Football – Page 6 – Nothing But NESCAC

Bold Prediction, Cotton; Week 8 Game of the Week

Week 8 Game of the Week Preview: Amherst @ Trinity—This is It

For the second year in a row, Trinity and Amherst will meet in the penultimate game of the week to determine the league champion. Amherst, with a win, will clinch the NESCAC championship with one game to play, while a Trinity win will put them in the driver’s seat and means they just need to beat Wesleyan in Week 9. In a league with very crowded standings and unbalanced scheduling, this is as close as it gets.

And from a football standpoint, this game is also going to be as close as it gets. Amherst and its league-leading defense (8.6 points allowed per game) will be tasked with stopping Trinity and its league-leading offense (41.1 points scored per game). Trinity might just be the underdog this game, and who can remember the last time they were underdogs in Hartford? The crowd is going to be rowdy and this game should be a thriller. Let’s get into it.

Keys for Amherst: Rushing Attack

Jack Hickey has had a solid season to this point but needs to jump start the Amherst offense in Hartford.

It’s no secret that Amherst’s 7-0 record have been built on its defense. Their defense has allowed them to keep the risks to a minimum on a conservative offensive gameplan. QB Ollie Eberth ’20 is only 8^th in the league amongst all QBs who have started every game with 22.5 passing attempts a game, and the only QB who is yet to a throw an interception. They need to keep up with Trinity and their offense to let Eberth continue to play his style and the way they’ll do that will be through the RB tandem of Biafra Okoronkwo ’21 and Jack Hickey ’19. The duo are 4^th and 8^th in the league in rushing, and the biggest reason why the Mammoths as a team rank 2^nd in ground game. A large reason this has been a tandem effort, however, is because Hickey missed 3 games in the middle of the season that allowed Okoronkwo to breakout. He returned last week against Tufts and carried the ball 20 times for 89 yards and a score, while Okoronkwo only logged nine, but this coaching staff clearly has faith in both. Whatever combination they use is going to need to get it done.

Keys for Trinity: Aggression and Playing Ahead

For the Bantams, this needs to be just another game from an offensive standpoint. Yes this Amherst defense is the talk of the town, but they should be just as worried about Trinity’s offense. Trinity’s only loss came in Week 3 at Williams, when the Ephs held them to a season-low 16 points and season-low 436 yards of offense (not a typo). In that game, the Bants fell down 21-9 halfway through the 3^rd quarter and didn’t score again until a defensive breakdown with 1:31 left for a Koby Schofer ’20 63 yard touchdown catch. The reason for this drought is that Trinity abandoned the passing game in favor of throwing up prayers to their deep threat duo of Schofer and WR Jonathan Girard ’21, completing neglecting All-League RB Max Chipouras ’19. Yes they have changed quarterbacks since that game and yes they’ve been outstanding since, but they need to strike the right balance in their run-pass play calling, and they’d be better off scoring early (duh).

Amherst X-Factor:

LB/DE Andrew Yamin ‘19

No need to get cute here. Biggest game of the season, maybe the biggest game of your career? Need your best players to show up, and for Amherst that is LB/DE Andrew Yamin ’19. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year looks determined to repeat, leading the league in both sacks (7.5) and tackles for loss (13.5). He’s going to have his hands full with this offense, most specifically QB Seamus Lambert ’22 and RB Max Chipouras ’19. The best way to stop a passing attack is to not let them throw the ball, and the best way for Amherst to do that is for Yamin to add on to his 7.5 sacks in this game. He’s going to be called upon in a lot of different ways to stop this offense on all fronts, but if anyone can do it, it’s going to be Yamin. If he’s not all over the box score, it’s not a good sign.

Trinity X-Factor:

QB Seamus Lambert ‘22

I know Lambert played in plenty of big games at his high school alma mater, Brooks, chasing ISL conference and NEPSAC titles, but this is a different challenge altogether. Picking the QB as X-Factor is super lame, I get it, and my apologies to all of the talented Trinity guys who will no doubt contribute on Saturday, but every single eye in the league will be on the rookie signal caller in Hartford. Lambert has appeared out of nowhere essentially—I can’t remember anyone making such a splash in their freshman year, especially not in the middle of the season. Despite his predecessor QB Jordan Vazzano ’21 leading them to a 4-1 start with plenty of firepower, Lambert was thrown into the starting lineup following the biggest win of their season against Tufts, presumably for accuracy issues. All Lambert has done in his two games as starter is go a combined 31-40, 459 yards, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception, while also adding 131 yards with his feet, leading his team to 98 combined points in 2 games. Now you may say the 48 points against Bowdoin isn’t too impressive, but the 48 against Middlebury certainly is. The bottom line is, we’re about to find out what Seamus Lambert is made of. If he comes out throwing flames again? Well it might be back-to-back-to-back for Trinity.

Everything Else:

The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. Trinity’s offense vs. Amherst’s defense. But did you know that Trinity’s defense actually leads the league in yards allowed with just 204.9 yards a game, against a slightly stronger schedule? Because they do. This insane Trinity offense has completely overshadowed just how great their defense has been, a defense that has only allowed 10.6 points a game, just 3 more than this vaunted Amherst D. But that for all we hear about this Amherst defense, and that QB Ollie Eberth is just a game manager, Amherst is third in the league with 26.9 points a game, third in the league, more than Williams and Tufts, and second in the league in yards with 391.1 a game? There’s a lot that we don’t realize about these teams. This game doesn’t have to be played in the teens for Amherst to win or played in the 30s for Trinity to win. There are so many different outcomes here and that is what makes it so compelling.

This should make you think that the Bantams are in control, even when they’re not.

But with that being said, it’s hard to overlook what the numbers are telling us. Trinity is outscoring its opponents by 30 points a game. In a league where we really only get to base opinions and rankings of the top teams off of style, no stat speaks louder than that. Their defense is essentially as good as Amherst’s, and their offense is on a different level. Between Lambert, Chipouras, Schofer, and Girard, you have the league’s top rusher, the two top receivers, and the QB who would probably be the top passer if he had started since day 1—and they might both have been 7-0 if that was the case. Amherst is really good, but I think Trinity just has too much talent. And the game is at Trinity, where the last two NESCAC championships reside? It’s looking like a three peat.

Final Score: Trinity 28, Amherst 13

Why Throw the Ball? Week 7 Power Rankings

Week 7 Power Rankings

Week 7 wasn’t the most exciting of weeks, but it helped set up an unofficial league championship game in Week 8 between undefeated Amherst and one-loss Trinity. If Amherst wins, then their final game against Williams is solely for Little Three purposes, as the Mammoths will have already clinched the NESCAC championship. If Trinity wins, they’ll also have to secure a win in their final game against Wesleyan in order to remain at one loss and keep the tiebreaker over Amherst. A lot is at stake at the top of the league, but we’re also getting some excitement at the bottom, too, as Hamilton and the Maine schools are finally getting to play each other to decided which team is the best of the rest. Take a look at where each team falls as we head into the deciding weeks:

(1) 1. Amherst (7-0)

At this point LB Andrew Yamin ’19 is looking like a shoe-in for defensive player of the year

Defense led the way on Saturday, as the Mammoths were able to secure their biggest win of the year. Andrew Yamin & company did a great job keeping the Jumbos offense off the field for the majority of the game. In fact, Tufts possessed the ball for just 21 minutes the entire game. 21 minutes!! No wonder they only scored 13 points…they only had the ball for a third of the game. QB Ollie Eberth ’20 barely even had to do anything (14-26, 150 yards) because the defense did such an outstanding job,including leading tackler John Callahan and Andrew Sommer. There really wasn’t a ton of offense in this game on either side, but Amherst’s rushing attack kept the clock moving and provided just enough scoring to win the game. This sets up what will essentially be the league championship game at Trinity in Week 8. Keep an eye out for our game of the week preview for this matchup later in the week.

