Adam Lamont

Stock Report May 5

The conference regular season is officially in the books now. The playoffs are set. Every team has seen their fortunes rise and fall somewhat over the course of the season. The Stock Report was meant to capture some of that in showing who was playing well and who was struggling. This will be the final one of the 2014 baseball season and feel free to look back through the other Stock Reports for a snapshot of how things looked every Monday of the season.

Stock Up

1. Connor McDavitt ’15 Centerfielder (Tufts) – Bates stole the first game of the doubleheader on Saturday, scoring two runs in the bottom of the seventh and one in the eighth to walk off with the win, but Tufts held them off in game two to secure hosting rights for the NESCAC championship. McDavitt had a huge role in that game from the get-go. He singled to lead off the game before stealing second as Matt Moser ’16 struck out for the second out of the inning. A Max Freccia ’14 single brought McDavitt home for the first run of the game. In the second inning, McDavitt struck again, singling home Nick Barker ’15 to extend Tufts early lead to three runs. McDavitt finished the day with two hits in what was his fourth straight mult-hit game. He has been superb at the top of the lineup getting on base at a .467 clip. Much of that comes from his 26 walks, four more than anyone else in the NESCAC. He also has twelve stolen bases, but has only five since April 12, while been caught four times in that span. The Tufts bats will come to the forefront this weekend and will face a tough matchup with whomever Amherst throws out in the first game.

2. Jed Robinson ’16 Starting Pitcher (Trinity) – Trinity dropped off the radar pretty early on by not winning any of their conference series. They lacked the starting pitching depth or power hitting to win enough games to make some serious noise, but they played better down the stretch winning seven in a row before falling to Wesleyan in their season finale. We wrote a few weeks ago about the talent already on the Trinity roster saying “the final weeks of the season will help the coaching staff identify those potential contributors.” Robinson fits that profile perfectly. He struggled in a few early season starts and ended up not starting a game in conference play. He did get the win in Trinity’s extra inning victory over Tufts, pitching 1.1 scoreless innings. After that he re-entered the rotation, winning his final three starts. His best performance came Saturday against Wesleyan when he held the Cardinals to two runs over seven innings in Trinity’s 4-2 win. Robinson was one of several silver linings to emerge down the stretch for the Bantams as they look to quickly get back to the top of the league next season.

3. Bates (19-15, 7-5) – They didn’t quite manage to pull off the shocking feat of sweeping Tufts and stealing NESCAC hosting rights, but they came very darn close. Down 4-2 in the second game on Saturday, Bates got the first two runners on in the sixth before stranding them and then had two runners on in the seventh with one out and their two best batters coming up. Unfortunately, neither Kevin Davis ’14 or Griff Tewksbury ’14 was able to deliver a big hit, but consider how Bates started the season with six straight losses and you see how improbable the situation was. One of the major reasons for that poor performance was their awful defense which had 25 errors through seven games. In their next 27 games Bates had only 29 errors. Even given how they have been trending upward in the last few weeks, their performance against Tufts surprised a lot of people around the league. The consensus is that Tufts, Amherst, and Wesleyan have separated themselves, but Bates is closing fast on that trio heading into the playoffs.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury Hitting – Almost anyway you slice it, this was the worst hitting team in the NESCAC. Not to say that the hitting was the only reason why Middlebury struggled, because their pitching wasn’t much better, but it at least offered some decent performances. The only bright spot in the lineup was senior leadoff hitter Alex Kelly ’14. As soon as Dylan Sinnickson ’15 and Hunter Merryman ’15 announced that they weren’t going to be playing baseball, we knew the lineup was going to struggle, but Kelly was left almost without any support. Kelly had 14 more total bases and 11 more runs than anyone else on the Panthers along with the highest batting average and slugging percentage. With Kelly graduating, players who flashed promise like Max Araya ’16 and Jason Lock ’17 will have to become much more consistent in order for Middlebury to improve.

2. Andrew Vandini ’16 Infielder (Amherst) – In the weekend preview for April 18 we highlighted Vandini as an under appreciated cog of the Amherst offense. Since then he has not had multiple hits in any of his last twelve games. In fact that very weekend he went 1-15 from the leadoff spot. That prompted him to move from first to the two hole where he continued to struggle. He has been dropped down to near the end of the lineup in what has been part of a reshuffling of the Amherst offense as a whole. His season performance is still very respectable considering he has a .412 OBP, but he is representative of a perceptible drop in Amherst’s play in the last few weekends of conference play. They played well this weekend winning all four games, but both games against Colby were close fought battles. In the second game a Connor Gunn ’16 single scored two to give Amherst the walk-off 4-3 win. Vandini and the rest of the Jeffs have to pick it up just a little bit to repeat last years run.

3. Kyle Slinger ’15 Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – Given how dominant Slinger was pitching for most of the season, it isn’t a surprise that teams have started to hit him just a little bit. It started with Bowdoin tagging him for two runs in seven innings. That might not seem like cause for concern, but it was the most anyone had hit against him in weeks. The downward trend worsened when he let up three runs and eight hits against Bates. Those aren’t bad stats, but he only lasted five innings, forcing the Tufts bullpen to throw four innings. Tom Ryan ’15 and Mike Moser ’16 weren’t up for the task as they let up the lead. It is clear that Slinger has to be better this weekend for Tufts to win it all. A great long start by him will have the domino effect of causing the rest of the pitching staff to be fully rested for just a few games.

Power Rankings May 1

Going to keep the Power Rankings a little bit shorter this week before doing a big blowout one next time. It will be special I promise. In the mean time feast your eyes on these rankings and consider them a bit of a sampler before the main course next week.

