Stock Report 2/6
Now it’s getting really good. This is the time of year everyone looks forward to from day one of practice. We’ve got just one weekend left of conference basketball (and a makeup game between Amherst and Hamilton on Tuesday) to sort out the final standings. As you could probably guess, it’s absolute madness right now. Everything you thought you knew seems to change on a weekly basis, and now we’re at the part of the season when everything is magnified. It would be nice if we could start projecting conference tournament matchups, but I guess the players got together and decided they’d rather watch the world burn. Chaos sure is fun, so find out how the league is looking as we head into the final weekend:
Stock up
Chance for a crazier ending than last year
In the 2017-2018 season we saw one of the wildest endings to a season that we possibly could. Five teams finished tied atop the standings at 7-3, Tufts finished 6-4, and then teams 7-9 all finished 4-6. As you can imagine this led to the use of a number of tiebreakers to sort out playoff seeding, and the fact that teams 1 and 9 were separated by just 3 games is a real testament to how well balanced this league really is. Somehow this season it’s looking like we could be in for an even more exciting finish than last year. Right now there are four teams at the top with just two losses (although Williams and Middlebury have six wins while Amherst and Hamilton have just five), one team has three losses, one has four, three have five, and one has six. It is conceivable that by the end of the season there could be ties at any of the top 10 spots in the league. It is also conceivable that there are two different four-way ties, which would be absolutely absurd. This is what makes NESCAC basketball so much fun and we can certainly bank on even more insanity this weekend as conference play comes to a close.
Hamilton big 3
The Continentals have had a terrific year and much of that has been a result of the production they’re getting from their top 3 guys – Kena Gilmour, Peter Hoffmann, and Michael Grassey. These guys have led the way all year long, and they had a big weekend. In their game on Friday at Bates each of these three posted a double double, while also adding 3 or more assists. They were a bit quieter on Saturday when Gilmour actually had his worst game of the season with just 4 points and 6 assists, although Grassey and Hoffmann still found their way into double figures in scoring while grabbing at least 5 rebounds each. They’re all averaging at least 12 points and 4 rebounds a game, but even among these 3 guys, Kena Gilmour stands out. The top NESCAC POY candidate is putting up a league-best 19.4 points, grabbing 5.8 rebounds, and dishing out 3 assists per game to set the pace for Hamilton. This team is poised to make a run deep into the postseason, and it that won’t be possible without their big 3 taking the reigns.
Stock down
Week-to-week consistency
If there’s one thing I know for sure it’s that writing the weekend preview for NESCAC basketball on a weekly basis is nearly impossible. Right when you think you know how each team stacks up compared to each other, something totally crazy happens. Two weekends ago Trinity was absolutely annihilated twice, losing by 35+ points both games. This past weekend they came back and looked excellent, defeating both Wesleyan and Conn College en route to getting back into the playoff picture. Bowdoin hadn’t been playing well and was also coming off of two brutal losses, and they knocked off Williams in overtime. Tufts took down Wesleyan and Conn two weeks ago, and then followed that with a rough weekend against the likes of Amherst and Hamilton. Colby was riding high after winning road games against both Amherst and Hamilton, and then were handled by Middlebury and Williams the following week. It is so difficult to predict these games because there is so much talent across the conference. Anyone really can beat anyone on a given night and as a writer it drives me insane but as a fan it brings me about as much excitement as possible.
NESCAC East
I know, I know – the NESCAC isn’t split into two divisions in basketball. That said, I’m a baseball player so that’s the lens that I have on when looking at the conference. With this in mind, it’s very disappointing to see the five teams in the NESCAC West at the top of the standings in basketball while the five teams in the NESCAC East battle it out at the bottom. It seems fitting that Conn College sits at the bottom because at times it doesn’t even feel like they should be there at all. It is true that many of the perennial NESCAC powers are found in the west (i.e. Amherst, Williams, Middlebury) so that’s obviously something to think about, but come on. I go to Bates so of course I’d like to see my Bobcats higher up in the standings, but Trinity, Tufts, Bowdoin, and Colby aren’t helping us out very much here. We know that these teams are capable of beating the best, so maybe they’re just trying to make things interesting with a few first round upsets. Looks like we might just have to wait until baseball season to reverse the roles a little bit…
Chances of getting 5 teams in the NCAA Tournament
By almost all measures the NESCAC is the best conference in Division III basketball. It has the deepest pool of teams and a ton of historical success in the NCAA Tournament. Because of how talented the conference is we like to pride ourselves on getting as many as 5 berths into the NCAA Tournament – 4 at-large and 1 conference champion. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like this will be such a year, as Wesleyan just lost their 7th game of the year to Amherst last night. At this point it appears that Williams, Amherst, Hamilton, and Middlebury are locks to get into the tournament, but Wesleyan is just on the outside. The Cardinals very well have a chance to win the conference tournament to get a berth, but picking up an 8th loss in the conference tournament would all but end their chances of making it. Getting four teams into the NCAAs is definitely something to be proud of, but it would be pretty cool to see someone besides one of the top four win the conference tournament to steal a bid.