Tag: Coach Strahorn

Not Just Happy to Be Here: Hoboken Regional Preview

#12 Colby (24-3, 8-2, at-large bid)

This was a bit of a different year for NESCAC Basketball with no one team looking dominant and the conference “only” getting three teams into the NCAA Tournament. Although they may not have won the NESCAC, it’s hard to argue that anyone else had a better season start to finish than the Mules. Colby raced off to an 18-0 start behind the excellent play of Sam Jefferson ’20 who looked like he might run away with the Player of the Year Award before he went down with an ankle injury in their game against Hamilton. This team only features one frontcourt player, so their strategy is basically to speed the game up to get out in transition and shoot a lot of three pointers. This has mostly worked for them, particularly since their lone big man Dean Weiner ’20 has really elevated his play recently, matching up against some of the conference’s elite bigs. Colby has never appeared in the NCAA Tournament, so we’re about to find out if they’re truly ready for the biggest spotlight.

How They Got Here

Sam Jefferson ’20 (Courtesy of Colby Athletics)

As I just mentioned, the Mules got off to a blazing hot start at 18-0 and climbing as high as 5th in the national rankings. Losses to Tufts and Amherst late in the year dropped them to 2nd in the NESCAC by the end of the regular season, earning them a home game against 7th-seeded Bates in the quarterfinals. This game became an instant classic as the Bobcats failed to seal the win late and big shots by Alex Dorion ’20, Will King ’23, and Matt Hanna ’21 allowed Colby to walk away victorious. They followed this up with yet another thrilling matchup with Amherst, coming from behind to eke out a 4-point win to advance to their first NESCAC Championship. Although they ended up on the wrong side of yet another ridiculously exciting, double overtime contest against Tufts, the committee awarded their efforts with an at-large bid and a trip to Hoboken for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

How They Lose

I feel like I’ve been saying it all year, but the recipe for a Colby defeat doesn’t seem that complicated. They only have one true big man and they rely heavily on the three-ball, so you’d think that a team with a bit of size who slows the game down would be able to put the Mules to rest. That said, this strategy hasn’t exactly worked for everyone who’s tried it. Amherst employed this very technique in the semifinals but Colby was able to grind out a low-scoring win in come-from-behind fashion. The Mules also use about 7-8 guys per game and Coach Strahorn really rides his starters, so I can envision fatigue catching up to them a bit, particularly for Dean Weiner ’20 since he’ll likely be asked to play more minutes than he’s used to in order to matchup with opposing big men. These all seem like very likely ways for Colby to lose, but it really hasn’t been that easy this year. Only two teams all season have been able to defeat the Mules, so I don’t anticipate them being an easy matchup for whoever they go up against. 

The Competition

Christopher Newport (21-6, 9-1, at-large bid)

(Courtesy of CNU Athletics)

The Captains earned at at-large bid out of the Capital Athletic Conference where they were pretty dominant all year. Their only conference losses were at the hands of York College, once in the regular season and once in the conference championship. York is also an excellent team that has a chance to make a run in the tournament, so these aren’t particularly bad losses. Their non-conference schedule was also pretty loaded, as all but one of their losses came to teams that are also in the NCAA Tournament. The scoring duties are led by junior Jason Aigner ’21 who’s averaging 13.9 points per game while shooting over 45% from beyond the arc. He’s aided by senior forward Dalon McHugh II ’20, who’s putting up 12.3 points and hauling in nearly 8 rebounds per game. CNU has some guys with size who could give Colby trouble, but they aren’t regular members of the rotation so it’ll be interesting to see if they stick with what they’ve been doing or if they decide to overpower the Mules with some size off the bench. Either way I think this will be a good matchup, but I don’t see Colby’s season ending tonight.

Writer’s Pick: Colby 86 – Christopher Newport 80

The Other Two

Stevens (23-4, 12-2, MAC Freedom Champions)

(Courtesy of Stevens Athletics)

Stevens is somewhat of an enigma given that they come from a relatively weak region, but there’s no doubt that this team can play. They blew threw the MAC Freedom Tournament, winning the title game in convincing fashion en route to becoming a host for the first two rounds of NCAAs. This team has some experience playing against the nation’s best, as they defeated #6 Johns Hopkins early in the year and battled to close defeats against #1 Swarthmore and #21 Middlebury as well. The Ducks are led by the trio of Spencer Cook ‘20, Alec DiPietrantonio ‘21, and Kevin Florio ‘20, each of whom average double digits in scoring. Cook shoots the three at a nearly 50% clip, so you can bet that teams will key in on him and make sure to always get a hand in his face. They’ve been tested before so you know they’ll be tough, but given that they haven’t played a particularly tough schedule since before the New Year, it’s hard to know exactly what we’ll see from them.

Nichols (20-8, 12-4, CCC Champions)

(Courtesy of Nichols Athletics)

The Bison are easily the weakest team in this region and I really don’t anticipate them getting past day one. They had a great run last season making it all the way to the Elite 8, but they lost quite a bit to graduation and really haven’t been the same team at all this year. They’ve got some experience with NESCAC teams as they took down Trinity and lost to both Tufts and Hamilton earlier this year, plus they earned a win early in the year over New England College who’s also an NCAA Tournament team. After finishing second in their conference during the regular season, Nichols defeated top-seeded Endicott in a thriller to earn the automatic bid into the tournament. DeAnte Bruton ’20 is as versatile a scorer as any, posting 22.3 points per game and big man Matt Morrow ’21 has been a beast this year, averaging a double double with 15.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. Jaekwon Spencer ’22 chips in 12.6 points per game of his own, but outside of these three guys there isn’t a ton of damage to be done. They have the pieces to make some games interesting, but this is a tough region and I don’t think Nichols has the fire power to consistently keep up with some of these other schools.

