Game Preview – Page 9 – Nothing But NESCAC

The Real NESCAC ‘Ship? Hamilton @ Williams Preview

Hamilton (22-3, 7-3) @ Williams (20-5, 7-3)2/24 7:30 PM @ Amherst, MA

Overview:

This could be the matchup between the two best NESCAC teams, but it happens to only have a ticket to the finals and not a banner on the line. Williams travelled to Hamilton just two weeks ago with the Ephs coming out on top in a big way, pulling away by 14 in the second half, winning 81-67. Although both teams are shoe ins to make the NCAA tournament, only one is going to have a chance at the NESCAC title and home field advantage in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament still hangs in the balance. Hamilton shot unusually poorly last time these teams met at 37.3% while their season average is 46.4%. Williams, on the other hand, shot 45% from deep and 54.3% overall, way up from their 47% season average.

Kena Gilmour is going to need to be at his best to advance to the NESCAC finals.

Hamilton has turned it back around after a brief scuffle at the midway point of conference play, showing the rest of the league that their season may be far from over. They beat Middlebury handily in the last weekend of the year 102-83 and knocking off Tufts without much struggle 91-82 in the quarterfinals despite shooting horribly. If they play anything like they did against the Panthers, they will be unstoppable as they lit it up (52.5% FG, 62.5% 3 PT) and only turned the ball over 11 times. Despite their win against the Jumbos in the quarterfinals, they only shot 16.7% from deep which won’t do the trick against the Ephs as their shooters have been on fire in their own right. Bobby Casey and James Heskett won’t stop scoring, so don’t be fooled by their narrow margin of victory over a weak Trinity team 73-71. Coupling Williams’ recent lack of depth with Hamilton’s recent shooting inconsistencies, this game could swing in any sort of direction.

Williams X-Factor: Centers Matthew Karpowicz/Michael Kempton

Despite James Heskett’s breakout season as a PF, his outside shooting combined with a recent lack of rebounds leaves a deficit in the front court for the Ephs. Not a single Williams player had more than six boards in any of their last three games. Centers Michael Kempton and Matthew Karpowicz are a major key to this matchup as they need to battle down low against Peter Hoffmann, Michael Grassey, and Kena Gilmour who combined for 37 boards against Tufts. With the possibility of Hamilton shooting their way to over 100 points like against the Panthers, Williams is going to need to grab offensive boards for Heskett and Casey to have big enough games to keep the Ephs on top. Karpowicz has hauled in double digit boards three times this season and is going to need to bring his A game this weekend as the Hamilton bigs are a big presence down low.

Hamilton X-Factor: F Michael Grassey ’19

Kena Gilmour and James Heskett are sure to score back and forth in this game, while Grassey needs to get close to matching the production of the new sharp shooting Bobby Casey. Gilmour should be the top scorer for the Continentals, although Grassey is the biggest three point shooting threat for Hamilton. He makes 40% of his shots from beyond the arc and scores nearly half of his point per game on such shots. He has also had some duds along the way though, going 1-7 from deep in a loss against Bowdoin and just 1-6 last weekend. Casey, like Grassey, has had some streaks, including a 14-25 run from deep in his last three games and a 1-10 performance against Bowdoin. The shooting scales will tip in the direction of whichever deep threat is more accurate.

Final Thoughts:

Both of these teams have played remarkably well all year, culminating in what is sure to be a barn burning head to head matchup. Hamilton made a long awaited transition to a powerhouse team while Williams battled injuries and adjusted perfectly with players stepping into new roles and Coach Kevin App leading the way. They have had some tough losses down the stretch—Williams to Amherst and Hamilton to Bowdoin, but they looked good in their opening round playoff games. Hamilton has a deeper scoring arsenal and more big game threats than Williams (due to their injuries) and looks to be more balanced headed into this semifinal. As mentioned, Bobby Casey has come out of nowhere recently to carry the Ephs. Cole Teal has played terribly as the fourth highest healthy scorer behind Heskett (19.6 PPG), Casey (16.2 PPG), and Karpowicz (9.2 PPG). He finally found his shot against Trinity, going 5-9, and without Kyle Scadlock or Mike Greenman, he can’t have any more 4-24 shooting stretches at this point in the season.

In the wake of injuries, Henry Feinberg ’20 has stepped into the starting lineup as a defensive small forward.

The combination of Kena Gilmour, Tim Doyle, Peter Hoffmann, and Grassey who all average over double-digit PPG should stretch out the Williams defense on the perimeter. They do turn over the ball and don’t distribute well, ranking in the bottom half of the NESCAC in both stats. This game is going to be a game of runs, with both teams finding streaky performances throughout their seasons. Both have top of the ‘CAC talent and potential POYs on the court in Heskett and Gilmour, and whichever team wins is going to likely win the conference.

Writer’s Prediction: 83-78 Hamilton

Anything Can Happen: Tufts @ Hamilton Men’s Basketball Quarterfinal Preview

Tufts (17-7, 6-4) @ #15 Hamilton (21-3, 7-3), 3:00 PM, Clinton, NY

It’s finally time for the madness that is the NESCAC tournament. Last season we saw the title game between Middlebury (the #2 seed) and Williams (the #6 seed), which shows that really anything can happen. Only adding to the chaos is the fact that 5 teams tied for first place this season, giving Middlebury a road game in the first round despite being tied for first, and giving Tufts the #6 seed despite being just a single game out of first place. Many people (or just me) have likened the NESCAC tournament to FIFA’s Euro Cup – it is a smaller tournament that only covers one region, yet many people argue that it is more difficult to win the Euro Cup than the FIFA World Cup because the Euro Cup boasts a much deeper pool of teams. I would argue that the same could be said about the NESCAC – the conference consistently has more tournament teams than anyone else, and the conference tournament is certainly deeper top to bottom than the NCAA Division III tournament. As a result, the first round games are just as exciting as the later round games, especially in a season where the teams are so evenly matched. The opening round game between #3 Hamilton and #6 Tufts is one to highlight, as this season has been a bit of a role reversal for both teams:

Overview:

Hamilton comes into the matchup at #15 in the nation after finishing the season at an outstanding 21-3 mark, including 7-3 in conference play. The Continentals got off to a blistering start, coming out of the gates at 14-0 before suffering a bad loss to the eventual #1 seed Amherst. They dropped games to Bowdoin and Williams as well, placing them in the midst of the 5-way tie. In their first meeting, Hamilton traveled to Medford and handed it to the Jumbos in a 74-57 drubbing in an incredibly ugly shooting game. The star for Hamilton, sophomore Kena Gilmour ’20, had a modest game in the first meeting, netting 10 points on 2-9 shooting, while hauling in 9 boards. As a team, the Continentals lead the NESCAC in points per game (87.4), steals per game (8.8), and turnovers forced per game (18.4). This means that Hamilton will look to run and speed up the game, because the higher the score goes, the better their chances.

