It’s Only Getting Better: Weekend Preview 10/12

Before we get down to it I just wanted to update everyone on the current standings for our writers picking the winners of every game. We’ve been fairly successful, although we still haven’t quite reached the exciting part of the year. Ryan is still the only one to have correctly predicted the final score of any game, as he picked Amherst 27-13 over Bates in Week 1. There’s still a lot of football left to play so we’ve got plenty more to come, but this is where we’re at as of now:

Matt Karpowicz: 16-4
Haven Cutko: 16-4
Ryan Moralejo: 16-4
Cameron Carlson: 15-5
Spencer Smead: 14-6

Colby @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

This weekend’s slate of games does not offer a ton of intrigue, and it doesn’t help that it includes this matchup of the hottest team in the league playing probably the coldest. Colby was the one CBB team to not finish within a touchdown of their opponent last week in a shutout loss against Williams. Colby’s defense, led by LB Marcus Bullard ’21 who is second in the league in tackles, actually held up pretty well. Only Middlebury has held the Ephs offense to fewer points this season and they forced Maimaron and company to go 2 of 9 on third down. Unfortunately, the offense could not reward their defense’s commendable play and failed to cash in on an advantage in time of possession. The Mules did not turn the ball over, but punted five times and missed two field goals. That’s just extremely uninspiring football. They will need to do better than 237 yards of total offense and especially focus on converting third downs if they expect to have a chance against a strong Middlebury defense. 

The strange thing about Midd’s wild win over Amherst last week was that both teams had clear opportunities deep in enemy territory to just kick a field goal and win, but neither of them could do it. Middlebury is obviously happy being undefeated no matter how they get there, but they have to be thankful that a traditionally-executing Amherst team decided to outdo Midd’s late game miscues with one of their own and help hand the Panthers the win. Middlebury has gotten by this year with strong all-around play more than big names, but RB Alex Maldijan ’23 deserves recognition for coming in as a freshman and putting up 125 yards and 2 TDs in the biggest game of his college career. He currently leads the NESCAC in rushing and will be a big part of Midd’s success for the next few years. Expect him to continue his success against a run defense that allowed 227 yards on the ground last weekend. QB Will Jernigan ’21 has also enjoyed a nice season so far; he made up for a big interception in the first overtime last week by leading the game winning TD drive in the second. Unless the Colby offense wakes up in Vermont on Saturday, don’t expect a close one.

SS: Middlebury 31, Colby 6 
HC: Middlebury 28, Colby 10 
MK: Middlebury 28, Colby 14
CC: Middlebury 35, Colby 10
RM: Middlebury 33, Colby 10

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Trinity @ Bates, 1pm, Lewiston, ME

Expect Bates to come out fired up for this one. They’re in the dirty Lew coming off their best offensive performance of the season in a close loss to Tufts, who allowed 20 fewer points to Trinity in week one than they did to the Bobcats. We finally got to see what QB Brendan Costa ’21 can do, as he completed 19 of 28 passes with a touchdown and also ran for 62 yards on the ground. RB Christian Sanfilippo ’21 made the most of his carries, getting 6 for 11 yards…with three touchdowns. Props to Christian, because you’d be hard pressed to find a league where the guy second in rushing touchdowns is 36th in yards. Fullback numbers at their finest! We will see if Bates’ performance is a fluke when they meet a Bantam defense allowing the fewest yards per game in the league. Trinity is also the only team to allow fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground, led by their strong linebacker unit of Sean Smerczynski ‘20, Brian Casagrande ‘22, and Daniel Negron ‘20. Look for guys like DE Jimmy Christiano ‘21 and S Matt McCarthy ‘21 to be making plays on Saturday as they have all season. 

