Nothing But NESCAC

The Weekend Preview April 11

We made it to week three of conference play. It finally feels like spring in most of New England even though that still means 50 degrees is warm for most of us. Bates and Amherst are off from conference play, but the rest of the teams play crucial games this weekend.

Marquee Matchup: Bowdoin (12-6-1, 3-3) vs. Colby (10-5, 2-1)

This matchup lacks the gravitas that one might expect from the best series of the weekend. A very strong case could be made that the Wesleyan-Williams series will have the most impact on the standings, but Bowdoin-Colby is still a CBB (Colby, Bowdoin, Bates) matchup with playoff implications. The results of this series will continue the process of sorting out the East behind Tufts.

Bowdoin took a step back last weekend losing two of three against Bates to fall to .500 in conference. Two way player Erik Jacobsen ’15 has arguably been the Bears MVP so far. While his 4.34 ERA doesn’t look great, most of that came as a result of his outing against Bates. What has made him so important is his hitting. Jacobsen’s slashline of .375/.455/.500 is a substantial improvement from last year’s respectable .310/.353/.391. He has had multiple hits in his last three games leading up to this weekend as well. Shortstop Aaron Rosen ’15 has been hitting the ball better highlighted by his 4-5 performance against St. Josephs on Wednesday. A potential difference maker is the bullpen. Michael Staes ’16 (1.45 ERA) and Jon Fraser ’15 (1.74) have looked great in limited roles and could pitch significant innings if one of the starters gets into trouble early.

For Colby everything starts offensively with stud outfielder Jason Buco ’15. His two home runs over the weekend puts him at a league leading four for the season, and his .774 slugging percentage is the best in the NESCAC. His partner in crime is third baseman Kevin Galvin ’14. The Rhode Islander has been one of the most improved players in the NESCAC going from a .267 OBP in 2013 to almost doubling that with a .491 mark this year. The pitching has been much improved as well. Scott Goldberg ’15 has already taken home a NESCAC Pitcher of the Week award. Meanwhile presumptive ace Soren Hanson ’16 has gone six innings and allowed three earned runs in all three of his starts. His strikeouts have gone up every game, so don’t be surprised if he puts it together for the first time very soon. A great start by him would be humongous for the Mules.

Three to Watch

1. Wesleyan Pitching Staff

Yes it is cheating to say you should watch an entire pitching staff and not just one player, but this is an absolutely huge weekend for every pitcher on Wesleyan. Williams showed against Amherst they could hit elite pitching, albeit not at the absurd level they were destroying other pitchers. Wesleyan pitching was straight up bad at the beginning of the season bottoming out when they let up 24 runs to Gustavus Aldophus. At that point their team ERA was 8.03, but in the seven games since then Wesleyan has had a 1.68 ERA. The overall ERA is now 4.85, and if Wesleyan can pitch just at that level it should be enough this weekend. Leading the turnaround have been Nick Cooney ’15, Jeff Blout ’14 and Gavin Pittore ’16. Blout has seen the greatest improvement of all; through four appearances he owned a 9.24 ERA, and in two starts since he has allowed one run for a 0.75 ERA. If Wesleyan wins two out of three the West Division playoff race ceases to exist unless Wesleyan and Amherst falter against lesser opponents.

2. Ryan Carr ’14 Starting Pitcher (Trinity)

The senior has started the final game of both series in conference, and those two games represent Trinity’s only victories in the NESCAC. Despite being 2-4 Trinity still has a chance to make the playoffs, but they need to take two out of three from Tufts for that to be a possibility. Carr hasn’t been spectacular with a 3.62 ERA, and he doesn’t strike a ton of guys out. With the Bantams visiting a powerful Tufts team, Carr needs to come up big once again for his team. If Carr tosses a gem and the Bantams manage to steal another game this weekend, a disappointing season could turn into a late rebound.

3. Zack Becker ’16 Second Baseman (Hamilton)

Becker was expected to do big things his sophomore year after a phenomenal rookie campaign, but it just hasn’t been there for the West Hartford kid. He has gotten on base at a below average rate of .317 OBP, and his slugging percentage is an abysmal .306. He had seemed to turn a corner hitting a homer and then registering his first multi-hit game in a March 24 doubleheader, but he is hitless in three games since then. Becker is too good to continue to struggle, and a breakout is a matter of when not if. Hamilton desperately needs him to be a middle of the order force because some of the freshmen they are having to play are really struggling. A Middlebury team that battled Wesleyan very hard comes to Clinton hungrily looking for their first conference victory. Becker’s time to step up is now.

First Year Spotlight

We wanted to take a minute to highlight a bunch of freshmen who have come into the NESCAC and had immediate impacts. Spring athletes have the advantage over those in other sports because they have two whole semesters to practice and get comfortable with college competition while captains can report back to coaches on first-year’s performances. On the other hand, experience is a valuable asset than isn’t gained in the fall and winter. This is by no means a complete list or ranking of who the best freshman in the NESCAC are, but these are the ones who have caught our eye so far.

Ellis Schaefer ’17 Third Baseman/Right Fielder (Wesleyan) – Schaefer started from day one in right field, but he has recently moved to the hot corner. His ability with the bat is readily apparent, and his 17 RBIs is second on the team. For the season he owns a .396 OBP and, despite playing two different positions, has committed only one error. Schaefer and Robby Harbison ’17 have taken a lineup that was already loaded and made it Mariana Trench deep.

