Tyler Aronson – Nothing But NESCAC

Disrespected No More: Medford Regional Preview

#20 Tufts (21-6, 9-2, NESCAC Champions)

Tufts secured their first NESCAC Championship in program history this past weeked, surviving a grueling double-overtime game against Colby in what will surely go down as an instant classic. Despite leading by as many as seventeen points late in the first half, the Jumbos simply could not put away the feisty Mules; maintaining a nine-point advantage with just under eight minutes remaining in regulation, Tufts allowed the visitors to surge ahead on a 15-2 run, capped off by Sam Jefferson’s three-ball with 2:51 on the clock. With the Jumbos trailing by one with eleven ticks left, a missed layup by senior leader Eric Savage ‘20 seemed to signal a potential sour ending in the team’s journey to capture a NESCAC Championship on their own floor. However, Savage was given an opportunity to redeem himself after Matt Hanna ‘21 calmly knocked down two free throws to stretch Colby’s advantage to three with six seconds remaining. The decision made by Coach Damien Strahorn to not foul was quite puzzling (although it is easier to say this behind a keyboard and not in the heat of the moment), but it nevertheless came back to bite the Mules as Savage drained a triple to send the game to overtime. The teams traded leads back-and-forth during the first few minutes, and Savage once again came up big with another three-ball to knot the game at 83 with 52 seconds left. The Mules answered thanks to Will King’s layup, but it was the Jumbos who once again refused to quit; Savage’s missed jumper was followed up by Dylan Thoerner ‘23, who was fouled with virtually zeros on the game clock. In arguably the most intense atmosphere the rookie had experienced in his playing career to this date, Thoerner cooly sunk both free throws to force double overtime. In the final five minutes, big man Luke Rogers ‘21 gave the Jumbos the lead for good with a layup followed by a successful three-point play, and with a plethora of converted free throws down the stretch, the Tufts’ players, coaches and fans erupted with joy as the seconds ran down, knowing they had finally emerged victorious.

How they Got Here

Luke Rogers ’21 *(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)*

All roads to success for the Jumbos lead through the duo of Savage and Rogers, who averaged a combined 32.7 ppg during the regular season. The two compliment each other very well, as opposing teams are normally left with no choice but to provide help defense with whoever is guarding Rogers down low, allowing for extra driving lanes and an extended perimeter to shoot from for Savage and the rest of the Jumbos’ sharpshooters. The veteran leadership from Savage, the only senior on the Jumbos’ roster, is extremely impressive considering where the Jumbos are now compared to a season ago. Despite flashing glimpses of their potential such as their shocking upset against top-seeded Middlebury in the NESCAC Quarterfinals, the 2019 season saw Tufts finish just 12-14 with a 4-6 record in-conference. The maturation and focus that was required of this team in order to regularly compete at the highest level was met with open arms, and the reward is the team’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2016.

While the offense certainly had its moments, the defense was key concerning Tufts’ successful path to securing a regional host. The Jumbos boast one of the stingiest defensive units in the conference, allowing opponents to shoot just 41% from the field. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (12.4 per game) but rather grind down opponents by keeping them outside the paint, leaving defenses frustrated after forcing contested shot after shot. And despite the lack of turnovers as a whole, steals have not been a problem to come by; all the guards have very active hands, constantly pressuring the ball-handlers and making life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition.

How they Lose

The Jumbos certainly have flaws on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end, poor free-throw shooting has plagued this team all season long. Quite frankly, it is a minor miracle they lost just six games while shooting 64% from the line as a team. Amongst the nine members of the team who average twelve minutes or more during a contest, only three of them (Brennan Morris ‘21 – 84.5%, Tyler Aronson ‘22 – 83.1%, and Thoerner – 78.3%) are reliable from the charity stripe. The other six? 56.3%. I have mentioned this in the past, but Rogers in particular can be exploited for his poor shooting efforts (79-171 from the free throw line this season, good for 46.2%) late in games as teams begin to foul intentionally.

Another common factor that seems to reoccur when the Jumbos drop a contest is the number of fouls the team picks up. As good as the defensive unit is, Tufts leads the NESCAC in fouls committed by a considerable margin with nearly 21 fouls per game. This essentially means that not only will the respective opponent experience a bonus opportunity in each half of the contest, but (more than likely) they will eclipse ten fouls and get to the double bonus. As Tufts heads to the Big Dance, opposing teams with deeper rosters will look to use the Jumbos’ aggressiveness against them and draw contact in order to pile up both the fouls on Tufts and the free throw attempts. Being in a familiar environment, however, should be beneficial for the NESCAC Champions, who have lost just one game in front of their faithful supporters this calendar year.

**Speaking of faithful supporters, shame on Johns Hopkins for hosting a regional and barring fans from partaking in the event. At the very least, the University should have notified the NCAA about their stance regarding the coronavirus and public sporting events sooner, so that the next highest seed could host and this type of situation would not occur. Cowards, all of you.

The Competition

Western Connecticut St. (20-7, 12-4, Little East Conference Champions)

The champs out of the Little East Conference started out slow, losing three out of four conference games in early January; however, they caught fire and closed out the season winning ten of eleven, including seven in a row. While the offense is nothing out of this world, the Colonials boast an extremely deep roster – thirteen players average at least eight minutes a game. Three players average double figures, led by senior forward Fenton Bradley ‘20 (16.1 PPG, 6.3 REB/G). Ahmod Privott ‘22 (10.6 PPG), Jaheim Young ‘23 (10.3 PPG), and first-team all name selection Legend Johnson ‘21 (8.6 PPG) round out the top scoring threats for Western Connecticut St. In all honesty, the Jumbos should have no problem taking care of the Colonials: after all, Bradley is the team’s tallest player at 6’7’’, and even if he were to limit Rogers in some fashion, the Colonials’ supporting cast severely lacks the height and size to continuously bang down low. I expect a bit of nerves from the Jumbos to begin, but by the second half, things should start flowing. Give me the Jumbos by 15+.

