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NCAA Second Round Preview: Amherst College vs. No. 20 St. John Fisher College

Game Information: Amherst (21-7) at St. John Fisher (24-4)

Saturday, March 7, 7:00 PM

Manning and Napier Varsity Gym, St. John Fisher College, Rochester, NY

Live Stats  Video

Meet Optimystik Kinard '15, the 6'6" forward who shot St. John Fisher into the Round of 32. (Courtesy of St. John Fisher Athletics)
Meet Optimystik Kinard ’15, the 6’6″ forward who shot St. John Fisher into the Round of 32. (Courtesy of St. John Fisher Athletics)

We nailed the prediction for Amherst winning their first round matchup with Sage comfortably, but I can’t pretend like we foresaw 28 points in 21 minutes from Reid Berman ’17 and 19 really disastrous minutes from Jayde Dawson ’18. We got a little frustrated with the self-proclaimed “most controversial Division III sports broadcast” last night (you can look for the conversation yourself if you so desire), but they weren’t wrong on one point.

It was starting to look like Dawson was going to overtake Berman for the NCAA stretch, but now we don’t know what to think, and I don’t think that Coach David Hixon knows any better than we do. As long as the two young point men keep trading good games, Amherst will be fine. It’s when they both struggle on the same night that it will become an issue.

No. 18 WPI had no chance last night against a No. 20 St. John Fisher team that shot 13-17 from deep, six of those coming from Optimystik Kindard ’15, who didn’t miss a trey ball, and he knew how to pay his respects.

The Engineers packed the paint against Keegan Ryan ’17, the Cardinals’ leading scorer, which worked because Ryan had as many turnovers as points (three), but his teammates picked up the slack.

Three Storylines to Watch

1. The Amherst point guard conundrum

Berman will likely start, as he has for the last 12 Jeff games, but expect the minutes to be shared equally, at least in the first half, between Berman and Dawson. After halftime, Coach Hixon is likely to go with the hot hand. Berman is a great distributor and has been the more consistent of the pair, but Dawson brings more to the court from a scoring perspective and on defense, although you wouldn’t know it from watching last night’s game.

Jayde Dawson '18 brings a potent offensive skill set to the Amherst offense. It just doesn't always show up on game night. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Jayde Dawson ’18 brings a potent offensive skill set to the Amherst offense. It just doesn’t always show up on game night. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

2. Three point shooting from both teams

Amherst is among the top 20 teams in the nation in three point attempts, and hits a respectable 37.4 percent of its tries. St. John Fisher, meanwhile, takes a lot less threes, but hits at a slightly higher clip (38.9 percent). As we mentioned, the Cards were unstoppable from deep last night, but Coach Hixon believes that WPI didn’t do itself any favors on defense. He has instructed his players to lay off the weak side help and gamble a bit more on long passes, which will make it easier for his wing players to close out on potential shooters. The question is whether that will open up more looks for Ryan, the 6’7″ 235 lbs. center. In addition to Kinard, who is shooting 40.0 percent on the year from deep, Adam Ambielli ’15 and Tyler Hart ’16 both shoot over 40 percent from beyond the arch and might be more dangerous than the lengthy Kinard.

3. Rebounding battle

Somewhat tied in to the above, Amherst should dominate in the rebounding category. The Jeffs have a rebounding margin of +5.2 on the season, and the Cards +5.4, but Amherst was one of the better rebounding teams in the NESCAC while St. John Fisher was at the bottom of the Empire 8. The Cards lack front court depth beyond Ryan. Coach Rob Kornaker basically runs a six-man rotation, but gives about 10 minutes per game to reserve big man Zach Ottaway ’17. There is a significant drop off from Ryan to Ottaway, and aside from those two the only player with significant minutes over 6’1″ is Kinard, who is not an inside player and at 6’6″ 195 lbs. can be pushed around. Not only does Amherst have two strong big men in George and Conklin, but Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 are great rebounding guards and will have height advantages over their defenders. For St. John Fisher to hang in this game they will have to somehow eliminate second chance looks off of missed three pointers from the Jeffs.

Amherst X-Factor: Guard Connor Green ’16

Coach Hixon put it best when he said that Green is “lost right now” on offense. Through the first game of the NESCAC Tournament Green was giving Lucas Hausman ’16 a run for his money for the title of hottest shooter in the ‘CAC. Since then, though, Green has 24 points in three games on 18.4 percent (7-38) shooting and 11.1 percent (2-18) from deep. Green was even benched for the majority of the second half of the NESCAC title game against Wesleyan. This is a game where Green could make an impact even if he isn’t scoring, but Amherst needs to get him going if they hope to return to the Final Four.

Connor Green '16 averages 16.2 points per game, but he's been far removed from that type of production as of late. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Connor Green ’16 averages 16.2 points per game, but he’s been far removed from that type of production as of late. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

St. John Fisher X-Factor: Point Guard Chaz Lott ’16

This is a close call, because the Cards spread the ball around extremely well. On the season, six players are averaging between 8.5 and 15.4 points per game. But Lott runs the offense for Coach Kornaker, and is an all-around player, averaging 10.6 PPG, 6.1 APG with a 2.2 A/TO and 5.0 RPG. What’s more, Lott will be responsible for locking down Amherst’s point guard, whoever that happens to be at the time. If Lott can shut down Berman/Dawson, that puts the pressure on Green to score buckets, and we should find out pretty quickly if the junior member of the 1,000 point club has his stroke back.

Prediction

Wow, this is tough. What if both Amherst point guards have off nights? What if Connor Green can’t put it together? What if Eric Conklin reverts back to his pre-NESCAC Tournament self. What if Keegan Ryan is too much for David George? That’s a lot of “What ifs,” and despite all of that I am still confident in Amherst moving on to the Sweet 16. I feel strongly that they would whoop Sage last night, and I’m sticking by the Jeffs. It’s no secret that Amherst is packed with talent, but it’s been a matter of inexperience this season. Amherst has no seniors among its rotation, and Green is the only junior that gets significant minutes (Ray Barry ’16 has gotten minutes at times and Ben Pollack ’16 would be a factor if not for injury). Still, the lights were not too bright for Amherst last night, and I don’t think they will be fazed this evening, either. I expect the rebounding margin to be heavily tilted in Amherst’s favor, which alone should keep the score tight.

