Category: Stock Report

Mules Making Moves; 1/29 Stock Report

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Upsets (and the Colby Mules)

One of my first power rankings this season highlighted how far above the competition Hamilton and Williams were after the preseason. I’ll get to that misinterpretation more later, but the point for this stock up section is that I would have never expected Colby to upend Hamilton at any point in the season. Amherst has been a bit of a surprise themselves, but the Mules managed to beat them this past weekend also which shows that it really is anybody’s championship to win (except Conn). After all, we saw Middlebury upset Williams recently, which nobody (not even a big Panther fan) saw coming. This is a good year for NESCAC basketball, and while we don’t have quite as many teams in the top-25 as normal, as it is just Hamilton and Williams for now, each weekend contest is much more entertaining to the average viewer. 

The Mules are going up, up, and up after last weekend.

Balance

In a related point, I don’t think we have ever had such a log-jam in the top ten NESCAC teams. Trinity, after an awful weekend, is still just two games out of third place. Now, I have no inclination that they will make a run for a home playoff game, but it’s still good to see how meaningful these last 3-5 NESCAC games will be for each team in the final weekends before the playoffs. The race is particularly interesting when it comes down to who will host the first round playoff games as its five teams in right now for four spots. In an unexpected turn of events, Hamilton now finds themselves tied with Amherst at just 3-2 in conference play and nearly on the outside looking in. Balance is not just in the standings, either, as each team has a group of weapons that make each unit dangerous in their own way. Hamilton has Kena Gilmour amongst four seasoned and talented senior starters, Middlebury has Matt Folger and some out-of-nowhere productive guards, Colby shoots lights out, Williams has three potential POYs, Wesleyan’s Austin Hutcherson is a beast in the simplest of terms; Amherst’s Grant Robinson is breaking out this year, Bowdoin has a trio of terror in Jack Simonds, Hugh O’Neil, and David Reynolds, Tufts’ duo of Eric Savage and Brennan Morris can turn the tables in any contest, and Bates has one of the best guards in the league in Jeff Spellman. Enough said. NESCAC basketball can bring it on any given night.

Gilmour and the Conts need to lock it in before the playoffs if they want to have a chance against the Ephs.

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Preseason Scheduling 

Non-conference games have contributed to our confusion as a writing staff at this point in the season. Hamilton is the main culprit here as they appeared narrowly behind Williams in talent level after they finished their non-conference schedule. Both of the Continentals’ losses have come in conference, while Amherst has also lost two of their three games this season against NESCAC teams. Colby, on the other hand, has been making moves up the power rankings, showing that their early season blunders were more of an aberration. Bates too shows that not all preseason schedules are made the same as they were 3-9 and now find themselves 3-4 against NESCAC teams. 

The Mighty Chickens and Words of the Jealous

Trinity needs to figure out whatever went wrong last weekend.

We often have complaints during football season from non-Trinity football fans, claiming that the Bantams are athletically far and above any other NESCAC school due to their “lower” academic standards. I do not endorse or agree with such claims and firmly believe Trinity should belong in the NESCAC for good, their basketball team’s performance last weekend goes to put those fans’ opinions to rest. Sure, they are great at football. But if you were a recruit looking to play at a high academic school, why is it so ridiculous to think that the majority wouldn’t choose a school in an urban setting and one with a fantastic track record of success. As DIII sports continue to get more competitive, it is no surprise that Tufts, a stone’s throw from Boston, has made a quick transition into a successful football program either. Regardless, since football is only one of many NESCAC sports, schools’ success in other areas should indicate whether all of their students have an athletic advantage. Trinity, as good as they are at football, really threw up a dud against Middlebury last weekend. No, their season is not over and they could easily make the playoffs, however, 22.4% FG will not win any games, ever. Their high scorer, Donald Jorden, put up 11 and led the team with a 50% shooting night. That definitely can’t happen again. And to those NESCAC fans that continue to find excuses for why other teams can’t beat Trinity: If you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen. That’s a hot take on a cold winter day.

Even the Mighty Fall: Stock Report 1/23

Stock Report 1/23

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Potential end-of-season drama

Right when it was starting to look like no one would beat Williams, they lost. Then, they lost again. Now the best record in the NESCAC belongs to none other than the Hamilton Continentals, while Wesleyan shares the top spot in the conference standings with the Ephs (although Williams does hold the head-to-head tiebreaker). Additionally, the Amherst vs. Hamilton game that was supposed to happen this past weekend was postponed due to the snowstorm. That game will surely have playoff seeding implications given that these two teams are at the top of the conference, and the fact that it’s being rescheduled later in the season will add even more excitement to what was already going be a very exciting finish to the year. Everyone in the league except for Conn has picked up a conference win, and everyone except for Colby and Conn have two, so it’s exciting to see a little bit of parity between the teams (especially coming on the heels of football season). We’re looking at yet another terrific year for NESCAC basketball.

