Jake Kastenhuber – Nothing But NESCAC

Do or Die: Middlebury vs. Williams Game of the Week Preview

I can’t recall many instances in which the inaugural game of the season is an absolute must-win, but for Williams and Middlebury, Saturday’s tilt in Vermont absolutely falls in this category. For the Ephs, their roster is finally turning into a scary bunch of upperclassmen, with 15 returning starters ready to launch themselves into title contention. For the Panthers, an injury-plagued 2018 season saw them limp to a 5-4 record, and Coach Bob Ritter knows he has certain pieces that can give any team in the NESCAC problems. The first step in this sort of rebuilding process, however, is winning their home opener against one of the most talented teams in the ‘CAC. FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!

Key #1 for Williams: Establish the Passing Game

X-Factor: Bobby Maimaron ‘21

Do-it-all quarterback Bobby Maimaron ‘21 is right up there with a few other signal callers in terms of being the best in the NESCAC, but the junior will have to prove on Saturday that he can toss the pigskin more often and efficiently. In five of eight contests from 2018, Maimaron completed less than 53% of his passes, including some sub 40% performances against Colby, Trinity, and Hamilton. Despite having a very balanced offensive approach in 2018, Williams’ overall success is predicated on its ground game; Maimaron led the team in rushing a season ago, and the Ephs return their top two backs. In order for Williams to soundly put away Middlebury (and set the precedent for the rest of the 2019 season), Maimaron must attack a pass defense that, in 2018, was slightly better than just two NESCAC teams: Bowdoin and Hamilton. The safeties and linebackers should be much improved for the Panthers, but they’re breaking in two new starting corners and have essentially zero proven depth at the position. Top reciever Frank Stola ‘21 and tight end Justin Burke ‘21 will be salivating at the thought of going 1v1 on some of Middlebury’s defenders.

Key #2 for Williams: Clog up the Run Lanes

At the time Middlebury visited Williams last season, the Ephs were undefeated and had upset the mighty Bantams two weeks prior to cement themselves as the frontrunners for the 2018 Championship. That all came crashing down when the Panthers stifled an Ephs’ offense that (to that point) was averaging over 32 ppg, and Jernigan registered 256 all-purpose yards en route to a 21-10 road upset. Running back Pete Scibilia ‘21 had one of the best games of his career to date, totaling 143 yards on 29 carries. The Ephs allowed a total of 278 yards on the ground to the Panthers last season, and if they don’t shore up those running lanes this time around, Williams will have to find a way to score 30+ to win.

The good news? Williams returns a ton of production within their linebacking core. TJ Rothmann ‘21, Jarrett Wesner ‘21, Luke Apuzzi ‘21 and Colston Smith ‘22 (Williams runs a 3-4-3 defense) are among the best in the league, and will be tasked with containing Jernigan and Scibilia. The defensive line has some question marks, however, as Oscar Unobskey ‘20 is the only returning starter; moreover, none of the other returners registered more than 10 tackles a season ago.

Key #1 for Middlebury: Restrict Maimaron’s ground success

X-Factor: Pete Huggins ‘21

The team’s second-leading tackler a season ago, Huggins will most likely be tasked with spying on Maimaron tomorrow afternoon. He’ll be in charge of reading the delayed handoff exchange between Maimaron and running back TJ Dozier ‘21, as well as keeping the quarterback in check when on quarterback-designed runs and scrambles. Senior linebacker and 2018 All-Conference Second Team Defense nominee Kevin Maxwell played an instrumental part in this game a season ago, registering six sacks and a tackle for loss. Huggins and the rest of the linebacking core need to stay disciplined and force Maimaron into obvious passing downs to make things easier on their inexperienced corners.

Key #2 for Middlebury: Get their Playmakers the Ball

Despite finishing a paltry 5-4, make no mistake: the Panthers have weapons all along the offense. In addition to the uber-productive ground game led by Scibilia and Jernigan, Middlebury has a plethora of receiving options. The only tight end better than Burke is Middlebury’s Frank Cosolito, a two-time selection on the All-Conference First Team Offense. Cosolito had a relatively quiet day against the Ephs last season (three receptions for 25 yards) but I’m expecting a much more impactful performance this time around. Receivers Maxwell Rye ‘20 and Maxim Bochman ‘20 will have a similar opportunity to their counterparts on Williams in that the Panther duo will be going up against inexperienced defensive backs. Junior corner Jake Kastenhuber ‘21 is making the move from safety this season, and as my colleague Matt Karpowicz pointed out, this is a key indicator concerning the lack of depth at that position. If Jernigan can just get his playmakers the ball in space and let them work, the Panthers will have a good chance of pulling off the upset.