1. Tufts (27-4, 8-2)- At first I was going to put Wesleyan here before looking at the team wide stats. Tufts’ pitching has separated themselves just a little bit from the other pitching staffs down the stretch, and its 2.58 ERA is .75 runs better than Bowdoin’s second place mark. Tufts has a great video of the Tufts staff discussing what has made them so successful. The offense is not quite as dominant, but has still scored 21 more runs than anybody else in the NESCAC. The secret to their success has been their patience. They rank as a team only fourth in the NESCAC in batting average, but their .396 OBP is the best in the league. Also, a .396 OBP is absurdly high for a full season.

2. Wesleyan (23-8, 10-2)- Did someone on Wesleyan read the Power Rankings last week? No way they printed it out and circled the fact that I put them third right? There isn’t a lot of stuff out there that could be used as bulletin board material in the NESCAC, so let me just have my moment and imagine that they used my writing as inspiration for their series win over Amherst. Like I said above, I almost put them number one, but think that Tufts’ body of work is too deserving not to put them first. One player we haven’t given enough credit to this season has been second baseman Andrew Yin ’15. He has gotten on-base more than any other player in the NESCAC.

3. Amherst (23-7, 9-3)- Yes, it was a disappointing weekend for Amherst, but my impression of them hasn’t changed very much. Drawing Tufts for the first game of the double elimination tournament is tough, but Bowdoin showed last week that Tufts’ Kyle Slinger ’15 is beatable. They have a bevy of pitchers to throw at teams this weekend. They won the tournament last year as the number two West seed without losing a game so they have been in this situation before.

4. Bates (18-14, 6-4)- Their remaining two games against Tufts are much more important in terms of confidence for the Bobcats than the Jumbos. Bates lost the first game of conference season to Tufts when Slinger threw a gem against them, but they were in the game the whole time. Both managers will have to balance keeping their players in rhythm and not giving away too much in case of a potential rematch in two weekends. While Bates is a distant fourth behind the big three, Brad Reynolds ’14 will give them a great chance to win at least one game, and after that the team has been playing well enough to make a run.

5. Williams (10-15, 6-5)- The overall record is not very good in large part because of the depth of Williams pitching, but this was still the best team not to make the playoffs. They were doomed by going 1-5 against the tandem of Amherst and Wesleyan, and it would have been interesting to see how they would have done in the East given how up for grabs the second spot was. Their hitting didn’t perform quite as well in conference play, but some drop off was to be expected.

6. Colby (15-13, 5-7)- Colby gains this spot by virtue of beating Bowdoin in their head to head matchup. No team took a bigger step forward than Colby this season in big part because they had great improvement by returning players. Back in March they looked to be at best a spoiler with enough talent to steal a game from anybody, but their 4-2 conference start was for real. They return a lot of players next season as well. Their offense will need to get contributions for players up and down the lineup, but they aren’t far away.

7. Bowdoin (17-14-1, 5-7)- This is a disappointing finish for Bowdoin given their preseason expectation, but in the end their weaknesses just couldn’t be overcome. Still a lot of positives to take away with the biggest one being all the players who stepped up in bigger than expected roles. All of those players will be back next season in what is sure to be a team hungry to get back to the playoffs in a crowded East.

8. Trinity (15-16, 4-8)- 2014 was a terrible season by Trinity’s high standards, but their series against Tufts showed that there are still plenty of players in Hartford. It felt like Trinity lost more close games than anyone else. Everyone in the lineup will be back as well. It is way too early to make any predictions about the East next year, but it will be just as unpredictable next season. Don’t be shocked if the Bantams bring in a couple of hard throwing freshman to strengthen the rotation.

9. Hamilton (9-14, 2-9)- To be honest, Hamilton really hasn’t done much to hold onto this spot in recent weeks because their offense has completely collapsed. Their pitching staff has kept them in games, but there just isn’t enough hitting. The improvement of twins Chris and Kenny Collins ’17 does represent a ray of hope that next season the Continentals will be a more complete team capable of cashing in on the early promise they showed on their Florida trip.

10. Middlebury (4-21, 2-10)- The Panthers seemed to building a little momentum a few weeks ago after they beat Hamilton twice and played Amherst very tight for a couple games, but that enthusiasm has disappeared in the middle of a nine game losing streak. Their remaining four games are two doubleheaders against Tufts and Bowdoin so those will be difficult games as well. If they win some of them then they recapture some of those good vibes heading into the summer.

The Turning Points

My favorite analogy to how a baseball season plays out is a long Dickensian novel with a constantly rotating cast of characters. Some players are critical to the development of the story while others stay hidden in the background most of the time. The NESCAC season is more like a novella when compared to the monstrosity that is the 162 MLB game season, but the idea still holds. Crunched into just more than two months (besides Bates who played a very early spring trip), the season is so compact with most teams playing about four games a week for most of March and April. As the season goes on themes begin to emerge. A team’s strengths and weaknesses become apparent, but certain things also change. A few games and moments stick out when thinking about how we got from the cold depths of winter to where we are now, the playoffs. Below are five that we think were formative moments in the season.

But first, a disclaimer. While the games listed below coincided with a change in fortunes for these teams, they are in no way evidence of the hot-hand myth. These are moments that we believe one could point to and say either that they had a major impact on the postseason or that a team played much better after this game, but the result of one game is not the cause of an extended run of success.

March 21 in Tucson, Arizona: Gustavus Adolphus 24 – Wesleyan 0

The 24-run defeat was the worst margin suffered by any NESCAC team this season, and knowing what we do now the result is even more shocking. Wesleyan is arguably the best team in the NESCAC while Gustavus Adolphus, from Minnesota, has gone 4-18 since that game. After the result Wesleyan stood at 8-5 and looked to be a team that was going to struggle in NESCAC play because their pitching was so bad. The best pitcher to that date had been Peter Rantz ’16 who started this very game and got tagged for five runs in 2.1 innings. That helped prompt a change in the rotation with Gavin Pittore ’16 becoming the number three in stead of Rantz. Since that game the Wesleyan pitching has improved leaps and bounds to the point where the staff out-dueled Amherst this weekend. This is also a case of the final scoring making things look even worse. Nobody who pitched in that game should see meaningful innings in the playoffs. Regardless, Wesleyan clearly turned it around after this game when they promptly went on a 12-game winning streak.

