Month: January 2019

Basketball Friday Preview: Give me an upset please

Friday Night Preview – NESCAC Men’s Basketball

#24 Amherst (11-1, 1-0) @ Connecticut College (5-8, 0-2)

Amherst rolls into this game with a shiny new top-25 ranking next to their name. Conn on the other hand, has been struggling as of late. This game seems as if it should be fairly predictable, with not much of a chance for success for Conn. While the Mammoths have no trouble scoring, averaging just over 86 PPG, it is really their defense that sets them apart. They have not allowed an opponent to score more than 71 points against them in any one game. For Amherst defense really has been their best offense. Conn enters this weekend having lost 3 of their last 4 games. In their defense, they were up against #3 Williams and formerly ranked Midd, making it a tough overall weekend for the Camels. This weekend may look to be one in the same as they are faced with yet another top 25 opponent. If there’s one thing that Conn has going for them right now, it is strength of schedule.

For the Camels to have a shot, David Labossiere will need to take this game over.

Score Prediction: #24 Amherst 88 – Conn 67

#3 Williams (13-0, 2-0) @ Tufts (7-8, 1-1)

The Ephs have continued to absolutely steamroll everyone that stands between them and perfection. They easily took down Conn and Wesleyan last weekend and I doubt a trip to Medford brings any anxiety to these guys. 4 out of their 5 starters are averaging over 10 PPG and they are holding their opponents to less than 60 PPG. There has been no evidence to convince me that any NESCAC team can take down Williams let alone Tufts. Last weekend the Jumbos went up to Maine and split games against Colby and Bowdoin. While the Jumbos feature 5 players on their roster who are averaging double digits every game, it seems to be their defense that consistently is inconsistent. Tufts can try their hardest to defend home court but in all reality they have next to no chance of taking down Williams.

Score Prediction: #3 Williams 92 – Tufts 78

Middlebury (11-4, 1-1) @ Bates (4-10, 1-1)

While this contest features two teams that are .500 in-conference, not all .500 teams are created equal. Middlebury’s recent loss to Wesleyan was just enough to kick them out of the top 25 while Bates stole a league game from a Colby team that is nothing if not inconsistent. Middlebury has a strong core of starters and their record does not do their talent a justice. They are clearly a high level team in this conference along with the likes of Hamilton and Amherst. This weekend will be an opportunity for the Panthers to right the ship and get themselves back on course to compete for a NESCAC title or a NCAA bid. Bates on the other hand might want to keep celebrating that rivalry win last week for as long as they can. The Bobcats simply are not as talented as the rest of the NESCAC and their win over Colby was an absolute prayer. Before that game the Bobcats were on a 8 game losing streak and this game against Midd might just be a catalyst to start another one.

Spellman and the Bobcats will try to defend their home court tonight, coming off last weekend’s big NESCAC win against Colby.

Score Prediction: Midd 86 – Bates 69

Bowdoin (8-4, 1-1) @ Trinity (9-5, 0-2)

While Bowdoin’s record looks decent, their strength of schedule is not. They have had a fairly soft schedule to start the season and it showed in their game against Tufts where they just weren’t able to keep up. The trio of Hugh O’Neil ‘19, David Reynolds ‘20 and Jack Simonds ‘19 have been holding down the fort for the Polar Bears but they just can’t seem to figure out which other two players complement these guys best and that is where their struggles have come. The Bantams were thrown into the fire last weekend having to face two talented teams in #6 Hamilton and #24 Amherst. Up until these two games the Bantams looked like a quality team, having won 6 of their last 7. Trinity is a highly defensive team who can win a ball game while still scoring less than 70 points. I expect Trinity to turn it around on their home turf this weekend and hold back the Polar Bears in what is sure to be a defensive battle.

