John LeFeber – Nothing But NESCAC

Power Rankings Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5ijgWbDWCE

Last week we promised a big blowout of the Power Rankings, and today we deliver. We take a look at all the teams that won’t be making the playoffs this season and are done for 2014. We will cover what went right, what went wrong, and make a way too early prediction about how they will do in 2015. Thursday we will rank the four playoff teams.

10. Middlebury (5-24, 2-10)

What Went Right: Not very much. You have to hit bottom before you start going up again, and Middlebury baseball fans better hope that 2014 represents rock bottom. The only thing that really worked was Alex Kelly ’14 in the outfield and at the plate. Other positives for the Panthers to draw on were their improved pitching and defense. A young pitching staff battled all year with reliever Jake Stalcup ’17 having the best overall season. Max Araya ’16 also emerged as an above average offensive catcher who could serve as an anchor going forward, although there is some question about where he will start 2015 defensively. Middlebury struggled down the stretch winning only one of their last 13 games, but they looked better and more competitive than earlier in the year.

What Went Wrong: It might sound blunt, but there just wasn’t enough talent in Middlebury to compete. The statistics say that Middlebury had the worst hitting, fielding, and barely second worst pitching. You can’t help but sympathize for the seniors who have been there all four years and have watched as the program struggles to gain a foothold. Only one regular hit above .300 and no starter finished with an ERA under 4.50. This was simply a case of a season where nothing really went right for Middlebury. They had brief moments of competence and gave some of the top teams scares, but they weren’t good enough to get over the hump.

2015 Outlook: The key will be maintaining commitment during the offseason so that the Panthers return in 2015 ready to play. Players up and down the roster are going to have opportunities to get playing time, and it is simply a matter of who steps up when their number gets called. 2015 should be better for Middlebury, but they have a long way to go.

9. Hamilton (10-16, 2-10)

What Went Right: Hamilton and Middlebury were very similar teams this year. They both lacked depth, had pitching that held tough but couldn’t consistently get batters out, and struggled mightily fielding and hitting while sporting a fantastic leadoff hitter. For Hamilton, that was Joe Jensen ’15. He had a fantastic year with 23 stolen bases, 23 runs, and a .495 OBP. Hamilton’s best quality was their speed as they placed second in the NESCAC with 63 stolen bases. The other notable base stealers were Chris and Kenny Collins ’17. Of the two twins, Kenny finished the season especially strong with two three hit performances against Williams to help up his OBP to .422. Four of Hamilton’s top five batters in terms of plate appearances were freshmen who should see improvement in 2015.

What Went Right: The expected stars for this team were Zack Becker ’16 and Jjay Lane ’15, but both of them struggled to match their 2013 performances. Lane had an up-and-down season on the mound finishing with a 5.35 ERA. He never really found his groove and had trouble getting batters out in large part because he struck out only 3.74 batters per nine innings. Still, Becker had perhaps an even more disappointing year. Some regression was expected from his .434 OBP in 2013, but not many thought he would fall all the way to a .274 mark. By the end of the season he was a part time player because of his struggles. Overall, a very young lineup struck out this season with nobody capable of delivering the big hits that the Continentals needed.

2015 Outlook: Modest improvement should be expected from a Hamilton squad that showed potential early on. Almost everybody will be back besides a few secondary parts. If Lane gets straightened out then Hamilton will win at least four NESCAC games.

8. Trinity (16-17, 4-8)

What Went Right: Trinity showed a lot of resilience in their play down the stretch going on a nice winning streak and splitting against Wesleyan. Brian Wolfe ’15 stepped up to become the team’s best hitter over the course of the season, and his classmate Daniel Pidgeon ’15 enjoyed a successful season as well. Their pitching kept them in a lot of games, but the offense wasn’t powerful enough to take full advantage. Trinity won at least one game in every series, but they were incapable of ever going on a run in conference play to make a real move up the standings.

What Went Wrong: The schedule makers did no favors to this team with their four NESCAC series played on consecutive weekends. At one point, nine of ten games Trinity played had conference ramifications. We are used to watching powerful Trinity offenses, but those players just weren’t on the roster. The fact that they hit only two homers is telling. Trinity had almost every position player on its roster see significant playing time because nobody was playing well enough to make the coaches play them. The pitching staff was solid as mentioned above, but in college baseball you need pitchers who can singlehandedly win games for you. No one on Trinity was able to distinguish themselves as capable of that.