2. March 29 in Medford, Massachusetts: Tufts 2 – Bates 0

Way back on March 29, Tufts and Bates opened up conference play in a game moved to Massachusetts because of the weather. This game is not significant for Tufts, though we did see Kyle Slinger ’15 show off how dominant he would be in conference when he struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings. Instead, the real meaning came in the pitching performance of Bates’ Brad Reynolds ’14. The big lefty had struggled mightily to begin the season in part because of a shaky defense. Yes, he took the loss by allowing two earned runs, but both of those runs came in the first inning. He shut down Tufts for the next six innings and then carried that into next week when he struck out 10 Bowdoin hitters in a Bates rout. Reynolds has turned into a bona fide ace winning his two other conference starts as well. His magnum opus came last Friday when he went all nine innings without allowing one run and striking out 12. Without Reynolds, Bates’ pitching would not have sniffed the playoffs, but he wasn’t that guy until that start against Tufts.

3. April 11 Middletown, Connecticut: Wesleyan 4 – Williams 1

Williams came into the weekend at 4-2 in the NESCAC after losing their previous series to Amherst, and Wesleyan was 3-0. This was the first game of the weekend, and Williams entered the bottom of the seventh with a 1-0 lead. Nobody had expected these two teams to be locked in a low-scoring battle, but the pitching by both teams was excellent. Williams’ Steve Marino ’14 allowed hits to Donnie Cimino ’15 and Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 before a sacrifice bunt moved both into scoring position. After an error allowed the tying run to score and runners to be on the corners, Robby Harbison ’17 delivered a huge double to right field to score both runners and break the 1-1 tie. Williams couldn’t get anything going in the eighth or ninth and just like that they faced must win games the next two games. The next two games weren’t nearly as close, and so by the end of April 12 it was already apparent that Amherst and Wesleyan would be the two teams coming out of the West.

4. April 12 Brunswick, Maine: Colby 4 – Bowdoin 2

The teams split the first two games of the series so that entering the second game of the doubleheader Colby was 3-2 and Bowdoin was 4-4 in the NESCAC. The game was scoreless going into the top of the six because of great pitching by Greg Ladd ’15 for Colby and Jay Loughlin ’14 for Bowdoin. With the heart of Colby’s order coming up in the sixth, Bowdoin Manager Mike Connolly decided to turn to his left-hander Christian Martin ’14. After a fantastic 2013, Martin had pitched sparingly so far because of injury. The inning got off to a terrible start for him when he hit Jason Buco ’14. Three batters later the bases were loaded with one out and Daniel Csaplar ’16 at the plate. Csaplar didn’t shrink from the pressure, hitting a two-run double. The next batter, Jack Galvin ’14, hit a two-run single to chase Martin and put the game out of reach. The loss basically knocked Bowdoin out of the East race and momentarily elevated Colby to tied for first in the East at 4-2.

5. April 27 Waterville, Maine: Bates 6 – Colby 2

One of the final games in the NESCAC season decided the final playoff spot. This was a must win for Colby (started the game at 5-6) while conceivably Bates (started the game at 5-4) could have lost and then won their final two games against Tufts. The Bobcats clearly did not want to be in that situation, and they made sure it didn’t happen, led by clutch pitching from Chris Fusco ’14. Colby stranding 11 runners over the course of the game ultimately doomed them. The Bates offense came from a lot of different spots in the lineup with Sam Warren ’16 leading the way with three hits. A lot of players have stepped up to take the load off of the senior duo of Kevin Davis ’14 and Griffin Tewksbury ’14. Those two carried the team for much of the season, but near the end other Bates players came through to make the difference.

Stock Report April 29

We recapped the action of what went down this weekend last night in our roundup. Now it is time to look at the people who were the biggest movers this weekend. For the playoffs, it’s often better to be hot than good, so take that to heart as teams gear up for the playoffs which are still two weekends away.

Stock Up:

1. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 – First Baseman (Wesleyan) – Goodwin-Boyd has been absolutely mashing since conference play got started. He didn’t let up this weekend hitting a huge home run in the first game against Amherst before topping that by hitting another one in the next game that was the only damage Wesleyan could do against Amherst’s John Cook ’15. That was enough, though, as great pitching on both teams led to a 1-1 tie entering the bottom of the ninth. Wesleyan pushed across a run to walk-off with the win, they’re second in conference play, and the West division title. Goodwin-Boyd owns a tidy .566 slugging percentage which goes a long way towards explaining how he has a league-leading 32 RBIs. Wesleyan was the first team that really got to Amherst’s pitching even though Amherst still pitched very well overall. Winning the division is huge for the Cardinals because Wesleyan should get to avoid Tufts and instead get a much weaker (though hot) Bates.

2. Christian Sbily ’14 – Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – We have dedicated most of our virtual ink to talking about Tufts’ top two of Kyle Slinger ’15 and Tim Superko ’17, but the number three has been so good that he merits equal credit for Tufts’ success. Like so many others, Sbily has been at his best in recent weeks. He shut out Colby for seven innings last week and yesterday he scattered five hits for the complete game shutout. Sbily isn’t the same type of power pitcher the other two are, but he goes deep into games because he is able to have consistently low pitch counts. He is a huge advantage for Tufts because while many NESCAC teams have aces comparable to Slinger and Superko, Sbily is almost unmatched as a third starter. Sbily could be the difference-maker for Tufts in the NESCAC Championship.

