Tag: Tim Doyle

Déjà Vu?: Hamilton vs. Christopher Newport Sweet Sixteen Preview

We’ve got a Top-10 matchup out in Clinton, New York as the #10 Hamilton Continentals (25-4) welcome the visiting #9 Christopher Newport Captains (27-3) to Margaret Bundy Scott Field House. For the Continentals, their first game was all but a cakewalk, as a last-second layup bounced off the front end of the rim to give them a two-point win. They followed up that nailbiter with a more comfortable 11-point victory, one that featured a more consistent performance on both ends of the floor. The Captains ran through the New Jersey Athletic Conference and continued running through their first two NCAA Tournament opponents, winning both games by a combined 61 points. It’ll be a contrast of styles. They’re built like Amherst on defense, but have more weapons from the perimeter instead of all-around guard play. It’ll be a stern test for the Continentals, one that they’ll hope to pass in order to advance to the Elite Eight.  

Well, the cardiac Continentals survived quite the scare in their opening round matchup with Penn State-Behrend, ultimately pulling out a 72-70 win. Hamilton trailed by as many as 11 midway through the second half before storming back to take the lead late. Kena Gilmour was sensational, racking up 26 points to go along with five boards, and Peter Hoffmann chipped in with 19 points. While the Continentals forced 17 turnovers en route to their win, they struggled to guard the perimeter. Their poor defensive performance was partially corrected in their round of 32 victory against Moravian (35.6% from the field), but they were still able to connect on 40% of their shots from deep. This time, Gilmour and Hoffmann got a big boost on the offensive end from Tim Doyle ‘19 as the senior tallied 16 points. For the second game in a row, Hamilton forced 17 turnovers; however, they committed 17 of their own. They must be more careful handling the ball against Christopher Newport, a team that’s stingy defense only allows 62 PPG and can rebound the ball.

Marcus Carter ‘19 is capable of going off at any point for the Captains

Christopher Newport is riding high into their Sweet Sixteen trip to Clinton after dispatching their previous two opponents quite easily. The #9 ranked Captains feature a squad with a solid balance on offense combined with a ferocious defensive gameplan that packs the paint and makes teams beat them with the long ball. Marcus Carter is the leading scorer for Christopher Newport (16.5 PPG, 7.2 REB/G), and guard Jason Aigner (15.5 PPG, 44.8% 3PFG) will shoot from just about anywhere on the court. In their most recent 85-59 win against Alfred, Carter went off for 26 points and Aigner sunk five threes. Adrian Beasley was a force down low, posting an impressive double-double with 16 points and 16 rebounds. Cutch Ellis also registered a double-double (11 points, 10 rebounds). This one game is a microcosm of the Captains’ offensive game plan: spread the ball around and get everyone involved, because they have plenty of guys who can score and the ball movement will tire opposing defenses quickly. CNU doesn’t force a ton of turnovers (12.6/game), but they make it extremely tough for opposing players to score; they boast an impressive defensive field goal percentage of 37.5%, including 29.6% from beyond the arc. They are relentless when crashing the glass (outrebounded Alfred 49-30) and also attack the rim frequently on offense, averaging over 20 free throw attempts per game.

Hamilton X-Factor

Michael Grassey ‘19

Kena Gilmour and Peter Hoffmann cannot handle all the scoring duties alone if Hamilton wants to advance to the Elite Eight; they need help, and I think Michael Grassey’s play will severely influence the outcome of this matchup. Grassey is the team’s third-leading scorer with 11.8 PPG, however the NCAA Tournament has not been kind to him: In the Continentals’ first round matchup against Penn State-Behrend, Grassey shot 2-9 from the field and registered a measly four points. In their most recent win over Moravian, he was slightly better (eight points) but again shot just 2-8. Grassey will need to exceed his scoring average for to stay in the tournament, as Christopher Newport’s defense seems likely to zone in on Gilmour and Hoffmann and force guys like Grassey to beat them. The senior has had a great career at Hamilton and is not ready to hang it up just yet, so I believe he’ll break out of his mini slump and put up some points.

Christopher Newport X-Factor

Jason Aigner ‘21

Hamilton has not guarded the three ball very well in their first two tournament games, allowing Penn State-Behrend and Moravian to sport a combined 43.8% from beyond the arc. In steps Jason Aigner, and as I touched on briefly earlier in the article, the sophomore is an absolute sniper from deep. He’s taken an insane 252 three pointers (over eight attempts per game) but is sporting an impressive 44.8% success rate. Aigner has connected on nine triples in Christopher Newport’s two tournament wins, and he’ll be salivating at the defensive numbers the Continentals have registered in their last two games. He’s only failed to register double digit points in one of his last sixteen games and hit at least four three-pointers in twelve of those sixteen. He doesn’t attack the rim too often, so the Continentals will have to try and run him off the three point line. Hamilton doesn’t really have anyone who can shoot as well as Aigner from deep, so their best bet is to run the sophomore off the three-point line and force him to beat you off the dribble.

Final Thoughts:

I’d love to take the Continentals here because they are a great feel-good story in the sense that sans Gilmour, the starting five is all comprised of seniors who are making one last run to avenge last year’s heartbreaking defeat in the NCAA Tournament. Gilmour is a special player, and if Hoffmann, Grassey and Doyle all sync up, they’re a very hard team to defeat. I’m concerned the Continentals will get bombarded from deep if they don’t fix their perimeter defense, but an underlying factor is Newport’s ability to bang down low and make the game a physical one. The Captains are by no means a big team (Ellis is the tallest player that plays significant minutes at 6’7’’), but they are no doubt a very physical team who is not afraid to initiate contact. What’s more, they’re a smart team who uses their physicality but doesn’t commit very many fouls. Barring an incredible performance from Gilmour, I think Hamilton’s run ends in the Sweet Sixteen at home, and the Captains advance to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Christopher Newport 77 – Hamilton 71

Let’s Get Ready to Rumble: NESCAC Championship Final Preview


For Amherst and Hamilton, their basketball season is hardly over as the two teams will most certainly earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Before they take a stab at the Big Dance, however, the Mammoths and the Continentals will duke it out for the right to cement their status as NESCAC champions. The two teams played an exhilarating game earlier this month, with Hamilton narrowly escaping with a win on their home court. The Continentals have the home court advantage given the fact that they are the highest remaining seed, but the Mammoths have revenge on their minds and will come in confident they can leave New York with a win after taking down Wesleyan and Williams.

Overview

While there is no such thing as an easy game in the NESCAC, the Continentals have undoubtedly faced weaker opponents in the tournament than the Mammoths. In their semifinal victory over Tufts, Hamilton trailed at halftime but quickly erased the deficit and did not look back. Star player Kena Gilmour ‘20 struggled mightily (9 points, 2-9 from the field), but seniors Tim Doyle ’19 (18 points) and Andrew Groll ’19 (16 points) picked up the slack. Hamilton also received a substantial contribution from their bench players, tallying 29 points. The Continentals shot well from the field (51.7%) and repeatedly attacked the rim, registering an impressive 35 free throw attempts; however, they converted only 20 of those attempts (57.1%). Defensively, the Continentals limited the Jumbos to just 43.1% shooting, but they did allow them to bomb away from three and connect on 14 of their 28 attempts from beyond the arc. It seems as if the Continentals can’t get the entire squad to fire on all cylinders at the precise moment, yet fantastic individual performances by a couple of players per game is enough to keep adding to the win column. Individual performances will not be enough to knock off the stingiest defense in the ‘CAC, and Hamilton will need a more well-rounded performance if they want to secure their first ever NESCAC Championship.

Much like their football team, the Mammoths have a simple recipe for success: defense wins championships. This mantra was put on display against Williams, as Amherst secured their third win of the season against their archrival by limiting the Ephs to just 38.7% shooting and including 26.3% from downtown. The terrific trio of Bobby Casey ‘19, James Heskett ’19 and Kyle Scadlock ‘19 were stifled by the suffocating Mammoth defense, clanking shot after shot en route to a combined 14 for 42 shooting performance. Amherst didn’t have a fantastic offensive performance as a team on Saturday, but Grant Robinson ’21 single handedly willed his squad with a season-defining 32 points. The Mammoths did cash in at the free throw line, shooting 22-23 from the charity stripe. Fru Che had a quiet performance by his standards with just 10 points, but the sophomore has stepped up in big moments before and will look to help Amherst win their first NESCAC Championship since the 2014 season.

Hamilton X-Factor

Kena Gilmour ‘20

Who else can it possibly be in a moment like this? When he’s on, Gilmour is one of the most dynamic players in all of America; however, the probable NESCAC POY has struggled in the tournament thus far, shooting a paltry 32.1%. The Continentals cannot afford to have him struggle in their biggest game of the season to date, and Amherst’s relentless defensive pressure is not the most ideal matchup for Gilmour to bust out of his shooting woes (although he did tally 23 points in their regular season matchup). Hamilton must find ways to get their best player some easy buckets in order for him to get into the flow of the game and regain his confidence. They survived against Colby and Tufts, but if Gilmour fails to ignite the offense once again, Hamilton will very likely lose this contest.

