Dan Smith – Nothing But NESCAC

The Great Thaw: Power Rankings 4/8

We held off on doing a Power Rankings last week because so few games had been played since the last one. Also, we had to re-watch Game of Thrones before the season premiere. Pretty standard stuff really. Before a big weekend of games, getting a Power Rankings out there is necessary.

1. Wesleyan (12-4, 3-0). Last Ranking: 1

The Cardinals have won their four games since we last made these rankings so they remain solidly at the top. Williams came close to beating Wesleyan in the final game, and in the process they reminded us that Wesleyan is far from unbeatable. What makes the Cardinals the best in the NESCAC is that they have no weaknesses. Take defense, an area where NESCAC teams often struggle to have consistency. As a team, Wesleyan has only 17 errors, the lowest in the NESCAC and good enough for the best fielding percentage as well. Even more impressive is that the Cardinals are yet to have a game where they commit more than two errors. Not making errors is sexy, and it helps win ball games.

2. Amherst (10-6, 3-0). Last Ranking: 3

Anytime you AVERAGE 20 runs per game over a three game stretch like the Jeffs did this weekend against Middlebury, we are going to take notice. Plenty of gaudy stat lines came out of it as a result, but the best one goes to NESCAC Player of the Week 2B Andrew Vandini ’16. Vandini went 8-12, walked four times, scored eight runs, knocked in 14 teammates, and hit two home runs during the weekend. He did strike out one time so there is room for improvement. The Jeffs can pretty much cement their place in the playoffs if they win their series against Williams this weekend.

3. Tufts (15-4, 2-1). Last Ranking: 2

The Jumbos drop a spot but we actually feel better about them now than we did two weeks ago. The conference loss to Bowdoin is the only one in their last 12 games, and Tufts is currently on a six-game winning streak. Kyle Slinger ’15 looked good once again this weekend against Brandeis and has now put his early season injury problems completely behind him. Also, don’t worry about Tufts striking out 112 times, the second most in the league. That’s because they employ a patient approach which is why they have 90 walks, 21 more than any other team.

4. Colby (11-4, 2-1). Last Ranking: 4

Are you buying or selling stock in Colby right now? They are 4-1 against NESCAC opponents (they won two non-conference games against Hamilton), and their one loss came on a walk-off homer. Yet, the starts of some of their offensive players are almost too good to believe. Chiefly, Tommy Forese ’16 who has hit four home runs and has an OBP of .500 after only getting 14 at-bats and hitting .214 last season. Others like Tim Corey ’15 are also enjoying big bumps in production from a year ago. The Mules have gotten somewhat limited production from Jason Buco ’15, so if others take a step back he could pick up the slack.

5. Bates (6-7, 1-1). Last Ranking: 5

The Bobcats are the slightest of smidgeons above the Polar Bears in our minds right now. The fact that the teams split a doubleheader on Sunday in which neither game was close certainly did us no favors in figuring out which team to put ahead of the other. Connor Colombo ’16 has emerged as one of the starters who will get the ball every weekend, but he has still only thrown 15.0 innings, the highest of any Bates starter. Seventeen different pitchers have thrown a full inning, a crazy high amount that shows how unsettled the pitching rotation is. Manager Mike Leonard will have to be able to push the right buttons to make sure the best guys get on the mound.

6. Bowdoin (7-11, 2-3). Last Week: 6

The overall record still does not look great, and the Polar Bears are stuck in neutral for the moment. Peter Cimini ’16 has struggled with an injury that has kept him out for most of the season, and the lineup has not hit well outside of a couple of core players like Chad Martin ’16 and Aaron Rosen ’15. Do they have a weekend where they can play well in every aspect of the game and sweep their opponent? They play at Wesleyan in a non-conference doubleheader Saturday. A good performance against the Cardinals could give them a little more confidence as they enter the stretch run.