It doesn’t make a lot of sense that Trinity is only 2-2 given that they have dominated in many of the game’s biggest statistics as always. QB Seamus Lambert ‘22 leads the league in passing yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns, showing that this offense is still as potent as any. On top of that, the Bantams still top the NESCAC in points and yards per game. Bates is also last in pass defense, and that doesn’t bode well coming into a matchup with the best receiving corps in the league. So while Bates may feel like they have a better chance than usual to beat Trinity for the first time since 1975, these cats need to understand that Trinity has been a few turnovers and penalties away from leading the pack as they almost always do. In addition, it’s looking like Trinity’s sophomores are forming the core of the team. Lambert, Casagrande, Devante Reid ’22, and others have a lot of football ahead of them, so don’t expect the Bantams to fall off very far from their usual dominance. Bates has reason to be feeling good about this weekend, but they just haven’t been consistent enough for this to be the year they snap the streak.

SS: Trinity 28, Bates 13
HC: Trinity 35, Bates 13
MK: Trinity 48, Bates 10
CC: Trinity 52, Bates 6
RM: Trinity 44, Bates 16

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Bowdoin @ Amherst, 1pm, Amherst, MA 

We’re still in the middle part of the season before the best teams and the worst teams start to play each other, and that leaves us with ho-hum matchups like this one. Both teams are coming off games in which a win was very much within reach. Amherst had a late lead and then squandered opportunities in crunch time to beat Middlebury in a classic, while Bowdoin opened some eyes by coming within a touchdown of undefeated Wesleyan. Polar Bears RB Nate Richam-Odoi ‘20 once again carried the offense, accounting for 177 of the team’s 282 total yards. He will need to have a similarly huge performance if Bowdoin wants to have any chance in this game. On the other hand, QB Austin McCrum ’21 has yet to really get going this season and that has really limited Bowdoin’s offensive capability. Amherst’s defense is likely going to focus on stuffing the talented Richam-Odoi, so McCrum should have some opportunities to connect with guys like Greg Olson ‘21 and Bo Millett ‘21 against a pass defense that’s surprisingly second to last in the league. Unfortunately for Bowdoin, their defense may have an even taller task this weekend as the unit that allows the most yards per game will need to figure out how to stop the lethal combo of Ollie Eberth and James O’Regan. 

Amherst has not been a terribly exciting team this season and they err more towards the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, but they make up for it by playing relatively mistake-free football. They are always disciplined and well-coached, so it was surprising to see them let the biggest game of the season slip away as they did last weekend. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore that they were that close to beating the championship front runner, so we have to assume that they will come out firing on their home turf and let Eberth go to work behind a traditionally strong O-line. DL Joe Kelly ’21 has stepped up and done a great job filling the void left by Andrew Yamin; he currently leads the league in solo tackles and sacks. He will help control Richam-Odoi and force Bowdoin to engage their pass game a bit more. I think Bowdoin’s close game last week exposed Wesleyan’s weaknesses more than it did Bowdoin’s strengths. Expect the Mammoths to get back on track at home.

SS: Amherst 28, Bowdoin 10
HC: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 7 
MK: Amherst 41, Bowdoin 6 
CC: Amherst 35, Bowdoin 6
RM: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 7

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Hamilton @ Williams, 2pm, Williamstown, MA

Williams has looked sharp since their opening week loss at Middlebury, winning the first three games of a five-game stretch in which they are home four times. It’s too bad that they don’t get another crack at Middlebury, because this is a team with the talent to run the table and definitely the chance to beat the Panthers in a future matchup. Alas, all the Ephs can do is take care of business and hope Midd falters. This week they face a Hamilton team that definitely looks improved, but still in their own tier above the CBB teams and below the teams competing for a title every year. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Hamilton did keep up with Trinity on the scoreboard until late, but Kenny Gray ’20 completed fewer than half his passes and RB David Kagan ’20 fell way off from his usual production this season and only managed 18 yards on 14 carries. That’s not going to get it done against the league’s top scoring defense. Given that Hamilton only managed 10 points against Wesleyan and that Williams shut out Colby last week, it’s hard to feel good about their offense on Saturday unless WR Joe Schmidt ’20 comes back and puts up big numbers. 