Amherst 75 – St. John Fisher 67

Panthers Make Rude Guests in Hartford: Stock Report 10/26

Every streak will end at some point, and Trinity’s vaunted home winning streak of 53 games finally came to a stunning finish on Saturday. Like any streak of such length, the Bantams endured many close calls before Saturday, but the Panthers sucked out any potential drama long before the final whistle. Middlebury scored the first 20 points of the game, and a Brendan Rankowitz ’15 touchdown catch with 6:07 left made it 27-7, essentially ending the game.

So just how did Middlebury manage to take down the unbeatable Bantams? Well, considering the margin of victory, the simple answer is that Middlebury just outplayed Trinity. From a more philosophical point of view, this was speed beating size. The Trinity starting offensive line averages 280 pounds while the three down lineman for Middlebury average 247 pounds. That didn’t matter as Middlebury was still able to get to the ball.

Trinity finished the game with 85 yards rushing on 38 attempts, a 2.2 yards per carry average. The last time Trinity was held to under 100 yards rushing was October 2, 2010 when Williams held the Bantams to 87 yards rushing. Not coincidentally that was also a loss for Trinity. The 85 yards was the lowest total in a game since October 11, 2008 when Tufts (yes, Tufts) held the Bantams to 50 yards rushing. (Of course in that game Trinity threw for 470 as well to win a wild overtime game 28-27.)

The fact that the two top tacklers for Middlebury were defensive backs tells us that while the Panthers won the line of scrimmage, they didn’t do it conventionally. Waves of defenders threw themselves at the point of attack on running plays without exposing any lanes for cutbacks. Trinity’s longest run in the game was 19 yards.

Matt Minno '16 hauls down one of his three touchdowns in the Panthers' victory. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)
Matt Minno ’16 hauls down one of his three touchdowns in the Panthers’ victory. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)

Not having Sonny Puzzo on the roster for Trinity hurt the Bantams because Foye is not a runner. Puzzo gave the Trinity offense a little more diversity and defenses had more difficulty keying on one player. Spencer Aukamp ’18 has the running capabilities to replicate Puzzo, but Aukamp is not as polished of a passer. Henry Foye ’15 was able to come back from a touchdown deficit last week against Bowdoin, but he is not a quarterback capable of leading a team back from the hole Trinity found themselves in early in the second half.

Meanwhile, Matt Milano ’16 played a nearly perfect game. He went 25-36 for 286 yards. Though he threw one interception, he made up for it with four touchdowns. Matt Minno ’16 reemerged from the shadows last week against Bates, and he confirmed that he is back with his best game of the season: a three touchdown, 90 yard day. Milano actually played better than Mac Foote ’14 did last year when Middlebury beat Trinity in Vermont. Throw out the debacle against Amherst, and Milano has been stellar.

The running game led by Drew Jacobs ’18 was nothing special, but it did enough to keep Trinity honest. The Bantams could not load up on 3rd and long and come after Milano, especially because the Middlebury offense is designed to get the ball out quickly.

Finally, credit should be given to the Middlebury special teams which had two big plays early in the second half. The first was a gutsy on-side kick call coming out of the half. Rather than giving Trinity the ball back with the score 13-0 Middlebury, the Panthers dialed up an onside kick that they recovered. Two plays later, Milano hit hit Minno for his third touchdown of the game. The next drive Trinity tried a fake punt on 4th and 2 from their own 43-yard line, but Middlebury was not fooled at all. Michael Budness ’15 gained only one yard and the Trinity gambled failed.

The last time Trinity lost at home was to Williams in September of 2001. Every Trinity football player starting with the class of 2006 until the class of 2014 was undefeated at home. The thing for Trinity is that their path to a NESCAC championship remains unchanged. If they can rally and beat Amherst and then Wesleyan, they will at least earn a share of the NESCAC title. With only two weeks to still go, both Connecticut schools have now lost when before the season it looked possible that both would go undefeated until they faced each other.

Stock Up

Safety Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury): Seems like every week we highlight another Panther defensive player that has emerged as a cog in a defense that has become the strength of Middlebury. Pierce had a great all around game totaling 12 tackles and two interceptions. He had the play of the game midway through the second quarter. With Middlebury up 7-0, the Bantams drove the ball down to the five yard line. Then Pierce picked off Henry Foye ’15 in the end zone and returned it 71 yards to the Trinity 29-yard line. Four plays later, Middlebury punched it in to go up by two touchdowns forcing Trinity out of their comfort zone. Pierce now leads the Panthers in tackles on the season and is fourth overall in the NESCAC. We know it is early, but given that players like Pierce, Tim Patricia ’16,  and Nate Leedy ’17 will all be back on defense along with Milano leading an offense that will return all of its playmakers with the exception of Rankowitz, Middlebury should be the favorite entering next year.

Wide Receiver Steven Kiesel ’15 (Williams): Saturday was just another ho-hum day for the senior receiver as he finished with five catches, 62 yards, and a touchdown that ended up being the difference in Williams’ 21-14 victory. Kiesel’s performance was notable because of how normal it has become. He has had at least five receptions in all but one of Williams’ games and now leads the NESCAC in receptions for the year. With the Ephs backed up on their own one, Austin Lommen ’16 went to his favorite target and hit Kiesel for a 32-yard gain that ended with Kiesel’s touchdown catch. The Williams running game has struggled for long stretches of this season, and Kiesel has been the most reliable source of offense for the Ephs. It might be a longshot given they are only 2-4, but Williams can salvage their season starting Saturday with a big upset over Wesleyan.