Kena Gilmour ’20 is becoming a star right before our eyes, but can he do it in his first playoff experience?

The story for Tufts this season has been a bit different. Although they were just a game out of first place, they finished with the #6 seed – their lowest finish since 2013-2014. What’s interesting is that had Tufts not dropped their meeting with Bates, they would have entered into a 6-way tie for first place, which is crazy to think about. Either way, here we are, with this intriguing matchup. In their regular season game with Hamilton, Vincent Pace ’18, the unquestioned star for Tufts, only put up 12 points and 6 rebounds on 3-14 from the field and 1-8 from deep. These numbers are nothing in comparison to his season line of 17.6PPG, 8.3REB/G, 40% FG. The real issue for the Jumbos was that they were outrebounded by Hamilton, 49-38. While Hamilton may have one of the biggest lineups in the league, Tufts has to be better keeping them off the boards if they want to have a chance in this one. Tufts also shot an abysmal 24% from the field, which will likely improve in this contest.

Hamilton X-Factor: F Michael Grassey ’19

The Continental lineup is stacked with scorers, and Grassey is one of them. He has had a very consistent presence all season, averaging 13.7PPG, 6.7REB/G, 50.7% FG, 42.2% 3PT. What sets Grassey apart is that he has the ability to really go off, in addition to being a consistent scoring threat. He has had three 20-plus point performances (27 vs. Conn College, 29 vs. Cazenovia, 24 vs. Utica) and can get REALLY hot from downtown. In those three games combined, he went 16-22 from behind the arc. At 6’4”, 205lbs, he is tall enough to shoot over guards, and his size makes him a prolific rebounder. Hamilton has many weapons, but if Michael Grassey ’19 can put up a big performance, they are nearly impossible to beat.

Tufts X-Factor: duo of C Luke Rogers ’21 and C Patrick Racy ’20

Patrick Racy ’20 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

As I mentioned before, Tufts struggled on the rebounding side in their first meeting with Hamilton. Guards Vincent Pace ‘18, KJ Garrett ‘18, and Everett Dayton ‘18 provide the majority of the Jumbos’ rebounding, despite them having two large centers in their rotation. This game for Tufts will be decided by this duo because with Rogers standing at

Luke Rogers ’21 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

6’8”, 230lbs and Racy at 6’7”, 215lbs, they are huge presences in the paint. They have similar stat lines – about 5PPG, 4.5REB/G, 45% FG – and each play just under 20 minutes per game. This means that they have a similar effect, so Coach Sheldon has the option of playing them separately to always have one on the court at all times, or they could go big and put them both on the floor to match Hamilton’s size. Either way, I expect these centers to have a much larger impact in this one.

Final Thoughts:

I have to admit, all signs seem to point to Hamilton in this one. They crushed the Jumbos in their first matchup in Medford, and have seemed to play better, consistent basketball this season. This will likely be a high scoring game with the Continentals and Jumbos having the 1st and 3rd highest scoring offenses respectively. Hamilton shoots a much higher percentage from the floor, from three-point land, and from the charity stripe, which obviously gives them a huge edge. I praise the Continentals, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Their lineup is still a bit young and unproven in the postseason, and NESCAC basketball is just really weird. Vincent Pace ’18 is an absolute winner, and has proven himself capable of putting up huge performances, as he displayed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season when he put up 37 points. Hamilton may be 21-3 and #15 in the nation, but for some reason I’m not completely sold on them so I have to go with my gut feeling here. The #6 seed means nothing to the Jumbos and I believe that Pace and co. have a little bit of tourney magic in them to steal a win from the hands of the Continentals.

Vincent Pace ’18 has several clutch performances under his belt, and we think his biggest one is yet to come.

Writers Pick: Tufts 86-81

Grit N’ Grind: Middlebury @ Wesleyan Men’s Basketball Quarterfinal Preview

#13 Middlebury (19-5, 7-3, 5th Seed) @ Wesleyan (19-5, 7-3, 4th Seed,) February 17th, 3:00 PM, Middletown, CT

Overview:

This certainly isn’t the matchup the Panthers were expecting heading into last weekend. Before their demoralizing pair of road losses to Hamilton and Amherst, Middlebury was alone at the top of the league and needed just one win to secure at least the two seed. But after those losses, Middlebury sits in the fifth position and now has to go on the road to play a team to which they already lost. It was a perfect storm of bad news for the Panthers last weekend, and their road to a third straight NESCAC title is now the hardest one yet.

However, this is not an ideal matchup for Wesleyan either. The 13th ranked team in the country is a pretty steep task for the quarterfinals, no matter how badly they played the weekend before. Wesleyan lucked out schedule-wise in the last weekend, winning home games over Bowdoin and Colby to enter the gauntlet of 7-3 teams. This was by far the easiest weekend of any of the teams. And, although they beat the Panthers early in league play 80-70 (although it was closer than that score suggests,) they have been inconsistent this season, especially on offense. Their worst loss of the season came to Trinity, a 73-60 debacle that made plain all of Wesleyan’s flaws. Offensively, they rely on different players every night, and lack a consistent go-to scorer. Even Jordan Bonner ‘19 has proven himself to be shaky at times. When they lose, it is simply because they cannot score.

Jordan Bonner ’19 has been a go to scorer at times for the Cardinals, but he is very streaky.

Obviously, these problems are similar to those that Middlebury has faced all season. These teams are similar in style. Both teams rely on a very strong perimeter defense and dominating the boards, leading to turnovers by their opponent and second chance points that make up for inconsistent outside shooting. Last weekend, Middlebury’s offense wasn’t exactly the problem against Hamilton. They put up 83 points and were able to score in the paint pretty easily. Unfortunately, Hamilton’s outside shooting was too much for Middlebury. It’s difficult to match three pointers with two pointers. And then against Amherst, Middlebury couldn’t get anything going offensively, much like Wesleyan against Trinity. This should be a low scoring, defensive battle. Whichever team can grind out enough baskets will win.

Key Player for Middlebury: G Jack Farrell ‘21

jack Farrell ’21 (Courtesy of Middlebury College Athletics)

Farrell was a lone bright spot for Middlebury over the weekend. He drove the ball to the basket with incredible confidence, scoring 11 against Hamilton and a career high 22 the next night against Amherst. Farrell has started every game this season, and has proved himself to be a valuable secondary ball handler and defender. Coach Brown has used him, along with fellow first year Griffin Kornaker ‘21, to give Jack Daly ‘18 the occaisional rest. However, for much of the season neither has been a consistent enough scoring option to allow Daly to be off the floor for long. But Farrell changed that last weekend. When Farrell is scoring consistently, it means he is getting to the basket, as he is still not a great outside shooter. This draws defenses into the paint, and opens up outside shots and offensive rebounding chances for the Panthers. A strong performance from Farrell would also allow Daly to ease off the throttle a bit. Daly looked exhausted against Amherst, and was trying to do too much in order to make up for the struggles of his teammates. Middlebury needs better performances across the board on Friday, especially from Daly, but that doesn’t necessarily mean scoring. He needs to score efficiently, but Middlebury’s best possible offense features Daly setting everything up and others finishing. Farrell is one of those finishers.