(2) 2. Trinity (6-1)

Trinity put on about as dominant a performance you’ll see with a 48-0 annihilation of Middlebury. They sent out freshman QB Seamus Lambert ’22 for his second consecutive start and he was an incredibly efficient 9-11 for 179 yards and 4 touchdowns. In an effort to follow his predecessor’s model, he completed 8 of his 9 passes to either Koby Schofer ’20 or Jonathan Girard ’21 and they each had two TD catches. The primary offensive attack in this one was actually on the ground for the Bantams, where RB Max Chipouras ’19 and RB Spencer Lockwood ’22 combined for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns on 48 total carries. I’m not sure what the game plan was for the Panthers, but the Bantam secondary held them to 36 passing yards on just 4 completions. What an effort by the defense. Trinity has been on fire lately, and we’ll find out just how good they are when they host the league’s top team on Saturday with a chance to step back into first place.

(3) 3. Tufts (5-2)

The Jumbos had a chance to make things really interesting at the top of the standings, but they fell just short. They battled, though, and actually held Amherst to their lowest point total of the season (19 – tied with Week 1 at Bates). The defense did an excellent job keeping dual-threat QB Ollie Eberth in check both through the air and on the ground, but the offense could only muster 13 points. QB Ryan McDonald threw for just 137 yards while adding 2 interceptions, and 25 of his 33 rushing yards came on one touchdown run. I guess this is our way of finding out just how good the Amherst defense really is. It’s been an exciting year for this Tufts team that I would argue has already exceeded expectations, and they’re left playing for pride in their last two matchups with Colby and Middlebury in the final weeks.

(4) 4. Williams (5-2)

A 27-17 win over Hamilton wasn’t their most impressive performance of the season, but a win is a win. The offense has had better games, but they did just enough to win behind an 11 for 24, 2-touchdown effort from QB Bobby Maimaron ’21. LB TJ Rothmann ’21 led the team in tackles despite playing with a sprained jaw, making a bid for NESCAC’s gutsiest player in 2018. Defense led the way as the Ephs picked off Hamilton QB Kenny Gray 4 times and allowed him to complete just 13 of his 37 pass attempts. Freshman RB Carter Begel ’22 did a decent enough job in the absence of RB TJ Dozier ’21, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and running for 108 yards and a touchdown. Despite being out of title contention, the Ephs still have a great chance to take home their first Little Three championship since 2010. It starts this weekend when they host Wesleyan.

(6) 5. Wesleyan (4-3)

RB Glenn Smith ’21 did a terrific job out of the backfield against Bowdoin

Wesleyan continued their streaky 2018 season with a 24-0 rout of Bowdoin. Due to the poor weather there wasn’t much offense around the league this weekend, but a special note should be made for the Cardinals’ defensive performance. They held the Polar Bears to 100 yards of total offense (80 passing, 20 rushing) and only 6 first downs the entire game. In fact, Bowdoin didn’t get the ball over midfield until less than 4 minutes were left to play in the 4^thquarter, then proceeded to turn it over on downs four plays later. RB Glenn Smith ’21 had his best game of the season, carrying 20 times for 105 yards and a touchdown. QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 just had to serve as the Ollie Eberth-type game facilitator, mostly handing the ball off to keep the clock moving and only throwing when he needed it. This was a dominant performance by Wesleyan (albeit against a very weak team) and they will look to replicate it in their matchup with Williams in Week 8.

(5) 6. Middlebury (4-3)

It’s never fun to be on the wrong side of a 48-0 blowout, but when looking at the box score you have to wonder what happened to the Panthers. They were by no means the favorite on the road against one of the league’s elite, but 48-0?? Two weeks after they took down a Williams team who had been playing some of their best football? I don’t know exactly what’s going on over there, but something isn’t right. This is a team that usually has their sights set on a league championship, and they couldn’t muster up more than 73 yards of offense in a game where their opponent put up more than 500? The Panthers have Hamilton and Tufts left on the schedule, and they’ve got to get it together or they’re in danger of finishing below .500 for the first time since 2005.

(8) 7. Colby (2-5)

The Mules rattled off their second consecutive victory in convincing fashion over Bates in Week 7. Colby (the writer, not the school) touched on this last week, but the Mules have a strong case for being the second best team in the league after beating Hamilton who beat Wesleyan who beat Middlebury who beat Williams who beat Trinity. If that’s not enough of a reason, I don’t know what is. All jokes aside, Colby (the school, not the writer) looked seriously impressive against the Bobcats this past weekend and it didn’t take a multi-faceted offense to beat them. RB Jake Schwern ’19 carried the ball 40 times for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns, accounting for over 70% of Colby’s total offense. The defense did their part and the Mules took home their first CBB victory and their first over Bates in 5 years. They’ll travel to Tufts this weekend before they host Bowdoin in their final game of the season.

(7) 8. Hamilton (2-5)

Hamilton didn’t play a terrible game against Williams, but the way this game ended up they could’ve had a real shot at winning. QB Kenny Gray ’20 threw interceptions in 4 of the team’s last 5 possessions sealing the win for the Ephs. Prior to this string of consecutive interceptions, the game was still very much within reach. The Continentals simply weren’t able to put together a few strong drives when they needed it, and they were handed the loss. A noteworthy performance came from DB Colby Jones ’19 who had 13 tackles including one for a loss, and added the team’s lone interception. Hamilton hosts Middlebury this weekend, and given how streaky these teams have been anything could happen so keep an eye on the score from upstate New York on Saturday.

(9) 9. Bates (0-7)

RB Liam Spillane ’21 accounted for nearly half of the Bobcats’ total yards

Things went from bad to worse for the Bobcats as they not only lost to Colby 21-6, but starting QB Brendan Costa ’21 left the game in the 2^ndquarter with an injury. The severity of this injury is unclear, but this would be a huge blow for Bates given that Costa has been responsible for nearly all of the team’s offense this season. Playing in the snow doesn’t lend itself to throwing the ball very much, so it’s a bit disappointing that the Bobcats weren’t able to stop or even slow down the one-man rushing attack of the Mules given that they pretty much knew it would be a run play every time. You’d think they’d know what was coming since 45 of Colby’s 62 offensive plays were run plays, but what do I know? Bates takes on a Bowdoin team next week that just lost their 24^thstraight game, so the Bobcats need to get their act together quickly to avoid ending up on the wrong side of history.