Disrespected No More: Medford Regional Preview

#20 Tufts (21-6, 9-2, NESCAC Champions)

Tufts secured their first NESCAC Championship in program history this past weeked, surviving a grueling double-overtime game against Colby in what will surely go down as an instant classic.  Despite leading by as many as seventeen points late in the first half, the Jumbos simply could not put away the feisty Mules; maintaining a nine-point advantage with just under eight minutes remaining in regulation, Tufts allowed the visitors to surge ahead on a 15-2 run, capped off by Sam Jefferson’s three-ball with 2:51 on the clock. With the Jumbos trailing by one with eleven ticks left, a missed layup by senior leader Eric Savage ‘20 seemed to signal a potential sour ending in the team’s journey to capture a NESCAC Championship on their own floor.  However, Savage was given an opportunity to redeem himself after Matt Hanna ‘21 calmly knocked down two free throws to stretch Colby’s advantage to three with six seconds remaining. The decision made by Coach Damien Strahorn to not foul was quite puzzling (although it is easier to say this behind a keyboard and not in the heat of the moment), but it nevertheless came back to bite the Mules as Savage drained a triple to send the game to overtime. The teams traded leads back-and-forth during the first few minutes, and Savage once again came up big with another three-ball to knot the game at 83 with 52 seconds left.  The Mules answered thanks to Will King’s layup, but it was the Jumbos who once again refused to quit; Savage’s missed jumper was followed up by Dylan Thoerner ‘23, who was fouled with virtually zeros on the game clock. In arguably the most intense atmosphere the rookie had experienced in his playing career to this date, Thoerner cooly sunk both free throws to force double overtime. In the final five minutes, big man Luke Rogers ‘21 gave the Jumbos the lead for good with a layup followed by a successful three-point play, and with a plethora of converted free throws down the stretch, the Tufts’ players, coaches and fans erupted with joy as the seconds ran down, knowing they had finally emerged victorious. 

How they Got Here

Luke Rogers ’21 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

All roads to success for the Jumbos lead through the duo of Savage and Rogers, who averaged a combined 32.7 ppg during the regular season.  The two compliment each other very well, as opposing teams are normally left with no choice but to provide help defense with whoever is guarding Rogers down low, allowing for extra driving lanes and an extended perimeter to shoot from for Savage and the rest of the Jumbos’ sharpshooters. The veteran leadership from Savage, the only senior on the Jumbos’ roster, is extremely impressive considering where the Jumbos are now compared to a season ago. Despite flashing glimpses of their potential such as their shocking upset against top-seeded Middlebury in the NESCAC Quarterfinals, the 2019 season saw Tufts finish just 12-14 with a 4-6 record in-conference. The maturation and focus that was required of this team in order to regularly compete at the highest level was met with open arms, and the reward is the team’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2016.

While the offense certainly had its moments, the defense was key concerning Tufts’ successful path to securing a regional host.  The Jumbos boast one of the stingiest defensive units in the conference, allowing opponents to shoot just 41% from the field. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (12.4 per game) but rather grind down opponents by keeping them outside the paint, leaving defenses frustrated after forcing contested shot after shot.  And despite the lack of turnovers as a whole, steals have not been a problem to come by; all the guards have very active hands, constantly pressuring the ball-handlers and making life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition.

How they Lose

The Jumbos certainly have flaws on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end, poor free-throw shooting has plagued this team all season long.  Quite frankly, it is a minor miracle they lost just six games while shooting 64% from the line as a team. Amongst the nine members of the team who average twelve minutes or more during a contest, only three of them (Brennan Morris ‘21 – 84.5%, Tyler Aronson ‘22 – 83.1%, and Thoerner – 78.3%) are reliable from the charity stripe. The other six? 56.3%. I have mentioned this in the past, but Rogers in particular can be exploited for his poor shooting efforts (79-171 from the free throw line this season, good for 46.2%) late in games as teams begin to foul intentionally. 

Another common factor that seems to reoccur when the Jumbos drop a contest is the number of fouls the team picks up. As good as the defensive unit is, Tufts leads the NESCAC in fouls committed by a considerable margin with nearly 21 fouls per game. This essentially means that not only will the respective opponent experience a bonus opportunity in each half of the contest, but (more than likely) they will eclipse ten fouls and get to the double bonus. As Tufts heads to the Big Dance, opposing teams with deeper rosters will look to use the Jumbos’ aggressiveness against them and draw contact in order to pile up both the fouls on Tufts and the free throw attempts. Being in a familiar environment, however, should be beneficial for the NESCAC Champions, who have lost just one game in front of their faithful supporters this calendar year.

**Speaking of faithful supporters, shame on Johns Hopkins for hosting a regional and barring fans from partaking in the event. At the very least, the University should have notified the NCAA about their stance regarding the coronavirus and public sporting events sooner, so that the next highest seed could host and this type of situation would not occur. Cowards, all of you. 

The Competition

Western Connecticut St. (20-7, 12-4, Little East Conference Champions)

(Courtesy of LEC Athletics)

The champs out of the Little East Conference started out slow, losing three out of four conference games in early January; however, they caught fire and closed out the season winning ten of eleven, including seven in a row.  While the offense is nothing out of this world, the Colonials boast an extremely deep roster – thirteen players average at least eight minutes a game. Three players average double figures, led by senior forward Fenton Bradley ‘20 (16.1 PPG, 6.3 REB/G). Ahmod Privott ‘22 (10.6 PPG), Jaheim Young ‘23 (10.3 PPG), and first-team all name selection Legend Johnson ‘21 (8.6 PPG) round out the top scoring threats for Western Connecticut St. In all honesty, the Jumbos should have no problem taking care of the Colonials: after all, Bradley is the team’s tallest player at 6’7’’, and even if he were to limit Rogers in some fashion, the Colonials’ supporting cast severely lacks the height and size to continuously bang down low.  I expect a bit of nerves from the Jumbos to begin, but by the second half, things should start flowing. Give me the Jumbos by 15+. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 78 – Western Connecticut 62

The Other Two: 

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (23-4, 17-1, at-large bid)

(Courtesy of RPI Athletics)

If Tufts advances to the round of 32, Rensselaer looks like the odds-on favorite to be their next opponent. Prior to falling to Ithaca College, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute was previously the 24th-ranked team in the nation. After an 0-2 start to the season, RPI thoroughly dominated their schedule and only dropped two contests the rest of the way (both to Ithaca College). The tone-setter for this squad is most certainly their defense, allowing a mere 60.6 PPG. Tufts will most certainly have their work cut out for them on the offensive end, as the Engineers force over 16 turnovers per game. Similarly to Western Connecticut St., the offensive unit will not strike a ton of fear into Tufts’ hearts, but they do possess a slew of players that can create their own shots. Patrick Mahoney ‘21 leads all scorers on the Engineers with 15.1 points per contest and chips in with 5.7 rebounds/game. Mason Memmelaar ‘22 (13.2 PPG, 5.5 REB/G) and Dom Black ‘22 (11.4 PPG, 6.2 REB/G) round out the other two reliable scorers, while Johnny Angbazo (43.5% from three) ‘23 and Will Rubin ‘23 (9.2 PPG, 39.1% from three) will absolutely knock down shots if not given the proper attention. 