7. Williams (6-9, 3-3). Last Ranking: 8

Getting swept by Wesleyan is not the worst thing in the world, but it does put pressure on Williams this weekend against Amherst. A series win is almost a must to keep the Ephs above .500. Both Dan Smith ’16 and Thomas Murphy ’15 have ERA’s close to 8.00, though Smith did contain the Wesleyan lineup enough to give Williams a chance in the final game of the series. The Ephs are hoping that they can keep the games more low-scoring against the fearsome Amherst lineup

8. Trinity (9-7, 1-2). Last Ranking: 7

Trinity is bringing up the rear in the East for now mostly because their offense has simply lacked punch this year. Their rotation has the third-best ERA in the league, and Jed Robinson ’16 and Nick Fusco ’18 both have ERA’s below 1.00. The problem is the offense has a NESCAC-worst .338 OBP, a full 31 percentage points worse than the second-to-last team. Besides his walk-off home run, Daniel Pidgeon ’16 has struggled at the plate with a .189 BA. He and other Bantam mainstays have to become more consistent at the dish.

9. Hamilton (7-5, 0-0). Last Ranking: 9

The final NESCAC team without a game in conference play, the Continentals are itching to get going finally. The Continentals have played only one game since returning from their Florida trip on March 24 so we have very little new information on them. Cole Dreyfuss ’16 has been a revelation with a 1.33 ERA. He has pitched more than six innings in each of his three starts which is important because the bullpen for Hamilton has struggled. They plan to travel to Middlebury for their opening series on Friday, though the opener could be pushed to Saturday because of weather.

10. Middlebury (0-12, 0-6) Last Ranking: 10

The Panthers got smacked by a very good Amherst team last weekend as they continue to struggle. The one area where Middlebury has been decent is their offense. They are sixth in OBP, but their inability to hit for power or steal bases has hamstrung the offense. Catcher Max Araya ’16 and shortstop Johnny Read ’17 are both hitting above .350 while some of the freshmen are also hitting well. The Panthers will try to get their first win against Hamilton, a team they beat twice a year ago.

Start your Engines (Sort of): Weekend Preview 3/27

Middlebury and Williams open their conference season in sunshine and heat. (Courtesy of Matthew Dickerson)

We knew all the way back in February that the snow was going to have an impact on the NESCAC schedule, and sure enough, two of the four opening series have been moved back to May. Middlebury and Williams will play in Arizona unaffected by the weather while Tufts and Bowdoin will play their games at the New England Baseball Complex in Northborough, Massachusetts. The Jumbos and Polar Bears are playing a doubleheader today before taking a couple of days off and playing the final game on Monday night.

Two to Watch

1. Starting Pitcher Tim Superko ’17 (Tufts): Three starts into the season and Superko has looked fantastic in two but got tagged in the other. One of his good starts was also against St. Joseph, who Tufts beat 20-0 so take that one with a large lump of salt. Superko’s strength is his ability to strikeout hitters. Last year, he went six innings and allowed only one run against Bowdoin in a Tufts’ win. The sophomore has some of the best pure stuff in the league. Questions about the health of Kyle Slinger ’15 and others means Superko is the only Tufts starter we know for sure will start this weekend according to Manager John Casey. That makes his start all the more important. A banged up staff needs him to go deep into his game, something that he was not great at as a freshman.

2. Outfielder Luke Pierce ’15 (Williams): The Williams offense has not gotten into gear yet mostly because of the struggles of a few key players like Pierce early on. The Ephs graduated a couple of their big boppers from a year ago, and Pierce is a more important piece than he was a year ago. Though he has one home run, his average is .217 and he is yet to draw a walk. He has only struck out three times in 23 at-bats so he is not getting overpowered or anything like that. Perhaps he has simply been putting too much pressure on himself in the early going. The slump will end soon enough, and the Ephs are hoping that this weekend is when Pierce busts out.

The Picks

Williams (3-3, 0-0) vs Middlebury (0-6, 0-0): 4:00 PM Friday (Thomas Murphy ’15 vs. Eric Truss ’15) , 2:00 PM Saturday (Luke Rodino ’17 vs. Cooper Byrne ’15) , and 5:00 PM Saturday (Dan Smith ’16 vs. TBD) in Tucson, Arizona.

Expected high for Tucson tomorrow is 92 degrees. Go ahead and let that one sink in a little.

As for baseball, the Panthers are still trying to get into the win column while Williams has looked a little shaky so far. Both staffs are riddled with question marks, and Thomas Murphy ’15 is the only starter for either team that projects as an above average pitcher. Murphy won his first start after allowing one ER in seven innings, but he had to scatter nine hits along the way. Both Dan Smith ’16 and Luke Rodino ’17 struggled in their first starts, and while they should start again this weekend, other options like Nate Michalski ’17 give the Ephs some flexibility. The struggles of the Ephs pale in comparison to those of the Panther pitchers. The Middlebury team ERA is 13.92 right now. Why they are 0-6 can be summed up in that one number.