Amherst X-Factor

Fru Che ‘21

I mentioned Che had a quiet performance against Williams, but in Amherst’s previous game against Wesleyan, the sophomore dropped a career-high 30 points. It was Robinson’s turn to carry the offense against the Ephs, but this game is critical for Che to get back on track. In their previous matchup with Hamilton, Che led the Mammoths with 18 points and knocked down four shots from three. Given Hamilton’s woes guarding the perimeter, Che should have plenty of looks to knock down some deep balls. Colby and Tufts had absolutely no problem tearing apart the Hamilton defense, so it’s critical that Che puts up some solid shooting numbers in order for the Mammoths to take home the championship.

Final Thoughts

These two teams are the exact opposite from one another, as Amherst likes to grind down its opponents with defense, while Hamilton seems perfectly content with its run-and-gun style of trying to outscore its opponents. In their regular season matchup, Hamilton won the pace-of-play battle and was able to put up 81 points on the highly touted Mammoth defense. They didn’t shoot particularly well at 42.4%, but they shot 21 free throws and converted 81% of those attempts, a bit of an anomaly for the Continentals. In contrast, Amherst only attempted eight free throws, and despite shooting at a higher field goal percentage than Hamilton, the Mammoths averaged a pedestrian 31.8% from beyond the arc against a team that has not guarded the deep ball well in recent games. This time around, I think Amherst is the better prepared team. They know they have to control the pace of the game, and have shut down two very good offensive opponents in Wesleyan and Williams on their way to this rematch. I do believe Gilmour will bust out of his mini slump and score north of 20 points, but Amherst will connect on more threes than they did in their last outing, and the defense will come up with some big stops late. The Continentals will have to wait another year to see if they can snag that first ever NESCAC Championship.

Final Score: Amherst 77 – Hamilton 73

New Year, New Pecking Order: Holiday Power Rankings

2019 Preseason Holiday Power Rankings

1.) #2 Williams (9-0)

This Williams team looks nearly unstoppable. They have three players averaging over 14 points per game and three averaging over five boards per game, dominating each of their nine opponents thus far. Bobby Casey has been lights out from deep, draining 47.7% of his threes, Scadlock has been electric from the floor, shooting over 60% from the field, and James Heskett has been doing his thing for the Ephs, following up his All-American season with some more balanced numbers among a more talented supporting cast with the return of Scadlock. Matt Karpowicz and Michael Kempton have been doing well all around as a big man unit, averaging a combined 14 PPG and over ten boards, equalling a dual double-double. No NESCAC team can match the size and big-game experience of this Eph team with the Continentals as the only real threat on their road to a second straight NESCAC championship.

Casey and the Ephs are not going to be a fun opponent this season.

2.) #5 Hamilton (9-0)

I’ve been a big fan of this unit that Coach Stockwell has developed for quite some time. They were set on a course for predestined greatness in this 2018-2019 season long ago when the group of Peter Hoffmann, Tim Doyle, Andrew Groll, and Michael Grassey joined forces in the 2015-2016 season. Those four along with the most athletic player in the lineup, junior Kena Gilmour, make up this team that could bring the Continentals their first major men’s sports championship in who knows how long. Gilmour and Grassey are doing most of the scoring in the perfect 9-0 start to the season, averaging 19.7 and 15.2 PPG, respectively. They are a balanced team and Gilmour, Grassey, and Groll all haul in over five boards per game. Their trusty point guard, Doyle, dishes out passes to the rest of the shooters and is the glue that keeps the gears turning and rounds out the deadly group that is, top to bottom, without any glaring weaknesses. 

Gilmour’s Continentals are the biggest threat to the Ephs in 2019.

3.) Amherst (7-1)

This is a bit of a surprise for me as I figured that after losing some studs, the Mammoths would enter more of a rebuilding year. Their only loss so far was to the 2017 national champion Babson Beavers and they received votes in the last D3 Hoops rankings. Their big man, Joe Schneider, is their only senior, boding well for the future of this historically dominant program. Grant Robinson is leading the way on the scoring front with 15.8 PPG with Eric Sellew putting in 9.6 PPG, and sixth man-to-be and deep threat off the bench, Garrett Day, dropping 9.3 PPG in just 17.3 minutes per game. Five Mammoths average over four rebounds per game and while Robinson is the closest they have to a superstar, they are a deep team with many possible contributors and several wild card players who entered into new roles at the start of this season.  

4.) #24 Middlebury (8-2)

This is an unusual year for the Panthers as they are without a true leader on the court like they have had the past few years. Matt Folger is the most talented player on the floor for Midd and has been off to a hot start, putting up 16.0 PPG, shooting over 50% from the field and over 47% from deep which is going to need to be sustainable for the Panthers to have a shot to compete with Bobby Casey and the Ephs. My biggest concern for the Panthers this season was at the guard position as they lost Jack Daly and had a big scoring, passing, and rebounding hole to fill. Jack Farrell, Max Bosco, and Griffin Kornaker have all contributed surprisingly well so far this year, making up the next wave of elite Panther guards. Farrell is averaging 15.8 PPG, 4.9 REB/G, and 4.3 A/G while Bosco is scoring 13.8 PPG in 21 minutes per game off the bench. Kornaker is more of a distributor, averaging 4 A/G and spreads the floor well between Folger, Hilal Dahleh, and Eric McCord down low. While Folger hauls in boards in his own right, raking in 9.5 per game to nearly total an average of a double-double for himself. McCord and freshman forward Alex Sobel are the defensive specialists, grabbing 10.8 and 5.4 REB/G, respectively. The guards are going to need to continue to play lights out for the Panthers with Folger leading the way for Midd to compete in the postseason. Their early season conference match ups should provide a good indication of how this rather unpredictable teams competes against better competition. 

5.) Wesleyan (7-3)

Contrary to Andrew’s (unsurprisingly) favorable preview for the Cardinals entering this season, this team has proven to be human in the early going despite their notable athleticism. They played a non-conference game against Williams and lost by 15—not such a bad result considering the prowess of the second-ranked Eph team. It actually was a poorly played game by the Cardinals, boding even better for their future games against the NESCAC’s top foes as they shot just 25% from beyond the arc. They also hauled in just 28 boards which was likely the main issue—allowing Williams to dominate on defense. Jordan Bonner, Austin Hutcherson, and Antone Walker are the big time scorers for this Wesleyan team, all averaging at least 14 PPG and represent a dangerous trio of shooters. This young team may be a bit inconsistent at times with Bonner as the only senior on the roster, but they should have a shot in some games that they are not favored in due to their athleticism and potential to score. 

6.) Colby (8-2)

This young Mule team is coming out of nowhere to intimidate the other NESCAC competition in the 2018-2019 preseason. While I didn’t really expect them to compete without any seniors on the roster, they are quietly putting together wins with five players averaging double digit point in the early going. Matt Hanna (14.1 PPG, 5.7 REB/G, 3.5 A/G), Sam Jefferson (16.6 PPG, 4.0 REB/G, 40.3% 3-PT), Wallace Tucker (11.1 PPG, 3.7 REB/G, 2.0 A/G), Noah Tyson (11.8 PPG, 8.6 REB/G, 2.6 A/G), and Ronan Schwarz (11.9 PPG, 4.9 REB/G, 58.2% FG) round out a well-balanced, and deep starting five for the Mules. While it’s hard to determine the quality of their opponents, they knocked off Bowdoin pretty easily 83-70 and Bates 86-69. 

7.) Trinity (7-3)

Trinity is a team much like Colby in that they lack a superstar or one player really performing above the rest of the team. Four of five starters (Kyle Padmore, Donald Jorden, Christian Porydzy, and Nick Seretta) average 10 PPG while Connor Merinder adds 8.3 PPG. Jordan and Merinder each haul in 8.1 and 6.4 REB/G, respectively and are the best rim defenders on the team. They lost to pretty badly 84-67 to 16th ranked Nichols but lost by less than five points in their other two hiccups thus far. This team still has a lot to figure out after losing key players last season, much like Middlebury and Amherst, but they seem to have a deep enough lineup so far to be dangerous and a match for many NESCAC foes. 

8.) Bowdoin (6-3)

Despite a below average 6-3 record entering the break, including a loss to rival Colby College, the Polar Bears are boasting a modest four game win streak after staring the season just 2-3. While it often takes some time for younger teams to get going, I didn’t expect to see this from the rather experienced Bowdoin team. Jack Simonds, Jack Bors, Hugh O’Neil, and David Reynolds who represent a similar level of experience to the Hamilton team. In fact, I’d even go to say that similar to Hamilton, this is the year of hope and destiny for the Bowdoin team too. If there was ever a year for them to make a run at the whole thing, this is it. Now I’m by no means saying they’re as talented as Hamilton or Williams, but David Reynolds and Jack Simonds both have POY potential, making a run at the league’s scoring title, and Hugh O’Neil has DPOY potential, bringing down rebounds with the best of them for his entire career. They fall all the way down here to eighth on these first power rankings of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get hot and make a run and host a first round playoff game. 