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 78 – Western Connecticut 62

The Other Two:

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (23-4, 17-1, at-large bid)

If Tufts advances to the round of 32, Rensselaer looks like the odds-on favorite to be their next opponent. Prior to falling to Ithaca College, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute was previously the 24th-ranked team in the nation. After an 0-2 start to the season, RPI thoroughly dominated their schedule and only dropped two contests the rest of the way (both to Ithaca College). The tone-setter for this squad is most certainly their defense, allowing a mere 60.6 PPG. Tufts will most certainly have their work cut out for them on the offensive end, as the Engineers force over 16 turnovers per game. Similarly to Western Connecticut St., the offensive unit will not strike a ton of fear into Tufts’ hearts, but they do possess a slew of players that can create their own shots. Patrick Mahoney ‘21 leads all scorers on the Engineers with 15.1 points per contest and chips in with 5.7 rebounds/game. Mason Memmelaar ‘22 (13.2 PPG, 5.5 REB/G) and Dom Black ‘22 (11.4 PPG, 6.2 REB/G) round out the other two reliable scorers, while Johnny Angbazo (43.5% from three) ‘23 and Will Rubin ‘23 (9.2 PPG, 39.1% from three) will absolutely knock down shots if not given the proper attention.

New England College (21-6, 10-2, New England Collegiate Conference Champions)

The Pilgrims enter the NCAA Tournament in brilliant form, winners of ten straight (seven of those by double digits). What’s more is that they already own a victory over the Jumbos, a 59-56 defensive battle that saw Tufts turn the ball over 23 times. The game was quite uncharacteristic for both teams involved, but was especially so for the Pilgrims, who average close to 90 points per game. New England College features five different players who average double figures, led by Izaiah Winston-Brooks ‘20 (18.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G) and Jamal Allen ‘22 (15.0 PPG). They love to drive into the lane and get to the free throw line, averaging right around 16 attempts per game. The defense is below average, allowing over 80 points a game and struggles to rebound the ball. It really is quite puzzling that Tufts fell to a team with this poor of a defensive unit, but upon realizing this was a non-conference meeting during the normal conference slate, the sloppy play is not totally surprising. If they meet again, Tufts should be able to re-enforce their defensive superiority and limit the Pilgrims’ talented weapons, but this is certainly a team to keep an eye on as a potential sleeper in this regional.

All Roads Go Through Medford: Stock Report 2/6

Stock Up

Tufts

This one is relatively straightforward, but the Jumbos are for real: anyone who was not a believer in this squad before Saturday’s monumental home victory against the Mules, you are surely one now. Tufts was not even remotely phased by Colby’s plethora of talented guards, sticking with their plan of centering their offense around big man Luke Rogers ‘21. The big fella got his own with 19 points and 12 boards, and both Eric Savage ‘20 (22 points, 6 rebounds) and Tyler Aronson ‘22 (14 points) provided big buckets down the stretch, allowing Tufts to pull away. What was most impressive above all, however, was the stifling defense displayed by the Jumbos against one of the country’s most prolific offenses. Tufts held Colby to just 41% shooting from the field, smothering (in particular) Sam Jefferson ‘20 (three points on 1-5 shooting). With an immaculate 6-0 record in conference, Tufts is now (in theory) two full games ahead of Colby for first place because of their head-to-head victory and should absolutely be placed higher than their #21 national ranking. The slate ahead won’t be particularly easy with road games remaining against Trinity, Middlebury and Williams, but the Jumbos fear no one and have made it clear to the rest of the NESCAC that they (not Colby) are the best team in the league.

Donald Jorden Jr. ‘21 and Trinity

Don’t look now, but Jorden is quietly cementing himself as one of the best big men in the NESCAC. Over the past three games, the 6’6’’ junior is averaging 16.0 PPG and a jaw-dropping 15.6 REB/G. His seven offensive rebounds in Trinity’s upset victory against Middlebury displays how relentless Jorden is on the glass, and it is truly safe to say that he is the most instrumental player to both the Bantams’ recent success. The weekend sweep of Middlebury and Williams vaulted Trin into the third spot in the standings, and with a home game against Tufts still to come, a higher ascension within the conference standings is not totally out of the question.

League Parity

It’s not even March and the NESCAC is already experiencing some early madness vibes. Aside from Tufts (6-0), Colby (6-1), and Conn (0-6), the rest of the NESCAC is separated by two games or fewer. While it may come to hurt some teams seeking an at large bid, it nonetheless makes for an exciting home stretch in which no game is really an absolute gimme for any team. Even the infamous Conn College, despite their winless streak in conference play reaching 27 games, has started to show signs of life with a double-overtime heartbreaker to in-state rival Trinity coupled with a hard-fought loss to Middlebury (whom they were beating midway through the second half). Bowdoin’s upset over Bates has allowed them back into the playoff picture, patiently waiting behind the cluster of Williams, Bates, Hamilton and Wesleyan, all sitting with four losses. Next week will surely see some movement in the standings, but I’ll be the first to admit that most of these matches can go either way.

Stock Down

Bates’ Playoff Chances

The Bobcats might very well be the most volatile team in the ‘CAC this season – they can compete with the very best (as we saw last weekend giving the Jumbos all they could handle), and yet struggle with some of the traditional bottom-feeders. This type of behavior was on full display on Friday and Saturday; Bates went toe-to-toe with Colby for roughly 25 minutes before the defense collapsed, and then proceeded to sleepwalk the following day against Bowdoin. Having already defeated the Polar Bears comfortably by 14 on the road earlier this season, I assumed that, despite the natural hangover that comes with losing to your rival, the ‘Cats would rebound quickly against their other in-state rival in a must-win game. Instead, the Bobcats turned in their worst offensive performance of the season, shooting an abysmal 31.9% from the field. Sitting at 2-4 in conference play and currently tied for seventh (they hold the tiebreaker over Hamilton and Wesleyan due to their head-to-head victories), Bates is still firmly in the playoff picture – however, all four of their remaining conference games are on the road, and besides Conn (who is still not nearly as much of a pushover as we previously thought), all of those games are against very quality opponents in Trinity, Williams, and Middlebury. It’s safe to say the Bobcats now face an absolute must-win against the Camels, and will probably need another victory from that other group of three in order to safely secure a spot in the conference tournament.