2015 Outlook: The East is all of a sudden very crowded, so expecting Trinity to simply return to the top is foolish. The offense will be better and the pitching potential is there, but anything better than a .500 season in the NESCAC will be a surprise for the Bantams.

7. Bowdoin (18-16-1, 5-7)

What Went Right: Young players who needed to step up did so in a big way. The most obvious of those were Peter Cimini ’16 and Chad Martin ’16. The duo went from non-factors in 2013 to the linchpins of the Bowdoin offense. Elsewhere Michael Staes ’16 emerged as a potential weekend starter for next season with a 2.29 ERA in 35.1 innings, and Jon Fraser ’15 also had a spectacular season in limited duty with a 0.76 ERA. The statistics said that Bowdoin underperformed as a team in conference. This was a team with some of the best pitching in the league, but lacked the ace that other teams had to shut down opponents. Bowdoin seemed to play every team when they were playing their best, but managed to win at least one game in every series.

What Went Wrong: Bowdoin graduated a superb class in 2013, but still had a lot of talented players in the 2014 class who were expected to lead this team. That just didn’t happen whether it was because of injury for Christian Martin ’14 or inconsistent play from John Lefeber ’14 and Duncan Taylor ’14. Lefeber and Taylor ended up with solid statistics, but they just weren’t the stars the team needed. The other big loss was not having Henry Van Zant ’15 available for most of the year. He flashed what he could do posting a 1.95 ERA in 27.2 innings. The team’s true weakness however was in the field where they had the second most errors in the NESCAC. 36.4 percent of the runs Bowdoin allowed this year were unearned.

2015 Outlook: The silver lining of a disappointing 2014 is that most of what went wrong won’t take away from the 2015 team. Van Zant should be healthy and the loss of all the seniors will not sting nearly as much as would have been believed before the season started. A return to the playoffs is definitely possible.

6. Colby (16-15, 5-7)

What Went Right: The final conference record is a disappointment, but Colby has a lot to be proud of from their 2014. We expected them to improve somewhat, but not many thought they would be on top of the East Division until April 18. The key was improvement by players already on the roster. Jason Buco ’15 delivered an MVP-quality season by leading the NESCAC with seven homers, and Kevin Galvin ’14 was a more than capable Robin to give him support. The biggest difference in 2014 though was the pitching. Scott Goldberg ’15 and Greg Ladd ’15 put in the work to become leaders of the staff while Soren Hanson ’16 showed he is also close to being an ace down the stretch. Overall the Mules improved their ERA by 1.90 runs in 2014.

What Went Wrong: Colby didn’t end up making the playoffs because the supporting cast was not strong enough to support the stars on offense. In their final six conference games Colby averaged only 1.17 runs as they went 1-5 against Bates and Tufts. Colby’s pitching was very good, but they would have needed a Herculean effort to win with that type of offense. In many ways Colby’s baseball performance mirrored that of their basketball and football teams. It was filled with promise and strong performances for most of the season (beating Bates for football and upsetting Amherst for basketball), but ended on a sour note (the Hail Mary loss to Bowdoin in football and the first round NESCAC tournament loss for basketball).

2015 Outlook: The trend is definitely in the positive direction. The only loss of real significance is Galvin. Whether other players can make similar leaps to what some did this year will make the difference in 2015. Right now I say Colby makes the playoffs next year.

5. Williams (13-16, 7-5)

What Went Right: Some people will draw issue with a team with a losing record being considered the fifth best team in the NESCAC, but we are weighting conference games heavily. Williams also split a doubleheader against Bowdoin so it’s record against NESCAC teams was 8-6. Again, detractors will point out six of those wins came against cellar dwellers Middlebury and Hamilton, but every NESCAC game is hard-fought. The best thing Williams did was beat the teams they should have in conference play. Their offense was scintillating in the early going with a host of players putting up gaudy numbers. The high point of their season came after they won their first game against Amherst in four years and stood at 4-1 in the NESCAC on April 5.