Key Player for Wesleyan: F Jordan Sears ‘19

We gave Sears a little love in the Awards article, but he’s a dominant defender both on the perimeter and in the paint. He is the only player in the league in the top five in the league in steals and blocks, and Wesleyan’s defense (one of the best in the league) centers around his ability to guard all five positions. In fact, an apology may be in order for us not picking him for DPOY. Sears’ versatility will be even more important against Middlebury than it usually is for the Cardinals, because of how differently the Panthers are constituted now than they were when these teams first met. In that first game, the Panthers were trying to be a high octane, run and gun offense. It was one of Eric McCord’s first games back from injury, and the Panthers weren’t nearly as focused on owning the paint, preferring perimeter attacks. In essence, they played right into Wesleyan’s hands. Middlebury over the course of the season has shifted their focus to rebounding and scoring in the paint. Sears will be crucial in defending that area. Instead of using him on the perimeter, Wesleyan may put him on McCord or Adisa Majors ’18 to limit Middlebury’s post up game. Either way, Sears will be all over the court this game, and could be MVP without scoring a single basket.

Jordan Sears had 2 steals and 4 blocks last time these two teams met, including this one on Jack Daly.

X Factor: Offensive Rebounding

There are going to be a lot of missed shots in this game. Middlebury has struggled shooting the ball from three for so long that one can’t even really call it a “slump” anymore: that’s just how they shoot. And Wesleyan is very streaky from three as well, and has a tendency to settle for them when the rest of their offense isn’t flowing. A lot of missed shots lead to a lot of offensive rebounds. Middlebury has dominated the boards for much of the season, and had 21 offensive rebounds the first time these two teams met. Wesleyan had only 11, but of course, they also shot a much higher percentage from the field. These are two excellent defensive teams, so the ability to get easy layups on open jump shots off of offensive rebounds could turn the tide.

Final Thoughts:

In the first meeting between these two teams, Wesleyan shot 35 foul shots and Middlebury only shot 7. Needless to say, that isn’t a very sustainable way for Middlebury to play. And even more amazingly, Jack Daly was the only Panther to attempt a foul shot. That will change on Saturday. Eric McCord ’19 is a far larger part of Middlebury’s offense now, and the team as a whole is far more focused on attacking the rim. Middlebury has to even out those free throw numbers, as that was the difference in the last game.

As we’ve noted several times throughout this season, Middlebury struggles most against teams who attack the glass as ferociously as they do, and feature multiple three point threats. Middlebury likes to play an aggressive zone defense, allowing their pesky guards like Daly, Farrell and Griffin Kornaker ’21 to really pressure the ball and create turnovers. But as Hamilton proved, teams that can put three or four outside threats on the court at once can destroy that zone with quick passes to open threes. Wesleyan is certainly able to battle Middlebury on the glass; they are second in the league in rebounding differential (Middlebury is third.) But the Cardinals can’t space the floor like Hamilton can. Austin Hutcherson ’21 is a truly dangerous sharp shooter, hitting 41% of his threes on the year (although he was 2-14 over the weekend.) Jordan Bonner ’19 is at 36% but has struggled in league play, and Nathan Krill ’18 is at 39%. Those are Wesleyan’s only real three point threats, and Krill and Bonner are both notoriously streaky. Middlebury will be able to leave non shooters, such as Sears, Kevin O’ Brien ’19 and JR Bascom, to attack those shooters off of the catch, and that zone defense should be workable, since Wesleyan doesn’t bring shooters off the bench. Middlebury would obviously prefer to be a higher seed and play at home, but this is actually a pretty good matchup for them.

Kevin O’ Brien ’19 is the point of Wesleyan’s defense on Daly.

Speaking of O ‘Brien, he is still recovering from an illness that caused him to miss much of the NESCAC season. When he’s at 100%, he is crucial to Wesleyan’s success as a floor general (5.7 AST/G) and perimeter defender. However, he is not a great shooter to begin with, and his rust has made him even less of a scoring threat. He was a huge factor in guarding Jack Daly when these two teams first played, and if he is not 100%, the Panthers should be able to attack him on both offense and defense. They can stash a defender on him, and since he isn’t an outside threat, whoever that is, be it Farrell, Matt Folger ’20 or Hilal Dahleh ’19, will be free to double Bonner and Hutcherson and play free safety for blocks and steals. Wesleyan needs O’Brien, and they need him healthy.

This is a hard game to predict, because these two teams share a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses. Inconsistent scoring and three point shooting, strong rebounding and defense. Wesleyan is certainly coming into the game on a better note, but they had such an easy weekend that they might be feeling a little complacent, whereas Middlebury is most likely pretty ticked off. It shouldn’t be forgotten in the wake of Middlebury’s 0-2 finish to the year that for much of the season they were the clear best team in the league, and entered last weekend fifth in the entire country. Despite their struggles and Wesleyan’s defense, I think Middlebury makes use of this week off to hammer out some issues, and regains their championship level form, taking a low scoring battle in Middletown.

Writer’s Prediction: Middlebury 70-Wesleyan 65

Entering the Belly of the Beast: Trinity @ Williams NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview

Trinity (15-9, 4-6) @ #9 Williams (19-5, 7-3), 7:00 PM, Williamstown, MA

Overview:

After a wild weekend of NESCAC basketball, Trinity limped into the playoffs as the #7 seed and Williams, like Middlebury, fell to the now #1 seeded Amherst Mammoths, dropping them in conference and in the national rankings. Obviously there is a big gap between Bowdoin and Trinity, the #7 and #8 teams in these playoffs and the top six teams. Bowdoin and Trinity combine for an 8-12 conference record (each 4-6 in conference), while the top six teams are all above .500. So, nabbing the #2 seed actually holds a lot of weight for the Ephs even though they missed out on hosting the NESCAC tournament (unless Amherst blows it against Bowdoin).

Kyle Padmore ’20 and his Trinity squad needs to play out of their minds to have a chance to win.

Trinity was on a bit of a hot streak entering last weekend, knocking off Wesleyan 73-60 and losing to Middlebury by just six (87-81), but fell flat against both Tufts (76-71) and Bates (65-48) who is now in their offseason. The Bantams had 17 turnovers in their game against the Bobcats, five over their season average. They were outscored by 12 in the second half and were destined for defeat thanks to a 12-13 free throw shooting performance from their opponent. They will need to play more disciplined basketball and shoot how they did against Wesleyan (9-18 3-PT) to have a chance against Williams. Williams, similarly, had won five in a row and 7/8 games before they lost a game they were expected to win against Amherst. They lost by a score of 72-57 to the Mammoths and shot just 27.6% from deep, much lower than their 35.8% season average that ranks third in the NESCAC. They shot just 33.9% overall in the game and didn’t have a single player haul in more than six boards.