Middlebury

The Panthers are in trouble not so much for the conference tournament as they are for their overall seeding come national tourney time. Checking in as the current five seed in the NESCAC isn’t the best look for a top fifteen team nationally, who is expected to run the table of sorts and dominate inferior opponents. It was a relatively rough weekend for Midd as they dropped one to Trinity and severely struggled with Conn until midway through the second half. The remaining slate isn’t the most favorable for the Panthers, having to hit the road next weekend to face a desperate Cardinals team before hosting both the undefeated Jumbos and a talented, yet inconsistent Bobcats squad the following weekend. The offense has experienced a slight downward tick in production over those past two games, but there’s plenty of time for a team as uber-talented as Middlebury to pick up the pace and head into the conference tournament on a high note.

Age is Just a Number: Tufts Men’s Basketball Preview 2019-2020

Tufts University Jumbos

2018-2019 Record: 12-14 (4-6 NESCAC), lost in semifinals of NESCAC Tournament

2019-2020 Projected Record: 17-9 (5-5 NESCAC)

Key Losses: None

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Carson Cohen ’22 (7.9 PPG, 2.1 REB/G, 3.1 AST/G)

Cohen broke onto the NESCAC scene last year with a very fine season for a freshman. He posted solid numbers and displayed some truly impressive quickness and court vision, making him the Jumbos de facto point guard. Cohen has a very high basketball IQ and did a nice job minimizing turnovers last year, but there is definitely room to grow…literally. There were times last season when Cohen looked a bit undersized, making it difficult for him to matchup with bigger guards and making it difficult for him to be physical inside. It appears as though Cohen addressed this problem in the offseason because he looks noticeably more filled out this year and even grew an inch (according to the roster). Tufts might need to start looking out for those notorious random drug tests that the NESCAC is so well known for…

G: Tyler Aronson ’22 (10.1 PPG, 3.2 REB/G, 2.8 AST/G)

This guy is the X-Factor for Tufts this year, no doubt about it. Aronson is one of the most sneaky-athletic players in the league and it’ll really surprise you when he throws down a dunk in the lane despite being only 6’2”. He can also shoot the lights out, but didn’t really display that in his freshman campaign. This season Aronson is off to a blazing hot start, shooting nearly 50% from 3-point land and averaging almost 13 points per game. He has the potential to be one of the most talented guards in the NESCAC if he can harness his athleticism and stay under control because he does have a tendency to get a little ahead of himself and try to rush things. If Aronson can play within the system and stay under control he will be very difficult to stop given all the other weapons that the Jumbos have.

G: Eric Savage ’20 (16.0 PPG, 6.4 REB/G, 3.5 AST/G)

Aside from having the best last name in the league, Savage brings a lot to the table. He has been a leader for the Jumbos from the first day he set foot on campus and now he finds himself as the leading scorer and captain of this team. At this point there isn’t much left to ask of Savage besides putting up star-caliber numbers and that’s no small task. His numbers have steadily improved over the course of his career, but so far this year it seems like he has reached a plateau. As I said before it’s very challenging for a player of Savage’s stature to improve in any particular area, but that’s what Tufts is going to need him to do if they’re going to get to the next level. The Jumbos took a step back last year and seemed to descend into relative mediocrity, so the lone senior on the roster will have to get his back ready for one last chance to carry this team to the top.

F: Brennan Morris ’21 (13.9 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 44.2% 3PT)

Here’s a guy you really have to watch out for. Morris is a physical, 6’6” wing who is an absolute sniper. His 44.2% clip from downtown last season was good for 2^nd in the league and this season he’s picking up right where he left off. Morris plays a unique role on this team because he’s really their only true wing so he has to spend a lot of time defending the NESCAC’s premier 3’s and 4’s. This can really take a toll on guys, so it’s essential that Morris gets enough rest to be able to play the most important minutes every game. He has also proven that he is someone who needs to be on the floor in crucial moments, as evidenced by his game winner with seconds remaining to take down the first place Middlebury Panthers a year ago. Morris may not be the flashiest or most explosive player on the team, but without him the Jumbos would be in a very different place.

C: Luke Rogers ’21 (14.0 PPG, 9.1 REB/G, 55.6% FG)

Rogers is one of the few centers in this league that has an enormous impact on every game he plays in. He’s a double double machine, with 15 in his career and 4 already this season – in fact he’s averaging 14 points and 12 rebounds per game through 9 games this year. Throw in his career 55.8% from the field and you can start to see how much of a threat he really is. This type of production will be very hard to sustain, but Rogers’ career arc seems to indicate that he’s up for the challenge. One thing I find very interesting is that Tufts lists each player’s major on their online roster and I couldn’t help but notice that Rogers majors in History and Entrepreneurship. I’m not sure if that’s the name of one joint major or if Rogers is a double major, but I certainly hope it’s the former. I’ve never been a particular fan of the Jumbos, but entrepreneurship as a legit major?? Come on, guys. If nothing else we’ll just have to watch and see how Rogers’ entrepreneurial skills manifest themselves in his on-court performance.

Everything Else:

Last year was a bit of a wakeup call for Tufts as they were faced with the loss of an enormous group of seniors who were all important contributors to their national powerhouse teams from years prior. In fact, they didn’t have a single senior on their roster last season and Eric Savage ’20 is the only senior this season, so it appears that the Jumbos are on an upward trend once again. That said, it’s hard to judge exactly where they’re at right now. They’re off to a solid 7-2 start including an impressive win over MIT, but for the most part it’s the same cast of characters that finished 12-14 last year.