Quarterback Matt Cannone ’15 (Bates): The CBB picked up right where it left off last year in terms of excitement. The Bobcats QB returned just in time to get the Bates offense moving. He was still bothered by his ankle so that he was not much of a threat out of the pocket, but Cannone still played admirably. He went 18-32 for 203 yards and four touchdowns. His main target was Mark Riley ’16, but with the game on the line he used Riley as a diversion and went to Frank Williams ’18. On 4th and goal, Cannone found Williams for the game tying touchdown with under a minute left. Then in overtime the same connection worked again for a 25 yard touchdown and the victory. The win gives Bates the early lead in the CBB with the Bobcats visiting Bowdoin this week. Now Cannone will look to seal the CBB.

Running back LaShawn Ware ’17 (Hamilton): Sometimes, you have to admit that you’ve made a mistake. At the beginning of the season, in our Breakout Players of 2014 article, we highlighted Hamilton backs Rico Gonzalez ’16 and converted safety Jeff Hopsicker ’15. Gonzalez hasn’t been much of a factor all year, and had two carries against Williams. Hopsicker started out as the team’s primary back, but has seen his carries total dwindle ever since Week 2. When we spoke with head coach Dave Murray at the beginning of the year, he highlighted the speedy Ware as someone who could make an impact, but we just saw too much competition in the backfield. Well, Ware now leads the team in rushing yards and yards per carry, and racked up a career-high 115 yards against Williams. It looks like Murray has settled into a two-headed attack, with Ware moving the ball down the field and Amman Weaver ’18 getting the chances to punch it in near the goal line. It’s another lost season for the Continentals, but there will be weapons back in 2015.

Stock Down

Tufts Offensive Execution: A few stats from the Tufts-Amherst game: Tufts first downs – 11, Amherst first downs – 12. Tufts total yards – 249, Amherst total yards – 244. Tufts return yards – 78, Amherst return yards – 93. So how was this game 30-3 in favor of the Jeffs? As the Tufts website notes, every single Amherst scoring drive started in Tufts territory. Seventy-nine of those return yards came on interceptions for Amherst, with Chris Gow ’16 returning one Alex Snyder ’17 pass to the house. The Lord Jeff defense is very good and known for their takeaways, but this was another level. A big reason for that was because Jack Doll ’15 did not start and only threw the ball six times. It would have been extremely difficult for the Jumbos to upset Amherst at home with the Jeffs smelling a conference championship, but the offense let down a defense that played much better than the score indicated.

Bowdoin Secondary: One week after allowing Henry Foye to enjoy his best game of the season, Jesse Warren ’15 threw for five touchdowns against the Bowdoin secondary. Early in the game Bowdoin was getting pressure, but Warren converted two third downs of more than 12 yards on the first touchdown drive. For the game Wesleyan was 10-17 on third down. The Polar Bears have had problems slowing down the opposition’s passing attack all year with teams finding ways of making big plays consistently. Though Jay Fabien ’15 was slowed, Josh Hurwitz ’15 stepped up and had three touchdown catches. The Bowdoin secondary will have to rise to the occasion and stop Bates’ Riley on Saturday.

Colby’s Depth: The brutal opening schedule robbed Colby of a good deal of their players, and in an effort to get their best talent on the field, wide receivers Luke Duncklee ’15 and Nick Joseph ’15 have started playing on defense as well. Many NESCAC players went both ways in high school so they are somewhat used to it, but doing it in college is especially hard because it is much harder to take any plays off. The duo played well Saturday totaling 14 tackles between them, but it was not enough for Colby to hold off Bates. Advocates for expanding the current roster to more than 75 players might point to Colby’s issues as evidence. It is possible that the issue comes up again in conversations between coaches and administrators, but schools are unlikely to look at this one instance and consider it enough reason to change a longstanding rule.

 

Now the Fun Has Started: The Stock Report 10/21

For NESCAC watchers, this weekend lived up to its promise and then some. Amherst at Wesleyan featured two of the top-three teams trading punches the entire game until Phillip Nwosu ’15 decided it. Then up in Maine, Trinity was without Chudi Iregbulem ’15 and needed a fourth quarter comeback to knock off a resilient Bowdoin team. Middlebury got to above .500 for the first time this year. Finally, Colby got into the winning column in a huge way. There is a lot to cover, so let’s get to the stock report.

Stock Up

Kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 (Amherst): Back in the preseason when we made Nwosu our team MVP for the Jeffs, many probably found it unusual to see a kicker get so much love. Then the senior went 1-4 on field goals entering the game Saturday with the three misses all coming from 33 yards or fewer. He was still forcing plenty of touchbacks, but something was off. Well Nwosu could not have picked a better time to get his form right than Saturday. He finished 4-4 on field goals and 3-3 on extra points to account for 15 of Amherst’s 33 points. His most important kick was also his best: a 41-yarder in unsure footing with under a minute left to force the game into overtime. The win for Amherst was of course a complete team effort with big games from Gene Garay ’15 and Chris Tamasi ’15 in particular, but at the end of the game after Nwosu had hit the game winner, it was the kicker who was hoisted onto the soldiers of his teammates in celebration.

Colby Leadership: We have made note several times of the brutal schedule that Colby had to face to begin the year, and Saturday saw the Mules take all their frustration out on the Continentals. The Mules came out on a mission from the first snap of the game. The Continentals were the poor team that had all that aggression taken out on them, and they are a better team than they showed on Saturday. Still, this game was over even before halftime with Colby up 40-0. Hats off to the Colby seniors for keeping the team together and working hard in the lead up to this game. Jason Buco ’15 was the star for the defense with two interceptions, and Luke Duncklee ’15 had his best game of the season recording three total touchdowns. Gabe Harrington ’17 looked comfortable in the pocket spreading out his throws to a wealth of receivers. The Mules go to Bates on Saturday in the opener of the CBB (Colby-Bowdoin-Bates). After Saturday, Colby sees no reason why they can’t close the season on a torrid streak.