Coach Bob Smith has yet to announce his third starter, but the ball will likely be handed to first-year Rob Erickson ’18 after a positive relief appearance on Tuesday. The big righty toss seven innings of three-run ball before tiring and allowing three runs in the bottom of the ninth against Grace University. Nevertheless, if he can toss like he did over the first seven innings of that outing, Erickson has a chance to shut down the Williams offense in Game Three. That being said, there’s no guarantee that Erickson will even be tabbed the starter.

Both offenses should put up numbers, and it will be fun to see how Dylan Sinnickson ’15 hits against NESCAC pitching. In the end Williams has more to lose, if that makes sense. Dropping a game or two to Middlebury would spell deep trouble for making the playoffs. For the Panthers, the offense will have to go off in one game to overcome their pitching.

Prediction: Williams wins two of three

Projected Starters: Friday 2:30 PM (Tim Superko ’17 vs. Henry Van Zant ’15), Friday 4:30 PM ( TBD vs. Harry Ridge ’16), Monday 7:00 PM (TBD vs. Erik Jacobsen ’15)

If you get angry when the ball gets put into play and prefer when fielders simply act as cheerleaders for the pitchers, then the (potential) matchup of Superko and Van Zant is the game for you. As noted above, Superko is a strikeout whiz, and Van Zant is just as good in that department. Van Zant has the stuff to be great this year after seeing his junior year mostly wiped out by injury. Before that, he was overshadowed by his older brother Oliver Van Zant ’13, one of Bowdoin’s best pitchers in recent memory. Be assured that Van Zant will come out for this start firing gas.

Besides Superko, the other starters for Tufts are up in the air which could end up leaving a golden opportunity for Bowdoin. Harry Ridge ’16 and Erik Jacobsen ’15 both have a lot of experience and will battle the Tufts lineup. We might see Kyle Slinger ’15 in the Monday game because of the extra couple days of recovery.

The Jumbo offense has picked up pretty much where it was last year. The defining characteristic for them is how often they walk. So far, Tufts has walked 66 times while striking out only 73 times. As a team Tufts has an OBP of .449. Matt Moser ’16 is a star at shortstop with a slashline of .358/.426/.396. The one thing that Tufts does not do much is hit for power as Tommy O’Hara ’18 has their only homer all year.

After a breakout season in 2014, Chad Martin ’16 is showing his power again and has an impressive .585 slugging percentage. Peter Cimini ’16 has been slowed by a leg injury which has put the outfield positions in flux so far for Bowdoin. The best news for Bowdoin so far in the hitting department is that shortstop Sean Mullaney ’17 has an OBP of .462 after hitting below the Mendoza line last year. If he can keep that up, he combines with Aaron Rosen ’15 for one of the best middle infields in the league.

The Polar Bears are lucky to catch Tufts at this point in the season, and much of the following prediction is based off of those injuries to Tufts.

Prediction: Bowdoin wins two of three

Balance Necessary for Ephs: Williams Baseball Season Preview

Williams starts the season today in Arizona. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

2014 Record: 13-16 (7-5, Third in NESCAC East), missed NESCAC playoffs

Starters Returning: 8 (6 Position Players, 2 Starting Pitchers)

Projected Lineup: (Stats are from 2014)

SS Jack Roberts ’17 (.302/.342/.368, 1 HR, 19 RBI)
2B Beau Horan ’16 (.163/.260/.209, 0 HR, 5 RBI
LF Luke Pierce ’15 (.312/.371/.440, 1 HR, 22 RBI)
CF Jack Cloud ’17 (.402/.463/.526, 0 HR, 22 RBI)
C Phil McGovern ’15 (.276/.325/.362, 0 HR, 17 RBI)
1B Nate Michalski ’17 (.230/.293/.311, 0 HR, 16 RBI)
RF David Rosas ’16 (.306/.342/.333, 0 HR, 5 RBI)
3B Adam Regensburg ’18
DH Kirby Neuner ’15 (.222/.467/.333, 0 HR, 2 RBI)

