Tag: Tarik Smith

Are the Jumbos Better without Their Big Man? Tufts Season Preview

As the only real interior presence for the Jumbos, C Tom Palleschi '17 will need to alter shots and rebound for Tufts - and stay out of foul trouble. (Courtesy of Johnson & Wales Athletics)
As the only real interior presence for the Jumbos, C Tom Palleschi ’17 will need to alter shots and rebound for Tufts – and stay out of foul trouble. (Courtesy of Johnson & Wales Athletics)

The biggest news in the Tufts offseason is, without a doubt, the loss of Hunter Sabety. Though he was injured on and off for the majority of last season, Sabety still averaged 14.9 ppg and gave the Jumbos much more versatility down low. The combo of Tom Palleschi ’17 and Sabety was arguably the most talented bigs combo in the NESCAC, but it also created some structural issues for the team. When Sabety was healthy, it almost felt like Tufts was playing three different styles during each game: one for Sabety as the lone big, one for Palleschi as the lone big, and one for a lineup that included both centers. Though deadly at times, this definitely led to inconsistency for the Jumbos, and the coaches believe that the squad will be much more in sync this year when they can maintain one offense throughout.

2014-15 Record:

13-12 overall, 6-4 NESCAC (4th); lost first round of NESCAC tournament to Williams in Overtime, 87-77; did not qualify for NCAAs

Coach: Bob Sheldon, 28th year, 386-289 (.572)

Starters returning: Four

G Stephen Haladyna ’16 (7.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.8 spg)
G Ryan Spadaford ’16 (7.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.5 3pt/game)
G Thomas Lapham ’18 (3.4 ppg, 1.7 apg, 41.8% FG, 46.9% 3PT FG)
C Tom Palleschi ’17 (12.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.4 bpg)

The Jumbos technically return four starters, but Palleschi is the only one who was a consistent starter last year. Spadaford and Haladyna split time pretty evenly in the starting lineup, and Lapham also started about half the games, splitting the other half with Tarik Smith ’17. Smith started the first 11 games of the season – Lapham started the next 14 in his stead. Drew Madsen’s ’17 name could also be thrown in the mix here, but the majority of his starts came when Sabety was injured last year, so his starting experience is also limited.

Projected Starting Five:

 

G Ryan Spadaford

Spadaford, a natural two guard, will see time at all three guard positions this year, as the Jumbos will look to play smaller and push the tempo. As a senior co-captain with Haladyna and Palleschi, it will be interesting to see Spadaford evolve as more of a leader on the court since the last two years he has played more as a quiet member of the supporting cast. He has shown that he can light it up for stretches, but consistency is certainly something to look for in Spadaford this year. If he can get his jump shot going, that will do wonders for the premier shooters on the team, Haladyna and Vinny Pace ’18.

G Stephen Haladyna

Haladyna was rightfully disappointed after his junior campaign due to his step back in offensive production. Haladyna went from starting every game he played and averaging 12.4 per game as a sophomore to splitting time and putting up just 7.8 ppg. The biggest reason for this drop in scoring is that Haladyna struggled to get a rhythm from behind the arc, possibly because he was the only established shooter in the Jumbos lineup and was feeling the pressure. The senior co-captain needs to get hot early and stay hot throughout the season, proving to be one of the most important pieces of the puzzle on the offensive end for Tufts.

G Vinny Pace

Pace should without a doubt see an increase in production this season after a pretty average freshman year. Pace has improved physically and has developed much more consistency on his jump shot. Defensively, Pace’s wingspan and athleticism will surely prove valuable for the Jumbos, who I’m sure will look to pressure opposing teams with more trapping defenses than in past years. The coaches are very excited to see how Pace plays this year, and for good reason. Now that he has gotten used to the very different pace of college ball (I crack myself up), I am projecting Pace to be in the running for one of the All-NESCAC teams as we approach the end of the season.

F Ben Engvall ’18

This could be a bit of a surprising pick to some, but Engvall could see big minutes out of the starting lineup for Tufts this season. Madsen will likely switch in and out with Palleschi, leaving the four spot open. Meanwhile, the Jumbos will want their two quickest guards, Smith and Lapham, coming off the bench, where Smith had a lot of success last year and where Lapham won’t feel too much pressure: this is where Engvall comes in. Engvall’s value is that he is really the only true forward on this team, and he fits right into what the Jumbos are going to try to do this year: run. Engvall can play bigger than he is and is unafraid to bang around in the post, but he can also help spread the floor and handle the ball when he’s matched up against bigger opponents. Engvall is going to play a sneaky huge role for the ‘Bos this year.

C Tom Palleschi

As a redshirt junior, Palleschi is looking to follow up on a strong return to the court last year in which he was selected to the Second Team All-NESCAC. He led the NESCAC with an average of 2.4 blocks per game, while finishing 13th in rebounding and 16th in scoring with 6.1 and 12.0 per game, respectively. Much of the Jumbos’ success will depend on Palleschi’s ability to stay out of foul trouble since the Tufts roster is loaded with guards.

Breakout Player:

G Vinny Pace

How could I not like Vinny from New Jersey here? But seriously, Vince Pace is the real deal. He has shown he can put up big points at times, but his consistency didn’t fully develop last year as some anticipated it would. I’m expecting a big year from Pace on the offensive end of the court since Tufts will have to rely heavily on their guard play throughout the season. With so few true bigs on the Tufts roster, Pace will likely be matched up against bigger, less athletic players due to his length and size (6’5”, 180 lbs). The coaches are high on Pace this year, and if he can take advantage of the matchup problem that he is going to create, I don’t see anything stopping him from becoming one of the leaders on this team.

Everything else:

The Jumbos will almost surely be trying to push the tempo this year with their surplus of guards, and the sophomore class is the most important part of the picture. There are seven sophomores on the team (six returners and one transfer, G Kene Adigwe, from Claremont McKenna College), all of whom are guards besides Engvall. This class had their opportunity to gain experience last year, but they don’t have too much time to learn anymore as they make up the core of this team. I’ve already mentioned Pace and Engvall’s importance above, and Lapham clearly played a part in Tufts’ success last year, but a couple other names to watch this year are Stefan Duvivier ’18 and Everett Dayton ’18. Duvivier is an athletic freak who excels in pushing the tempo and getting to the hoop. He does triple jump and high jump for the Tufts track team in the spring, so you can imagine how hard Duvivier can throw it down. Duvivier could play an instant-offense role. Meanwhile, Dayton is a very solid, well-rounded guard. His length is important on defense, and I think his biggest asset comes in his versatility at both ends. Dayton will see time at the 1-4 positions, and will causes turnovers when the Jumbos go to press/trapping situations on defense. Though not a sophomore, Tarik Smith is very important to the Tufts game plan. He will probably be the primary point man once again, even if he technically comes off the bench. Smith went from averaging 6.6 ppg and 4.4 apg as a starter to 12.9 ppg and 2.6 apg. Once Coach Sheldon made that transition, Smith stopped worrying about being a true point, and started using his elite athletic ability to put the ball in the hoop.

The other key for Tufts this year is going to be their ability to rebound the basketball. They will clearly be outsized (they only have three players over 6’5”), so if the Jumbos don’t gang-rebound they will run into issues. I know I mentioned it above, but it is absolutely vital that Palleschi stays out of foul trouble. Madsen does not present the same size as Palleschi, and rebounding becomes a lot tougher when your one true center is out of the game. Expect Duvivier, Pace, Engvall and Haladyna to present themselves as secondary rebounders to Palleschi and Madsen this season.

