Colby Morris

Middlebury Basketball 2019 Season Preview

Middlebury College Panthers

2017-2018 Record: 21-7 (7-3 NESCAC), Lost in NESCAC Quarterfinals, Lost in NCAA Sweet 16

2018-2019 Projected Record: 18-6 Regular Season (7-3 NESCAC), Lose in NESCAC Semifinals, Lose in NCAA Sweet 16

Key Losses:

G Matt Daly ’18 (15.8 PPG, 8.4 REB/G, 8.5 AST/G)

The Panthers will miss Daly and his hustle this season.

Anybody who knows Middlebury basketball knows how important Jack Daly was the to program. When he wasn’t making highlight reel passes to Matt St. Amour or making off and-1 layups look easy, he was leading this team on the court and running the floor even when he didn’t have the ball. He was a classic DIII player—he made the shots he needed to, had great ball handling skills and fundamentals, but didn’t do anything that jumped off the page other than dish out dimes. He didn’t shoot well from the perimeter, shooting just 23.5% from deep, and those replacing him, namely Joey Leighton, should see a big jump in production.

F/C Nick Tarentino ’18 (7.2 PPG, 6.8 REB/G)

Tarentino was one of three big men that occupied the ‘5’ spot on the court for Middlebury. The Panthers retain just one of those three, Eric McCord, who should see a big increase in minutes per game. These three big men also split time relatively evenly, but Tarentino started each game. His production was quieter than McCords at times, but he added great defensive help and second chance baskets around the rim.

F Adisa Majors ’18 (7.6 PPG, 5.0 REB/G)

Majors was the third part of the group of big men and was the best shooter of the group. He shot well from around the elbows and was ice cold on the court. He was never phased by pressure and was a key veteran presence that will be missed with this young Panther team.

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Jack Farrell ‘21 (8.3 PPG, 3.0 REB/G, 1.6 AST/G, 36.4% 3-PT)

In his first year, Farrell took over a big role, replacing Jake Brown ’17. He performed well though and if you didn’t know, you wouldn’t have guessed he was a freshman. He plays a clean game and handles the ball well and should see a huge jump in assists this season after the departure of Daly ’18. He will bring the ball up court for the Panthers this season and should shoot in a similar way that Daly did, mostly scrapping to get to the rim and dishing it out to the better outside shooters—although he is more capable from deep than Daly was.

G: Griffin Kornaker ‘21 (3.3 PPG, 1.0 REB/G, 1.7 A/G, 43.4% FG)

This role will be split between Joey Leighton ’20 and Kornaker, although I see Kornaker starting most games due to his defensive ability. The two play very different styles of basketball and Kornaker isn’t much of a shooter. He, like Farrell should pass it out often on offense but is quick and competent from mid-range. I would imagine he and Farrell will lead the team in assists by a wide margin.

G: Hilal Dahleh ‘19 (7.9 PPG, 2.3 REB/G, 1.3 A/G, 42.6% 3-PT)

Daleh, a senior captain, is due for a breakout year. He was injured throughout his entire sophomore season and came back strong last year as a starter and put up solid numbers. Now, as a senior, after a healthy season behind him, he should be one of the elite shooters in the league from both mid-range and from beyond the arc. He is a smaller ‘3’ player at only 6’3” but moves well laterally and should be able to keep up on defense without issue. His 3-point efficiency was elite last year at over 40% and could only improve with more time on the court this season.

F: Matt Folger ’20 (13.7 PPG, 6.9 REB/G, 32.9% 3-PT)

Folger is the most important player on this Middlebury team. This is very much a win-by-committee roster that the Panthers have this season in that many players will shoot, pass, and rebound, not just the starting five like in the past few years. Folger, however, is their X-Factor. He is the most athletic player on the court, can jump well, dominate the rim, offensively and defensively, and can shoot on top of that. He could easily average over 18 PPG and push for a double-double in each contest. Fear him, NESCAC opponents.

C: Eric McCord ’19 (8.5 PPG PPG, 6.8 REB/G, 18.7 MIN/G)

McCord, like Daleh, should see a big uptick in his nightly averages this season. McCord has always performed well when on the court, threatening for a double-double in games where he plays far less than 20 minutes. One of the major keys for him this season is durability and discipline, as he will need to be on the floor more than in years past and often finds himself in injury and foul trouble. He is extremely physical on the court and could really dominate some of the other NESCAC big men with his 6’7” 250 lb frame.

Everything Else

Middlebury has a new era of guards who are going to start making their mark on the program in 2019. This is the first time since the 2014-2015 season that one of the big three (Matt St. Amour, Jake Brown, and Jack Daly) won’t be on the floor, and the Panthers have a lot of ground to make up here. Luckily for them they have an already experienced crop of sophomores in Jack Farrell, Griffin Kornaker, and Max Bosco who are all fully capable of running the floor. Those three, however, are not as good of shooters as some of the other guards in the league, and as a result, the Panthers are going to lean heavily on Joey Leighton for their sharp-shooting needs. Leighton was often brought in off the bench late in close games to drain threes and already started off hot, going 5-9 from deep in Midd’s opener against Vermont Tech. I’d guess that his efficiency from beyond the arc will spike to above 40% this year as he gets more consistent minutes in his junior season.

Folger and the Panthers are an athletic group.