(10) 10. Bowdoin (0-7)

There really isn’t much left to say about Bowdoin at this point. Every week they go out there against teams that are better than them and, predictably, they lose. QB Austin McCrum ’21 has been a disappointment this year and the defense is last in about every category. The Polar Bears haven’t won a game since November 14^th, 2015 and at this point you have to wonder if the streak is somewhat flukey. I mean, how long can this go on? I don’t know what the longest losing streak in NESCAC history is, but I have to imagine they’re getting close. Coach Wells and his squad have their best chances at taking home a win against Bates and Colby in the final two weeks, but if not then the streak will live on another year.

Two Teams Left: Week 7 Stock Report

Stock Up:

NESCAC Championship Game: With the incoming game this weekend featuring Amherst and Trinity, we have just about as close to a league championship game that we will ever get. While the Bantams do have one loss, incurred at the hands of the streaky Williams team, with a win over the Mammoths, they would jump up into first place and would have control of their own fate, while Amherst would remain undefeated with a win and would clinch the NESCAC championship.

Coach Cosgrove and the Mules: The Colby Mules just keep doing it. They knocked off Bates easily this past weekend, reaching two wins and capturing an early lead in the CBB race. Freshman QB Matt Hersch has had flashes of potential throughout the season, but RB Jake Schwern really had himself a day this past weekend. He rushed for an absurd 226 yards and three touchdowns, accounting for all of the Colby points and nearly all of their yards. The secondary also shut the Bobcats passing game down stone cold and denied any attempt to make an impact from their talented QB who had his stock rated upwards last week. Costa threw for just eight yards before being lifted from the contest and Colby racked up over 100 more offensive yards than their opponent. Patrick Yale and the secondary are going to put up their best fight against the Jumbos this weekend, although I’m not going so far as to say they will win in Medford. They might keep it close, but their eye should really be on week nine’s game against Bowdoin to capture the CBB crown.

Ben Weisel ’21 and the rest of the Mules have to by hyped by their two consecutive wins. One more and its a streak.

The Power of the Undefeated: Amherst football is alone at the top and the favorite to win the crown, regardless of Trinity’s convincing win over Middlebury. Their defense is nearly unstoppable and their 13 points allowed this past weekend are a season high if you can believe that. Andrew Sommer and Andrew Yamin are a terrifying duo for any offense to stare down, and whichever QB Trinity uses this weekend will be in for a rude welcoming into their first game against the Mammoths.

Sock Down:

Panther Pride: There isn’t a whole lot of good to say here, Midd fans. Nobody could get any offense going. QB Will Jernigan may have a thumb injury, the offense couldn’t get the ball to their playmaker Conrado Banky who didn’t have a catch for the first time basically ever, and nobody averaged more than 2.5 yards per carry on the ground. The Midd team had about half of the snaps on offense that they usually do and didn’t even make it to 100 total yards of offense compared to over 500 from Trinity. While they were an underdog in this game, it’s safe to say that they didn’t come close to covering the spread on this 48 point loss.

For the love of god, please, somebody, get the ball to Conrad Banky.

The Race for the Crown: Although we have an awesome matchup between Trinity and Amherst on the way this weekend, the other games in the conference mean little else other than for pride. After Tufts and Middlebury fell to Amherst and Trinity, respectively, it basically narrowed the race to two teams. Williams gave us all hope for a multiple horse race in the beginning of the year when they knocked off the Bantams, but injuries and inconsistent play have dragged them down throughout the season in their losses to Midd and Tufts—both upsets. Tufts has over performed but just didn’t quite have the depth on defense to hold off Amherst. It would be amazing if the NESCAC had playoffs like a normal conference to eliminate the drastic effect of one outlier performance, but I digress.

Best Offense is a Good Defense: Game of the Week 10/27/18

Game of the Week: Amherst vs Tufts

Overview: This game of the week features two high profile NESCAC teams going head to head. Both Tufts and Amherst are title contenders and their changes may hinge on their performance this weekend. Amherst has absolutely rolled through their opponents this season, winning each of their contests by double digits. Tufts has also fared well, their only blemish being a loss to an extremely talented Trinity team. This game will decide whether Amherst maintains their control of the conference or whether there will be a 3 team tie for first heading into week 8. All eyes should be on this game this weekend.

Keys for Tufts: Tufts’ Rush Defense

In their last two games the Jumbos have given up a combined 7 touchdowns on the ground, which is an unlikely statistic for a 5-1 team. While their defense has been able to keep the lesser teams in the conference at bay with ease, against Williams and Trinity it was made clear that Tufts does have a few flaws. Amherst is second in the league with 15 rushing touchdowns so this is not an error the Jumbos can overlook. Amherst QB Ollie Eberth has been fantastic not just in the air but on the ground as well so the Tufts secondary will need to be on high alert at all times. This game is make or break for Tufts so they need their defense to lock it down and keep their chances to win and their chances for a title alive.

Yamin and Holt are going to be making their case for defensive POY this weekend.

Keys for Amherst: All They Need is Consistency

While Amherst’s undefeated record is a feat in and of itself, their strength of schedule has been one of the weaker ones in the conference to this point. Their opponents combined record is 10-26 and they have only faced 2 opponents with winning records. While they have clearly proved that they are more than capable of getting a dominant victory over the lower tier teams in the conference, Tufts will be one of the first true tests that the Mammoths will face this season. Amherst needs to prove to the rest of the league, and to themselves, that they not only can hang with the top teams in the league but that they are the top team in the league. A win against Tufts will not only silence any doubters, but also put them in an almost sure-fire position to take the crown at the end of the year. If the Mammoths are able to play consistent to how they have thus far this year, they should have no problem notching their 7th straight victory.

Tufts X-Factor:

LB Greg Holt

Holt has been the heart and soul of the Tufts defense. He leads the team in tackles per game (8.7) by a significant margin, leads the team in forced fumbles (1) and tackles for loss (7) as well as being second on the team in sacks (2.5). Holt terrorizes quarterbacks and linemen alike, always seeming to find a gap in the line. Holt and the rest of the Jumbo defense will need to be on top of their game in order to stop a red hot team like Amherst. If Holt is able to keep up his impressive performance then it will not be an easy day for the Amherst offense.

Amherst X-Factor:

TB Biafra Okoronkwo

Okoronkwo has been an extremely consistent piece of the Amherst offense. With Tufts’ aforementioned rush defense struggles, Amherst will need Okoronkwo to be on top of his game to exploit that weakness. The Junior has run for 83.5 yards per game, which is good for best on the team as well as second best in the NESCAC. He has also tacked on 4 touchdown in Amherst’s 6 games and if he is able to find the back of the endzone against Tufts it will help Amherst’s chances to win exponentially. Nobody has been able to slow down Okoronkwo this year and I would not expect Tufts to be able to shut him down. Okoronkwo is a dominating presence is the backfield and the Tufts defense will need to be on high alert every time that he touches the ball.

Everything else:

In essence, this is it for Tufts. Win and they have an opportunity to overtake Amherst for the league lead but a loss will have them chasing silver (but nothin’s wrong with silver). The Jumbos will need to throw everything that they have at Amherst in order to take down a team that up until now seems to be completely overpowering all of their opponents. Everything is on the line for Tufts so don’t rule anything out on Saturday. For Amherst, this weekend is a chance for them to prove that a double digit win is just another day at the office. There is nothing to prove that anyone in the NESCAC can beat them but there is also nothing to prove that they are significantly better than Trinity or Tufts. They will have the opportunity to disprove that narrative and on their home field nonetheless. Amherst students should get wild and rowdy Saturday afternoon because this is by far their biggest game to date. That is until the Bantams roll into town next weekend.