Anthony Spina ’17 Left Fielder (Amherst) – It isn’t easy to come in and play as a freshman on a team as talented as Amherst, but Spina is the latest in a long line of Jeffs first-years to make a big difference. After getting only one at bat through five games, Spina has started every game since in left field. The Brooklyn boy now holds a .377 OBP and six stolen bases. He went hitless in the three games against Williams, but made up for it yesterday against MIT going 3-6 and scoring the tying run in the bottom of the eight. Spina’s classmate Yanni Thanapoulos ’17 has also emerged recently and has a scalding .524 OBP highlighted by a 3-3 day yesterday. You can read all about Amherst’s comeback win on the Amherst website here.

Ryder Arsenault ’17 Center Fielder (Colby) – Arsenault is another player who has worked his way from part time player to lead-off hitter and starting center fielder over the course of the spring. The New Hampton, NH native’s contributions were especially crucial this weekend for the Mules as he had timely hits in all three games. He is yet to make an error in the outfield, and his .444 OBP is ideal for a lead-off hitter. Colby’s success so far this season has been in large part because of returning players stepping their games up, but Arsenault’s play has also played a huge part.

Jack Cloud ’17 Left Fielder (Williams) – Earlier in the season, Cloud was overshadowed by fellow freshman Jack Roberts ’17, but while Roberts has regressed somewhat, Cloud has continued his superb play. His OBP of .480 is extraordinary and his slugging percentage of .644 is bolstered by his four triples so far. Cloud has batted near the bottom of the lineup most of the year providing a potent weapon that makes the Williams offense dangerous from top to bottom. Cloud could have a huge weekend against Wesleyan.

Ryan Wolfsberg ’17 First Baseman/Third Baseman/Right Fielder (Hamilton) – One reason for Hamilton’s offensive struggles this season is that they have a TON of freshmen in the lineup. After Joe Jensen ’15, the next five players in terms of plate appearances are all freshmen. The one who has been the best so far is Wolfsberg, a player without a natural position right now. He has a .405 OBP, but he understandably struggled against elite Amherst pitching. Hamilton will have had almost two weeks between games when they play against Utica today. They need Wolfsberg and some of his classmates like twins Chris and Kenny Collins ’17 to improve throughout the season to continue their nice start.

Johnny Read ’17 Shortstop (Middlebury) – Middlebury has a couple of other freshmen like Jason Lock ’17 playing well, but Read is the one who could have the biggest impact over the course of his career, purely because of the defensive pressure placed on his position as opposed to Lock, who plays 1B/DH. Read returned from a shoulder injury to play every game against Wesleyan and looks like he is the starting shortstop from now on. At 6’2″ he could become a shortstop in the Nomar Garciaparra mold capable of playing great defense while hitting for decent power and a top notch average while providing above average speed. He has gotten off to a good start at the plate with .417 OBP in 11 at-bats, and he will continue to grow as Middlebury’s young core develops.

Tim Superko ’17 Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – Superko is easily the best pitcher in the 2017 class so far and has pitched like one of the best pitchers in the NESCAC regardless of year. 30 Ks in 21 innings isn’t shabby, and only allowing six walks is just silly. Throw in a .86 ERA and .90 WHIP (walks+hits per innings pitched) and you start to see why the Wellesley, MA product has cracked the rotation for the Jumbos. His last start against Colby-Sawyer was flat out dominant with ten strikeouts in six scoreless. Expect Superko to capture a NESCAC Pitcher of the Year award before his career ends.

East Power Rankings April 9

Two weekends of conference of play have gone by, and the East Division looks increasingly muddled. We knew entering the season that Bates and Colby would be improved, Bowdoin and Trinity had lost a lot of talent, and Tufts probably had the most potential in the division. All of that has held true, and it has made the first two weekends unpredictable. Without further ado, here are my rankings of the East so far this season.

1. Tufts (17-1, 1-0) – Putting Tufts first is an easy choice given their dominance so far this season. Yet they have only played one conference game because they were off this weekend and had their doubleheader against Bates postponed two weekends ago. Centerfielder Connor McDavitt ’15 has been outstanding at the top of the linep with a .449 OBP and seven stolen bases without being thrown out once. The Jumbos have great balance on offense and rival Amherst for the best staff in the league. The only possible wart they have shown thus far is their propensity to allow a lot of walks. Ace Kyle Slinger ’15 especially has given out a lot of free passes with 16 walks in 32 innings. Besides that Tufts doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses. Tufts has proven beyond a doubt that they are the best team on paper, but we still aren’t sure how they will look in conference play. Even if they sweep Trinity to go to 4-0 in conference it probably tells us more about Trinity than Tufts. Still, given their talent level, any finish below first in the East will be a surprise.

2. Colby (10-4, 2-1) – This has been the NESCAC’s surprise team so far this season, but people should probably wait a weekend before piling onto the bandwagon. The Colby-Bowdoin series on Friday and Saturday will show if Colby will be in it for the long haul. Right now the Mules are riding high after taking two of three from Trinity. Jason Buco ’15 made us look pretty smart for highlighting him on Friday when he hit two homers the first game of the weekend to up his season total to four. Scott Goldberg ’15 was chased in the fifth inning by the Trinity bats, but Lucas Geoghegan ’14 was superb in relief going 4.1 scoreless innings for the win as Buco’s second homer in the seventh proved to be the difference. Colby couldn’t complete the sweep when Trinity broke a 4-4 tie in the eighth of the finale, but they are still happy with the weekend’s results. Geoghegan (1.76 ERA) has rebounded to his 2012 performance after he saw limited action last season, and both Greg Ladd ’15 (2.50 ERA) and Goldberg (1.53 ERA) have taken a big step forward. All of this has helped Colby’s pitching be much better than last year. If that pitching continues then Colby will prove they aren’t a fluke.

