Chasing Rings: NESCAC Baseball Playoff Preview

Friday, May 10 – Sunday, May 12

Colby College – Waterville, ME

Game #1: (2) Bates vs (1) Williams – Friday @ 2:30 PM

The first game of this year’s NESCAC playoffs features the #2 seed in the East, Bates, taking on the #1 from the West, Williams. Williams was able to edge themselves to the top of the West, taking the #1 seed from Middlebury based on head-to-head record. Williams was able to capture this title through defeating Wesleyan in the final game of their series last weekend. A Kellen Hatheway 2-run home run in the top of the 9th broke the even score and eventually sent Williams on to the tournament. Bates is probably the biggest surprise in this field. Trinity was ranked better than them all season, and even had received national votes, but after taking 2 of three games from the Bantams at home, Bates went on to sweep both of their CBB rivals and secure themselves a playoff spot, 1 game ahead of Trinity.

Likely Starters:

Bates: RHP Nolan Collins ’20 (7-1, 2.44 ERA, 52K, 59IP)

Williams: LHP Jack Bohen ’19 (5-0, 2.24 ERA, 44.2IP)

Williams will likely feature senior left hander Jack Bohen on the mound to face the Bobcats. Bohen has had an absolute career-year this season, lowering his ERA from 4.60 last year down to 2.24 this year. Bohen is coming off of what was most likely the best, and most important, game of his career to date. In a must-win series Bohen came out and tossed 8 innings, giving up no earned runs and walking just 2. It is clear to see in that stat book that Bohen is a pitch-to-contact hitter, because in those 8 innings of work he had just one strikeout. It is not always about the punchout and Bohen has been proving that this year. He has all the momentum he needs and I’m sure that he will not be looking to take his first loss of the season in this game. Bates will counter Bohen with right Nolan Collins, a junior from California. Collins had a breakout sophomore season last year in which he secured the #1 spot in the rotation. Since then he has done nothing but improve and help propel Bates to the playoffs. Aside from a bad start against Tufts, that most starters would’ve been happy with against the Jumbos, Collins has provided his team with more than enough opportunity to win in every game he has started, and for the most part they have won. Versus the common opponents that Bohen and Collins started against, Colby and Wesleyan, they have fairly similar numbers, perhaps Bohen having a slight edge. Both of these pitchers are in the top tier of NESCAC talent. It might be a struggle for both teams to get into an offensive rhythm, but it is the playoffs and anything can happen.

Key Offensive Talent

Bates

Christian Beal ’21

You can’t talk about the Bates lineup without talking about Christian Beal ’21. Beal paces Bates with his 49 hits (4th in NESCAC), .371 AVG (4th in NESCAC), 9 doubles, 2 triples and 11 stolen bases. He is the spark plug for Bates and when he plays well, they play well. Bates are 10-5 in games which Beal collects 2 or more hits, and the fact that there are 15 games shows how impactful he has been. Supporting Beal is catcher Jack Arend ’20 who is hitting .370 with 23 RBI. Arend also leads the NESCAC in walks with 33, putting his OBP at .548, also tops in the conference. Arend’s uncanny ability to draw the walk is a valuable weapon, as can be seen by his 21 runs scored, 2nd best on the team. Justin White ’19, Bryan Gotti ’22 and Jon Lindgren ’20 have also been important pieces in the lineup, all three of them are hitting over .300. Bates has a couple of high quality offensive weapons with the support of several impactful bats. While this may have been enough against teams like Colby and Bowdoin, against teams like Williams, Bates may have to exceed expectations just to keep up.

Williams

Williams has one of the most potent offenses in the NESCAC. As a team, they lead the NESCAC in triples with 17, are second in the NESCAC with a .308 team average and are also second in hits with 340. One of William’s offensive starts that is much to thank for these stats is Eric Pappas ’21. Pappas is tied for the league lead in hits and reaches base nearly half the time with his .493 OBP. When a player almost has double as many hits as games, it is a good sign that they’re having a solid year. This is true of not only Pappas, but also his teammate Doug Schaffer ’19. Along with his 53 hits, Schaffer is 2nd in the NESCAC in doubles with 12 and leads the NESCAC in batting average (.433) and slugging (.633). Perhaps more impressive than all of these stats, Schafer leads the NESCAC is RBI with 46, 14 more than the next closest player. Schafer has an extremely strong case for Player of the Year and an invaluable asset for the Ephs. Erik Mini ’21 has provided some well-timed offense this year with his 3 home runs and 27 RBI. Kellen Hatheway ’19 has only started ⅔ of Williams’ contests but he had made the most of his time, hitting .407 and blasting the home run that sent Williams to the playoffs. Williams has proved throughout the year that they are one of the most potent offenses in the NESCAC and it will be tough for any starter to keep them completely quiet.