Bates’ playoff chances

It’s no secret that non-conference play was a disaster for the Bobcats, but they’ve looked like a completely different team in the New Year. The win at Colby was a promising way to start, and then Bates put up two valiant efforts against some of the league’s best teams in Williams and Middlebury but came away empty-handed. Beating Tufts for the 3rd straight year (and 4th time in 5 years) was nothing short of a statement win. The Jumbos haven’t had the best season ever, but they’ve already recorded wins over Middlebury and Bowdoin – two of the teams that defeated Bates. Tom Coyne ’20 has been a huge part of the turn around as he returned from a shoulder injury with a very hot hand. The junior put up 18 points off the bench on 6-12 shooting including 3-7 from downtown against the Jumbos, his third consecutive 17+ point game. The first half on Saturday was all about Nick Lynch ’19 as he scored 20 of his game-high 22 points thanks to a barrage of midrange jump shots. Kody Greenhalgh ’20 also turned in a very fine effort, posting 14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. The Bobcats may have started the season on a sour note, but they’re playing well when it counts so don’t count them out of the postseason just yet.

Middlebury as a title contender

Max Bosco is playing his way out of contention for our 6th Man of the Year award

Definitely the best way to secure a spot in the “stock up” column is to take down the top team in the league, and the Panthers did just that on Saturday with a convincing 80-66 win over Williams. Jack Farrell ’21 led the way with 24 points on a very efficient 9-14 from the field, and he also dished out 5 assists. An important thing to note for Middlebury is that Coach Brown recently decided to insert Max Bosco ’21 into the starting lineup in place of Griffin Kornaker ’21, and it has paid dividends. Bosco put up 21 points in his first game as a starter, and then put forth an 18-point, 6-rebound effort in the win against Williams. This is the type of spark the Panthers were looking for as they’re now looking like one of the scarier teams in the conference. The loss to Tufts hurts but other than that Middlebury has a nice looking resume and adding a win over Williams certainly doesn’t look too shabby either. They’ve got Trinity, Bowdoin, and Colby in the near future, so it’s a good time for the Panthers to snag a few more wins before they have to finish the year with two of the very best – Hamilton and Amherst.

Stock down

Colby in close games

The Mules have been off to a great start, but something that stands out as a real area where they have struggled is playing close games. Colby has shown an inability to win close games, especially when it counts. They’re 3-5 this year in games decided by 10 points or less and 1-3 in one possession games. These aren’t great numbers from a team who wants to be making an impression on the rest of the league. It’s especially frustrating when two of those close losses came to Bates and Bowdoin in conference play, both teams that the Mules defeated in their non-conference matchups. Winning close games more often than not comes from a combination of coaching and player maturity. Coach Strahorn is doing an excellent job so we know that isn’t the issue; the reason they have struggled so much down the stretch is that Colby only has one senior on their roster and he isn’t one of the guys who would be handling the ball at the end of a close game. They’ve got talent on their team, but the guys are young – they need these experiences in tight matchups to continue learning for the future. This will serve them very well in one, two, three years from now when they’ve got a team full of players who have been there time and time again. For now they’ll have to try and claw (hoof?) their way in it with what they’ve got.

Note: I wrote this before Colby’s 101-98 victory over Husson on Tuesday, so it looks like they’re already starting to turn things around.

Williams’ depth

Mickey Babek will have to step up if Williams is going to make a run

There’s no way the Ephs weren’t falling in the “stock down” column after suffering their first two losses of their year to Amherst and Middlebury, respectively. They’re fortunate that the Amherst game was technically a non-conference affair and that they get another crack at the Mammoths at the end of the year. Either way, Williams isn’t all high and mighty like they were before. In the loss to Amherst they had 16 points off the bench and against Middlebury it was a mere 3. Literally only 3 points. This is not characteristic of a team that wants to compete in the NESCAC even, let alone on a national scale. They need more production from guys off the bench like Mickey Babek ’20, Marcus Soto ’19, and Marc Taylor ’21, each of whom have the capability of hitting shots and playing a bigger role. As I like to say, no reason to panic for the Ephs. They’re still very much in the driver’s seat and with Trinity, Colby, and Bowdoin on the horizon they’ve got a very nice chance to stay on top.

Still No Clarity: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/15

Freshman Andrew Kelley’s (‘22) game winner against Colby boosted Trinity’s chances of securing a playoff berth.

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Austin Hutcherson’s ‘21 MVP Campaign

Hutcherson displayed flashes of his full potential during an impressive freshman season, but I don’t think many people would have pegged the 6’6’’ guard to be at the forefront of the MVP conversation. He’s averaging 24.0 ppg in conference play thus far, sporting a ridiculous 46.7% clip from beyond the arc. His offensive game doesn’t strictly revolve around the three ball, however, as he averages more than three trips to the free throw line a game and converts 88% of his freebees. Hutcherson single-handedly willed Wesleyan to huge conference victories against Middlebury and Hamilton, exploding for a combined 78 points; and although the sophomore struggled against Amherst’s stifling defense, he still managed to sink the game-winning shot with 3 seconds left. He’s put the Cardinals in prime position to snag a top seed come conference tourney time, and it’s hard to ignore the multitude of offensive skills Hutcherson brings to the hardwood day in and out. All aboard the Austin Hutcherson hype train.

Late Game Heroics

What a weekend in the ‘CAC. NESCAC fans were blessed with not one, not two, but three game-winning shots during Saturday and Sunday’s slate of games. The first one concerned Wesleyan and Amherst, where Austin Hutcherson sank a shot off the glass with three seconds remaining to give the Cardinals a 62-60 win over the Mammoths and cement their place as the number two team in league play. Then, in what most certainly is one of the bigger upsets we’ve encountered this season, Brennan Morris (‘21) of Tufts drilled a baseline jumper with seven seconds to play, shocking the Middlebury Panthers en route to an 86-84 victory. Last, but certainly not least, Trinity’s Anthony Kelley (‘22) took an inbounds pass with less than four seconds left and converted a layup as the buzzer sounded, finishing off Colby 62-60. It was an exhilarating week of basketball in one of the country’s premier D3 conferences, and here’s to hoping the madness continues.