3. Bowdoin (11-6-1, 3-3) – Wait didn’t Bates just beat Bowdoin in two out of three games this weekend! Look, Bates played great and gave Bowdoin trouble, but I am not going to overreact to one weekend of games even if they were head-to-head. Bowdoin is still rounding into form on the mound with Christian Martin ’14 making his first appearance of the year and Henry Van Zant ’15 making his third relief appearance. Bates knocked around both Erik Jacobsen ’15 and Harry Ridge ’16 in the first two games, but the two should rebound. Ridge had been spectacular so far until he allowed six runs in only three innings on Saturday prompting some to worry he will see a repeat of last season when he struggled in some starts while looking great in others. Outfielder John Lefeber ’14 has really struggled in the six league games going 2-22 at the plate. He and Aaron Rosen ’15 (.276 AVG) have yet to bust out at the plate, but have done a good job drawing walks to get on base. Expect those two to show up big in the next few weekends. The good news is that Jay Loughlin ’14 came up huge on the mound in the final game to give Bowdoin the win in the finale, and Bowdoin can reclaim control of their destiny by winning this weekend against Colby.

4. Bates (8-9, 2-2) – They showed why some thought that the Bobcats were primed for a surprise run this season this past weekend against Bowdoin. Our other player to watch heading in to the weekend, Brad Reynolds ’14, won NESCAC Pitcher of the Week after he went six innings, allowed only one (unearned) run, and struck out ten. Kevin Davis ’14 went 8-13 and had an impressive 10 RBIs over the three games. There are a lot of positives right now for Bates, but they are still below .500 on the season. Number two starter Chris Fusco ’14 got knocked around in the second game though the offense was good enough to overcome his lackluster start. Will Levangie ’15 probably solidified his status as the third starter with his performance in the final game, but that was really his first good performance of the season. Behind Davis and Griffin Tewksbury ’14 the offense has been very lackluster. Bates needs those two to continue to rake and others to step up in order for the offense to offset some of the questions about the pitching behind Reynolds.

5. Trinity (7-12, 2-4) – By far the biggest disappointment to-date in the NESCAC in head coach Bryan Adamski’s first season, the Bantams have shown flashes, but at this point it is looking more and more unlikely that they will be able to make a playoff push. The question is exactly how far they have fallen. An optimistic view says they are good enough to steal a game from Tufts and could easily win or even sweep their series against Bates. A pessimist says we are judging them off of past success and they really aren’t that good. The pessimistic view also suggests that we are overrating Colby and Bowdoin for their series victory over the Bantams. The starting pitching this weekend against Colby was very good in every game, but in the first two games the bullpen faltered. The offense was pretty much dormant until it exploded for five runs in the final inning of the second game. The rally fell short by one run, but showed Trinity is not going to go quietly into the night. Brian Wolfe ’15 and Scott Pidgeon ’15 have been carrying the offense, and they need others to step up. With three games still remaining against Tufts, Trinity is in position to force a rise through the rankings if they can put the pieces together.

West Power Rankings April 9

Editors’ Note: Check back later in the day for our East Division Power Rankings.

1. Amherst (14-4, 4-1)- The relationships between the two conferences of the NESCAC this season seems to mirror the two conferences of the NBA, just with the roles reversed. The East of NESCAC and the West of the NBA has talent and parity up and down the standings, with one team standing out (Tufts and the Spurs). And the West of NESCAC and the East of the NBA have two teams standing out at the top, with the rest of the standings looking a little iffier. The teams at the top of the West are Wesleyan and Amherst. Although Amherst (14-4, 4-1) sits below Wesleyan (14-5, 3-0) in the standings, the Lord Jeffs’ frightening combination of excellent pitching and offense places them in a position to dominate the West for the rest of the season. The Jeffs are hitting at a .323 clip, with a NESCAC-leading eight home runs. The power in the lineup is combined with a pitching staff that comes in third in the league with a 3.60 ERA, and is led by NESCAC Pitcher of the Year candidate Dylan Driscoll ’14. To return to the NBA analogy, Amherst is beginning to look something like this year’s Miami Heat, the team with by far the most talent in the conference, and is now ready to assert that talent on the league after coasting for a time.

2. Wesleyan (14-5, 3-0)- Amherst’s chief competitor for supremacy in the West is the Wesleyan Cardinals. Wesleyan is having a great season, sitting at 14-4 and 3-0 in the conference after a sweep of Middlebury. The Cardinals owe most of their success to a solid offense. The team is batting at a .323 clip, with an .813 team OPS. There is not a ton of power up and down the lineup, but Wesleyan is chock-full of solid hitters who get the job done. However, Wesleyan’s pitching has been shaky thus far, to the tune of a 5.12 ERA. Wesleyan’s fundamentals and offense have sustained them thus far, but the pitching will need to improve if they are to keep pace with Amherst in the West.

3. Hamilton (7-6, 0-2)- Although Hamilton sits at 0-2 in NESCAC, the only team that they’ve played in the league thus far is Amherst, while Williams had a three game sweep of Middlebury to bolster their record. The Continentals have had some offensive struggles so far, hitting only .274 as a team, despite an absurd .465 average from outfielder Joe Jensen ’14. Their pitching has been solid with a 4.15 ERA. With a series win this weekend against Middlebury, they could firmly plant themselves as the third best team in a somewhat weak Western side of NESCAC.

4. Williams (7-7, 4-2)- Williams is having a crazy season thus far. If you looked at just their offensive statistics, you’d believe it if you heard they were undefeated. They are leading the NESCAC in batting average, on base percentage AND slugging percentage, as well as being third in runs. However, Williams’ team ERA sits high above the rest of the league at 8.33. Williams cannot hope to improve their standing if this paradoxical existence continues. If their pitching can improve to being even average, their offense could carry them to make a run at Hamilton. But, if the pitching remains where it is, the offense will fall due to the intense pressure. It’s almost impossible to score nine runs a game against NESCAC pitching.