Can the Real Jumbos Please Stand Up: Tufts Season Wrap-up

Tom Palleschi's return to the court was huge for the Jumbos. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tom Palleschi’s return to the court was huge for the Jumbos. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Season Record: 13-12 (6-4), lost to Amherst in NESCAC Quarterfinals

When our dear forefathers, Damon Hatheway and Jeff Hetzel, put together their preseason predictions, they put Tufts as their #1 team citing the oodles of talent on the roster. The Jumbos certainly didn’t look like the best team in the conference when they started the season 2-7 against a tough schedule. Then suddenly, when the conference season began, Tufts turned into the team Damon and Jeff thought they would be. They blew out Middlebury and Amherst before going on the road and handing Trinity their only conference loss even though the Jumbos made only one three pointer all game. Tarik Smith ’17 became unstoppable for defenses during this stretch. Tom Palleschi ’17 and Hunter Sabety ’17 were coexisting in the middle. Then Smith started to come back to earth, and Sabety suffered a knee injury. The Jumbos managed to beat Colby in the final weekend to secure a home playoff game, but they ran into a buzzsaw in the quarterfinals.

So how good of a team was Tufts really? They were certainly better than their 13-12 record would indicate. It took a long time to figure out how all the pieces fell together for them, but once Coach Bob Sheldon shuffled the starting lineup, this was one of the better teams in the NESCAC. However, the injury to Sabety made any type of NESCAC tournament run out of the question. Damon and Jeff might have simply been a year early in their prediction. Ben Ferris ’15 is the only contributor who graduates, and the Jumbos have a lot of other talented perimeter players like Vincent Pace ’18 to replace him.

High Point: 58-55 win at Trinity Saturday, January 17

The Jumbos were the best team in the NESCAC for the first two weeks of conference season. This win over Trinity, the Bantams only loss in conference play, came the day after Tufts absolutely rolled Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak. The game against Trinity was a low-scoring, hard-fought affair that was won on an elbow jumper by Palleschi with 13 seconds left. The victory lifted Tufts to 3-0 in the NESCAC, and the Jumbos were the only team still undefeated in league play. Though they are not traditionally known for their defense, Tufts held Middlebury, Amherst and Trinity to an average of 57.0 PPG over those three games. Tufts finished 3-4 the rest of the way, but their potential was clear for that stretch.

MVP: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17

First of all, Hunter Sabety ’17 would have won this if he had remained healthy, but it is impossible to give it to him since he only played in 60 percent of Tufts’ games. Palleschi’s story is well known, and he truly overcame a lot just to get back on the court. That he returned and ended the year playing some of his best basketball is just another statement about his personal strength and will. Palleschi finished the NESCAC conference season with 13.9 PPG. Along with Chris Hudnut ’16, he has the most diverse offensive game in the league, capable of hitting shots from 15 feet or using his footwork in the lane to get easy buckets. He also was a terror in the paint averaging 2.4 BPG, the most of anybody in the NESCAC. Palleschi will likely spend much of the offseason extending his range out to the three point line in order to help Tufts have better spacing for next season. Another year removed from surgery, he should be even better in 2015-2016.

Player to Watch: Small Forward Stephen Haladyna ’16

Dominating the paint is great, but it is hard to win without good shooting from outside, especially because that shooting opens things up on the interior. A big reason for the Jumbos’ early season struggles was they couldn’t shoot as they made the least amount of threes of any NESCAC team out of conference. Haladyna was supposed to be a leading shooter for Tufts, but he finished the season shooting an abysmal 23.6 percent from deep . Yet he actually shot 37.5 percent from three in conference play. The odds of him shooting such a low percentage overall again next season are slimmer than the chances that he is at least a respectable shooter. After all, he did shoot 36.2 percent from three as a sophomore. A bounce back season for Haladyna will give Tufts the balance they need on the offensive end.

NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview: #5 Amherst at #4 Tufts

How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George '17 make in this weekend's NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)
How much of an impact can the uber-talented David George ’17 make in this weekend’s NESCAC Quarterfinal matchup? (Courtesy of Megan Robertson/Amherst College Office of Communications)

Three time defending NESCAC Tournament champion Amherst hits the road in a quarterfinal matchup for the first time since 2010. Meanwhile, the Jumbos are playing in the #4 vs. #5 game for the fourth time in five years, and for the third time as the fourth seed. Amherst blew a chance to jump up to the second seed by getting torched by Middlebury last Sunday, and Tufts went 1-1 last weekend, the lose coming in a three-point defeat on the road at Bowdoin.

Last time they played: 80-53 Tufts

The two squads last met in the second weekend of NESCAC play, and before we go any further, let’s first acknowledge the fact that this game has the potential to be COMPLETELY different from the first tilt. Back on January 16, when Tufts dominated then #25 Amherst 80-53 at LeFrak, a couple of things were different. Tufts was still an underdog, and at that time occupied the final spot in our Power Rankings. Nowadays the Jumbos come into the game playing much better ball and with a winning record. Point guard Tarik Smith ’17 was just beginning his transformation into dynamic scoring threat off the bench, and was in the midst of probably the best shooting stretch of his life. In 13 games since being removed from the starting five, Smith has averaged 13.8 PPG, as opposed to 6.0 PPG as a starter. Forward Connor Green ’16 hadn’t really gotten rolling yet. Since then he has scored 19 points or more six times in 10 games, and is coming off possibly his most impressive offensive performance of the season in his last game at Middlebury. Hunter Sabety ’17, even though he was ineffective on the boards, was his usual offensive presence inside offensively, tallying 14 points on 7-10 shooting, and defensively he had four blocks. It’s unclear whether Sabety, who’s been out since January 24 with a knee injury, will be able to take the floor on Saturday. Even if he does, what kind of shape will he be in? Jayde Dawson ’18 was still starting at point guard for Amherst. Reid Berman ’17 has since taken over and facilitated exceptionally well to the Amherst scorers.

The Lord Jeffs never held a lead in the last game between these two teams. The biggest issue was that Amherst simply didn’t shoot well, and Tufts was hot all game long. The Jeffs’ starters went just 7-28 (25 percent) from the field, and Jeff Racy ’17 was the only Amherst player who one could say had even a decent game offensively. Meanwhile, the Jumbos shot better than 50 percent from deep and 49.1 percent from the field, numbers well above what Tufts can usually do and below what Amherst usually allows, so expect some regression to the mean this time around.

Tufts X-factor: Forward Tom Palleschi ’17

Tom Palleschi '17 will have to play big against Amherst's post presence David George.
Tom Palleschi ’17 will have to play big against Amherst’s post presence David George.

As mentioned above, Sabety’s status is seriously in question. According to this Tufts Daily article, he has been cleared to return as of Tuesday, but it is unclear if he will play still. When healthy and at his best, Sabety is one of the most talented (and productive) players in the NESCAC. In his absence, tri-captain Tom Palleschi ’17 has emerged to make good on the promise he showed as a freshman two seasons ago. If Palleschi is alone in the front court he will have a tough time dealing with David George ’17, so the outcome of that battle could significantly impact the outcome of the game. Since January 24, Palleschi has taken on a much more of the offensive burden and is tallying 15.5 points per game on 47.2 percent (50-106) shooting, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. Tufts needs that kind of production and more from the lefty if they are going to dispose of Amherst once again. But, if the Jumbos can throw the Twin Towers out against a shallow Amherst front court then Tufts will have a significant advantage in this game.

Hunter Sabety '17 is one of the NESCAC's most feared player on either side of the court - but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Hunter Sabety ’17 is one of the NESCAC’s most feared player on either side of the court – but will he even be active against Amherst? (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Since losing Sabety in January, Tufts has gone 5-3. The wins have come against Connecticut College (7-16), Hamilton (14-10), Colby (13-11), UMass-Dartmouth (12-12) and Fitchburg St. (14-10). Tufts has one of the strongest strength of schedules in the Northeast according to the NCAA Regional Rankings, but none of their recent wins have come against stiff competition.

Amherst X-factor: Three-point Shooting

The biggest contributors to the Lord Jeffs’ long range game are Racy and Green. Racy is a pure shooter, who not long ago set the Amherst College record with 10 three pointers made in one game when he went 10-14 from deep off of the bench in a win over Conn. College. Green, meanwhile, shoots just under 40 percent from deep and has knocked down at least six three pointers in half of his last six games. In the Jeffs’ six losses this year, they have shot just 42-127 (33.1 percent) from deep, but they are a 37.0 percent shooting team on the season from three-point range. Amherst has attempted the second most three pointers in the NESCAC this season, and since they lack much of a scoring presence inside (though we’ve seen George turn it on for short spurts in the past), this team relies on making outside shots to stay in the game.