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Hamilton’s FT% on the Road

When I wrote the team preview for Hamilton, I alluded to their struggles from the free throw line in the 2017-2018 season and how that number would have to improve if the Continentals wanted to challenge for the NESCAC Championship (and beyond). Well, it’s safe to say they must’ve not read the preview, because the numbers are still bad. In particular, the Continentals are sporting an abysmal 55% clip from the charity stripe when playing on the road. Up until this weekend, Hamilton had the talent and scoring capabilities to overcome their poor numbers at the line, but it finally caught up to them this weekend at Wesleyan. The Continentals converted just 53.8% of their free throws (7/13), while the Cardinals sunk 22 of their 23 free throws. In a game where neither team shot particularly well, it was free throws that ultimately decided the outcome. Considering Hamilton has two huge road games remaining against Middlebury and Williams, they might want to consider setting some practice time aside for free throw shooting.

Middlebury’s Defense

Thomas Coyne ‘20 nails one of fifteen threes for the Bobcats against a porous Middlebury D.

The Panthers had rather pedestrian numbers on defense throughout the non-conference slate, but they’re giving up an additional 10 ppg in conference play. Allowing 93 points to Bates (who averages less than 75 ppg) and 86 to Tufts is not the recipe to success. Through four conference games, the Panthers are allowing opposing teams to shoot 49.1% from the field, including 40.9% from downtown. They’re not forcing a ton of turnovers, and based on their assists allowed/game, opposing NESCAC teams are moving the ball with ease against Midd’s D. They have such an explosive offense that can keep them in any contest, but the defensive side of the ball needs more attention if the Panthers want to right the ship.

Off to the Races: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/8

Now that one weekend of conference games is in the books, we can see how exciting this season is truly going to be. There is really no apparent hierarchy and every team displayed some sort of weakness that can be exploited as we move forward in the season. This weekend was really a microcosm of what NESCAC basketball looks like on a regular basis. We had a few blowouts, a few tight games, a few defensive battles, and a good number of shootouts. There was seemingly no discernable pattern of who’s beating who, and that’s exactly the way we like it. Every weekend is an interesting one, nearly impossible for us to predict. With that being said, let’s take a look at the best and worst performers of the first weekend to see where everybody stands:

Stock Up

Williams dominance

It was about as successful as it could have gone this weekend for the Ephs as they took care of Wesleyan and Conn College at home. The Wesleyan game especially passes the eye test because they were able to prove that they could win a defensive battle. We know that Williams can score, but the fact that they led a low-scoring game pretty much the entire way against the talented Cardinals shows that they can win in any fashion. Bobby Casey ’19 led the way against Conn College, posting a game-high 24 points and 8 assists in a rout of the Camels. The Ephs were playing as well as anyone in the preseason, but they’ve brought their dominance into NESCAC play and that is a scary sight for teams around the league.

Jack Simonds as a leader

Everything was falling for Jack Simonds this weekend, but we’ll find out if he is really here to stay

The top performer of the weekend was undoubtedly Jack Simonds. The senior put up an astonishing 55 points on 22-33 from the field and grabbed 15 rebounds combined in the matchups with Bates and Tufts. It felt like Simonds couldn’t miss all weekend and he certainly threw his name back into the conversation for NESCAC player of the year with his efforts. After a breakout sophomore year, Simonds had a bit of a down season in his junior campaign and Bowdoin struggled at times without his leadership. He has come into conference play firing on all cylinders after torching Bates and putting up a valiant effort in a loss versus Tufts. Bowdoin comes out of the weekend right in the thick of things at 1-1, but things are looking bright if Jack Simonds can keep putting out performances like these.

Stock Down

Hamilton dominance

This is not meant to take anything away from a win to start off NESCAC play for the Continentals, but the Bantams tested them on Sunday. It took a carrying violation against Trinity and then a basket with 0.8 seconds left for Hamilton to sneak out the win. The Bantams were embarrassed by Amherst in Western Mass on Friday so morale was low when they rolled into New York for their Sunday matchup. Hamilton couldn’t capitalize, and Trinity hung around for much too long in this one. Kena Gilmour ’20 was not himself at all, putting up 15 points and snatching only 4 rebounds, but fortunately Michael Grassey ’19 picked up the slack and was able to do just enough to secure the win. The Continentals are doing just fine, but being ranked #6 in the country is a very impressive feat. It’ll take a much less sloppy effort if they want to compete with the other top teams in the league moving forward. 