Losing both Tarentino and Majors will really hurt the Panthers, not as much because of their playing ability which McCord could easily replace, but because of the depth and experience that each offered. McCord can’t handle the big man spot all by himself and will need a combination of youngsters to step up to cover the minutes when he is not on the court. Alex Sobel ’22 and Ryan Cahill ’21 look like the likely candidates to occupy the missing minutes as McCord probably won’t exceed 25 minutes on the court in any given night. McCord has exceeded 25 minutes on the court in just seven games in his 82 game career, reaching 30 minutes just once. His average over the past two seasons is just under 19 minutes per game, leaving a likely average of about 12-16 minutes per game this year that Cahill and Sobel will have to cover. Sobel and Cahill are both listed at 6’7” 210 lbs which suggests that they lack the physicality of McCord, fitting the mold of a player more like Tarentino ’18. Cahill played in just 11 games as a freshman and didn’t exactly shoot efficiently (18.8% FG). In order for Midd to compete for all 40 minutes in their difficult games, these two young big men will need to step up and improve around the rim and haul in boards while McCord isn’t on the floor.

Despite the graduation of Daly, Middlebury should still do what they always do—win basketball games. Coach Jeff Brown knows the NESCAC as well as any coach and he knows how to bring his team to the NCAA promise land, and this year should be no different for the #17 ranked Panthers according to D3 Hoops. It might take the Panthers a little while to find their groove, but they have enough veteran leadership and spark from deep into their bench that they should outlast most NESCAC opponents. Other than Folger, they don’t quite have the star power that they usually do, but expect them to have good fundamentals on the court and make few mistakes. They should have better outside shooting that last season and should play defense just as well. If they young guards can pass anywhere near as well as Daly, they’ll be tough to defend as they have shooters in each different part of the floor on offense. I don’t think they’ll have such an easy time in NESCAC regular season play as they have the past two seasons (15-5 from 2017-2018), but they could easily make a long run in the playoffs.

Top of the Podium: Week 8 Stock Report

Week 8 Stock Report

Stock Up

Dynastic Control: The Bantams have won again and as their parents pointed out after we predicted them to be 6-3 in our season preview article, they really don’t lose often. Not only are they on the up and up, getting better year to year relative to the rest of the NESCAC competition, but even their holes, which we thought would be at QB this year, are ridiculously easily filled. They have had not one but two elite QBs under center this year in Jordan Vazzano and Seamus Lambert and clearly will have the reigns on the NESCAC for the near future. The other contenders of Amherst and Tufts were no match in their head to head with Trinity and Williams, who kind of seems to own the Bantams, cannot reach any level of consistency to bring the title home to Williamstown.

Ellie Greenberg after scoring the winner in the NESCAC championship.

Predictive Power: I am giving credit where credit is due today. Matt Karpowicz hit the nail on the head with his game preview of Amherst at Trinity last weekend. Max Chipouras blitzed the Amherst defense and had a career game, nearly capping off his incredible run at Trinity with a clutch 203 yard, two TD performance. He averaged a nasty 8.5 yards per carry and showed that the league’s best D isn’t so unstoppable. Or maybe the Bantams are just that good. Either way, we got one right, we finally got one. Actually, we got two. Ryan Moralejo deserves a shoutout too for his prediction in the women’s soccer NESCAC championship game, calling the Midd over Williams upset, that, quite frankly, nobody saw coming. I will say I have no idea how he ever thought that the score would be 2-1 with each team having such a stellar back line, but I’ll cut him some slack. Roll Pants.

Stock Down

Eph Leadership: This week’s 21-14 loss to Wesleyan is a tough one to swallow for the Williams team as they were riding in off a recovery win against Hamilton into their senior day and final home game of the season. They played against a Cardinal team that has looked unprepared all season and couldn’t get anything done once Bobby Maimaron left the game with an injury. They got destroyed by Middlebury, who has looked different week to week, only after TJ Rothmann exited the contest. The change of play after losing their leaders is what separates this still talented team from a program like Trinity. For the Bantams, when one guy goes down another takes his place, for Williams those spaces continue to be vacant.

Jackson Bischoping has promise, but he allowed two fatal turnovers against Wesleyan.

Mule Muster: I titled last weekend’s preview article “Trap City,” and it turned out that we were right, although not regarding the game that I imagined. Wesleyan beat Williams 21-14 and Bowdoin got their first win by knocking off Bates 31-14, but I thought Colby would at least give Tufts a slight run for their money coming off two good weekends of football. I couldn’t have been more wrong about that one. The Colby team put up a real dud to say the least, falling 48-0, managing just 124 yards of total offense. Their defense was useless in this game as the Mules offense only turned the ball over one time! that means that the defense was responsible for each of the five rushing and two passing TDs allowed.

Two Teams Left: Week 7 Stock Report

Stock Up:

NESCAC Championship Game: With the incoming game this weekend featuring Amherst and Trinity, we have just about as close to a league championship game that we will ever get. While the Bantams do have one loss, incurred at the hands of the streaky Williams team, with a win over the Mammoths, they would jump up into first place and would have control of their own fate, while Amherst would remain undefeated with a win and would clinch the NESCAC championship.