Three Questions

1. Who guards Connor Green?

There is a distinct possibility that Tufts plays zone to slow down Green as that was the defense they used Saturday against Bowdoin. However, if they go man, the honor will likely go to Ben Ferris ’15. Palleschi will likely be locked up with George down low, and if Sabety is active he could take on George while Palleschi slides over to cover Jacob Nabatoff ’17, who can take the ball away from the basket more than George can. Smith will probably come off the bench as he has been for awhile now but will still see most of the minutes defensively against Berman and Dawson. So either Ferris or Stephen Haladyna ’16 are the only ones left to match up with Green. Ferris has better strength than Haladyna, something that is necessary against the multi-faceted Green. This will be a tall order for whomever draws Green.

2. What does Tufts do when the shots stop falling?

As mentioned above, the Jumbos made better than one out of every two shots they took from beyond the arch last time these teams played, but they are a 31.5 percent three point shooting team on the season. So if they are forced to find other ways to score, they have two options. Smith will have to penetrate and dish to open shooters as well as his big men. Smith has the quickness advantage over both Berman and Dawson, so his driving ability will be key. Secondly, they will need to work inside-out at times. Amherst can throw another big body down there besides George in Eric Conklin ’17, but Conklin has much less experience than George and the Jeffs give up a lot on the offensive end with him on the floor. Whoever gets the ball with their back to the basket and Conklin on him will have to make plays either by scoring or drawing a double team and dishing.

3. Can David George make an impact on offense?

Frankly, George has been disappointing offensively this season. He’s made a moderate improvement in scoring, up from 11.2 points per 40 minutes to 16.1 in that regard, but there is so much more potential there. Sticking with the rate statistics, George had 4.1 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes in 2013-14, and this season has barely raised that number to 5.2 per 40 minutes. His field goal percentage has actually gotten slightly worse this season. George has made some improvements but with his size and athleticism he still has a lot of room to grow on offense. We mentioned above that Racy and Green from deep could be the X-factors that helps Amherst win this game, but over the course of the whole tournament it could be George that plays the biggest role if Amherst is to win its fourth straight NESCAC title.

What to Expect

Nothing close to last what happened last game. If this game is decided by more than 10 points I would be shocked. I do hope that Sabety can get on the floor, because it creates a lot more intrigue and he is fun to watch. If he does, for Tufts the question will be how quickly Sabety can shake off the rust and mesh well with Palleschi inside. Expect Smith to have some success attacking the lane off of the dribble, and a big game from Green on the other end. Despite the letdown last Sunday at Middlebury, Amherst still has arguably the best defense in the NESCAC and won’t allow Tufts to get near 80 points again, but I feel as though the Jumbos match up well with the Lord Jeffs. It will all come down to Tufts’ front court play. I’m expecting Sabety to see the court, but he won’t be 100 percent and his impact won’t be enough to bring home the victory. Lastly, the Amherst players know how to win and I’m sure that in their minds expect to return to the NCAA tournament, and the Lord Jeffs hold the advantage in the coaching department (just ask the Amherst broadcast team).

Prediction: Amherst 73 – Tufts 65

Friday Recap and Saturday/Sunday Preview

Reaction to Friday’s Games

Will the Real Middlebury Please Stand Up?

You’re killing me, guys. A 9-0 start, an 0-2 start to conference play including a blowout loss to Tufts, an absolute dismantling of Wesleyan, just scraping by with a win against the conference’s only remaining winless team, and now another blowout loss to the Ephs. I was starting to think that the Tufts and Conn. games could be chalked up to having to play on Sunday and maybe that’s where Middlebury’s struggles were based, but there was no excuse for this one. Nearly a full week of rest and preparation and the Panthers just fell flat. And the game was never really close. Middlebury had the lead for all of one possession of the ball game before Williams stole it away for good with a Dan Aronowitz ’17 trey with 19:11 to go in the first half.

Hayden Rooke-Ley '15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 poured in 20 points on 5-11 (3-8 3PT) shooting to lead all scorers. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Obviously, I’m closer to the Middlebury team than any other in the NESCAC, and so I still have hope for this season because I understand why they’ve had some of their struggles. Matt St. Amour ’17 returned tonight but likely wasn’t at full strength and showed some rust from the three-point line, going 0-4. Captain Dean Brierley ’15, who has filled in in the starting lineup the last three games, is a capable shooter himself but St. Amour has a more dynamic offensive game when he’s good and healthy. The performance from Matt Daley ’16 was certainly promising. It’s been a month now since the athletic big man has returned to action but Coach Jeff Brown has been working him into the rotation slowly. For what reason, we don’t know. Perhaps to teach Daley a lesson or simply because Nick Tarantino ’18 had been playing consistently. However, a near double-double from Daley in just 21 minutes (a season high) might inspire Coach Brown to let Daley loose a bit more going forward. It’s worth the chance because obviously this team is not in a place right now where it can compete for the NESCAC title, and Daley could be an X-factor down the stretch. Last but not least, it was just an uncharacteristic night for Middlebury as they shot poorly from everywhere on the floor and they allowed the Ephs to shoot over 50 percent from the floor. On the season Middlebury opponents were shooting under 37 percent from the field before this game. Maybe the sloppy performance has something to do with the fact that J-term just ended for the Middlebury team. Perhaps they felt that little bit of fatigue mixed with relief that always comes with passing in a final paper or taking that final exam. But they will need to overcome distractions much more serious than that if they are going to win the NESCAC this season.

The PG Battle in Amherst is Over

Reid Berman ’17 is the real deal. I talked in the Friday Preview about how Berman was a pass-first point guard who could really grab hold of the starting job with a good performance on Friday night. Berman did pretty much exactly what he was supposed to do, dishing out 13 assists. And as advertised, he didn’t look to shoot much, only taking five shots (missing them all). Of course, Berman is not a polished product. Zero percent from the floor isn’t a good stat, no matter how many assists you tally, and he also turned the ball over six times, but he seems to be a good fit on a team with three starters who can knock down a lot of trey balls.

All Hail the Bantams

For at least one day, Trinity is the undisputed king of the ‘CAC. I doubted the Bantams going into this one, thinking that John Swords ’15 would force Trinity to take a lot of threes and I didn’t think a lot of those threes would go in. Well, I was half right. Trinity attempted 26 threes, just three short of a season high, but they were able to sink 11 of them (42.3 percent). Rick Naylor ’16 was the hero for the Bantams, scoring seven straight points, including a three at the end of regulation and four points to open the overtime period, to help clinch the victory.

Rick Naylor '16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)
Rick Naylor ’16 scored 13 of his 16 points after halftime to help the Bantams beat the Polar Bears. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Defense was the story of the night. Shot clock violations played into the narrative on both sides. Trinity forced one near the end of regulation and Bowdoin caused their own with five seconds left in overtime, but was unable to get a clean shot for the win and Bryan Hurley’s ’15 desperation three was no good as the buzzer sounded.

Ed Ogundeko ’17 continues to be a beast on the boards for Trinity. The 6’6″ forward snagged another 12 rebounds and still leads the NESCAC in rebounds per conference game despite coming off of the bench and only playing 20.5 minutes per conference game.

If there’s a downside to the Bantams thrilling victory, it might be that this game would suggest that Trinity needs an uncharacteristically efficient shooting night in order to beat the NESCAC’s best. But this is just one game, so let’s not jump to conclusions. Instead, let’s let the Bantams enjoy their time atop the heap. If we’ve learned anything in the NESCAC this season it is that no one is safe, so don’t get too comfortable up there.

