Cards and first-year head coach Dan DiCenzo. Wesleyan will need to grind it out and shorten the game, not allowing the Panthers offense to get the ball too often. Look for Wesleyan to go right at the Middlebury front seven and try to overpower the Panthers while rotating all three of their running backs into the game. Sanchez and the rest of the inexperienced secondary might have difficulty slowing down the Middlebury passing attack, but they could force some errors and create turnovers for Wesleyan.

Best Tweet of the Offseason:

Are you kidding me, Justin Sanchez?

Summary:

There’s not much that’s known about the 2015 Wesleyan Cardinals. The returning starters are beasts, we know that. Drew, Stevens, Cunningham, Daversa-Russo and Sanchez will be counted on to produce big seasons this year. Matt Polacek ’16 and Shane Jenkins ’17 have experience on the O-line, so that unit shouldn’t miss too much of a beat and the running game will remain strong. Replacing Jesse Warren’s ’15 unparalleled efficiency at QB will be very difficult for the green Gernald Hawkins ’18, but he beat out three other talented players to win the job so clearly he’s shown that he can compete at this level. Hawkins went to Miramar High School in Florida, a big time program that won a state title in 2009. That was also the year AFTER  Jets quarterback Geno Smith graduated from Miramar High. Anyway, Hawkins is a threat both running and passing the ball, and his highlight tape shows him making really smart decisions against high level talent in Florida.

Among the newly-minted starters on the defensive side, DE Jordan Stone ’17 saw the most snaps in 2014. If this unit learned anything from the dominant 2015 class, which produced the very best YPG against average in all of D-III last season, they should still be an above average defense. The team’s overall MVP, however, might be K/P Ike Fuchs ’17, probably the league’s best kicker. Fuchs led all NESCAC kickers with 54 points last year. He hit 10 out of 13 of his field goals, and his misses came from 33, 34 and 43 – no gimmes at this level. He will take over the punting duties this year, as well, which were formerly handled by Warren.

Former Head Coach Mike Whalen, now the Wesleyan Athletic Director, has an amazing resume when it comes to building football programs in the NESCAC – first at Williams and now at Wesleyan. Now he hands over the reins to his former assistant DiCenzo, but only time will tell how this group will compare to the decorated 2015 class. Week 1 will – hopefully – answer a lot of our questions about the new wave of Cardinals.

Previewing the Player of the Year Races

If you have a better picture from the paper, by all means use that Joe
Matt Milano ’16 looks to defend his POY title (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Yesterday we tackled all the players who have a chance to rise from relative obscurity into stardom. Now it’s time to talk about the ones who already are big names and might take home the shiniest hardward at the end of the season.

Offensive Player of the Year Race

The question is whether a non-QB will be able to win this award. Eight of the last nine Offensive Player of the Year Awards have gone to a QB with Amherst’s Evan Bunker the only running back to win in 2011. In the six years from 2000-2005, non-QBs won the award in four of the six years.  As you will see below, among our five favorites, only one is a QB, Matt Milano ’16. Of course, Milano is the odds-on favorite to win the award provided he stays healthy, but if for some unforeseen reason he does not put up amazing statistics, there does not appear to be another QB ready to win the award. While it is possible someone like Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams) makes a big jump, it is probably Milano or bust in terms of QBs, so that is something to keep in mind.

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Running Backs LaDarius Drew ’15/Lou Stevens ’17 (Wesleyan): Stevens enjoyed a strong end to the 2014 season to earn First Team All-NESCAC honors in 2014, and Drew was First Team All-NESCAC in 2013 before missing all of last year because of a foot injury so both of these guys are very talented. In the end, these two might be each other’s worst enemies. There are only so many carries to go around. However, in 2013 with Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 splitting carries, Drew still finished second in the NESCAC in YPG. If these two were one player, LouDarius Drevens would be the favorite to win the award.

Tyler Grant '17 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Running Back Tyler Grant ’17 (Bowdoin): The league’s leading rusher from 2014, and the only player who averaged more than 100 YPG, Grant racked up an incredible amount of carries over eight games. He finished the year with 226 rushing attempts, 76 more than the next highest total by Trinity’s Chudi Iregbulem ’15! Grant surely will not run that much this year, but he could benefit from a more open scheme that will put him in space more often where he is best. Health is a definite concern after all of the carries a year ago. He was banged up for much of the offseason and is out of practice now, though he is expected to be fully healthy by the time Week 1 rolls around.