Trinity X-Factor: Donald Jorden ‘21

Eric Gendron is going to need to play the game of his career for the Bantams to win—there is no denying that. But he can’t win the game alone. He will need members of his supporting cast, namely Donald Jorden, a first-year bench player, to come up clutch in a key situation to keep this Trinity team in contention. Although he only averages 4 PPG on the season, he has shot 16-19 in his last four games, tallying 16 points against Wesleyan in the Bantams’ best win of the year. If he can play an equally big role and everything else goes perfectly, then Trinity could have a chance to upset the #9 team in the country—if they don’t show up to play at all.

Williams X-Factor: Bobby Casey

While James Heskett is a potential player of the year, Casey has been the MVP of their last two games. The senior has scored a combined 53 points in his games against Amherst and Hamilton, shooting 16-30 total and a blistering 10-18 from deep. He is averaging 16.1 points per game on the season but really broke out right before the playoffs. If he plays anything like he did against Hamilton (31 points, 7-10 3-PT), then the Ephs should control this game from start to finish.

Final Thoughts:

It is no secret that Trinity is the heavy underdog in this game as they already lost 75-58 in their meeting earlier this year. Williams is deeper, has played better against better teams, and obviously has a better record. They are playing at home and are comfortable with their position, hoping to snag a home weekend in the semis if Bowdoin can upset Wesleyan. Trinity should be weary but know that they have nothing to lose.

Williams has few holes, but Cole Teal’s shooting of late hasn’t made his teammates celebrate like they are in this picture.

Some things to note for this game are that Williams has a struggling player in their starting lineup and could lead to a double team on defense on either Bobby Casey or James Heskett. This flawed player is Cole Teal who has shot 1-17 in his last two games. You read that right. 1-17. That isn’t good and certainly contributed to Williams’ loss against Amherst. That kind of inefficiency led to many wasted possessions for the Ephs and if the Bantams are on fire—as they need to be—it could certainly play into an upset factor.

Even though on the season Williams is also ever so slightly better defensively than Trinity, racking up 0.2 more rebounds per game and 0.4 more steals per game on average than the Bantams. This is another reason that Donald Jorden could come in to be a key player as he racked up 10 rebounds in his big game against Wesleyan, as many as any Williams player has had combined in their last two games. Williams still has the edge by a large margin in this game, but Trinity could put up a fight in their best case scenario.

Writer’s Prediction: 79-64 Williams

Upset in the Making? Bowdoin @ Amherst NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview

Bowdoin (15-8, 4-6) @ Amherst (16-8, 7-3), 7:00 PM, Amherst, MA

Overview:

Somehow Amherst ended up as the #1 seed in this tournament after looking at a 5-3 conference record going into the final regular season weekend. They knocked off Williams 72-57 and then downed Middlebury 80-68, successfully owning the teams that used to hold the #1 and #2 spots in the league. This crazy change of fortune weekend came on the heels of losses in 2/3 of their previous games, one to Tufts 60-56 and the other to Wesleyan 71-57. What once looked like a rather dismal season for the historically dominant Mammoth team has turned into one with promise for a championship and an NCAA berth as they also received votes in the last D3 National poll.

Men’s Basketball’s Win Streak Halted by Jumbos — Grant Robinson ’21 and Amherst have improved throughout the year, and seem to be peaking at the right time.

Bowdoin as the #8 seed has to be happy that they are facing Amherst. All things considered, as the last seed in these playoffs, they could easily be seeing Williams, Middlebury, or Hamilton, all more formidable on paper than the Mammoths. Yes, they are now facing the hottest team in the league dating back to the first week of February (so, yeah, just last week), however, they also have one of the most talented yet top heavy starting lineups in the league. Their roster’s make up creates a trap game here where they have a legitimate chance to knock off the top seed in the tournament. Yes, Bowdoin lost already 75-60 to Amherst just a few weeks ago, but their opponent also shot over 50% from the floor that night (7% above their season average), while their top scorers performed below their normal levels.

Amherst X-Factor: F Dylan Groff ‘19

Dylan Groff ’19 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

This might seem like a bit of a wild-card pick, but choosing Michael Riopel of Johnny McCarthy would’ve been just a bit too boring. Amherst is likely going to win this game and that is due to their depth. Riopel and McCarthy are good, perhaps All-NESCAC good, but the Mammoths don’t have a Player of the yYear candidate like the other top teams. They do, however, have bench players who contribute and a lock down defense (second in rebounds and third in points allowed per game.) Groff contributes to this depth and added eight and 10 points in the two games last weekend, shooting 7-9 (4-6 from deep), giving his team an accurate weapon off of the bench. Amherst is at their best when they get contributions from all over their bench, and are at their worst when they rely too much on McCarthy and Riopel. Their bench is also their biggest advantage over Bowdoin, who has a lot of talent but isn’t very deep. Groff is one of the players who could help Amherst put this one away.

Bowdoin X-Factor: Hugh O’Neil

With Amherst’s defense as strong as it is, O’Neil is going to need to be a force in the paint for the Polar Bears to have any chance. The leading rebounder on this team, and among the league leaders, O’Neil’s 9.0 REB/G are impressive and a necessity in his team’s playoff game. What is more questionable is his shooting ability. Although he averages a respectable 9.6 PPG, his individual contest stat lines fluctuate hugely from game to game and are a key indication of Bowdoin’s success. He shot 6-8 for 12 points against Hamilton in a big 72-68 win and shot 3-8 last weekend against Wesleyan in a 74-65 loss. While those are just two examples, generally, Bowdoin does better when O’Neil shoots more, complementing their balanced front court attack well. If he can haul in the boards, he should also have a big role shooting the ball.

Final Thoughts:

Along with O’Neil, Bowdoin also has David Reynolds, Liam Farley, and Jack Simonds leading the way for them. Each of those other three players all average over 10 PPG, and bring in over 13 rebounds and five assists combined. This gives them a dynamic starting four with guard Zavier Rucker serving as a pass first guard (3.3 A/G) with limited yet accurate shooting numbers. Their average number for rebounding and points allowed (both 7th in the NESCAC) along with good shooting numbers puts their talent level above their eighth ranking in the standings. All this to say, they are a very tough first round matchup. With three of their conference losses coming by single digit point totals, they can compete with the top teams (72-68 win against Hamilton, 72-70 loss against Midd).

David Reynolds ’20 and Bowdoin have one of the more talented starting lineups in the league, making them not a standard 8 seed.

Unlike Bowdoin who almost won several NESCAC games, Amherst walked the walk at the end of the year and showed up to play. Their final weekend run gives them all of the momentum, a home game, and the edge in this quarterfinal matchup. As mentioned, seniors McCarthy and Riopel lead the way for this squad averaging 11.4 and 12.4 PPG, respectively, adding over 13 boards per game between the pair. Grant Robinson ’21 is a versatile ball handler for his team too, tallying over three rebounds and assists and scoring nearly 10 PPG. Experience, success, and confidence should lead Amherst to victory, despite a challenge from the underdog.