Score Prediction: Trinity 68 – Bowdoin 59

The First Real Challenge: Hamilton vs. Wesleyan Game of the Week Preview

Game of the week preview: Wesleyan vs. Hamilton

Overview: The undefeated Hamilton College Continentals will travel to Middletown, CT, this Friday to face off with the 9-4 Wesleyan Cardinals. Hamilton comes into this game ranked sixth in the country, while the Cardinals are outside looking in. The Cardinals are 1-1 in conference play with a win against a tough Middlebury team, but a big loss against the undefeated Williams College Ephs. Like I said in my preview a month ago, Wesleyan is big, tough, and athletic. Losing a guy like Jordan Sears was a heavy blow for the Cardinals, but Wesleyan still maintains its strong defensive identity. Allowing on average 68.5 points per game, Wesleyan ranks fourth in the NESCAC. Wesleyan’s field goal percentage has plagued them thus far. The Cardinals have one of the worst shooting percentages in the league at 43.9%. Wesleyan is led offensively by sophomore superstar Austin Hutcherson. Hutcherson has followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign with a stellar sophomore season so far. His 20.1 points per game ranks third in the league, while trailing Hamilton’s Kena Gilmour who averages 20.6 points per game. The matchup between Hutcherson and Gilmour will be fun to watch.

Hamilton needs to look out for Jordan Bonner on Friday night.

Both players seem to score at will in a variety of methods whether it be in transition or in a half-court set. These guys bring length to the guard position: Hutcherson stands about 6’ 6”, and Gilmour is 6’ 4”. Gilmour’s game is well-rounded because he not only scores well, but he’s tough on opposing ball handlers and rebounds well. Senior Michael Grassey of Hamilton will be another tough matchup for the Cardinals. Grassey is one of the best rebounders on the squad average around seven boards per game. He plays a Draymond Green style of play with strength inside, but also shooting to stretch the floor.

Don’t be surprised if Coach Riley puts Jordan James on him. James is having a breakout season as well. The long 6’ 7” forward will contest every shot, and is strong on the boards. He has the athleticism to run the floor with Hutcherson to dish to. This game will be Wesleyan’s third tough challenge in as many weeks. Starting off the season against Williams, Middlebury, and Hamilton is a daunting start of the season. The team can’t be so unhappy with the results so far, but picking up a win against Hamilton would be huge. Hamilton barely squeaked past Trinity, who doesn’t have nearly the team Wesleyan does. Like last year, this matchup is sure to be a thriller.

We expect to see some athletic and high-flying plays in this game.

X-Factors: This one’s pretty easy. How could I not pick Hutcherson and Gilmour? Hutcherson affects the game in so many ways. Coming in as a freshman and making the incredible impact he did right away, you come to realize the quality of player he is. It doesn’t appear that he gets rattled over the moment. Even though he’s one of the most electrifying players coming down the court in transition, I like his maturity in the half-court offense even more. He’s a smart player who knows how to run an efficient offense.

Kena Gilmour ’20

To cap it off, Hutcherson is a ninety percent free throw shooter. With the game on the line, you trust Hutcherson with the ball. You can’t say that about many college players especially underclassmen. Kena Gilmour has made his case to be regarded as one of the best players in the country. He statistics tell the whole story with his prolific scoring and steals. He’s very similar to Hutcherson in that he’s a young guard whom you trust to run the offense efficiently. I’m excited to see the plans Coach Reilly and Coach Stockwell devise to stop the opponent’s superstar guards.

Austin Hutcherson ’21

Final Thoughts:

This game is Hamilton’s biggest test so far in the season, while it’s one of the final really tough opponents Wesleyan will face for a while. Hutcherson has picked up some of the slack that Krill’s graduation left, but I’m not entirely sure that’ll be enough to dethrone Hamilton. Hamilton is playing great basketball right now, and I’m not sure that Wesleyan has played to their potential yet. My heart will always be with Wesleyan, but for this game, Hamilton is too good to pick against.

Prediction: Hamilton 84 Wesleyan 79

Waist deep in NESCAC play: Power Rankings 1/9

Now we’re really in the thick of things. While it is still totally unclear what the pecking order is for the bottom eight teams in the NESCAC, there has been lots learned after the first weekend of games and here is our best guess (yes, a total guess) at where the rest of the teams fall after Williams and Hamilton, because, yes, they are really just that good.