Williams’ offense did not have one of their better weeks last week, but you can’t blame Coach Raymond for once again taking a run-heavy approach a week after they totaled nearly 400 yards on the ground the week before. They wore Colby down with RBs Dan Vaughn ’22 and Joel Nicholas ’23 each getting 13 carries and averaging 8.5 and 7.1 yards on each carry, respectively. This offensive strategy has gotten Williams wins so far and it keeps Bobby Maimaron safe. Additionally, establishing the run game will open up holes for WR Frank Stola, who is in the OPOY running and leads the NESCAC in receiving yards and touchdowns. While Hamilton looks to be more competitive with non-CBB opponents thus far, their offense has not shown enough promise for anyone to feel good about their prospects against an Ephs defense allowing only 8.8 points per game. Williams has made a habit of finishing in the top 3 without a ring lately, and this season could be looking like more of the same. They could make a great case for the NESCAC to offer postseason play, but that’s a discussion for another day. 

SS: Williams 35, Hamilton 27
HC: Williams 31, Hamilton 10
MK: Williams 31, Hamilton 14 
CC: Williams 31, Hamilton 14
RM: Williams 37, Hamilton 20

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Tufts @ Wesleyan, 6pm, Middletown, CT

It’s fitting that the rare NESCAC night game is also our Game of the Week. The excitement of this game stems from the fact that includes probably the league’s two most perplexing teams thus far. Tufts has been wildly inconsistent, beating Trinity and playing Amherst close but also getting smoked by Williams and barely holding off a late game rally by Bates last weekend. Wesleyan is 4-0, but they have only played the league’s four worst teams and they did not do themselves any favors by only beating Bowdoin by a touchdown (the game was tied with 6 minutes left). That makes this game a tough one to pick- we don’t yet know what the result is when Wesleyan plays a good game against a good team. Another offensive weapon did emerge for the Cardinals, as RB Glenn Smith ’21 scampered for 108 yards and a big touchdown on a day where the talented young QB Ashton Scott ’22 did not have his best day. It’s yet to be determined whether or not kicker Mason Von Jess ’23 will be the next Eric Sachse or Steven Hauschka, but he has been a major special teams asset so far and his kicking ability could end up being a deciding factor in this game. 

Tufts’ offense needed to wake up at some point, and Bates’ horrid defense was their alarm clock. Coach Civetti made himself look like a genius with his two-QB offensive approach. Jacob Carroll ‘20 had a strong game with 223 yards and two touchdowns, and Trevon Woodson ’23 was a sharp 5-6 with another touchdown while also averaging 6.3 yards a carry on the ground. Implementing multiple quarterbacks frequently is a strategy prone to scrutinization, so we’ll see if that will be a pattern continuing this week or if Civetti felt he could experiment a little bit against lowly Bates. Wesleyan is not a defense you want to mess around against, especially with DL Taj Gooden ’21 back in the lineup. This is our Game of the Week so we will have additional coverage, but it should be a good one and everyone else in the league will have finished their games and be able to watch Wesleyan try to keep pace with Middlebury in the race for the title.

SS: Tufts 21, Wesleyan 20
HC: Wesleyan 28, Tufts 21 
MK: Wesleyan 24, Tufts 17
CC: Wesleyan 28, Tufts 14 
RM: Wesleyan 27, Tufts 16

Writers’ Pick: Wesleyan

Do We Have a Favorite Yet?: Week 3 Power Rankings

(1) 1. Middlebury

What’s Coach Ritter spiking the Gatorade with this season? Middlebury erased any suspicion that their opening win over Williams was a fluke by taking down another NESCAC heavyweight, three-time defending champion Trinity. What’s more impressive is that they did it mainly with great defense- and Middlebury has not been known for their defense in recent years. Nobody knows what’s going on with Trinity right now, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that the same unit that Seamus Lambert tore up last year intercepted him four times. QB Will Jernigan ’21 only completed 13 of 29 passes, but he ran for a touchdown and threw for another with no fumbles or interceptions. That turnover differential is a big reason why Middlebury pulled off the win. With all the momentum in the world, the Panthers have a golden opportunity to further justify their number 1 ranking with a win over Amherst this Saturday. 