Clarity in the middle

Austin Hutcherson ’21 is identifying himself as the top option so far for the Cardinals

It’s never easy to identify the best teams this early in the season, but there are 6 teams that finished the weekend 1-1, and it wasn’t exactly the 6 that we may have thought. After looking really bad to start the season, Bates snagged a win at Colby and even Conn College battled tough with Middlebury until the very end. Tufts started off slow losing to Colby on Friday, but turned around and took care of Bowdoin on Saturday. Wesleyan looked very impressive at times too, but here they are at 1-1 with the rest of them. Trinity and Conn each went 0-2 on the weekend, but the way they played we can tell there won’t be a winless team in the NESCAC this year. All we can do now is wait another week to get a bigger sample size and start making some better assessments. I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a few 2-2 teams at the end of the second weekend…

Hope for Connecticut

I will admit that Wesleyan had a solid weekend and doesn’t have much to feel bad about at the moment, but Conn and Trinity aren’t doing them any favors in the early going. The state of Connecticut as a whole went 1-5 this weekend and only one of those losses was by fewer than 12 points. I’m not saying I expect to see these three schools at the top of the standings, but they certainly haven’t helped make a name for themselves so far. There’s never an easy game in this conference, so there’s no time to relax for any of the schools down in the NESCAC’s warmest state. Another weekend like this and we might have to start looking forward to the spring season when the southern schools get to have their moment.

Top of the Podium: Week 8 Stock Report

Week 8 Stock Report

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Dynastic Control: The Bantams have won again and as their parents pointed out after we predicted them to be 6-3 in our season preview article, they really don’t lose often. Not only are they on the up and up, getting better year to year relative to the rest of the NESCAC competition, but even their holes, which we thought would be at QB this year, are ridiculously easily filled. They have had not one but two elite QBs under center this year in Jordan Vazzano and Seamus Lambert and clearly will have the reigns on the NESCAC for the near future. The other contenders of Amherst and Tufts were no match in their head to head with Trinity and Williams, who kind of seems to own the Bantams, cannot reach any level of consistency to bring the title home to Williamstown.

Ellie Greenberg after scoring the winner in the NESCAC championship.

Predictive Power: I am giving credit where credit is due today. Matt Karpowicz hit the nail on the head with his game preview of Amherst at Trinity last weekend. Max Chipouras blitzed the Amherst defense and had a career game, nearly capping off his incredible run at Trinity with a clutch 203 yard, two TD performance. He averaged a nasty 8.5 yards per carry and showed that the league’s best D isn’t so unstoppable. Or maybe the Bantams are just that good. Either way, we got one right, we finally got one. Actually, we got two. Ryan Moralejo deserves a shoutout too for his prediction in the women’s soccer NESCAC championship game, calling the Midd over Williams upset, that, quite frankly, nobody saw coming. I will say I have no idea how he ever thought that the score would be 2-1 with each team having such a stellar back line, but I’ll cut him some slack. Roll Pants.

Stock Down

Eph Leadership: This week’s 21-14 loss to Wesleyan is a tough one to swallow for the Williams team as they were riding in off a recovery win against Hamilton into their senior day and final home game of the season. They played against a Cardinal team that has looked unprepared all season and couldn’t get anything done once Bobby Maimaron left the game with an injury. They got destroyed by Middlebury, who has looked different week to week, only after TJ Rothmann exited the contest. The change of play after losing their leaders is what separates this still talented team from a program like Trinity. For the Bantams, when one guy goes down another takes his place, for Williams those spaces continue to be vacant.

Jackson Bischoping has promise, but he allowed two fatal turnovers against Wesleyan.

Mule Muster: I titled last weekend’s preview article “Trap City,” and it turned out that we were right, although not regarding the game that I imagined. Wesleyan beat Williams 21-14 and Bowdoin got their first win by knocking off Bates 31-14, but I thought Colby would at least give Tufts a slight run for their money coming off two good weekends of football. I couldn’t have been more wrong about that one. The Colby team put up a real dud to say the least, falling 48-0, managing just 124 yards of total offense. Their defense was useless in this game as the Mules offense only turned the ball over one time! that means that the defense was responsible for each of the five rushing and two passing TDs allowed.

Everybody Likes a Spoiler: Week 5 Stock Report

Stock Report 10/15/17

Just when we get over the halfway point of the season and think we know what’s going on, something changes. Middlebury came out of nowhere to upset one of the league favorites in Williams, and Hamilton erupted for the most dominant offensive performance of 2018. While we still got most of the picks right (4/5), the next few weeks will be all the more unpredictable with higher stakes.

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Hamilton’s Legitimacy

Hamilton was one of my picks to move up to the top half of the league this year given their aggressive number of returning players. With such a veteran presence on the playing field, they should be able to beat some younger teams (Bowdoin, Bates, and maybe Midd and Williams) due to lack of mistakes and experience. They should at least put up a fight against some of the tougher teams in the league. While they were dominated by Tufts, Amherst, and Trinity, those are three of the four most talented teams in the league who also have heavy veteran presences. They had four passing and four rushing TDs last weekend against a Bowdoin team that nearly knocked off an inconsistent but talented Middlebury team. They also beat one of the league favorites in Wesleyan, and as a result, while they are clearly not on par talent wise with some teams, I wouldn’t be shocked if they finished above .500.

Middlebury’s Game Management

Peter Scibilia is showing us that he is a NESCAC back to be reckoned with following his 140+ yard performance against Williams.

The first four weeks against Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Colby, and Amherst, the Middlebury Panthers looked rushed, unorganized, and uncertain about their offensive identity. Their talented skill players, depth at both WR and TE, and capable rushers, were not utilized the way anybody envisioned they would be. An injury to senior captain and starting QB Jack Meservy opened the door for Will Jernigan to manage the entire game against Williams. While Meservy flashed talent in the pocket last year and at times this year, their system using both Meservy and Jernigan made it so neither QB could get any kind of rhythm. They out-talented Colby and Bowdoin, but were beat by comparably talented and better managed Amherst and Wesleyan teams. They couldn’t have looked more different against Williams in their 21-10 victory. Jernigan may not have had a sexy passing day in his starting debut, throwing for just 162 yards, but his use of the RPO and QB designed runs had the Eph defense reeling. The Panthers rushed for 278 yards and ate up the clock. They don’t really have a shot at a title anymore, but they could be some scary spoilers and bring the heat in trap games against Trinity and Tufts. Also a not so talked about aspect of the game–their blocking was phenomenal.