Everything Else:

Everyone thought Williams finally turned the corner with their upset of Trinity last season, only to suffer defeat at the hands of Middlebury. That inaugural loss sent the Ephs in a spiral, losing four of their last five gives and culminating in a 45-14 thrashing against Amherst. You have to think the Ephs are out for revenge, ready to spoil the Panthers’ home opener. Still, it’s a task that is much easier said than done; both teams are nearly identical on paper – two dual-threat quarterbacks who are better with their legs than their arms, a whole bunch of offensive weapons, and defenses with major holes (notably at the cornerback position). What it comes down to is simple: which team can pass the ball better? Both defensive gameplans will be centered around taking the running game away, so it will be up to Maimaron and Jernigan to win the game with their arms. The kicking situations will be a key factor to watch as well, since Middlebury’s Carter Massingill was only 1/3 on field goals a season ago; however, the quarterback that can keep the opposing defense honest throughout the entire game will leave Youngman Field at Alumni Stadium with their first win of the season. Give me the more polished thrower in Maimaron to shake off a slow first half and lead his squad to a victory.

Final Score: Williams 27, Middlebury 17

Is This the Year?: Williams Football Preview 2019

2018 Record: 5-4

2019 Projected Record: 7-2

Projected Offensive Starters (*9 returning)

QB – Bobby Maimaron ‘21*

RB – Carter Begel ‘22*

RB – TJ Dozier ‘21*

WR – Frank Stola ‘21*

WR – Justin Nelson ‘21*

TE – Justin Burke ‘21*

LG – Pat Watson ‘21

LT – Jeremy Subjinski ‘20*

C – Jeff MacArthur ‘20*

RG – John Rooney ‘20*

RT – Ryan Pruss ‘20

Projected Defensive Starters (*6 returning)

S – Ben Anthony ‘20*

S – Ed Manzella ‘21

CB – Jake Kastenhuber ‘21*

CB – TBD

OLB – Coleston Smith ‘22

ILB – TJ Rothmann ‘21*

ILB – Jarrett Wesner ‘21*

OLB – Luke Apuzzi ‘21*

DE – Oscar Unobskey ‘20*

DT – TBD

DE – TBD

Projected Specialists (*2 Returning)

K/P – Andrew Schreibstein ‘22*

KR/PR – Frank Stola ‘21*

Offensive MVP: QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21

There are so many people who need to perform at a high, high level for the Ephs to have a chance to win the league this year, but none moreso than their junior signal caller under center. It was a weird sophomore season for Maimaron, who earned ROY honors in his magical freshman season that saw Williams go from 0-8 to 6-3. He was one of the top ball carriers in the entire league, finishing 4 th in rushing yards per game (68.4) and 5 th in rushing TDs (8). But his yards per carry only jumped from 3.4 yards to 3.8, the only evident change in his rushing numbers was due to the number of carries. There were a number of reasons outside of his control for why he went from throwing for 200 yards per game and completing 58% of his passes to just 143 yards per game and a 53% completion percentage—lack of weapons, playcalling, line play, etc., but those numbers need to look a lot more like his 2017 numbers than his 2018 numbers. Luckily, Maimaron could be the most talented QB in the league, or most talented player in the league for that matter, he just needs to prove it.

Defensive MVP: CB Jake Kastenhuber ‘21

Kastenhuber makes the move over to cornerback this season after spending his first two patrolling the secondary as a safety. Williams graduated both of its starting corners last year, and the fact that they felt the need to move a two-year starter over to fill a need speaks to their lack of confidence in being able to find other CBs on the roster. Hopefully it is a seamless transition for Kastenhuber because the Ephs have struggled with locking down the top wide receivers around the league in recent years, and their lack of depth on the defensive line means they cannot afford to have any holes elsewhere.