What Went Wrong: The pitching improved as the season went on, but was never reliable enough. Their teamwide statistics ended up being worse than last year underscoring the possibility they really didn’t improve at all in 2014. 2013 stats: .374 OBP and 5.73 ERA vs 2014 stats: .363 OBP and 6.46 ERA. They really struggled in non-conference play exposing the fact that they don’t have a lot of pitching depth. Williams squandered any chance at making the playoffs when they got swept by Wesleyan. The best pitching was able to make their offense struggle. Overall a very mixed year for a team that was riding high early on before reality set in a little in the middle part of the year.

2015 Outlook: Several key cogs have to be replaced as well as innings leader Steve Marino ’14, but there will still be a lot of firepower in Williamstown. However Williams probably won’t improve their conference record in 2015.

East Power Rankings April 9

Two weekends of conference of play have gone by, and the East Division looks increasingly muddled. We knew entering the season that Bates and Colby would be improved, Bowdoin and Trinity had lost a lot of talent, and Tufts probably had the most potential in the division. All of that has held true, and it has made the first two weekends unpredictable. Without further ado, here are my rankings of the East so far this season.

1. Tufts (17-1, 1-0) – Putting Tufts first is an easy choice given their dominance so far this season. Yet they have only played one conference game because they were off this weekend and had their doubleheader against Bates postponed two weekends ago. Centerfielder Connor McDavitt ’15 has been outstanding at the top of the linep with a .449 OBP and seven stolen bases without being thrown out once. The Jumbos have great balance on offense and rival Amherst for the best staff in the league. The only possible wart they have shown thus far is their propensity to allow a lot of walks. Ace Kyle Slinger ’15 especially has given out a lot of free passes with 16 walks in 32 innings. Besides that Tufts doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses. Tufts has proven beyond a doubt that they are the best team on paper, but we still aren’t sure how they will look in conference play. Even if they sweep Trinity to go to 4-0 in conference it probably tells us more about Trinity than Tufts. Still, given their talent level, any finish below first in the East will be a surprise.

2. Colby (10-4, 2-1) – This has been the NESCAC’s surprise team so far this season, but people should probably wait a weekend before piling onto the bandwagon. The Colby-Bowdoin series on Friday and Saturday will show if Colby will be in it for the long haul. Right now the Mules are riding high after taking two of three from Trinity. Jason Buco ’15 made us look pretty smart for highlighting him on Friday when he hit two homers the first game of the weekend to up his season total to four. Scott Goldberg ’15 was chased in the fifth inning by the Trinity bats, but Lucas Geoghegan ’14 was superb in relief going 4.1 scoreless innings for the win as Buco’s second homer in the seventh proved to be the difference. Colby couldn’t complete the sweep when Trinity broke a 4-4 tie in the eighth of the finale, but they are still happy with the weekend’s results. Geoghegan (1.76 ERA) has rebounded to his 2012 performance after he saw limited action last season, and both Greg Ladd ’15 (2.50 ERA) and Goldberg (1.53 ERA) have taken a big step forward. All of this has helped Colby’s pitching be much better than last year. If that pitching continues then Colby will prove they aren’t a fluke.

3. Bowdoin (11-6-1, 3-3) – Wait didn’t Bates just beat Bowdoin in two out of three games this weekend! Look, Bates played great and gave Bowdoin trouble, but I am not going to overreact to one weekend of games even if they were head-to-head. Bowdoin is still rounding into form on the mound with Christian Martin ’14 making his first appearance of the year and Henry Van Zant ’15 making his third relief appearance. Bates knocked around both Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Harry Ridge ’16 in the first two games, but the two should rebound. Ridge had been spectacular so far until he allowed six runs in only three innings on Saturday prompting some to worry he will see a repeat of last season when he struggled in some starts while looking great in others. Outfielder John Lefeber ’14 has really struggled in the six league games going 2-22 at the plate. He and Aaron Rosen ’15 (.276 AVG) have yet to bust out at the plate, but have done a good job drawing walks to get on base. Expect those two to show up big in the next few weekends. The good news is that Jay Loughlin ’14 came up huge on the mound in the final game to give Bowdoin the win in the finale, and Bowdoin can reclaim control of their destiny by winning this weekend against Colby.