3. Thomas Murphy ’15 and Steve Marino ’14 – Starting Pitchers (Williams) – This has not been a banner season for the Williams pitching staff, but this duo really came through yesterday as Williams swept Hamilton. Murphy went all seven innings to win a duel between him and Jjay Lane ’15. Williams pushed across the winning run in the bottom of the seventh to come away with the victory. Marino was just as good going all nine innings, striking out nine, and limiting Hamilton to three earned runs. For Marino, it was an especially high note in his final conference game. Williams wasn’t good enough to hang with the big boys, but if they pitch this well consistently they will have more than a fighter’s chance next year.

4. Chris Fusco ’14 – Starting Pitcher (Bates) – We saw a lot of great pitching performances this weekend, and the love we’ve been doling out in this section is well-deserved. Fusco didn’t have a great day, but he came through to toss 5.2 innings of two-run ball in the deciding game of the Bates-Colby series. Fusco has a tendency to give up homers (five on the season), and Jason Buco ’15 hit another one against him yesterday, but Fusco was very good besides that. Bates had already gotten a PHENOMENAL start by Brad Reynolds ’14, but that alone wasn’t going to be enough. Bates didn’t look like a playoff team way back in February when they were making errors all over the place, but their best players have carried them this far. In a short series they are dangerous.

Stock Down:

1. Ryder Arsenault ’17 – Center Fielder (Colby) – Arsenault has been a enormous part of Colby’s surprise run in the East, but he, like the team, ran out of steam at the end. In the first game Arsenault struck out three times, contributing to the 12 Colby strikouts on the day. Yesterday he saw only one plate appearance, pinch hitting at the end of the third game. We don’t know if his benching was purely performance-related or if he has some type of injury that hindered his play, but the Colby offense really sputtered this weekend. Getting shut down by Bates’ ace Reynolds wasn’t a huge surprise, but they barely got anything going the other two games as well. Arsenault is one of many talented players coming back next year for Colby.

2. Erik Jacobsen ’15 Starting Pitcher/Infielder (Bowdoin) – Bowdoin knew going into the weekend that they needed to sweep Tufts to have a chance at the postseason. The Polar Bears were the first team to give Kyle Slinger ’15 issues as they won the first game of the series. Jacobsen has been solid all season, but Tufts jumped on him early and he didn’t make it out of the third inning in Game Two. The Bowdoin bullpen limited the damage, but the Tufts pitching is too good to make up an early deficit. An offense that has seen some players step up, but other more established ones struggle, couldn’t muster much of a comeback in the eventual 5-1 loss. Understandably after that disappointment, Bowdoin didn’t muster much of a challenge in the third game, losing 14-0.

Weekend Roundup

The final full weekend of NESCAC play was disrupted by the weather, but ultimately it was able to answer all of the questions that we had entering Friday. Wesleyan showed they are the best in the West while Bates continued their strong play to clinch the final playoff spot. The stock report will be up tomorrow morning, but for now here is a quick look around the league.

After a win in the first game of the series behind another great start by Brad Reynolds ’14, Bates dropped the middle game to Colby before Chris Fusco ’14 came up huge on the mound. His start and Sam Warren’s ’16 home run were the difference in the 6-2 victory that clinched a playoff berth for Bates. It is the first ever berth for the Bobcats.

In the other East Division series, Tufts dropped the first game before sweeping the Sunday doubleheader against Bowdoin. As usual, great pitching performances by Christian Sbily ’15 and Tim Superko ’17 were the difference along with the offense going off in the second game. With the losses, Bowdoin drops out of the playoff race.

Out west Williams and Hamilton played an enjoyable weekend series without any playoff implications. Williams swept the doubleheader today as their pitching looked as good as it has all season. Williams now sits at 6-5 and will look to finish above .500 in conference when the teams meet a final time on May 9.

(Courtesy of Williams Sports Information)

And then in the most anticipated matchup, Wesleyan jumped all over Amherst winning the first two games of the series to clinch the West title. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 was the star for the offense while the Wesleyan pitching completed their turnaround by shutting down the vaunted Jeffs offense. The teams could meet again next weekend as both teams had already sewn up playoff spots.

With the playoffs set you can read up on the Championship weekend schedule here. Congrats to Tufts, Bates, Wesleyan, and Amherst for making the playoffs, and keep coming back this week for the best preview of the upcoming action.

Power Rankings

As always, all picks are made by a committee of one. If you have any complaints about where a certain team is then please feel free to comment. And no I did not put certain teams purposefully low in order to get you angry.

1. Amherst (21-5, 7-1) – They don’t have the best record in the conference, or even their own division, but no team is as complete or playing as good baseball as Amherst. While Tufts has better top-end talent in the pitching department, Amherst has the deepest pitching of anyone. And while Amherst is third in the league in runs scored, the difference between them, Wesleyan and Tufts is minimal. Of course Amherst could prove me completely wrong if they don’t show up against Wesleyan. One way in which that could happen during this weekend’s critical West series is if Amherst’s defense lets down its talented staff. While Taiki Kasuga ’14 is usually great up the middle, the Jeffs’ infield defense combined for four errors last weekend against a Middlebury team that did not hit the ball on the ground too often, striking out 19 times over the course of three games, and centerfielder Alex Hero ’14 had an ugly error on a line drive right at him, the product of a lapse in concentration. On the season, Amherst is tied for the fewest errors in the NESCAC, but one miscue can decide a game between two very talented teams.

2. Tufts (25-2, 6-1) – I predicted earlier in the year that Tufts would finish with less than eight wins. With only seven regular season games left that looks pretty good given they can lose a maximum of five games between the NESCAC and NCAA tournament (if they make it). We have talked at length about how good their pitching, but the concerns about their hitting are very real. Even though they roughed up Scott Goldberg ’15, the other Colby starters gave the Jumbos a tough time. At some point the time will come when the offense needs to pick up the staff, but will the bats be ready?