New England College (21-6, 10-2, New England Collegiate Conference Champions)

(Courtesy of NECC Athletics)

The Pilgrims enter the NCAA Tournament in brilliant form, winners of ten straight (seven of those by double digits).  What’s more is that they already own a victory over the Jumbos, a 59-56 defensive battle that saw Tufts turn the ball over 23 times. The game was quite uncharacteristic for both teams involved, but was especially so for the Pilgrims, who average close to 90 points per game. New England College features five different players who average double figures, led by Izaiah Winston-Brooks ‘20 (18.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G) and Jamal Allen ‘22 (15.0 PPG).  They love to drive into the lane and get to the free throw line, averaging right around 16 attempts per game. The defense is below average, allowing over 80 points a game and struggles to rebound the ball. It really is quite puzzling that Tufts fell to a team with this poor of a defensive unit, but upon realizing this was a non-conference meeting during the normal conference slate, the sloppy play is not totally surprising. If they meet again, Tufts should be able to re-enforce their defensive superiority and limit the Pilgrims’ talented weapons, but this is certainly a team to keep an eye on as a potential sleeper in this regional. 

The Old and the New: Colby vs. Amherst Semifinal Preview

#2 Colby (23-2, 8-2) vs. #3 Amherst (18-7, 7-3), 7pm, Medford, MA

Overview

The Mammoths come into this game very hot, winning 7 of 8 games over the past month. Recently they have been led by emerging star Garrett Day ’21 who is averaging over 20 points per game during this stretch and has now found himself a spot in the starting lineup. Historically Amherst has made their living by playing fundamentally sound basketball, being careful with the ball and playing gritty, hard-nosed defense. Well, this year is no exception. Right now the Mammoths allow the fewest points of anyone in the league and they turn the ball over less than anyone besides Middlebury. In their first meeting Amherst held Colby – the league’s highest scoring team by a large margin – to just 69 points on 37.5% shooting, however they also turned the ball over 22 times. They also shot 58.9% from the floor in that game, which is their second highest single-game shooting percentage of the season. Last time around the Mammoths may have been able to shoot their way out of some carelessness with the ball, but I expect them to put extra emphasis on sticking to their game plan and not let the Mules speed the game up too much.

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Colby has struggled recently, but things definitely haven’t been all sunshine and rainbows over the past few weeks like they were at the start of the season. The Mules are still 5-2 over their last 7 games, but when you get off to an 18-0 start any loss makes it look like you’re slowing down. One of the biggest question marks in this game is the status of Sam Jefferson ’20, who went down with an ankle injury 3 weeks ago against Hamilton. Jefferson is one of the most efficient and talented players in the league and still has a realistic shot at winning NESCAC Player of the Year despite missing several games. He didn’t play at all over the 4 games after his injury, but last weekend Coach Strahorn tried sending him out there during the Mules’ triple overtime victory over Bates in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately Jefferson immediately had to go back to the bench because it essentially looked like he was playing on one leg. If Coach Strahorn thought that there was a chance Jefferson could play last week, perhaps an extra week of rest and healing is all it will take for him to at least be able to contribute a good chunk of minutes. Colby has an array of guards who can spread the floor and shoot the crap out of the ball, but Sam Jefferson ’20 is an important piece of the puzzle and they certainly haven’t been the same team without him.

Amherst X-Factor

F Eric Sellew ’20 (13.3 PPG, 6.9 REB/G, 3.4 AST/G, 53.6% FG, 23 MIN/G)

(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

There’s no doubt that Sellew is the X-Factor for the Mammoths in this one. Colby’s number one problem is that they lack size, so the fact that Sellew is 6’7” means that he should feast on the glass all night. He’s also a versatile scorer and his long wingspan makes him very difficult to guard around the basket. A shoulder injury in mid-January sidelined him for a few games, but it seems as though he’s back to full health. In their first meeting with the Mules Sellew struggled a bit, turning the ball over 7 times and only grabbing 4 rebounds (he did score 15 points). Amherst still won that game, but they can’t expect the same result if Sellew isn’t at his very best. With his injury in the rear-view mirror, he’s ready to lead the Mammoths to yet another deep postseason run.

Colby X-Factor

G Will King ’23 (9.7 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 5.8 AST/G, 50% FG)

(Courtesy of Colby Athletics)

King could not have picked a better time to have his best game of the season, netting 32 points, hauling in 11 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists in the Mules triple overtime victory over Bates in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. This guy has been one of the most impressive rookies in the league all season, but if he’s able to elevate his play even more in the postseason then Colby is primed for a deep playoff run. King is the NESCAC leader in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio, so we know he has great court vision and he’s careful with the ball. He’s also the tallest player in the starting lineup (albeit 6’5”), so he’ll need to continue hitting the boards to help with rebounding duties. His points per game average is a bit deceiving because he started the year off a bit slow scoring wise. Over the last 15 games he has reached double figures 10 times, most recently with his 32-point outburst last weekend. With everything else he does on the court, if King can increase his scoring totals then he’s going to really make an impact down the stretch.