4. Bates (8-9, 2-2) – They showed why some thought that the Bobcats were primed for a surprise run this season this past weekend against Bowdoin. Our other player to watch heading in to the weekend, Brad Reynolds ’14, won NESCAC Pitcher of the Week after he went six innings, allowed only one (unearned) run, and struck out ten. Kevin Davis ’14 went 8-13 and had an impressive 10 RBIs over the three games. There are a lot of positives right now for Bates, but they are still below .500 on the season. Number two starter Chris Fusco ’14 got knocked around in the second game though the offense was good enough to overcome his lackluster start. Will Levangie ’15 probably solidified his status as the third starter with his performance in the final game, but that was really his first good performance of the season. Behind Davis and Griffin Tewksbury ’14 the offense has been very lackluster. Bates needs those two to continue to rake and others to step up in order for the offense to offset some of the questions about the pitching behind Reynolds.

5. Trinity (7-12, 2-4) – By far the biggest disappointment to-date in the NESCAC in head coach Bryan Adamski’s first season, the Bantams have shown flashes, but at this point it is looking more and more unlikely that they will be able to make a playoff push. The question is exactly how far they have fallen. An optimistic view says they are good enough to steal a game from Tufts and could easily win or even sweep their series against Bates. A pessimist says we are judging them off of past success and they really aren’t that good. The pessimistic view also suggests that we are overrating Colby and Bowdoin for their series victory over the Bantams. The starting pitching this weekend against Colby was very good in every game, but in the first two games the bullpen faltered. The offense was pretty much dormant until it exploded for five runs in the final inning of the second game. The rally fell short by one run, but showed Trinity is not going to go quietly into the night. Brian Wolfe ’15 and Scott Pidgeon ’15 have been carrying the offense, and they need others to step up. With three games still remaining against Tufts, Trinity is in position to force a rise through the rankings if they can put the pieces together.

Bowdoin Season Preview

Bowdoin (23-15, 8-4 in 2013)

What they lost:

Nobody can deny that Bowdoin lost a lot from last year. The 2013 class was one of the most decorated in school history, headlined, of course, by Oliver Van Zant. The contributions Dan Findley, Luke Regan and Tim McGarry made in the lineup were critical for the Bowdoin offense. Replacing those three might end up being harder than replacing Van Zant, because the pitching staff remains very deep for Bowdoin.

2014 MVP: OF John Lefeber ’14

After lighting the league on fire as a freshman, Lefeber went through somewhat of a sophomore slump in 2012, but saw his numbers rebound in 2013. The senior will now have to step up and become the team’s best hitter and leader in the outfielder. Lefeber is a gap to gap hitter who led off games down the stretch last season, but might see time in the middle of the lineup because of the graduation of Findley, Regan and McGarry. The Bowdoin offense was only mediocre last year and they lost a lot in those three. Lefeber could also see an increase in innings on the mound. A huge season from Lefeber is a must for this team to repeat 2013’s success.

2014 Pitcher of the Year: Christian Martin ’14

Martin has been overshadowed his entire career by the dominance of Oliver Van Zant ’13. Now that Van Zant is gone, the expectation is for the left-handed Martin to step right in and be the ace. An argument could even be made that Martin was just as good as Van Zant last year. The southpaw boasted a better K/9 rate, started one more game, and actually allowed seven fewer runs than Van Zant (though Martin had five more earned runs allowed than his senior). He is the prototypical long lefty in the mold of a Randy Johnson or a Chris Sale. Martin has made an All-NESCAC team in three seasons already, but hasn’t been on the first team since his freshman year.

Season Outlook:

The formula remains the same for Bowdoin as they will rely on their pitching and defense paired with timely hitting. The top three starters, Martin, Henry Van Zant ’15 and Harry Ridge ’16, already have a lot of experience. The younger Van Zant brother has the stuff of a power righty, but has to do a better job mixing up his pitches and location. Meanwhile, Ridge, another left-hander, had an up and down season last year, having some great starts, but also giving up too many homers. The other pitchers who will see more time are Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Lefeber. The key for Bowdoin is if younger players can make the lineup dangerous from top to bottom. Guys like Cole DiRoberto ’15, Peter Cimini ’16, and Buddy Shea ’15 will have to provide consistency to keep Bowdoin balanced. The returning starters can be expected to put up numbers, but none of them are likely to be dominant forces capable of carrying the offense by themselves. If players who haven’t seen much playing time so far manage to make an impact then Bowdoin will be right back in the thick of the NESCAC race despite all the talent they lost from last year.