Score Prediction: Amherst 23 Tufts 14

Scrapping to Stay Alive: Week 7 Weekend Preview

Weekend Preview

With each passing week the conference standings are getting clearer and clearer. With only 3 games remaining, 3 true contenders remain. Our other 6 are left to fight for the scraps—some for regional pride, some for the sake of nothing but wins and losses, and a few in hopes of a Week 9 Miracle. This week doesn’t appear to have huge implications outside of Amherst and Tufts, but it has implications nonetheless.

Bowdoin @ Wesleyan

Neither of these teams is going to come into this game feeling very good about themselves. Bowdoin, besides the 23 obvious reasons, was served a 48-6 pasting by Trinity, while Wesleyan was downright embarrassed by their Little Three rival Amherst 33-3, on their own turf. Wesleyan obviously hasn’t had the year it was hoping for, unable to account for WR Mike Breuler ‘18’s departure, but I don’t think they’ve dipped to ‘lose to Bowdoin’ levels of bad. Their defense is strong but for Bowdoin it continues to be all about quarterback play. Austin McCrum ’21 just hasn’t been able to get anything going, most notably in last week’s 17-38, 99 yards, and 4 INT performance. You could make an argument to go back to Griff Stalcup ’21, but he’s been their best WR since switching positions. It’s a lose-lose for Bowdoin and as long as these struggles continue, their chances of winning outside of the state of Maine will be stagnant. Wesleyan shouldn’t feel confident enough in themselves to focus all of their energy on their Week 8 visit to Williams, but they can channel that energy into running up the score on Bowdoin in hopes of building some momentum. QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 will look like a better version of himself this week, and the Cardinals will roll.

Final Score: Wesleyan 38, Bowdoin 9

Colby @ Bates

The Bobcats are going to come in hot looking to lay the hammer like Mac Jackson used to, but Colby is the only team with a win in this matchup!

Finally some CBB! Love me some CBB. Two of the three rivals in Maine square off this week as they open up the annual battle for bragging rights and an extra edge in in-state recruiting. Bates is still winless, and Colby grabbed their first win last week behind the increasingly emerging arm of QB Matt Hersch ’22, who is ever so quietly beginning to pop up in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Hersch threw for 288 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT on 27-39 in their 23-21 win over Hamilton, his third straight week of 200+ yards and a score. Colby’s offensive line continues to be porous, allowing another 5 sacks last week. They need to protect Hersch to win this game. It would be easy to take the hot hand and the team that finally won a game, but despite this I’m taking Bates. The Bobcats have owned this rivalry and the CBB as a whole, as last year they became the first team since Colby in 1988-1992 to win it four years in a row. It’s a home game, and these seniors are not going to be the class that ends this streak. I’m not really sure how, but they’re going to find a way to win this game.

Final Score: Bates 27, Colby 20

Middlebury @ Trinity

Midd will look to bring pressure to whatever QB suits up for Trinity this weekend.

This could be a fun one. Middlebury has really turned it around the last few weeks, although a one point win against Bates might not show it. The Will Jernigan ’21 train has left the station, and their spread offense has clicked. Jernigan had his best collegiate game as a passer last week, going 17-26 for 266 yards 3 TDs and 1 INT. But opposing them in Hartford is Trinity and the home of the best offense in the league so far. Trinity switched it up under center last week, opting for QB Seamus Lambert instead of Jordan Vazzano ’21, and it worked as well as they could have hoped, with Lambert going 22-29 for 280 yards and 3 TDs. WRs Koby Schofer and Jonathan Girard reeled in a combined 14 of those balls for over 200 of those yards, announcing that they clearly don’t care who’s throwing it to them. I would imagine Lambert’s accuracy is what got him the starting job and it’s going to keep him there. It’s going to be tough to pick a team that allowed 34 points to Bates, and while Midd has turned things around, they’re not going to beat the Bantams in a shootout.

Final Score: Trinity 42, Middlebury 24

Williams @ Hamilton

Hamilton has been wildly inconsistent in 2018, so can they peak this weekend against Williams?

Is this a trap game for the Ephs? It’s hard to imagine losing two games in a row and still overlooking your next opponent, but after their trip to Clinton, Williams will only have arch rivals Wesleyan and Amherst remaining on the schedule, and their first Little 3 title in almost a decade is all they have left to play for, barring a miracle (I went through all the outcomes in my head and it doesn’t look good). What’s left of this defense is a far cry from the group that held Trinity to 16 points, a feat that is looking more and more impressive by the week. Star LB TJ Rothmann ’21 continues to be on the injury report with a sprained jaw, and they’ve lost DE/LB Austin Thomas ’19 for the season with a concussion. They need some pieces to come together if they want to beat Wesleyan and shock Amherst, but they still have too much talent not to take care of Hamilton, who can’t be feeling great coming off a loss to Colby. Until we know which Kenny Gray ’20 is going to show up for the Continentals, I won’t feel comfortable picking them.

Final Score: Williams 35, Hamilton 10

Week 6 Game of the Week: Williams @ Tufts

Two Men Enter, One Man Leaves: Williams @ Tufts Game of the Week Preview

Overview:

When Tufts beat Wesleyan in Week 2 and Williams beat Trinity in Week 3, the collective eyes of the league circled this game on their calendar. It appeared that this game would be the biggest game of the season, a potential matchup of 5-0 teams beginning their championship sprint to the finish. Not to say that Tufts was expected to cruise through Trinity, but there was still a decent chance this would be a battle for 1^st place. But after Week 5 everything has dramatically changed. Tufts dropped their first contest of the year in Hartford to Trinity, and Middlebury shocked Williams on their own field, and both teams dropped to 4-1. Now both one loss teams, this game is an elimination game. The winner of this game will continue their pursuit of a NESCAC championship, and the loser will compete to be the best of the rest. Needless to say, there’s a lot on the line.

Key for Tufts: Front 7

Tufts’ defense has been anchored on their ability to get to the quarterback. With 15 sacks on the year, they lead the league. They have 3 out of the 10 players in the league with 2+ sacks in DE Jared Ahsler ’19, and LBs Stephen Timmons ’20 and Greg Holt ’20. Keeping the pressure on and refusing to let QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 sit back with time for Williams will force him out of the pocket and hopefully allow for their ballhawking duo of DBs Tim Preston and Alex LaPiana ’19 to do their thing.

Greg Holt and the Jumbos are heading in looking for revenge after falling in week 5.

Key for Williams: Health

There was a lot that went wrong for the Ephs in their first loss of the season to Middlebury last year. Their struggles against dual threat QBs continued (more on that in a little), and they got dominated at the line of scrimmage. But they were missing starting CB Amhyr Barber ’19 at the beginning of the game, and proceeded to lose star LB TJ Rothmann ’21, S Jake Kastenhuber ’21, and lead running back TJ Dozier ’21. The way it looked, Middlebury would’ve beaten a healthy Williams, but a dinged-up Williams doesn’t have a great chance this week. Barber and Kastenhuber are expected back this week, and Williams has a ton of confidence in freshman RB Carter Bagel in place of Dozier (11 touches for 61 yards against Midd), but Rothmann is doubtful with a sprained jaw (not a typo), and that would be a huge loss. Rothmann is in the running for best LB in the league not named Andrew Yamin and is the engine that makes this defense go. They need to be as close to 100% as possible.