Coach Cosgrove and the Mules: The Colby Mules just keep doing it. They knocked off Bates easily this past weekend, reaching two wins and capturing an early lead in the CBB race. Freshman QB Matt Hersch has had flashes of potential throughout the season, but RB Jake Schwern really had himself a day this past weekend. He rushed for an absurd 226 yards and three touchdowns, accounting for all of the Colby points and nearly all of their yards. The secondary also shut the Bobcats passing game down stone cold and denied any attempt to make an impact from their talented QB who had his stock rated upwards last week. Costa threw for just eight yards before being lifted from the contest and Colby racked up over 100 more offensive yards than their opponent. Patrick Yale and the secondary are going to put up their best fight against the Jumbos this weekend, although I’m not going so far as to say they will win in Medford. They might keep it close, but their eye should really be on week nine’s game against Bowdoin to capture the CBB crown.

Ben Weisel ’21 and the rest of the Mules have to by hyped by their two consecutive wins. One more and its a streak.

The Power of the Undefeated: Amherst football is alone at the top and the favorite to win the crown, regardless of Trinity’s convincing win over Middlebury. Their defense is nearly unstoppable and their 13 points allowed this past weekend are a season high if you can believe that. Andrew Sommer and Andrew Yamin are a terrifying duo for any offense to stare down, and whichever QB Trinity uses this weekend will be in for a rude welcoming into their first game against the Mammoths.

Sock Down:

Panther Pride: There isn’t a whole lot of good to say here, Midd fans. Nobody could get any offense going. QB Will Jernigan may have a thumb injury, the offense couldn’t get the ball to their playmaker Conrado Banky who didn’t have a catch for the first time basically ever, and nobody averaged more than 2.5 yards per carry on the ground. The Midd team had about half of the snaps on offense that they usually do and didn’t even make it to 100 total yards of offense compared to over 500 from Trinity. While they were an underdog in this game, it’s safe to say that they didn’t come close to covering the spread on this 48 point loss.

For the love of god, please, somebody, get the ball to Conrad Banky.

The Race for the Crown: Although we have an awesome matchup between Trinity and Amherst on the way this weekend, the other games in the conference mean little else other than for pride. After Tufts and Middlebury fell to Amherst and Trinity, respectively, it basically narrowed the race to two teams. Williams gave us all hope for a multiple horse race in the beginning of the year when they knocked off the Bantams, but injuries and inconsistent play have dragged them down throughout the season in their losses to Midd and Tufts—both upsets. Tufts has over performed but just didn’t quite have the depth on defense to hold off Amherst. It would be amazing if the NESCAC had playoffs like a normal conference to eliminate the drastic effect of one outlier performance, but I digress.

Changes to Tradition: Week 6 Stock Report

Stock Report 10/22/17

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Tufts’ Title Chances

Obviously this isn’t a slight to Amherst, they are still the favorite and will be at the top of tomorrow’s power rankings, but Tufts is making serious moves. After handing Williams their second consecutive loss by a score of 28-21, Tufts now sits at 5-1 and is just one game back from first place. Since they play Amherst this weekend, they control their own destiny if they win out. Now, I still don’t think that the Jumbos would be the favorite this weekend as the game is in Mammoth territory, but Ryan McDonald and the strong Tufts receivers are looking ready to take us all to upset central this weekend.

Tufts is playing as a team like Chance Brady ’17 did as an individual.

Colby’s CBB Chances

Although Hamilton has been consistently inconsistent, they are far more talented than some of the other Maine teams, and Colby’s win last weekend (23-21) was a turning point in their program history. This was their first win over a non-Maine team since October 22nd, 2016, and shows that perhaps Coach Jack Cosgrove has something in the works for this team. Matt Hersch ’22 threw for nearly 300 yards and connected with ten different receivers to lead them to a win against the Continentals who were fresh off of a win against Wesleyan, who beat Midd, who beat Williams. Does that mean Colby beat all those teams by the transitive property? Not quite, but it was a big win, and the first one of the Cosgrove era.

Bates QB Brendan Costa ‘21

I had never seen Costa play in person until last weekend, and after looking at the box scores in his career, I had assumed he was just a run first player. I thought that last year, his stats were the product of the system Bates ran, and although they tried to switch to more of a pass first system this year, I thought their lack of pass success was due to Costa’s inability to throw. Although he hasn’t thrown for over 177 yards, reaching that season high this weekend, his arm is big and once he gets more on the same page with his receivers Bates could have a dangerous offense. He had several impressive touchdown passes, leading his receivers well and throwing an incomplete downfield bomb showing his arm strength. He also clearly has speed and is super shifty, so once the Bobcat blocking improves, they could be dangerous.

Stock Down

Wesleyan’s…everything

The Cardinals have lost a lot of credibility in recent weeks.

It’s been all downhill for Wesleyan since their week one win against Middlebury. They are 2-3 for the last five weeks and have only beaten teams from Maine. The previously beastly Mark Piccirillo has looked not only human but even weak at some points, throwing for just 104 yards against Amherst last weekend. Yes, Amherst has the best defense in the NESCAC (yes, I said it, Amherst parents) but he really dropped the ball, ensuring their elimination. He didn’t account for a touchdown and neither did anybody else on the Cardinals, and the entire team rushed for just 3 yards. Wait, no, they rushed for -3 yards. Yikes.