Matt Milano '16 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Quarterback Matt Milano ’16 (Middlebury): Milano is the reigning co-Offensive Player of the Year (he split the award with Wesleyan QB Jesse Warren ’15 a year ago) so he is an obvious choice for this list. We are pretty sure that he will be starting Week 1 over transfer Jared Lebowitz ’17 because Milano has more experience with the offense. Make no mistake, Milano was amazing last year. After an uneven first start against Wesleyan, he threw 22 TDs against one INT over the final seven games of the season. He does have to play more consistently against the top defenses in the league, as he had average or subpar games against Wesleyan, Amherst and Williams. Middlebury will rely on him even more than they did last year with the team’s leading rusher from a year ago, Drew Jacobs ’18, out with a Lisfranc fracture.

Nick Kelly '17 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Running Back Nick Kelly ’17 (Amherst): Kelly entered 2014 splitting carries with Kenny Adinkra ’16, but with Adinkra injured for the final five games of the season, Kelly became the feature back. A tall back, Kelly is somewhat in the mold of a Derrick Henry from Alabama who possesses breakaway speed once he gets moving downhill. His 59-yard touchdown against Middlebury last year was the difference in that game, and he had a run of at least 20 yards in each of the first five games of the season. Kelly did struggle mightily down the stretch averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry in his final three games. He will also have to fight off a lot of talented backups including a healthy Adinkra.

Mark Riley '16 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Wide Receiver Mark Riley ’16 (Bates): Having a wide receiver from Bates, a school known for their triple option running attack on offense, as a preseason favorite for this award is unusual. Then you have to realize that Riley has the statistics to more than back up his inclusion. He led the league in receiving YPG and was second in catches. He has the speed to run past defenders and also runs good routes underneath. With no other clear passing option, he will have to overcome a lot of double teams. New QB Patrick Dugan ’16 is known as a good passer so I’m not worried about a big drop in targets for Riley. Winning this award as a wide receiver is hard, but Riley has a lot of the ingredients to make it happen.

Others to Watch: Wide Receiver Matt Minno ’16 (Middlebury), Quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams), Quarterback Sonny Puzzo ’17 (Trinity), Running Back Jabari Hurdle-Price ’17 (Colby)

Defensive Player of the Year

The past winners of this award exhibit a lot more variety than the QB-heavy Offensive award, but the most common position to win it is linebacker because of the big tackle totals. This season there are more than a fair share of worthy competitors for DPOY, and we left off a lot of players who will make a run at it.

Jaymie Spears '16 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Cornerback Jaymie Spears ’16 (Amherst): The best corner in the NESCAC, no questions asked. A year ago Spears was second in the league with six interceptions, tied for first with eight pass breakups, and blocked two kicks, just because he can. One worry for Spears’ candidacy? That teams simply ignore his side of the field and target other receivers. You see that in the NFL for corners like Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis. NESCAC teams haven’t done that yet, but if Spears’ numbers drop precipitously it might be because he simply isn’t getting opportunities.

Mark Upton '17 (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Linebacker Mark Upton ’17 Bates): The presence of multiple senior linebackers on Bates couldn’t keep Upton from racking up 84 tackles a year ago. Now, as the centerpiece of the Bates defense, he could have eye-popping numbers from the middle linebacker spot. He is more than just a steady player in the middle too. He led the league with four forced fumbles and had the most sacks on Bates with 3.5. A severe drop in the overall talent of the Bates defense could spell trouble for Upton, but he has a very good shot if he plays at a similar level to what he did last season.

Tim Patricia '16 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury). Patricia is just one of several Middlebury defenders who could make a run at this award. He gets the nod because of his job as the middle linebacker. He is nothing if not consistent with three NESCAC Second Team honors back-to-back-to-back years. Some might worry that Patricia has hit his ceiling as a player already, but he improved his play-making ability by doubling his TFL total from 2013 to 2014. Patricia’s greatest skill is a nose for the ball. He just knows how to make tackles. And even if he doesn’t win the award, one of his teammates, the Pierce bros (they’re not actually brothers), S Dan and LB Addison, just might.

Mike Stearns '17 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Safety Mike Stearns ’17 (Tufts): Nobody had more solo tackles than Stearns’ 60 in 2014, and the fact that they came from the corner position makes it all the more impressive. Now at safety Stearns should have even more opportunities to make tackles. A great instinctive player, Stearns will be all over the field as a safety. Of worry is a significant tapering off of production as the year went along. He had only 18 tackles in his last four games. At safety, Stearns will have to show that he can make plays in the air and not just on the ground.