Prediction: (W1) Williams defeats (E2) Bates

Game #2: (2) Middlebury vs (1) Tufts – Friday @ 6 PM

After the conclusion of Bates versus Williams, Midd and Tufts will take the field for their first tastes of the 2019 postseason. Middlebury returns to the playoffs this year after narrowly missing out last season. They had basically the same scenario last year as they did this year, beat Amherst in a series and they’re in. While last year they fell short, they were able to redeem themselves this season and secure their playoff spot. Now they have to take on Tufts, who is looking for redemption after falling short of the NESCAC title last season. Tufts has had fairly smooth sailing in-conference this season, winning every series and sweeping Bowdoin and Colby.

Likely Starters:

Colby Morris ’19

Middlebury: RHP Colby Morris ’19 (5-2, 2.80 ERA, 50K, 61IP)

Tufts: RHP RJ Hall ’19 (6-0, 1.57 ERA, 3CG)

Morris and Hall have both been four-year starters for their respective programs, and were the only two pitchers to be named 1st Team All-NESCAC last season, with Morris taking Pitcher of the Year honors as well. It is safe to say that these two are among the most experienced and talented players in the NESCAC this season, and they will need to leave it all on the line Friday night to outduel their counterpart. In all but one of his starts this season Morris has gone at least 5 innings and given up 3 or less runs. In his last two starts Morris has left it all out on the line for his team, going all 9 in both starts. Morris is one of, if not the most, decorated pitchers in the history of the Middlebury program but is yet to capture that elusive NESCAC title. This will be one of the biggest games of Morris’ career and he has proved throughout that career that he won’t give in until the last pitch. Morris will need to maintain that ferocity in order to compete with RJ Hall, who has been extremely effective at keeping opponents off this scoreboard this season. Similar to Morris, Hall has recorded two complete games in his last two contests (although they were both 7 inning games). While Morris may have more career innings pitched than Hall, Hall has far and away more playoff experience than Morris. In Hall’s 5 playoff appearances, 4 starts, he has pitched a total of 35 innings and has a record of 2-2 with one save. Meanwhile Morris has just 2 starts, totalling 13 ⅓ IP and a 1-1 record. It is also important to note that Hall’s playoff ERA is 1.29 while Morris’ is 4.05. Perhaps experience in these high-stress playoff situations will prove vital and become a big advantage for Tufts, who has a roster chalk full of playoff experiences. It is also important to note that this matchup has already occured this year and it is evidence of just how closely these two starters matchup. In the previous game Tufts won on an 8th inning walk-off 4-3. Both Morris and Hall went for 6 innings and gave up three runs. Their statline was near identical. Based upon how close that result was, there is no clear edge here. It’s anybody’s game.

Key Offensive Players:

Middlebury

Middlebury’s offense has managed to score twice as many runs as its opponents this year, showing their dominance on both sides of the ball. This is thanks to the fact that their offense is so well-rounded and has valuable weapons up and down it. 8 Middlebury hitters have already collected 20 or more hits, with three more (Justin Han, Brooks Carroll and Henry Strmecki) have 35 or more. Similarly, 9 different Panthers have gone deep this year with three of them (Henry Strmecki ’21, Kevin Woodring ’20, and Alec Ritch ’22) have left the yard multiple times. From those statistic you could probably guess that Henry Strmecki is a vital part of the Midd offense, and you would be right. Strmecki is 2nd on the team in hits (35), batting average (.330) and leads the team in runs (34), RBI (24) and leads the NESCAC in home runs with 5. Justin Han ’20 has also been impressive for Midd, leading the team in hist with 36, doubles with 8 and stolen bases with 22. Stealing bags is where Midd excels and they will steal early and often. They have stolen 142 bags while they’ve had just 36 stolen against them. They are running with an 88.2% success rate compared to opponents 80%. 14 Middlebury players have recorded steals with 6 of them stealing 12 or more. Middlebury runs a fast, high-potency offense that is more than a challenge to contain, but if anyone were to be up to that challenge it would be RJ Hall and the Jumbos.