Simonds, Bors, and O’Neil represent a NESCAC ‘Big 3’ that could challenge any team on any day.

9.) Tufts (4-5)

Nobody lost more key players than Tufts did at the end of 2018. They lost starters Thomas Lapham, Everett Dayton, and, most importantly, Vinny Pace, leaving them with just Miles Bowser and team leader Eric Savage remaining. Savage, however, is the only Jumbo left in the starting lineup from last season as Bowser is no longer on the roster. Tyler Aronson and Carson Cohen are two of the new starters and are freshmen looking to make a quick impact at the college level. Both highly decorated high school players, Aronson and Cohen should improve as the season goes along but likely, as seen in their early record, will be overmatched by against some better teams and will experience up-and-down shooting nights. Rounding out the starting five are sophomores Justin Kouyoumdjian (that is a mouth full), Brennan Morris, and Luke Rogers. Savage has been a bit banged up thus far, leaving room for Cohen to make an early impact, but expect Cohen to come off the bench in games that Savage plays in. Arguably their best game of the season was in a loss to #7 MIT that went to OT early in the season. While the Jumbos might be the last ‘good’ team in these power rankings, they still have the talent to knock off any team on any day, speaking to the depth of the NESCAC. 

10.) Conn College (3-5)

And then there were two. Conn and Bates seem to be far below the rest of the NESCAC competition thus far. I hope they prove me wrong, but each program is in different places and will struggle for different reasons throughout the spring. For Conn, they have their star player, David Labossiere, leading the way but they lack a solid supporting cast to propel them into the fire of the NESCAC competition. Dan Draffan is another great player for the Camels, but Jack Zimmerman, Phil Leotsakos, and Ryan Omslaer need to step up their game for Conn to work to sneak into the playoffs. With that said, however, Labossiere could make a run for the NESCAC scoring title and could take over any game as he is shooting 40% from deep and averaging nearly 20 PPG so far. Draffan scores over 16 PPG and hauls in nearly 10 boards per game and if they can figure out how to score, this team could upset better NESCAC teams on their off nights. 

11.) Bates (2-7)

Bates had an underwhelming but not abysmal 2017-2018 season, but lost one of their starters in Guards Shawn Strickland. They went into the holiday break with five straight losses, two to NESCAC teams (Colby and Bowdoin) which I think clearly makes them the worst team in Maine so far. They shoot from beyond the arc at just 27.8%, make under 60% of their free throws, and only have two players in Jeff Spellman and Nick Lynch scoring in the double digits per game. Lynch and Spellman are also the only Bobcats averaging over six boards per game and it looks as if, unless there is going to be a dramatic shift in the new year, this may be a long season for Bates. Tom Coyne should return after the break in time for NESCAC play, and while it’s been rough so far, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bates make the playoffs and slowly climb up the rankings into the top eight.

Revenge Tour: Hamilton Continentals’ Men’s Basketball Season Preview

2017-2018 Record: 24-5 (7-3); lost to Williams in NESCAC Semifinals, lost in NCAA Sweet 16

2018-2019 Projected Record: 28-4 (8-2), Win NESCAC Championship, Lose in NCAA Final Four

Key Losses: None

Continentals Starting Lineup:

G  Tim Doyle ‘19 (10.0 PPG, 3.3 AST/G, 36.5% 3PFG)

Doyle’s game isn’t very flashy, but the 6’5’’ guard is an integral part of this Hamilton squad. A pesky defender with a knack for causing turnovers, Doyle tallied a career-high six steals against Amherst last season, and averaged more than steal a game in the 2017-2018 season. While his offensive numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, the Nuskayuna native certainly has the capability to put up points. Doyle recorded at least fifteen points in eight games, including a season-high 26 against Utica. He’s off to a great start in 2018-2019, shooting 57.8% from the field and dishing out a team-best four assists/game.

G  Kena Gilmour ‘20: (18.5 PPG, 7.2 REB/G, 1.8 STL/G, 47.0% FG)

Gilmour’s transition from freshman to sophomore included a spot in the starting five, and boy did he deliver. The former NESCAC Rookie of the Year finished second in the NESCAC in scoring and led the league in steals, garnering All-NESCAC First Team honors and a spot on the All-Northeast Region Second Team. He dropped 40 points in Hamilton’s Sweet Sixteen defeat to Springfield, and the junior looks ready to lead his squad to their first ever NESCAC Championship. His 2018-2019 MVP campaign is off to a blazing start, averaging 19.5 PPG on 51.2% shooting to go along with 6.9 REB/G and 1.3 STL/G. The one knock on his game thus far, however, has got to be the poor 3PFG%; Gilmour is just 7-25 from beyond the arc, and he’ll need to find a rhythm from downtown before the conference slate begins.

G/F  Michael Grassey ‘19: (12.8 PPG, 7.1 REB/G, 38% 3PFG)

Grassey is a pure shooter and only needs the slightest bit of separation to get off a shot. His eighteen threes made were good for 10th in the ‘CAC, and connected on 40% of them in conference play. He essentially finished tied with Gilmour as leading team rebounders (despite   the shortest members of Hamilton’s starting five) and recorded four double-doubles. Through the first eight games of this young season, Grassey has upped his scoring average to 15.9 PPG, including a 26 point showing against Transylvania in late November. One thing’s for sure about Grassey: this kid hasn’t forgotten how to shoot. The senior from Winchester is torching opponents from downtown at an astounding 53.2% clip. A word of advice to NESCAC coaches: don’t play zone against this kid.

G/F  Peter Hoffmann ‘19: (13.9 PPG, 5.0 REB/G, 1.4 STL/G, 56.1% FG)

Hoffmann was the team’s second-leading scorer last year and ranked fifth in the NESCAC in field goal percentage (56.1%). His numbers earned him a Second-Team All NESCAC selection, and captains this year’s squad with fellow teammate Michael Grassey. The 6’6’’ senior does most of his damage from inside the arc, and he should probably abandon the three ball all together (8-38 last season, 3-13 this season). Although his scoring has dipped since his sophomore season, the senior can still shoot the rock; Hoffmann tallied 18 points in Hamilton’s season-opening win against Centenary University, and poured in 16 a few games later against Carnegie Mellon. He might not be the player opposing defenses are entirely focused on, but lose sight of him and Hoffmann can and will make you pay.

F  Andrew Groll ‘19: (7.4 PPG, 6.1 REB/G)

Groll is another one of those prototypical centers who does the dirty work on both ends of the floor. A starter his freshman and sophomore seasons, Groll came off the bench in 2017-2018, but regained his starting role for his senior year. Despite averaging 7.4 PPG, Groll was very effective from the field, shooting an even 50%. He’s also a threat on the offensive glass, placing 8th in the conference in total offensive rebounds. This season, the numbers are essentially identical.I know the Continentals are a deep squad with talented scorers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Groll saw some more touches; not only would it establish a low post presence, but he could also attract an additional defenders, opening up the court to allow for a cutting teammate or leave the perimeter exposed.

Breakout Player:

G  Mark Lutz: (11.6 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 0.6 TO/G)

Hamilton has a wide assortment of guards to choose from, so it’s hard for Coach Stockwell to allocate minutes to all his players. Lutz has improved his offensive game to earn those minutes. Just like many of his teammates, Lutz likes the make it rain from three; he’s made at least one three pointer in seven of Hamilton’s eight games, and averages 44.8% from beyond the arc. His most recent performance against SUNY Polytechnic was his best yet, where he scored 13 points and went 3-4 from three. He’s currently averaging close to 8 PPG while shooting 44.8% from long range. Lutz also does a great job at taking care of the ball, sporting a .5 TO/G average. If Hamilton ever finds itself in an offensive spunk, Lutz will most likely be the first guy off the bench to spark a run.

Everything Else:

Last season left a bitter taste in Coach Stockwell’s mouth as the Continentals lost a thrilling NESCAC Semifinal to Williams. Couple that with squandering a three point lead with four seconds to play in the Sweet Sixteen (Hamilton missed two free throws, allowing Springfield to launch a prayer three and send the game to overtime), and you’ve got a team that is angry and motivated to prove they are one of the best teams in the land. Currently ranked #3 in the country, there’s no doubt this Hamilton team is one of the favorites to not only grab its first NESCAC Championship, but also a National Championship; and how could you not love the potential this team possesses? They led the NESCAC in scoring this past season and returned four of their five starters. The one starter they did lose (no offense to alum Joe Pucci ‘18) averaged less than 6.0 PPG and was more of a floor general than anything. This team is an offensive juggernaut, currently averaging 92.1 PPG on 50.9% shooting. They seem to play a more small-ball approach, as their traditional center (Andrew Groll) only averages around 20 MPG. Instead, this team is full of tall, athletic guards that love to shoot.