1. #2 Williams (12-0, 2-0)

Last Week: 68-54 W vs. Wesleyan, 95-69 W vs. Conn College

This Week: @ Tufts, @ Bates

The only thing I am surprised by from Williams’ games last weekend is that they didn’t score more points against Wesleyan. They saw uncharacteristically poor performances from their stars Kyle Scadlock and Bobby Casey as the duo shot a combined 6-25 on the night. As we know, shooting at a 24% clip just won’t cut it for the Ephs…if they’re going to win a national championship. They still managed to knock off a good Wesleyan team despite a terrible shooting performance. Having said that, in the future, they might not fare so well on such nights as the Cardinals shot just 27.9% as a team, which is undeniably horrible. Was it the defense or just an off night for Wesleyan? Hard to tell, but the Ephs still came out clean in the opening weekend and will own this spot until a team knocks them down.

2. #5 Hamilton (13-0, 1-0)

Last Week: 72-70 W vs. Trinity

This Week: @ Wesleyan, @ Conn

Hamilton is barely holding on the the #2 spot in these rankings as I do not like their ugly game against Trinity. Trinity, a squad with lots of roster turnover in more of a rebuilding mode, should not have given the highly touted Continentals such a run for their money. This first conference game was incredibly even and came after an off night for Hamilton, giving me even more doubts as there wasn’t a clear reason why they were met by an equal competitor in the Bantams. Trinity got hot in the game and shot well, but that happens from time to time and shouldn’t be a source of failure for a Hamilton team with their eyes on making a deep run in the NCAA tournament. They’re still #5 in the country and undefeated, so that’s worth something, but I’m not sure they’ll be here for the long haul. 

3. Amherst (11-1, 1-0)

Last Week: 84-55 W vs. Trinity

This Week: vs. Williams

I like what I’m seeing from this Amherst team. I didn’t have high expectations for them this season but Grant Robinson is doing a great job of leading a young team. Robinson scored 19 in their lone conference game and with him, Fru Che, and Eric Sellew, they have a talented core and are off to a hot start.

4. Wesleyan (11-3, 2-2)

Last Week: 54-68 L @ Williams, 80-77 W @ Middlebury

This Week: @ Conn, @ Wesleyan

I won’t fault Wesleyan for their loss to Williams—it was inevitable and not nearly as ugly as it could’ve been for how poorly the Cardinals played. They are a deep, big, and athletic team, and showed that they are capable of explosive games like in their contest against the Panthers. Austin Hutcherson put up a whopping 36 points on 12-22 shooting while Jordan Bonner posted a double-double to lead his team with ten boards. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Cards knock off Amherst or Hamilton in the near future.  

Hutcherson and the Cards are a dangerous group.

5. Middlebury (10-4, 1-1)

Last Week: 92-80 W vs. Conn, 77-80 L vs. Wesleyan

This Week: @ Bates, @ Tufts

I’m genuinely surprised by the Midd loss to Wesleyan. I’m not a very biased writer, but Midd always finds ways to win, especially at home. I’d like to chalk this one up to the student body not being at the game because of winter break, but that isn’t entirely fair to the efforts of the Wesleyan team. Midd got beat on defense and not one player had more than six boards on the night. Max Bosco has been great off the bench so far and bolsters a balanced lineup along with Jack Farrell, and Griffin Kornaker that spreads the ball out well but they just couldn’t quite get it done against Wesleyan and for the first time in a while find themselves outside the top four.

6. Bowdoin (8-4, 1-1)

Last Week: 72-57 W vs. Conn College, 79-87 L vs. Tufts

This Week: @ Trinity

This remains a team that performs below its potential. Jack Simonds, David Reynolds, Hugh O’Neil, and Jack Bors are a force to be reckoned with, however, they lost to a Tufts team that lost in turn to a young Colby Mules team. This is a team that has top four potential but need to be more consistent. In the loss against Tufts, O’Neil and Bors scored just 6 combined points (Bors had 0) and they allowed four Jumbos to score more than 14 points. Defense may be an issue going forward, but they can sure score.

The Polar Bears need some consistency from Hugh O’Neil.

7.  Colby (10-3, 1-1)

Last Week: 103-93 W vs. Tufts, 71-81 L vs. Bates

This Week: @ Trinity

It was a pretty bizarre opening weekend for the Mules, taking down a perennial power in Tufts and losing to one of the worst teams in the league in Bates. They had already beaten Bates and an inter-Maine game will never be a rollover contest, but seriously? Bates? If the Mules are really here to challenge top teams, they need to have a consistent approach to games and score more near the rim. They really lived and died by the three last weekend and it came back to bite them. Having said that, when they are hot, they are hot, so they could represent a trap game for many top teams. 