Bowdoin Linebackers: The trio of Brendan Lawler ’16, Branden Morin ’16, and Bjorn Halvorsen ’17 combined for 34 tackles with 5.5 tackles for loss. Lawler recovered a fumble while Morin accounted for Bowdoin’s only touchdown with a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown. We mentioned on Friday how Bowdoin had the worst rush defense in terms of yards per rush allowed, but on Saturday Trinity gained only 2.8 yards per rush without Iregbulem. The play of the Bowdoin linebackers and the front seven in general forced the Bantams to turn to the air in order to claw their way back for the 17-10 victory. After a slow start to the season, all three linebackers have started to make plays all over the field for the Bowdoin defense.

Stock Down

Bates’ Triple Option: At this point the Bates offense has essentially come to a grinding halt. The Bobcats are averaging a league worst 13.0 points per game. They are also averaging only 231.2 yards per game, the worst mark by any NESCAC team since Tufts averaged 219.5 yards in 2011. Bates usually tries to run the ball all over teams with the triple option, but the running game has had no consistency. Their 2.2 yards per rush average is by far the worst in the NESCAC, with Middlebury the next worse at 2.6. Quarterback Matt Cannone ’15 is the most talented player on the offensive side and he was the player most capable of breathing life into the offense when the running game struggled. However, injuries have slowed him in recent weeks and he has been far from 100 percent. Without him healthy, a once promising season is near the precipice.

Running Back Kyle Gibson ’15 (Wesleyan): After the injury to LaDarius Drew ’15, this was supposed to be the year when Gibson shined as the lead back in Wesleyan’s run heavy attack, but for whatever reason it just has not materialized. Gibson averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year but only 3.4 yards this year. It is entirely possible that Gibson has been struggling with injuries or something else is up because he averaged only 27.5 yards in his past two games. Wesleyan’s running issues do not end with Gibson though. After leading the NESCAC in yards per rush last year with 4.7, the Cardinals are seventh in the NESCAC at 2.9 yards per rush. The Cardinals are so lost for how to get it moving that Donnie Cimino ’15 and Jake Bussani ’14 each got carries on Saturday in an attempt to inject some life into the offense. Jesse Warren ’15 has raised his play almost enough to offset those issues, but a passing offense is not what Wesleyan wants its identity to be.

Week 1 Results: It has now been a month and a day since the first results of the season came back, and at this point it is very important to remember what has changed. Williams was the team of the week with their 36-0 beatdown of Bowdoin. They were riding high until Trinity came in and returned the favor with a 38-0 win. Williams has now lost four games in a row and it looks like they are in disarray. The Polar Bears turned their season around and came close to pulling the upset of the season on Saturday.

Look, Week 1 did tell us a lot. It told us Wesleyan would not be the juggernaut we thought they could be without Drew running the ball, that the Amherst defense was going to be really good, and that something really cool was going on in Medford. Yet you can’t trust everything that happens in the first week of the season. Teams in the NESCAC are closer talent-wise than they might appear from week to week. One injury or a weird bounce can put an “elite” team into a dogfight like Trinity found themselves in this weekend. Teams mature and change over the course of the season so that at times it seems that what we saw in the first week was a mirage.

Contenders All Survive – Saturday Wrap-up

Well, we watched a good twelve hours of sports yesterday that made us remember why we love October so much (how was your Saturday?). The first five hours were spent with a NESCAC game (or a few) streaming on a computer. We said it would be a somewhat boring day so of course two of the crazier games this year happened. Here is your wrap-up.

Bowdoin (2-2) 30, Hamilton (0-4) 24

The first game of the day was a wild one at the end. The teams scored 22 points in the final 2:24 with three attempted onside kicks and a Hail Mary to boot. The craziness started when, after a Hamilton TD made it 22-17,  the Continentals recovered an onside kick, only to see it erased by an offsides penalty. Bowdoin managed to recover the next attempt and Tyler Grant ’17 scored two plays later to put Bowdoin up 30-17 with 2:06. Then Amman Weaver ’18 took the ensuing kickoff back to the house, but Bowdoin once again recovered the onside kick attempt. Bowdoin had to punt with under 30 seconds left and saw Hamilton block it to take over at the Bowdoin 27 yard line with nine seconds left. Bowdoin finally clinched it when Dan Johnson ’15 intercepted Chase Rosenberg ’17 in the end zone with three seconds left.

Bowdoin has a complete game recap or you can watch the entire game on the Hamilton stream. Start it at the 2:48:00 mark to see the end of game craziness.

Wesleyan (4-0) 24, Bates (1-3) 10

The Cardinals sweated this game out as the Bobcats proved to be worthy adversaries despite playing without their starting quarterback Matt Cannone. Wesleyan struggled to move the ball on the ground except in the wildcat as Devon Carillo ’17 gained 92 of their 143 yards as the wildcat quarterback. This was a 17-10 game in the fourth quarter before Wesleyan converted a short field off of a fumble recovery into a touchdown on a screen from Jesse Warren ’15 to Jay Fabien ’15. The Bates website has a full recap and photos from the game.

Amherst (4-0) 35, Colby (0-4) 10

This was a 3-0 game in favor of Colby after one half, but quarterback Max Lippe ’15 entered the game for his first appearance of the season and changed the Amherst offense. After a Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16 interception, Lippe entered and on his first attempt completed a 68 yard pass to Brian Ragone ’16 to set up the first Amherst touchdown. From that point on Amherst rolled with a Ned Deane ’15 interception return for a touchdown to make it 28-10 on the first play of the fourth quarter essentially ending it. For Colby, the game was like a broken record of their entire first half where they stayed close for a while before fading late. Amherst has a complete game recap or you can watch highlights featuring analysis from Head Coach EJ Mills below.

Trinity (4-0) 35, Tufts (2-2) 14

We came within one point of exactly nailing this score (we had Trinity 34-Tufts 14), as the Bantams used a big second quarter to move past Tufts. The Jumbos took the lead after another long Zack Trause ’15 punt return led to a short touchdown, but after that Trinity’s run game took over. Chudi Iregbulem ’15 led the way with 184 yards and four touchdowns. The home winning streak for Trinity now stands at 53 games. A fake punt pass from Michael Budness ’15 to Bryan Vieira ’18 helped give Trinity their second touchdown and the lead they would never relinquish.