James Howe '16 (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams): Joe and I talked about this in our video on Monday (Williams part begins at 3:40), but there is no bigger enigma than Howe entering this season. After totaling 10 sacks as a sophomore, he had zero all of 2014. He still had 38 tackles, a good amount for a defensive end, but a year ago I was ready to call Howe the JJ Watt of the NESCAC. I put him on this list because he obviously has the talent to make a ton of plays. He might not be quite as much of a focus for opposing offenses this season, which could give him more opportunities to get into the backfield.

Others to Watch: Linebacker Alex Daversa-Russo ’16 (Wesleyan), Safety Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury), Linebacker Addison Pierce ’17 (Middlebury), Linebacker Frank Leyva ’16 (Trinity), Linebacker Thomas Kleyn ’16 (Amherst)

Five Observations from Our All-NESCAC Team

1.  We were a little conservative

Consider this: for our first team offense, every single player is a senior. Only three juniors make the first team defense. That doesn’t mean there are not a lot of talented underclassmen in the NESCAC, but talent takes a little longer to reveal itself than in other leagues in large part because of the decreased practice time. Because of the limits on practice time, especially in the spring, where there is none, players take a little bit longer to develop. What that means is that a lot of talented juniors who did pretty well as sophomores, but not enough to jump off the page, could end up on the team by season’s end.

2. Expect scoring to be down

Based on the All-NESCAC teams from 2013, more than half the first team defense and all but two players from the second team defense return. This is especially true on the defensive line where all eight honorees are back. When making up this team we even pushed guys who made first team last season down to the second team. When we talked to coaches so many of them stressed that they felt the strength of their team was in their front seven on defense. With the exception of Wesleyan, every offense has big questions about how it will be able to score consistently.

3.  Breakdown by School

Amherst Bates Bowdoin Colby Hamilton
8 6 6 6 1
Middlebury Trinity Tufts Wesleyan Williams
4 10 3 10 4

Couple of things to point out here. Of Wesleyan’s ten players, eight of them have made All-NESCAC before with Alex Daversa-Russo ’16 and Josh Hurwitz ’15 the two newcomers. Also related to Wesleyan, seven of them are first team including FIVE on the offensive side of the ball. Williams only having four might seem question given that we have suggested on this blog that they are primed for a rebound year, though we did not include safety Tom Caberle ’15, despite him making the second team last season. Though some could draw issue with that, competition in the secondary was fierce. Final thought here – isn’t it nice how the Maine schools have the same number of honorees? The 6-6-6 message there is an unfortunate coincidence as well.

4. Wanted: star offensive skill players

The first team offense has plenty of known talent on it, but the second team is more of a question mark. Guys like Matt Cannone ’16 and Tyler Grant ’17 have shown they have the talent to be All-NESCAC players, but have not gotten the opportunities yet to prove they will be. Many of the players on that second team in skill positions are who we think is going to take a big step up in production. The exception to the rule is Matt Minno ’16 who falls from the first to second team in large part because of the uncertainty at QB for Middlebury.

5. Wesleyan and Trinity have the most talent

We already knew this, but it bears repeating. The NESCAC championship will be decided by the Connecticut teams this season. Wesleyan has more returning starters, but Trinity has a case for having more sheer talent overall. If the two teams played tomorrow, the edge goes to Wesleyan because of their experience, but come the end of the season it should be a different story.

Wesleyan Team Preview – Same Team, Greater Expectations

2013 Record: 7-1

Returning Starters: 19 (eight offense, 10 defense, one specialist)

Offensive Overview:

You won’t find a more complete team on either side of the ball in the NESCAC. Eight All-NESCAC honorees return to the Cardinal lineup, four on offense. The Cardinals will lean heavily on the run, as they rushed 353 times last year compared to just 174 pass attempts. LaDarius Drew ’15 ran for 94.5 yards per game last year, and his “back-up,” if it’s fair to call it that, Kyle Gibson ’15 earned Second Team honors by rushing for 73.4 yards per game. If miraculously either of those two workhorses stumble, Lou Stevens ’17 averaged 5.9 yards per carry over his 40 touches. Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 wasn’t an All-NESCAC recipient, but he had the highest completion percentage and yards per attempt in the league and was second to Mac Foote in TD passes. His only three interceptions came in the season finale at Trinity. Josh Hurwitz ’15 and Jay Fabien ’15 are both in their fourth years as starting receivers. Tight end Jonathan Day ’15 is another All-NESCAC honoree. He serves primarily as a run blocker but was fourth on the squad in receptions last year. The offensive line is stacked as well. Pat DiMase ’15 (Second Team) and Blake Cunningham ’16 line up at tackle, while there is some competition for starting time on the interior, although Taylor Bishop ’15, Shane Scannell ’15 and Austin Frank ’15 are the frontrunners and each has game experience.