5. Middlebury (2-11, 0-6)- It was a general consensus in the pre-season that 2014 would be a re-building year for the Panthers. They lost three of their top five offensive players to graduation, and then the two remaining ones left the team soon before games started. This season is about the future for Middlebury, and there have been positives in that direction. First-year Jake Stalcup ’17 has posted a 2.79 ERA over 9.2 innings pitched. Young players like John Luke ’16 and Max Araya ’16 have been showing great potential in the lineup. Struggles like this can often serve to unify a young team in the years going forward. The team showed their mettle by playing Wesleyan tight in all three games of their series last weekend. Like the Ephs, Middlebury has had problems with the pitching staff, although defensive issues have fed into that. This year may be something of a lost season for Middlebury, but the positives from it should reverberate for years to come, and lead to greater successes soon.

Stock Report 4/7

Stock Up:

Third Baseman Kevin Davis ’14 (Bates) – Davis hit clean up all weekend against Bowdoin, and rarely does anyone fit the bill as perfectly as the 6’3” slugger did in the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader. Davis smacked two doubles and a home run en route to seven RBIs in a 13-7 win. On the weekend, Davis went 8-14 with 10 RBI and three doubles. Davis raised his average by 51 points and more than doubled his RBI total to 19, second in the NESCAC.

Middlebury’s Pitching – The Panthers can take away some positives from this weekend’s series at Wesleyan despite the sweep. After looking lost against Williams, it took a shutout from Jeff Blout ’14 in the first game of the Saturday doubleheader and a suicide squeeze in the bottom of the ninth in the second match up from Nick Miceli’17 for the Cardinals to finish off Middlebury. The pitching and defense improved drastically for the Panthers. While ace Eric Truss ’15 still hasn’t found his 2013 form (7 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 0 K on Friday), Middlebury held Wesleyan to five runs (four earned) in the last two games of the series and a .273 average while the Cardinals have hit .323 overall on the season. Cooper Byrne ’15 was great in the seven-inning game (CG, 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K) and Logan Mobley ’15 (6IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 0 K) worked his way out of some jams to throw a strong start in the second game. If the Panthers can get the bats going they might just have an effect on the race for the West crown.

Cooper Byrne '15 tossed his second consecutive complete game on Saturday. — Cooper Byrne ’15 tossed his second consecutive complete game on Saturday.

Startin Pitcher John Cook ’15 (Amherst) – Because the third game of the Amherst-Hamilton series was postponed last weekend, Amherst’s number three got his first chance in a league game against rival Williams and was dominant. Cook has huge shoes to fill with older brother and current assistant coach Bob Cook ’13 having departed, and after an up-and-down first couple games the 6’4” hurler put it together and earned his first win on the season. Cook’s line was 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K.

Stock Down:

Second Baseman Jack Roberts ’17 (Williams) – The lefty took the league by storm with his early performance, especially a 6-16 series against Middlebury, but flailed to an 0-12 weekend against the Lord Jeffs, including three strikeouts in the series finale, dropping his average to a still-respectable .290. Roberts is still a dependable hitter with a bright future and the ability to use all fields, but these growing pains are to be expected for any first-year, and we ought to be willing to give him a pass against a vaunted Amherst rotation.

Bowdoin – The Polar Bears get singled out here partially because we talked about Trinity in this column last week and their disastrous fall continued with a 1-2 weekend against Colby in Hartford (although the Bantams were playing as the road team). Bowdoin, meanwhile, now appears to be part of a three-team race for who will join Tufts in the NESCAC playoffs. Perhaps it’s too early to anoint the Jumbos with the divisional crown because they’ve only managed to play one league game, but they’ve looked great out-of-conference. So the second spot will fall to either Bates, Bowdoin or Colby, barring a storming comeback from Trinity, and the Polar Bears set themselves back by losing the series to their in-state rivals. Bowdoin (3-3) and Colby (2-1) still have three games with Tufts ahead, Bates (2-2) has two with the Jumbos and a series on the road against a desperate Trinity team this weekend, while the Mules still need to play both Bowdoin and Bates. CBB action now takes on a lot of meaning this season.

Williams Pitching – Sorry, Ephs fans, if it feels like I’m picking on you guys. Williams should be happy with taking a victory from Amherst, the class of 2014’s first against the Lord Jeffs, but the fact that the team’s league-worst 8.33 ERA was lowered in a weekend where Williams lost one game 16-6 is a testament to the under-performance of the staff so far. While Middlebury’s staff seems to have, at least for now, turned a corner, the Ephs regressed from last weekend to this one. Of course, opponent matters, and Williams faced potentially the most potent offensive in New England this weekend, but the Ephs won’t be able to compete for a division crown until they can hold teams to four or five runs a game. One bright spot is the performance of righty Thomas Murphy ’15. In two league starts, Murphy has tossed 14 innings and given up just one earned run. A key for Murphy is his 2.57 BB/9 rate. He relies on his defense to get outs for him, and his teammates were good enough to help Murphy get his third win of the year on Saturday.

Weekend Preview

Marquee Matchup: Amherst (12-3, 2-0) at Williams (6-5, 3-0)

The baseball rivalry lacks the cache of basketball and football, but any time these two schools meet it means a little bit more to everyone involved. Williams sits at the top of West after a sweep of Middlebury, but Amherst is clearly the favorite coming into this weekend after winning both of their games last weekend against Hamilton.