Saturday/Sunday Preview

Players to Watch

1. Guard Joseph Lin ’15 (Hamilton)

Hamilton has given Middlebury a tough time in these teams’ last two matchups, Middlebury is going to be angry and Lin and Co. got Friday off so they’re going to be fresh. The student body is on vacation in Middlebury so it won’t be a particularly boisterous crowd, and I think that could benefit Lin, who had his worst conference game so far in the Hamilton win over Williams last week. I think Lin bounces back despite Middlebury’s tough defense. This is somewhat of a gut call, but if there’s one reason that I think Lin could have a big game it’s simply that I don’t see anyone else in the Hamilton starting five drawing a favorable matchup. Not that Lin vs. Jake Brown ’17 is an easy assignment for Lin to score on, but I think the Continentals lean heavily on the senior guard in this one and that he rises to the occasion.

2. Center John Swords ’15 (Bowdoin)

Last night Swords was more active and engaged on the offensive end than he has looked in a lot of games recently shooting it 13 times, a season high. Unfortunately he made only six, a terrible night considering his usual shooting percentages. Still, the Polar Bears would be happy to have Swords shoot so often every game. How Swords’ minutes get managed today will be fascinating to watch. He played a season high 41 minutes against Trinity, a very physical team. Bowdoin does not really have another player who can keep David George ’17 off of the offensive boards for Amherst so they are going to need their big guy to play a lot. Whether Swords is physically up for it is a big question. If he is not then the Polar Bears will need to dig deep if they want to avoid an 0-2 weekend.

3. Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 (Wesleyan)

Like Wesleyan as a team, at times Rafferty looks like one of the finer guards in the conference who is especially lethal from downtown. Then he also has games where he struggles to find his rhythm. Yesterday, Rafferty came off the bench, something he has done a couple of other times only to return to the starting lineup the next game. He played well coming off the pine with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists. That was not enough for Wesleyan to overcome a huge night from Graham Safford ’15. Rafferty has become more of a straight scorer this year, so making him the primary scorer off the bench is not actually a crazy idea. He and Tarik Smith ’17 could end up locking horns on both ends of the floor if both of them come off the bench. That two guards so talented are both filling a reserve role makes for an interesting storyline to watch today.

Game of the Day: Bowdoin (13-5, 4-2) at Amherst (13-5, 3-3), 3:00 PM

I get the feeling that this will be the closest of the five games to be played today and tomorrow. After Bowdoin lost the nail-biter with Trinity yesterday this game took on a lot more meaning for the Polar Bears, who could go from potential number one seed to middle of the pack over the course of two days if they lose to the Lord Jeffs. As mentioned above, the Swords-George matchup should be a good one, but the most interesting battles to watch will not be when the ball is in either player’s hands, but rather the fights for rebounds. Both players are defense-first and are top five in both rebound and blocks per game. Offensively, both players are very efficient, so something will have to give in this matchup.

Amherst’s biggest challenge will be stopping explosive guard Lucas Hausman ’16. The kid just keeps getting better and does most of his damage inside the arc or at the free throw line. The Lord Jeffs have had some difficult stopping guard penetration this season and have committed the third-most personal fouls per game in the NESCAC. Those two factors combined could mean a lot of trips to the line for Hausman, a 91.1 percent free throw shooter who went 13-13 from the stripe against Trinity last night. We will see some combination of Johnny McCarthy ’18 and Connor Green ’16 lined up with Hausman. Whether either player can slow down the Bowdoin scoring machine could be the difference in this game.

Lucas Hausman '16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)
Lucas Hausman ’16 has been unstoppable as of late. The junior dropped a career-high 30 against Trinity in a losing effort on Friday. (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics/www.CIPhotography.com)

Another interesting matchup occurs at the point guard position, where both teams employ Rajon Rondo-like playmakers. Hurley and Berman are both looking to pass first, the latter almost to a fault, so it should be fun watching them attack one another possession after possession. Hurley obviously gives up some size to Berman, but that shouldn’t be much of a disadvantage in this game seeing as Berman is unlikely to rise and fire, meaning that Hurley could have one of his best defensive games of the season today.

I missed on my prediction yesterday when I stated that Bowdoin would win by 10 over the Bantams, and today I’m going to have to pick against the Polar Bears. Especially given Amherst’s home court advantage, I think the Lord Jeffs win on a couple late free throws by Green. Keep in mind, though, that Amherst lacks a dead eye free throw shooter like Hausman. Green is the best from the stripe and he is shooting under 75 percent. I think he comes up clutch today, but the opportunity is there for Bowdoin to foul early and capitalize on some missed front ends of a one-and-one. Nevertheless, the pick is in: Amherst by five.

Enjoy all the games today.

Just Another Crazy Weekend: Stock Report 1/26

It was another wild weekend in NESCAC basketball, with all of the action going down on Saturday afternoon/evening. The amount of chaos so far in the conference is unquantifiable, but comparing the current NESCAC standings to our preseason composite power ranks gives you a good idea. Things might still shake out and end up a little bit closer to what we imagined at the beginning of the season, but right now the only teams we appeared to be really close on are Conn. College and Wesleyan, whom we ranked sixth but is sitting in a tie for fifth at the moment.

This weekend might have been the craziest yet. We had underdogs pulling off big wins at home in Clinton and Lewiston (that’s if we’re buying into Tufts. Are we ready to do that?), a classic CBB game with Bowdoin and Colby, and Middlebury losing to an United States College Athletic Association school (did anyone even know that the USCAA was a thing?). What do we make of all the madness? As always, some players’ stock rose while others fell.

Stock Up

1. Bryan Hurley ’15 and Lucas Hausman ’16

The two Bowdoin backcourt mates combined for 47 points, nine boards, seven assists and three steals to help the Polar Bears edge Colby by three points on Saturday, 68-65. With the crushing news that Keegan Pieri ’15 has probably played his last basketball game for Bowdoin due to his second concussion of the year (see below), this was a major statement game for the Polar Bears.

Boy, did Hurley and Hausman respond in a big way. We’ve talked quite a bit in this space about how Hurley hasn’t been quite the same player as he was pre-ACL injury, and Saturday was not a classic Hurley performance, but it was undoubtedly his best game of the season as he went 7-16 from the field, 4-9 from three and 5-6 from the line for 23 points. He’s now had four straight games shooting over 40 percent from the field and six straight with multiple made treys. Suffice to say he looks much more comfortable these days.

As for Hausman, he might have a case for Most Improved Player in the NESCAC this season, and he’s among the league leaders in scoring. With him and Hurley firing on all cylinders, Bowdoin might have the best offensive backcourt in the NESCAC. But it remains to be seen whether the duo can keep up this level of performance for the rest of the season.

2. Joseph Lin ’15

I guess it’s time to start believing in Lin, who’s averaging 19.6 PPG and 9.8 APG in conference games. Lin had his worst shooting night of the NESCAC season against Williams (4-12, 11 points), but he stilled handed out nine assists in 37 minutes. He is the key cog for Hamilton, and it must have been huge for the team’s confidence to knock off the Ephs for Hamilton’s first conference win of the season. Now I must acknowledge that the three minutes that Lin did not play just so happened to be the last three of the game on Saturday and he exited with Hamilton down by three, so others probably deserve more credit for the upset win in particular, but Lin has been spectacular overall in big games and I think we can expect that to continue for the senior.

3. Trinity Offense

Now let’s take this with a grain of salt. The Trinity offense is still no Middlebury or Williams, but maybe they’ve caught on to something – shoot more threes. The Bantams went 8-18 from deep in their victory over Amherst, and are shooting 37.7 percent from three in conference games but have taken the fewest number of attempts. Chucking up shots from long range doesn’t really fit with this team’s personality. They’d much rather be physical in all facets of the game, but maybe that’s what the Bantams need to do to get the offense rolling. Hart Gliedman ’15 is a perfect example of this. He is a defense-first guard, a tough defender who gets a lot of steals and only scores 4.3 points per game. But he is shooting 47.4 percent from deep on the season. He hasn’t been a great three-point shooter in the past so maybe that percentage is an aberration, but for all we know he spent his entire summer jacking up treys like Jimmer Fredette and this could be for real.