3. Wesleyan (21-6, 8-1) – Considering that they were the last team undefeated in conference and still hold the best record, Wesleyan fans are sure to take this ranking as disrespect. Know that the difference between the top three is razor thin. In a three game series I would not be surprised to see Wesleyan beat Tufts or Amherst, but I just have more questions about Wesleyan than I do the other teams. I am not sure if their pitching is going to hold up down the stretch or if their hitting is really as good as it seems given how they have struggeld at times in conference. This is the case of a team being great at many things, but not the best at any of them.

4. Bates (14-11, 4-3) – The gap between Wesleyan and Bates is big enough for an aircraft carrier to pass through. I almost left fourth place empty to make my point clear, but Bates has done enough in recent weeks to justify this spot. I don’t think they have a chance come playoffs, but I like them this weekend against Colby. Their senior class has been playing incredible, picking up the slack for a team that has otherwise underperformed preseason expectations.

5. Colby (14-9. 4-5) – Just a really tough weekend for Colby against Tufts. It was rough being swept, but losing two one run games is particularly heartbreaking. Now Colby falls right back into the mire in the middle of the East. Of course, if they win the series this weekend against Bates they make the playoffs, unless Bowdoin somehow sweeps Tufts, because Colby would own the tiebreaker against both Bates and Bowdoin.

6. Bowdoin (16-11-1, 4-5) – Most likely Bowdoin will finish the season without making the NESCAC tournament in what is a disappointing, albeit defensible, season. I say defensible because of all the injuries that occurred to the pitching staff. A lot of younger players stepped up, but it looks like it won’t be enough. You can count on Bowdoin fighting tooth and nail every pitch this weekend though.

7. Williams (8-13, 4-5) – The pitching just hasn’t been there for Williams all season to be competitive in the West. Their team-wide 7.67 ERA is easily the worst in the NESCAC. The offense has been very, very good for most of the season, but was not quite as good when it really mattered against Wesleyan and Amherst. They still have a chance to finish above .500 if they sweep Hamilton, which would be a great finish for the Williams seniors who have had long successful individual careers.

8. Trinity (11-16, 4-8) – Trinity is the beginning of the bottom tier of the NESCAC (who would have guessed back in March that we’d be saying that now?), but the bottom three teams are much closer than they have been in years past. Trinity has shown that they are not far away from returning to the top of the league next season. They have lost a ton of close games in conference and are just one or two impact players away. Those players are most likely already on the roster, and the final weeks of the season will help the coaching staff identify those potential contributors.

9. Hamilton (2-6, 9-11) – Hamilton holds onto the ninth spot by virtue of handing Wesleyan their first conference loss in a comfortable 7-1 win. They showed they don’t have the depth to stay with the top teams, but they have a nice young core that is going to be coming back. A strong finish against Williams will move them up the rankings, but they could finish in the cellar because of how the last place team has been playing recently.

10. Middlebury (4-15, 2-10) – It pains me to put Middlebury last because they have been playing better than that in the last few weeks, but they haven’t garnered enough victories to justify moving them out of this spot. If they had stolen one from Amherst then they would have moved up. The good news is that the team is playing better and better and getting plenty of improvement from its young players. The pitching and infield defense have really been transformed since the team returned from Arizona, but the bats have yet to follow suit. Nevertheless, the future is looking a lot better than it was just three weeks ago.

Stock Report April 21

The playoff picture is beginning to solidify in both Divisions. In the West, Wesleyan and Amherst know that they will be playing tournament baseball this May, and the regular season West crown will be decided this weekend when Amherst travels to Middletown, CT. As for the East, the Jumbos remain on top, though with five games still to play in conference a slump would drop Tufts from the number one seed. Everyone but Trinity is still afloat on the East side of the ledger. We have one full weekend of NESCAC play remaining, and here we discuss who’s hot and cold heading into the final week of conference play.

Stock Up

1. Bates (13-11, 4-3) – No team had a better weekend than the Bobcats did. They took two out of three against Trinity to take care of business, but more importantly saw Colby lose three tight games to Tufts. Bates cruised in game one behind another great start from Brad Reynolds ’14, and won game two by mashing their way to 12 runs. Griffin Tewksbury ’14 hit his conference leading fifth homer of the season as well. The Mules and Bobcats will meet next weekend in a series that should finally decide who will get the second spot in the East. I say “should” because Bowdoin could surprise Tufts and win multiple games to give them a chance. Bates also has two games still to play against Tufts which have been rescheduled to May 3. This has the potential to be a huge help to Bates because Tufts will most likely have nothing to play for. They could rest a bunch of their regulars, or at least not play them the entire game. Even if they ended up losing both games to Tufts, Bates can all but assure a playoff spot if they win two games against Colby. 6-6 might be all it takes to make it in the East.

2. Nick Cooney ’15 Starting Pitcher (Wesleyan) – Hamilton had a hard time figuring out the junior southpaw as Cooney had 12 strikeouts on the way to his fifth win of the season. Last week he won NESCAC Pitcher of the Week, and his performance this week was just as impresive. He has put an uneven start behind him in conference play with three great starts against Middlebury, Williams and Wesleyan. The in-season improvement by the entire staff has been the big difference in the Cardinals’ play in conference. Cooney has emerged as an ace and workhorse by leading the conference in innings pitched this season.

3. John Cook ’15 Starting Pitcher (Amherst) – We admit that we wrote Cook off a little bit when he let up 11 runs to Southern Maine in the beginning of the year. Since then the junior has rebounded in a big way, but he saved his best for last weekend. Middlebury was keeping Amherst on the ropes with a great pitching performance by Eric Truss ’15, but Cook matched him every step of the way, holding Middlebury to one run as the game went to extras. After a Tyler Jacobs ’15 homer put the Jeffs up by one in the tenth inning, coach Brian Hamm showed his confidence in his pitcher by sending Cook back out to start the bottom of the tenth. Cook calmly delivered, going three up three down. Considering Cook allowed 11 runs in one game, his 2.83 ERA is almost a miracle, and a testament to his recent dominance.