Williams is riding high after their offense showed once again its potency. The double play duo of shortstop Matt Kastner ’14 and second baseman Jack Roberts ’17 has posted insane numbers so far. Roberts is batting a nice .360/.396/.440 slashline in the cleanup spot, but his numbers pale in comparison to the outrageous .583/.659/.753 Kastner has been putting up. The rest of the lineup isn’t too shabby either with upperclassmen Marco Hernandez ’14, Thomas Stevens ’14, and Luke Pierce ’15 along with freshman outfielder Jack Cloud ’17 all posting similarly ridiculous stat lines so far. The problem the Ephs have been having is they are allowing almost as many runs as they score. Thomas Murphy ’15 (2.25 ERA) is the only pitcher with more than eight innings to have an ERA below 10.00. The team ERA is an astronomical 9.22. Williams pitching isn’t about to become nasty, but they can be better starting with cutting down on walks. 65 walks over 83 innings is way too many. The pitching staff needs to throw strikes and let a defense that has been very solid, besides Kastner with five errors, to make plays behind them.

Amherst has the luxury of trotting out three senior starters in Dylan Driscoll ’14, Fred Shepard ’14, and Quinn Saunders-Kolberg ’14 who are all owners of ERA’s below 1.06. Driscoll hasn’t allowed one run, earned or unearned, in 22 innings so far this season. The bullpen is led by two-way stud and 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (ERA of 2.45) and Keenan Szulik ’16 (ERA of 2.53). All of these guys except maybe Szulik are power pitchers who get hitters out more often than hitters get themselves out. This is clearly the best pitching that Williams will have seen all season, and it will be really interesting to see how the battle of good pitching vs. good hitting plays out. The Jeffs offense is led by seniors Alex Hero ’14 and Taiki Kasuga ’14. Hero must have the most steals for a cleanup hitter in the country with 10 bags so far, and Kasuga is getting on base at a not too shabby .444 rate. Andrew Vandini ’16 gets things started at the top of the lineup and has improved on an already stellar freshman campaign, and Odenwaelder and Connor Gunn ’16 provide the pop in the middle of the lineup.

Amherst has swept Williams the last three years in baseball so this represents the last chance for Williams senior standouts Kastner, Hernandez, and Stevens to take one from the Jeffs. I am certain that the pregame speeches by those three will be fraught with emotion for good reason. You can bet it means just as much for all the Amherst seniors to have the legacy of never losing to Williams. The Ephs are probably hoping some of these games finish with scores resembling a football game while Amherst will look to show how balanced and talented they really are. Should be a fun one this weekend.

Two To Watch

1. Brad Reynolds ’14 Pitcher (Bates)

Bates had the unfortunate draw of facing Tufts and Bowdoin in the first two weekends of conference play. They were only able to play one of their games last weekend which was a loss, and the series this weekend could define their season. If they take two of three they jumble up the East behind Tufts, but losing the series puts them in a hole that would be tough to recover from. That makes Reynolds start this weekend so important. The southpaw has been knocked around a fair amount this year giving up three home runs and sporting a 4.64 ERA, but he looked good last weekend going six innings against Tufts and only allowing two runs. His K/9 rate of 9.70 is up from last year, and his walks are way down as well. If he pitches like the ace Bates need him to be the Bobcats have a chance to shake up the East.

2. Jason Buco ’15 Outfielder (Colby)

Colby has flown under the radar so far because of their late Florida trip, but they posted a very nice record of 8-2 down south. They have their first games up north against Trinity in Hartford. Buco is the outfielder and two sport athlete who does it all for the Mules. He already has two home runs and three stolen bases to supplement his .514 OBP. He needs to have big games this weekend both at the plate and in the outfield. With the emergence of last week’s NESCAC Pitcher of the Week Scott Goldberg ’15 on the mound, the Mules are looking to surprise a Trinity team that can’t take anyone lightly this season. With Tufts playing a non-conference double header against Colby-Sawyer, the hierarchy of the East could either become very clear or extremely cloudy after this weekend.

Let’s Make Some Predictions!

Predictions are not easy. Especially when you are dealing with a Division 3 baseball league. They inherently have a cockiness to them that says ‘I know what I am talking about’, when really I don’t. I follow box scores incessantly and hear about players secondhand, but I don’t have access to in-depth scouting reports or any type of video for me to use. This is all a way of saying that if none of these predictions come true, it doesn’t mean that I suffered from lack of trying, but lack of information. But boy are predictions FUN! Here are seven I am willing to bet my honor on.

1. Tufts will finish with less than eight losses

Sure, Tufts is 14-1 right now, so you look at this and think I am not being too bold after all. However, the last time a Tufts team lost fewer than eight games was 2010 when the Jumbos finished 34-7. They still have 20 regular season games left as well as the NESCAC playoffs and then potentially the NCAA tournament. For this prediction to come true, Tufts probably needs to go 10-2 in conference play. The key for that is having deep pitching which is something Tufts has in spades. Their staff also has some great names. Kyle Slinger ’15 is ironic because… well you get it, Andrew David ’16 and Tom Ryan ’15 are trying to disprove the notion you can’t trust a man with two first names, and Tim Superko ’17 is really a Paul Konerko and Superman mashup.

2. Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton) Will Lead The League in Stolen Bases

Of all my predictions this is the one that is the safest considering Jensen led the league last year with 11 more than anybody else. So far Alex Hero ’14 has bested Jensen by one steal, 10 to nine on the season. Despite this, I remain supremely confident that Jensen will beat out Hero and all other competitors. Besides Jensen’s obvious natural ability as evidenced by his track accomplishments, Hamilton is not a very deep offense capable of huge innings. While Amherst can be content with leaving Hero on first and letting other hitters drive him in, Hamilton needs Jensen to run every time he gets on. Even if he doesn’t repeat as stolen base leader, he already has this.