Coach Sheldon is building a classic NESCAC basketball team in Medford, anchoring a true center in Luke Rogers ’21 in the paint and surrounding him with playmaking guards who can shoot you out of the gym. Will Brady ’21, for example, is a guy who frankly doesn’t offer much except for the fact that he’s lethal from downtown. At 6’1”, 190lbs he lacks the foot speed to keep up with guards and the size to matchup with wings. This means that they pretty much have to stick him in the corner and tell him to shoot when he catches the ball. Another guy like this is Justin Kouyoumdjian ’21 who takes care of the ball, but really doesn’t do anything besides hit a shot once in a while and give the starters some rest. Coach Sheldon also brought in Casey McLaren ’23 and Dylan Thoerner ’23, two freshman wings that he hopes will play a similar to Brennan Morris ’21, while bringing some much-needed size to their backcourt (and maybe bringing back some faint memories of Vinny Pace). The Jumbos also employ big Max Oppenheim ’21 off the bench who is essentially a slower Luke Rogers ’21 with a less refined skillset – he’ll basically only set foot on the court when Rogers needs a break.

Tufts is still a very young team that has a long way to go, but it’ll be interesting to see how competitive they are this year now that they’ve got a few years of experience under their belts. An interesting note about their schedule is that they have a brutal stretch of four road games at the end of the year in the final two NESCAC weekends – at Trinity, at Conn College, at Middlebury, and at Williams. This will be a very intriguing stretch for the Tufts because at that point in the season they could be going in any direction. If they get hot at the right time and gain momentum heading into the conference tournament, this will be a very dangerous team come postseason play. If they hit a few bumps in the road and decide to roll over, the end of the season will not be very kind to the Jumbos.

Can the Underdog pull it off? Tufts @ Hamilton Semifinal Preview

Tufts pulled off what some consider the impossible last weekend. The Jumbos made the tumultuous trek up to Vermont and defeated top seeded Middlebury. The Jumbos were led by freshman guard, who went to my high school, Tyler Aronson. Aronson played an all around complete game, proving to the conference why he will be an elite player for years to come. Similar to what happened to UVA last year during March Madness, Tufts was not intimidated by playing the top seed. The Jumbos looked poised and cruised to a nine point victory. Tufts’ opponent this weekend, Hamilton, should be weary about playing Tufts. It was about three weeks ago when Hamilton squeaked out a four point win against the Jumbos. I consider three weeks an eternity ago. Like Jim Mora famously muttered, “Playoffs?!” the playoffs in any sport have proved to be a different beast. Considering how competitive the league is, which Tufts displayed this past weekend, Hamilton needs to come out of the gates hot. The Continentals need to prove why they’re hosting the game— boasting an earned cockiness and swagger. Hamilton beat Williams and lost by a point to Midd this month. Kena Gilmour continues to dominate the scoring sheet. Gilmour has proven to be the league’s elite scorer this year. Even though basketball is a team game, I am excited to see the individual match up of Aronson versus Gilmour this weekend. Let’s take an in depth preview of the game.

Eric Savage needs to move a mountain to bring the Jumbos some rings.

Overview

Tufts is one of those teams no one wants to play in the playoffs. They’re simply a team with momentum. You know those teams. The ‘07 Giants, who barely earned a wildcard, went on to defeat the 18-0 Patriots. The Blackhawks when Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews were in their primes. And most famously, the 1980 Men’s Olympic hockey team. Their run was quite a ‘miracle.’ Tufts, based on their regular season performance, doesn’t deserve to be in this spot. Their 4-6 conference record barely squeaked them into the playoffs. Then they go and beat a one seed. That’s sports. Every game starts 0-0. Previous games don’t matter; it’s what about what you give today. Although at first glance it’s a shock for Tufts to have defeated Midd, it’s terribly surprising. Tufts has a young squad led by veteran coach Bob Sheldon. Coach Sheldon has been around the block a few times. He has experience in big games and knows how to create a game plan that once featured big man Tom Palleschi and now is centered around guard Tyler Aronson. I will get to Aronson in the next section, but now I want to focus on Tufts as a team. Their general statistics don’t jump out at me. They shoot 43% from the field and around 32% from deep. What is particularly striking is that they have a 66% free throw percentage. I don’t want to jinx anything, but having a number like that may come back to bite them in a big game. The Jumbos on average get outrebounded per game as well. Was their victory against Midd an anomaly? Maybe. I don’t want to say anything further, however, since playoffs are so much about momentum. Frankly, numbers get thrown out the window at this point.

Hamilton has five legitimate weapons in their starting lineup.

Hamilton has been a powerhouse all year long. They’re that team who you know is very good, but for some reason, they don’t garner the same respect as a Williams or Midd. One reason is that Hamilton is so far away. In the NEW ENGLAND Small College Athletic Conference, an upstate New York school outside of Utica is out of the picture. The Continentals have proven year in and year that they’re a very good basketball team. This year is no different. Hamilton posted a solid 7-3 conference record—finishing nearly undefeated at home (11-1). I am going to take one more shot at upstate New York here. Tufts playing Hamilton is like the Florida Gators traveling to play the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. That ride is far even if you’re not playing the day of travel. Regardless of home court advantage, Hamilton has proven that defense wins games. They allow on average 70 points per game, one of the best in the league. They’re tough inside too with a six rebound advantage per game. Hamilton plays a tough brand of basketball with a potent inside force and strong scoring led by Kena Gilmour.

Tufts X-Factor

G Tyler Aronson

Aronson, a Holliston, Mass, native and my former classmate at Rivers, has been the guy for Tufts all season. He has averaged 9.4 points this season and posted solid assists and turnover numbers. I do not think Aronson’s stats jump off the page. He is not the guy that will get you twenty-five, ten, and five on a daily basis. He is, however, one of the smartest basketball players I have seen. I want the ball in his hand with the game on the line. His handle is one of the best in the league and is a smart player. He will not throw away the game with a stupid turnover. I am excited to watch him develop into one of the league’s best these next few years. He is not huge like Wesleyan’s Austin Hutcherson, but he’s quick and bouncy. He can seriously fly. If Tufts wins the game, I guarantee Aronson will have a breakout game.