Can the Williams defense and Luke Apuzzi survive without TJ Rothmann?

Tufts X-Factor: WR Jack Dolan ‘19

Tufts has increased its passing yards in every week this year, but it should come as no coincidence that their three best weeks have come with Dolan returning to the lineup after missing the first two games. They averaged 140.5 yards through the air without him and have now averaged 262.3 with him. He leads the team in receptions and TDs and is second in yards despite playing two less games. Dolan adds a completely different dimension to a Tufts offense that has already taken another leap this year with the continued development and production of QB Ryan McDonald ’19. McDonald and their committee of running backs are going to give Williams fits but if Dolan is able to stretch the field and add some verticality they’re going to be really hard to stop.

Williams X-Factor: QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21

It’s been a weird year for the reigning Freshman of the Year. Maimaron actually leads the entire conference with 7 rushing touchdowns, and has thrown 6 TDs to only 2 INTs, both of which came last week in their loss to Middlebury. Coach Raymond chose to run the ball down Bates, Bowdoin, and Colby’s throats, rather than boast their QBs stats like the rest of the league does, so the numbers don’t tell the whole story. It seems like Maimaron is being limited in his playmaking abilities. Before last week, his best passing performance was 12-25 for 154 yards for 2 TDs, numbers which are way too low for a passer of Maimaron’s caliber. Against Midd, once they fell behind and Dozier got hurt, they took the leash off and let it fly, and Maimaron went 20-38 for 239 yards. Hopefully this caught the coaching staff’s attention because if that Maimaron shows up on Saturday they’ll have a really good chance to win. He is the rare player in this league that has the ability to sway games by himself, they just need to let him.

Everything Else:

There are a lot of question marks in this game, but they also seem to require answers from Williams. Their health, their offensive play-calling, and their experience and maturity were all tested last week. We’re going to learn a LOT about them and their super sophomores when they come to the Ellis Oval on Saturday, which is not a fun place to play if you’re the road team. Their performance against Middlebury does not bode well for them, as the Tufts’ offense is essentially the same look just with superior personnel across the skill positions. Will Jernigan is no Ryan McDonald but he still killed them with his ability to throw and run. Tufts is a veteran team with a history of winning—they went 7-1 two years ago, they are no strangers to this kind of game. They should win this game. But if Williams comes out and finally realizes that just about no one in this league can cover WR Frank Stola ’21, and they target him 18 times, they could still outshoot the ‘Bos. Let Maimaron loose and see what happens. But there are too many holes right now for Williams to come in and get a road win. They should get dominated on each side of the ball for the second week in a row, and until proven otherwise, I expect they’ll struggle against another dual-threat QB.

Final Score: Tufts 27, Williams 17

Big Spreads and Small Hopes; Week 6 Weekend Preview

Well folks we are just over halfway through the season and are getting a pretty clear idea of how the conference is going to shake out. Teams have separated into three tiers and it is pretty easy to see where each team lies. The top four teams all have at least four wins, Amherst leading the way with five. Secondly, there are the 3 mid-tier teams, all hovering right around the .500 mark. Finally, we have the three winless teams, all of whom happen to reside in the same state. These three tiers make predictions much easier, almost always if a higher-tier team is playing a lower one, they will win by a significant margin. That being said, it is football and there are some unexpected upsets every now and then. Let’s hope for more unexpected results as we roll into the final half of the season.

Hamilton (2-3) @ Colby (0-5)

Hamilton found themselves on the right side of a blowout for the first time in a long time. The Continentals dropped 62 points on Bowdoin, the second highest total in their 128 years of football. QB Kenny Gray was absolutely incredible. He completed 74% of his passes, totalling 293 yards and 4 touchdowns in their air. Additionally, he contributed 8 rushes for 87 yards. David Kagan and Mitch Bierman added a touch down each while Joe Park added 2 of his own. Will Budington was Gray’s main endzone target, hauling in three touchdowns on the day. It was clear that Bowdoin had no answer for the Hamilton offense and Hamilton took advantage of that. Bowdoin tried to stay in the game initially, only trailing by 11 at halftime. After a few second half adjustments Hamilton was able to shut down the Polar Bears completely, not allowing a single point in the second half. Hamilton has now established itself as a middle of the league program and they have another opportunity to trash a lesser team this weekend. If the Continentals are in similar form on Saturday, things may go their way in Waterville.

Colby has lost 5 straight games to start the season, but not all losses are created equal. Their 35-9 loss to Amherst last weekend was to be expected, but they seem to have more and more positives to build off of as the season goes along. QB Matt Hersch continued to look solid for the Mules despite playing arguably the best team in the conference. Hersch completed 28 passes, resulting in 212 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are not too shabby considering that he is a freshman, in his 3rd ever start, playing an undefeated team. Their defense left more to be desired as they allowed Amherst to jump out to a 28-0 lead at the half. A much improved second half saw the Mules only allow 7 points and even record a turnover, but the damage had been done a while ago. Colby has been overpowered from the start in each of their previous matchups, but perhaps that is not true this weekend. Despite their blowout last week, Hamilton seems to be the weakest opponent that the Mules have faced to this point. With constant improvement and a decrease in opponent quality, maybe the the Mules can pull off a surprise win at home.

Score Prediction:

Hamilton 31 Colby 24

Bates (0-5) @ Middlebury (3-2)

Conrado Banky might just have his way with the Bobcat defense at home this weekend.

Bates was clearly overmatched by Wesleyan last week, dropping the contest 44-13. The big play plagued their defense, allowing 4 touchdowns on plays of 30 or more yards. Although their defense did give up quite a few big plays, they made one of their own on a 68 yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. In fact, their defense scored half of their points. QB Brendan Costa was basically a non-factor in the game, only amassing 78 yards in the air. Their ground game was equally unimpressive, totaling 79 yards between 5 different carriers. With only 157 yards of offense as a team, Bates never give themselves a chance. After a surprising victory, as a result of much improved defense, Midd will be another tough task for the Bobcats.

Middlebury’s victory over a previously undefeated Williams has to be the upset of the season so far. After Williams beat Trinity, it seemed as if they were the lead candidate for conference champs. Midd was able to turn that narrative around by handing them a clinical 21-10 loss. QB Will Jernigan took over the game, running for one of Midd’s touchdown and throwing for the other two. RB Peter Scibilia was fantastic as well, putting up 143 yards on the ground. The defense is truly what shined for the Panthers this weekend. They held Williams to their least points scored on the season and was able to pick off QB Bobby Maimaron twice as well as force a sack-fumble. Midd was able to shut down the player with the most combined passing and rushing touchdowns in the league, a big turnaround from giving up 52 points to Wesleyan opening weekend. Midd is red hot right now and I would not expect an 0-5 team like Bates to be able to stop them. This should be a fun weekend for Midd fans up in Vermont.

Score Prediction: Middlebury 38 Bates 9

Trinity (4-1) @ Bowdoin (0-5)

The Bantams are going to keep chugging along this weekend.