8. Tufts (6-8 1-1)

Last Week: 93-103 L @ Colby, 87-79 W @ Bowdoin

This Week: vs. Williams, vs. Midd

Like many teams, it was a mixed opening weekend for the Jumbos who find themselves below a team that they beat. They have a poor non-conference record which isn’t helping their ranking and a team that is not particularly deep. They will be out-talented by the top teams despite some scoring ability from all of their starters. Luke Rogers hauled in 16 boards against Bowdoin, but other than him, they really lack a rebounding presence at all and if he can get well-guarded, the Jumbos might be seriously deficient on defense.  

9. Trinity (9-5, 0-2)

Last Week: 55-84 L @ Amherst, 70-72 L @ Hamilton

This Week: vs. Bowdoin, vs. Colby

I’m terming Trinity’s opening weekend as mixed as Tufts because they nearly knocked off an impressive Hamilton team, losing 72-70. Nick Seretta and Donald Jorden made a statement in this game, combining for 39 points and shooting 17-23 as a pair. Jorden added 11 boards and led his team to a halftime lead against the #5 team in the nation. Kyle Padmore had a quiet night, shooting just 1-5 for just two point on the night and as one of the veteran presences on this team, he will have to have a bigger impact going forward.

10. Bates (3-10, 1-1)

Last Week: 70-99 L @ Bowdoin, 81-71 W @ Colby

This Week: vs. Midd, vs. Williams

I don’t really expect much from this Bates team, but their win against Maine rival Colby had to feel good in their opening weekend after losing to Bowdoin the night before. Granted their performance against Colby might just be the ceiling for how well they can play. They shot 65% from deep (11-17) while the Mules who were hot against Tufts show just 29% from deep. In other words, it required the perfect storm for Bates to overcome Colby.

11. Conn College (4-8, 0-2)

Last Week: 80-92 L @ Middlebury, 69-95 L @ Williams

This Week: vs. Amherst, vs. Hamilton

As one of just two winless teams after the first weekend, it would’ve been hard to not put Conn at the bottom of the barrel. Dan Draffan and David Labossiere are the only two weapons that the Camels have and Labossiere is significantly more dangerous than Draffan. The duo could get hot and give some weaker teams a run for their money, but as seen in their 26 point loss to Williams, they will just get flat out beat by the top teams in the league. I don’t think they will go winless in NESCAC lay if that is any consolation. 

Off to the Races: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 1/8

Now that one weekend of conference games is in the books, we can see how exciting this season is truly going to be. There is really no apparent hierarchy and every team displayed some sort of weakness that can be exploited as we move forward in the season. This weekend was really a microcosm of what NESCAC basketball looks like on a regular basis. We had a few blowouts, a few tight games, a few defensive battles, and a good number of shootouts. There was seemingly no discernable pattern of who’s beating who, and that’s exactly the way we like it. Every weekend is an interesting one, nearly impossible for us to predict. With that being said, let’s take a look at the best and worst performers of the first weekend to see where everybody stands:

Stock Up

Williams dominance

It was about as successful as it could have gone this weekend for the Ephs as they took care of Wesleyan and Conn College at home. The Wesleyan game especially passes the eye test because they were able to prove that they could win a defensive battle. We know that Williams can score, but the fact that they led a low-scoring game pretty much the entire way against the talented Cardinals shows that they can win in any fashion. Bobby Casey ’19 led the way against Conn College, posting a game-high 24 points and 8 assists in a rout of the Camels. The Ephs were playing as well as anyone in the preseason, but they’ve brought their dominance into NESCAC play and that is a scary sight for teams around the league.

Jack Simonds as a leader

Everything was falling for Jack Simonds this weekend, but we’ll find out if he is really here to stay

The top performer of the weekend was undoubtedly Jack Simonds. The senior put up an astonishing 55 points on 22-33 from the field and grabbed 15 rebounds combined in the matchups with Bates and Tufts. It felt like Simonds couldn’t miss all weekend and he certainly threw his name back into the conversation for NESCAC player of the year with his efforts. After a breakout sophomore year, Simonds had a bit of a down season in his junior campaign and Bowdoin struggled at times without his leadership. He has come into conference play firing on all cylinders after torching Bates and putting up a valiant effort in a loss versus Tufts. Bowdoin comes out of the weekend right in the thick of things at 1-1, but things are looking bright if Jack Simonds can keep putting out performances like these.