Defensive Overview:

The returning depth on the defensive side might even be more impressive than that of the offense. Linebacker Myers Beaird graduated, but starters are back everywhere else. Furthermore, the Cardinals like to rotate players on defense and keep legs fresh, so players up and down the roster have in-game experience. Nik Powers ’15 and grad student Jordan Otis line up at defensive end. Ibraheem Khadar ’15 and Mitch Godfrey ’15 will be on the interior. A host of others will rotate through the defensive line, including Alex Sakhno ’15, Greg Blaize ’16 and Jordan Stone ’17. The linebacking corps is a strength, with leading tackler Alex Daversa-Russo ’16 and Gregg Kelley ’15 back. The third spot will be filled by Jake Siciliano ’15, who opened 2013 as the starter but it was then discovered that he had a stomach tumor. Siciliano’s injury made room for Daversa-Russo in the line up, and having both on the field in 2014 will make the Wesleyan defense that much scarier. In the defensive backfield, grad student Jake Bussani will make a run for his fourth straight All-NESCAC First Team award. Vincent Davis ’15 will be the opposite corner. At safety, two-sport stud Donnie Cimino ’15 returns and is joined by Justin Sanchez ’17 who started in 2013. Lastly, Devon Carrillo ’17 will be on the field as a safety-linebacker hybrid. Carrillo was the team’s second-leading tackler, and was awarded All-NESCAC honors as a return man for his 25.7 yard average on kickoffs. In reality, the defense has more than 10 starters returning. Add Siciliano and Carrillo to the tally, and there are 12 players back who could be considered starters.

Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics
Clockwise from top left: Donnie Cimino; Jonathan Day; Jay Fabien; Jake Bussani – Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics

Three Big Questions

1. Can Wesleyan Win the Big One?

After rolling through the first half of the season, outscoring its opponents 163-22, Wesleyan saw some stiffer competition in the final four weeks, and squeaked out victories over its Little Three rivals by a total of eight points. Then disaster struck, Warren failed to take care of the ball as he had all season, the defense imploded, and Trinity closed out its season with a 40-10 beat down of the would-be outright champs. The Cardinals are out to prove that they have become the preeminent program in the NESCAC, and that they can beat big brother down the road in Hartford.

2. Will the Little Three Crown Stay in Middletown?

After a 43-year drought, Wesleyan finally defeated Amherst and Williams in the same season, earning the Little Three championship. Though as mentioned above, the victories were slim. Amherst essentially threw away that matchup with three interceptions and a fumble lost, allowing the Cardinals to get out of Amherst with a 20-14 win, while a late field goal was the difference in Wesleyan’s 16-14 defeat of Williams. Wesleyan will be the favorite in both games but victories will not come easily.

3. Who Steps in for Departed Placekicker Sebastian Aguirre?

Aguirre was arguably the best placekicker in the NESCAC last year, and indeed made the All-NESCAC Second Team for his efforts, and as noted above he kicked the game winner that sealed the Little Three title for the Cardinals. Options to replace Aguirre include backup QB Ike Fuchs ’16, who came into camp atop the depth chart, Corey Phillips ’17 and newcomer John Henry-Carey ’18.

Team MVP: LaDarius Drew. You know that the Cardinals are going to pound opponents with the run game, and Drew will be the team’s workhorse. Expect both him and Gibson to be at the top of the leaderboards in every rushing category. Oh by the way, if healthy Drew will easily become the school’s all-time leader in rushes, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.

Biggest Game of the Year: Nov. 8 against Trinity

Is there any doubt? These are probably the two best teams in the conference, they are a 25-minute drive up 91 apart from one another, and Wesleyan still has a sour taste in its mouth from last year when the Bantams took the Cardinals’ NESCAC title and divided it into three parts. It’s not impossible that both teams could be undefeated heading into this game.

Best Tweet of the Offseason: The Wesleyan Football Twitter account (@Wes_Football) kept its followers up to date on what a lot of the Cardinals were doing this summer. Kyle Gibson interned at JPMorgan and was offered a full-time job upon graduation, Josh Hurwitz worked with the Celtics organization and Mitch Godfrey was with the Chatham Anglers of the Cape Cod League. But our favorite has to be this series of tweets about how LaDarius Drew spent his summer.

The Cardinals are locked and loaded. Anything short of a NESCAC title will be a disappointment for Wesleyan.