Writer’s Prediction: 78-73 Amherst

A Whole New Season: Women’s Basketball Quarterfinals Preview

The playoffs are here! As everyone anticipated prior to the season, Amherst is the top seed. However, a game always starts at 0-0, and the playoffs are no different. Anybody can win. Let’s look briefly at this weekend’s quarterfinal matchups.

1). #8 Trinity vs #1 Amherst

Courtney Erickson ’19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

It is hard for me to pick Trinity in this matchup. Everything favors Amherst. Amherst is undefeated; Amherst is at home; Amherst is the number one team in the country. Don’t sleep on Bantams junior forward Courtney Erickson. She leads the Bantams in points, and has logged a ton of minutes for the team. Furthermore, she’s an incredibly efficient scoring–shooting above fifty percent from the field. Amherst, however, has an arsenal of weapons. Sophomore guard Madeline Eck has shown that she is held and shoulders that she’s the best player on the court. She’s one of the leaders in points, and facilitates the offense well.

Prediction: Amherst 60-45

2). #7 Williams vs #2 Bowdoin

Abby Kelly ’19
(Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

Bowdoin really bounced back after a tough loss to Amherst midway through the season. The Polar Bears were one of the only teams this season to give the Mammoths a real challenge, as their high powered offense almost broke down Amherst’s defense. Bowdoin obviously turned the page without losing another game. Bowdoin averages an almost 82 points per game. That number is incredible in college basketball. Their high octane attack is led by Junior guard Abby Kelly, who comes off the bench but is as good a scorer as there is in the league. Williams, on the other hand, will pose a serious threat. The team is led by senior forward Kristin Fechtelkotter. She is the main component of the offense, and hopes this won’t be her lsat game. Don’t sleep on Williams, but I’m picking Bowdoin in the hopes that they’ll meet Amherst in a classic final.

Prediction: Bowdoin 75-68

3). #6 Connecticut College vs #3 Tufts

The ‘Bos have had a rocky conference season by their standards. Losses to top teams Bowdoin and Amherst didn’t feel great, but nonetheless, they’re here again in the playoffs. Anything can happen. They’re second in the conference behind Bowdoin in points, so I’m sure they’ll put up the numbers this weekend. Conn College, on the other hand, is the wildcard in this scenario. They’re not as seasoned as the top three teams, but that could be a good thing because they’re not intimidated. They score a lot of points, third in the ‘Cac’, and will provide an offensive show. I believe it’s destiny that Tufts will end up in the top three, though.

Prediction: Tufts 60-52

Tufts’ Melissa Baptista ’18 has a solid POY case, and will lead the Jumbos into the tournament.

4). #4 Middlebury vs #5 Wesleyan

“He’s such a homer! He’s such a homer!” Get over it. I’m going with the Cards here. You know why? Because I watch sports to have fun, and enjoy it. Do I think Midd is the better team? Yes? But what’s the fun in picking the enemy over your own team. I’m rolling with Wes on this one because I believe senior forward Maddie Bledsoe will dominate the paint, and control the time of possession. I don’t care that Wes has to travel to the sticks in granola country. Go Wes. (Editor’s Note: Go Panthers.)

Prediction: Wesleyan 55-51

The Rise of the Bobcats: Men’s Basketball Game of the Week Preview

Bates (9-9, 2-3) @ #14 Wesleyan (14-4, 3-2), 7:00 PM, Middletown, CT

Bates vs. Tufts was a worthy contender for game of the week, but due to Bates’ victory over the Jumbos last weekend, they are the team to beat for Wesleyan. Bates sits in ninth place in the standings, seemingly stuck in the abyss of basketball irrelevance. However, Tufts, who Bates beat 77-75, is sitting in third place at 3-2—only one game ahead of the Bobcats. Indeed, Bates is actually a huge wild card right now in terms of playoff seeding. They could spoil some better teams rankings, and if they can win this one and take down Trinity, they are assured of a playoff spot. This cramming of the standings shows the remarkable parity of the conference and how so much is left to chance with half of the regular season remaining. Not only are there solid teams sitting on the outside looking in, but there are perennial powers just one game out of the similar irrelevance that Bates is facing. This matchup puts power against bottom feeder, while the end result could completely flip the switch on their places in the standings, playoff potential, and power rankings.

Overview:

While Bates is only 2-3 in conference, they have already played Tufts, Midd, and Williams, with their only bad loss coming against Colby. Jeff Spellman ’20, Tom Coyne ’20, and Nick Lynch ’19 are all above average for the conference at their position and are threats on both sides of the ball against what has been an inconsistent Wesleyan team. Regardless of how their shooting accuracy has fluctuated recently, the Cardinals still have only lost to Williams in OT and #16 Hamilton. Therefore, they will compete independent of shooting struggles and can compete with any team in the nation, giving them a clear edge against a Bates team fighting to get into the conversation of relevance.

Wesleyan X-Factor: Passing Game

With O’ Brien out, role players like Elijah Wilson will be responsible for keeping the ball moving and keeping turnovers down against Bates.

Wesleyan is last in the NESCAC with just 14.6 assists per game, leading to a lower shooting percentage (45.9%) than their overall record would indicate. They have had some real duds in terms of ball distribution, like against Hamilton, where they recorded just seven assists on the night, no more than one for any player. The assist numbers were similar in their narrow win over Amherst, with just 10 total assists for the team. While not a clear indication of success, more assists should correlate to better possessions and better shots which should improve the shooting percentage and limit the unusual poor performances from the star players who get caught trying to do too much. Distribution has seen a steep decline since team leader Kevin O’Brien ’19 went down with an injury, taking away 6.5 assists per contest which are heavily missed of late. Jordan Sears ’18 has been taking his place in the starting lineup, putting up five assists in a blowout win over Conn College, but otherwise not having a similar impact to O’Brien. Sears and the first year stand out Austin Hutcherson (second on the team in assists with 2.2 per contest) are going to be the keys to keeping the ball away from Bates.

Bates X-Factor: G Tom Coyne ‘20

In their mid-season defining win against Tufts, Coyne came off the bench to shoot 4-5 from deep, tallying up those 12 points in just 21 minutes played. He electrified the Bobcats and will be a key piece to their performance against Wesleyan. While Jeff Spellman leads the team with 17.0 PPG, Coyne is second with 13.4 PPG. A recent move out of the starting lineup has taken a chunk out of his shot totals for game which rose as high as 20 in a non-conference game against Brandeis, but his sharp-shooting is still one of the biggest parts of the Bobcats’ success. His accuracy will be the biggest unknown of the game as he will be needed for Bates, ranked ninth in the conference in PPG at 73.3 to keep up with Wesleyan’s diverse scoring arsenal. This underdog team is also ranked 10th in 3PT shooting percentage at 32.1%, in line with Coyne’s season average, and if he didn’t shoot well above that against the Jumbos, his team would be sitting at 1-4 overall in NESCAC play. Although he moved to the bench, he still has a large stake in influencing the outcome of the game and he will need to be ready to go for the 9th place team to have a shot to win.