Williams’ Grit

I’d like to exclude TJ Rothmann from this stock down on the disappointment of how Williams has played in recent weeks. They have looked young, undisciplined, and overmatched against teams they are simply more talented than. Reports said Rothmann was only questionable last week rather than designated as out after suffering a broken jaw…so he is definitely not soft. Bobby Maimaron threw for just 107 against Tufts and no receivers tallied up over 44 yards. Yes, Maimaron ran for 135 yards on the ground, but that’s the point—they have the talent to win every game they play, but unless they figure it out and put a whole game together, especially on defense in the secondary with their linebackers, they will be just a team with potential.

Everybody Likes a Spoiler: Week 5 Stock Report

Stock Report 10/15/17

Just when we get over the halfway point of the season and think we know what’s going on, something changes. Middlebury came out of nowhere to upset one of the league favorites in Williams, and Hamilton erupted for the most dominant offensive performance of 2018. While we still got most of the picks right (4/5), the next few weeks will be all the more unpredictable with higher stakes.

Stock Up

Hamilton’s Legitimacy

Hamilton was one of my picks to move up to the top half of the league this year given their aggressive number of returning players. With such a veteran presence on the playing field, they should be able to beat some younger teams (Bowdoin, Bates, and maybe Midd and Williams) due to lack of mistakes and experience. They should at least put up a fight against some of the tougher teams in the league. While they were dominated by Tufts, Amherst, and Trinity, those are three of the four most talented teams in the league who also have heavy veteran presences. They had four passing and four rushing TDs last weekend against a Bowdoin team that nearly knocked off an inconsistent but talented Middlebury team. They also beat one of the league favorites in Wesleyan, and as a result, while they are clearly not on par talent wise with some teams, I wouldn’t be shocked if they finished above .500.

Middlebury’s Game Management

Peter Scibilia is showing us that he is a NESCAC back to be reckoned with following his 140+ yard performance against Williams.

The first four weeks against Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Colby, and Amherst, the Middlebury Panthers looked rushed, unorganized, and uncertain about their offensive identity. Their talented skill players, depth at both WR and TE, and capable rushers, were not utilized the way anybody envisioned they would be. An injury to senior captain and starting QB Jack Meservy opened the door for Will Jernigan to manage the entire game against Williams. While Meservy flashed talent in the pocket last year and at times this year, their system using both Meservy and Jernigan made it so neither QB could get any kind of rhythm. They out-talented Colby and Bowdoin, but were beat by comparably talented and better managed Amherst and Wesleyan teams. They couldn’t have looked more different against Williams in their 21-10 victory. Jernigan may not have had a sexy passing day in his starting debut, throwing for just 162 yards, but his use of the RPO and QB designed runs had the Eph defense reeling. The Panthers rushed for 278 yards and ate up the clock. They don’t really have a shot at a title anymore, but they could be some scary spoilers and bring the heat in trap games against Trinity and Tufts. Also a not so talked about aspect of the game–their blocking was phenomenal.

The Way Things Should Be

I said that Max Chipouras was the Trinity X-Factor in their game against Tufts. I stand by that pick, and also questioned whether he lost a step after some recent duds of performances. Well, if there’s anything I’ve learned from covering NESCAC football for my four years of college, it’s that Chipouras is the best back in the league and that he should dominate. Thankfully, after his game against Tufts, everything makes sense again. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the ground and accumulated 164 yards and a TD, showing us once again exactly what he’s made of.

Stock Down

Williams Rush Defense

Apparently Rothmann broke his jaw on Saturday, and if so, can the Eph defense control the run without him?

After writing that Amherst, Trinity, and Tufts had the best run defenses in the league, Karp gave me a hard time about how his boys in Williamstown deserves some more recognition. He had a good point that some of those other teams hadn’t faced many competent rushers and Williams did limit Chipouras to less than 4 yards per carry, but his claims didn’t hold up against the Panthers. Williams lost their biggest defensive playmaker, TJ Rothmann, to a jaw injury in the first quarter, leaving them without a leader on the field and without any confidence against a young Middlebury rushing attack. Middlebury kept their pace of play quick, and the Williams linebackers and defensive lines got lit up all afternoon, losing control of the game. If Rothmann isn’t good to go next weekend against Tufts, Ryan McDonald could have a big game running a similar style offense to Will Jernigan.

Maine Football

Nate Richam had us all excited after his week two performance against Middlebury, but where has he (and Bowdoin’s O Line) been since then?

I guess this one isn’t as much of a stock down as it is a ‘stock not up,’ since Maine football hasn’t really been too hot lately. Bowdoin gave us all some hope earlier this year when Nate Richam dominated Middlebury on the ground, while Griff Stalcup and Austin McCrum have showed both talent and chemistry with their unique offensive scheme. Colby has made some changes by starting first year QB Matt Hersch and coach Jack Cosgrove has attempted to make his mark on the NESCAC, failing thus far to turn around the Mules program. Bates, like Colby, had high hopes with their new head coach, Malik Hall, but have struggled to transition to the ‘air raid’ offense that was promised, likely due to the lack of a talented passing QB. Colby allowed 35 points with no turnovers on offense, Bowdoin allowed eight touchdowns (although they did turn the ball over 5 times), and Bates allowed 35 points also without turning the ball over on offense. While we don’t expect these teams to have great offensive performances against tough defenses, they will never have a chance if they can’t limit even the not-so-scary offensive attacks that the NESCAC has to offer (Amherst and Hamilton this week). Maybe nobody should win the CBB this year as all the Maine teams are 0-5 and at this point, nobody wants a participation trophy, right?