Stock Down

Hamilton dominance

This is not meant to take anything away from a win to start off NESCAC play for the Continentals, but the Bantams tested them on Sunday. It took a carrying violation against Trinity and then a basket with 0.8 seconds left for Hamilton to sneak out the win. The Bantams were embarrassed by Amherst in Western Mass on Friday so morale was low when they rolled into New York for their Sunday matchup. Hamilton couldn’t capitalize, and Trinity hung around for much too long in this one. Kena Gilmour ’20 was not himself at all, putting up 15 points and snatching only 4 rebounds, but fortunately Michael Grassey ’19 picked up the slack and was able to do just enough to secure the win. The Continentals are doing just fine, but being ranked #6 in the country is a very impressive feat. It’ll take a much less sloppy effort if they want to compete with the other top teams in the league moving forward. 

Clarity in the middle

Austin Hutcherson ’21 is identifying himself as the top option so far for the Cardinals

It’s never easy to identify the best teams this early in the season, but there are 6 teams that finished the weekend 1-1, and it wasn’t exactly the 6 that we may have thought. After looking really bad to start the season, Bates snagged a win at Colby and even Conn College battled tough with Middlebury until the very end. Tufts started off slow losing to Colby on Friday, but turned around and took care of Bowdoin on Saturday. Wesleyan looked very impressive at times too, but here they are at 1-1 with the rest of them. Trinity and Conn each went 0-2 on the weekend, but the way they played we can tell there won’t be a winless team in the NESCAC this year. All we can do now is wait another week to get a bigger sample size and start making some better assessments. I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a few 2-2 teams at the end of the second weekend…

Hope for Connecticut

I will admit that Wesleyan had a solid weekend and doesn’t have much to feel bad about at the moment, but Conn and Trinity aren’t doing them any favors in the early going. The state of Connecticut as a whole went 1-5 this weekend and only one of those losses was by fewer than 12 points. I’m not saying I expect to see these three schools at the top of the standings, but they certainly haven’t helped make a name for themselves so far. There’s never an easy game in this conference, so there’s no time to relax for any of the schools down in the NESCAC’s warmest state. Another weekend like this and we might have to start looking forward to the spring season when the southern schools get to have their moment.

5 Bold Predictions for the Rest of the Season

1. Williams wins the national championship

Matt Karpowicz ’20 is one of the many Ephs who will help pave the way for a deep tournament run

To be honest, this isn’t a particularly bold prediction. The Ephs are #2 in the nation and they have looked nearly unstoppable to this point in the season. Their average margin of victory is 26 and only 2 of their games have been decided by less than 10 points. What makes them so tough to stop is the fact that they have so many different guys that can beat you on a given night. If you try to play a zone then Bobby Casey ’19 and James Heskett ’19 will light you up from beyond the arc. If you don’t have a true big man then Matt Karpowicz ’20 and Michael Kempton ’20 will wreck you in the paint. If you don’t have at least one standout wing capable of playing defense at a high level then Kyle Scadlock ’19 is going score at will. These guys are as good as it gets at the D3 level and you can see it as soon as they step on the court – the average height of their starting lineup is 6’6” and not one of them is below 6’3”. Williams has made runs deep into the tournament in recent years, but this time they’ll come back with some hardware. Barring injury, the Williams College Ephs will be your 2019 NCAA Division III Basketball National Champions.