Final Thoughts:

Last time I previewed one of Wesleyan’s games, I highlighted Jordan Bonner’s downturn in scoring efficiency. Since then (right before their 76-70 loss to Hamilton), he has decreased his shooting attempts per game, handing more to Nathan Krill and Austin Hutcherson. While Krill and Hutcherson have both been excelling recently, combining for 33 points and 13 boards against Amherst two weekends ago, they shot poorly against Hamilton, going 5-22 combined. That weekend was the last time the Cardinals played a solid team as they easily rolled over Conn College last weekend and dominated in their non-conference games. In a game where Bates’ leading scorer Spellman could take over the scoreboard, the trio of Bonner, Krill, and Hutcherson will need to be on their A-game from the field.

Bates should be greedy to attack another top-dawg in the NESCAC after falling in the week’s Power Rankings from eighth on 1/17 to ninth after their upset of Tufts. While most of the stuff Pete writes is controversial in some way, it is hard for me to see how a team goes down after beating a team ranked above them (Editor’s Note: Rude.) Nevertheless, this is another chance for the Bobcats to prove their haters wrong with Spellman and Nick Lynch leading the way in scoring and on defense. Lynch, like Coyne, has a huge responsibility, albeit Lynch’s on defense. Lynch leads the Bates team with 8.5 boards per game with Coyne coming in behind him with just 4.2 rebounds per game. Lynch will need to matchup against Wesleyan’s Nathan Krill who hauls in over nine boards of his own. The two 6’7” bigs will be another marquee matchup in this already loaded contest. Bates is not expected to win and needs to do everything right as they did against Tufts and then some to pull it out, but if they do they immediately become a real threat to other top NESCAC teams.

Writer’s Pick: Wesleyan 77-71

Someone’s Gotta Lose: Women’s Basketball Game of the Week Preview

#3 Bowdoin vs #1 Amherst: 1/27, 3 PM, Amherst, MA

The Bowdoin Polar Bears will be traveling to Amherst, Massachusetts, to square off in a battle of unbeatens. After Saturday, there will likely be only one unbeaten team left in the conference. Amherst has been the top team in the league for a while, and Bowdoin attempts to dethrone them of that title. Here is a preview of the game of the week starting with a breakdown of each team, a coaching comparison, key players comparison, a final word, and my prediction:

#3 Bowdoin (18-0 overall, 4-0 conference):

General Statistics:

Bowdoin has the most potent offense in the league averaging 86 ppg, 20 apg, 40% 3pt, and 48% from the field. They haven’t played a very strong schedule relative to Amherst. Bowdoin elected to stay local during winter break, while Amherst traveled across the country to face top talent. Bowdoin currently ranks #3 in the country, and could jump to #1 if they can pull out the victory.

Offensive Breakdown:

Bowdoin has a wealth of scoring in which no one player dominates like Bates’ Davenport. Instead, the top scorer (Abby Kelly ’19) doesn’t even break fifteen points per game. Kelly, along with Kate Kerrigan ’18 (more on her below) each average double figures, and Bowdoin has four more players averaging over seven points per game. This will put pressure on Amherst’s defense because limiting one player’s offense won’t ensure a victory. The assists and three point percentage convey Bowdoin’s strong offensive playmakers and a diversity of assets.

Abby Kelly ’19 is Bowdoin’s leading scorer, and one of the more efficient outside shooters in the league.

Defensive Breakdown:

Even though Bowdoin has been known for its offense this year, a strong case for Bowdoin’s success originates from its defensive play. The Polar Bears only allow 46 ppg and 32% from the field. However, these numbers can be skewed due to weaker opponents. The only major challenge was Tufts in early January, and Bowdoin dominated the ‘Bos on both ends of the floor— beating them by twelve.

#1 Amherst (18-0 overall, 4-0 conference):

General statistics:

Amherst brings a strong offense, but not nearly as prolific as Bowdoin. Amherst averages 65 ppg, 14 apg, 34% 3pt, 43% from the field. Take the difference in statistics with a grain of salt because of the strength of schedule difference. Amherst traveled to Nevada and California to compete against better talent than Bowdoin. In addition, Amherst is ranked #1 in the country. The only close game for the squad was a nine point win over archrival Williams.

Offensive breakdown:

Like Bowdoin, there’s no unbelievable scorer that can take over the game. There are several scorers who average over 10 ppg (Madeline Eck ’20 and Hannah Fox ’20) that provide consistent offense. This bodes well for Amherst because there’s no one scorer who can be shut down; the scoring well won’t dry up. I think that Amherst’s offense will be their best defense in defending Bowdoin. That is, Amherst will want to control the time of possession. They won’t take many quick threes in transition, and will set up their halfcourt offense looking for buckets inside the arc. This ball control will slow down Bowdoin, and possibly get them out of their comfort zone.

Defensive Breakdown:

Defense wins championships, and Amherst’s defense has gotten them two. They only allow 39 ppg with 28% shooting. Those are incredibly low numbers. How do they do it? Fundamentals. Amherst has an uncanny ability to make the opposing offense take bad shots. This comes from limiting second chance opportunities, and closing out hard on shooters. Amherst is certainly athletic, but they win because of disciplined fundamentals and technique.

Amherst is the most dominant defense in the country, and has won 51 games in a row because of it.

Coaching Comparison:

There’s no doubt that both coaches are up for NESCAC coach of the year. The influence these coaches bring to their respective programs cannot be understated. College kids can get demotivated during the late days of December and early January. Non-winter athletes aren’t on campus, and first semester has concluded. Since basketball has a heavy game schedule, one would think that a bad game for one of these programs could occur. Especially because Amherst is #1, and Bowdoin is #3, they have bullseyes on their backs. G.P. Gromacki of Amherst and Adrienne Shibles of Bowdoin have guided their teams to perfect seasons so far. Gromacki is a two time national champion at Amherst— compiling an unheard of 313-24 record. Shibles’ career at Bowdoin has been stellar as well. Shibles has a 212-60 record at Bowdoin. Bowdoin has always put a good squad on the court, but Shibles has brought it to a new level. The Saturday game will provide a challenge for both teams, since they play another important conference game on Friday. I’m sure that strong coaches like Shibles and Gromacki will stress the importance of the Friday games. In so many sports there are instances in which the favored team loses to the underdog due to looking too far forward. The Pittsburgh Steelers provided an example to us this season of how a very good team can lose. The Bowdoin vs Amherst game will inevitably be close, so coaching will be the difference maker. Gromacki has obviously be there before, but Shibles doesn’t lack any experience either.