(3) 2. Amherst (3-0) 

The Mammoths showed that their tusks were a little stronger with a nice win over the Tufts Jumbos. Amherst has not put up eye-popping numbers this year (all of their games have ended with pretty similar scores), but they earned some respect by beating a quality non-CBB opponent. They have been quietly playing sound football, relying on their veteran playmakers and committing few penalties and turnovers- they were only flagged three times for 20 yards against Tufts. WR James O’Regan ’20 continued to produce with 97 yards and a TD. It’s clear that he is QB Ollie Eberth’s favorite target, so it will be interesting to see which team (if any) will be able to shut him down this season. This week’s matchup with Middlebury will be Amherst’s biggest test yet by far. If they continue to play quality football and hold teams under 20 points, though, they will dethrone Midd and become the clear top dog. 

(5) 3. Wesleyan (3-0) 

Ashton Scott has been making a name for himself in his first year as a starter

I honestly ran through all the 2-1 and 1-2 teams in the league wondering which of them might deserve this 3 spot, because Wesleyan boasts easily the least impressive 3-0 slate with wins over Colby, Hamilton and Bates. On the other hand, all you can do is play the schedule you’re given and Wes has done that quite well so far. Unfortunately for anyone wondering how good this team actually is, they’re likely going to have the least impressive 4-0 record possible after a win over Bowdoin this week. And unfortunately for Wesleyan, they have all the best teams at the back end of their schedule. Sophomore QB Ashton Scott ’22 continued to impress, completing 14 of 20 passes and throwing for two TDs. The only reason he didn’t put up bigger numbers is because Wesleyan’s backups were in for most of the second half. He is a dual threat QB that will be fun to watch in the next few seasons. The defense has been the best in the league so far in terms of scoring, only allowing Bates 117 yards of total offense while forcing four turnovers last week. The Cardinals need to use this game to fine tune their offense and maybe give their stars some rest, because they won’t be getting any breaks after this week. 

(2) 4. Williams (2-1) 

Some may say this team deserves to be above Wesleyan, but their two wins are honestly not looking much more impressive than Wes’s three. Tufts has fallen off big time since week one, and nobody was surprised when the Ephs smoked Bowdoin 41-10 this past week. Williams did show that they could run the ball well in addition to throwing it, as they ran it 43 times for an absurd 398 yards. Bobby Maimaron ’21 only threw ten passes. I love this strategy by Coach Mark Raymond. Keep your star QB fresh and keep the clock moving; blowouts get boring for everyone and Bowdoin probably wanted to hop on the bus back to Maine by halftime. With Colby, Hamilton and Bates next on the schedule for the Ephs, we may see more of this ground attack approach. Williams is in good position to be in championship contention late in the season if they take care of business the next few weeks. 

(7) 5. Hamilton (2-1) 

This is where the rankings begin to get more complicated. I’m not sure I can confidently say that Hamilton could beat both Trinity and Tufts, but they’re getting the fifth spot because they seem to be the only team of the three trending in a positive direction right now. They technically also have much better championship prospects than Tufts and Trinity given their record. I’m not saying that anyone should put money on Hamilton to win it all, but they certainly separated themselves from the CBB tier this weekend in a 45-24 win over Colby. Ironically, Colby had more yards of total offense, but picking off three passes and going 8 for 14 on third down helped Hamilton to victory. QB Kenny Gray ’20 had another solid game, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. With strong special teams play and RB David Kagan ’20 leading the conference in rushing yards and touchdowns, Continental fans should be happy with how this season is progressing so far. They have a big test this weekend at Trinity in a game that they need to win to stay in title contention, but a win in this game is much more within reach for them than it has been in the past few years. 

(4) 6. Trinity (1-2)

I know they’re above a team they lost to in week 1, but it just doesn’t feel right putting Trinity so close to the CBB teams when they beat the only one they’ve played by 54. Nonetheless, 1-2 is not where anyone expected Trinity to be at this point in the season- they haven’t started a season 1-2 since 1995. This means that we will likely see a new NESCAC champion for the first time in three years, much to the excitement of everyone not in Hartford. QB Seamus Lambert ’22 leads the league in passing yards, so the Bantams’ terrific WRs have continued to produce, but he has also been sacked the most and is second in interceptions due to 4 in the loss to Middlebury. On top of that, Trinity was flagged for over 100 yards and RB Spencer Lockwood ’22 was not at the Middlebury game and is nowhere to be seen on campus. Lack of a run game, poor offensive line/quarterback play, and penalties have hurt the Bantams in their two losses. We know this team can probably still beat anyone, but this just isn’t their year so far. Having said that, three championships in four years is something other NESCAC players can only dream of, and the Bantams should still be a factor in determining who wins the title this year. A win over Hamilton at home this weekend will certainly propel Trinity over the Continentals in our rankings. 