Trinity bounced back nicely last week, earning themselves a 38-24 come from behind win against Tufts. The Bantams allowed Tufts to jump out to a 14-0 lead after the first quarter, but were able to take control after that. The majority of Trin’s scores came on their ground game. QB Jordan Vazzano rushed for 2 while Max Chipouras and Devante Reid added scores of their own. Vazzano tacked on 220 yards and a touchdown in the air for good measure. After the first quarter the Bantam defense took over, not allowing Tufts a point in the second or third quarter. This was a great momentum shifter for Trinity after suffering their first loss of the season in the previous weekend. The Bantams have proved that they can still beat anyone in the conference and still have an opportunity to clinch yet another conference championship. After last week, Bowdoin should make for very light work.

There are not many positive comments to make about the Polar Bears after they allowed themselves to be demolished by mid-tier program such as Hamilton. Their defense could do absolutely nothing to slow down the Continentals and it more than showed in the scoreline. QB Austin McCrum was able to record 3 touchdowns but continues his woes by being picked off 3 times as well. RB Brendan ward couldn’t get much going either, picking up 81 yards and not reaching the end zone. When you turn the ball over 4 times, as Bowdoin did, you don’t give yourself much of a chance to win. When you allow over 500 yards of offense and 8 touchdowns, you give yourself absolutely no shot at a win. It probably won’t get much better this week as Bowdoin has to face a Trinity team that may be the most talented in the league.

Score Prediction: Trinity 55 Bowdoin 17

Amherst (5-0) @ Wesleyan (3-2)

Andrew Sommer and the Stampede are coming to take their sixth win in as many chances this weekend.

Amherst continued their dominance last week in a 35-9 win over Colby. Amherst played a very simple and efficient game and was able to take home an easy win. QB Ollie Eberth continued to look excellent for the Mammoths, he threw for 194 yards and completed 3 touchdowns. Eberth was able to add another touchdown on the ground to add on to an excellent day. RB Biafra Okoronkwo had an absolute day of it, rushing for 185 yards and a touchdown of his own. Everything about Amherst’s offense was working and they were able to manipulate Colby’s defense with ease. The defense was equally as impressive, forcing the Mules to punt 5 times as well as forcing them to turn the ball over on downs on 4 separate occasions. This Amherst team seems to be the most complete program in the conference and the fact that they are undefeated reflects that. Although Wesleyan is a better team than Colby, there is nothing to prove that Amherst have slowed down at any point this season, or that anyone can beat them.

Wesleyan didn’t face many challenges in their 44-13 win over Bates last weekend. The Cardinals were able to put up 23 points in the third quarter alone while limiting the Bobcats to only one score in each half. It only took QB Mark Piccirillo 10 completions to find the back of the endzone on 3 separate occasions. Piccirillo, Charlie McPhee and Sean Penny were also able to score on the ground, rounding out the 6 touchdowns for the Cardinals. 2 of Piccirillo 3 touchdowns went to WR Dario Highsmith, making him the most targeted red zone receiver on the day. Defensively, Wesleyan was terrific. They only allowed the Bates offense to score on them once, while their other touchdown was on a fumble recovery. Wesleyan stuck to their game plan and it played dividends. Although everything seemed to go Wesleyan’s way last weekend, it will likely be a different story this weekend. Nobody is yet to be Amherst and the Cardinals are likely not going to be the first one. While Wesleyan has appeared to be a dominant team at points in the season, they have not shown that against the top-tier teams in the conference. This weekend is another chance for them to dismiss that narrative and show they can run with the big dogs.

Score Prediction: Amherst 28 Wesleyan 13

Shaking Things Up: Week 5 Power Rankings

Week 5 Power Rankings

This is exactly the week we’ve been waiting for. Finally we get to see some games with real championship implications and a good number of changes to the rankings. Williams and Tufts both suffered their first loss, and they’ll have a chance to battle it out next weekend in a game that will essentially remove one of them from title contention. Trinity played their way back into the conversation and Amherst found their way back to the top through very consistent play against the easier portion of their schedule. From here on out there will be games every week played between some of the top teams, so this is where we start to get some excitement. As usual, each team’s ranking from last week is in parentheses next to their new ranking for this week. Things are looking quite a bit different than they were just a week ago.

(3) 1. Amherst (5-0)

To the dismay of pretty much everyone besides Amherst and their fans, the Mammoths are number one. The last remaining unbeaten team took care of Colby this weekend to close out the weak half of their schedule and they now sit alone atop the league. It won’t be easy, as they still have to play Wesleyan and Trinity on the road and Williams and Tufts at home. Amherst’s linebackers are playing on another level from everyone else right now, as Andrew Yamin ’19 leads the league with 5.5 sacks and Andrew Sommer ’19 has a sack and two interceptions to go along with 26 tackles, which is second on the team. Tailback Biafra Okoronkwo ’20 has really stepped up in the past two games, logging 271 yards on 30 carries with a touchdown in the absence of lead RB Jack Hickey ’19 who as missed the past two games with a sprained MCL. Fortunately he returns just in time for the Mammoths visit to Wesleyan for their first Little Three matchup.

(4) 2. Trinity (4-1)

The Bantams have started to look like themselves again since their first loss to Williams in Week 3

Trinity came up with their first huge win of the year, taking down Tufts 38-24. After trailing 14-0 at the end of the first quarter, they went on a 38-3 run before allowing another touchdown late in the fourth. This is the type of win characteristic of a championship team. Tufts had been playing some of their best football, and the Bantams took it to them in front of a raucous home crowd at the Coop. RB Max Chipouras ’19 looked much improved from previous weeks, carrying the ball 29 times for 164 yards and a touchdown. I don’t know how many times I’ve said this, but 9 of the team’s 10 receptions belonged to either Koby Schofer ’20 or Jonathan Girard ’21 and they accounted for all but 5 of the team’s receiving yards. This guys really must just be that good, because you’d think opposing teams would realize the game plan at this point. I guess that’s why I’m here writing and not on the field. The Bantams will face a much easier opponent in Week 6 when they head up to Maine to take on Bowdoin.

(1) 3. Williams (4-1)

I have to admit; I didn’t see this one coming. Williams looked like the team to beat after some decisive victories against the league’s weaker teams and a huge win over Trinity in Week 3. On Saturday the Ephs allowed Middlebury to run all over them, with the Panthers amassing 278 yards on the ground and absolutely dominating time of possession. QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 had a decent day throwing the ball, but a few untimely turnovers combined with a nearly nonexistent rushing attack really cost them. We’ll also have to keep an eye on the injury to LB TJ Rothmann ’21 since he has been undoubtedly the best defensive player on the team, and one of the best in the league. The story is the same for Williams as it is for most of the other top teams at this point – a very tough schedule from here on out. No reason to hang their heads after just one loss because their championship hopes are still very much alive. The road continues this weekend when they hit the road to play Tufts in another huge matchup.

(2) 4. Tufts (4-1)

It was a tough week for the Jumbos who had the tall task of playing Trinity on the road. The defense struggled to keep up with a loaded Bantam offense, allowing Trinity’s three-headed monster of RB Max Chipouras, WR Koby Schofer, and WR Jonathan Girard to run away with this one. This was the first time all season that this unit looked vulnerable, and it was mostly on the ground. Yes, Trinity’s two top receivers had big games, but Vazzano only completed 10 passes so most of their game plan was via the run. The Jumbo offense didn’t look terrible, but Tufts simply could not manage to get much going on the ground so QB Ryan McDonald was forced to throw the ball more than they would have liked. Like Williams, Tufts will look to put this game behind them because it’s looking like a one-loss team could end up taking or at least sharing the crown. This gets even more exciting because Tufts and Williams are both in the same position now as they prepare to square off this weekend in Medford. Talk about a big game.