Player Comparison: Madeline Eck (Amherst) vs Kate Kerrigan (Bowdoin)

Madeline Eck ’20 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

In sports, trying to play to the opponent’s weakness can be detrimental. Teams should always go with their strengths (aka my best against your best). I know teams love to exploit matchups, but at the end of the day, it’s your best player taking the final shot no matter who’s guarding him or her. Enter Madeline Eck ’20 and Kate Kerrigan ’18. I keep referencing Nina Davenport from Bates because she’s such an outstanding scorer, but Eck and Kerrigan are equally as vital to their team as Davenport is even though they don’t put up those insane numbers. Both Eck and Kerrigan put over ten points a game, but most importantly, they dominate areas besides scoring. Kerrigan has two Defensive Player of the Year awards under her belt already, and could add an overall POY trophy this year if she keeps this up. She averages nearly five assists per game, top

Kate Kerrigan ’18 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

s in the league, and shoots almost 40% from three and 56% overall from the field. And Eck has raised her game in the big moments, averaging nearly 17 points per game in NESCAC play. She can be a dominant defender as well, averaging 1.2 steals per game. Coach Gromacki and Coach Shibles trust that their respective players will make the play with the ball in their hands. A stat that stands out to me is that both players rebound the ball very well for guards. The ability to play great defense, and finish the defensive play by snatching the rebound is crucial. This matchup of guards is one to look forward to.

Final Words:

Bowdoin hasn’t been in a close game yet, winning all of their games by at least ten points (by the way, an absolutely absurd stat.) However, this level of dominance could hurt them in playing against a really good team like Amherst. Like Bill Belichick says, ‘sixty minutes.’ Bowdoin needs to play a full game in order to beat Amherst. If Bowdoin wants to be the best, they have to beat the best. Amherst has proven that they’re the best, so it’s up to Bowdoin to dethrone them.

Prediction:

The game will be tight. It’s a very good defense matched up with an incredibly potent offense. I’m not sure if Bowdoin will be able to put up the points they normally do against a tough defense like Amherst. However, Bowdoin has been proving doubters wrong all year. I’m taking Bowdoin over Amherst this year because I believe it’s their year to make a serious bid at a national championship.

Score Prediction: 68-64 Bowdoin

Rivalry Week: Williams @ Middlebury Game of the Week Preview

#11 Williams (12-3, 3-1) @ #16 Middlebury (11-3, 3-1), Saturday, January 20, 3:00 PM, Middlebury, VT

Overview:

The Ephs and the Panthers have become the NESCAC equivalent of the Cavs and Warriors in recent years. The teams met three times last season, including for the NESCAC Championship and in the NCAA Elite Eight. Williams ultimately got the last laugh, beating Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to advance to the Final Four. Both teams have carried over that success into this season. They are each ranked in the top 20 in the country, and have battled it out for the top spot in the league all season, along with Wesleyan and Hamilton.

However, both teams are far from unbeatable. Williams is without their star player, Kyle Scadlock ’19, for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Middlebury’s shooting struggles are starting to become incredibly worrying. Middlebury’s NESCAC loss is to Wesleyan, whom Williams beat for their best win. And Williams’ lone NESCAC loss is to Tufts, whom Middlebury just beat handily at home for their best win. All this is to say that both these teams are again tremendously evenly matched, and this game should have huge ramifications for league standings and the playoff picture overall.

Middlebury X-Factor: G Max Bosco ’21

Max Bosco ’21
(Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

At first glance, this pick might seem to be coming out of left field. Bosco has played fewer minutes than his fellow first year guards Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornacker ’21, primarily due to his smaller stature and struggles to create shots for others off the dribble. Farrell and Kornacker are both miles ahead of Bosco defensively at this point, and Joey Leighton ’20 is certainly more confident offensively. But Bosco can really shoot the ball. He hasn’t gotten a lot of chances yet, but his stroke is as sweet as anyone’s. Middlebury is the worst three point shooting team in the league, and second worst overall from the field. The clutch heroics of Jack Daly and excellent team defense will not be able to save the Panthers against Williams; they have to hit some outside shots to match Williams’ three point heavy attack. Bosco is capable of doing so. Additionally, his defensive struggles will not be as pronounced against the Ephs. Bobby Casey ’20 and Mike Greenman ’18, and even Cole Teal ’18, are an excellent group of players, but they are not large. Casey and Teal will be handled by Daly and Hilal Dahleh ’19, leaving Bosco matched with the 5’8″ Greenman. Bosco has a great opportunity this game to do what he does best; hit shots.

Williams X-Factor: F Matt Karpowicz ’20

We gave Karpowicz a lot of love in the stock report earlier this week, and that’s not just because he wrote some average football articles for us in the fall. Karpowicz is often unstoppable on the block, shooting 73% from the field, almost all in the paint. He splits time with Michael Kempton ’19, another very large person. As longtime reader Howard Herman pointed out, the two players offer very different looks for the offense. Kempton is a distributor, averaging 2 assists per game despite only playing 15 minutes. However, he is not a scoring threat, only shooting 42% from the field. Karpowicz is a game-changing scorer, and draws a lot of attention on the block, freeing up dominant shooters like Casey and James Heskett ’19. Indeed, in Williams’ closer games he ends up playing most of the crunch time minutes. I expect Middlebury to get a far heavier dose of Karpowicz than Kempton. Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ’18 is a great athlete, but struggles with strong post scorers who can back him down and neutralize his length and leaping ability. And Adisa Majors ’18 is simply undersized, no matter which big man Williams has in. This means that Eric McCord ’19 is the guy, and has to avoid the foul trouble that hurt him against Albertus Magnus. In a game in which Middlebury must game plan heavily for Casey and Heskett, Karpowicz is the guy for whom Middlebury has no answer for on their roster.

Expect Matt Karpowicz to far exceed is 15 minutes per game on Saturday.

Final Thoughts:

James Heskett is certainly on the short list for Player of the Year, along with his teammate Bobby Casey, Jack Daly and Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour. He’s very long, with a gorgeous jump shot and incredible quickness for his size. Indeed, he’s been arguably the best shooter in the league this season, hitting 51% from the field and 43% from three. Luckily for Middlebury, however, they have one of the only players in the league who can match his skill set, if not his efficiency, in Matt Folger ’20. Along with the rest of the Panthers, Folger’s shooting numbers have taken a hit of late, but he is still a deadly scorer inside and out. And more importantly for this match up, he is miles ahead of Heskett defensively. Heskett’s skill set and athleticism have not yet translated to that end, as he averages just 0.3 blocks per game and 0.9 steals. Even more jarring is that he averages just 3.8 rebounds a night, despite being 6’8.” Folger, on the other end, has clearly focused on the defensive side of the ball. He is second in the league in blocks at 2.4, and grabs 8.1 rebounds a night. If Folger can outscore Heskett, Middlebury has a good chance to win.

James Heskett and Matt Folger are the crucial matchup to watch.