Final Thoughts

Obviously the health of Sam Jefferson ’20 is a huge factor in this one, but I expect it to be a battle either way. NESCAC Tournament games have a flare for the dramatic and no one knows that better than these two teams who are both coming off overtime quarterfinal matchups. Garrett Day ’21 has emerged as the star over the second half of the season for Amherst and he’s been very hot as of late, but they’ll need guys like Fru Che ’21 and Josh Chery ’20 to step up as well if they want to keep up with Colby’s high octane offense. The Mules’ five-man backcourt of Jefferson, Noah Tyson ’22, Matt Hanna ’21, Alex Dorion ’20, and Will King ’23 can score on you in a hurry, but they had a season-low shooting percentage in their first go around against the Mammoths. Conversely, Amherst had their second highest field goal percentage of the season last time against the Mules. I wouldn’t bet on either of those happening again, particularly since they’ve each seen each other once and have made some adjustments heading into this meeting. Colby’s reliance on the 3-ball makes them really hard to trust in the postseason, even with a 23-2 record over the course of the season. Combine that with Jefferson’s status being up in the air, I think the third-seeded Mammoths are the favorites in this one.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83 – Colby 78

NESCAC Friday Tipoff: 1/10 Weekend Preview

NESCAC Basketball Weekend Preview

Trinity (9-4) @ Bowdoin (4-6), 7pm, Brunswick, ME

The Bantams, who are playing great basketball right now after a rocky start, get the pleasure this Friday of visiting a Bowdoin team that is clearly still feeling the graduation of stud Jack Simonds. The Polar Bears had more than a few stumbles in their non-conference games, with some brutal losses (Southern Maine, Colby by 46) along with some wins that were too close for comfort (ME-Farmington by 4, Framingham State by 9). With the conference slate being clean for everyone, though, Bowdoin still has a chance to turn it around. They will need guys not named David Reynolds (21 PPG in his last two games) and Sam Grad ’21 to step up if they want to make any splash in the conference this year, or it’s going to be a long season in Brunswick. Trinity, a team for whom offense has been a question mark in the past, has been scoring the ball at a rate we have not seen out of them in some time – albeit against some weaker teams. If you’re Coach Cosgrove, you have to be ecstatic about a starting lineup in which all five guys are currently averaging double figures. The Bantams have averaged 90 points per game over their last five games, all wins. Kyle Padmore ‘20, recently named NESCAC POTW, has looked like an all-conference player on both ends. As we all know, however, this conference is a different animal in the world of D3 basketball. Even Bowdoin will likely be a step up from some of the teams the Bantams have been blowing out lately. If Trinity can keep up the hot shooting while playing Coach Cosgrove’s tough brand of defense, they’re going to be a force in conference play. This team is on too much of a roll for a hiccup against the reeling Polar Bears.

Writer’s Pick: Trinity 83 – Bowdoin 65 

Williams (6-5) @ Hamilton (10-2), 7pm, Clinton, NY

Last year this game would have been a lock for game of the week and maybe even game of the year, but this year it pins two teams struggling to figure out their identities against each other. Williams has not scored at anywhere near the rate they were last season and they also find themselves with the second fewest assists per game in the NESCAC. Guys like Cole Prowitt-Smith ’23, Alex Stoddard ’23, and Spencer Spivy ’22 have shown that they’re capable of having big games, but none of them have displayed any level of consistency whatsoever. Big man Matt Karpowicz ’20 is the only guy on this team who has played significant time over the past few years and he’s sure to have a big game, but he’s going to need some help. The good news for Eph fans is that Hamilton is having a similar problem. Kena Gilmour ’20 is a stud, but it’s unclear who else is going to step up to fill the void left by all the players they graduated from last year. That said, the Continentals still average the second most points per game in the league (90.3) so it’s not all bad. This has the potential to be a pretty sloppy game given that these two teams are among the top 3 in turnovers and each of them have a slew of players that haven’t quite proven themselves yet. I expect this to be pretty evenly matched most of the way, but I don’t see the Continentals losing at home to an Eph squad that has been struggling as of late.

Writer’s Pick: Hamilton 77 – Williams 69

Connecticut College (3-8) @ #12 Colby (11-0), 7pm, Waterville, ME

If you’re the Conn College Camels, this is a very exciting point in the season. Everyone in the NESCAC is even in conference play, and you have an opportunity in front of you to put your past struggles behind and turn things around. The bad news for Conn is that they are starting off their conference slate with a Colby Mules team that is gaining attention nationwide for their offensive firepower, currently earning them the #12 spot in the country (only Middlebury is ranked higher among NESCAC teams). Not only is Colby 11-0, but they have also hit triple digits in six of those games. Sam Jefferson ’20 stands out right away with his absurd numbers – 24.5 PPG, 63% shooting from the field, and an unconscious 53% from deep. After Jefferson, guys like Matt Hanna ’21, Noah Tyson ’22, and Wallace Tucker ’21 have been scoring the ball at a high clip as well. The Mules will need to continue to take open threes and hit them in NESCAC play given that they have almost no size. Coach Strahorn has been running with a lineup of 7-8 guys, none of whom are over 6’4. This might work against some of the lowly Maine schools they have been playing, but it’s going to be a much bigger issue come NESCAC play. The one caveat to Colby’s success so far is their weak non-conference schedule. Conn, yes Conn, may very well be the best team they have faced so far. Conn should look to get 6’7 Dan Draffan and 7-footer Ryan Omslaer ’22 as many touches as possible to expose Colby’s lack of height. Defensively, the obvious emphasis needs to be on closing out perimeter shooters because Colby has plenty of them. I want to believe that Conn will make more of an impact in the NESCAC this year, but they just have not shown enough promise so far in their 3-8 season for me to feel good about their chances this weekend. The Mules have enough offense to roll at home.

Writer’s Pick: Colby 89 – Conn 68 

Tufts (10-2) @ Wesleyan (9-2), 7pm, Middletown, CT

This is a very important matchup for both of these teams. The Jumbos have started off the year very strong and Wesleyan is coming off of a statement win at home against Amherst. This Cardinal defense has looked outstanding, allowing the second fewest points per game of anyone while forcing a league-leading 9 steals per game. Jordan James ’21 is putting together another fantastic year so far, but he’ll go up against Luke Rogers ’21 who will certainly be the most talented big man he’s faced this season. That matchup will definitely be one to focus on. An interesting difference between these two teams is that Tufts has shot the ball very well so far as a whole, while Wesleyan is actually shooting a very low percentage, particularly from behind the 3-point line. This has worked so far for the Cardinals given that they play such good defense, but if the shots are falling for the Jumbos it’s tough to know who will respond for Wesleyan. Tufts has some very talented, athletic guards and we still haven’t really gotten a good read on the Cardinals’ young backcourt so it’ll be intriguing to see how they fare against one another. Tufts won this meeting last year in Medford behind a strong defensive effort and a hot shooting performance and at this point it’s hard to envision a different result this year.