Defensively, the Continentals were near the bottom of the conference in terms of points  allowed (74.2 PPG), but did lead the NESCAC in turnovers forced by a sizeable margin. So far to date, the averages are trending in the right direction; Hamilton ranks top five in the NESCAC in teams in terms of points allowed (68.8 PPG), turnovers forced (lead the league with 17.3 TO/G) and rebounding (35.6 REB/G). Another major problem the Continentals had last season on the defensive end was fouling; they committed 19.1 PF/G, a number that only Colby and Trinity were able to surpass. Eight games in, and the number is worse, up to 20.3 PF/G (Apparently “keep your hands to yourself” was not preached at the team meeting prior to the season’s beginning). All jokes aside, Hamilton is trending in the right direction on the defensive side of the ball, but conference play will be the telling point as an indication to whether or not the Continentals have turned the page.

#YGTMYFT

I set aside this special acronym for specifically Hamilton. Games are won and lost at the free throw line (just ask Hamilton last season regarding Springfield). I know I’m reopening a wound that hasn’t fully quite healed, but the signs were there: the Continentals shot just 71.4% from the line in 2017-2018, and while that’s good enough for third in the NESCAC, it’s still not a phenomenal average. This season, they’re shooting…..61% from the charity stripe, second worst in the ‘CAC.  Now before Continental faithful freak out, I expect this percentage to increase mainly due to the starting five’s lack of minutes thus far. Coach Stockwell has rotated a majority of his bench players into games for significant periods of time trying to figure out who he can count on for when the conference games come calling. Many of the poor percentages belong to said bench players, with the one exception being Peter Hoffmann (29.6% FT). Nonetheless, I have to say it, because conference games will be tight scoring and there will be times where the Continentals will have to ice the game at the line: Hamilton, YOU’VE GOT TO MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS!!!

After my quick free throw rant, I will say this Hamilton team can be really special. The NESCAC is one of the premier basketball conferences in D3, and there’s a strong possibility the Continentals will come out as the cream of the crop. In fact, I’m going as far as declaring Hamilton as the favorite to secure their first ever NESCAC Championship, and if they clean up the personal fouls on defense/improve their free throw shooting, this team can win a National Championship. This is a squad full of veteran players who got a taste of what they can accomplish during last season’s postseason run, and is one of the best and most consistent offensive team in the country. I expect big things from this Hamilton team, so don’t make me look bad.

It Takes a Village: Hamilton Men’s Basketball Sweet 16 Preview

Editor’s Note: Check out our Middlebury Preview here if you’re looking for more NCAA Tournament coverage. The games tonight are: Middlebury vs MIT @ Ramapo at 5:30 EST, and  Hamilton vs Springfield @ Swarthmore also at 5:30 EST.

#13 Hamilton (24-4, 8-4, Beat Nazareth and #11 York)

For those of us (like myself) who weren’t completely sold on Hamilton this season, this weekend was an eye-opener. They’ve proven capable of winning when it matters, as they stand alone with Middlebury as the only two remaining NESCAC teams. They have the formula – a star in Kena Gilmour ’20, a brilliant coach in Adam Stockwell, a slew of role players who can score efficiently, and the size to matchup with anyone. Now they’ll head back to Pennsylvania to see if they can do what Wesleyan wasn’t able to this season: beat Springfield and beat Swarthmore.

How They Got Here

The Continentals continued their hot play into the NCAA Tournament with a first round win over Nazareth and a huge, 3-point victory at #11 York. Not to diminish the win over Nazareth, but their win over York was the biggest test of the season for this team. The Spartans already had wins this season over #18 Middlebury and #14 Swarthmore, two very strong opponents. Strong performances from Kena Gilmour ’20 (20 points, 7 rebounds, 5 steals) and Tim Doyle ’19 (16 points, 5 assists) helped propel them into the Sweet 16. However, in this matchup with York we saw a bit of a different Continental team. They proved themselves capable of winning a slightly lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game that they hadn’t been able to do this year. Three of their four losses this season have come in games where they scored less than 70 points, and in fact, the win over York was the lowest point total they had all season in a victory. This is the type of adjustment that good teams have to make in order to win in the postseason. Hamilton wasn’t comfortable in a low-scoring affair, but they dug their heels in and came away victorious. This is a big step, but the Continentals still have a game plan they’d like to follow.

Kena Gilmour ’20 has been the star Hamilton needs for a deep tournament run.

X-Factor: G Tim Doyle ’19

Tim Doyle
Tim Doyle ’19 (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)

As I mentioned before, the Continentals have an array of role players who take turns sharing the spotlight with Kena Gilmour ’20. Well this weekend it was Tim Doyle’s turn. He turned in the only noteworthy performance besides Gilmour in the York game, and has shown that he’s capable of exploding from time to time. Despite averaging 10.4 points per game, Doyle has had outbursts of 19 against Middlebury, 25 at Moravian, 26 against Eastern, and 21 at Western Connecticut. These aren’t just strong performances against bad teams, because all four of those teams had winning records, with Moravian making the NCAA Tournament. And we all know how great Middlebury is, just ask Pete. What Doyle has proven is that he is capable of having big performances, like he did against York in the second round. As they advance and play stronger teams, the Continentals will need to have another reliable scoring option, capable of getting hot at any time. It’s role players like Doyle that will make or break the tournament for Hamilton.

The Competition:

Springfield College Pride (lost in Conference Semifinal to WPI)

Jake Ross ’20 is one of the most versatile scorers out there, but he’ll need some help to get past Hamilton.

Springfield played their way to Swarthmore via the Cabrini University regional, where they had two very tight, high scoring wins over Albright College (88-86) and the host, Cabrini (96-88). They claim one of the most efficient players in the nation in Jake Ross ’20, a 6’4”, 200lb slasher whose jump shot is as pure as they come. He consistently puts up 20+ points per game (averaging 24.6PPG) and has put up six 30+ point performances including outbursts of 35, 37, and 39. He also averages 9.9REB/G and 4.0AST/G, and already has a triple-double under his belt this season. The Pride could be in trouble when they face Hamilton, however, because the Continentals have the size to matchup with Ross. They lack a consistent secondary scorer, and this could get them in trouble. Being from Massachusetts, they faced a number of NESCAC opponents this season. Early in the year they were dominated by Trinity and #5 Williams, and lost a tight contest with Amherst, before defeating #15 Wesleyan. Springfield has the capability of getting hot and knocking off anyone, but it all centers around Jake Ross ’20, because they go as he goes.

#14 Swarthmore College Garnet (lost in Conference Final to #12 Johns Hopkins)

The Garnet rolled through the Wesleyan regional, winning both games in convincing fashion. After destroying New England College in their first game, Swarthmore had a heavily anticipated matchup with the host, #15 Wesleyan. The Cardinals proved to be no match for Cam Wiley and co. as Wiley ’19 put up 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists, en route to a 97-75 victory. The sophomore duo of Zac O’Dell ’20 and Nate Shafer ’20 have provided all the help Wiley has needed, combining for 34 points, 16 rebounds, and 7 blocked shots against Wesleyan. The Garnet are very hot as they head back to Swarthmore to fully utilize the home court advantage provided by their 1500 screaming fans. Plattsburgh State is no easy matchup for them, but they haven’t been really tested yet in the NCAA Tournament, so it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on Swarthmore when they face a bit more adversity in the later rounds.

#16 Plattsburgh State Cardinals (won Conference Championship)

Plattsburgh State is a bit of an unknown, at least for NESCAC teams. They were crushed back in December by Middlebury, but at a point in their season where they were struggling a bit. They proceeded to lose their next game, but haven’t lost since. That’s not a typo either. The Cardinals haven’t lost since December 8, winners of 21 in a row. Led by 6’2’, 245lb forward Jonathan Patron ’19, they ran through their conference in the regular season, only losing one game en route to the SUNYAC championship. Patron is averaging 24.3PPG, and 10.6REB/G proving that he is a matchup nightmare. He possesses the quickness to get past bigger guys, but also has the frame to demolish a smaller guard down low. A 39-point, 18-rebound outburst in the second round against Union gives us a glimpse of what he’s capable of, and that he’ll do whatever it takes for the Cardinals to advance (Editor’s Note: Patron is one of my favorite players in the country. A 6’2″ guy destroying everyone who comes at him in the post? He’s amazing.) There are other options on this team, but the key to stopping Plattsburgh State starts with slowing down Patron, which seemingly no one (besides Middlebury) has been able to do.

Plattsburgh St is maybe the hottest team in the tournament, winners of their last 21 games in a row after getting smacked by Middlebury.

 

The Real NESCAC ‘Ship? Hamilton @ Williams Preview

Hamilton (22-3, 7-3) @ Williams (20-5, 7-3)2/24 7:30 PM @ Amherst, MA

Overview:

This could be the matchup between the two best NESCAC teams, but it happens to only have a ticket to the finals and not a banner on the line. Williams travelled to Hamilton just two weeks ago with the Ephs coming out on top in a big way, pulling away by 14 in the second half, winning 81-67. Although both teams are shoe ins to make the NCAA tournament, only one is going to have a chance at the NESCAC title and home field advantage in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament still hangs in the balance. Hamilton shot unusually poorly last time these teams met at 37.3% while their season average is 46.4%. Williams, on the other hand, shot 45% from deep and 54.3% overall, way up from their 47% season average. 