Here is the full game recap.

Middlebury (2-2) 23, Williams (1-3) 20

The last game of the afternoon was also the closest as it took overtime to decide this one. The first half was a defensive battle with another 3-0 score, this one in favor of Williams. The Panther defense, like they have done all year, got Middlebury going with a fumble recovery for a touchdown by Will Bain ’15. Williams was up a touchdown late in the fourth quarter but could not close the game out on offense giving the Panthers back the ball with a little over two minutes remaining. That was all the time Matt Milano ’16 and company needed to tie up the game. In overtime Williams got the ball first and stalled inside the five yard line before settling for a field goal. A beautiful pass from Milano to Brendan Rankowitz ’15 won it for Middlebury and sent the entire Panthers team into the end zone in celebration.

Complete game recap and photos can be found if you follow the link.

Week Three Power Rankings

After week one we had our knee-jerk Power Rankings that put Williams as the number one team in the NESCAC…yikes. Well after three weeks the NESCAC has become much more clear so it is time to take another look.

Our full weekend preview won’t be out until first thing Saturday morning so check back in for that.

1. Trinity (3-0)- Last week the Bantams played well below their capabilities and still beat Hamilton by 12. The Bantams are the most talented team in the NESCAC up and down the roster. The offensive line punished teams while the defense makes big plays. We won’t know really how good they are until they finish against Middlebury, Amherst, and Wesleyan.

2. Wesleyan (3-0)- In the first four games of 2013 the Cardinals beat opponents by an astonishing 35.3 points per game. Through three games the margin of victory has been (only) 17 points per game so they have not shown the same type of dominance. They miss LaDarius Drew ’15 who could possibly miss the rest of the year because of a foot injury.

3. Amherst (3-0)- We have said it before, but this is basically the same team as last year. The defense carries them and the offense relies on big plays to score points. Alex Kelly ’17 has emerged as the workhorse back, but once again the QB position is in limbo with Reece Foy ’18 pushing for time behind starter Alex Berluti ’17.

4. Middlebury (1-2)- Two close loses at home have knocked the Panthers out of the conference race early, but they are still a very good team. The defense was almost able to make enough plays to steal the game last week. Matt Milano ’16 was erratic going 9-31 against Amherst. The offense should get back on track against Williams.

5. Tufts (2-1)- The divide between the top four and everybody else is wide. Tufts certainly did not look like the fifth best team on Saturday, but who else can you put here? Zack Trause ’15 was a tackle by the kicker away from another touchdown against Bowdoin and leads the nation in kickoff return average.

6. Bates (1-2)- Injuries are threatening to hurt Bates in the next couple of weeks so head coach Mark Harriman will have to rely on his depth more than usual. The offense has not had nearly the same amount of punch that it did last year though Matt Cannone ’16 has made major strides as a passer.

7. Williams (1-2)- Well the last two weeks did not go as expected for Williams and the calls for Head Coach Aaron Kelton to be fired are as loud as ever. The team has to rally and find a way to recover quickly.

8. Bowdoin (1-2)- An offense that could not get any points on the board looked sharp against Tufts racking up 463 yards. The defense misses the presence of the three starting linebackers from 2013 as the Polar Bears are allowing six yards per play through three games.

9. Hamilton (0-3)- The Continentals deserve credit for keeping the game against Trinity so tight. The defense is playing at a different level this year allowing the second least first downs per game and tallying the second most tackles per loss per game as a unit.

10. Colby (0-3)- Losing Justin Ciero ’16 to transfer was going to hurt, but that does not explain why the defense has suddenly turned into one of the worst in the league. The Mules have to figure out how to make big plays in the passing game happen.

Wednesday Links (We Know They’re Late)

Apologies for the lateness of the links.

Amherst- Good article from D3Football.com about brothers Kyle and Ryan Rudolph while WCAX has the highlights from their victory over Middlebury.

Bates- Photos from the game against Williams are up as well as a a preview of Saturday against Wesleyan.

Bowdoin- In addition to winning NESCAC Offensive POY honors, running back Tyler Grant won the New England Football Writers’ Association Division III weekly Golden Helmet award. There is also a preview of this weekend’s game against Hamilton complete with highlights from last year.

 

Trinity- Game preview is up. Thanks to Seven Strong Photos for letting us use the photo below. You can find more photos from Trinity’s games at www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball

2014-10-04 at Hamilton_D7K_1735_462Williams– The Williams website has a preview of this weekend.

 

Bounce Back Time: Stock Report October 6

We know last week we took a drop in production. Much of that was because of a decidedly upsetting uptick in classwork, but excuses won’t cut it. Without a doubt our stock was down last week, but we promise that this week will be different. We went back over the tape, saw some places we could improve on (it involves less procrastinating), and are ready for whatever.

Week three didn’t spring any big upsets on us, but Bates and Bowdoin registered their first wins of the season. Scoring was down around the league in part because of the weather with the Amherst-Middlebury game a slog that ended up hinging on one long Nick Kelly ’17 run.

Stock Report:

Amherst Defense- The Jeffs defense on Saturday stifled the Middlebury attack completely holding them to only 2 yards per play. Defensive lineman Paul Johnson ’17 recorded 2.5 sacks and now leads the NESCAC with 4 on the season. A different player has led Amherst in tackles in each of the first three games. If you still have any doubt about how good Amherst is, consider these statistics. Through three games they have let up two plays of more than 20 yards. One was a 28 yard completion by Bowdoin in the final minute of the fourth quarter when Amherst’s backups were in. The other was a 21 completion by Matt Cannone ’16 to Mark Riley ’16. So essentially only play over 20 yards. The longest running play against Amherst is 14 yards. If the Jeffs can get their offense sorted out, they can beat Wesleyan and Trinity.