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 78 – Wesleyan 74

Game of the Day

#3 Middlebury (13-0) @ #15 Amherst (9-3), 7pm, Amherst, MA

The surefire game of the week this week is taking place in western Mass tonight. These two perennial powers have played tough schedules so far and have looked very strong throughout. The Panthers’ combination of Jack Farrell ’21, Max Bosco ’21, and Matt Folger ’20 is one of the best scoring trios in the nation and they have showed no signs of slowing down. They have also benefitted greatly from the strong play of second-year center Alex Sobel ’22 who has stepped in to replace Eric McCord. He’ll have his work cut out for him when he goes up against this Mammoth team that is loaded with size. Middlebury’s offense looks incredibly hard to stop, but if anyone is going to do it then it’ll be the team with the league’s best defense. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of Amherst because most of their starters have played limited minutes so far. We know that Eric Sellew ’20, Fru Che ’21, and Grant Robinson ’21 are three of the best players in the conference, but first year Head Coach Aaron Toomey is still trying to figure out what is going to work to get these guys all involved. Robinson in particular hasn’t exactly looked like the same player from last season and there is speculation that he has been dealing with minor injuries in the early part of this season. Again, this is speculation, but something isn’t the same so far for the Mammoths. They’re also coming off a tough loss against Little Three rival Wesleyan, so it’ll be interesting to see which direction they go in their very difficult games this weekend. It’s difficult to open conference play with the best team in the league and I think that’s going to be quite a challenge for Amherst. This also may not be the last time these two teams square off this year…

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 81 – Amherst 72

Shooters Shoot: Colby Men’s Basketball Preview 2019-2020

Colby College Mules

2018-2019 Record: 17-8 (5-5 NESCAC), lost in quarterfinals of NESCAC Tournament

2019-2020 Projected Record: 20-4 (6-4 NESCAC)

Key Losses: G Ronan Schwarz

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Wallace Tucker ’21 (11.3 PPG, 3.2 REB/G, 2.5 AST/G, 40.3% 3PT)

Tucker isn’t a big guy, but his presence on the court is certainly felt. His impressive ball-handling ability and shooting efficiency make him a perfect member of this Colby backcourt. He also rebounds surprisingly well given his size, but with the Mules’ lack of big guys and his impressive athleticism it actually does make sense. With all of the scoring options that Colby has it would be nice to see an increase in Tucker’s assist numbers, but there isn’t much else to ask from him because he is definitely a role player on this team. If he continues to take high percentage shots, minimize turnovers, and play solid defense then that’s just about all Coach Strahorn will need him to do.

G: Matt Hanna ’21 (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB/G, 2.6 AST/G, 40.8% 3PT)

Matt Hanna is one of the most entertaining players to watch in the NESCAC. This guy plays with his heart on his sleeve and leaves everything out on the court. It’s also clear that he thinks very highly of himself, as evidenced by his transfer to Louisville in 2018 where he planned to walk on for his sophomore season. Fortunately for the Mules he decided to transfer back to Colby after a short week in Kentucky to continue his run in the NESCAC. Hanna is an exceptional shooter and pure scorer and he’ll look to continue his upward trend for the third straight year. Like Wallace Tucker, Hanna is not even 6 feet tall, so he’ll have to rely on his larger frame to successfully defend the bigger guys that he goes up against. This guy is a true leader for the Mules and opposing teams should be on notice all year long.

G: Noah Tyson ’22 (10.9 PPG, 8.2 REB/G, 2.6 AST/G, 37.1% 3PT)

Last year’s NESCAC Rookie of the Year has picked up right where he left off at the conclusion of the 2018-2019 season. Tyson isn’t a huge guard, but he’s a monster on the boards and actually finished top-10 in the league in rebounding last year. This is crucial for the Mules because they don’t start a single player over 6’5” and only have one on their roster. Tyson has excellent court vision and shoots the ball well – to be honest it’s hard to know where he can improve aside from his scoring totals, which are already pretty good. The bar is high for the former Vermont Mr. Basketball, so we’ll have to wait to find out how much better this guy can get. 

G: Will King ’23 (DNP)

It’s never easy to know what to say about a freshman, but King is off to a tremendous start to his rookie campaign in Waterville. He brings a bit more size to the starting lineup and is already averaging 6 (!) assists per game through 11 contests. It’s essential to know your role as a freshman and it seems as though King is doing exactly that. He is shooting a high percentage, but only shoots when he knows it’s right. He has identified that this team is loaded with scorers and he clearly has a knack for finding the open guy. King is also a crafty finisher and can spread the floor, so he will be very dangerous once he starts to find his rhythm offensively. It’s still early, but this guy looks to be quite a find for Coach Strahorn.

G: Sam Jefferson ’20 (18.2 PPG, 4.1 REB/G, 1.8 AST/G, 42.5% 3PT)

Jefferson has been the best player on this team for a few years now, but he’s off to one of the hottest starts in recent NESCAC history. 11 games into the season Jefferson is averaging 24.7 points per game, while shooting a jaw dropping 63.3% from the floor and 52.9% from 3-point land. Might as well throw in the fact that he’s also shooting 90% from the charity stripe. This is absolutely ridiculous efficiency. It’ll be hard (impossible?) to sustain these numbers, but it’s clear that Jefferson is one of the best scorers in the league and should be taken very seriously. He’s the biggest player in this starting lineup and will need to provide more than the 3 rebounds per game that he’s currently chipping in once NESCAC play starts, but realistically he’s on track to secure another spot on the all-NESCAC team and possibly even an all-American team if the Mules stay hot.