Alex Kelly '14 was among the few bright spots for Middlebury against the Amherst staff, going 6-13 in his last NESCAC series atop the Panthers' lineup. Courtesy of Rachel Frank — Alex Kelly ’14 was among the few bright spots for Middlebury against the Amherst staff, going 6-13 in his last NESCAC series atop the Panthers’ lineup.
Courtesy of Rachel Frank

Stock Down

1. Colby Offense – First we should give credit to Soren Hanson ’16 and Greg Ladd ’15 for stepping up big time and giving the Mules a chance to win the last two games of the series after Tufts managed to rough up ace Scott Goldberg ’15 in the first game. The offense, however, could not get anything going which is why the weekend ended without any victories for Colby. Yes, Tufts has some of the best pitching in the league, but Colby missed two golden opportunities to grab a game. Their best chance was in the top of the sixth in the second game when a double left runners on second and third with one out. On a groundball to second Jason Buco ’15 was thrown out at home trying to score the go-ahead run, and a Tyler Starks ’16 strikeout ended the inning with two runners still on base. The offense needs to regroup before the weekend for Colby to reach the playoffs.
Check out this amazing catch by catcher Nick Cutsumpas ’14 that helped the Jumbos sweep the Mules.

2. Hamilton’s Supporting Cast – Again, we don’t intend to single out a certain player on Hamilton for their poor play, but we draw attention to this in order to shed light on Joe Jensen’s ’15 play. Over the weekend Jensen was his usual havoc-wreaking self with five stolen bases in three games. Hamilton has faded in conference play after we highlighted them as a potential spoiler in the West, but it hasn’t been because of Jensen. He now sits at 18 stolen bases and a .512 OBP on the season. With nine games remaining he has a chance to match the 29 he had in 2013. The problem is that he just hasn’t gotten any backup from his teammates. He has ten more hits than anyone else on the team, and Hamilton has nobody in the middle of the lineup hitting for extra bases that would move Jensen quickly around the bases.

3. Harry Ridge ’16 Starting Pitcher (Bowdoin) – Since he started conference play with a gem against Trinity, Ridge has struggled to be the number one starter Bowdoin needed him to be because of the injuries to Henry Van Zant ’15 and Christian Martin ’14. Against Bates and Colby, Ridge couldn’t manage more than three innings in each game, and while he pitched six innings against Williams, he allowed five runs (three earned). His ERA sits at a respectable 3.00, and it is true, like we wrote last week, that his defense has let him down. Still, whether it is fair or not, Bowdoin needed him to be more than that in order to contend. His season is sadly reminiscent of last year when he went through similar stretches of uneven pitching. All that being said, don’t count him out to have a rebound this weekend as Bowdoin prepares for their last stand against Tufts.
You can catch the highlights of Saturday’s Williams-Bowdoin doubleheader here, courtesy of Bowdoin athletics:

Friday Roundup

Really quick whip around the NESCAC to get you caught up on the action this afternoon. Please follow the links for full recaps and stats for games.

Kyle Slinger ’15 proved once again how dominant he is with eight innings of one run ball. Th offense got rolling as the game went on led by shortstop Matt Moser ’16. Tufts dominated in Game One against Colby in the pivotal East Division series.

In the West Wesleyan continued their strong play winning comfortably 10-4 over Hamilton. Nick Cooney ’15 had another great start, and Robby Harbison ’17 went yard twice. The Hamilton website has a complete recap.

Trinity’s defense let down their pitching with seven errors against Bates. The Bobcats capitalized scoring nine runs in the game. Brad Reynolds ’14 got his fourth win of the season as Bates moved to 3-2 in the NESCAC.

Amherst sweated out two wins against a Middlebury team that has seen their pitching and defense go through an enormous mid-season improvement. Dylan Driscoll ’14 went seven scoreless innings, but that wasn’t even the most impressive pitching performance of the day. John Cook went TEN innings in the second game. Amherst won in extras 2-1 on a Tyler Jacobs ’15 homer. No recap is available, but here are the stats and play by play.

In non-conference play, Bowdoin hung with D3 power Southern Maine before succumbing 5-3. Henry Van Zant ’15 had his longest outing of the season throwing five innings.

The Weekend Preview April 18

Two weekends of conference play remain, and a full weekend of games promises to sort the conference out further. In the West, it’s the calm before the storm of Wesleyan vs. Amherst next weekend. The East promises further clearing of the cluttered standings. Colby looks to prove it’s for real against Tufts while Bates hopes to start a late season run against Trinity. It promises to be another great weekend.

Marquee Matchup: Tufts (20-2, 3-1) vs Colby (13-6, 4-2)

Not many people expected this to be a matchup of the two top teams in the East at the start of the season, but Colby showed its hot start was for real when they went to Brunswick and took two out three. Meanwhile, Tufts showed its first signs of weakness against a Trinity team that came out inspired to beat them. Colby isn’t going to surprise Tufts like they might have if they played earlier in the season. The winner of this weekend is almost assured of hosting the NESCAC championships so both teams are sure to give everything they have.

Expect every game in this series to be a low scoring affair given the quality of pitching both teams possess. Nobody has a better trump card than Tufts does in Kyle Slinger ’15, and Tim Superko ’17 is no slouch either. The Friday matchup of Goldberg vs. Slinger is the best pitching matchup of the season, bar none. The big righty, Goldberg, has come into his own this season while Slinger has taken his game to another level. The rest of a surging Colby staff will look to continue their success. Soren Hanson ’16 got the loss against Bowdoin despite striking out ten, and Greg Ladd ’15 has been spectacular locating pitches and forcing weak contact.