Kena Gilmour is going to need to be at his best to advance to the NESCAC finals.

Hamilton has turned it back around after a brief scuffle at the midway point of conference play, showing the rest of the league that their season may be far from over. They beat Middlebury handily in the last weekend of the year 102-83 and knocking off Tufts without much struggle 91-82 in the quarterfinals despite shooting horribly. If they play anything like they did against the Panthers, they will be unstoppable as they lit it up (52.5% FG, 62.5% 3 PT) and only turned the ball over 11 times. Despite their win against the Jumbos in the quarterfinals, they only shot 16.7% from deep which won’t do the trick against the Ephs as their shooters have been on fire in their own right. Bobby Casey and James Heskett won’t stop scoring, so don’t be fooled by their narrow margin of victory over a weak Trinity team 73-71. Coupling Williams’ recent lack of depth with Hamilton’s recent shooting inconsistencies, this game could swing in any sort of direction.

Williams X-Factor: Centers Matthew Karpowicz/Michael Kempton

C Matt Karpowicz ’20

C Michael Kempton ’19

Despite James Heskett’s breakout season as a PF, his outside shooting combined with a recent lack of rebounds leaves a deficit in the front court for the Ephs. Not a single Williams player had more than six boards in any of their last three games. Centers Michael Kempton and Matthew Karpowicz are a major key to this matchup as they need to battle down low against Peter Hoffmann, Michael Grassey, and Kena Gilmour who combined for 37 boards against Tufts. With the possibility of Hamilton shooting their way to over 100 points like against the Panthers, Williams is going to need to grab offensive boards for Heskett and Casey to have big enough games to keep the Ephs on top. Karpowicz has hauled in double digit boards three times this season and is going to need to bring his A game this weekend as the Hamilton bigs are a big presence down low. 

Hamilton X-Factor: F Michael Grassey ’19

F Michael Grassey ’19

Kena Gilmour and James Heskett are sure to score back and forth in this game, while Grassey needs to get close to matching the production of the new sharp shooting Bobby Casey. Gilmour should be the top scorer for the Continentals, although Grassey is the biggest three point shooting threat for Hamilton. He makes 40% of his shots from beyond the arc and scores nearly half of his point per game on such shots. He has also had some duds along the way though, going 1-7 from deep in a loss against Bowdoin and just 1-6 last weekend. Casey, like Grassey, has had some streaks, including a 14-25 run from deep in his last three games and a 1-10 performance against Bowdoin. The shooting scales will tip in the direction of whichever deep threat is more accurate.

Final Thoughts:

Both of these teams have played remarkably well all year, culminating in what is sure to be a barn burning head to head matchup. Hamilton made a long awaited transition to a powerhouse team while Williams battled injuries and adjusted perfectly with players stepping into new roles and Coach Kevin App leading the way. They have had some tough losses down the stretch—Williams to Amherst and Hamilton to Bowdoin, but they looked good in their opening round playoff games. Hamilton has a deeper scoring arsenal and more big game threats than Williams (due to their injuries) and looks to be more balanced headed into this semifinal. As mentioned, Bobby Casey has come out of nowhere recently to carry the Ephs. Cole Teal has played terribly as the fourth highest healthy scorer behind Heskett (19.6 PPG), Casey (16.2 PPG), and Karpowicz (9.2 PPG). He finally found his shot against Trinity, going 5-9, and without Kyle Scadlock or Mike Greenman, he can’t have any more 4-24 shooting stretches at this point in the season.

In the wake of injuries, Henry Feinberg ’20 has stepped into the starting lineup as a defensive small forward.

The combination of Kena Gilmour, Tim Doyle, Peter Hoffmann, and Grassey who all average over double-digit PPG should stretch out the Williams defense on the perimeter. They do turn over the ball and don’t distribute well, ranking in the bottom half of the NESCAC in both stats. This game is going to be a game of runs, with both teams finding streaky performances throughout their seasons. Both have top of the ‘CAC talent and potential POYs on the court in Heskett and Gilmour, and whichever team wins is going to likely win the conference.

Writer’s Prediction: 83-78 Hamilton

The Big One: Middlebury @ Hamilton Game of the Week Preview

Whatever the schedule makers did this season, they should do it every year. This has the potential to be one of the most exciting NESCAC weekends I can remember. Almost every game has major playoff ramifications. On Friday, Williams and Amherst match up with Williams needing a win to keep their hopes of hosting alive, and Trinity travels to Lewiston in a game that could pretty much decide the final playoff spot. And on Saturday, Wesleyan and Bowdoin battle for their playoff lives, and Amherst plays Middlebury in a game that they will probably need to win in order to ensure an NCAA bid. But the biggest game is on Friday night, as Middlebury travels to Hamilton in a matchup of the top two teams in the regional rankings.

#5 Middlebury (18-3, 7-1) @ #15 Hamilton (19-2, 6-2), 7:00 PM, Clinton, NY

Overview:

If Middlebury pulls this game out, they will pretty much clinch the number one seed and hosting duties in the NESCAC tournament. They will be the only team with one loss, and even if they drop their Saturday matchup with Amherst and end up at 8-2, they will hold the tie breaker with both Williams and Hamilton. If Hamilton wins, their Saturday game with Williams becomes enormous, as they could host themselves due to the tie breaker over Middlebury. But If Williams wins, Middlebury would still host, providing Williams beat Amherst on Friday and Middlebury beats Amherst on Saturday. *Exhales.*  Clearly this is a huge weekend in which every game has playoff ramifications, making it a very difficult weekend in which to pick a Game of Week. In fact, there are so many great games that there is a little rivalry game on Friday and it still isn’t the GOTW. But it’s not often that the top two teams in the regional rankings have a chance to decide the number one seed.

Jack Daly has the Panthers rolling to the fifth spot in the national poll.

This game is fascinating for more than just rankings. It is a matchup between two teams that love to play fast. Middlebury has struggled shooting the ball at times, but owns the boards and dominates on defense. Hamilton, on the other hand, is the top three point shooting team and scoring offense in the league. Middlebury relies heavily on POY frontrunner Jack Daly ‘18 for pretty much everything, on both sides of the ball. The senior star will most likely guard Hamilton’s leading scorer and future of the league Kena Gilmour ‘20. As we outlined in the Stock Report, the Continentals have been playing well despite recent struggles from Gilmour, but against the elite teams they will play this weekend (Middlebury and then Williams,) they will need someone to get them a clutch bucket. That has to be Gilmour. This game may well be the biggest in the history of the Hamilton basketball program, and could put them on the map. Now how’s that for a hype machine?

Middlebury X-Factor: F Matt Folger ‘20

Matt Folger
Chuck Norris ’75/Matt Folger ’20 (Courtesy of Middlebury College Athletics)

This is not my most inventive pick (that honor would have to go to Max Bosco ‘21,) but Folger’s versatility is will be absolutely critical in this game. Even though Hamilton’s offense has slumped slightly in league play, they are still dangerous, especially from the outside. Surprisingly close games against Bates and Bowdoin (and a scary almost comeback by Williams) has shown that Middlebury is susceptible to teams that shoot well from the outside. Middlebury hasn’t hit many threes of their own lately, and basic math tells us that it’s hard to match threes with twos. Middlebury has to hit at least a couple threes of their own to match any runs by Hamilton, and Folger is one of the guys who is supposed to do it. He has struggled mightily from outside in league play, shooting under 30% from downtown. Jack Daly will be somewhat occupied while he chases around Gilmour, so Middlebury will need their second option to be available to create offense.

As important as Folger’s shooting will be, his defense may be even more so. Folger is the most dangerous shot blocker in the league, and his quickness and athleticism makes him valuable on the perimeter as well. Against Bowdoin, he did an excellent job locking down Jack Simonds ‘19, and helped out Daly quite a bit on Tufts’ Vincent Pace as well. However, Middlebury has struggled this season when faced with athletic power forwards, a position that Hamilton is loaded at. In addition to Gilmour, Hamilton’s top scorers are Peter Hoffmann ‘19 and Michael Grassey ‘19, two athletic forwards who excel in the paint.. Folger will probably switch off between those players when he is in the game and needs to do a good job on them, because Middlebury doesn’t have an answer other than him. His rebounding will also be valuable. This is a game in which Middlebury should own the boards, and Folger, at 7.3 per game, is one of the Panthers best rebounders. It’s playoff time in the NESCAC, and in the playoffs stars wins. Folger has the skills to be a star: time to start playing like one.