Everything Else:

To be honest if I had written this preview at the very beginning of the season I absolutely would not have envisioned the Mules getting off to the start that they have. They had a successful year last year but this is not what anyone could have expected. At #12 in the country, Colby has already reached the highest national ranking in program history and they don’t seem to be slowing down. This team led the league in 3-point percentage and assists last year (and so far this year) and they score A LOT. This team employs 4/5 guards on the court at a time and their game plan is to run the floor and shoot you out of the gym. The fact that they don’t really have any big men means that this is essentially the only style that they can play, but they’re executing it to a T.

Perhaps one of the biggest reasons for the drastic improvement by the Mules is the fact that they have so much experience in their lineup. They only start one senior, but 7 of the 8 guys that they play in their regular rotation have played countless minutes and have spent years developing relationships with each other. Senior guards Alex Dorion ’20 and Ty Williams ’20 are two important pieces of the puzzle, as they know the system that Coach Strahorn has in place and they can be subbed in and out for the starters without the team skipping a beat. One of the most important players on the team is 5th year senior Dean Weiner ’20 who – aside from having a name straight out of a school-themed adult film – is the only big man on the roster and has a wealth of experience playing in the NESCAC. The Mules love to run up and down the court, but they’ll need an experienced big man to matchup with some of the best centers in the league such as Matt Karpowicz and Luke Rogers. That seems to be an area where Colby is most likely to get hurt, so Weiner will certainly have his work cut out for him.

There’s no question that this run-and-gun style offense is incredibly fun to watch, but it seems like the Mules’ lack of size could potentially hurt them once they start playing tougher, bigger teams. It also feels like there will come a game when the shots just aren’t falling and it’s hard to know what the recipe is in that instance, but right now we’re still just waiting for that to happen. Colby was a streaky team last year so the challenge this season is finding a bit more consistency. An 11-0 start looks great, but they have played an exceptionally easy schedule so far so it’s tough to know exactly where they stand. They have a stretch at the end of January and into February where they have 6 consecutive road games, 5 of which are NESCAC affairs. If they can get through that part of the season without more than a loss or two, this could be the year for the Colby Mules. 

Even the Mighty Fall: Stock Report 1/23

Stock Report 1/23

Stock up

Potential end-of-season drama

Right when it was starting to look like no one would beat Williams, they lost. Then, they lost again. Now the best record in the NESCAC belongs to none other than the Hamilton Continentals, while Wesleyan shares the top spot in the conference standings with the Ephs (although Williams does hold the head-to-head tiebreaker). Additionally, the Amherst vs. Hamilton game that was supposed to happen this past weekend was postponed due to the snowstorm. That game will surely have playoff seeding implications given that these two teams are at the top of the conference, and the fact that it’s being rescheduled later in the season will add even more excitement to what was already going be a very exciting finish to the year. Everyone in the league except for Conn has picked up a conference win, and everyone except for Colby and Conn have two, so it’s exciting to see a little bit of parity between the teams (especially coming on the heels of football season). We’re looking at yet another terrific year for NESCAC basketball.

Bates’ playoff chances

It’s no secret that non-conference play was a disaster for the Bobcats, but they’ve looked like a completely different team in the New Year. The win at Colby was a promising way to start, and then Bates put up two valiant efforts against some of the league’s best teams in Williams and Middlebury but came away empty-handed. Beating Tufts for the 3rd straight year (and 4th time in 5 years) was nothing short of a statement win. The Jumbos haven’t had the best season ever, but they’ve already recorded wins over Middlebury and Bowdoin – two of the teams that defeated Bates. Tom Coyne ’20 has been a huge part of the turn around as he returned from a shoulder injury with a very hot hand. The junior put up 18 points off the bench on 6-12 shooting including 3-7 from downtown against the Jumbos, his third consecutive 17+ point game. The first half on Saturday was all about Nick Lynch ’19 as he scored 20 of his game-high 22 points thanks to a barrage of midrange jump shots. Kody Greenhalgh ’20 also turned in a very fine effort, posting 14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. The Bobcats may have started the season on a sour note, but they’re playing well when it counts so don’t count them out of the postseason just yet.

Middlebury as a title contender

Max Bosco is playing his way out of contention for our 6th Man of the Year award

Definitely the best way to secure a spot in the “stock up” column is to take down the top team in the league, and the Panthers did just that on Saturday with a convincing 80-66 win over Williams. Jack Farrell ’21 led the way with 24 points on a very efficient 9-14 from the field, and he also dished out 5 assists. An important thing to note for Middlebury is that Coach Brown recently decided to insert Max Bosco ’21 into the starting lineup in place of Griffin Kornaker ’21, and it has paid dividends. Bosco put up 21 points in his first game as a starter, and then put forth an 18-point, 6-rebound effort in the win against Williams. This is the type of spark the Panthers were looking for as they’re now looking like one of the scarier teams in the conference. The loss to Tufts hurts but other than that Middlebury has a nice looking resume and adding a win over Williams certainly doesn’t look too shabby either. They’ve got Trinity, Bowdoin, and Colby in the near future, so it’s a good time for the Panthers to snag a few more wins before they have to finish the year with two of the very best – Hamilton and Amherst.

Stock down

Colby in close games

The Mules have been off to a great start, but something that stands out as a real area where they have struggled is playing close games. Colby has shown an inability to win close games, especially when it counts. They’re 3-5 this year in games decided by 10 points or less and 1-3 in one possession games. These aren’t great numbers from a team who wants to be making an impression on the rest of the league. It’s especially frustrating when two of those close losses came to Bates and Bowdoin in conference play, both teams that the Mules defeated in their non-conference matchups. Winning close games more often than not comes from a combination of coaching and player maturity. Coach Strahorn is doing an excellent job so we know that isn’t the issue; the reason they have struggled so much down the stretch is that Colby only has one senior on their roster and he isn’t one of the guys who would be handling the ball at the end of a close game. They’ve got talent on their team, but the guys are young – they need these experiences in tight matchups to continue learning for the future. This will serve them very well in one, two, three years from now when they’ve got a team full of players who have been there time and time again. For now they’ll have to try and claw (hoof?) their way in it with what they’ve got.

Note: I wrote this before Colby’s 101-98 victory over Husson on Tuesday, so it looks like they’re already starting to turn things around.