(6) 5. Middlebury (3-2)

Wow. What an effort from Middlebury. It was like a completely different team took the field against Williams on Saturday. The Panthers controlled the entire pace of the game behind QB Will Jernigan ’21 who is really starting to come into his own. The sophomore completed 18 passes and found 7 different receivers for a total of 162 yards and two touchdowns, all while adding 94 yards and another touchdown with his legs. Perhaps the biggest story was that the defense that had really struggled this season was able to remain strong and make big plays when they needed to. They came up with two interceptions, fumble recovery, and a crucial stop on 4^thand 2 all deep within their own territory to prevent Williams from putting points on the board. It’ll be important to see if the Panthers can duplicate this type of performance, because they have a chance to do some damage as a spoiler late in the year with matchups against Trinity and Tufts still remaining. They shouldn’t have too much of a problem with Bates this weekend.

(5) 6. Wesleyan (3-2)

QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 is doing everything he can to carry the Wesleyan offense

The Cardinals are starting to look like themselves again after a tough stretch in the early weeks. WR Dario Highsmith ’20 had a huge game against the Bobcats, catching 4 passes for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns. QB Mark Piccirillo ’19 is starting to look like the same guy we’ve seen in the past, although he’s been running the ball much more than he has over the course of his career. This is likely due to a thinner receiving corps, but he has had quite a bit of success averaging 5.6 yards per rush on 68 attempts and 3 rushing touchdowns. The defense has been solid but it isn’t the same dominant unit we’ve seen from Wesleyan in recent years. That said, they’re still a very strong team capable of beating anyone, and they’ll try their luck this weekend when the only undefeated team left comes to town in the form of the Amherst College Mammoths.

(7) 7. Hamilton (2-3)

The offensive performance of the year thus far now belongs to the Continentals. I don’t care who you’re playing against, 62 points is legit. Hamilton’s offense looked very “top tier” against Bowdoin, led by QB Kenny Gray who completed 23 of 31 passes for 293 yards and 4 touchdowns. This is the Kenny Gray I thought we’d see more of this year. He was absolutely dominant and was aided by 213 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns from his supporting cast. The Continentals picked off four passes, two of which were by DB Sam Bowen ’20. Allowing 27 points isn’t anything to write home about but we’re now getting a chance to see the big-play ability present in this defense. Hamilton is in a great position to steal a win from a top team, but first they’ll have a chance to build on the win last week with a visit to Colby in Week 6.

(8) 8. Colby (0-5)

Amherst is a tough matchup for anyone, and the Mules pretty much did what they were expected. The Mammoths shut down the run game, but it was another very promising game throwing the ball by QB Matt Hersch ’22 who finished 28-47 for 212 yards and a touchdown. He has now put up some very impressive numbers in his limited time so far and he’s done it against some very good defenses. They were pretty unsuccessful running the ball against Amherst, but they have relied heavily on the performance of RB Jake Schwern ’19 and will continue to do so as they begin to face weaker opponents. They have an intriguing matchup with Hamilton this weekend in a game that could end up being fairly close. The Mules should go into this game with a newfound sense of confidence now that they’re finding their identity and finally get to take on someone their own size.

(10) 9. Bowdoin (0-5)

LB Joe Gowetski ’20 has been one of the lone bright spots, leading the NESCAC with 47 tackles

The game plan with QB Austin McCrum ’20 is evidently to throw the ball as much as possible. He attempted 54 passes on Saturday against Hamilton, completing 31 of them for 279 yards, but throwing 3 interceptions in the mean time. This game served as a microcosm for McCrum’s season to this point. He has thrown the ball 37 more times than anyone else in the league this season, but owns a TD:INT ratio of 6:9 and his longest completion has been just 31 yards. At times Bowdoin’s offense has looked good, but too many mistakes have taken them out of opportunities to score. I don’t think anything really needs to be said about a defense that just got obliterated by the 4^thworst team in the conference. Sadly they’ll have to take on the league’s best offense in Trinity, so they’ll have to make some serious changes or else we could see another big number on the scoreboard at the end of this one.

(9) 10. Bates (0-5)

In the interest of full disclosure, I’m a student at Bates so I’ve done just about everything I can to avoid putting them in the cellar every week when I write the power rankings. Unfortunately, I couldn’t seem to put of the inevitable any longer. The Bobcats are last in just about every metric on offense and bottom three in just about every metric on defense. QB Brendan Costa ’21 has been very ineffective throwing the ball but I don’t want to place the blame solely on him because the offensive line is giving him little to no time to find his receivers. WR Kody Greenhalgh ’20 didn’t join the team until Week 3 and he’s already the team’s top receiver in terms of yardage and receiving touchdowns. I don’t know what it’s going to take but Bates really needs a spark right now because they’re in danger of losing the CBB for the first time in 5 years. Next up is a visit to Middlebury.

Everybody Likes a Spoiler: Week 5 Stock Report

Stock Report 10/15/17

Just when we get over the halfway point of the season and think we know what’s going on, something changes. Middlebury came out of nowhere to upset one of the league favorites in Williams, and Hamilton erupted for the most dominant offensive performance of 2018. While we still got most of the picks right (4/5), the next few weeks will be all the more unpredictable with higher stakes.

Stock Up

Hamilton’s Legitimacy

Hamilton was one of my picks to move up to the top half of the league this year given their aggressive number of returning players. With such a veteran presence on the playing field, they should be able to beat some younger teams (Bowdoin, Bates, and maybe Midd and Williams) due to lack of mistakes and experience. They should at least put up a fight against some of the tougher teams in the league. While they were dominated by Tufts, Amherst, and Trinity, those are three of the four most talented teams in the league who also have heavy veteran presences. They had four passing and four rushing TDs last weekend against a Bowdoin team that nearly knocked off an inconsistent but talented Middlebury team. They also beat one of the league favorites in Wesleyan, and as a result, while they are clearly not on par talent wise with some teams, I wouldn’t be shocked if they finished above .500.

Middlebury’s Game Management

Peter Scibilia is showing us that he is a NESCAC back to be reckoned with following his 140+ yard performance against Williams.

The first four weeks against Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Colby, and Amherst, the Middlebury Panthers looked rushed, unorganized, and uncertain about their offensive identity. Their talented skill players, depth at both WR and TE, and capable rushers, were not utilized the way anybody envisioned they would be. An injury to senior captain and starting QB Jack Meservy opened the door for Will Jernigan to manage the entire game against Williams. While Meservy flashed talent in the pocket last year and at times this year, their system using both Meservy and Jernigan made it so neither QB could get any kind of rhythm. They out-talented Colby and Bowdoin, but were beat by comparably talented and better managed Amherst and Wesleyan teams. They couldn’t have looked more different against Williams in their 21-10 victory. Jernigan may not have had a sexy passing day in his starting debut, throwing for just 162 yards, but his use of the RPO and QB designed runs had the Eph defense reeling. The Panthers rushed for 278 yards and ate up the clock. They don’t really have a shot at a title anymore, but they could be some scary spoilers and bring the heat in trap games against Trinity and Tufts. Also a not so talked about aspect of the game–their blocking was phenomenal.