Quarterback Mac Caputi ’15 (Bowdoin)- Running back Tyler Grant deservedly took home NESCAC Offensive Player of the Week accolades for his 43 carries, 208 yards, and 4 touchdown performance, but that should not overshadow the play of Caputi. Many had called for his benching after week one and those calls were even stronger after backup Tim Drakeley ’17 gave the offense a shot of energy against Amherst. Head Coach Dave Caputi (Yes, they are father and son) gave the younger Caputi one more chance, and he responded brilliantly. He went 20-25 for 209 yards averaging 8.4 yards per attempt without a touchdown or interception.  That was after he went 33-57 and averaged only 4.1 yards per attempt in his first two games combined. He made the play that the Jumbo defense gave him and also managed to make a couple of plays with his feet that helped extend drives. Another good performance against Hamilton Saturday could lift the Polar Bears to .500.

Head Coach Dave Murray (Hamilton)- The Continentals have lost the first three games under Murray, but he has been getting rave reviews for his handling of the Hamilton team so far. After a tumultuous few years for the Hamilton program, Murray demands respect and hard work, and the Hamilton has responded positively. On Saturday against Trinity the score was only 3-0 at halftime. For the game Trinity only recorded 12 first downs, and the Bantams are an offense that tends to wear teams down and get a lot of those. Chase Rosenberg ’17 has emerged as a quality QB for Hamilton and the receiving corps has done a great job after losing Joe Jensen ’15. It has been a long time since such positivity has been coming from Clinton, but Murray seems to be the real deal.

Stock Down:

Williams- Now it seems long ago, but in the days leading up to the Williams-Trinity game last week, people really believed the Ephs had a chance to score the upset. They followed up that blowout with another loss on the road to a previously winless Bates team. The offense sputtered especially in the second half which was a major reason for why Bates was able to seal the game with a 14 play, 95 yard drive in the fourth quarter. The Bobcats keyed on the running game for Williams holding them to 2.1 yards per attempt. Austin Lommen ’16 has proven to be an upgrade in the passing game but not the massive one that some expected him to be. With Middlebury coming to Williamstown on Saturday, the Ephs have to get back on track.

Quarterback Gabe Harrington ’17 (Colby)- The sophomore had Colby fans excited before the season as he stepped in to lead the Mule offense. He performed admirably in his first game but has seen his statistics regress in the last two weeks. Saturday he completed only 40.5% of his passes and threw two interceptions. The Colby offense has now scored seven points in each of the last three weeks in part because the passing game has stalled. Some of his struggles can be attributed to the strength of the defenses he has faced. Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Trinity are all very good against the pass. And things don’t get any easier when the Mules go on the road to face the hottest defense in the NESCAC- Amherst.

Kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 (Amherst)- In the preseason one of the All-NESCAC picks we felt most confident about was Nwosu because of the strength of his leg and accuracy. So far he has struggled going 1-3 on field goals with both misses coming within 35 yards. On the opening drive for Amherst he missed a 30 yard field goal that helped keep the game tied for a long time. Last season kicking was the difference in the Trinity-Amherst game with the advantage going to the Jeffs. Nwosu has to find his kicking stroke again in order to help an Amherst offense that has done very little so far.

Weekend Preview: September 27

The biggest change a team can make from week to week comes after week 1 and leading into week 2. Nothing can replicate game speed, and after coaches are able to look back at game tape for the first time and make adjustments, teams can look very different. Consider in week 1 last year Williams got blown out by Colby 31-6. Then a week later Trinity needed two A.J. Jones ’14 touchdown receptions in the fourth quarter to keep the Ephs from ending the Trinity home winning streak. More on the Williams-Trinity matchup later.

The overarching story line to watch this week is how teams perform on the road. In our opinion, only one team (Wesleyan at home against Hamilton) can be considered the favorite at home. The last time four road teams won in one weekend was actually this same week two years ago with the exact same slate of games. A home underdog springing an upset would mean a disturbance in the early season hierarchy, even if it is a momentary blip.

Three to Watch

1. Quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams)- I know that we focus a lot on Lommen and Williams prospects for improvement, but this is the week that we really learn how far Lommen can take the Ephs. Last week he was able to lean on a great defensive effort and running attack against Bowdoin. He was efficient going 18-27  for 184 yards and one touchdown. Still Trinity will make him do a lot more in order to beat them. They have the strength to slow down running back Alex Scyorcurka ’14 enough to make Lommen have to make throws. It is clear that Lommen has great chemistry with his high school teammate Steven Kiesel. He will need to find the open receiver as Kiesel will likely face tight coverage from either Mike Mancini ’15 or Brian Dones ’17.

2. Linebacker Addison Pierce ’17 (Middlebury)- The Panther defense rose to the occasion last week especially in the run game, and Pierce was a player who had a breakout game. He played a lot freshman year finishing fifth on the team in tackles, but last week was special. He totaled ten tackles including three and a half TFLs (tackles for loss), equal to his total TFLs for all of 2013. The Panthers got penetration into the backfield all day from their linebackers stopping Kyle Gibson and co. before they could get momentum. This week is another interesting matchup for the Midd defense against a Colby offense that actually ran the ball effectively against Trinity.

3. Running back Ivan Reese ’17 (Bates)- Last week Amherst shut down the inside running game for Bates holding Reese to only 19 yards on 10 carries. In fairness, Amherst was perfectly designed to shut down the interior given all the talent up front on defense. 19 yards should be by far the least amount of yards that Reese gets in any game. The interior of the Tufts defense should not present the same problems Amherst did so look for Reese to be fed the ball early and often in the home opener for Bates. The offense needs to improve on their execution from week one in order not to waste another great performance from the defense.

Austin Lommen '16 in action against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Austin Lommen ’16 in action against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The Picks

Game of the Week- Trinity (1-0) at Williams (1-0)

Williams fans are riding high after opening their new field with a thumping of Bowdoin. A victory this week would put them into a tizzy. The Bantams are feeling pretty good themselves after taking it to Colby in the second half to run away with the win. Our writers Sean Meekins ’15 and Carson Kenney ’15, both Trinity students, put Williams above Trinity in their power rankings. Maybe it was just a psychological play to fire up the Bantams, but the point remains that after week one, this matchup got a little more interesting.

