Close to a Photo Finish: Stock Report 5/2

Our playoff picture has firmly come into focus headed into our final weekend. Following a riveting last set of games, highlighted by an incredible Tufts series win over Trinity, we have (finally!) been blessed by the scheduling gods with a terrific weekend of games to determine who will compete for a NESCAC crown. Let’s find out who’s feeling good and bad heading into the last regular season weekend.

Stock Up

Final Weekend Drama

The NESCAC baseball schedule and general competitive format has been a topic of much negative discussion around these parts, but I will give credit where credit is due. This weekend is set up to be an absolute thriller thanks to a touch of good fortune, most notably in the West. Middlebury and Amherst will square off, both at 5-4, while Williams (5-4) faces Wesleyan (4-5), with 4 teams all still in playoff contention going at it head-to-head. It’s fairly simple—the series winner of Middlebury and Amherst is headed to the postseason, that much is certain. The Williams and Wesleyan results will be a little muddier thanks to the tiebreakers. Wesleyan will be rooting for an Amherst sweep along with a sweep win of their own, in which case the 8-4 Mammoths and the 7-5 Cardinals would make it in. A Middlebury series victory could be promising for Wesleyan as well, given that they hold the tiebreaker over Amherst and Williams as well if they’re able to win at least two this weekend. A Williams series win puts them at 7-5 and into the tournament, which would be a massive achievement for this Ephs team. There are two scenarios that end in a three-team tie for second (Midd, Williams, Wesleyan OR Amherst, Williams, Wesleyan at 6-6). In the first case, the second playoff team would be decided by overall winning percentage as each team would be 3-3 against one another. The team that would go to the playoffs would be between Midd and Williams–It’d be Williams who would hold an extremely narrow advantage over the winning percentage. In the second case, Wesleyan would be in as they would have won series against both Williams and Amherst.

Bates’ Playoff Chances

I simply cannot believe the Bobcats might (and almost certainly will) pull this one off again. They have quietly put together a very nice season, even appearing in the last New England regional rankings. After sweeping Colby and receiving the good news that Tufts took two out of three from Trinity, Bates sits at 7-3 while Trinity is in the clubhouse at 8-4. The Bobcats need just one win on account of their series win versus the Bantams, and their last two games are against the 6-21-2 Bowdoin Polar Bears. After sneaking into the playoffs last year, they somehow might just do it again, barring a shocking turn of events versus their in-state rival this weekend.

JP Knight’s Clutch Gene

Are you kidding me?!? Tufts was down 6-5 in the ninth inning against Trinity in Game 2. The bases were loaded, but there were two outs. In fact, they were down to their last strike. But then OF JP Knight ’20 struck. He deposited a grand slam over the fence to give Tufts a 9-6 lead which they would hold and turn into the clinching of a NESCAC Tournament berth. It capped off a 4-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI day for Knight, who was this week’s Player of the Week and on the D3baseball.com national team of the week. Pretty damn good week if you ask me. It was perhaps a turning point for the Jumbos, who could’ve been looking pretty sticky at 7-3 heading into the final weekend. Instead it clinched their spot in the NESCAC tournament, and as we mentioned, could prove to be a dagger for Trinity.

Doug Schaffer’s Player of the Year Chances

I’ve been hesitant to talk about this as a fellow Eph, but with just three conference games left and with Williams well within striking distance to improbably make the NESCAC Tournament, it’s finally time to talk about Doug Schaffer ’19. The senior infielder started out white hot, and while the rest of the league waited for him to cool off, he simply refused to do so. He leads the league with a .455 batting average, and has 14 more RBI than anyone else with 45. The no home runs are a red flag I suppose, but does that really matter with the rest of the stats? I doubt it. Now, it would be tough to give the POY to a guy who doesn’t make the postseason, which is why this upcoming weekend series against Wesleyan is crucial. If Williams wins this series and heads to the postseason, Schaffer has my vote.

Stock Down

Morale in Hartford

There simply isn’t anything else to talk about at this stage in the game. For the second straight year it looks as if Trinity is going to inexplicably miss the NESCAC tournament. For the second straight year, you could make the case that the Bantams are the best team in the league, and they might find themselves watching at home. Last season they needed just one victory to clinch a postseason appearance in their final series at home against Bates, but they couldn’t get it done. This season they had Tufts down 6-3 to start the 9th and even down to their last strike in a game that would have clinched a playoff spot before JP Knight stepped in and put the Jumbos ahead. It was a quietly tough battle to begin with this year, especially after Trinity lost their series to Bates, but after Bates swept Colby to move to 7-3, it is seriously looking like a reality that history will repeat itself. Last year they were 7-5 and missed out thanks to some tiebreakers, and this year could feel even worse—missing out at 8-4. The Bantams will be the biggest Bowdoin fans alive this weekend, needing them to somehow find a way to take both games off Bates. If not, it happened again—somehow. For a team with this much talent who is able to do this much damage outside the NESCAC, it is really surprising that they, yet again, couldn’t close out the most important games of their season. Is this a result of a serious lack of clutch genes from the Bantams? Maybe. Is it because of poor coaching and questionably managed games? Probably. Whatever it is, something isn’t right. The question now just may be: is this irreversible damage to the confidence and psyche in Hartford?

Editor’s Note: Having said all that, however, Trinity still was ranked 3rd in the latest New England Regional Rankings, almost certainly giving them an at-large Pool C bid to the NCAA tournament. While it is highly unusual that a team that misses their conference tournament could make the NCAA tournament, the top four teams in the regional rankings always get bids to the tourney, so at least in this moment, the Bantams’ season will continue past next weekend.