The Way Things Should Be

I said that Max Chipouras was the Trinity X-Factor in their game against Tufts. I stand by that pick, and also questioned whether he lost a step after some recent duds of performances. Well, if there’s anything I’ve learned from covering NESCAC football for my four years of college, it’s that Chipouras is the best back in the league and that he should dominate. Thankfully, after his game against Tufts, everything makes sense again. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the ground and accumulated 164 yards and a TD, showing us once again exactly what he’s made of.

Stock Down

Williams Rush Defense

Apparently Rothmann broke his jaw on Saturday, and if so, can the Eph defense control the run without him?

After writing that Amherst, Trinity, and Tufts had the best run defenses in the league, Karp gave me a hard time about how his boys in Williamstown deserves some more recognition. He had a good point that some of those other teams hadn’t faced many competent rushers and Williams did limit Chipouras to less than 4 yards per carry, but his claims didn’t hold up against the Panthers. Williams lost their biggest defensive playmaker, TJ Rothmann, to a jaw injury in the first quarter, leaving them without a leader on the field and without any confidence against a young Middlebury rushing attack. Middlebury kept their pace of play quick, and the Williams linebackers and defensive lines got lit up all afternoon, losing control of the game. If Rothmann isn’t good to go next weekend against Tufts, Ryan McDonald could have a big game running a similar style offense to Will Jernigan.

Maine Football

Nate Richam had us all excited after his week two performance against Middlebury, but where has he (and Bowdoin’s O Line) been since then?

I guess this one isn’t as much of a stock down as it is a ‘stock not up,’ since Maine football hasn’t really been too hot lately. Bowdoin gave us all some hope earlier this year when Nate Richam dominated Middlebury on the ground, while Griff Stalcup and Austin McCrum have showed both talent and chemistry with their unique offensive scheme. Colby has made some changes by starting first year QB Matt Hersch and coach Jack Cosgrove has attempted to make his mark on the NESCAC, failing thus far to turn around the Mules program. Bates, like Colby, had high hopes with their new head coach, Malik Hall, but have struggled to transition to the ‘air raid’ offense that was promised, likely due to the lack of a talented passing QB. Colby allowed 35 points with no turnovers on offense, Bowdoin allowed eight touchdowns (although they did turn the ball over 5 times), and Bates allowed 35 points also without turning the ball over on offense. While we don’t expect these teams to have great offensive performances against tough defenses, they will never have a chance if they can’t limit even the not-so-scary offensive attacks that the NESCAC has to offer (Amherst and Hamilton this week). Maybe nobody should win the CBB this year as all the Maine teams are 0-5 and at this point, nobody wants a participation trophy, right?

A QB League without the QBs? Week 4 Stock Report

Week 4 Stock Report

After another ho-hum week in the NESCAC, one that saw all 5 favorites record victories, it appears that we are finally set to heat up. With Tufts set to visit Trinity and Middlebury heading to Williamstown, the standings are due for a shakeup. Heading into what appears to be a make or break Week 5, let’s see who’s playing their best (or worst) football at the right time

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Tufts’ Title Chances

It’s not like the Jumbos’ 28-0 win over Bowdoin to improve to 4-0 was a surprise, but it sure was impressive. They outgained Bowdoin 522-230, logging 29 first downs while only allowing 11. The offense has quietly developed into perhaps the most well-rounded unit in the league, and it’s come into full picture now that top offensive weapon WR Jack Dolan ’19 has returned from his early season absence and continues to get back into the swing of things. 6 different ‘Bos carried the ball more than 5 times, and 4 of them logged more than 50 yards each, with only Mike Pedrini (14) rushing more than 8 times. QB Ryan McDonald ’19 went a surgical 19-25 for 237 yards in the air, with 8 different receivers making catches. As was acutely predicted at the start of the season, McDonald has as good of a chance to win POY as any in the league right now. Oh, and their defense pitched its first shutout since 2006. Tufts is the real deal.

Winning Back-to-Back Defensive Player of the Year Awards

Anyone who watched the Amherst-Middlebury game on Saturday, a 21-0 Mammoth win (that still feels weird to say), would be able to tell you how much Andrew Yamin ’19 dominated. The box score doesn’t really do it a justice, and it still reads 11 tackles and 3.5 sacks. The senior LB/DE was anointed the league’s top individual honor for a defensive player as a junior, and he looks set to repeat already. There is obviously a lot of football left to be played, but the leader of this elite Amherst defensive unit (8.75 PPG) looks like a man on a mission.

Jonathan Girard 

Not getting too creative here—Girard is simply playing on a different level than any other receiver in the league right now. The sophomore from Trinity had 5 catches for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns catches against Hamilton. At 6’4 and 210 pounds, he is an absolute matchup nightmare, and defenses everywhere should shudder to think about what it might look like if he was catching balls from a QB with a 50%+ completion percentage. He’s already eclipsed the 600-yard mark and we’re not even halfway through the year. Tufts’ secondary will provide the biggest challenge he’s faced so far and I can’t wait to watch him compete in what may be the biggest game of the season so far.