Joe takes 2nd place!! Jensen is national runner up in he 400m!! Congrats Joe. All-American honors and school record!

— Hamilton XC & Track (@HamCollXC_TF) March 15, 2014

3. The Home Run Race Will Actually Be Exciting to Follow

Nobody is going to confuse this thing for the Summer of ’98 with McGwire and Sosa, but I think a couple of players will hit a good amount this season (Like at least six. You have to believe me when I say that’s a lot.) I am not ready to predict who the eventual winner will be, but Griffin Tewksbury ’14 (Bates), Mike Odenwaelder ’16 (Amherst), and Jason Buco ’15 (Colby) are the frontrunners. Of course it is so impossible to guess that I would be impressed with myself if one of those three won. I think a home run in the final weekend of the season will be the deciding one, but I have no idea where or by whom it will be hit.

4. Williams Will Lose a Game Despite Scoring at Least 15 Runs

If I was going to put a bet on which specific weekend it was going to be, I would choose the Wesleyan series next weekend. Both teams are much better at hitting than pitching especially once you get into the second or third game of a series. Williams has mashed almost everything put over the plate so far, but their opponents have done a fair amount themselves. They already lost a game to Oberlin 19-11 so 15 runs in a loss is not too far away. Their offense also makes them a dangerous team to play every game even if their weak pitching is likely to keep them from making too serious a run this season.

5. The Final Weekend of Conference Play is Going to Be Awesome

The NESCAC is saving the best for last as Amherst-Wesleyan and Tufts-Bowdoin are both the final series both teams will play. The winners of both series are likely to win their divisions, but what will be interesting is the relative position of the other teams. I fully expect these four to occupy the top four spots going into the weekend, but it is possible one of them gets swept opening the door for another team to sneak into the playoffs. Besides those implications, the games should just be a lot of fun to watch in weather that has hopefully warmed up to reasonably temperatures by then.

6. Team Wins and Team Strikeouts Will Be the Most Correlated Statistics

The ability to get strikeouts isn’t crucial for pitching success, but in the NESCAC if you strike out a lot of people you greatly improve your chances of preventing wins because not too many players will hurt you with the longball. Teams that strikeout a lot of their opponents have a huge advantage. A peak at the standings shows that far and away the three top teams in strikeouts are Wesleyan, Amherst, and Tufts. While you would expect ERA or OBP to have the most correlation to wins, strikeouts denote dominance and the team that gets more of them will usually win in this conference.

7. A Baseball Game Will Be Played in Maine This Season

It hasn’t happened yet so who is to say it will happen at all? Just think about that a little.

Middlebury Struggles to a 2-8 Record in Tucson; Swept by Williams

Although the Panthers played their first ten games in sunny Tucson, their results seem more appropriate for dreary, frigid Middlebury. The Panthers finished the trip at 2-8, closing with an abysmal sweep at the hands of William, highlighted by scores of 18-5 and 20-2 in favor of the Ephs.

So here we stand, at the first checkpoint of the season, and suffice to say it has not been an auspicious start for Middlebury. To rationalize this rough start, we must go back to the questions that loomed largest entering the season; how would the team react to the quitting of Hunter Merryman and Dylan Sinnickson, and the additional losses of the graduating seniors like Mike Morris, Tom Driscoll and Tom Rafferty.

Because almost all of the personnel losses that the Panthers suffered were established position players, it was clear that younger, unproven players would have to step up, and that the pitching and defense would have to somewhat carry a probably struggling offense. On the first count, there has been some level of success. First-year Ryan Rizzo, Sinnickson’s replacement in CF, who has speed comparable to the basketball star, had been playing very well, stealing bases five bases in one game. However, a knee injury suffered on Friday against Williams hindered his speed and confidence at the plate in the final two games of the weekend. If the injury works itself out, the Panthers could have a stud CF on their hands for the next four seasons, but if the pain lingers then a major offensive weapon will be damaged for Middlebury. Offensively, there have been several other positives. Sophomore Johnny Luke has stepped in to claim the third spot in the lineup, hitting .375 with 10 RBI already and one long ball. Luke’s classmate Max Araya and first-year Jason Lock have also stepped up offensively, hitting .395 and .317. And obviously, senior captain Alex Kelly has been playing a starring role, batting .422 from the top two slots in the lineup.

The problems that the Panther have had have been mostly related to atrocious defense. Although Rizzo and Kelly have been solid in the outfield, the other corner outfield spot has been a revolving door, with first-year Cullen Coleman and sophomore converted-infielder Garret Werner both going around and out after some poor defense. Werner continues to bounce between the infield and outfield. His speed and strong (though often inaccurate) arm make him a good candidate for right field. Meanwhile, first-years Lukas Marble and Mike Yang have played well in limited time, and may be next in line for a shot at regular playing time. Lock, too, is a candidate for some outfield time, though more likely is that he remains the every day DH, as he was on Saturday during the team’s doubleheader. Araya played a solid game in right field, but his defense is needed far more at catcher and second base.

The infield defense, however, is where the real problems lie. Johnny Luke, despite his powerful bat, had immense problems throwing the ball from third to fist, as did junior Danny Andrada and first-year Mason Hinckley from short. The coaching staff decided to make a statement on Wednesday by tossing starting pitcher Matt Leach in to second base mid-game, and then starting the junior for all three games against Williams at either second or short. Leach played respectively, but it is unclear whether Bob Smith intends to keep the lanky high school shortstop in the lineup or end the experiment. Araya plays an above-average second base, but is much more valuable at catcher, where first-year Vermont native Charlie Boardman has not yet made the offensive leap, and anytime you can get a wonderful defensive catcher who can also rake you ought to take advantage of that situation. In order to get him out of the left side of the infield, Luke moved over to first base, with Lock manning DH and sophomore Joe MacDonald moving to third. This could be a consistent lineup, but if there’s one thing we know about this Panthers team, it’s that positional consistency is not one of their strong points.