Rebounding may well be the key to Middlebury’s chances in this game. The Panthers are a bona fide dominant team on the glass. Their numbers are skewed by pulling down a ridiculous 70 against Tufts, but they still lead the league in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and are second in rebounding margin. Williams is towards the bottom of the league in all of those categories. For a team that struggles shooting like Middlebury does, offensive rebounds are a must have statistic, and were what kept them in the game against Tufts until they pulled away in the second half. Williams is a team Middlebury can bully on the glass, creating second chances if shots aren’t falling.

Last thing: this could be a huge game for Jack Daly. He historically raises his game against Williams, but this isn’t just his already covered “clutch gene.” Williams doesn’t really have an answer for his strength at the guard spots. Greenman is far too small, and Bobby Casey isn’t particularly strong defensively. In fact, Williams doesn’t have a single player averaging more than one steal per game. Even their big men are occaisionally timid inside, with the notable exception of Karpowicz. This means that Daly is usually able to get to the basket easily against the Ephs. He’ll draw attention to the paint, and he’s the best in the country at finding open players once he gets around the basket. The key will be how many shots those players can hit.

Writer’s Prediction:

No longtime readers will be surprised by this, but I think Middlebury, on the backs of Jack Daly and an assuredly raucous home crowd, pulls this one out.

Middlebury 75, Williams 71

Perfection on the Line: Men’s Basketball Game of the Week

#14 Wesleyan (10-2, 1-1) @ #18 Hamilton (12-o, 1-0), 7:00 PM, Clinton, NY

And as we dive into the second weekend of NESCAC play there is already a game that will test two teams’ long term capabilities. Hamilton and Wesleyan are due to square off in this marquee matchup on Friday January 12th in Clinton, NY. The home team, Hamilton, has dominated their non-conference schedule and carried that momentum into their first NESCAC game against Trinity, and Wesleyan conquered the mighty Middlebury Panthers and nearly toppled Williams in an OT loss last weekend. In what has been an obscure first conference weekend in terms of power rankings (although you can read all about how Cameron deciphered last weekend’s results in the 1/10 rankings here:) this game should help clear up what the tumultuous beginning has left unclear, and be our best evidence yet as to whether or not Hamilton is legit.

Wesleyan relies on a dominant defense and timely scoring from players like Kevin O’Brien ’19.

Overview:

Wesleyan sits at 14th and Hamilton at 18th in the national poll. One year removed from being a disappointing last seed in the NESCAC playoffs, the Continentals are living up to their incredible talent this season. With versatile scorers like Michael Grassey ’19 and Peter Hoffmann ’19 surrounding stud Kena Gilmour ’20, Hamilton has, on paper, the strongest starting five in the league. Wesleyan, who was more expected to succeed in 2018, is also deep with experienced talent and their position in 2017 as a NESCAC semifinalist and NCAA tournament team would’ve favored them in this game a month ago. However, following losses in two of the Cardinals’ last three games, the home Hamilton squad can hardly be considered an underdog. After returning all of their 2017 starters, the system is in place for Hamilton’s continued success and it shows in their balanced stat sheet and in their win over Trinity last weekend 78-55. And Trinity beat Amherst the previous day 69-63, proving that they weren’t going to just roll over. Wesleyan has weapons on all parts of the floor too, although Jordan Bonner ’19 has seemed to have lost a bit of accuracy shooting lately. Hamilton averages almost 95 points per game, but they should be limited by Wesleyan’s defense, ranking third in rebounds, turnovers, and points allowed per game (64.5) in the conference.

Wesleyan X-Factor: G Jordan Bonner ’19

Jodan Bonner ’19 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

I’m not trying to pick on Bonner here, as we already did that a little bit in our most recent stock report, but in the last five games (Wesleyan is 3-2 in that span, including their only losses), his shooting totals have fallen off of the table. The stock report discusses his ridiculous 10-33 performance, looking like Kobe during his retirement tour, but that isn’t the only blemish. Cumulatively in the last five games, Bonner is 22-71 from the field (31%) and 10-40 from beyond the arc (25%). He started off the year hot and owns respectable numbers from the entire season (40% FG; 33.8% 3 PT), but the league is littered with players who started off hot and then fell off the face of the earth once league play began and defenses adjusted. Sure, Wesleyan has Kevin O’Brien ’19, Nathan Krill ’18, and Austin Hutcherson ’21 who are having solid seasons, but Bonner still leads the team in points at 16.9 PPG, and if he doesn’t improve his shooting given the pure volume of attempts he takes, Hamilton’s offense will be too much to overcome.

Hamilton X-Factor: G Kena Gilmour ‘20

Albeit not a particularly exciting pick, Gilmour completes the matchup to watch of this game. Likely to guard Bonner for at least part of the contest, the Continental scoring leader should have his hands full if he is to help limit the Wesleyan offense. With two blocks and eight rebounds against Trinity last weekend, Gilmour is nearly as much of a defensive force as an offensive one, leading his team with 18.5 PPG. In this breakout season, his shooting numbers have been excellent, at 37% 3 PT on the season and over 50% from the field, he is nearly a lock to score over 20 points, tipping the scales in favor of the home team. Gilmour is the catalyst of the offense that ranks ninth in the nation in points per game and will see his toughest test this weekend against a strong Wesleyan defense. This matchup should reveal just how legit Hamilton’s offense is, and if Gilmour rolls on, the team will too.

Final Thoughts:

Despite being one of only four undefeated teams remaining in all of Division 3 basketball, Hamilton still has not joined the teams that are considered the ‘real deal.’ The Continentals are top-10 in the nation in two statistical categories, including the aforementioned points, along with scoring margin (8th). And yet, they still have to prove themselves in league play. This is their chance, and boy do they have the tools. They play as a unit, and after developing together for a season, now that all of their starters are back for a second season, they should be able to maintain this success into at least a top-4 NESCAC finish. I’ve been on the Hamilton train since the beginning of the 2017 season–showing that I was a bit premature with my support–and am a believer that they are a force to be reckoned with. However, they will be heavily tested by the best teams in the conference.

While I have talked plenty about Hamilton’s hot start, I need not forget that Wesleyan knocked off former national #2 Middlebury, and came dang close to doing the same against Williams. Kevin O’Brien is the most dynamic player on the court for either side in this game, averaging over six assists and rebounds per game, while also shooting at a 61.7 clip. Despite only averaging 8.4 PPG, he is certainly capable of scoring more, showing in 16 and 18 point performances earlier this year against Mitchell and Nichols, respectively, settling into a more pass happy role ever since. If Bonner continues to struggle with accuracy, look for O’Brien to pick up the intensity and bear some of the scoring burden. The Cardinals have undoubtedly played a harder schedule thus far, but despite their opponents, their 78.9 PPG average doesn’t quite keep up with the 94.8 PPG of Hamilton. So, two questions remain: Will Wesleyan’s defense be able to stifle the Hamilton offense? Do Hamilton fans understand how hot their team has started off and how to give them an edge in their home gym (this is a challenge)? I say no, and yes.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 86-83