The Way Things Should Be

I said that Max Chipouras was the Trinity X-Factor in their game against Tufts. I stand by that pick, and also questioned whether he lost a step after some recent duds of performances. Well, if there’s anything I’ve learned from covering NESCAC football for my four years of college, it’s that Chipouras is the best back in the league and that he should dominate. Thankfully, after his game against Tufts, everything makes sense again. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the ground and accumulated 164 yards and a TD, showing us once again exactly what he’s made of.

Stock Down

Williams Rush Defense

Apparently Rothmann broke his jaw on Saturday, and if so, can the Eph defense control the run without him?

After writing that Amherst, Trinity, and Tufts had the best run defenses in the league, Karp gave me a hard time about how his boys in Williamstown deserves some more recognition. He had a good point that some of those other teams hadn’t faced many competent rushers and Williams did limit Chipouras to less than 4 yards per carry, but his claims didn’t hold up against the Panthers. Williams lost their biggest defensive playmaker, TJ Rothmann, to a jaw injury in the first quarter, leaving them without a leader on the field and without any confidence against a young Middlebury rushing attack. Middlebury kept their pace of play quick, and the Williams linebackers and defensive lines got lit up all afternoon, losing control of the game. If Rothmann isn’t good to go next weekend against Tufts, Ryan McDonald could have a big game running a similar style offense to Will Jernigan.

Maine Football

Nate Richam had us all excited after his week two performance against Middlebury, but where has he (and Bowdoin’s O Line) been since then?

I guess this one isn’t as much of a stock down as it is a ‘stock not up,’ since Maine football hasn’t really been too hot lately. Bowdoin gave us all some hope earlier this year when Nate Richam dominated Middlebury on the ground, while Griff Stalcup and Austin McCrum have showed both talent and chemistry with their unique offensive scheme. Colby has made some changes by starting first year QB Matt Hersch and coach Jack Cosgrove has attempted to make his mark on the NESCAC, failing thus far to turn around the Mules program. Bates, like Colby, had high hopes with their new head coach, Malik Hall, but have struggled to transition to the ‘air raid’ offense that was promised, likely due to the lack of a talented passing QB. Colby allowed 35 points with no turnovers on offense, Bowdoin allowed eight touchdowns (although they did turn the ball over 5 times), and Bates allowed 35 points also without turning the ball over on offense. While we don’t expect these teams to have great offensive performances against tough defenses, they will never have a chance if they can’t limit even the not-so-scary offensive attacks that the NESCAC has to offer (Amherst and Hamilton this week). Maybe nobody should win the CBB this year as all the Maine teams are 0-5 and at this point, nobody wants a participation trophy, right?

Even until they aren’t: Game of the Week 10/13

Week 5 Game of the Week — Tufts @ Trinity, 1:30 PM Saturday, October 13th

Overview:

Trinity stays at home this week to try to keep their championship aspirations alive. After losing to Williams in week three, they are one loss away from irrelevance. They stayed alive last weekend, easily blowing through Hamilton (44-7), who beat Wesleyan in the week prior. While the Jumbos also blew through Hamilton in week one (29-2), their game against Wesleyan has been their toughest contest of 2018. Tufts was also played tightly by Bates for three quarters in week three before pulling away for a 47-14 victory. Trinity has looked human and beatable in recent contests, but they have the talent to give undefeated Tufts a run for its money and will not go down easily in their own house with their season on the line.

Key for Trinity: Rush Defense

While the Bantam offense faltered against the Ephs in their loss, their defense was aces all day. They held each of the Eph rushers to under 3.4 yards per carry, which is impressive considering QB Bobby Maimaron is averaging almost a yard per carry more in his other three games and has rushed for six TDs on the season too. If Trinity can keep QB Ryan McDonald and RBs Mike Pedrini and Dom Borelli out of the end zone on the ground it could be a slow day for the Jumbo offense.

Key for Tufts: Secondary and Linebackers

Greg Holt should be ready to go this weekend.

Against Wesleyan, the Tufts defense had seven tackles for losses and 5.5 of those came from either the secondary or the linebackers. In order to stop Trinity’s new signal caller Jordan Vazzano, they will need to step up their pass defense as they have been dominant against the run game. They allow 58.3 yards per game on the ground compared to 173 yards per game in the air. Their defensive playmakers DB Tim Preston, LB Tylor Scales, and DB Alex LaPiana have all four of their INTs on the season while LB Greg Holt leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss. Those four could make game changing plays against Vazzano who has been prone to throwing INTs in recent weeks.

Trinity X-Factor:

RB Max Chipouras

Chipouras faces the second toughest rush defense this weekend (Amherst still holds the rush defense crown), and he has his work cut out for him. He has faltered compared to his usual talent in recent weeks and hasn’t done much since he blew up against a mediocre defense against Colby in week one. In the last three weeks, averaging 3.7, 3.6, and 4.2 yards per carry which is paltry for even average NESCAC standards. While he still rushed for two touchdowns last weekend, the strongest rush defense he faced was Williams who still allows an average of over 138 yards per game on the ground. He has yet to face Amherst or Tufts yet and that makes me beg the question, has he lost a step?

Tufts X-Factor:

RB Mike Pedrini

While we all know that Ryan McDonald is going to make an impact on Saturday but the Jumbos will need to diversify their offensive attack to penetrate the Bantam defense. RB Dom Borelli has more carries but Pedrini has three touchdowns compared to Borelli’s one. The pair are both averaging just over 4.5 yards per carry each and have more touchdowns than any other pair of Jumbos besides McDonald. He saw almost no action in their only real battle this year against Wesleyan, rushing three times for just six yards. Ryan McDonald has the ball in his hands the majority of the game, although if the same Bantam defense shows up that narrowly lost to Williams, the Jumbos will have difficulty if their QB is the only one with the ball.

Everything Else:

The Coop is going to be rocking on Saturday.

This matchup looks to be remarkably even. Both teams have top defenses, are in the hunt for a championship, and have strong leaders at QB. There’s no doubt that both Ryan McDonald and Jordan Vazzano are elite NESCAC QBs with 6:2 and 11:3 TD to INT ratios, respectively, and should be duking it out in a tightly contested battle this weekend. Trinity clearly has the advantage between RBs, but McDonald is the main weapon for the Tufts rushing game anyways, so they appear to be near equals there as well. Trinity’s receivers are performing remarkably the last few weeks as Jonathan Girard has taken off with 24.2 yards per catch and 6 TDs, making his mark like Mike Breuler did last season for Wesleyan. No Tufts receivers have more than two TDs and this could lead McDonald to lean more heavily on the run game in light of Trinity’s stellar secondary led by Matt Patry and Robert Levine. Vazzano might struggle against some of the Tufts defenders but he will still undoubtedly find some of his wideout weapons while McDonald may have to try to take all of the offensive explosion into his own hands. Here’s the point—both teams have stellar defenses, but Trinity has more weapons to overcome their opponent than the Jumbos.

Predicted Score: Trinity 24 Tufts 17