As we mentioned above, Williams almost shocked Trinity in Hartford last year. The stats tell us this was not the result of any fluke luck. The teams had essentially the same amount of yards, first downs, yards per play, and penalties. The difference was Williams’ four turnovers to Trinity’s one. The play of the game came when Brian Dones ’17 picked off Tom Murphy ’15 in the final minute to set up the winning touchdown for Trinity.

Lommen has to avoid making those type of mistakes for Williams to win. Williams will make a strong commitment to running the ball especially given how Carl Lipani ’17 was able to run for 133 yards last week. Some of Williams biggest plays in week one came on screens and draws where they were able to give Scyocurka and Jean Luc Etienne ’15 space to work with. The experienced Trinity linebackers will likely snuff that type of play out meaning the Ephs will have to manufacture big plays down the field.

On the other side of the ball the decisive matchup is between the Trinity offensive line and the Williams defensive front seven. James Howe ’16 will need to get help from his cohorts which might not include defensive tackle Adam Datema ’15 this week. Chudi Iregbulem ’15 and company enjoyed success mainly in the second half after wearing down Colby because Trinity held the ball for 37 minutes. The Williams defense has to make sure Trinity does not get into a rhythm running the ball. These are two teams similar in ethos that have seen every game between them since 2006 decided by eight points or less.

Prediction: Trinity 22 over Williams 17

Middlebury (0-1) at Colby (0-1)- These are two teams both coming off tough losses that look very comparable. The Mules were feeling good at halftime against Trinity down only a safety and getting the ball to start the second half. Then things fell apart pretty quickly and Colby ended up losing 32-7. Middlebury had a chance to tie Wesleyan at the end of regulation before a near blocked punt turned into a game ending roughing the kicker penalty. Colby has to do a better job of not letting up the big play, whether that’s on offense or defense. How the Colby secondary plays against a Middlebury offense that outgained Wesleyan last week will be the difference.

Prediction: Middlebury 31 over Colby 23

Amherst (1-0) at Bowdoin (0-1)- Quick disclaimer/heads up: I am doing the color commentary for this game on the Bowdoin webcast through NSN. Bowdoin could take few positives away from the game against Williams. Expect them to open things up more on offense to keep Amherst off balance because running against the Jeffs is very difficult. Amherst has to cut down on the turnovers that helped Bates almost beat them last week. Keeping Alex Berluti ’17 in the pocket is a must for the Polar Bears. If he escapes and makes one player miss, he can easily rip off a 30 yard run. Bowdoin always seems to play Amherst tough especially in the first half, but it will be tough for them to make enough plays to win.

Prediction: Amherst 20 over Bowdoin 6

Bates (0-1) at Tufts (1-0)- The Jumbos were able to celebrate their first win in four years last weekend, and it will be interesting to see how the team plays this week. Preparation against Bates is crucial, and if Tufts spent too long in the glow of their victory they will be in trouble tomorrow. The Bates running game should get more traction this week than it did against Amherst.  This is a must win game for Bates to gain momentum before they face Williams and Wesleyan at home in back to back weeks. Expect the Bobcat defense to really clamp down and frustrate the Tufts offense.

Prediction: Bates 23 over Tufts 13

Hamilton (0-1) at Wesleyan (1-0)- The Cardinals blitzkrieged their first four opponents in 2013, and Hamilton was no exception. This game was over last year after the first drive of the third quarter when LaDarius Drew broke off a 76 yard touchdown run to put Wesleyan up 28-0. It is still unclear if Drew will play this week after missing last week due to injury. Chase Rosenberg ’17 will put the ball in the air a lot again this week for the Continentals, but expect the Wesleyan defense to pick a couple of those passes off.

Prediction: Wesleyan 31 over Hamilton 10

Last week: 5-0

Season: 5-0

NESCAC Summer Star Watch: Where Is Your Favorite Player this Summer?

Thankfully, baseball doesn’t end when the kids leave campus in May. The majority of NESCAC ballplayers continue to lace up the cleats through the sweltering heat of June and July and, if they’re lucky enough to be on a championship contender, into the dog days of August. A handful of NESCAC stars are taking the field in some of New England’s premier intercollegiate summer baseball leagues. To save you the trouble of pouring over rosters to find out who’s playing where, we’ve done that deed for you, and combed through the rosters of every team in the Cape Cod League, New England Collegiate Baseball League and Futures Collegiate Baseball League.

Cape Cod Report:

Donnie Cimino ’15, Wesleyan, Chatham A’s

Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics
Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics

After two years atop the NESCAC batting average leaderboard in 2012 and 2013 when Cimino, a two-sport stud at Wesleyan, batted .400 and .399, earning him a profile in the New England Baseball Journal before this season began, the righty slugger slumped to a measly .329 this season, good for 15th in the league (read the sarcasm here). Cimino didn’t hit for as much power as in years past, slugging .376, but still posted an impressive 16:15 K:BB ratio and swiped 15 bags in 44 games and his team made a deep postseason run after claiming a NESCAC title. Cimino landed a temporary contract with the Chatham A’s for the summer, and has played in three of the team’s first four games, but gone hitless in six at bats.
Hopefully, Cimino can start hitting enough that they’ll decide to keep him around in Chatham, but even if he’s only there for a brief stint the experience against some of the country’s elite amateur talent will help him next season.

Guy Davidson ’16, Wesleyan, Harwich Mariners

Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics
Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics

Cimino’s teammate, shortstop Guy Davidson, is also playing in the Cape League this summer, but for Chatham opponent Harwich. Davidson is from South Harwich himself, so the chance to play for the Mariners must be a thrill. Davidson was a .273/.359/.364 hitter this year for Wesleyan, his on base percentage bolstered by 17 walks.
The Mariners are 4-0 and have the best hitting team in the Cape League to-date. Davidson has only seen one plate appearance so far, in which he struck out. 