Williams’ depth

Mickey Babek will have to step up if Williams is going to make a run

There’s no way the Ephs weren’t falling in the “stock down” column after suffering their first two losses of their year to Amherst and Middlebury, respectively. They’re fortunate that the Amherst game was technically a non-conference affair and that they get another crack at the Mammoths at the end of the year. Either way, Williams isn’t all high and mighty like they were before. In the loss to Amherst they had 16 points off the bench and against Middlebury it was a mere 3. Literally only 3 points. This is not characteristic of a team that wants to compete in the NESCAC even, let alone on a national scale. They need more production from guys off the bench like Mickey Babek ’20, Marcus Soto ’19, and Marc Taylor ’21, each of whom have the capability of hitting shots and playing a bigger role. As I like to say, no reason to panic for the Ephs. They’re still very much in the driver’s seat and with Trinity, Colby, and Bowdoin on the horizon they’ve got a very nice chance to stay on top.

5 Bold Predictions for the Rest of the Season

1. Williams wins the national championship

Matt Karpowicz ’20 is one of the many Ephs who will help pave the way for a deep tournament run

To be honest, this isn’t a particularly bold prediction. The Ephs are #2 in the nation and they have looked nearly unstoppable to this point in the season. Their average margin of victory is 26 and only 2 of their games have been decided by less than 10 points. What makes them so tough to stop is the fact that they have so many different guys that can beat you on a given night. If you try to play a zone then Bobby Casey ’19 and James Heskett ’19 will light you up from beyond the arc. If you don’t have a true big man then Matt Karpowicz ’20 and Michael Kempton ’20 will wreck you in the paint. If you don’t have at least one standout wing capable of playing defense at a high level then Kyle Scadlock ’19 is going score at will. These guys are as good as it gets at the D3 level and you can see it as soon as they step on the court – the average height of their starting lineup is 6’6” and not one of them is below 6’3”. Williams has made runs deep into the tournament in recent years, but this time they’ll come back with some hardware. Barring injury, the Williams College Ephs will be your 2019 NCAA Division III Basketball National Champions.

2. Hamilton wins the NESCAC championship

Kena Gilmour ’20 is one of the biggest stars that the NESCAC has to offer

Well, if anyone is going to take down the Ephs (at least before the NCAA Tournament) then there’s no doubt that the #5 team in the country has the best chance. The average height of their starters is 6’5”, so they’re really the only team that has the size to reasonably matchup with Williams. They’ve got a bona fide star in Kena Gilmour ’20, an array of athletic wings who can shoot the ball and have the athleticism to defend multiple positions, and a big man in Andrew Groll ’19 who anchors the team down low. They, too, have blown teams out of the water, with only 2 games within 10 points and an average margin of victory of 21. They shoot the ball at an astonishingly high rate (51.3% FG) and turn the ball over less than almost anyone. Essentially the only question that I have about them is whether or not their defense will be able to compete in a game when the shots simply aren’t falling. Like most NESCAC teams they haven’t played a very tough schedule so they’ve had their way with opposing defenses, but there will come a game when they just aren’t getting the bounces. I’m not sure that their defense is good enough to win a grind-it-out type game like this, which is also why I don’t see them being able to make a run in the NCAAs. What we do know is that their offense is as good as anyone in the nation, so I think they will get hot enough in a three game stretch to win the NESCAC title.

3. Bowdoin finishes third in the NESCAC

David Reynolds ’20 will have to keep producing at the same rate for Bowdoin to stay in contention

There’s no doubt that Williams and Hamilton are the top 2 teams in the conference, so the question seems to be who will finish 3rd. Things are much murkier in the middle, but I like what’s been going on in Brunswick so far this season. After a slow 2-3 start the Polar Bears have really found their identity, winners of their last 6 contests. The duo of Jack Simonds ’19 and David Reynolds ’20 is one of the most lethal scoring combinations in the league, with each of them averaging over 17 points per game. Zavier Rucker ’21 is one of the steadiest point guards out there, and he also adds a very viable third scoring option. His range certainly raises some questions as he’s only shooting 27.3% from 3-point land. Teams will definitely start to play off him a bit and respect his quickness, forcing him to shoot from farther out. He’ll have to get better from the outside to draw some of the attention away from Reynolds and Simonds. Hugh O’Neil ’19 is another elite big man who currently leads the league in field goal percentage (67.2%) while also coming in at 2ndin the league in rebounding (10.6 per game). This type of efficiency is exactly what Bowdoin is looking for out of their senior captain. What especially stands out about the Polar Bears is their strong upperclassman leadership. Aside from Rucker their main rotation of guys consists only of juniors and seniors, and this will go a very long way in a conference that is seeing a lot more asked of some of the younger players. Bowdoin has an excellent opportunity to make a leap into the top half of the NESCAC this season, and it all starts with the guys who have been there time and time again.

4. Colby leads NESCAC in scoring

Noah Tyson ’22 is potentially the most talented player on the Colby roster, and he’s only a freshman

This is another prediction that doesn’t appear to be very unreasonable given what we’ve seen so far – the Mules are 2nd to only Hamilton in points per game – but Colby has struggled mightily in recent years, including last year’s 10th place finish. What they have going for them this year is a very balanced scoring attack where all 5 starters average double figures in scoring. They attempt an incredible amount of 3-point shots, but this fast paced style is the way that they need to play since they lack a true big man and have a height disadvantage at almost every position on the court. When the game is moving at this type of pace it also means that they’ll be allowing a lot of points, so even if they do lead the league in scoring they very well could finish in the bottom of the standings again. For the fans, however, this makes almost every Colby game must-watch basketball. We’re likely to see lots of scores in the 80s and 90s, so it’s almost always going to be worth tuning in to the action in Waterville. Win or lose, it’s shaping up to be a very exciting season for Coach Strahorn and his squad.