Championship Drama

It’s finally here! Any fan of NESCAC football knows the struggle for parity the league faces, especially early in the year. With the exception of Hamilton’s upset of Wesleyan in Week 3, and maybe Williams’ win against Trinity that same Saturday (it was a home game after all), every game has shaken out pretty close to how it should have. If you really want to make an argument for Wesleyan visiting Ellis Oval for a night game against Tufts, then I won’t fight you on that, I guess. But that is finally in the best—the season will really start in earnest on Saturday in Somerville. Tufts and Trinity is the first game of the year that is a true toss-up with championship implications. With a second loss, Trinity will essentially be eliminated from a chance at a third straight title, and while it would be harsh to rule out Tufts after just one loss, it’s hard to imagine them running the table with visits to Amherst and Middlebury, as well as a contest with Williams still on the schedule. Week 6 will have both Williams @ Tufts and Amherst @ Wesleyan, and then we’re really off to the races. Buckle up folks.

Stock Down

Middlebury’s Chance at a Winning Record

All things considered, it wasn’t as bad as the box score might indicate. With the exception of the Andrew Yamin sized hole in their backfield, the O-Line played spectacularly, and their defense gave them a chance, but the offense couldn’t get on the board in Middlebury’s 21-0 loss to Amherst. Will Jernigan ’21 played the majority of the game at QB after Jack Meservy ’19 went down with a shoulder injury, but could only muster a 15-32 line for 133 yards and 1 INT. I keep hearing about all the dangerous wide receivers Midd has, but they must be referring to somebody else. Jernigan has accuracy issues but when he puts it on the money you would expect his guys to hang on to the ball. The Panthers’ WRs shot themselves in the foot with all the drops on Saturday, as well as failing to really make an impact at all through 4 weeks. All-League TE Frank Cosolito has pulled his weight with 4 TDs, but not one Middlebury pass catcher is averaging more than 40 receiving yards per game. 40! Someone needs to distance themselves from the pack and start carrying this offense, because a 4-5 (or worse) record is seriously on the cards for a team that has Williams, Tufts, and Trinity left on their schedule.

Good Quarterback Play

We definitely took last year’s quarterbacks for granted. I don’t just mean the Sonny Puzzo’s and Jared Lebowitz’s of the world, but also last year’s versions of Mark Picarillo, Ollie Eberth, and even Bobby Maimaron. The guys under center have definitely taken a step back. Through 4 games of the season, the portion of which usually consists of the top dogs inflating their numbers against inferior competition, only 1 signal caller has thrown for more than 200 yards a game. I feel confident in saying that there are a lot of people reading this that could rival that if all they had to do was throw it up to Jonathan Girard and Koby Schofer like Jordan Vazzano does (and his 42.5% completion percentage). Last year 6 different QBs broke that threshold at the end of the season. Obviously a pair of them graduated in Puzzo (Trinity) and Lebowitz (Middlebury), but the other 4 returned and they’ve regressed. Mark Picirillo (Wesleyan) looks human without WR Mike Brueler, Ollie Eberth (Amherst) has been reduced to even more of a game manager than he was last year, and Kenny Gray (Hamilton) just hasn’t taken that next step that many thought he would as a junior. Most surprising perhaps is the reigning Rookie of the Year in Williamstown, Sophomore QB Bobby Maimaron. Maimaron has been fantastic on his feet, leading the league with 6 rushing TDs as well cracking the top 10 with 64 yards per game, but the arm hasn’t been there yet. I don’t know how much of this is a Maimaron thing and how much is a Williams offense thing, but he’s yet to pass for more than 154 yards in a game this year. He’s also only throwing the ball 21 times a game, so maybe they’ll take the leash off and let him ride a little more for the second half of the year.

Shootouts

Through 4 weeks consisting of 20 games total, in only 4 of those games has the losing team scored more than 20 points, and it hasn’t happened more than once in a week. I understand these coaches are tasked with finding the best possible way to win football games, it certainly hasn’t been great for the fans watching at home. The lack of quality matchups as well as the aforementioned quarterback woes are certainly factors, but the way teams have been bulking up and running the ball into the ground once they get a two-score lead is boring. There have barely been any lead changes, and the games are essentially over at halftime because no one has the firepower to play from behind. Is it too much to ask for a 42-35 game or even a 35-28 scoreline? These teams need to watch more Big 12 football.

 

 

Forget what you think you know: Week 3 Stock Report

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Purple Cow Magic: Not only did the Ephs knock off the perennial NESCAC champs, but they did so with two different QBs. Bobby Maimaron had a great game, throwing for two TDs and running for nearly 100, but got knocked out of the game for a play after taking a hit. In his brief absence, first year backup QB Jackson Bischoping casually threw a 49 yard TD pass to Frank Stola. So even if their start QB were to go down, they still might be the favorites at the 1/3 point to win the conference. Watch out, NESCAC, there’s a new squad on top.

Colby’s future: Okay, while a 31-14 loss seems pretty brutal, this game against Middlebury was much closer than the box score indicated. It was 10-7 in the fourth quarter against an inconsistent but undeniably talented Panther team (I mean they even have an offensive lineman, Colin Paskewitz, who can force a defensive fumble—check the box score if you don’t believe me). QB Matt Hersch had some ups and downs but threw to six different receivers, giving Coach Cosgrove some real weapons to work with this season.