Biggest Game: September 14th @ Middlebury

This is an absolute must win for both teams, and I would imagine they know that. But especially for the Ephs with the way their schedule is so backloaded. I’m sure most people are aware and will be made more aware as the season progresses, but for those who don’t know, Williams, Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity all play each other in the last 3 weeks of the season. If any of those teams have serious championship aspirations, they better plan on showing up for their Week 7 matchup with an unblemished 6-0 record. Beating Middlebury on the road Week 1 and defending home turf against Tufts the following week is certainly doable for Williams, who really could be 6-0 when that last stretch rolls around. It all starts on Saturday.

Everything Else:

It was a weird 2018 season for Williams, which makes forecasting this season pretty tough. On one hand, they were the only team to beat Trinity last year. On the other hand, they went 1-4 in their final 5 games, a combination of catching the injury bug and a touch of complacency following their big win against the eventual champs. The good news is that they return all but 6 of their points, and their 8 leading tacklers. On paper, they should be poised to take a huge leap forward. But the bad news is that they do not appear to have improved their weaknesses from last season—namely the defensive line, cornerbacks, and the ability to stay healthy. The front 3 is still largely up for grabs, as is one of the starting CB spots, and they already lost their expected starting RT, freshman John Freeman, for the year.

WR Frank Stola ’21 evades a Middlebury tackler during a 2018 game

So, one of two things (preferably both) needs to happen. The first is that the studs they have been able to rely on for 2 or 3 years now need to really carry this team—Maimaron, all-league WR Frank Stola ’21, and their arguably league-best linebacking core, led by all-league juniors Jarrett Wesner and TJ Rothmann. These guys need to ball out and stay healthy. The other thing is that guys whose names we don’t know yet need to have breakthrough seasons. The overwhelming individual talent in the junior class across the board for Coach Mark Raymond has made it tough for other guys, namely in the sophomore and senior classes, to find playing time, but injuries and graduation have finally opened some holes up.

This team is one of the best in the league, without a doubt. They just need a little bit more help if they hope to achieve what they really want to achieve. This might not be the year yet, but then again, they are arguably the favorite to win each of their first 7 games, if they ever get over their mental block against Wesleyan. Show up 7-0, give Trinity a run for their money in Week 8, and defend their home turf against Amherst in the finale? Maybe go 8-1 and see what happens? Crazier things have happened.

Week 6 Game of the Week: Williams @ Tufts

Two Men Enter, One Man Leaves: Williams @ Tufts Game of the Week Preview

Overview:

When Tufts beat Wesleyan in Week 2 and Williams beat Trinity in Week 3, the collective eyes of the league circled this game on their calendar. It appeared that this game would be the biggest game of the season, a potential matchup of 5-0 teams beginning their championship sprint to the finish. Not to say that Tufts was expected to cruise through Trinity, but there was still a decent chance this would be a battle for 1^st place. But after Week 5 everything has dramatically changed. Tufts dropped their first contest of the year in Hartford to Trinity, and Middlebury shocked Williams on their own field, and both teams dropped to 4-1. Now both one loss teams, this game is an elimination game. The winner of this game will continue their pursuit of a NESCAC championship, and the loser will compete to be the best of the rest. Needless to say, there’s a lot on the line.

Key for Tufts: Front 7

Tufts’ defense has been anchored on their ability to get to the quarterback. With 15 sacks on the year, they lead the league. They have 3 out of the 10 players in the league with 2+ sacks in DE Jared Ahsler ’19, and LBs Stephen Timmons ’20 and Greg Holt ’20. Keeping the pressure on and refusing to let QB Bobby Maimaron ’21 sit back with time for Williams will force him out of the pocket and hopefully allow for their ballhawking duo of DBs Tim Preston and Alex LaPiana ’19 to do their thing.

Greg Holt and the Jumbos are heading in looking for revenge after falling in week 5.