Even until they aren’t: Game of the Week 10/13

Week 5 Game of the Week — Tufts @ Trinity, 1:30 PM Saturday, October 13th

Overview:

Trinity stays at home this week to try to keep their championship aspirations alive. After losing to Williams in week three, they are one loss away from irrelevance. They stayed alive last weekend, easily blowing through Hamilton (44-7), who beat Wesleyan in the week prior. While the Jumbos also blew through Hamilton in week one (29-2), their game against Wesleyan has been their toughest contest of 2018. Tufts was also played tightly by Bates for three quarters in week three before pulling away for a 47-14 victory. Trinity has looked human and beatable in recent contests, but they have the talent to give undefeated Tufts a run for its money and will not go down easily in their own house with their season on the line.

Key for Trinity: Rush Defense

While the Bantam offense faltered against the Ephs in their loss, their defense was aces all day. They held each of the Eph rushers to under 3.4 yards per carry, which is impressive considering QB Bobby Maimaron is averaging almost a yard per carry more in his other three games and has rushed for six TDs on the season too. If Trinity can keep QB Ryan McDonald and RBs Mike Pedrini and Dom Borelli out of the end zone on the ground it could be a slow day for the Jumbo offense.

Key for Tufts: Secondary and Linebackers

Greg Holt should be ready to go this weekend.

Against Wesleyan, the Tufts defense had seven tackles for losses and 5.5 of those came from either the secondary or the linebackers. In order to stop Trinity’s new signal caller Jordan Vazzano, they will need to step up their pass defense as they have been dominant against the run game. They allow 58.3 yards per game on the ground compared to 173 yards per game in the air. Their defensive playmakers DB Tim Preston, LB Tylor Scales, and DB Alex LaPiana have all four of their INTs on the season while LB Greg Holt leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss. Those four could make game changing plays against Vazzano who has been prone to throwing INTs in recent weeks.

Trinity X-Factor:

RB Max Chipouras

Chipouras faces the second toughest rush defense this weekend (Amherst still holds the rush defense crown), and he has his work cut out for him. He has faltered compared to his usual talent in recent weeks and hasn’t done much since he blew up against a mediocre defense against Colby in week one. In the last three weeks, averaging 3.7, 3.6, and 4.2 yards per carry which is paltry for even average NESCAC standards. While he still rushed for two touchdowns last weekend, the strongest rush defense he faced was Williams who still allows an average of over 138 yards per game on the ground. He has yet to face Amherst or Tufts yet and that makes me beg the question, has he lost a step?

Tufts X-Factor:

RB Mike Pedrini

While we all know that Ryan McDonald is going to make an impact on Saturday but the Jumbos will need to diversify their offensive attack to penetrate the Bantam defense. RB Dom Borelli has more carries but Pedrini has three touchdowns compared to Borelli’s one. The pair are both averaging just over 4.5 yards per carry each and have more touchdowns than any other pair of Jumbos besides McDonald. He saw almost no action in their only real battle this year against Wesleyan, rushing three times for just six yards. Ryan McDonald has the ball in his hands the majority of the game, although if the same Bantam defense shows up that narrowly lost to Williams, the Jumbos will have difficulty if their QB is the only one with the ball.

Everything Else:

The Coop is going to be rocking on Saturday.

This matchup looks to be remarkably even. Both teams have top defenses, are in the hunt for a championship, and have strong leaders at QB. There’s no doubt that both Ryan McDonald and Jordan Vazzano are elite NESCAC QBs with 6:2 and 11:3 TD to INT ratios, respectively, and should be duking it out in a tightly contested battle this weekend. Trinity clearly has the advantage between RBs, but McDonald is the main weapon for the Tufts rushing game anyways, so they appear to be near equals there as well. Trinity’s receivers are performing remarkably the last few weeks as Jonathan Girard has taken off with 24.2 yards per catch and 6 TDs, making his mark like Mike Breuler did last season for Wesleyan. No Tufts receivers have more than two TDs and this could lead McDonald to lean more heavily on the run game in light of Trinity’s stellar secondary led by Matt Patry and Robert Levine. Vazzano might struggle against some of the Tufts defenders but he will still undoubtedly find some of his wideout weapons while McDonald may have to try to take all of the offensive explosion into his own hands. Here’s the point—both teams have stellar defenses, but Trinity has more weapons to overcome their opponent than the Jumbos.

Predicted Score: Trinity 24 Tufts 17

Week 4 Game of the Week—Amherst @ Middlebury: Season on the Line

Overview:

Amherst is ready for their first test of the young season. They also love their new catch phrase “Crank it”

This game has major championship implications for both teams and could be highly contested depending on what the Panthers bring to the table. Middlebury needs to win out to have a shot at the NESCAC crown and this is their first test since week one in doing that. They gave fans quite a scare in back to back weeks, making their wins against Bowdoin and Colby tight matchups for the first time in a long time. They have plenty of offensive skill position weapons and a nearly impenetrable O-line, a solid secondary and linebacking core, but need to find a way to get the ball to their playmakers. Amherst, on the other hand, controls their own fate in the championship race and is about the face their first test of the season. Their win against Hamilton looks better now that the Continentals knocked off Wesleyan and played closely against Tufts, but Bates and Bowdoin were never a threat to the Mammoths. This game should reveal the direction that each team is heading for the second half of the year.