Stock Down

1. NCAA Dreams for Non-Champions

If any of the top half of the league can win out in the regular season, that team will have a very good shot at making the tournament with an at-large bid based on the wins they would have to earn from here on out. Bowdoin made it last year at 19-5 and 6-4 in conference. But with the parity in the NESCAC the chances of Bowdoin or Trinity ending up 9-1 or for Middlebury going 8-2 are slim. Williams just had a terrible loss against Hamilton and has two other bad losses against teams hovering around .500. With eight losses already, Tufts would be a long shot if they lost in the NESCAC tournament, and the same can be said for Colby with seven losses. Bates is 12-4 and all of those losses came against winning teams, but with the rumors swirling that Graham Safford ’15 is less than 100 percent right now the Bobcats will be hard-pressed to remain contenders. Safford hasn’t been shooting particularly well since 2015 began and was already rested for one game two weeks ago. What Bates does have in their favor though is that two of their losses came against out-of-region teams, so they won’t hurt the Bobcats as much when the selection committee convenes. The Middlebury loss to Maine-Fort Kent was not pretty, but Fort Kent isn’t a D-III school so the same logic applies. The Panthers should be rooting hard for Tufts to keep winning to boost their strength of schedule. Wesleyan still has an outside chance, but the loss to Curry will be crushing for them. Amherst has just five losses, but some of them came in dominating fashion, which leads one to believe that the Lord Jeffs have flaws that will prevent them from going on a run and remaining unbeaten from now until tournament time. The NESCAC might be a one-bid team this year, something that has been talked about quite a bit this season but is becoming ever more realistic.

2. Conn. College Camels

Not to kick a team while its down, but the blowout loss to Wesleyan probably ends the Camels’ chances of sneaking into the playoffs. There was a glimmer of hope after Conn. played Middlebury tough last weekend, but that glimmer has been extinguished. Conn. is a young team with a lot of work to do. They’ve let teams run away with games too often this season, losing by double figures five times this season. The Camels need to learn how to play a complete game and sustain runs from their opponents.

3. PG Tarik Smith ’17 (Tufts)

Smith has been featured in this section for three straight weeks now, but for the first time his stock has fallen. Since being removed from the starting lineup Smith had elevated his game in NESCAC play and turned into a leader for the Jumbos. But then he goes and has his worst game in over two weeks, 10 points on 3-9 shooting and six turnovers as Tufts fell for the first time in conference. I think what this says is that Tufts needs Smith to be a scorer off of the bench if they are going to beat the good teams in the NESCAC. Hopefully Smith can go back to the player he had been in the previous four games when he shot nearly 70 percent from the field and averaged 17 PPG and return to the Stock Up section next week.

Power Rankings 1/21

Currently at seven in our ranks, Williams can move up starting tonight with a non-conference matchup at Amherst. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Currently at seven in our ranks, Williams can move up starting tonight with a non-conference matchup at Amherst. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The results this past week have brought forth much change in this edition of the power rankings. Teams we once thought were falling have started to find a groove, and teams that once looked great are beginning to slip. While only two or three games separate this weeks rankings from last’s, the conference action this week sent the league into upheaval.

1. Middlebury (12-2, 2-2) Last week: 3

At the start of the conference season Middlebury was expected to be at the top and a couple months in they have done enough to regain the top spot. Right now they are on a four-game winning streak during which Dylan Sinnickson ’16 has averaged 16.0 points per game and the team as a whole has averaged 89.0 points. But what has been underrated so far has been Middlebury’s defense. Opponents are averaging 62.2 points per game, but they also get more chances against the fast-paced Panthers. NCAA.com D-III hoops statistics were last updated on Monday, but at that time Middlebury’s opponents’ field goal percentage was tops in the nation and the Panthers had the 11th-best scoring margin in D-III. The grind for the Panthers comes at the end of the season, and as we know that a lot can change in a week in the NESCAC. As of right now, Middlebury has found a groove that looks sustainable

2. Amherst (11-4, 2-2) Last week: 4

The Lord Jeffs went 1-1 this week but remain ranked in my top three. A solid offense and a solid defense is obviously key, but what makes Amherst appealing is their winning culture. They’ve been here before. David Hixon’s experience and the reputation of his team’s to get better as the year goes on (Amherst won 24-straight to win the NCAA title in 2013 and 20 out of 21 before losing to Williams in the semifinals last year) earns the Lord Jeffs the benefit of the doubt. Despite a loss to Tufts, which seems to be happening to every top team, the Lord Jeffs are getting good production off the bench especially from G Jeff Racy ’17, who leads the league in three point field goals made in conference games.

3. Trinity (13-4, 3-1) Last week: 2

Winning a double OT thriller 71-69 against Williams and holding off a late Bates run gives Trinity the invaluable experience in close games come playoff time. But the Bantams won’t see the top spot in my ranks just yet. After an offensive breakout earlier in the season, the Bantams have cooled off and are ninth in points per NESCAC game.

4. Bates (11-4, 1-2) Last week: 1

The Bobcats had a difficult couple of games this past week; games that give us a better sense of who they really are. While Graham Safford ’15, who has been an integral part in the team’s success, did rest against UMPI, he and his squad were unable to get even one conference win against Amherst and Trinity. Is another late season slide in the works for Bates, or can they look to bounce back quickly against a Tufts team that has played very well as of late? While it has only been a couple of games, this week proved that the Bobcats need their entire starting five to contribute if they are going to beat the NESCAC’s elite squads.

5. Bowdoin (11-4, 3-1) Last week: 8

With the Polar Bears playing their last four games against conference opponents, they are now 3-1 in NESCAC play, tying them for first in the league standings. While a 3-1 record puts them in a good spot right now, two of those W’s came against struggling Hamilton and Conn. College teams. Don’t look now, but Bowdoin’s offense seems to be streaking, averaging 73.8 points per game in conference play. With Trinity and Middlebury among those still left to play, it will be interesting to see how Bowdoin stacks up against some of the league’s best defenses.

6. Tufts (7-7, 3-0) Last week: 11

The Jumbos, a team that was not high on my rankings last week, has proven me wrong by beating Middlebury, Amherst and Trinity in three consecutive games. Former starting PG-turned-sixth man Tarik Smith ’17 has played a huge role in their streak, shooting lights out, as well as in the clutch, hitting some big free throws against Trinity. Yes, they are 3-0 in the conference, and yes, Tufts has beaten three of the top teams in the league, but those are only three games, lets not start crowning them league champs. They are still 7-7 overall, which probably eliminates them from contending for an NCAA at-large bid already. This recent influx of offense, scoring 80+ points in four of their last six games, is bound to recede, but hey, maybe they’ve found something special this year.

7. Williams (11-5, 2-2) Last week: 5

Williams sits middle of the pack but has the pieces to get hot at any time. Recently, the Ephs played Trinity, Amherst, Colby and Bowdoin, a four-game stretch that epitomized their inability to get a consistent level of play. While Trinity and Amherst are similar, so are Colby and Bowdoin, and the Ephs were only able to win one of each. That being said, Daniel Wohl ’15 has been lights out offensively, averaging 23.2 points per game in-conference. Williams has the talent and are on the brink of finding their groove.

8. Colby (11-6, 3-1) Last week: 7

Colby is in a similar situation as Bowdoin, beating middle-of-the-road conference teams to give them a strong conference record. Chris Hudnut ’16 has been a huge factor in both scoring as well as rebounding the basketball (22.5 PPG and 11.5 RPG in-conference), which has helped the Mules get off to this fast start within the NESCAC. Colby has tallied the most points per game in-conference, but Wesleyan was the only opponent that is among the top half of the league in defensive scoring. We’ll know if Colby is for real after they go through the gauntlet of Bowdoin, Amherst and Trinity.

9. Wesleyan (12-5, 1-2) Last week: 6

Wesleyan is a team that looked promising early on has had a tough couple of games against Amherst and Middlebury. In both losses the offense struggled, scoring only 46 and 60 points, respectively. Their high-powered three point shooting was non-existent, while frequent turnovers halted any offensive flow. What a shame for a team that got off to an unprecedented start this season, winning 10 games faster than any team in program history. Facing Conn, Bates and Tufts in the next three games, Wesleyan needs to rediscover their offensive production.