Hamilton, for better or worse, looks like they’ll gut it out.

Hamilton’s Grit: Well, we have certainly bad mouthed the Continentals and QB Kenny Gray in recent weeks. After all, they didn’t show us a whole lot in the first two games of the season, but they shocked everybody by taking out the Wesleyan Cardinals, one of the frontrunners for NESCAC champs. Gray boasted a 1-4 TD-INT ratio going into week three, but threw for four scores and ran for 56 in their 33-29 upset. DB Christian Snell also made a huge impact by blocking a punt and recovering it for a TD, hustling his team into the win column. We talked about the veteran presence on this team, and it is now clear that despite some early duds, they do want it.

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Tufts D: While the Jumbos were able to pull out the victory against Bates, there was a time when they had their perfect record in question. They were down 14-10 at half and Bates looked like they were going to be able to keep up. Of course, Bates was not a match for the Jumbos, allowing a whopping 37 second half points, but a turnover free game doesn’t bode well for the Jumbo defense. They let a team who hasn’t been able to muster any offensive progress all year to score in the air and on the ground and against a stronger opponent, they may have been bested with such an effort. Tread carefully.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Bantams play on their heels, but at just 2-1, they have an uphill battle.

Connecticut muscle: Neither the Bantams nor the Cardinals could stave off their week three competition. Wesleyan allowed 357 yards of total offense compared to the 413 they racked up and still lost. A costly pick from Mark Piccirillo, and bad special teams play were the game changers for a team that looked as if they cold go undefeated entering week three. Losing to a bottom tier team is not only shocking to everybody else but devastating to their championship hopes. Punter Sam Han averaged just 27.1 yards per punt, not exactly flipping the field for his defense. The Bantams had similar issues, allowing a slew of rushing and passing yards to a body of different players. They couldn’t figure it out and neither could star transfer QB Jordan Vazzano who threw two picks. Even super human Max Chipouras couldn’t break off many big plays with his longest run of the day coming at just 18 yards, tallying an impressive 135 yards but averaging 3.6 yards per carry after a crazy workload of 38 carries. TJ Rothmann owned the Bantams, forcing a fumble and intercepting Vazzano, effectively ending the Bantams’ early 2018 dominant start.

It’s starting to get interesting; Week 2 stock report

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Bowdoin’s Ground Game: Despite their 0-2 record, things are looking up for the Polar Bears. After putting up a measly 6 points on 108 total yards of rushing against Williams week 1, the Bowdoin showed great improvement against Midd. They were able to put up 289 yards of rushing in week two, accounting for 2 of their 3 touchdowns. When I say they put up 289 yards I mean that Nate Richam put up 288 yards and the rest of their team averaged negative yardage. This feat earned Richam NESCAC Co-Offensive Player of the Week honors and may have begun to propel a formerly stagnant Polar Bear offense. After an absolute blowout week 1 Richam nearly single-handedly kept his team in the game week 2 and was nearly able to pull off the road upset against Midd. This kid is legit and I would not be surprised if he is able to help Bowdoin pull off an upset against one of the higher-tier teams later this season.

Ryan McDonald’s Patrick Mahomes interpretation: The Jumbos were easily able to keep Hamilton at bay last week, but QB Ryan McDonald seemed to be somewhat of a non-factor. Some may have been concerned coming into week 2 that he didn’t have what it takes to compete against a talented Wesleyan defense and that Tufts wouldn’t be able to figure out how to put points up on the board. All of those doubts were silenced Saturday night as McDonald was able to effectively spread the ball around to 7 different receivers, resulting in the 2 touchdowns that won the game for the Jumbos. Similarly to last years matchup, Tufts vs Wesleyan was a nail biter and McDonald proved that he has the guts to grind out a touch win against a tough NESCAC opponent.

The Jumbos are hot with McDonald under center right now.

Middlebury’s Linebackers: After allowing Wesleyan to move the ball up and down the field against them in week 1, Midd’s D showed up in week 2. Jonathan Hobart, Jourdon Delerme-Brown and Charles Roselle were all able to pick off Bowdoin’s former D1 quarterback Austin McCrum in week 2. These 3 turnovers proved to be crucial in Midd’s one-score victory over the Polar bears. While McCrum was able to throw for over 200 yards, it was due to volume passing as he recorded 39 attempts and was only able to connect on 20 of them, none for longer than 22 yards. This game should give the Panther defense lots of confidence when they come to Waterville to face a Colby team that has been struggling in the air to say the least. While their ground defense could certainly use some improvement, it looks as if Midd has the ability to compete against many of the elite quarterbacks in the CAC.

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Bates’ Defense: The Bobcats looked like a team that could sneak their way into the top half of the NESCAC after holding a solid Amherst team to only 19 points in week 1. Week 2 is a completely different story as they allowed Trinity to march up and down the field with no problem in their 59-16 loss. Bates’ pass defense looked formidable against Amherst, holding QB Ollie Eberth to only 112 passing yards and no touchdowns in the air. Trinity QB Jordan Vazzano on the other hand was able to pick apart the Bates defense with his eyes closed, passing for 353 yards and 5 touchdowns, a ridiculous stat line. If that wasn’t enough, running backs Sloane Lockwood and Max Chipouras combined with Vazzano for 217 more yards on the ground and 3 more touchdowns. Allowing nearly 60 points can be extremely disheartening for any defense and may well cause your defensive coordinator to retire at halftime. Bates will have to improve on almost every facet of their game in order to compete against Tufts next week, who have throw their hat into the running for NESCAC champion after downing a dangerous Wesleyan team in week 2.