Both teams have questions of depth behind their top starters. What cost the Jumbos against Trinity was their bullpen allowing seven runs in the first game of the doubleheader. While Tufts has a ton of talent, there are real questions on how deep their pitching staff is. Last year, Andrew David ’16 had a stellar season and took home one NESCAC Pitcher of the Week award, but he has pitched sparingly in the last couple of weeks. Matt Moser ’16 and Tom Ryan ’15 are good pitchers, but Moser has only pitched seven innings and Ryan gave up the losing run against Trinity. Superko never goes late in games, and if Slinger struggles for the first time this year then the bullpen will be stretched. Tufts has seen top relievers Lucas Geoghegan ’14 and Dakota Rabbitt ’14 struggle in recent weeks as well. They don’t usually get the headlines, but bullpens are vital in close games. As Lee Corso famously says about it ‘coming down to special teams!,’ the same is true for the bullpen.

On the offensive side Colby needs its stars Jason Buco ’15 and Kevin Galvin ’14 to come up with big hits. Ryder Arsenault ’17 has to continue getting on-base in front of them at a torrid pace as well. After that there is a pretty big drop off in production. This has forced Hanson to become a two way player with great results in limited at-bats so far. His .448 AVG and .500 OBP are tops for the Mules. Tufts has a more balanced attack with six players boasting an OBP north of .400 and at least 50 plate appearances. Another good measure of their depth is that six different players have hit homers, though nobody has more than one. Despite all that fire power Colby has a decent chance at slowing down the Tufts offense. In four conference games the Jumbos have yet to bust out averaging 4.25 runs per game.

We don’t usually make predictions because the NESCAC can be so unpredictable, but expect Tufts to win two of three. Slinger is too dominant to be beat, but after that it is a tossup in the other two games. Trinity proved Tufts is just another NESCAC team despite their gaudy record, but the Jumbos will still finish at the top of the East.

Three to Watch

1. Andrew Vandini ’16 Third Baseman (Amherst) – We gave Amherst a lot of love in our Mid-season Awards earlier this week, but Vandini didn’t get a lot of ink, besides an Honorable Mention for Most Improved. In general, the sophomore has flown under the radar overshadowed by his ultra-talented classmate Mike Odenwaelder ’16 and the stellar Amherst pitching, but Vandini is the engine at the top of the Amherst offense. He isn’t flashy with only one extra-base hit and three stolen bases, but his .471 OBP makes it pretty clear why he bats lead-off. He has more walks (11) than strikeouts (10) and is tied for fourth in the league for hits. His defense has also been good with only three errors at a difficult position. Vandini and Taiki Kasuga ’14 play great defense on the left side of the infield are a nasty duo at the top of the lineup that leaves opposing pitchers worn out when they get to the middle of the Amherst lineup.

2. Nate Pajka ’15 Outfielder (Bates) – The Bates offense has been a mess besides the stellar pair of Griffin Tewksbury ’14 and Kevin Davis ’14. While ideally an on-base machine would emerge in front of them, it doesn’t look like that guy is currently on the Bates roster. Pajka is instead a guy with a lot of power (three homers) but a below average batting average (.274). He had a good weekend against Bowdoin with two multi-hit games, and he will look to continue that hitting as Bates returns to conference play. Bates will have a difficult time with a still dangerous Trinity team, but they need a big weekend since they still have five games remaining against Tufts and Colby. If Pajka becomes a little more consistent, Bates will have a threesome of mashers in the lineup to give teams trouble.

3. Sam Goodwin-Boyd ’15 First Baseman (Wesleyan) – Your NESCAC RBI leader with 24 is none other than the junior from Florence, Massachusetts. His OBP of .396 and SLG% of .487 don’t jump out at you, but Goodwin-Boyd has reason for so many RBIs besides bountiful opportunities to accrue them. Eleven of his hits have gone for extra bases meaning runners on-base are able to advance multiple bases. The Cardinals offense was its usual self one weekend after they struggled to score against Middlebury. They can’t falter and give up a game in the standings to Amherst before they meet in their titanic matchup next weekend.

Here’s the schedule for this weekend:
Friday:
Amherst at Middlebury (DH) 2 PM
Colby at Tufts 3 PM
Bates at Trinity 3 PM
Wesleyan at Hamilton 4 PM

Saturday:
Amherst at Middlebury 12 PM
Wesleyan at Hamilton (DH) 12 PM
Colby at Tufts (DH) 12 PM
Bates at Trinity (DH) 12 PM

Mid-Season Awards

With a few weekends left before the season draws to a close we thought now was a good time to put forth our awards for the year thus far. We took into account the entire season, but weighted conference performance above all.

West Division

MVP – Mike Odenwaelder ’16 Outfielder/Pitcher (Amherst) – Odenwaelder wins by a thread over many other deserving candidates. Odenwaelder is thumping the ball all over the place with a .447 average and top-notch .697 slugging percentage. He leads Amherst with 21 RBIs and is tied with Connor Gunn ’16 with three homers. All that being said, what puts him over the top is his mound dominance. The sophomore is so talented that he has pitched 20.2 innings for a team loaded with pitching. His 1.74 ERA is the sixth best mark in the NESCAC and he has held opponents to a .123 average. The only runs he has allowed were in his first appearance of the season. Odenwaelder is not one of the weekend starters (yes, Amherst is that talented), but his arm is one of the most electric in the league.