Hamilton X-Factor: F Andrew Groll ‘19

Andrew Groll
Andrew Groll ’19 (Courtesy of Hamilton Athletics)

As I mentioned earlier, the blueprint for beating Middlebury is to hit threes and win (or at least not lose embarrassingly) the rebounding battle. Hamilton has plenty of three point shooting. Guards Tim Doyle ‘19 and Joe Pucci ‘18 both shoot nearly 40%, and F Michael Grassey ‘19 is one of the more underrated scorers in the league, putting up 15 points per game on 51/41/80 shooting. The rebounding is where Hamilton has more work to do, and where Groll comes in. At 6’8”, Groll is the only true big in Hamilton’s rotation, and is an elite rebounder in limited minutes. He’s averaging 6.3 rebounds per game in just over 15 minutes. And, more importantly for this matchup, 2.3 of those rebounds are offensive. Hamilton will need people to mix it up underneath with Middlebury’s big men, especially Eric McCord ‘19, who has been eating rebounds for breakfast lately. The way that Middlebury wins is by getting teams that like offense (such as Williams) to play ugly, and they are certainly good enough to do that to Hamilton. The Continentals have to be ready to match them, and Groll is their best bet.

Final Thoughts:

Hamilton’s defense can be just as explosive as their offense. Hamilton leads the league in steals at 8.9 per game, and their fast paced offense means that those turnovers become points almost immediately. This activity, particularly on the part of Hamilton’s guards, means they are well suited to handle Jack Daly. Like Wesleyan did earlier this year, Hamilton has the ability to throw multiple long, athletic defenders at Daly, which will make his operations in the paint difficult. One of these guards is Joe Pucci ‘18. If I were to pick a second X-Factor for Hamilton, it would be Pucci. At 6’7”, he is one of the biggest guards in the league, and will spend a great deal of time on the Middlebury star. Gilmour is the best matchup athletically, but Hamilton would be smart to try to keep him fresh for the offensive end, and will probably hide try to hide him on G Jack Farrell ‘21.

Joe Pucci ’18 will be more valuable for his offense than his defense on Friday.

This means that Farrell’s activity will be important. We know Hamilton will make Jack Daly play defense, but Middlebury must do the same to Gilmour. Farrell had a breakout game against Trinity (16 points,) but overall has not been very threatening to opposing defenses. He is a better ball handler and defender than any of the guards off the bench, but if this game gets higher scoring than Middlebury would like, Joey Leighton ‘20 might be a better option, to ensure that Gilmour has to play defense.

Last season, Hamilton came in to Middlebury’s gym with a lot of hype (mostly from us) as “the next big thing” in the league. Then the Panthers ran them out of the gym 115-82, and the Continentals never recovered, losing in the first round of the tournament. Hamilton is now even more obviously “the next big thing” in the league: Pucci is the only senior in their rotation. But Middlebury is still “the big thing,” and they match up very well with Hamilton. The Panthers will bring Hamilton’s high octane attack down to their gritty level, and end up hosting the NESCAC tournament.

Writer’s Prediction: 77-73 Middlebury

Other Friday Games:

# 8 Williams (18-4, 6-2) @ Amherst (14-8, 5-3), 7:00 PM

Connecticut College (6-15, 0-8) @ Bowdoin (14-7, 3-5), 7:00 PM

Wesleyan (17-5, 5-3) @ Colby (10-12, 1-7), 7:00 PM

Trinity (15-7, 4-4) @ Bates (11-12, 3-6), 7:00 PM

2017 NESCAC Championship Repeat? Power Rankings 2/1

While Pete was quick to point out my recent whiffs in predictions, he neglected to say how when I put Hamilton at the top of the power rankings two weeks ago, they were still undefeated and coming off of a win against a strong Wesleyan team. Did I account for the fact that Kevin O’Brien contracted an illness making him unable to play? No. They still had an undefeated record in mid-January, and despite their lack of credible opponents, I became a believer. I am not so certain anymore. Also, I talked about how Bates was a sneaky threat to compete against Wesleyan. After a big win against Tufts and some close games against other top teams, their arsenal of players had a shot to run the table. But I jinxed them. While my credibility is certainly in doubt at the moment, made clear thanks to some familial disloyalty on the website, here are this week’s rankings—Take ‘em or leave ‘em:

1. #6 Middlebury (16-3, 5-1)

Last Week: 87-81 W @ Trinity

This Week: vs. Bowdoin; vs. Colby

While Midd’s shooting has been a question as late as they are waiting for F Matt Folger ’20 to heat back up, Jack Daly ’18 has continued his dinking and dunking (not actual dunking) to grind out wins for the Panthers. While they lack a consistent outside shooting presence, Folger has shown signs of life of late in mid-week games, and Joey Leighton has been a diamond in the rough who came in as the player of the game against Williams a few weeks ago. This weekend provides a limited test in a Bowdoin team hot after knocking off the struggling continentals, followed by what should be a guaranteed win against Colby. They are hot and haven’t lost since the first conference weekend against Wesleyan and have earned this spot with quality wins and a reliable defense.

2. #13 Williams (16-4, 4-2)

Last Week: 75-58 W @ Trinity

This Week: vs. Colby; vs. Bowdoin

Following a valiant comeback effort against Middlebury two weeks ago, the Ephs took care of business against a struggling Trinity team—in more convincing fashion than the Panthers. James Heskett has emerged as a monster, valiantly replacing Kyle Scadlock, pitting him in the middle of the NESCAC POY race. He shot 12-15 against the Bantams, dropping 34 points to go along with four steals. He dominated the floor and made up for poor shooting from Bobby Casey  (4-15 FG). Henry Feinberg stepped in for Mike Greenman (out with injury) in the starting lineup this week and played well in the wake of a solid bench performance against Middlebury. Williams now has a big and athletic lineup that has impressive depth. Look for them to continue winning if Heskett keeps shooting like Steph Curry.

James Heskett ’19 may be the frontrunner for POY.

3. #17 Wesleyan (16-4, 5-2)

Last Week: 60-52 W vs. Tufts, 68-50 W vs. Bates

This Week: @ Trinity

Losing Kevin O’Brien to an illness has surely hurt the Cardinals’ starting lineup recently, but should feature its PG again soon. Two easy wins against Tufts and Bates—unranked mid-tier NESCAC teams, but not exactly chumps—leave them with a spot alone in second place in the standings with just three games to go. Jordan Bonner is starting to find his shot again, and the trio of Nathan Krill, JR Bascom, and Jordan Sears have been putting around 25 points and 25 rebounds per game, a balanced and deep defensive and supportive scoring effort that leaves Wesleyan in a great spot with a light weekend against Trinity. Look for them to climb back up the rankings when they get O’Brien back.

4. Amherst (13-6, 4-2)

Last Week: 75-60 W vs. Bowdoin; 82-77 W @ Colby

This Week: @ Tufts; @ Bates

Amherst is starting to roll late in the regular season as they put up a nice undefeated weekend against a Bowdoin team that looked great against Hamilton. This team also blew Hamilton out. Four of their starters scored double-digit points against the Polar Bears, ending the night at a 50.8 FG%, enough to win against any team. They have now shot at 47% FG or higher in their last three NESCAC games, which shows that are hot and ready to take on the Jumbos and Bobcats this weekend. The Mammoths are slowly returning to their former form, led by Johnny McCarthy ‘18, Grant Robinson ’21, and Michael Riopel ’18. The young and the old are slowly leading this team towards the top of the rankings and standings. Watch out up top.

5. #21 Hamilton (17-2, 4-2)

Last Week: 76-67 W @ Colby OT; 68-72 L @ Bowdoin

This Week: @ Bates; @ Tufts

I would like apologize to Hamilton fans for putting the pressure of the #1 spot in the power rankings in their court. They couldn’t handle it. Back to back losses to Bowdoin and Amherst (75-49!) are showing that perhaps these continentals aren’t as strong as their record appears. I’m not discounting their body of work in its entirety—they are still ranked 21st in the nation. They were simply outplayed against Bowdoin, shooting 36.5% from the field compared to Bowdoin’s impressive 45.2% clip. They also went to OT vs. Colby which is much more of a red flag than either of their losses. Their star, Kena Gilmour, went just 6-20 in the game shooting and is 9-31 in his last two conference games, not exactly carrying the team to victory. Tim Doyle, Michael Grassey, and Peter Hoffmann all have the ability to put up big games though, making their starting five deadly when they get hot. Time for a gut check.

Tim Doyle and the Continentals are struggling heading into the home stretch of NESCAC play.

6. Bowdoin (14-5, 3-3)

Last Week: 72-68 W vs. Hamilton, 60-75 L vs. Amherst

This Week: @ Middlebury; @ Williams

After a big win against the Continentals and a loss against the suddenly scary Amherst team, these Polar Bears have a brutal away weekend ahead of them. They are firmly pitted in the middle of the NESCAC, likely to make the playoffs, but also likely to play their first postseason games on the road. The trio of Jack Simonds, David Reynolds, and Hugh O’Neil are dangerous and capable of going off enough to challenge these top teams in Middlebury and Williams. This could be a preview of one of the early or semifinal playoff games, giving us a peek into how much of a contender this Bowdoin team is.