Hamilton X-Factor

G Kena Gilmour

In life people overcomplicate things. They think in order to sound smart they have to sometimes evade a logical answers. Think back to all those multiple choice exams. What if instead you picked the answer that was a bit more wordy and complex, you picked the one that simply answered the question in a well-constructed sentence? Makes you wonder. Kena Gilmour is the obvious choice for Hamilton’s x-factor. Sure he has great teammates, but he has proven that he is one of the best in the league scoring wise. Aronson can use Gilmour as a model for his own progression. Gilmour needs to start off hot to show that he is the alpha right now in the league. He needs to assert himself right away. He and Hamilton can’t let Tufts have a glimmer of hope. He needs to crush any hopes of a Tufts’ miracle from the jump.

Final thoughts

Aronson has come out of nowhere to put Tufts in the Semis.

This game is definitely an interesting matchup. Every single statistic I look at points in Hamilton’s favor. The Continentals have a better offense, defense, home court advantage, etc. You get the general picture. Something doesn’t sit right by writing Tufts off immediately. Aronson is a young, confident player. He has young guys around him looking to make a difference. There’s no reason to pick Tufts except for the fact that they’re coming off a huge win at Midd. It’s like I am sitting in that multiple choice exam where the right answer is in front of me, but there is another option that mentions something from a textbook reading from the first week of the semester. I am split; however, I cannot go against the simple answer. Hamilton will win this game.

Hamilton 87 Tufts 79

One and Done?: NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews

NESCAC Championship Quarterfinal Previews

The best time of the year is here – playoff season, baby. Saturday is going to be an awesome day filled with awesome games that should be as exciting as ever. In fact, the lower seed beat the higher seed when the teams met in the regular season in three of the four first round matchups (with Williams vs. Trinity being the exception). Each of these teams will battle for the coveted automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament that is awarded to the winner of the NESCAC Championship, and it’s shaping up to be a very exciting tournament as always. The results of this tournament will have an impact on the NCAA Tournament field because the NESCAC could have anywhere from four to six teams in this year’s NCAA’s. If Colby and Wesleyan are able to steal a win or two (or even win the whole thing) then we could see some extra teams sneaking in. There’s still a lot left to play, so check out our previews for each of the quarterfinal matchups:

1. #25 Middlebury vs. 8. Tufts

*Tyler Aronson and the Jumbos will have to make a little tournament magic happen if they want to pull off the upset*

We start off with a very interesting matchup between Tufts and Middlebury. In their regular season matchup the Panthers traveled to Medford and were dropped on a game winning shot by Brennan Morris ’21, keeping the Jumbos in the playoff race. That game also took place a very long time ago – over a month, in fact. Middlebury is a very different team now than they were then, and the Jumbos are very, very young. The trio of Matt Folger ’20, Jack Farrell ’21, and Max Bosco ’21 are averaging a combined 46 points per game and they have been absolutely on fire for the Panthers when they’ve needed it. The Jumbos are very guard-heavy and have proved that they’re capable of getting hot, so this could be an intriguing matchup between two particularly young backcourts. It’ll also be very interesting to see what we get out of the battle down low because each of these teams boast outstanding big men. Tufts features a 6’8”, 230lb giant in Luke Rogers ’21 who hauls in rebounds at a high rate and scores better than just about any other big in the league. On the other side, Eric McCord ’19 isn’t a huge contributor scoring-wise, but he averages a league-best 9.9 rebounds per game and does an excellent job locking down opposing centers. Both of these guys had big games in their first meeting, so if one if them can do a better job defending the other this time around then their team will have a huge advantage. Middlebury has (a little) more experience and I truly do think they’re the better team in this one, so I’m going with them to move on to the semifinals next weekend.

Prediction: Middlebury 86, Tufts 77

2. #10 Hamilton vs. 7. Colby

I feel like I find myself saying this a lot but I think this could be the year for Hamilton. They’ve had an outstanding season and have looking simply dominant much of the way. Their success has earned them a home game in the first round and a rematch with one of the only three teams that beat them this season. When they met in late January the Mules were able to travel to New York and take down the Continentals on the back of Sam Jefferson ’20 who scored 29 points on 9-14 shooting including 6-10 from three-point range. Colby is a team who, similar to Tufts, is very young and has a very promising future ahead of them. The problem is that I’m not sure if they’re quite ready to compete with the experience that a team like Hamilton brings to the table. Hamilton’s top six leaders in minutes played this season are all juniors and seniors, and they’ve been terrific. Led by NESCAC Player of the Year favorite Kena Gilmour ’20, the Continentals have shot their way to first in the league in points per game second in field goal percentage during their outstanding 2018-2019 season. The Mules aren’t far behind (3^rd in PPG, 5^th in FG%), and they’ve had some of the hottest shooting streaks we’ve seen in the NESCAC this year. I like that Colby is young and they play like they have nothing to lose because they don’t and I think they’re going to be great in the near future. This is going to be a close game, but I think that Hamilton’s depth and experience will end up being too much for the youthful Mules.

Prediction: Hamilton 90, Colby 87

3. #11 Amherst vs. 6. Wesleyan

*Austin Hutcherson hopes to lead a tournament run in just his second season*

I think that out of all the first round matchups, this is my favorite. The Little Three rivals split their regular season meetings, but the Cardinals won the official conference meeting. Wesleyan is not a particularly deep team but they’ve got a few stars that have taken them a very long way. I’d honestly be shocked if Austin Hutcherson ’21 didn’t take home a Player of the Year trophy in one of the next two years, because he has been absolutely outstanding. The league leader in points per game (20.4) has had some incredible performances this season, most recently coming in the form of a season-high 37 points on 81.3% shooting while adding 9 rebounds as well. This guy is a total stud who can light anyone up on any given night, but in the first two meetings between these two teams Hutcherson hasn’t looked quite as impressive. He totaled 25 points and 7 rebounds in those two games combined, well under his regular numbers. He’s going to play the biggest role on the Wesleyan side because if he comes to play then they’ll be very hard to stop. Amherst on the other hand plays a deeper rotation of guys and they share the scoring a bit more evenly. There’s no doubt that Grant Robinson ’21 is their go-to guy, but they have a number of players that can step up when they need to. They’re no. 11 in the country for a reason and there’s never a year when they should be taken lightly. However, star power goes a very long way in this league and Wesleyan wins the battle there. I’m going with the upset in this one.