Tufts

Not enough can be said to describe how much better Tufts’ hitting is than basically every other team in the NESCAC East. In-conference they are hitting .319 and the next closest in the East is Bates with .283. They also have the most hits (128), triples (3), home runs (7), RBI (72), OBP (.414) and slugging (.442). Tufts has just been flat out better than all of their NESCAC opponents. While these numbers are real and hold value, it is important to note the level of competition in the East versus the West. The East was so top-heavy this year that it allowed the far and away best team, Tufts, to gain inflated statistics compared to NESCAC West teams. They gain this advantage because the level of competition is much more even in the West so it is much more difficult to gain the dominant statistics that many Tufts players have. That being said, they are still most likely the best offense in the NESCAC. 6 different Jumbos have multiple home runs and 6 of their starters are hitting at or well above .300. Elias Varinos ’20 leads the the team in hits with 45 and walks with 23. Casey Santos-Ocampo ’19 paces the team in dingers with 4 and freshman Peter DeMaria ’22 leads the NESCAC in doubles with 15. Tufts has no soft spots in their lineup and pitchers need to be mentally aware of that going in. You can’t feed a fastball to the 9 hitter because he can take you yard too. I’m yet to be convinced that anyone can truly outclass Tufts’ offense, so Midd will have to show us something special Friday.

Prediction: *Upset Alert* (W2) Midd beats (E1) Tufts

After Friday Predictions:

(2) Bates vs. (1) Tufts – Saturday @ 10:30am

In this game Tufts holds the clear advantage. They will be upset that they lost their initial game and take their anger out on an already down Bates team. Brent Greeley ’20 would most likely start the second game for the Jumbos and he has been solid this year, holding a 3-2 record and 2.99 ERA. Bates would send out Justin Foley ’19, who has a 6-2 record with a 3.59 ERA. These two did not match up head to head in the regular season but both recorded wins against each othersrespective club. In all reality, Tufts is the far more talented and experienced club and would be unlucky to win their first game and have no chance of letting the first two slip by when they’ve lost just 2 conference games all year.

Prediction: (E1) Tufts defeats (E2) Bates, (E2) Bates is eliminated

(1) Williams vs. (2) Middlebury – Saturday @ 2 PM

Sam Rohrer ’22

This matchup will likely feature Middlebury senior Colin Waters ’19 and Williams freshman Sam Rohrer ’22. Waters has the experience over the rookie Rohrer, but Waters has struggled this year while Rohrer has impressed many in his freshman campaign. Last time against Midd Rohrer went 7 strong innings and only gave up one run to get the win. Against Williams Waters went 6 innings and gave up 4 runs in a loss. Well the numbers and this years past tell us that Rohrer and Williams have the clear advantage, a playoff atmosphere and a underdog win against Tufts might propel Midd to championship Sunday.

Prediction: (W1) Williams defeats (W2) Middlebury

(1) Tufts vs. (2) Middlebury – Saturday 45 minutes after Williams vs. Midd

Tufts an Midd meet once again here in a rematch of the first round. This game is an elimination one so everything is one the line for both teams. This is where arm health and depth really comes into play. Midd likely will send freshman Alex Price ’22 to the mound here who has been lights out the last few weeks and is certainly a candidate for freshman of the year along with several of the Tufts first year hitters. Their conference leading ERA will be put to the test as will their waning arm health (Starter Michael Farinelli ’21 hasn’t pitched in weeks), however, they certainly are up to the task. For the Jumbos Hall could certainly appear but their bullpen is very deep, although not as talented as Midd’s, so they have lots of semi-qualified candidates. This game is an absolute free-for-all but I think the Jumbos have a winning tradition, mentality and expectation and will find a way to make the game theirs.

Prediction: (E1) Tufts defeats (W2) Midd – (W2) Midd eliminated

Championship Sunday:

(1) Williams (2-0) vs. (1) Tufts (2-1)

Game 6 @ 10:30 AM, Game 7 30 minutes after game 6 (if necessary)

In this championship scenario, Tufts will need to defeat Williams twice to take the crown while the Ephs just have to take one of the possible two games to be named NESCAC champions. One thing that Williams would have going for them is that they have played 1 less game than the Jumbos, saving important arms. Tufts’ bullpen will have already been overused at this point and one more game let alone two would take a huge toll. That being said, three games in three days is still a lot so while Williams will be in better shape they are not at 100% by any means. These two offenses are probably the best in the NESCAC and they will be facing some very tired pitching staffs. I would expect that Tufts would be able to get to Williams in the first game of the series, but they would have basically spent the lasts of their pitching. This would allow Williams to take the advantage in the final game of the playoffs an come out victorious.

Predicted Tournament Champ: Williams

There’s an “I” in Win: End-of-Season Awards Predictions

With championship weekend finally on the horizon, it is finally time to make our award predictions. This season has been one of the closest in recent memory in regard to individual accolades, with so many different guys up and down different lineups contributing to their team’s successes. We’ve got a lot of these so let’s jump right into it.