Key for Amherst: Secondary

Durborow and the rest of the secondary are going to bring it tomorrow.

Avery Saffold, Nate Tyrell, Matt Durborow, and John Ballard will start this weekend, but the Mammoths have plenty of depth in the third tier of their defense. Second string DB Ricky Goodson already has a pick, and this group should bring the heat on the Panthers this weekend. Of course, I still believe Midd has the best group of pass-catchers in the conference (tight ends included), they just haven’t been getting the ball lately. If Amherst can continue the trend that opposing secondaries have brought against Middlebury, the Mammoths will be fine. If they cannot capitalize on QB mistakes and make picks when they need to, the Midd team might just grab ahold and take the reins.

Key for Middlebury: Coaching

Coach Ritter has a tough task this weekend and many difficult decisions ahead of him. His QB play has been inconsistent and disappointing up to this point, but Midd has still stayed afloat these past two weeks. After all, a win is a win, no matter how you get it. So, going into this week, he must have conviction. I can’t remember the last time, if ever, a team won consistently by splitting QB playing time drive by drive. Does he go with the veteran captain, Jack Meservy, who has had difficulty reading defense formations up to this point, or the athletic, versatile, but untested Will Jernigan? He needs to pick one so his receivers can start to get into a bit of a rhythm with the QB. Jernigan saw some first team action this week, but my money would be on Meservy to start the game with a short leash. Peter Scibilia has also been an unexpected weapon up to this point and has helped spark the offense when the air game has stagnated, but does Coach Ritter dare promote a run heavy scheme against the Mammoths? I wouldn’t. If his formula works, he’s a genius.

Amherst X-Factor:

LB/DE Andrew Yamin

Yamin might single handedly stop the Middlebury offense on Saturday in Vermont. He has 12 tackles, six of which were for a loss, and two sacks through three games thus far and should continue to terrorize the run game and drop back on pass formations too. He hasn’t even been as good as he was last year, but should be all over the field this weekend, stopping the suddenly deep Middlebury ground game and disrupting the slot receivers and tight ends.

Middlebury X-Factor:

QB/WR/PR Will Jernigan ’21

While I said I though Meservy would start the game at QB, I’d still put money that Jernigan makes his way behind center at some point. I’m not saying Meservy will throw himself out of the game, but knowing how Coach Ritter has been playing the two of them, even if everything goes perfectly, I’d still expect to see Jernigan at some point against Amherst. His play will make or break this game as he will likely be put right in to a big pressure situation immediately. He has only one TD pass and one INT on the season but also returns kicks, is averaging eight yards per carry, and has two receptions on the season. His athleticism is obvious and he might just pull a Nick Foles and catch and throw for a TD. His ability to run the football also would give Midd just enough play call diversity to give them an edge against Amherst compared to the other teams the Mammoths have played, limiting their effectiveness of shifting between the 3-4 and 4-3.

It might be tough for Scibilia to find running room against the Mammoths.

Everything Else:

This one looks to be pretty one sided in favor of Amherst based on the way that the season has gone so far, but don’t be surprised if the Panthers have a few tricks up their sleeve. After all, the Midd team has a strong history, program, and track record, especially against Amherst (2-0 in the last two meetings) and won’t go down without a fight. Midd is playing on their home turf with what is sure to be a rowdy crowd on a Saturday afternoon. With that said, Amherst has an advantage at QB with Ollie Eberth. Eberth hasn’t done anything spectacular with just 4 TDs, but also hasn’t turned the ball over and has a few solid weapons around him. Jack Hickey should have a field day if the Midd defense allows running room like they did against Nate Richam of Bowdoin and should be the biggest offensive force of the game. For the Panthers, if Conrado Banky, Jimmy Martinez, Maxim Bochman, and Frankie Cosolito can get the ball into their hands, it could get interesting, but they have struggled to connect with the QB early in recent games. If Midd sticks in this one, the special teams play might play a large role too, as K Carter Massengill is off to a solid start and WR Jimmy Martinez has the ability to take any kick to the house.

Predicted Score: Amherst 34 Middlebury 24

Forget what you think you know: Week 3 Stock Report

Week 3 Stock Report

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Purple Cow Magic: Not only did the Ephs knock off the perennial NESCAC champs, but they did so with two different QBs. Bobby Maimaron had a great game, throwing for two TDs and running for nearly 100, but got knocked out of the game for a play after taking a hit. In his brief absence, first year backup QB Jackson Bischoping casually threw a 49 yard TD pass to Frank Stola. So even if their start QB were to go down, they still might be the favorites at the 1/3 point to win the conference. Watch out, NESCAC, there’s a new squad on top.

Colby’s future: Okay, while a 31-14 loss seems pretty brutal, this game against Middlebury was much closer than the box score indicated. It was 10-7 in the fourth quarter against an inconsistent but undeniably talented Panther team (I mean they even have an offensive lineman, Colin Paskewitz, who can force a defensive fumble—check the box score if you don’t believe me). QB Matt Hersch had some ups and downs but threw to six different receivers, giving Coach Cosgrove some real weapons to work with this season.

Hamilton, for better or worse, looks like they’ll gut it out.