10. Conn College (7-8, 0-3) Last week: 10

Conn is in a similar position to Hamilton, losing their last four games. Statistically ranked tenth offensively and eighth defensively in NESCAC games, the playoffs seem unlikely for the Camels. It might be time to adopt the spoiler role for the Camels. Wesleyan, Tufts and Bates are their next three opponents, and they can disrupt the league with every conference win they get.

11. Hamilton (10-6, 0-4) Last week: 9

Nothing seems to be going right for the Continentals, especially within the last four games. In these four NESCAC games, Hamilton has failed to get a win. Starting the season 7-0 in all non-conference games says one of two things; the NESCAC is much higher quality basketball than the upstate New York teams, or Hamilton’s game has lost its touch. I think it’s safe to say that both previous statements hold some amount of truth. While the playoffs are a pipe dream right now, don’t count Hamilton out to play spoiler against some “on the cusp” teams late in the season.

Appearances Can Be Deceiving: Stock Report 1/20

Tufts is the best team in the league, Bates is in danger of the same free fall as last year, and Wesleyan might be good, but they can’t compete with the NESCAC’s best.

All of these arguments could be made after this weekend, but could also also look foolish in another week. Consider this: at this point last week Middlebury was in the process of being exposed as soft. The Panthers responded with a 2-0 weekend, including the best half played by any NESCAC team this season in the first half against Wesleyan on Friday night. We still do not know much about how the league is going to shake out.

What is clear is that all of the chaos has hurt the NESCAC’s reputation nationally. For the first time since 2002, no NESCAC team was in the D3Hoops Top 25 released on Monday. Amherst and Trinity received a couple of votes each, but it will take a team stringing together a couple of weeks without losing before someone will claw back into the poll. The chances of multiple NESCAC teams making the tournament continue to fade as the committee sees the wide-openness as mediocrity.

Stock Up

Hard Non-Conference Schedules: Colby and Tufts entered conference play with a combined record of 11-12, but so far the two are 6-1 in conference play, with the Jumbos the most impressive team thus far in NESCAC play. Both coaches, Damien Strahorn for Colby and Bob Sheldon for Tufts, went out of their way to schedule hard teams out of conference. The combined records of the teams Colby and Tufts lost to is 126-52 (.710 winning percentage), and that record includes a 4-10 Maine-Farmington team which Colby lost to without Chris Hudnut ’16. Both teams now have turned the corner and for now are at the top of the league standings. Tufts in particular looked poised down the stretch against Trinity after losing a number of close games early in the season. Keep in mind that this stock is only up in the short term. The hard early schedule could come back to hurt both teams. Unless either team wins out in the regular season and wins a game or two in the NESCAC tournament, their chances of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament remains slim.

Class of 2016: Two weeks ago we noted how the current senior class could end with only two players crossing the 1,000 point mark. Last week saw two current juniors, Chris Hudnut ’16 (Colby) and Connor Green ’16 (Amherst) cross the same mark.

Chris Hudnut '16 (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)
Hudnut earned his second Player of the Week honor of the season by averaging 22.5 points and 11.0 rebounds in two conference games this week. (Courtesy of Bear Sports News)

Mike Boornazian ’16 (Bates) has 794 points currently and looks like a lock to reach 1,000 points. A recent explosion in points from Lucas Hausman ’16 (Bowdoin) means that with 630 points right now, he appears likely to cross the mark as well. Meanwhile, Luke Westman ’16 (Colby) is averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting an UNREAL 74.8 percent from the field. Westman never shoots from outside, but even still to shoot that well around the rim is exceptional, especially for a guard. Trinity is powered by their duo of Shay Ajayi ’16 and Jaquann Starks ’16. The junior class is not as deep or as star studded as the 2014 or possibly 2017 class, but it’s not far off, either.

Point Guard Tarik Smith ’17 (Tufts): A lot of different players have elevated their play in conference for the Jumbos, but Smith has unquestionably had the biggest impact. In three conference games Smith is averaging 17.3 PPG on the absurd shooting percentage slashline of 68.4/83.3/95.5. He scored nine points in the second half against Trinity, including the game sealing free throws in the waning seconds. However, big questions remain. First, there is zero percent chance Smith continues to shoot this well from deep and at the charity stripe so his efficiency is sure to go down. Second, this scoring binge is coming out of nowhere. In non-conference play Smith averaged 6.0 PPG and reached double digits only twice. Finally, Smith is only averaging one turnover per game during this stretch but is averaging over two per game on the year. But note that before conference play began, Smith had started all 11 games at the point for the Jumbos, while he has come off the bench in each NESCAC game so far. There is a chance that Smith moving out of the starting lineup has taken pressure off of him. More likely, Smith played a great three games, but regardless his play is representative of a wider trend for Tufts.

Stock Down

Traditional Powers: The Big Three of the NESCAC (Williams, Amherst, and Middlebury) are each sitting in the middle of the pack at 2-2. All three lost huge senior classes, but that does not fully explain how far back to the pack they have fallen. Consider that since 2001-2002 season, one of those three won the NESCAC regular season crown by going either undefeated or having only one loss. Since Middlebury still has to play Amherst and Williams, it is possible that all three finish with at least three losses. All three teams are more than talented enough to win the NESCAC tournament, but their rosters are not as flawless as in years past.

Wesleyan: As someone who was in the front row of the Wesleyan bandwagon, this was a very hard week. First the Cardinals went up to Amherst in a non-conference game and forgot how to shoot from deep in the process of a 21-point loss. Then after going up early in the first half against Middlebury 14-13, Wesleyan let up a 38-10 run by the Panthers to go into the half down 27 points. Their normally stout defense was unable to find a way to slow down any aspect of the Middlebury attack. Things got out of control quickly as the home Panthers just got in an offensive roll. Sixteen turnovers, with each starter having at least two, also was not helpful.

Wesleyan's Joseph Kuo '17 can't stop this finish from Matt Daley '16. (Courtesy of Michael O'Hara, Middlebury Campus)
Wesleyan’s Joseph Kuo ’17 can’t stop this finish from Matt Daley ’16. (Courtesy of Michael O’Hara, Middlebury Campus)

Now Wesleyan is 1-2 in conference, and because of their schedule, they have to go on the road for five of their final seven conference games. The Cardinals just rebounded with a nice win last night over Baruch, but they now face an uphill battle in conference play.

Point Guard Graham Safford ’15 (Bates): Though a bit simplistic, as Safford goes, so go the Bobcats. Last Tuesday in order to keep him rested, Bates coach Jon Furbush did not play Safford at all, but the results this weekend were subpar. Safford scored 12.0 PPG on only 26 percent shooting, and he did not make a single two-point field goal against Trinity. Not coincidentally, Bates went 0-2 against Trinity and Amherst. Those are two very hard road games, but Tufts also went 2-0 as Bates’ road partner this weekend. The Bobcats need their leading man to figure out how to avoid another late season slide. Last season Safford had a similar falloff with his overall points per game 4.4 higher than his conference average while his shooting percentage plummeted at the same time. Keeping him fresh is crucial, and Bates might need to rely on Billy Selmon ’15 to become the primary ball handler for short stretches.

Time to Invest: Stock Report 1/12

IMG_0316

What a weekend in the NESCAC. Could you have asked for a better first night of contests? Of the five games played on Friday night, four were decided by six points or less. Williams-Trinity went into double OT. A missed call by refs in Lewiston helped Bates to the win over Middlebury. Wesleyan had three shots from deep in the final seconds to tie the game against Colby but missed all of its attempts. And Connor Green ’16 came out of hibernation to lead Amherst to a victory over Hamilton, aided by the best offensive night of David George’s ’17 young career. The second round of conference games was only slightly less exhilarating, as Williams and Amherst played yet another classic and Tufts pulled a major upset over the suddenly suspect Middlebury Panthers. Suffice to say, Week 1 of the NESCAC season did not disappoint.