Prediction: Wesleyan 66, Amherst 62

4. #18 Williams vs. 5. Trinity

It doesn’t bring me any joy to say this, but I’m not very excited for this one. Williams dominated Trinity in their regular season meeting and I don’t see this one being any different. The Ephs boast three of the most prolific scorers in the league in James Heskett ’19, Bobby Casey ’19, and Kyle Scadlock ’19, and these guys have now had so much experience playing in the NESCAC and NCAA Tournament over the past three seasons. The fact that Williams ended up the number four spot is very sneaky, because I still think they might be the favorites to win the whole thing. Bobby Casey ’19 is very much a candidate to win Player of the Year with his 18.5PPG (3^rd in the NESCAC), 4.6AST/G (1^stin the NESCAC), and 5.3REB/G. We’ve said it time and time again, but this team has a lethal combination of size and shooting ability that is nearly impossible to stop. I’m a bit surprised that Trinity ended up at 6-4 and in the fifth spot, but I certainly owe them one. They had a much better season than I predicted and Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 has emerged as one of the top forwards in the league. Jorden is actually 4^th in the league in offensive rebounds per game, so the Ephs will have to be careful not to get lazy on the defensive glass. The Bantams have had an unpredictable season so there’s no question that they could come out and prove me wrong, but I just think that Williams is too good to lose this early. Their talent and experience is really unmatched and I see them making a very deep run. Somehow I think the 4-5 matchup is the worst out of all the first round games – I don’t think this game will be very close.

Prediction: Williams 83, Trinity 61

New Year, New Pecking Order: Holiday Power Rankings

2019 Preseason Holiday Power Rankings

1.) #2 Williams (9-0)

This Williams team looks nearly unstoppable. They have three players averaging over 14 points per game and three averaging over five boards per game, dominating each of their nine opponents thus far. Bobby Casey has been lights out from deep, draining 47.7% of his threes, Scadlock has been electric from the floor, shooting over 60% from the field, and James Heskett has been doing his thing for the Ephs, following up his All-American season with some more balanced numbers among a more talented supporting cast with the return of Scadlock. Matt Karpowicz and Michael Kempton have been doing well all around as a big man unit, averaging a combined 14 PPG and over ten boards, equalling a dual double-double. No NESCAC team can match the size and big-game experience of this Eph team with the Continentals as the only real threat on their road to a second straight NESCAC championship.

Casey and the Ephs are not going to be a fun opponent this season.

2.) #5 Hamilton (9-0)

I’ve been a big fan of this unit that Coach Stockwell has developed for quite some time. They were set on a course for predestined greatness in this 2018-2019 season long ago when the group of Peter Hoffmann, Tim Doyle, Andrew Groll, and Michael Grassey joined forces in the 2015-2016 season. Those four along with the most athletic player in the lineup, junior Kena Gilmour, make up this team that could bring the Continentals their first major men’s sports championship in who knows how long. Gilmour and Grassey are doing most of the scoring in the perfect 9-0 start to the season, averaging 19.7 and 15.2 PPG, respectively. They are a balanced team and Gilmour, Grassey, and Groll all haul in over five boards per game. Their trusty point guard, Doyle, dishes out passes to the rest of the shooters and is the glue that keeps the gears turning and rounds out the deadly group that is, top to bottom, without any glaring weaknesses.

Gilmour’s Continentals are the biggest threat to the Ephs in 2019.

3.) Amherst (7-1)

This is a bit of a surprise for me as I figured that after losing some studs, the Mammoths would enter more of a rebuilding year. Their only loss so far was to the 2017 national champion Babson Beavers and they received votes in the last D3 Hoops rankings. Their big man, Joe Schneider, is their only senior, boding well for the future of this historically dominant program. Grant Robinson is leading the way on the scoring front with 15.8 PPG with Eric Sellew putting in 9.6 PPG, and sixth man-to-be and deep threat off the bench, Garrett Day, dropping 9.3 PPG in just 17.3 minutes per game. Five Mammoths average over four rebounds per game and while Robinson is the closest they have to a superstar, they are a deep team with many possible contributors and several wild card players who entered into new roles at the start of this season.

4.) #24 Middlebury (8-2)

This is an unusual year for the Panthers as they are without a true leader on the court like they have had the past few years. Matt Folger is the most talented player on the floor for Midd and has been off to a hot start, putting up 16.0 PPG, shooting over 50% from the field and over 47% from deep which is going to need to be sustainable for the Panthers to have a shot to compete with Bobby Casey and the Ephs. My biggest concern for the Panthers this season was at the guard position as they lost Jack Daly and had a big scoring, passing, and rebounding hole to fill. Jack Farrell, Max Bosco, and Griffin Kornaker have all contributed surprisingly well so far this year, making up the next wave of elite Panther guards. Farrell is averaging 15.8 PPG, 4.9 REB/G, and 4.3 A/G while Bosco is scoring 13.8 PPG in 21 minutes per game off the bench. Kornaker is more of a distributor, averaging 4 A/G and spreads the floor well between Folger, Hilal Dahleh, and Eric McCord down low. While Folger hauls in boards in his own right, raking in 9.5 per game to nearly total an average of a double-double for himself. McCord and freshman forward Alex Sobel are the defensive specialists, grabbing 10.8 and 5.4 REB/G, respectively. The guards are going to need to continue to play lights out for the Panthers with Folger leading the way for Midd to compete in the postseason. Their early season conference match ups should provide a good indication of how this rather unpredictable teams competes against better competition.