7. Tufts (15-6 ,4-3)

Last Week: 52-60 L @ Wesleyan; 86-54 W @ Conn

This Week: vs. Amherst; vs. Hamilton

The Jumbos are struggling and are looking less like a championship capable team after several weekends of mediocrity. Their losses to Bates and Wesleyan drastically diminished their overall ranking and raises some serious concerns for this weekend against Amherst and Hamilton. They might lose both but need to at least split to have a shot at a home game in the first round. Their overall lack of scoring depth give them a bleak outlook against most of the top teams. Vincent Pace and Patrick Racy were the lone Jumbos to score over five points against Wesleyan, still only shooting 12-29 between them (decent, but not enough from the two top scorers). For this team to win close games, KJ Garrett is going to need to step up (1-9 shooting against Wesleyan).

Vincent Pace has been trying to keep Tufts afloat, although he was unable to do so in a crushing recent loss to Bates.

8. Bates (11-10, 3-4)

Last Week: 69-56 W @ Conn, 50-68 L @ Wesleyan

This Week: vs. Hamilton; vs. Amherst

I don’t have a whole lot of positive things to say about the Bobcats after falling flat against a Wesleyan team missing its starting PG. 19-57 shooting was not nearly enough to compete, combined with a complete lack of defense. Bates hauled in just 26 rebounds compared to 53 from Wesleyan and basically gave themselves no chance to win. Their two star players Jeff Spellman and James Mortimer shot just a combined 5-14 on the night. For Bates to have any chance to make a run at the playoffs, those two are going to need to make more of an impact.

9. Trinity (13-7, 2-4)

Last Week: 81-87 L vs. Middlebury; 58-75 L vs. Williams

This Week: vs. Wesleyan; @ Conn

While they had a strong performance against Middlebury, a big loss against Williams earlier in the weekend kind of took away any of the positives from the weekend. They couldn’t guard James Heskett and Eric Gendron was the only player with any ability to score (7-13, 18 points). Against Middlebury, although they were losing, they had a ridiculous 32 fouls, leaving the result of the game up to Jack Daly’s free throw shooting ability (he went 18-20 and iced the Bantams). They have a tough test this weekend and need to win against Wesleyan to prove they can compete (I would be shocked if they pulled it off).

10. Colby (10-10, 1-5)

Last Week: 67-76 L vs. Hamilton OT; 77-82 L vs. Amherst

This Week: @ Williams; @ Middlebury

Taking Hamilton to OT was a solid game for a team that has little hope to have a posteason. Sean Gilmore, Sam Jefferson, and Matt Hanna all scored over 15 points in the game and gave the Mules a chance to win. While these three didn’t put their squad over the edge, their youth in the starting lineup—two sophomores and two first years—bodes well for their future success. Maybe not this year, but next year, the Colby team’s stock should rise.

11. Conn College (6-14, 0-7)

Last Week: 69-56 L vs. Bates, 54-86 L vs. Tufts

This Week: @ Wesleyan; vs. Trinity

The good news is that if I don’t say anything good about the Camels, there is nothing for me to jinx. While they finally lost a NESCAC game by less than 15 points (they lost by 13 to Bates), they also had two starters score zero points in the matchup, putting all the pressure on Dan Draffan, Ben Bagnoli, and David Labossiere. A three on five matchup for a team without league leading stars is not a recipe for success.

The ‘CAC is Stranger than Fiction: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/23

Stock Up

Bates

The Bobcats are really raising their game in NESCAC play, particularly against the best teams. They gave #11 Middlebury a terrific game in an 82-76 loss two weekends ago, but it was last weekend that Bates showed signs of being a dangerous spoiler as we near the playoffs. They should have won their 83-81 loss to the 13-3 Salem State, setting them up for a very tough road game against Tufts in Medford. But Bates was ready. They hung with the Jumbos for the whole game, ultimately winning on a layup by Nick Gilpin ’20 with eight seconds left on the clock. The reasons for Bates’ turnaround can be boiled down to shooting. Bates has always relied on the three pointer, but now they are hitting them. In this recent four game stretch, they are shooting 42% from three. Jeff Spellman ’20 is a legit go-to scorer, averaging 17.4 PPG on 53% shooting in league play. Tom Coyne ’18 has also stepped up of late, shooting 40% from three in league play, including 4-8 against Tufts. When Bates is hitting shots, they can hang with almost anyone.

Middlebury Guards Joey Leighton ‘20 and Hilal Dahleh ’19

Joey Leighton
Joey Leighton ’20 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Look I had the margin and winner right in my preview of the Middlebury-Williams showdown, but my Middlebury Key Player was way off. It turned out not to be Max Bosco ’21 (who is still going to swing a key game this season, mark my words) but the other Middlebury guards who turned the tide against the Ephs, namely Dahleh and Leighton. Both players are essential to Middlebury’s success. They have been the only consistent outside shooters on the roster in NESCAC play, at 44% and 50% from three respectively, and won the WIlliams game. They combined for 34 points on 13-21 shooting, 4-5 from three. When Middlebury struggles, it is when Jack Daly ’18 is forcing shots because there is no scoring from anywhere else on the floor. Dahleh is also a terrific defender and is crafty getting to the rim, while Leighton has shown flashes of being able to create for himself off the dribble with a nice step back move. If either or both of these players can continue to put up double figures, Middlebury’s offense could hit a new gear. Also, don’t be surprised to see Leighton maybe climb into the starting lineup over first year Jack Farrell ’21 if Coach Brown feels more firepower is needed.

Amherst’s Defense

From good news (Middlebury winning) we go to bad news (Amherst winning.) I kid, I kid. But seriously, the Mammoths, after looking dead in the water for much of the season, made Hamilton look like a JV team last weekend in handing the Continentals their first loss. And they did pretty much all of their damage on the defensive end. They held Hamilton, the best offense in the league so far by pretty much every statistical measure, to 49 points on 29% shooting. Hamilton had four assists against 14 turnovers, and weren’t able to find any room in the paint. Amherst outrebounded them 48-34 and blocked 10 shots. And there were good signs on the offensive end for Amherst as well. Johnny McCarthy ’18 (12 points, 5-6 shooting continued to trend upwards in terms of efficiency after a rough start) and Eric Sellew ’20 had one of his best games. Amherst’s offense still has a ways to go before it is dangerous, but against Hamilton they showed signs of having the kind of defense that makes it not matter.

Stock Down

Tufts

Sure Bates hit some threes, but Tufts has to be able to take care of the Bobcats at home. And indeed, the Bates loss was the continuation of the struggles that allowed Middlebury to blow them out in the second half the night before; namely, three point shooting and effort. Middlebury had an impossible 70 rebounds in their game against the Jumbos, a combination of many missed shots and Tufts being several steps slow to the ball. And although they out-rebounded Bates, they only shot 1-17 from downtown, and were still unable to put the Bobcats away despite being up six with four minutes left at home, the perfect time to put the nail in the coffin. Tufts looked to be right back in the mix for the top seed, but they may still have a long way to go.

Vincent Pace ’18 had 24 points against Bates, but it wasn’t enough.

Hamilton’s Three Point Shooting

We already covered how dominant Amherst’s defense was against the Continentals, but Hamilton has been struggling from the outside for a while now, and it is really impacting their offense. Although they still lead the league in overall three point shooting at 37%, in league play they have fallen to seventh at just 33%. They have shot under 32% from three in five of their last six games. G Tim Doyle ’19 has especially fallen off a cliff, hitting just 6 of his last 28 three pointers. Kena Gilmour ’20 isn’t a reliable three point threat and neither is Peter Hoffmann ’19, so if no one is hitting around those two dominant paint and mid range scorers, teams can pack it in and really hamstring the pace and spacing of the Hamilton offense. It’s definitely not too late for Hamilton to crater like they did last season, and if they do, three point shooting will be the culprit.

Peter Hoffmann and the Hamilton offense have hit a snag of late, and it’s due to a lack of three point shooting.

Chaos at the Top: Men’s Basketball Power Rankings 1/5

The last week has been a fascinating one from a power rankings perspective. The preseason top two teams, Middlebury and Williams, both suffered losses in which multiple pervasive problems were revealed. Amherst has also been struggling, while surprise teams like Bowdoin and Hamilton have continued to play well. The league is very hard to read heading into NESCAC play, and that’s definitely a good thing. Let’s get to the rankings.

1: #14 Wesleyan (9-1)

The Cardinals have two of the best wins in the league, over #11 Williams in a non conference game and over #21 Nichols. Wesleyan’s defense has always been dominant, but in recent years they have lacked the outside shooting (and scoring overall) to compete with the elite NESCAC teams like Middlebury, Williams and Amherst. This season, they have been able to score when they need to. Jordan Bonner ‘19 (16.8 PPG) has had a lot to do with this, but Austin Hutcherson ‘21 has emerged lately as the kind of X-Factor that could carry Wesleyan to the top of a wide-open league. In a three game stretch that featured wins over Vassar, Brandeis and Fitchburg State, Hutcherson had 14, 27 and 14 with 12 three pointers. However, he was held to zero points during Wesleyan’s loss to an inferior Springfield team on Tuesday night. That loss featured many of the scoring woes that have plagued the Cardinals in recent years, so it seems that Hutcherson will be a crucial factor in determining whether their success will continue in NESCAC play. A back-to-back home matchup with Williams and Middlebury this weekend will be the best possible test of Wesleyan’s legitimacy.