West Division

Comeback Player of the Year: IF Kellen Hatheway ‘19 (Williams)

At first glance it probably seems pretty stupid to pick a two-time all-league selection, former rookie of the year, and former defensive player of the year as the CPOY. But the last two years have been a lot bumpier than the first two for Hatheway, who hit a career-low .228 with 11 RBI last season, after hitting .331 and .362 with a combined 46 RBI his first two years. His chances at a bounce back senior year were derailed after 5 games to start the season, absent from the starting lineup for 9 games in a row due to an injury, missing all of his senior year spring trip. But Hatheway returned to the lineup at a key time and was as big a reason as any that the Ephs captured their first NESCAC West title since 2010, hitting .407 with 3 HR and 11 RBI, capped by a two-out, two-run home run in the top of the 9th in a de facto playoff game against Wesleyan on Saturday, a moment that will live in Williams baseball lore for quite some time.

Honorable Mention: RHP Michael Farinelli ’21 (Middlebury), 1B Doug Schaffer ’19 (Williams)

CF4 Slugger: OF Henry Strmecki ’21, Middlebury

5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .557 slugging percentage for a playoff team makes you a pretty obvious answer for this one. The ball was flying out of the park in Vermont all season, as the Panthers tied for second in the league with 16 dingers, led by their sophomore slugger at the heart of the order. An interesting note is that Strmecki actually didn’t hit any home runs in conference games this year, so we’ll see if he can continue swinging it in the games that matter most.

Honorable Mention: C Severino Simeone ’20 (Amherst)

Reliever of the Year: RHP George Goldstein ’21, Middlebury

The Middlebury sophomore class makes another appearance on this list, this team in the form of closer George Goldstein. Goldstein broke on to the scene as a freshman by posting a 1.70 ERA in 21.2 IP, but managed to one up himself and lower that number to a 1.18, in addition to a 10.07 K/9. We look forward to George’s senior year, when his ERA is a 0.34.

Honorable Mention: RHP Mike Dow ’19 (Amherst), RHP Kyle Dean ’20 (Williams)

Rookie of the Year: RHP Alex Price ’22 (Middlebury)

Well it’s good to know there won’t be too much of a drop off at Middlebury once Colby Morris’ standout career comes to a close in a few weeks. His apprentice actually beat him out in ERA, with Price’s 2.63 just nudging out Morris at 2.70. RHP Sam Rohrer ’22 (41.1 IP, 3.07 ERA, 3-1) and his numbers don’t quite do justice to the impact he has had on the Williams pitching staff that so desperately needed arms, and got arms, but I don’t think the gap is narrow enough to give to a guy whose team had the same conference record as Price’s.

Honorable Mention: RHP Sam Rohrer ’22 (Williams)

Cy Young Award: LHP Jack Bohen ’19 (Williams)

This is by far, I think, the one you could really flip a coin on. I took a long and hard look at Bohen and Colby Morris’ stats, and I went with Bohen, by a hair. Bohen has the edge in ERA, but Morris has pitched 16 more innings than Bohen, leading the conference with 61.0 – the best ability is availability, and no one was more available than Morris. What did it for Bohen was his conference numbers – 3-0, 26.2 IP, 2.06 ERA, as compared to Morris’ 2-2 in 31.0 IP with a 2.61 ERA. Bohen’s teams went 4-0 when he pitched in divisional games, as opposed to 3-5 without him. It also doesn’t make things any easier (or fairer) for Morris attempting to repeat and win this award a second year in a row, after posting a 1.68 ERA last season. It could really go either way and whoever it goes to is more than deserving.

Honorable Mention: RHP Colby Morris ’19 (Middlebury)

MVP: 1B Doug Schaffer ’19 (Williams)

What an absolute breakout year for Schaffer, who had just as good a chance of winning Comeback Player of Year as any but lost out to his classmate Kellen Hatheway ’19 by a slim margin. After two straight years of hitting .218 and .277, the senior first baseman exploded to lead the league with a .433 average and 46 RBI—14 more than anybody else – as well as a preposterous .633 slugging percentage, also a league-best. Schaffer had 38 career RBI in 283 at-bats prior to his senior season, just to put things in perspective. His detractors will point out that he didn’t have a single home run, which really doesn’t matter when you put up 46 RBI, and that he only hit .295 with 6 RBI in conference play, which is a fair criticism. But Schaffer was the best player all year on a divisional title winner and there just wasn’t a close enough competitor for it to be anybody else.