5.) Wesleyan (7-3)

Contrary to Andrew’s (unsurprisingly) favorable preview for the Cardinals entering this season, this team has proven to be human in the early going despite their notable athleticism. They played a non-conference game against Williams and lost by 15—not such a bad result considering the prowess of the second-ranked Eph team. It actually was a poorly played game by the Cardinals, boding even better for their future games against the NESCAC’s top foes as they shot just 25% from beyond the arc. They also hauled in just 28 boards which was likely the main issue—allowing Williams to dominate on defense. Jordan Bonner, Austin Hutcherson, and Antone Walker are the big time scorers for this Wesleyan team, all averaging at least 14 PPG and represent a dangerous trio of shooters. This young team may be a bit inconsistent at times with Bonner as the only senior on the roster, but they should have a shot in some games that they are not favored in due to their athleticism and potential to score.

6.) Colby (8-2)

This young Mule team is coming out of nowhere to intimidate the other NESCAC competition in the 2018-2019 preseason. While I didn’t really expect them to compete without any seniors on the roster, they are quietly putting together wins with five players averaging double digit point in the early going. Matt Hanna (14.1 PPG, 5.7 REB/G, 3.5 A/G), Sam Jefferson (16.6 PPG, 4.0 REB/G, 40.3% 3-PT), Wallace Tucker (11.1 PPG, 3.7 REB/G, 2.0 A/G), Noah Tyson (11.8 PPG, 8.6 REB/G, 2.6 A/G), and Ronan Schwarz (11.9 PPG, 4.9 REB/G, 58.2% FG) round out a well-balanced, and deep starting five for the Mules. While it’s hard to determine the quality of their opponents, they knocked off Bowdoin pretty easily 83-70 and Bates 86-69.

7.) Trinity (7-3)

Trinity is a team much like Colby in that they lack a superstar or one player really performing above the rest of the team. Four of five starters (Kyle Padmore, Donald Jorden, Christian Porydzy, and Nick Seretta) average 10 PPG while Connor Merinder adds 8.3 PPG. Jordan and Merinder each haul in 8.1 and 6.4 REB/G, respectively and are the best rim defenders on the team. They lost to pretty badly 84-67 to 16th ranked Nichols but lost by less than five points in their other two hiccups thus far. This team still has a lot to figure out after losing key players last season, much like Middlebury and Amherst, but they seem to have a deep enough lineup so far to be dangerous and a match for many NESCAC foes.

8.) Bowdoin (6-3)

Despite a below average 6-3 record entering the break, including a loss to rival Colby College, the Polar Bears are boasting a modest four game win streak after staring the season just 2-3. While it often takes some time for younger teams to get going, I didn’t expect to see this from the rather experienced Bowdoin team. Jack Simonds, Jack Bors, Hugh O’Neil, and David Reynolds who represent a similar level of experience to the Hamilton team. In fact, I’d even go to say that similar to Hamilton, this is the year of hope and destiny for the Bowdoin team too. If there was ever a year for them to make a run at the whole thing, this is it. Now I’m by no means saying they’re as talented as Hamilton or Williams, but David Reynolds and Jack Simonds both have POY potential, making a run at the league’s scoring title, and Hugh O’Neil has DPOY potential, bringing down rebounds with the best of them for his entire career. They fall all the way down here to eighth on these first power rankings of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get hot and make a run and host a first round playoff game.

9.) Tufts (4-5)

Nobody lost more key players than Tufts did at the end of 2018. They lost starters Thomas Lapham, Everett Dayton, and, most importantly, Vinny Pace, leaving them with just Miles Bowser and team leader Eric Savage remaining. Savage, however, is the only Jumbo left in the starting lineup from last season as Bowser is no longer on the roster. Tyler Aronson and Carson Cohen are two of the new starters and are freshmen looking to make a quick impact at the college level. Both highly decorated high school players, Aronson and Cohen should improve as the season goes along but likely, as seen in their early record, will be overmatched by against some better teams and will experience up-and-down shooting nights. Rounding out the starting five are sophomores Justin Kouyoumdjian (that is a mouth full), Brennan Morris, and Luke Rogers. Savage has been a bit banged up thus far, leaving room for Cohen to make an early impact, but expect Cohen to come off the bench in games that Savage plays in. Arguably their best game of the season was in a loss to #7 MIT that went to OT early in the season. While the Jumbos might be the last ‘good’ team in these power rankings, they still have the talent to knock off any team on any day, speaking to the depth of the NESCAC.

10.) Conn College (3-5)

And then there were two. Conn and Bates seem to be far below the rest of the NESCAC competition thus far. I hope they prove me wrong, but each program is in different places and will struggle for different reasons throughout the spring. For Conn, they have their star player, David Labossiere, leading the way but they lack a solid supporting cast to propel them into the fire of the NESCAC competition. Dan Draffan is another great player for the Camels, but Jack Zimmerman, Phil Leotsakos, and Ryan Omslaer need to step up their game for Conn to work to sneak into the playoffs. With that said, however, Labossiere could make a run for the NESCAC scoring title and could take over any game as he is shooting 40% from deep and averaging nearly 20 PPG so far. Draffan scores over 16 PPG and hauls in nearly 10 boards per game and if they can figure out how to score, this team could upset better NESCAC teams on their off nights.

11.) Bates (2-7)

Bates had an underwhelming but not abysmal 2017-2018 season, but lost one of their starters in Guards Shawn Strickland. They went into the holiday break with five straight losses, two to NESCAC teams (Colby and Bowdoin) which I think clearly makes them the worst team in Maine so far. They shoot from beyond the arc at just 27.8%, make under 60% of their free throws, and only have two players in Jeff Spellman and Nick Lynch scoring in the double digits per game. Lynch and Spellman are also the only Bobcats averaging over six boards per game and it looks as if, unless there is going to be a dramatic shift in the new year, this may be a long season for Bates. Tom Coyne should return after the break in time for NESCAC play, and while it’s been rough so far, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bates make the playoffs and slowly climb up the rankings into the top eight.