The pitching has also been pretty bad, quite frankly. Granted, the inconsistent defense hasn’t helped with the pitchers’ confidence, but it’s not like there have been zero earned runs given up either. The only pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 is sophomore Cooper Byrne, who padded his stats in a blowout of Cal Tech, who has won exactly one game in the last ten years. The rest of the pitching, considered to be a strength in the preseason, has been disappointing, especially junior captain and ace starter Eric Truss, who carried a 19.44 ERA back to Vermont.

Middlebury was expected to struggle offensively. Replacing the production of Sinnickson, Merryman and the departing seniors was not going to be easy, and indeed at this point looks impossible this season. But the offense has been okay, with several key cogs stepping up. The pitching, a facet of the game that is independent of the departed players, and defense, an almost primarily mental aspect of the game, have been the problems. If there’s one positive to hold to at this stage it is the Panthers’ youth, but at some point that can not be used as an excuse any longer. The current players will need to improve quickly if they hope to win some games and solidify spots for next year. If the Panthers can live up to their pitching potential and play even adequate defense, their offensive momentum could breath life into this season. If they can’t, then this Arizona trip will not be viewed as a slump, but the norm for the rest of the season.

Stock Report

Every Monday we will recap the weekend’s action by handing out our analysis in the form of a stock report. With the first weekend of action in the books, The ‘CAC regular season is officially underway.

Stock Up

1. Mother Nature- Nobody else had a bigger impact on this weekend’s games. Almost every weekend game was affected somehow with the rain precipitating (pun fully intended) starting times being changed and games shortened, though luckily only three games had to be postponed. Amherst and Hamilton moved the site of their series a good five hour drive south to Yaphank, New York on Long Island. They were unable to play the final game of their three game series, but a tip of the cap to the teams and athletic departments for finding an inventive way to play the other two games. Tufts and Bates only fit in the first game of their series which was moved from Bates to Tufts because of the weather causing Bates’ ‘home opener’ to become a bit of a misnomer. Bowdoin and Trinity managed to fit all three games in, but the final one was shortened to eight innings because of the rain. A glance at the forecast looks promising as this week will be filled with sun and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The rain this weekend melted a lot of the snow and ice left on fields so by next weekend hopefully every home NESCAC field is ready to go.

2. Amherst- I was expecting Hamilton to steal at least one of their games this weekend (and it’s possible they would have if the third game had been played), but Amherst looked like a very strong team from top to bottom in the two games. Hamilton’s best chance to win was probably the first game with their ace Jjay Lane ’15 on the hill, and they managed to strike in the first against Amherst’s Fred Shepard ’14. After that the lefty Amherst native dominated going seven innings and striking out eight without allowing another run. Shepard has already thrown a no-hitter and is the owner of a not too shabby 0.93 ERA through three starts. The offense got to Lane for two runs in the first inning and added another in the sixth for a final score of 3-1. The second game was not nearly as competitive with Amherst tagging Hamilton’s Cole Dreyfuss ’16 for six runs in the second inning. Andrew Vandini ’16 and Mike Odenwaelder ’16 led the way with three hits each, Dylan Driscoll ’14 went seven scoreless striking out nine, and Amherst’s depth showed a little when leftfielder and number eight hitter Anthony Spina ’17 hit a solo shot in the third. Amherst has the big rivalry weekend coming up with Williams, and they should be confident knowing they are handing the ball to both Shepard and Driscoll again next weekend.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin)- Ridge had stretches when he threw the ball very well last year as a freshman, but he has improved his consistency leaps and bounds through four starts. He doesn’t overpower you with his raw stuff with only 14 strikeouts so far, but Ridge does a great job forcing the issue with hitters, keeping them off balance, and preventing anything from being hit too hard. This weekend he shut down Trinity’s offense for six innings allowing only two hits and no runs as Bowdoin cruised in the first game of their doubleheader. Ridge’s performance has been especially critical because Bowdoin has had their three top starters from last season barely throw in 2014. Oliver Van Zant ’13 graduated, Christian Martin ’14 has yet to throw a pitch, and Henry Van Zant ’15 saw his first action this weekend in relief. His and Erik Jacobsen’s ’15 performance has helped Bowdoin off to a very good start despite all those absences.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury- We knew it was going to be tough sledding for Middlebury because of what they lost from their senior class and then the decision of Hunter Merryman ’15 and Dylan Sinnickson ’15 to not play this season in order to focus on basketball. Still, the Panthers have looked helpless at times so far including this weekend when Williams swept them with ease. Williams has a good offense, but they should not be putting up 18 and 20 runs against NESCAC teams. Middlebury is an extremely young team with only two seniors on the roster, and you have to feel bad but also be impressed with Alex Kelly’s ’14 play so far. The outfielder is hitting for a .422 average at the top of the lineup while also playing great defense in the outfield. Middlebury finished up their Arizona trip at 2-8 and will have to face a loaded Wesleyan team next weekend in Connecticut. It is likely to be a long season for the Panthers, but there are still plenty of positives able to be drawn from it.