Key for Williams: Health

There was a lot that went wrong for the Ephs in their first loss of the season to Middlebury last year. Their struggles against dual threat QBs continued (more on that in a little), and they got dominated at the line of scrimmage. But they were missing starting CB Amhyr Barber ’19 at the beginning of the game, and proceeded to lose star LB TJ Rothmann ’21, S Jake Kastenhuber ’21, and lead running back TJ Dozier ’21. The way it looked, Middlebury would’ve beaten a healthy Williams, but a dinged-up Williams doesn’t have a great chance this week. Barber and Kastenhuber are expected back this week, and Williams has a ton of confidence in freshman RB Carter Bagel in place of Dozier (11 touches for 61 yards against Midd), but Rothmann is doubtful with a sprained jaw (not a typo), and that would be a huge loss. Rothmann is in the running for best LB in the league not named Andrew Yamin and is the engine that makes this defense go. They need to be as close to 100% as possible.

Can the Williams defense and Luke Apuzzi survive without TJ Rothmann?

Tufts X-Factor: WR Jack Dolan ‘19

Tufts has increased its passing yards in every week this year, but it should come as no coincidence that their three best weeks have come with Dolan returning to the lineup after missing the first two games. They averaged 140.5 yards through the air without him and have now averaged 262.3 with him. He leads the team in receptions and TDs and is second in yards despite playing two less games. Dolan adds a completely different dimension to a Tufts offense that has already taken another leap this year with the continued development and production of QB Ryan McDonald ’19. McDonald and their committee of running backs are going to give Williams fits but if Dolan is able to stretch the field and add some verticality they’re going to be really hard to stop.

Williams X-Factor: QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21

It’s been a weird year for the reigning Freshman of the Year. Maimaron actually leads the entire conference with 7 rushing touchdowns, and has thrown 6 TDs to only 2 INTs, both of which came last week in their loss to Middlebury. Coach Raymond chose to run the ball down Bates, Bowdoin, and Colby’s throats, rather than boast their QBs stats like the rest of the league does, so the numbers don’t tell the whole story. It seems like Maimaron is being limited in his playmaking abilities. Before last week, his best passing performance was 12-25 for 154 yards for 2 TDs, numbers which are way too low for a passer of Maimaron’s caliber. Against Midd, once they fell behind and Dozier got hurt, they took the leash off and let it fly, and Maimaron went 20-38 for 239 yards. Hopefully this caught the coaching staff’s attention because if that Maimaron shows up on Saturday they’ll have a really good chance to win. He is the rare player in this league that has the ability to sway games by himself, they just need to let him.

Everything Else:

There are a lot of question marks in this game, but they also seem to require answers from Williams. Their health, their offensive play-calling, and their experience and maturity were all tested last week. We’re going to learn a LOT about them and their super sophomores when they come to the Ellis Oval on Saturday, which is not a fun place to play if you’re the road team. Their performance against Middlebury does not bode well for them, as the Tufts’ offense is essentially the same look just with superior personnel across the skill positions. Will Jernigan is no Ryan McDonald but he still killed them with his ability to throw and run. Tufts is a veteran team with a history of winning—they went 7-1 two years ago, they are no strangers to this kind of game. They should win this game. But if Williams comes out and finally realizes that just about no one in this league can cover WR Frank Stola ’21, and they target him 18 times, they could still outshoot the ‘Bos. Let Maimaron loose and see what happens. But there are too many holes right now for Williams to come in and get a road win. They should get dominated on each side of the ball for the second week in a row, and until proven otherwise, I expect they’ll struggle against another dual-threat QB.

Final Score: Tufts 27, Williams 17

Sophomore Slump? Williams College Season Preview

Coach Raymond and the Ephs shocked everybody in 2017, but can they improve?

Sophomore Slump? Williams College Season Preview

2017 Record: 6-3

NBN Projected 2018 Record: 5-4

Projected Starters:

Offense (8 Returners*):

QB: Bobby Maimaron ‘21*

RB: TJ Dozier ‘21

FB: Kyle Horihan ‘20

WR: Frank Stola ‘21*

WR: Justin Nelson ‘21*

WR: Rashad Morrison ‘21

TE: Justin Burke ‘21*

LT: Jeremy Subjinski ‘20*

LG: Mike Ludwig ‘20*

C: Jeff MacArthur ‘20

RG: Pat Watson ‘21*

RT: Karsten Salveson ‘19*

Defense (9 Returners*):