Austin Hutcherson ’21 could throw his name right into the ROY race with some strong NESCAC performances.

2: Tufts (9-3)

Don’t look now, but Tufts is figuring it out. They’ve won five games in a row, and are the hottest team entering league play outside of undefeated Hamilton. Cam wrote a good deal about them in the Stock Report, but the return of KJ Garrett ‘18 makes the Jumbos dangerous again as contenders for the league crown. An electric athlete who can score in bunches and defend multiple positions, Garrett is the kind of player who can swing games all by himself on either end of the court. And he did just that in their tournament. Garrett had 30 points in the two games (18 in a Game One win over Pomona) and added 12 rebounds and five steals. With Vinny Pace back in form and Eric Savage making a big leap (15.6 PPG,) Tufts is as deep on the perimeter as anyone. And there aren’t too many big men in the league who can really exploit their lack of size, so Tufts is right back in the top tier.

3: #4 Middlebury (7-2)

The Panther’s ride to a three-peat has hit a classic New England speed bump. The Panthers have lost two of their last three games, the last one a blowout at home, something that has happened maybe once or twice in the last five years. It must be noted, however, that the losses were to #12 York and #13 Swarthmore. Middlebury has played the toughest non-league schedule of anyone, and they just paid for it. However, Middlebury should still be able to win those games, especially at home. The culprit has been scoring, particularly from the perimeter. Middlebury was relying a great deal on relatively unproven quantities like Jack Farrell ‘21, Joey Leighton ‘20 and Hilal Dahleh ‘19 to aid Jack Daly ‘18 and Matt Folger ‘20 in scoring. And honestly, no one has been hitting and outside shots. In this rough three game stretch, Middlebury is just 16-69 (definitely NOT nice) from three. That’s about 23%. As a result of this, teams are throwing all their defenders at Daly, who is trying to do a little too much against that pressure due to his own struggles from three. Middlebury still has a lot of talent, and should benefit from this early exposure to high level competition. But they have to hit more shots this weekend, especially in their marquee Saturday matchup with Wesleyan.

4: #24 Hamilton (10-0)

First of all, congratulations are in order. Hamilton is nationally ranked for the first time since 2004. And yet, they can still claim that they’re underrated. 10-0 and fourth in the power rankings? Tough break for the Continentals, who have been by far the most impressive team in preseason (albeit with a bad schedule.) Hamilton’s offense is firing on every cylinder right now. They average nearly 100 points per game on 50% shooting and 39% from three. They have four players averaging over 13 points per game, and none of them are seniors. However, their defense will need to improve if they are to buck their recent trend of fading in NESCAC play. Hamilton’s big starting lineup (the smallest starter is athletic Kena Gilmour ‘20 at 6’3”) should lead to versatility, but their forwards are undersized and they often get killed in the paint. Hamilton is last in the NESCAC in opponents field goal percentage at 44%. They will not be able to simply outscore NESCAC teams.

Tim Doyle ’19 had 25 points against Moravian, and is one of Hamilton’s many weapons on offense.

5: #11 Williams (9-2)

The Ephs may be finally starting to notice that Kyle Scadlock is not on the court. Their 73-71 loss to 4-5 Hamline is the worst one of the recent rash of top tier NESCAC losses. Williams has a real problem with finding a secondary scoring option alongside the rising star of James Heskett ‘19. Heskett has done a terrific job taking on the go-to-guy mantle, averaging nearly 23 points per game on over 50% shooting in their last three games. But other players who had been scoring well, such as Bobby Casey ‘19, have recently fallen off. Obviously, one game is no reason to panic. But league games are looming, and Williams starts off on Friday with a road game at Wesleyan, the toughest opening game of any team. Teams will be on notice now about Heskett’s emergence, and Wesleyan (and Tufts and Middlebury for that matter) have plenty of athletes on the perimeter to throw at Casey. As always, I think Williams should up the minutes of Matt Karpowicz ‘20. He’s a scoring threat down low and could force defenses to move around more instead of sitting on the three pointer. We’ll see how they handle Wesleyan on Friday.

6: Amherst (7-3)

 Amherst is entering league play on a decidedly downward trajectory. They’ve lost two in a row with opposite problems contributing to each loss. In a 76-65 loss to Southeastern, Amherst shot only 37% from the field, including a 2-13 showing from Johnny McCarthy ‘18. And then in their next game, a 95-92 loss to Eastern Connecticut, Amherst shot 57% from the field and got 25 points from McCarthy and 22 from Michael Riopel ‘18. However, those two players combined for over half of their points, and they still gave up 95 to the other team. Amherst’s offense goes as McCarthy goes, and like McCarthy, they are struggling for consistency. They still lack a third scoring option that can be trusted every night, just as they did last season. Every year people are waiting for Amherst to turn it on. Their success rightfully makes them a perpetual sleeping giant. But it might be the case that they just don’t have enough talent this season.
7: Trinity (9-2)

I feel like no one, especially us, has said a single word about Trinity yet this season. But as quietly as possible, the Bantams are 9-2 and have won five games in a row. They’ve done it, as is their way, with defense. They are second only to Wesleyan in opponent’s field goal percentage and points per game. Additionally, they absolutely handled Springfield (the team that recently handed Wesleyan their first loss) earlier this season 71-54. Like the Cardinals, Trinity’s strength on defense is balanced out by struggles on offense. In the preseason, Trinity has gotten fairly consistent scoring from Jeremy Arthur ‘19 (13.7 PGG) and Eric Gendron ‘18 (10.3 PPG.) However, Gendron only shoots 22% from three, and Trinity as a team only shot 31% from downtown. Their offense will need to be more versatile in NESCAC play.

8: Bowdoin (8-2)

The Polar Bears have rebounded nicely from their two game losing streak,

Zavier Rucker ’21 has been a great find for Bowdoin this season, and become even more valuable as the season goes on.

winning their last two in impressive fashion. This mini-streak including a non-league win over Bates. Bowdoin has been shooting the ball very well lately, hitting over 50% of their shots in both of those wins. Despite having only started one game, David Reynolds ‘20 has taken over for Jack Simonds ‘19 (who is struggling mightily from the field at 39.5%) as the go to scorer. But the key to Bowdoin’s league success may well end up being a first year. PG Zavier Rucker is still shooting 66.7% from the field in 31.1 minutes per game. He has also shown tremendous maturity in running the offense, especially for a first year. His assist to turnover ratio is 2.5, fifth best among players with over 30 assists. And his size (6’2”, 187) and strength have made him an elite defender already. He averages 1.5 steals per game, and will be essential in guarding the variety of excellent guards in the NESCAC. Bowdoin has the talent to reach heights they haven’t seen in years, and Rucker is a huge part of that chance.

9: Colby (7-3)

The best big man you haven’t heard about plays for the Mules, and his name is Dean Weiner. Yes, I know he sounds like the bad guy in a raunchy college comedy, but he is quietly putting up one of the best stat lines in the league. He averages 10.3 PPG, and leads the league in rebounds (9.4) and blocks (2.8.) But what really sets him apart is his passing. He averages four assists per game, with an A/TO ratio of 2.5. That’s better than many guards. In a league somewhat devoid of star big men, Weiner could be a problem for many teams come league play. His versatility could give traditional big men like Williams’ Karpowicz and Middlebury’s Nick Tarantino ‘18 problems, and he’s good enough around the rim (58.3% from the field) to punish smaller players in switches. Colby may not have enough shooting around him to be really dangerous, but they’ve got a star, the first key to NESCAC success.

Dean Weiner ’19 has done it all this season for the surprising Colby Mules.

10: Bates (7-5)

Bates still simply cannot shoot. They are shooting 39% from the field as a team, and 29% from three, both far and away the worst marks in the league. And this is in non-conference play: they still have to face the elite defense of the NESCAC. Jeff Spellman ‘20 carries the most offensive burden of any player in the league, and as a result, defenses are throwing everything they have at him. He’s only shooting 30% from three, and that is simply because he is forced to take many tough shots. Given this trend, it is surprising that Max Hummel ‘19 doesn’t play more. He is far and away Bates’ best shooter (indeed, one of the best in the league) at 45.5% from three, and yet he only plays 17 minutes per game. In league play, Hummel might and should be forced into a sixth man or even starting role, in order to find some shooting and free up Spellman.

11: Connecticut College (5-6)

The Camels have lost four of their last five games, and it’s kind of unclear as to why. Their teams shooting numbers are excellent (second in the league in three point shooting at 37%,) they have a star in David Laboissiere ‘18 (17 PPG on 45% shooting from three) and a strong secondary scorer in Dan Draffan ‘21. For more on Draffan, check out Colby’s (the writer, not the college) Awards Preview. Generally speaking, the culprit behind the Camel’s struggles is defense, but it seems more that they have a lack of toughness. All of their losses have been by at least 9 points, suggesting that when they get down, they are not good at managing runs by opponents. However, their shooting ability means that they could be a problem if they get hot. They have a good chance to turn it around on Friday night when the shaky Middlebury Panthers come to town.