Stock Up

1. David George ’17

The Amherst big man is respected around the league for his defense, but he turned up his offensive game this weekend, scoring 29 points against Hamilton and 18 against Amherst, his highest totals of the season (the latter matching an 18-point performance in late December). George was 16-20 (80 percent) from the field and 15-19 (78.9 percent) from the stripe. Amherst is already one of the highest-scoring teams in the NESCAC. If George can be a consistent weapon on the offensive end while still maintaining his level of play on defense, Amherst will be dangerous and we could be witnessing the maturation of a future NESCAC POY candidate.

2. Colby Mules

Sure, they only beat the Wesleyan Cardinals by two and their nine-point win over the 7-6 Conn College Camels isn’t all that impressive, but for a team that came into the weekend barely over .500 getting to Monday with a 2-0 conference record is all one could ask for. This is a team with a lot of potential, which we’ve talked about before. For the second year in a row Coach Damien Strahorn is leaning heavily on his 2016 class, and they all played great this weekend. Last year the Mules could make the excuse that they were still young, but now that the core of this team is in its third year, they need to start getting the results. Maybe this was the first step towards accomplishing that.

3. Tufts’ Guard Play

We raved about the Tufts’ front court before the season started, but with Hunter Sabety ’16 out yesterday the Jumbos dominated Middlebury. Coach Bob Sheldon shook up the starting lineup, inserting Drew Madsen ’16, Ryan Spadaford ’16 and Thomas Lapham ’18, and no one responded better than the usual starting point guard, Tarik Smith ’17. Smith went 5-7 from the field, 2-2 from deep and 8-8 from the line for 20 points, netted two steals and only turned the ball over twice in 28 minutes. Against one of the NESCAC’s best one-on-one defensive guards in Jake Brown ’17, Smith was able to penetrate and cause havoc. Ben Ferris ’15, who just hasn’t been his old self on offense this year, had eight points, but they all seemed to come at big moments. Newcomer Vinny Pace ’18 showed some impressive touch inside and creative moves as he added eight points, and Stephen Haladyna ’16, another usual starter relegated to the bench, chipped in 11 points in his second-best shooting night of the year, percentage-wise. Tufts is still 5-7 overall, but 1-0 in the games that count the most.

Stock Down

1. Middlebury Panthers

You had to see this one coming. A few days after we gave them the top spot in our composite power rankings, they go and do something like this, losing a tight game to Bates and them getting blown out on Sunday against Tufts. As was noted on Twitter, basically the entire Middlebury roster was fairly ill on Friday night, so much so that there were rumors (the accuracy of which we will never know) that the game might be moved to another date, so props to them for gutting it out and making it a close game, but I don’t think we can say that, two days later, sickness was the reason that the Jumbos stomped them by 17 points. I don’t see this weekend as being indicative of a problem in the future, and I still think Middlebury can and will compete for a NESCAC title. But, I would be concerned that some of the negative attitude that seemed to creep up on the Panthers last season could resurface. I hope I’m wrong.

2. John Swords ’15

Maybe a bit of a surprising pick, because Swords certainly didn’t play badly this weekend, but as I noted in the power ranks last week, Bowdoin needs Swords to be a force if they are going to make it back to the NCAA tournament, and 17 points in 60 minutes of play isn’t going to cut it. Swords was pretty much his typical self in the rebounding and blocks categories, and still discourages anyone from setting foot in the paint with the ball, but I was banking on Swords elevating his game for the NESCAC season. Consider this a challenge, Mr. Swords.

3. Jayde Dawson ’18

The Fairleigh-Dickinson transfer came to Amherst with big expectations at the beginning of the season, and at this point we can probably assume that those expectations were a little bit too much to put on Dawson right away. After a couple nice games in a row, Dawson got one point, two rebound and zero assists in just 16 minutes in the Lord Jeffs’ biggest game of the season against rival Williams. Much like Michigan-Ohio State, in order to be one of the greats at Amherst, you have to beat Williams, and it seems like Dawson wilted under the bright lights. But, if last year was any indication, there’s a good chance that these teams meet again before the season is over, so Dawson should get a shot at redemption.

Composite Power Rankings 1/9

Hunter Merryman '15 and Middlebury are the cream of the crop, for now. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Hunter Merryman ’15 and Middlebury are the cream of the crop, for now. (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

As NESCAC season swiftly approaches tonight, we decided to get some of our staff members involved in this week’s power rankings. Everyone should feel pretty comfortable about the top team, but after that there was a huge amount of disagreement through the middle of the ranks which, I believe, is a testament to the depth in the league this season. On the other hand, it is probably also a result of a lot of impressive records against mediocre competition. That being said, the NESCAC continues to be one of the best Division-III hoops leagues in the nation, and we don’t see that changing any time soon.

Team Average AD SM AL JM PL
Midd 1.4 2 2 1 1 1
Amherst 2.6 1 1 4 5 2
Bates 3.4 6 3 3 2 3
Williams 4.2 3 6 2 4 6
Trinity 5.2 5 4 7 6 4
Wesleyan 5.6 4 5 5 7 7
Bowdoin 6.8 9 8 6 3 8
Hamilton 7.4 7 7 9 9 5
Colby 8.6 8 10 8 8 9
Conn 10 10 9 11 10 10
Tufts 10.8 11 11 10 11 11

(Contributors to the rankings: AD = Adam Dulsky; SM = Sean Meekins; AL = Adam Lamont; PL = Pete Lindholm)

1. Middlebury (9-0)

Adam, Pete, and I agree that the Panthers appear to be the class of the ‘CAC this season. Has this team returned to the level that the program was at from 2008-2013 when it lost 18 games over the course of five seasons? Probably not. I think that if Ryan Sharry, Andrew Locke, Nolan Thompson and the rest of the 2010-11 squad walked into Pepin in their prime they would dispatch the current edition of the Panthers with relative ease. But this team is no pushover, and in what appears to be a slightly down year for the usual suspects in Amherst and Williams, Middlebury could just grab its third NESCAC title.

For me personally, this ranking was less about the 9-0 record than the fact that I’ve felt since the preseason that this was a championship-worthy roster, and with the promising early season play of a few youngsters and the recent return of Matt Daley ’16, this team is only getting stronger.

2. Amherst (8-2)

Amherst and Williams will always gain respect just based on the name, but this team looks pretty good on the floor in its own right. In watching Amherst back in early December, we had some concerns about their perimeter defense.

Amherst is still allowing too many points per game (eighth in the NESCAC with 67.2), but NESCAC Rookie of the Year candidate Johnny McCarthy ’18 is a defensive force, leading the NESCAC in steals per game to date, and David George ’17 is still fantastic at discouraging points at the rim, so it’s curious that the Lord Jeffs have allowed so many points. What they are great at, though, is scoring. When they match up with our number one team, Middlebury, it will be a must-watch just for the ability of everyone involved to put the ball in the hoop.

3. Bates (9-2)

I like Bates more than most at this point in the season. Am I just jumping on the hype train? Maybe. But it seems like senior leader Graham Safford ’15 has elevated his game both on the stat sheet and in terms of his intangibles, and has really become a Kizel/Toomey type of transcendent player. In terms of numbers, he has improved on his field goal and three point percentages while also racking up almost two more assists per game. I think Safford leads the Bobcats deep into the NESCAC tournament.

4. Williams (9-3)

I know Ephs’ fans are sick of hearing it, but imagine if they still had Duncan Robinson. That would be scary. Even without Robinson, Hayden Rooke-Ley ’15 and Dan Wohl ’15 are just filling it up. Both are above 19.0 points per game. Rooke-Ley is like Ray Allen from the line right now, which you should read more about here. Wohl is not only one of the league’s best sharp shooters, but the 6’6″ guard/forward leads the league in defensive rebounds. The one thing this team lacks is depth, as six players chew up most of the minutes for first-year coach Kevin App. Perhaps to say that the team lacks depth is the wrong way to word it, because a lot of those bench guys could get big minutes elsewhere around the league, but it could cause a problem if one of the Ephs’ stars were to go down with an injury because his replacement would lack experience. Take Rooke-Ley for example, who was only able to play 10 minutes in Williams’ last game against Endicott because of a minor injury. Unfortunately, Rooke-Ley has a long injury history at Williams, so we have to hope that nothing more serious materializes for the senior.