2. Scott Huley ’15 Outfielder (Trinity)- A lot was expected out of Huley entering the season as Trinity had to replace multiple starters from last years team, and he has not been up to the task so far. He hasn’t been terrible with a .382 on-base percentage, but his .356 slugging percentage underlies how Trinity has been all season. Since hitting two doubles in Trinity’s second game against Denison, Huley has had only two extra base hits. Trinity as a team has been getting on base at a below average rate of .351, but their slugging percentage of .326 overall is abysmal. Nobody expected Huley to come out and show off explosive power given his frame, but his inability to hit doubles this year means he can’t be the middle of the lineup presence we expected him to be. Also, after pitching 18 innings with a respectable ERA, he is yet to take the mound this season despite Trinity having issues with their pitching. Why Manager Bryan Adamski hasn’t used him is unclear, and Huley’s value has suffered. He is still a player with a lot of talent, but little time to turn it around, just like Trinity as a whole.

3. Jeff Blout ’14 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan)- Overshadowed by Wesleyan’s overall success thus far has been the disastrous pitching of Blout. His outing this weekend against Mitchell was his best of the season, but it still was far from dominant. While Blout only allowed one run in five innings, he had to pitch around four walks. On the season he has only 12 strikeouts to 11 walks which is an unacceptable ratio. Blout had a top four ERA in the NESCAC last season, and his 7.13 ERA this year is more than three times higher than his 2.06 ERA from 2013. The Wesleyan offense has been scary to pitch against for opposing teams, but the Cardinals are not going to give Amherst a serious challenge for the division crown if their pitching doesn’t pull it together. Blout has to find his stuff again because Wesleyan has nobody else who can replace him. Peter Rantz ’16 and Nick Cooney ’15 have been the most consistent pitchers, but neither of them are aces. Blout is the key for Wesleyan.

Weekend Preview

The first weekend of NESCAC conference action is set to begin. Four series will count towards the conference standings. The importance of every series in a NESCAC season can not be overstated. It is nearly impossible to make the four-team postseason with more than four losses. Last season, East representatives Tufts and Bowdoin each had four losses while Amherst and Wesleyan had three each. So if a team gets swept this weekend, it essentially have to win out the rest of its NESCAC schedule in order to make the playoffs. Of course, many of these games might not even get played. Conditions have been frigid across the northeast, and rain is in the forecast for this weekend. Nevertheless, hoping that these teams do get there games in, here is a preview of the weekend.

Marquee Matchup: Bowdoin (8-3-1) at Trinity (4-8)

The East Division was a three way race last year that ended with Bowdoin and Trinity at the top. But both squads face some tough competition this year if they hope to return to the postseason. Early on this season Tufts has looked like the best team in the NESCAC, and they are, in my opinion, the frontrunner for the East Division crown. Additionally, Bates and Colby should be better than last year, so there are not any easy wins to come by in the division. All of that makes this opening series all the more important for both teams.

Of the two teams, Bowdoin comes in playing much better baseball. The key has been the emergence of young players including a couple who are hitting everything in sight. Chad Martin ’16 didn’t record a single at-bat last season, but he won the first Player of the Week Award. His slugging percentage of .717 is absurd for anybody, and the fact that it is coming after doing nothing last year is even more impressive. Some regression should be expected especially given Martin’s 9-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He should expect to see a lot of curveballs and other offspeed pitches early in the count from hurlers hoping that he swings away. Peter Cimini has also exploded onto the scene this spring and will hope to continue that into NESCAC play. Harry Ridge ’16 has become the team’s ace in the early going with a .98 ERA in 18.1 innings over three starts. The two top projected starters, Henry Van Zant ’15 and Christian Martin ’14, have yet to pitch this season. Their status is unclear entering this weekend, but the fact Bowdoin has done so well without them is impressive.

On the other side of things is a Trinity team that has looked the worst a Bantams squad has been in recent memory. The slugging lineup that we have come to expect has been performing far from peak level with only one home run through twelve games. Trinity has scored only 52 runs through 12 games, and 27 of those came in two games. Williams has scored 16 more runs in 6 less games so far this season. Juniors Daniel Pidgeon and Brian Wolfe have been leading the way for Trinity offensively, but Trinity just isn’t getting big extra-base hits or stringing a lot of hits together at once right now. The pitching has been solid for Trinity, but hasn’t been able to make up for the offense. Lots of different pitchers are seeing time for Trinity right now so while we expect to see Peter Burrows ’14 and Ryan Carr ’14, manager Bryan Adamski has a lot of arms to choose from. The outcome of this season will tell us whether Trinity is truly having a down year. If Bowdoin wins the series it is a testament to the program’s depth and ability to plug in players without missing a beat.

Three To Watch

1. Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton)- The junior outfielder has been a menace so far this season. Everybody knew that he could fly on the basepaths, and he already has eight stolen bases for the year, but it’s what he has been doing with the bat that is shocking. His OBP stands at .586 in an albeit small sample size of 25 at-bats (stats for Hamilton’s last four games are not available). Many of these hits are on grounders to the infielders that Jensen beats out with his speed. With Jensen at the top, the Continentals are off to a nice start so far at 7-4.

2. Jack Roberts ’17 (Williams)- Williams has been involved in a bunch of high scoring games so far this season. The story is the same as last year as an above-average offense can’t offset a struggling pitching staff. Roberts has been a key part of the Ephs lineup batting .444. The lefty batting freshman has shown he has power with one home run already. It isn’t likely, but if the pitching gets it figured out Williams could surprise teams. Williams and Middlebury also have the luxury of playing in sunny Arizona while the rest of the league languishes up north.

3. Wade Hauser ’15 (Tufts)- The Tufts offense is loaded from top to bottom, but Hauser still stands out. His nine extra-base hits is tied for tops in the league. An area of concern is that he already has eight errors on the season. While it isn’t likely, he could move to the outfield or even DH if he continues at this rate. Tufts has a potentially tricky weekend against Bates if the games are able to be played up in Lewiston.