2. Hamilton wins the NESCAC championship

Kena Gilmour ’20 is one of the biggest stars that the NESCAC has to offer

Well, if anyone is going to take down the Ephs (at least before the NCAA Tournament) then there’s no doubt that the #5 team in the country has the best chance. The average height of their starters is 6’5”, so they’re really the only team that has the size to reasonably matchup with Williams. They’ve got a bona fide star in Kena Gilmour ’20, an array of athletic wings who can shoot the ball and have the athleticism to defend multiple positions, and a big man in Andrew Groll ’19 who anchors the team down low. They, too, have blown teams out of the water, with only 2 games within 10 points and an average margin of victory of 21. They shoot the ball at an astonishingly high rate (51.3% FG) and turn the ball over less than almost anyone. Essentially the only question that I have about them is whether or not their defense will be able to compete in a game when the shots simply aren’t falling. Like most NESCAC teams they haven’t played a very tough schedule so they’ve had their way with opposing defenses, but there will come a game when they just aren’t getting the bounces. I’m not sure that their defense is good enough to win a grind-it-out type game like this, which is also why I don’t see them being able to make a run in the NCAAs. What we do know is that their offense is as good as anyone in the nation, so I think they will get hot enough in a three game stretch to win the NESCAC title.

3. Bowdoin finishes third in the NESCAC

David Reynolds ’20 will have to keep producing at the same rate for Bowdoin to stay in contention

There’s no doubt that Williams and Hamilton are the top 2 teams in the conference, so the question seems to be who will finish 3rd. Things are much murkier in the middle, but I like what’s been going on in Brunswick so far this season. After a slow 2-3 start the Polar Bears have really found their identity, winners of their last 6 contests. The duo of Jack Simonds ’19 and David Reynolds ’20 is one of the most lethal scoring combinations in the league, with each of them averaging over 17 points per game. Zavier Rucker ’21 is one of the steadiest point guards out there, and he also adds a very viable third scoring option. His range certainly raises some questions as he’s only shooting 27.3% from 3-point land. Teams will definitely start to play off him a bit and respect his quickness, forcing him to shoot from farther out. He’ll have to get better from the outside to draw some of the attention away from Reynolds and Simonds. Hugh O’Neil ’19 is another elite big man who currently leads the league in field goal percentage (67.2%) while also coming in at 2ndin the league in rebounding (10.6 per game). This type of efficiency is exactly what Bowdoin is looking for out of their senior captain. What especially stands out about the Polar Bears is their strong upperclassman leadership. Aside from Rucker their main rotation of guys consists only of juniors and seniors, and this will go a very long way in a conference that is seeing a lot more asked of some of the younger players. Bowdoin has an excellent opportunity to make a leap into the top half of the NESCAC this season, and it all starts with the guys who have been there time and time again.

4. Colby leads NESCAC in scoring

Noah Tyson ’22 is potentially the most talented player on the Colby roster, and he’s only a freshman

This is another prediction that doesn’t appear to be very unreasonable given what we’ve seen so far – the Mules are 2nd to only Hamilton in points per game – but Colby has struggled mightily in recent years, including last year’s 10th place finish. What they have going for them this year is a very balanced scoring attack where all 5 starters average double figures in scoring. They attempt an incredible amount of 3-point shots, but this fast paced style is the way that they need to play since they lack a true big man and have a height disadvantage at almost every position on the court. When the game is moving at this type of pace it also means that they’ll be allowing a lot of points, so even if they do lead the league in scoring they very well could finish in the bottom of the standings again. For the fans, however, this makes almost every Colby game must-watch basketball. We’re likely to see lots of scores in the 80s and 90s, so it’s almost always going to be worth tuning in to the action in Waterville. Win or lose, it’s shaping up to be a very exciting season for Coach Strahorn and his squad.

5. Bobby Casey wins POY

Bobby Casey ’19 has a chance to be the second consecutive Eph to bring home the POY trophy

Although I wrote that Kena Gilmour was our prediction for Player of the Year in our awards preview a few weeks ago, it could be another southpaw that takes home the trophy at the season’s end. Teammate James Heskett ’19 earned POY honors last season, but this year it’s been Bobby Casey’s turn. The senior has been a lights out scorer this year, coming in at 5th in the league with 18.1 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field including over 45% from deep. He’s also grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game and dishing out a league-leading 4.5 assists per game. There’s no question that he benefits heavily from the fact that he’s the team’s primary ball handler and the talent that exists around him in Williams’ lineup is unparalleled. Not a lot of guys would be able to share the ball as much as he does while still getting a fair share of shots for himself. Either way, the Ephs are loaded and Casey is a star so he’ll be an interesting guy to keep an eye on as the season progresses. If they’re able to maintain the blistering start that they’re off to, you can bet that Casey will be leading the way.