Honorable Mention- Joe Jensen ’15 (Hamilton), Donnie Cimino ’15 (Wesleyan), Alex Kelly ’14 (Middlebury) and Matt Kastner ’14 (Williams)

Most Valuable Pitcher – Dylan Driscoll ’14 (Amherst) – Amherst garners another award because one of the main reasons Odenwaelder isn’t starting is the performance of the Jeffs’ other starters, Driscoll in particular. The only team that has gotten to Driscoll is Williams, who roughed up the righty for six runs. Besides that, Driscoll has allowed one run in four starts which all lasted at least seven innings. A 1.50 ERA through 36 innings is nothing to scoff at. He barely walks anybody, yielding only four free passes on the season, but he still strikes batters out at a 8.50 K/9 rate. The senior is the leader of a staff that is deep in experience and talent.

Honorable Mention- Jjay Lane ’15 (Hamilton), Nick Cooney ’15 (Wesleyan) and John Cook ’15 (Amherst)

Most Improved Player – Joe Jensen ’15 Outfielder (Hamilton) – Last season Jensen was a stolen base savant who got on-base at an about league average rate of .347. This season, however, the Hamiltonian lead-off man has morphed into an on-base machine still capable of wreaking havoc on the base paths. A big reason for his .514 OBP is that he doesn’t strike out often while also drawing a lot of walks. He has as many walks, 10, as strikeouts. That, coupled with speed that earned him a second-place finish in the 400m final at the March NCAA Indoor Championships, Jensen maximizes his chances of getting on-base even when he doesn’t connect with the ball well. He has been carrying the Hamilton offense for most of the season.

Honorable Mention – Andrew Vandini ’16 (Amherst), Luke Pierce ’16 (Williams) and Max Araya ’16 (Middlebury)

Rookie of the Year – Jack Cloud ’17 Outfielder (Williams) – Wesleyan’s Robby Harbison is making a strong push for this award right now, but Cloud’s body of work is better at this point. An OBP of .459 and slugging percentage of .600 would be exceptional for a senior, and to do it as a freshman is almost unheard of. After only striking out only once in his first 11 games, Cloud has been rung up 10 times in his last six contests, but he is still getting on-base, having hit safely in five of those last six. He has not kept up the torrid pace he established at the beginning of the season, but those numbers were almost impossible to continue.

Honorable Mention – Robby Harbison ’17 (Wesleyan), Ellis Schaefer ’17 (Wesleyan), Kenny Collins ’17 (Hamilton) and Jason Lock ’17 (Middlebury)

East Division

MVP – Jason Buco ’15 Outfielder (Colby) – This pick might come as a surprise to some. Nobody in the East sticks out from the crowd, but Buco gets the nod over a number of others. A case could be made that teammate Kevin Galvin ’14 is having a slightly better season offensively. His OBP of .469 is 50 percentage points better than Buco’s, more than making up for Buco’s 48 percentage points advantage in slugging percentage. One big difference is that Buco’s defense has been much better. Galvin plays a more demanding position in third base, but his fielding percentage of .806 is still far too low. Buco’s four home runs is tied for tops in the league. Also a star on the football team, Buco is helping to turn around two programs at Colby that are hitting new heights.

Honorable Mention – Kevin Galvin ’14 (Colby), Chad Martin ’16 (Bowdoin), Kevin Davis ’14 (Bates), Griffin Tewksbury ’14 (Bates) and Max Freccia ’14 (Tufts)

Most Valuable Pitcher – Kyle Slinger ’15 (Tufts) – No award is easier to hand out than this one. That is saying a lot considering that the top four and nine of the top 11 league leaders in ERA pitch in the East. Despite that, no pitcher can touch Slinger’s dominance so far. To quickly reiterate what we wrote on Monday, Slinger has a 0.66 ERA and .136 opponents’ batting average for the season. He strikes out one batter an inning and hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts. The only wart on his resume is the 19 walks he has handed out thus far, but the walk issue is the equivalent of punctuation error in a Pulitzer Prize novel. Slinger has been so good that he garnered consideration for MVP of the East. A plethora of other pitchers are throwing great this season, but nobody can match the Tufts ace.

Honorable Mention: Scott Goldberg ’15 (Colby), Tim Superko ’17 (Tufts), Brad Reynolds ’14 (Bates) and Harry Ridge ’16 (Bowdoin)

Most Improved Player – Scott Goldberg ’15 Starting Pitcher (Colby) – When Goldberg got off to a fast start this season some questioned his ability to maintain it given how much he struggled last season. And yet, Goldberg has actually gotten better as the season goes on. He stumbled a bit against Trinity before tossing a gem against Bowdoin going eight innings while allowing two (unearned) runs. A season after posting a 5.50 ERA, he is the justified owner of a mark five times as low: 1.05. Goldberg is also striking out batters at a prodigious rate of 10.52 per nine innings. This award could just as easily have gone to fellow Mule Kevin Galvin ’14, who is enjoying a huge bump in production as well.

Honorable Mentions: Peter Cimini ’16 (Bowdoin), Brian Wolfe ’15 (Trinity) and Kevin Galvin ’14 (Colby)

Rookie of the Year – Tim Superko ’17 Starting Pitcher (Tufts) – If it wasn’t for how well Slinger has been pitching, Superko would be neck and neck with Goldberg for best pitcher in the East. For now he has to be content with being seen as the understudy to Master Slinger. Keep in mind, he is no slouch of an understudy, the owner of a 1.04 ERA and eye-catching 11.77 K/9. His two wins undersells the impact he has had for the Jumbos as a freshman. Last weekend the bullpen blew a lead after Superko threw five innings of one run ball. One knock of him is that he has only pitched 26 innings while never going more than six in a start. As Tufts takes any restrictions off him, Superko will only continue to improve. As an aside, the East is definitely lacking in impact freshmen overall when compared to the West.

Honorable Mention – Ryder Arsenault ’17 (Colby) and Tom Petry ’17 (Tufts)

Tell us what you think, where we went wrong and who we missed in the comments section.