DL: Jameson DeMarco ‘19*

DL: Brendan Rosseau

DL: Oscar Unobskey

OLB/DE: Austin Thomas ‘19*

ILB: TJ Rothmann ‘21*

ILB: Jarrett Wesner ‘21*

OLB: Luke Apuzzi ‘20*

CB: Amhyr Barber ‘19*

CB: Des Butler ‘19*

FS: Ben Anthony ‘20*

SS: Jake Kastenhuber ‘21*

Special Teams (2 Returning):

K: Min Kyu Park ‘21*

P: TBD

KR/PR: Frank Stola ‘21*

Offensive MVP:

WR Justin Nelson ‘21

In this offense there are certainly a lot of options with this choice, but I’m going to go with the other Sophomore WR at Williams. Everyone knows about Frank Stola ’21, and for good reason, but Nelson has a chance to be the guy who takes this offense and this team to the next level. His freshman year looked like a typical freshman year—flashes of brilliance in the form of 6 catches and 125 yards, including a 76-yard TD vs. Hamilton—and games against Tufts and Amherst in which he failed to register a catch. Stola is still going to be their top big play threat but Nelson has the most unique skillset to be a target all over the field. He can catch it short and take it 76 to the house like he did against Hamilton, he can work the 10-15 yard routes that Coach Raymond loves in his offense, and he also might possess the most raw speed in the entire league. Williams’ running game looks to be their weakness offensively, but Nelson’s ability to turn short plays into big plays could make up for that.

Defensive MVP:

LB TJ Rothmann ‘21

Is 83 tackles in just 8 games good? Because that’s what TJ Rothmann’s freshman year consisted of, good for 4^th in the entire league. Despite returning 9 guys on defense, the two vacancies are up front on the line. All League NT Chris Hattar ’18 is gone and so too is Sam Gowen ’19, a fellow defensive lineman with a couple of years of starting experience. They might struggle at the line of scrimmage, especially early in the year. This team’s strength last year has been its run defense, and I expect that to continue, but it is going to be contingent upon Rothmann and the rest of the linebacking core stepping up and making a lot of tackles in the box. He has a legitimate chance to lead the NESCAC in tackles, and I expect him to be in the top 3 regardless. Ask anyone around the team and they’ll tell you that Rothmann is the most talented player on the team. He’s going to need to play like it if they want to continue to grow as an elite run-stopping unit.

Williams struggled to get anything going against Trinity in 2017.

Biggest Game: 9/29 vs. Trinity

Ironically enough, despite starting the season 4-1, it was the Ephs’ 17-9 loss in Week 3 @ Trinity that was arguably their most impressive performance. They lost a one score game on the road to the reigning undefeated league champions, and at no point did it seem like they couldn’t hang. But when the Bantams come to Williamstown this year on the last Saturday in September, it might as well be an elimination game. Both teams should be 2-0, and if you’re Williams, winning this game could mean starting the season 5-0 if they can get through Middlebury. But this league is Trinity’s until proven otherwise, regardless of who’s returning and who isn’t, and if the Ephs are the real deal this will be their chance to show it.

The Eph squad is young and has energy, but they need to bring the heat to replicate 2017.

Summary: What a difference a year makes, right? A year ago, this team was hoping to get on the board with a win in what felt like a huge game against fellow 0-8 Bowdoin. Now, it’s championship or bust in Williamstown. This team, on paper, has all the talent it needs to win the NESCAC. The offense has no shortage of weapons in 2017 ROY QB Bobby Maimaron ’21, WRs Frank Stola and Justin Nelson ’21, and swiss army knife WR Rashad Morrison ’21. The defense looks primed to be a top three unit in the league again, led by one of the best two linebacking groups in the NESCAC. It feels crazy to say but this team is returning 17 starters and yet I can’t get past the potential shortage up front on the defensive line. Whatever pairing gets rolled out there with DeMarco is going to be undersized and the weak link of a defense that relies heavily on being able to stop the run. Luckily, opening with Bowdoin and Colby should give them time to iron out the kinks. Other than that, any problem this team is going to have is going to be mental. Are the Ephs ready to take that next step and be a true championship contender, where every week is either spent dodging an upset bid or going toe-to-toe with another ring-chasing team? Last year, they were the happy-go-lucky group of upstarts who swung big and toppled a couple of giants. This year, can they be the last ones standing?

Karp’s Projected Record: 6-3