#2 Colby (23-2, 8-2) vs. #3 Amherst (18-7, 7-3), 7pm, Medford, MA
Overview
The Mammoths come into this game very hot, winning 7 of 8 games over the past month. Recently they have been led by emerging star Garrett Day ’21 who is averaging over 20 points per game during this stretch and has now found himself a spot in the starting lineup. Historically Amherst has made their living by playing fundamentally sound basketball, being careful with the ball and playing gritty, hard-nosed defense. Well, this year is no exception. Right now the Mammoths allow the fewest points of anyone in the league and they turn the ball over less than anyone besides Middlebury. In their first meeting Amherst held Colby – the league’s highest scoring team by a large margin – to just 69 points on 37.5% shooting, however they also turned the ball over 22 times. They also shot 58.9% from the floor in that game, which is their second highest single-game shooting percentage of the season. Last time around the Mammoths may have been able to shoot their way out of some carelessness with the ball, but I expect them to put extra emphasis on sticking to their game plan and not let the Mules speed the game up too much.
I don’t think it’s fair to say that Colby has struggled recently, but things definitely haven’t been all sunshine and rainbows over the past few weeks like they were at the start of the season. The Mules are still 5-2 over their last 7 games, but when you get off to an 18-0 start any loss makes it look like you’re slowing down. One of the biggest question marks in this game is the status of Sam Jefferson ’20, who went down with an ankle injury 3 weeks ago against Hamilton. Jefferson is one of the most efficient and talented players in the league and still has a realistic shot at winning NESCAC Player of the Year despite missing several games. He didn’t play at all over the 4 games after his injury, but last weekend Coach Strahorn tried sending him out there during the Mules’ triple overtime victory over Bates in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately Jefferson immediately had to go back to the bench because it essentially looked like he was playing on one leg. If Coach Strahorn thought that there was a chance Jefferson could play last week, perhaps an extra week of rest and healing is all it will take for him to at least be able to contribute a good chunk of minutes. Colby has an array of guards who can spread the floor and shoot the crap out of the ball, but Sam Jefferson ’20 is an important piece of the puzzle and they certainly haven’t been the same team without him.
Amherst X-Factor
F Eric Sellew ’20 (13.3 PPG, 6.9 REB/G, 3.4 AST/G, 53.6% FG, 23 MIN/G)
There’s no doubt that Sellew is the X-Factor for the Mammoths in this one. Colby’s number one problem is that they lack size, so the fact that Sellew is 6’7” means that he should feast on the glass all night. He’s also a versatile scorer and his long wingspan makes him very difficult to guard around the basket. A shoulder injury in mid-January sidelined him for a few games, but it seems as though he’s back to full health. In their first meeting with the Mules Sellew struggled a bit, turning the ball over 7 times and only grabbing 4 rebounds (he did score 15 points). Amherst still won that game, but they can’t expect the same result if Sellew isn’t at his very best. With his injury in the rear-view mirror, he’s ready to lead the Mammoths to yet another deep postseason run.
Colby X-Factor
G Will King ’23 (9.7 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 5.8 AST/G, 50% FG)
King could not have picked a better time to have his best game of the season, netting 32 points, hauling in 11 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists in the Mules triple overtime victory over Bates in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. This guy has been one of the most impressive rookies in the league all season, but if he’s able to elevate his play even more in the postseason then Colby is primed for a deep playoff run. King is the NESCAC leader in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio, so we know he has great court vision and he’s careful with the ball. He’s also the tallest player in the starting lineup (albeit 6’5”), so he’ll need to continue hitting the boards to help with rebounding duties. His points per game average is a bit deceiving because he started the year off a bit slow scoring wise. Over the last 15 games he has reached double figures 10 times, most recently with his 32-point outburst last weekend. With everything else he does on the court, if King can increase his scoring totals then he’s going to really make an impact down the stretch.
Final Thoughts
Obviously the health of Sam Jefferson ’20 is a huge factor in this one, but I expect it to be a battle either way. NESCAC Tournament games have a flare for the dramatic and no one knows that better than these two teams who are both coming off overtime quarterfinal matchups. Garrett Day ’21 has emerged as the star over the second half of the season for Amherst and he’s been very hot as of late, but they’ll need guys like Fru Che ’21 and Josh Chery ’20 to step up as well if they want to keep up with Colby’s high octane offense. The Mules’ five-man backcourt of Jefferson, Noah Tyson ’22, Matt Hanna ’21, Alex Dorion ’20, and Will King ’23 can score on you in a hurry, but they had a season-low shooting percentage in their first go around against the Mammoths. Conversely, Amherst had their second highest field goal percentage of the season last time against the Mules. I wouldn’t bet on either of those happening again, particularly since they’ve each seen each other once and have made some adjustments heading into this meeting. Colby’s reliance on the 3-ball makes them really hard to trust in the postseason, even with a 23-2 record over the course of the season. Combine that with Jefferson’s status being up in the air, I think the third-seeded Mammoths are the favorites in this one.
Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83 – Colby 78