RHP Thomas Murphy ’15 (5-2, 3.77 ERA, 5.23 K/9, 43.0 IP)
RHP Luke Rodino ’17 (0-2, 5.63 ERA, 5.62 K/9, 24.0 IP)
RHP Daniel Smith ’16 (1-2, 9.98 ERA, 10.57 K/9, 15.1 IP)

Offensive Overview:

The unquestioned strength of the Ephs a year ago was their hitting. They were first overall in the NESCAC in OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage). They will certainly miss Matt Kastner ’14 and Thomas Stephens ’14, but with guys like Jack Cloud ’17 and Luke Pierce ’15 back, they will once again be very good. Cloud hit .402 as a freshman, and it will be exciting to see what he can do as a sophomore. Fellow sophomore Jack Roberts ’17 cooled off in conference, but he still hit over .300. A lot of spots are still very much in the air near the bottom of the lineup. Adam Regensburg ’18 will open at third base, but he can also play outfield so he might move around some this season. The core guys at the top have a shot at making this a scary offense once again.

Defensive Overview:

The Ephs defense was just about average in 2014. Their 49 errors, second least in the NESCAC a year ago, is a little misleading because they only played 29 games. For comparisons sake, Tufts played 43 games and made 52 errors. Roberts is moving from second base and replacing departed senior Kastner at shortstop. He had only four errors a year ago, but obviously shortstop is a much harder position to handle. Pierce did not have a single error last year, and he and Cloud will make a nice outfield duo. Phil McGovern ’15 brings experience at the catcher position.

Pitching Overview:

Pitching was unquestionably the major weakness for the Ephs a year ago, but they were actually better than their league worst 6.46 ERA would suggest. If you look only at conference games, the staff had a 3.95 ERA which was a middle of the pack mark. They will miss Steve Marino ’14, but Thomas Murphy ’15 has a chance to be a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation. He started five of their twelve NESCAC games and had a 2.84 ERA while also pitching three complete games. Behind him, Luke Rodino ’17 was solid his freshman year, and the sophomore should improve. Daniel Smith ’16 will get the first chance at the final weekend starting spot. His 9.98 ERA in 15.1 IP is obviously scary, but a 10.57 K/9 ratio indicates that he has the stuff to be a much better pitcher. As a group cutting down on the number of walks will be a key. That is sure to be a focus for new assistant coach, Tanner McIntrye,

Storylines to Watch:

1. In what direction is the program moving?

From 2006-2010, the Ephs finished first or tied for first in the NESCAC West every single year. In the four seasons since then, they have returned to the playoffs only once when they snuck in at 7-5 in the 2012 season. The emergence of Wesleyan and strength of Amherst has made the West a much tougher division, but there is certainly room for Williams to make some noise still. Manager Bill Barrale has been at the helm for eight seasons, and his first four were much more successful than his last four. Last season was a step in the right direction finishing above .500 in conference, and this season must continue that momentum.

2. Do they solve elite pitching?

While the offense was phenomenal for the most part last year, they scuffled against Amherst and Wesleyan. In those six games, the Ephs scored only 3.3 runs per game. In being swept by Wesleyan they managed only five runs in three games. For some reason their bats went cold for those games which was the worst possible time for them. Murphy should give the Ephs a good shot in the two games he pitches against Wesleyan and Amherst, and if the bats come alive then the Ephs can start thinking about breaking into the playoffs.

3. Is Daniel Smith ’16 the answer?

Finding a third consistent starter is huge for NESCAC teams. Teams usually throw their ace on Friday and keep their lesser starters for the Saturday doubleheader. At the very least having a third starter who can go five innings and keep you in the game before turning things over the bullpen is a necessity. As said above, Smith’s ERA from last year should come way down because of his ability to strikeout hitters. How far down it comes depends on whether he can keep the ball on the ground. A few other pitchers like Arnie Capute ’16 and Eddie Kelly ’15 could also end up starting in the rotation, but Williams would really like Smith to establish himself on their trip to Arizona.

Biggest Series: April 10-11 against Amherst

No question about this one. Not only is this a meeting of the arch-rivals, but a series win would be huge for Williams’ playoff hopes. While Wesleyan is a juggernaut, Amherst is an extremely talented but more vulnerable team. A year ago Williams won one of the three games. The Ephs play Wesleyan the weekend before, but this is the one that really matters.