 

NECBL Report:

Tim Superko ’17, Tufts, New Bedford Bay Sox

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Superko was dominant in his first year in the league, registering a 2.64 ERA in 58.0 innings while striking out 51 hitters.
The hurler has already taken the mound in two starts for the New Bedford Bay Sox, but neither start has gone as expected. Superko surrendered eight runs (five earned) to the Valley Blue Sox on Saturday, walking four, striking out four and allowing seven hits. That outing was better than his first back on June 6, when Plymouth roughed up the lefty for six runs (four earned) in 3.1 innings. Hopefully Superko can return to the level of dominance he displayed during NESCAC play.

Futures Report:

Rob DiFranco ’16, Bates, North Shore Navigators

Courtesy of Bates Athletics
Courtesy of Bates Athletics

DiFranco was a valuable reliever for a surprising Bates squad in 2014, leading the team in appearances (15) and K/9 (12.15). DiFranco has already gotten a good deal of work for the 3-8 North Shore Navigators. The 6’1″ righty is 1-0 over 7.0 IP in four games with a 1.28 ERA and eight K’s to go along with zero walks. DiFranco’s improved control is a good sign and an improvement over his school season when he walked 10 hitters in 20.0 innings.

 

 

Soren Hanson ’16, Colby, Martha’s Vineyard Sharks

Courtesy of Colby Athletics
Courtesy of Colby Athletics

Hanson is one of three NESCAC players on the roster for the Martha’s Vineyard Sharks. Hanson was part of a talented Colby rotation this year that will be returning in full for 2015. He, Scott Goldberg ’15 and Greg Ladd ’15 all had ERAs under 3.00 for the Mules. Hanson has only pitched in relief so far for the Sharks, and has garnered a 7.71 ERA in 4.2 innings over three appearances, although his 8:1 K:BB ratio inspires hope for a turnaround soon.

 

 

Jack Roberts ’17 and Jack Cloud ’17, Williams, Martha’s Vineyard Sharks

Jack Cloud Courtesy of Williams Athletics
Jack Cloud
Courtesy of Williams Athletics
Jack Roberts Courtesy of Williams Athletics
Jack Roberts
Courtesy of Williams Athletics

Roberts burst onto the scene this year, and was near the top of the league in hitting through the first couple weeks. The lefty ended the year with a .302 average, and along with his classmate Cloud, who ended the 2014 season with a league-best .402 average, is playing for the Sharks this summer, as well. Roberts has gotten more at bats in the early going and has taken advantage of the opportunity, going 8-24 with three extra-base hits. Meanwhile, Cloud is just 2-10, and with three starting outfielders currently hitting .350 or better for Martha’s Vineyard, he will need to hit in the at bats he’s given if he hopes to earn more playing time.

Andrew David ’16, Tufts, Brockton Rox

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Tufts had such an incredible pitching staff this year that David almost always went overlooked, but the sophomore was pretty good, posting a 3.60 ERA in 10 games (four starts). He’ll be pitching for the Brockton Rox in the summer of 2014, and has dealt so far. After four shutout innings in his first relief appearance, David earned a start on June 12 in which he threw six innings of one run ball and got the win. David has 10 K’s in 10 IP and no walks.

 

 

Mekae Hyde ’15, Bates, Old Orchard Beach Raging Tide

Courtesy of Bates Athletics
Courtesy of Bates Athletics

The 5’10” catcher was a .312 hitter for Bates this spring, but has slumped to a 4-29 start for the Old Orchard Beach Raging Tide. Phenomenal name aside, Old Orchard has the league’s worst record so far, and the other two catchers on the roster are younger than Hyde and haven’t hit yet this summer either, so Hyde should get plenty of chances to get his bat going.

 

 

Sam Warren ’16, Bates, Torrington Titans

Courtesy of Bates Athletics
Courtesy of Bates Athletics

Hyde’s battery mate, Warren was a dominant reliever for the Bobcats this season with a 1.93 ERA in 18.2 innings. What’s more, Warren posted a .302/.388/.442 triple-slash line in 86 at bats while playing the outfield. Warren has hit just .226 so far for the Titans (with a worrisome 11 strikeouts in 31 at bats), but has been great as the Titans’ closer, allowing no hits and two walks while ringing up two batters and earning two saves.

 

 

Mike Odenwaelder ’15, Amherst, Torrington Titans

Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Courtesy of Amherst Athletics

The NESCAC’s Player of the Year joins Warren with the Titans this summer. The Amherst slugger is off to a hot start. In 42 at bats over 11 games, the righty has 15 hits (.357 average), three doubles, one triple, one homer and six stolen bases. Don’t forget that Odenwaelder would likely be just as successful as Warren if Torrington decided to use him out of the pen. He had a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 innings for Amherst.

 

 

Kyle Slinger ’15, Tufts, Worcester Bravehearts

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Slinger won the NESCAC Pitcher of the Year award after leading the conference in innings pitched (76.0) and ERA (1.18). Slinger’s dominance has continued with the Worcester Bravehearts, as he has a 1.68 ERA in two starts. Slinger started on Worcester’s opening day, tossing just four innings, but getting Odenwaelder to fly out and hit into a fielder’s choice in two at bats.

 

 

Nate Pajka ’15, Bates, Worcester Bravehearts

Courtesy of Bates Athletics
Courtesy of Bates Athletics

Pajka, the Bates outfielder, joins Slinger on the Bravehearts this summer. Pajka was a .261 hitter at school this spring, but has exploded for eights in 19 at bats so far for Worcester, tallying three doubles and two triples already.

 

 

 

That sums up our early season look-in to some of New England’s most competitive summer leagues. There are some other great leagues out there, of course, and plenty of NESCAC ballplayers are in leagues around the country. If we missed anyone in these leagues, or you want to let us know about a player we should keep an eye on elsewhere around the nation, please do so in the comments section.

Play ball!