(6) 7. Tufts (1-2)

Things haven’t been quite as smooth for Jacob Carroll and the Jumbos since their Week 1 win over Trinity

It’s looking like Tufts’ opening week win over Trinity has more to do with Trinity being down than Tufts being up. In fact, the Jumbos have had a brutal fall from grace since that week. Their offense is second to last in scoring, ranking above only Bates. We saw Jacob Carroll ’20 instead of Travon Woodson ’23 under center last week against Amherst, and he threw for 305 yards…but like Seamus Lambert, he was bit by the interception bug with three. This helped Amherst dominate time of possession and tire the Jumbos’ defense out. Tufts also has not been able to establish a run game this season, and they certainly needed one to beat Amherst. This team has a prime chance to get back on track when they pay Bates a visit in Lewiston; we should get to see who will emerge as the playmakers on both sides of the ball besides their usual standouts in WR OJ Armstrong ’21 and LB Greg Holt ’20. Still, you have to wonder why an 11,000 student university with Tufts’ location and resources has isn’t competing for a championship more often. 

(8) 8. Colby (0-3) 

It’s been a disappointing year in Waterville, both because people expected Colby to take a step forward this year and because the NESCAC is more exciting when the CBB teams can compete. Unfortunately, this gap between the CBB and everyone else got wider this past weekend when the Mules got thrashed by Hamilton. Last week was clearly a big week for interceptions, because Matt Hersch was the third quarterback to throw at least three of them. Although being 0-3 is never good, there are select individual performances the Mules should be happy with. Hersch (only a sophomore) is second in the league in passing yards per game, LB Marcus Bullard ’21 leads the league in tackles, and Chris George ’20 has been a decent replacement for Jake Schwern ’19 at running back. Colby has to step it up big time if they want to be competitive in any of their next three games- Williams, Middlebury, and Trinity. Sheesh!

(9) 9. Bates (0-3) 

You never want to be playing your worst football heading into the toughest part of your schedule, but unfortunately that’s the situation Bates finds themselves in after catching a 48-12 shellacking from Wesleyan in a game that really wasn’t that close. They’re playing far from full strength as their top two quarterbacks were both injured, but 117 yards of offense is pitiful no matter how you slice it. There really isn’t a lot of good to draw from their season so far, as they’ve put up the lowest point total in the league and allowed more than everyone except Bowdoin. Hopefully we will see QB Brendan Costa ’21 or at least backup Jack Bryant ’22 soon, or things will only continue to spiral downhill as they have since leading Amherst at the half in their opener. Nobody is expecting Bates to win any of their next three games against Tufts, Trinity and Williams, but if they get their QB back they should be playing some more exciting games in their last three. 

(10) 10. Bowdoin (0-3)

Admissions needs to loosen up in Brunswick, because the good people of Bowdoin deserve a better football team than what they have had to watch the past few years. One would think that a beautiful new football field and locker rooms would attract more talent, but we have yet to see the return on this investment on Saturdays. Bowdoin laid another egg last week in Williamstown, allowing the Ephs nearly 500 yards of offense. They did have two offensive standouts as RB Nate Richam ’20 managed 105 yards and a score and tight end Bo Millett ’21 passed the century mark in yards as well. Bowdoin should be thankful for these guys because frankly, they deserve to be on better teams. A team will only go as far as their QB takes them, so Bowdoin’s current situation makes sense given that Austin McCrum ’21 has twice as many picks than touchdowns this season and went 16 for 36 last week. Bowdoin is a great school with nice facilities, so it’s on new coach BJ Hammer to start bringing in better recruiting classes and actually show some results with this rebuild that Bowdoin has been trying to accomplish for years.