Honorable Mention: OF Joe Palmo ‘21 (Amherst), OF Henry Strmecki ’21 (Middlebury)

East Division

Comeback Player of the Year: RHP Justin Foley ’19 (Bates)

The Bobcats return to the playoffs for the third straight year on the backs of a killer 1-2 punch in the rotation. Beside RHP Nolan Collins ’20 playing Batman, is Foley playing Robin – in large part because of the huge step forward he took for his senior year. His ERA dropped from a 5.08 to a 3.59, his K/9 jumped from a 6.46 to an 8.07, and his IP climbed from 39.0 to 50.2, culminating in going 6-2 after going 2-4 as a junior. He might even be the hot hand in Lewiston right now; Foley has thrown two consecutive complete game shutouts against the likes of Colby and Bowdoin – the latter of which earned him the most recent NESCAC Pitcher of the Week honor. The former Mr. Baseball in Massachusetts will be heavily relied on this weekend if Bates has any opens of hoisting their first banner.

Honorable Mention: LHP Eric Mohl ’19 Trinity

CF4 Slugger: OF Matt Koperniak ’20 (Trinity)

Koperniak can’t be thrilled to be missing the NESCAC tournament once again, but his 4 HR, 26 RBI, and .591 slugging percentage (2nd in the league) are a huge reason why the Bantams might still have a chance at postseason baseball in the form of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this guy playing in the Cape Cod League for a bit this summer.

Honorable Mention: OF JP Knight ’20 (Tufts), OF Casey Santos-Ocampo ’19 (Tufts)

Reliever of the Year: RHP Spencer Langdon ’20 (Tufts)

It was quite the year for Langdon, who was moved into the Jumbos bullpen despite going 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 45 IP as a starter last season. It isn’t a move that I would make but that’s why John Casey is John Casey and I’m not. It has been a resounding success, with Langdon closing out 5 games for the NESCAC East leaders. While the 3.68 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, 3 of his 9 earned runs came in a spot start against Eastern Connecticut St. It’s also pretty scary to think about what his save numbers really good have been if they ever needed him – shockingly, his appearances in their 16-0 win against Bowdoin and 30-2 (30-2!) win over Salem State, both scoreless innings, were not in save situations.

Honorable Mention: LHP Eric Mohl ’19 (Trinity), RHP Alex Simon ’19 (Bates), RHP Colby Lewis (Bowdoin)

Rookie of the Year: RHP Cameron Crowley ’22 (Trinity)

51.1 IP. 8-0 record. 2.29 ERA. A complete game allowing 1 run in a win against Tufts – just a few highlights of Cameron Crowley’s freshman year in Hartford. That really speaks for itself, honestly. Perhaps the most impressive part of Crowley’s first collegiate season was that all of this success came despite a meager 4.23 K/9. To show an ability to pitch to contact and throw outs at such a young age is seriously impressive. If he comes back with a bit better stuff, he will dominate the league at an even higher level than he did this year.

Honorable Mention: IF Peter DeMaria ’22 (Tufts), IF Bryan Gotti (Bates)

Cy Young: RHP RJ Hall ’19 (Tufts)

If you really want to understand how good Hall was this season, then go scroll up ever so slightly and read through Cameron Crowley’s numbers again, and then learn that he didn’t even remotely warrant consideration for this award. Everything Crowley did, Hall did better for Tufts, and did it while leading Tufts to yet another division title. He went 6-0 and lead the NESCAC with a 1.57 ERA, and 3 complete games. He only threw 46 innings because of a brief stint on the DL (IL, excuse me), but returned just as strong as he was pre-injury, closing out his regular season going 7 strong in a win against Colby, allowing just 1 run.

Honorable Mention: RHP Nolan Collins’ 20 (Bates), RHP Cameron Crowley ’22 (Trinity)

MVP: OF Matt Koperniak ’20 (Trinity)

To be honest with you, I kind of hate this pick. I’m a big fan of rewarding team success, but baseball is dependent on so many other factors that I don’t think it’s as big of a deal. Yes, Trinity did not make the playoffs. But they still went 27-7 with an 8-4 record in the league, and Koperniak slashed .380/.473/.591 while hitting 4 HR and driving in 26. It’s not like his team stunk and his production certainly warrants consideration. The other thing, unfortunately, is that Bates’ top hitters (Jack Arend ’20 and Christian Beal ’21) aren’t quite on the same level as Koperniak and Tufts has had such good production up and down the lineup that no one person can be identified – anyone worth considering cancels the next guy out. The Jumbos have 5 guys hitting .300 or better with 20+ RBI (we’re rounding Casey Santos-Ocampo’s .298 up for the sake of this stat), but none of them quite have Koperniak’s numbers.

Honorable Mention: IF Peter DeMaria ’22 (Tufts), OF Christian Beal ’21 (Bates), OF JP Knight ‘19 (Tufts)