Hamilton’s Grit: Well, we have certainly bad mouthed the Continentals and QB Kenny Gray in recent weeks. After all, they didn’t show us a whole lot in the first two games of the season, but they shocked everybody by taking out the Wesleyan Cardinals, one of the frontrunners for NESCAC champs. Gray boasted a 1-4 TD-INT ratio going into week three, but threw for four scores and ran for 56 in their 33-29 upset. DB Christian Snell also made a huge impact by blocking a punt and recovering it for a TD, hustling his team into the win column. We talked about the veteran presence on this team, and it is now clear that despite some early duds, they do want it.

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Tufts D: While the Jumbos were able to pull out the victory against Bates, there was a time when they had their perfect record in question. They were down 14-10 at half and Bates looked like they were going to be able to keep up. Of course, Bates was not a match for the Jumbos, allowing a whopping 37 second half points, but a turnover free game doesn’t bode well for the Jumbo defense. They let a team who hasn’t been able to muster any offensive progress all year to score in the air and on the ground and against a stronger opponent, they may have been bested with such an effort. Tread carefully.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Bantams play on their heels, but at just 2-1, they have an uphill battle.

Connecticut muscle: Neither the Bantams nor the Cardinals could stave off their week three competition. Wesleyan allowed 357 yards of total offense compared to the 413 they racked up and still lost. A costly pick from Mark Piccirillo, and bad special teams play were the game changers for a team that looked as if they cold go undefeated entering week three. Losing to a bottom tier team is not only shocking to everybody else but devastating to their championship hopes. Punter Sam Han averaged just 27.1 yards per punt, not exactly flipping the field for his defense. The Bantams had similar issues, allowing a slew of rushing and passing yards to a body of different players. They couldn’t figure it out and neither could star transfer QB Jordan Vazzano who threw two picks. Even super human Max Chipouras couldn’t break off many big plays with his longest run of the day coming at just 18 yards, tallying an impressive 135 yards but averaging 3.6 yards per carry after a crazy workload of 38 carries. TJ Rothmann owned the Bantams, forcing a fumble and intercepting Vazzano, effectively ending the Bantams’ early 2018 dominant start.

Expectations vs. Reality; Week 1 Stock Report

Stock Report

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Wesleyan Secondary: Ben Thaw was the defensive star of the weekend, racking up two INTs, a TD, and 46 return yards, all but handing the Cardinals the victory. Alex Kirk added another pick and Mark Piccirillo could easily do the rest, tearing through the Panthers. They also limited the speedy Jimmy Martinez to just 17 yards, and prevented any receiver from tallying over 60 yards receiving which is just as impressive as their onslaught on Middlebury’s QB. They face another challenge this weekend against Tufts but should handle McDonald and the Jumbos just like they did in Week 1.

Ben Thaw locked up a NESCAC defensive player of the week award with his two INTs.

Bates Defense: Although the Bobcats lost in the first game of Malik Hall’s tenure as head coach, they kept the score much closer than I thought they would against Amherst. Amherst has a number of offensive weapons in QB Ollie Eberth, receivers Bo Berluti and James O’Reagan, and RB Jack Hickey, but only scored 19 points. Granted, this showed that the Bobcat ground defense is worse than their pass defense as all three TDs came on rushes. Eberth threw for just 112 yards though, and that is a small start in a new era of Bates football. They had six tackles for loss and one sack, however, they will need a better pass rush in the future.

Trinity’s Title Chances: Jordan Vazzano is the real deal and that means that the Bantams are back. Unlike McCrum at Bowdoin, Vazzano had an excellent debut and led his new Trinity team to a dominating 35-0 victory against Colby. Now, nobody thought that the Mules had a chance in this one, but he certainly took his first step in the right direction with 210 yards passing and two TDs. I took some heat after predicting the Bantams to be just 6-3, and although there is a lot of season left, I don’t like the chances for that one panning out.

Stock Down

Jack Meservy needs to get it together before a week 4 matchup vs. Amherst.

Middlebury QB Empire: Following the graduation of past NESCAC legends, Donnie McKillop, McCallum Foote (possibly the best of the group), Matt Milano and Jared Lebowitz, who all called plays in Vermont, Jack Meservy had big shoes to fill. He performed well enough to retain the starting spot at the end of the 2017 season and the 2018 preseason, but bad decisions cost him in week one. He has been experiencing shoulder pain as well, and it’s unclear as to whether it effected him against Wesleyan, but his all star receivers didn’t get the balls they needed to make big plays happen. All three of the interceptions were costly, as one was a pick-6 and the two others left the dynamic Cardinal offense with a short field. Meservy has two weeks to figure it out against Bowdoin and Colby before taking on the mighty Amherst defense.

Hamilton’s Destiny Year: If there was ever a year for Hamilton to be good, this is it. They return heaps of players on both sides of the ball, but simply couldn’t get anything going against Tufts. In fact, their defense scored more than their offense with two points on a safety. They used three different QBs due to a tough three INT performance from Kenny Gray. Their offensive line allowed six sacks, making their QBs and run game without time to let plays develop. Will Budington was the lone bright spot with over 100 yards receiving, accounting for most of the Continental offense.

McCrum had a disappointing week one debut.

Excitement in Brunswick: After getting in transfer QB Austin McCrum from Lafayette, the Polar Bear fans should’ve had high hopes. After all, what else could take your team to the promised land than a fearless former D1 leader? Well, disappointment is here. A paltry opening week performance saw McCrum go just 10-25 with a pick before getting benched for Griff Stalcup, a promising sophomore who started most of their games a season ago. Stalcup did just fine, throwing a TD and no INTs, but he doesn’t quite match up against the signal callers of other quality teams.