5. Bobby Casey wins POY

Bobby Casey ’19 has a chance to be the second consecutive Eph to bring home the POY trophy

Although I wrote that Kena Gilmour was our prediction for Player of the Year in our awards preview a few weeks ago, it could be another southpaw that takes home the trophy at the season’s end. Teammate James Heskett ’19 earned POY honors last season, but this year it’s been Bobby Casey’s turn. The senior has been a lights out scorer this year, coming in at 5th in the league with 18.1 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field including over 45% from deep. He’s also grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game and dishing out a league-leading 4.5 assists per game. There’s no question that he benefits heavily from the fact that he’s the team’s primary ball handler and the talent that exists around him in Williams’ lineup is unparalleled. Not a lot of guys would be able to share the ball as much as he does while still getting a fair share of shots for himself. Either way, the Ephs are loaded and Casey is a star so he’ll be an interesting guy to keep an eye on as the season progresses. If they’re able to maintain the blistering start that they’re off to, you can bet that Casey will be leading the way.

Slightly Too Early End of Season Award Candidates

At this point in the season every team has played between 8 and 10 games, which isn’t a particularly large sample size. Well, we decided that the p-value is low enough for us to be able to hand out some awards for what we’ve seen thus far. At the end of the season the NESCAC hands out awards for Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year. We felt that this simply isn’t enough to recognize all of the talent that is present in NESCAC basketball, so we added 6th Man of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year. We plan on putting out an updated list midway through the season and, of course, at the end of the season as well so stay tuned because we’re in for an action packed season.

Player of the Year

Kena Gilmour ’20 (Hamilton)

19.7PPG, 6.6REB/G, 2.7AST/G, 52.6% FG

Gilmour has been off to an incredibly hot start in his junior campaign after earning Rookie of the Year honors two seasons ago and finding a spot on the all-NESCAC first team last year. He is a true do-it-all player who scores, shares the ball, rebounds, and defends well. Averaging 19.7 points per game is already impressive as it is, but he hasn’t even played full minutes in a number of their matchups given that they’ve been blowing teams out. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see his scoring numbers actually increase come conference play. What really stands out is that he’s shooting over 50% from the field, proving that he’s an efficient scorer who has the awareness to take good shots and not force anything despite being the team’s best player. He’s certainly aided by the fact that the Continentals have so many other threats, but the 6’4” guard is already looking like a very strong candidate for POY honors.

Defensive Player of the Year

Matt Folger ’20 (Middlebury)

9.9REB/G, 2.1BLK/G, 0.9STL/G

He’s no slouch on the offensive end either, but Folger has really been making a name for himself on the other end of the court. In the NESCAC, guys who are 6’8” and 210 pounds are almost always going to be big men so Folger has a huge advantage given that he plays as a wing. He possesses the size to defend NESCAC bigs but he has the quickness and athleticism to defend guards as well. It also doesn’t hurt that the Panthers have an outstanding true big man in Eric McCord, so Folger has been able to play mostly around the perimeter. This is a huge reason for why he is tied for the league lead in blocks per game – he’s almost always defending someone 2 to 5 inches shorter than him. This allows him to often get a hand on jump shots when he’s closing out on a shooter. Folger consistently causes problems for whomever he is defending, so opponents beware and try not to get distracted by that outrageous moustache.

Rookie of the Year

Noah Tyson ’22 (Colby)

11.8PPG, 8.6REB/G, 2.6AST/G, 0.5TO/G

At this point in the season, this was the easiest award to pick. The former Mr. Basketball in Vermont has really been making a name for himself during his first season in Waterville. His scoring numbers have been good, but the 6’2” guard has been hauling in rebounds like it’s his job. His 8.6 rebounds per game is good for 8thin the NESCAC, but each of the 7 guys ahead of him on the leaderboard are over 6’4” so you can see that Tyson is a next level athlete. Perhaps the most promising feature of Tyson’s game is that he’s very sure-handed with the ball. The freshman is averaging a miniscule 0.5 turnovers per game, giving him the 3rdhighest assist-to-turnover ratio (5.2) in the league. He has all the tools to become a star, so keep an eye on the standout youngster to see if he can continue this blistering pace as we start to move into conference play.

Side note: Apologies for using this photo of Tyson from last year, but Colby hasn’t uploaded their headshots for basketball season yet so it’s the best we could do.

6th Man of the Year

Max Bosco ’21 (Middlebury)

15.3PPG, 2.9AST/G, 48.2% FG

Here’s another early award that was frankly a no-brainer. Bosco has been easily the most effective 6thman in the league, putting up an impressive 15.3 points while playing just 21.6 minutes per game. He is the perfect complement to Middlebury’s top offensive threats – Matt Folger and Jack Farrell – because it allows the Panthers to take one of those two off the court and without sacrificing any offensive production. Bosco is a guy that is easy to lose track of, but if you do then he’ll make you pay. He’s capable of knocking down threes with his quick release, but he can also put the ball on the floor and get to the rim if you close out too hard. This guy is exactly what the Panthers could ask for in a 6thman and the rest of the league should be on notice – don’t forget about Max Bosco.

Comeback Player of the Year

Kyle Scadlock ’19 (Williams)

14.4PPG, 9.2REB/G, 2.3AST/G, 63.2% FG

Not only is Scadlock a lock to win comeback player of the year, but he’s also a very serious contender for player of the year. The senior currently falls at 16thin the NESCAC in points per game, however he’s doing that while taking nearly half as many shots per game as the first 15 guys on the list. Shooting 60% over the course of an entire season seems impossible, but Scadlock has been getting great looks because of how many other weapons are in this Eph lineup. Scadlock has also been a rebounding machine thus far, but this also isn’t too much of a surprise given that he’s 6’7” and is almost always the most athletic guy on the court. Williams has also played a relatively easy schedule to this point so they haven’t needed any serious late-game leadership that a guy like Scadlock can bring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his scoring totals actually start to increase once they start facing more talented teams.

Coach of the Year

Damien Strahorn (Colby)

This is probably the toughest award to give out this early in the season since each team has played a vastly different schedule to date. That said, Strahorn is doing an excellent job with the guys he has to come up with a winning formula. He has the Mules off to an 8-2 start while scoring the 3rdmost points per game in the conference, behind only Williams and Hamilton who currently sit at #2 and #4 in the national rankings. They also lead the league in assists per game and are doing a very respectable job rebounding given their lack of a true big man. On the other end Colby forces a ton of turnovers and are very pesky defensively, which is exactly how they need to play with their size disparity. If he can keep the Mules as hot as they have been to flip the script from last season’s 10thplace finish, Strahorn will be on his way to earning coach of the year honors.