5. Trinity (10-2)

With the Bantams it comes down to whether or not you believe that this uptick in scoring is for real, or if they will return to their anemic offensive ways once the competition stiffens up. I think they will regress some, but Jaquann Starks ’16 is a much better offensive player than he was last year, as is Shay Ajayi ’16, someone I thought could break out for the Bantams before the season began. I think this middle of the pack prediction is pretty accurate, and I could see them stealing a game in the NESCAC tournament on the road.

6. Wesleyan (10-2)

As we mentioned a few days ago, Wesleyan is off to an historic start to the season.

Guard Harry Rafferty ’17 has become less of a distributor and more of a scorer, leading the Cardinals in points per game. He and Jack Mackey ’16 make for a scary three-point duo. Rashid Epps ’16 has continued his maturation, averaging nearly a double-double so far this season, and Joseph Kuo ’17 is a force inside, turning away more than one shot per game. There’s a lot of experience on this roster, so even though this level of success is new to this Cardinals’ roster, they should be able to stay competitive throughout conference play.

7. Bowdoin (8-3)

I ranked Bowdoin much higher than the rest of the crowd. Even Lamont, a Polar Bear himself, had Bowdoin down a few notches more than I did. But this is a team with NCAA tournament experience, and I think the presence of John Swords ’15 gives them a chance to win any game, on top of the continued strong play of point guard Bryan Hurley ’15, who I think will continue to get better and more comfortable as he gets further away from the knee surgery that kept him out for most of last season.

8. Hamilton (10-2)

Hamilton fans aren’t going to like this one. The Continentals are 10-2 and we have them ranked eighth? Well the fact of the matter is that as much as we’ve talked about soft early season schedules for NESCAC teams this year, Hamilton might take the cake. Their best win came at home by just four points to 8-5 Lycoming. Joseph Lin ’15, Peter Kazickas ’15 and Ajani Santos ’16 have all taken huge steps forward this season, but there’s not much production coming after the starting five.

9. Colby (7-5)

It will hurt me if this team fails to make the playoffs, both because they are fun to watch and I have a few personal connections to the team. But they just don’t play any defense, which is key in conference play. Opponents are shooting 41.5 percent from the floor against the Mules, and Colby has the second-worst rebounding margin in the NESCAC. They really miss power forward Patrick Stewart ’16 and the defensive presence he helped bring besides Chris Hudnut ’16. If they can’t remedy these issues then they can say good bye to their chances of playing into late February.

10. Conn College (7-4)

Conn has actually bounced back well statistically from the graduation of Matt Vadas ’14, as the Camels are averaging 71.9 points per game, actually up from last year’s 69.3 points per game. But those points aren’t coming efficiently at all, as Conn has the league’s worst shooting percentage. But be patient Camels fans. There are five first years getting double digit minutes, the team’s best player, Zuri Pavlin ’17, is but a sophomore, and Bryan Gross ’15, currently getting under 10 minutes per game, is the only senior on the roster. So there will be better times ahead.

11. Tufts (4-7)

What can we say about the Jumbos this season? Despite so much potential before the year began, exactly what we feared might happen has come to fruition. Like in years past, Tufts just can’t put the pieces together. Last year it was injuries to Tom Palleschi ’17 and Ben Ferris ’15. This year it’s simply ineffectiveness. Guys that formerly were money from beyond the arc have completely lost the ability to hit threes, Ferris looks like a shell of his Rookie of the Year Award-winning self, Palleschi is still shaking off the rust and it appears that coach Bob Sheldon can’t find a lineup he likes because almost the entire roster is getting into most games. The lone bright spot is the continued production of Hunter Sabety ’17. With him, Palleschi and guards Tarik Smith ’17, Stephen Haladyna ’16 and Vinny Pace ’18 back for 2015-16, the story will be the same next season. Loads of potential, but when will it come together for Tufts?

Tufts Team Preview: Optimism Abounds in Medford

Courtesy of Tufts Athletics
Courtesy of Tufts Athletics

Editor’s Note: Unlike football, team previews are being released in no particular order.

Tufts Jumbos

2013-2014 record: 13-12 (4-6 NESCAC), seventh in NESCAC, reached quarterfinals of NESCAC tournament

Head Coach: Bob Sheldon, Jr., 27th season (373-277, .574)

Starters Returning: 3

G Ben Ferris ’15

G Stephen Haladyna ’16

F Hunter Sabety ’17

Breakout Player: G Vinny Pace ’18

With three starters returning and Tom Palleschi ’17 back in the mix (more on that later), the starting lineup is fairly solidified, but Pace has the potential to make a huge impact off of the bench. The 6’5″ combo guard brings great size to the backcourt, where he could be a defensive force. His skills are a mix between that of teammates Ferris, a double-double threat, and the sharpshooter Haladyna. He will have to battle classmate Thomas Lapham ’18, a true point guard, and returner Ryan Spadaford ’16 for bench minutes, but after a little over a week of practice Pace is pushing strongly for time.

Projected Starting Five:

Tarik Smith (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tarik Smith (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

G Tarik Smith ’17

Smith has big shoes to fill with distributor Oliver Cohen ’14 gone, but he is next level quick, shoots the ball well from deep and got plenty of seasoning under his belt last year (25 games, 18.8 minutes per game). Smith will have the ball in his hands to start most possessions.

 

 

Ben Ferris (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Ben Ferris (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

G Ben Ferris

Ferris, the 2011-12 NESCAC Rookie of the Year, is the undisputed leader on the floor for the Jumbos. The guard missed the first half of last season due to injury, and never got fully into the swing of things. Though he put up points and rebounds similar to what he achieved during his sophomore season, he was much less efficient from the floor. However, after undergoing hip surgery during the summer, reports are that Ferris is as healthy as ever and ready to take this team to the next level.

StephenHaladyna
Stephen Haladyna (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

G Stephen Haladyna

Of the starting five, Haladyna is the best long-range shooter, and he should get plenty of open shots off of passes from the two big men. He might be the fourth option on this offense, which is a scary thought for opposing teams.

 

 

 

Hunter Sabety (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Hunter Sabety (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

F Hunter Sabety

In the majority of seasons, Sabety would have been the hands down choice for Rookie of the Year after averaging 14.8 points per game (tops on the team) on 65 percent shooting and 6.6 boards per game. Unfortunately for Tufts, the hopes of a third straight ROY honor were dashed by Duncan Robinson. Sabety presents a huge matchup problem for almost every team in the league, and had stretches of dominance in 2013-14.

 

Tom Palleschi (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Tom Palleschi (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

F Tom Palleschi

Palleschi is the Jumbos’ X-factor, as well as the biggest question mark. He brings size and double-double potential to the front court. A heart condition held the big man out last season, and it’s an amazing story that he will even be on the court again. Palleschi is 100 percent cleared to play, but head coach Bob Sheldon, Jr. estimates that he has not quite returned to his former level of play just yet. That being said, Sheldon also expects the sophomore captain to return to form and be better than ever before long.

Everything Else:

The Jumbos were a sexy pick by some to make a surprise run at the NESCAC title last season, but the squad never got healthy at the same time. Ferris missed almost half the season, Haladyna was sidelined for a handful of games, and, of course, Palleschi never saw the floor. However, if Tufts can avoid the injury bug this season then they have a shot to realize those lofty expectations.

Expect the offense to work inside out on most possessions. It will be a challenge for Palleschi and Sabety, both 6’8″ and about 240 pounds, to mesh together, but if they do then their offensive potential is sky high. Expect a lot of high-low action from the big men, and open shots for the guards. Sabety brings more athleticism to the floor than Palleschi, so he might also be employed to run the base line while Palleschi works to get position inside.

Drew Madsen ’17 will be the primary reserve big man, and the aforementioned Pace and Spadaford should see a decent amount of minutes. The scoring should be spread out fairly evenly across the board, as every player in the starting five is strong offensively.

Look for the Jumbos to get better as the year goes along, as this group builds chemistry that is just now getting the opportunity to foster.