Penney and the Cardinals need to step it up after an upset loss to the Jumbos.

Wesleyan’s Goal-line Back, Sean Penney: Penney was Wesleyan’s go-to guy inside the 10 yard line against Middlebury in week 1. He was able to convert 3 touchdowns in just 10 attempts, blowing through the Panther defense when he was called up. In week 2, Tuft’s defense seemed to have his number allowing him only 15 yards on 8 attempts, 0 of which reached the end zone. When the Cardinals needed it most week 2, Penney just wasn’t there to provide the momentum that he did in week one. It looks like it’s time to review the game tape and figure out what exactly he did in week 1 to make him so effective and why he wasn’t against Tufts. As for next week, Wesleyan faces an 0-1 Hamilton team, which may be a perfect opportunity for Penny to work on his craft in an almost surefire win for the Cardinals.

Hamilton QB Kenny Gray: Week 2 was a huge improvement for Hamilton’s Junior QB Kenny Gray. After Hamilton’s offense was unable to record a point against Tufts (their 2 points came on a safety), Gray was able to step it up week 2 and record 2 touchdowns, one in the air and one on the ground. One of Gray’s major issues week 1 was his accuracy. Tufts was able to pick him off 3 times and he was only able to convert of 18 of the 42 chances he took. Week 2 we saw a much improved Gray, completing 59.5% of his passes and limiting a talented Amherst defense to 1 interception. It already seems fairly clear that Hamilton doesn’t have too much of a chance to compete this year, but Gray is trending in the right direction. Perhaps if Gray continues to improve he will be able to lead the Continentals to a respectable record next year in his senior campaign.

Expectations vs. Reality; Week 1 Stock Report

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Wesleyan Secondary: Ben Thaw was the defensive star of the weekend, racking up two INTs, a TD, and 46 return yards, all but handing the Cardinals the victory. Alex Kirk added another pick and Mark Piccirillo could easily do the rest, tearing through the Panthers. They also limited the speedy Jimmy Martinez to just 17 yards, and prevented any receiver from tallying over 60 yards receiving which is just as impressive as their onslaught on Middlebury’s QB. They face another challenge this weekend against Tufts but should handle McDonald and the Jumbos just like they did in Week 1.

Ben Thaw locked up a NESCAC defensive player of the week award with his two INTs.

Bates Defense: Although the Bobcats lost in the first game of Malik Hall’s tenure as head coach, they kept the score much closer than I thought they would against Amherst. Amherst has a number of offensive weapons in QB Ollie Eberth, receivers Bo Berluti and James O’Reagan, and RB Jack Hickey, but only scored 19 points. Granted, this showed that the Bobcat ground defense is worse than their pass defense as all three TDs came on rushes. Eberth threw for just 112 yards though, and that is a small start in a new era of Bates football. They had six tackles for loss and one sack, however, they will need a better pass rush in the future.

Trinity’s Title Chances: Jordan Vazzano is the real deal and that means that the Bantams are back. Unlike McCrum at Bowdoin, Vazzano had an excellent debut and led his new Trinity team to a dominating 35-0 victory against Colby. Now, nobody thought that the Mules had a chance in this one, but he certainly took his first step in the right direction with 210 yards passing and two TDs. I took some heat after predicting the Bantams to be just 6-3, and although there is a lot of season left, I don’t like the chances for that one panning out.

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Jack Meservy needs to get it together before a week 4 matchup vs. Amherst.

Middlebury QB Empire: Following the graduation of past NESCAC legends, Donnie McKillop, McCallum Foote (possibly the best of the group), Matt Milano and Jared Lebowitz, who all called plays in Vermont, Jack Meservy had big shoes to fill. He performed well enough to retain the starting spot at the end of the 2017 season and the 2018 preseason, but bad decisions cost him in week one. He has been experiencing shoulder pain as well, and it’s unclear as to whether it effected him against Wesleyan, but his all star receivers didn’t get the balls they needed to make big plays happen. All three of the interceptions were costly, as one was a pick-6 and the two others left the dynamic Cardinal offense with a short field. Meservy has two weeks to figure it out against Bowdoin and Colby before taking on the mighty Amherst defense.

Hamilton’s Destiny Year: If there was ever a year for Hamilton to be good, this is it. They return heaps of players on both sides of the ball, but simply couldn’t get anything going against Tufts. In fact, their defense scored more than their offense with two points on a safety. They used three different QBs due to a tough three INT performance from Kenny Gray. Their offensive line allowed six sacks, making their QBs and run game without time to let plays develop. Will Budington was the lone bright spot with over 100 yards receiving, accounting for most of the Continental offense.

McCrum had a disappointing week one debut.

Excitement in Brunswick: After getting in transfer QB Austin McCrum from Lafayette, the Polar Bear fans should’ve had high hopes. After all, what else could take your team to the promised land than a fearless former D1 leader? Well, disappointment is here. A paltry opening week performance saw McCrum go just 10-25 with a pick before getting benched for Griff Stalcup, a promising sophomore who started most of their games a season ago. Stalcup did just fine, throwing a TD and no INTs, but he doesn’t quite match up against the signal callers of other quality teams.