NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews
The best time of the year is here – playoff season, baby. Saturday is going to be an awesome day filled with awesome games that should be as exciting as ever. In fact, the lower seed beat the higher seed when the teams met in the regular season in three of the four first round matchups (with Williams vs. Trinity being the exception). Each of these teams will battle for the coveted automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament that is awarded to the winner of the NESCAC Championship, and it’s shaping up to be a very exciting tournament as always. The results of this tournament will have an impact on the NCAA Tournament field because the NESCAC could have anywhere from four to six teams in this year’s NCAA’s. If Colby and Wesleyan are able to steal a win or two (or even win the whole thing) then we could see some extra teams sneaking in. There’s still a lot left to play, so check out our previews for each of the quarterfinal matchups:
1. #25 Middlebury vs. 8. Tufts
We start off with a very interesting matchup between Tufts and Middlebury. In their regular season matchup the Panthers traveled to Medford and were dropped on a game winning shot by Brennan Morris ’21, keeping the Jumbos in the playoff race. That game also took place a very long time ago – over a month, in fact. Middlebury is a very different team now than they were then, and the Jumbos are very, very young. The trio of Matt Folger ’20, Jack Farrell ’21, and Max Bosco ’21 are averaging a combined 46 points per game and they have been absolutely on fire for the Panthers when they’ve needed it. The Jumbos are very guard-heavy and have proved that they’re capable of getting hot, so this could be an intriguing matchup between two particularly young backcourts. It’ll also be very interesting to see what we get out of the battle down low because each of these teams boast outstanding big men. Tufts features a 6’8”, 230lb giant in Luke Rogers ’21 who hauls in rebounds at a high rate and scores better than just about any other big in the league. On the other side, Eric McCord ’19 isn’t a huge contributor scoring-wise, but he averages a league-best 9.9 rebounds per game and does an excellent job locking down opposing centers. Both of these guys had big games in their first meeting, so if one if them can do a better job defending the other this time around then their team will have a huge advantage. Middlebury has (a little) more experience and I truly do think they’re the better team in this one, so I’m going with them to move on to the semifinals next weekend.
Prediction: Middlebury 86, Tufts 77
2. #10 Hamilton vs. 7. Colby
I feel like I find myself saying this a lot but I think this could be the year for Hamilton. They’ve had an outstanding season and have looking simply dominant much of the way. Their success has earned them a home game in the first round and a rematch with one of the only three teams that beat them this season. When they met in late January the Mules were able to travel to New York and take down the Continentals on the back of Sam Jefferson ’20 who scored 29 points on 9-14 shooting including 6-10 from three-point range. Colby is a team who, similar to Tufts, is very young and has a very promising future ahead of them. The problem is that I’m not sure if they’re quite ready to compete with the experience that a team like Hamilton brings to the table. Hamilton’s top six leaders in minutes played this season are all juniors and seniors, and they’ve been terrific. Led by NESCAC Player of the Year favorite Kena Gilmour ’20, the Continentals have shot their way to first in the league in points per game second in field goal percentage during their outstanding 2018-2019 season. The Mules aren’t far behind (3rd in PPG, 5th in FG%), and they’ve had some of the hottest shooting streaks we’ve seen in the NESCAC this year. I like that Colby is young and they play like they have nothing to lose because they don’t and I think they’re going to be great in the near future. This is going to be a close game, but I think that Hamilton’s depth and experience will end up being too much for the youthful Mules.
Prediction: Hamilton 90, Colby 87
3. #11 Amherst vs. 6. Wesleyan
I think that out of all the first round matchups, this is my favorite. The Little Three rivals split their regular season meetings, but the Cardinals won the official conference meeting. Wesleyan is not a particularly deep team but they’ve got a few stars that have taken them a very long way. I’d honestly be shocked if Austin Hutcherson ’21 didn’t take home a Player of the Year trophy in one of the next two years, because he has been absolutely outstanding. The league leader in points per game (20.4) has had some incredible performances this season, most recently coming in the form of a season-high 37 points on 81.3% shooting while adding 9 rebounds as well. This guy is a total stud who can light anyone up on any given night, but in the first two meetings between these two teams Hutcherson hasn’t looked quite as impressive. He totaled 25 points and 7 rebounds in those two games combined, well under his regular numbers. He’s going to play the biggest role on the Wesleyan side because if he comes to play then they’ll be very hard to stop. Amherst on the other hand plays a deeper rotation of guys and they share the scoring a bit more evenly. There’s no doubt that Grant Robinson ’21 is their go-to guy, but they have a number of players that can step up when they need to. They’re no. 11 in the country for a reason and there’s never a year when they should be taken lightly. However, star power goes a very long way in this league and Wesleyan wins the battle there. I’m going with the upset in this one.
Prediction: Wesleyan 66, Amherst 62
4. #18 Williams vs. 5. Trinity
It doesn’t bring me any joy to say this, but I’m not very excited for this one. Williams dominated Trinity in their regular season meeting and I don’t see this one being any different. The Ephs boast three of the most prolific scorers in the league in James Heskett ’19, Bobby Casey ’19, and Kyle Scadlock ’19, and these guys have now had so much experience playing in the NESCAC and NCAA Tournament over the past three seasons. The fact that Williams ended up the number four spot is very sneaky, because I still think they might be the favorites to win the whole thing. Bobby Casey ’19 is very much a candidate to win Player of the Year with his 18.5PPG (3rd in the NESCAC), 4.6AST/G (1st in the NESCAC), and 5.3REB/G. We’ve said it time and time again, but this team has a lethal combination of size and shooting ability that is nearly impossible to stop. I’m a bit surprised that Trinity ended up at 6-4 and in the fifth spot, but I certainly owe them one. They had a much better season than I predicted and Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 has emerged as one of the top forwards in the league. Jorden is actually 4th in the league in offensive rebounds per game, so the Ephs will have to be careful not to get lazy on the defensive glass. The Bantams have had an unpredictable season so there’s no question that they could come out and prove me wrong, but I just think that Williams is too good to lose this early. Their talent and experience is really unmatched and I see them making a very deep run. Somehow I think the 4-5 matchup is the worst out of all the first round games – I don’t think this game will be very close.
Prediction: Williams 83, Trinity 61