NESCAC Coaching Carousel: Bates, Colby, and the rest

The four best teams in the NESCAC traditionally dominate the bottom four, with two teams hovering around .500. These trends do not stray much from year to year, as certain programs, coaches, and players can carry teams through an era. Over the past five years, the bottom four teams in the standings have finished a combined 30-134 while the top four teams have finished 134-30. This unfortunate commonality between years leads to few competitive games on an already short schedule. However, coaching changes and shifts within the conference offer a chance to shake up the standings.

New coaches to struggling programs face two challenges: the first being dealing with the talent or lack there of at the school they’re arriving at and the second is attracting recruits to a losing program. This is process often takes multiple years to complete, as coaches look to bring in new players that they got to recruit themselves. Of course, the results of regime changes are not black and white, and first-year coaches, despite the challenges that they face, look to make a splash and bring home a winning team in their first season at the reins. Mark Raymond took over as head coach of the Williams College Ephs prior to the 2016 season when they went 0-8. The next year? 6-3.

Coach Raymond quickly turned around a reeling Eph program

In February 2016, Williams announced that Raymond would take over. He’d graduated from Buffalo in 1993 after lettering for three years in football. He spent time as an assistant at St. Lawrence, Syracuse, and SUNY-Canton, and was defensive coordinator at Ithaca before returning to St. Lawrence to take the head coaching job. Raymond resurrected a struggling program there and turned it into a powerhouse, earning Liberty League coach of the year honors twice along the way. By his second season at Williams, he was NESCAC coach of the year.

It took one recruiting class for Raymond to build a winner, which is an exciting prospect for Colby and Bates, as both brought in new head coaches this offseason. There have been three head coaching changes within a two-year span in the NESCAC, changing the coaching landscape. This brings in entirely new schemes and overall program attitudes to recently struggling programs.

Malik Hall has the experience and plan to make Bates into a winning program.

Malik Hall joined Bates in June of 2018, becoming the program’s 20th head coach. A native of Detroit, Hall played at UMass and coached the defensive line at Central Connecticut State and Hofstra University. Hall spent three years serving as defensive coordinator and linebacker coach at Wagner College, where his defense was one of the top units in the nation. He served as the defensive line coach at Pennsylvania for the past three seasons before accepting the head coaching position at Bates.

His transition will be particularly compelling to watch as he transitions a run-heavy team to an Air Raid offense, looking to follow a more traditional approach in a passing-heavy conference. This drastic short-term change could be enough for his team to compete against league favorites Trinity, Wesleyan and Amherst. Hall looks to foster both “grit and talent” at Bates and hopes that he can lead his 2018 Bobcat team to “overachieve,” perhaps using a new scheme to overlook the deficit in offense that Lewiston has seen in recent years (Sun Journal, Lee Horton (http://www.sunjournal.com/dropping-dimes-new-bates-football-coach-bringing-the-juice/). His team will change its defense to run a 3-4 to add pressure in the middle tier of the defense and utilize QB Brendan Costa to distribute the ball more, moving away from a ground heavy offense (Lee Horton, Press Herald https://www.pressherald.com/2018/06/18/hall-ready-to-kick-off-new-era-for-bates-football/).

Colby hired Jack Cosgrove as its new head coach in January 2018. Cosgrove graduated from Maine in 1978 where he played quarterback. By 1993, he had taken over as head coach of the program. He served as head coach of the Black Bears for 23 years, and during his tenure compiled a school-record 129 wins and made the NCAA tournament five times. Since stepping aside as head coach in 2015, Cosgrove worked as the senior associate director of athletics at UMaine until accepting the head coaching position at Colby.

The Mules have struggled mightily in recent years, following the losing path of the other Maine schools of Bowdoin and Bates, but are making a push to improve all of their sports programs. A new baseball field and a soon to be new field house will take Colby above many of the other schools in the NESCAC, transitioning into a more attractive destination for incoming collegiate athletes. As a result of a current absence of big-play making personnel, this transition to on field success will take longer than that of Bates and Williams but should be complete in a few short years.

Cosgrove faces a tough task by inheriting a team that hasn’t had a .500 record since 2013, but will look to improve his program through recruiting. There is a rising belief that he will have an edge in the NESCAC in attracting top high school players, likely due to his history as a former Division I head coach. His connections and history are going to be key in bringing Colby football back on the NESCAC map (Drew Bonifant, Central Maine, https://www.centralmaine.com/2017/12/29/colby-to-hire-jack-cosgrove-as-next-football-coach/). Since he was hired in December of 2017, Cosgrove had enough time to add recruits to the Mule roster for this coming season, so changes will be evident on the playing field in 2018 as he looks to bring a quick turn around to a developing athletic program at Colby.

Aside from the three newest coaches, the average NESCAC head coach has held the position at their school for over 10 years – a long time in the coaching world. Many of the coaches are alums of the school they coach, or were assistants in the program or in the conference beforehand. As schools begin to take D-III athletics more seriously, the role of the head coach in guiding, shaping, and recruiting players becomes even more important. It’ll be interesting to see how this change in attitude manifests itself as coaches Raymond, Cosgrove, and Hall look to usher in successful eras of football in each of their new roles.