Tufts University Jumbos 2019 Basketball Season Preview

Tufts University Jumbos

2017-2018 Record: 17-8 (6-4 NESCAC), lost in NESCAC Quarterfinals

2018-2019 Projected Record: 16-8 (5-5 NESCAC)

Key Losses:

G Thomas Lapham ’18 (7.0PPG, 2.3AST, 1.0STL/G)

G Everett Dayton ’18 (8.3PPG, 4.3REB/G, 44.9% FG)

G KJ Garrett ’18 (9.9PPG, 5.3REB/G, 1.2STL/G, 46.7% FG)

G/F Vincent Pace ’18 (18.3PPG, 8.3REB/G, 2.5AST/G)

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Tyler Aronson ’22

Aronson found his way into the starting lineup right out of the gate in his freshman campaign. Listed at just 6’2” and 185lbs, Aronson makes his living as a scorer despite not being the biggest guy out there. He has a terrific jump shot and his high release allows him to get into the paint to score from mid-range rather than just live behind the three-point line. His outstanding athleticism makes him a very tough matchup on both ends of the court, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see him near the league lead in steals by the end of the season. Watch out for Aronson this year because he’s already in position to lead the next wave of elite NESCAC guards.

G: Carson Cohen ’22

The second of Tufts’ dynamic duo of freshman is Carson Cohen, who has served as a bit of a workhorse through his first four contests. Cohen is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists while playing 34 minutes each game thus far. These are some great numbers, and that includes two close victories and an overtime loss against #11 nationally ranked MIT. Playing a similar style to Aronson, Cohen has great handles and will surprise you with how quickly he can get to the basket. As his 5 assists per game would indicate, he has tremendous court vision and is serving as the facilitator the Jumbos need. He is also looking like an early rookie of the year candidate with his performance so far.

G: Justin Kouyoumdjian ’21 (4.7PPG, 2.4REB/G)

Kouyoumdjian is finding a nice role as the 3^rdor 4^thscoring option in the starting lineup. His shooting numbers are modest and certainly have room for improvement given his nice shooting stroke, but he’ll contribute a few buckets when the Jumbos need it. He’ll also grab a few rebounds and dish out a few assists, acting as a sort of glue for this team. In the early going he has turned the ball over at a bit too high of a rate (4 per game) so that’s something to focus on as the season progresses. For now, the southpaw serves as a complementary scoring option who will help keep everything running smoothly on the court.

G/F: Brennan Morris ’21 (1.8PPG, 0.4AST/G, 53.9% 3PT)

Morris brings a bit of height to the starting lineup and he plays as a true sharpshooter with about as pure of a jump shot as you can find. Like the smaller guards in the lineup, he can score in a multitude of ways and helps spread the floor on offense. He is a key part of the lineup as he has the size and length to matchup with some of the bigger forwards in the league, which will be especially important against teams like Williams and Hamilton who are loaded with 6’4”-6’7” wings. Morris is a great piece to have in this lineup, and it’ll be a big year for him given that he saw very little action in his freshman season.

C: Luke Rogers ’21 (5.2PPG, 4.8REB/G, 60.5% FG, 39.5% FT)

The Massachusetts native is about as true a center as they come. Rogers is a skilled post player who is capable of having huge games (as evidenced by his 32-point outburst in the second game of the season). He’s going to be a rebound machine this year, especially since Tufts will often go with a relatively small lineup. He was in the rotation last season, but didn’t play a ton of minutes so keep an eye on his durability given that his 6’8” frame is lugging 230lbs up and down the court every night. He is really going to have to work on free throws because he shot an abysmal 39.5% from the line last year, and he’s at 41.7% through four games this year. Teams are going to take notice, so he better be staying late shooting foul shots after practice or else hack-a-Rogers could be in full effect.

Everything Else

Tufts lost a larger portion of their lineup from last season than any team in the league. Not only did they graduate 4 players who played key roles, but they also saw the departure of Vincent Pace ’18 who was a true NESCAC stud. This left them with a ton of minutes up for grabs, and only one senior on the roster. This year the Jumbos have an entirely different core filled with talented underclassmen – the only question is whether or not they can survive with so much inexperience against teams with much older lineups. Well, they’ve already begun to answer that question, plugging two freshmen into the starting five and seeing guys step up who were used in much smaller doses last year.

Patrick Racy ’20 has mostly been used off the bench in the first three games, although he started nearly every game in his sophomore season. He helps bring length to the court with his 6’6” frame, and he has already upped his rebounding totals from 3.8 per game last season to 5 per game through their first four. Eric DeBrine ’22 is another guy with size who can help the Jumbos matchup with some of the bigger teams, and he has been used as such in his first four career games. Given that Tufts starts 3 guys who are 6’2” or below, they’ll look to mix in these guys who can completely change the dynamic of the lineup with different sizes and skill sets. They also finished the 2017-2018 season tied for last in the league in blocked shots per game, so hopefully these bigger guys can get their hands on a few more shots.

Tufts will look to Will Brady to fill in important minutes off the bench

One issue that the Jumbos will look to fix from last season was their scoring inefficiency. They ended the year 3^rdin the NESCAC with 78.7 points per game, but second to last in field goal percentage (42.6%) and third to last in 3-point field goal percentage (33.1%). What this really means is that they can be scoring A LOT of points. They’ve already improved their shooting numbers early into this season, and they’ve added some guys to their lineup who can really shoot. I talked about the four guards in their starting lineup that can knock down shots, but Will Brady ’21 is another who plays a similar role and shoots a very high percentage from beyond the arc. He will help bring some firepower to an already talented offense that is seeking to increase their efficiency, especially since their defense really isn’t anything special.

Eric Savage is serving as the team captain this year, so the Jumbos are eager to get him back as soon as possible

A big hole in the early going for the Jumbos is the loss of Eric Savage ’20. He has been out thus far with a concussion but yet his Jumbos squad is a team that has looked pretty good so far given how much they lost from last year. When he is healthy again, slot him into the starting lineup and make this Tufts team much tougher to face than they are currently. Tufts is already off to a good start, and that’s a very scary sight for teams that expected a down year with all the youth in Medford.