It’s Only Getting Better: Weekend Preview 10/12

Before we get down to it I just wanted to update everyone on the current standings for our writers picking the winners of every game. We’ve been fairly successful, although we still haven’t quite reached the exciting part of the year. Ryan is still the only one to have correctly predicted the final score of any game, as he picked Amherst 27-13 over Bates in Week 1. There’s still a lot of football left to play so we’ve got plenty more to come, but this is where we’re at as of now:

Matt Karpowicz: 16-4
Haven Cutko: 16-4
Ryan Moralejo: 16-4
Cameron Carlson: 15-5
Spencer Smead: 14-6

Colby @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

This weekend’s slate of games does not offer a ton of intrigue, and it doesn’t help that it includes this matchup of the hottest team in the league playing probably the coldest. Colby was the one CBB team to not finish within a touchdown of their opponent last week in a shutout loss against Williams. Colby’s defense, led by LB Marcus Bullard ’21 who is second in the league in tackles, actually held up pretty well. Only Middlebury has held the Ephs offense to fewer points this season and they forced Maimaron and company to go 2 of 9 on third down. Unfortunately, the offense could not reward their defense’s commendable play and failed to cash in on an advantage in time of possession. The Mules did not turn the ball over, but punted five times and missed two field goals. That’s just extremely uninspiring football. They will need to do better than 237 yards of total offense and especially focus on converting third downs if they expect to have a chance against a strong Middlebury defense. 

The strange thing about Midd’s wild win over Amherst last week was that both teams had clear opportunities deep in enemy territory to just kick a field goal and win, but neither of them could do it. Middlebury is obviously happy being undefeated no matter how they get there, but they have to be thankful that a traditionally-executing Amherst team decided to outdo Midd’s late game miscues with one of their own and help hand the Panthers the win. Middlebury has gotten by this year with strong all-around play more than big names, but RB Alex Maldijan ’23 deserves recognition for coming in as a freshman and putting up 125 yards and 2 TDs in the biggest game of his college career. He currently leads the NESCAC in rushing and will be a big part of Midd’s success for the next few years. Expect him to continue his success against a run defense that allowed 227 yards on the ground last weekend. QB Will Jernigan ’21 has also enjoyed a nice season so far; he made up for a big interception in the first overtime last week by leading the game winning TD drive in the second. Unless the Colby offense wakes up in Vermont on Saturday, don’t expect a close one.

SS: Middlebury 31, Colby 6 
HC: Middlebury 28, Colby 10 
MK: Middlebury 28, Colby 14
CC: Middlebury 35, Colby 10
RM: Middlebury 33, Colby 10

Writers’ Pick: Middlebury

Trinity @ Bates, 1pm, Lewiston, ME

Expect Bates to come out fired up for this one. They’re in the dirty Lew coming off their best offensive performance of the season in a close loss to Tufts, who allowed 20 fewer points to Trinity in week one than they did to the Bobcats. We finally got to see what QB Brendan Costa ’21 can do, as he completed 19 of 28 passes with a touchdown and also ran for 62 yards on the ground. RB Christian Sanfilippo ’21 made the most of his carries, getting 6 for 11 yards…with three touchdowns. Props to Christian, because you’d be hard pressed to find a league where the guy second in rushing touchdowns is 36th in yards. Fullback numbers at their finest! We will see if Bates’ performance is a fluke when they meet a Bantam defense allowing the fewest yards per game in the league. Trinity is also the only team to allow fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground, led by their strong linebacker unit of Sean Smerczynski ‘20, Brian Casagrande ‘22, and Daniel Negron ‘20. Look for guys like DE Jimmy Christiano ‘21 and S Matt McCarthy ‘21 to be making plays on Saturday as they have all season. 

It doesn’t make a lot of sense that Trinity is only 2-2 given that they have dominated in many of the game’s biggest statistics as always. QB Seamus Lambert ‘22 leads the league in passing yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns, showing that this offense is still as potent as any. On top of that, the Bantams still top the NESCAC in points and yards per game. Bates is also last in pass defense, and that doesn’t bode well coming into a matchup with the best receiving corps in the league. So while Bates may feel like they have a better chance than usual to beat Trinity for the first time since 1975, these cats need to understand that Trinity has been a few turnovers and penalties away from leading the pack as they almost always do. In addition, it’s looking like Trinity’s sophomores are forming the core of the team. Lambert, Casagrande, Devante Reid ’22, and others have a lot of football ahead of them, so don’t expect the Bantams to fall off very far from their usual dominance. Bates has reason to be feeling good about this weekend, but they just haven’t been consistent enough for this to be the year they snap the streak.

SS: Trinity 28, Bates 13
HC: Trinity 35, Bates 13
MK: Trinity 48, Bates 10
CC: Trinity 52, Bates 6
RM: Trinity 44, Bates 16

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Bowdoin @ Amherst, 1pm, Amherst, MA 

We’re still in the middle part of the season before the best teams and the worst teams start to play each other, and that leaves us with ho-hum matchups like this one. Both teams are coming off games in which a win was very much within reach. Amherst had a late lead and then squandered opportunities in crunch time to beat Middlebury in a classic, while Bowdoin opened some eyes by coming within a touchdown of undefeated Wesleyan. Polar Bears RB Nate Richam-Odoi ‘20 once again carried the offense, accounting for 177 of the team’s 282 total yards. He will need to have a similarly huge performance if Bowdoin wants to have any chance in this game. On the other hand, QB Austin McCrum ’21 has yet to really get going this season and that has really limited Bowdoin’s offensive capability. Amherst’s defense is likely going to focus on stuffing the talented Richam-Odoi, so McCrum should have some opportunities to connect with guys like Greg Olson ‘21 and Bo Millett ‘21 against a pass defense that’s surprisingly second to last in the league. Unfortunately for Bowdoin, their defense may have an even taller task this weekend as the unit that allows the most yards per game will need to figure out how to stop the lethal combo of Ollie Eberth and James O’Regan. 

Amherst has not been a terribly exciting team this season and they err more towards the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, but they make up for it by playing relatively mistake-free football. They are always disciplined and well-coached, so it was surprising to see them let the biggest game of the season slip away as they did last weekend. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore that they were that close to beating the championship front runner, so we have to assume that they will come out firing on their home turf and let Eberth go to work behind a traditionally strong O-line. DL Joe Kelly ’21 has stepped up and done a great job filling the void left by Andrew Yamin; he currently leads the league in solo tackles and sacks. He will help control Richam-Odoi and force Bowdoin to engage their pass game a bit more. I think Bowdoin’s close game last week exposed Wesleyan’s weaknesses more than it did Bowdoin’s strengths. Expect the Mammoths to get back on track at home.

SS: Amherst 28, Bowdoin 10
HC: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 7 
MK: Amherst 41, Bowdoin 6 
CC: Amherst 35, Bowdoin 6
RM: Amherst 27, Bowdoin 7

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Hamilton @ Williams, 2pm, Williamstown, MA

Williams has looked sharp since their opening week loss at Middlebury, winning the first three games of a five-game stretch in which they are home four times. It’s too bad that they don’t get another crack at Middlebury, because this is a team with the talent to run the table and definitely the chance to beat the Panthers in a future matchup. Alas, all the Ephs can do is take care of business and hope Midd falters. This week they face a Hamilton team that definitely looks improved, but still in their own tier above the CBB teams and below the teams competing for a title every year. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Hamilton did keep up with Trinity on the scoreboard until late, but Kenny Gray ’20 completed fewer than half his passes and RB David Kagan ’20 fell way off from his usual production this season and only managed 18 yards on 14 carries. That’s not going to get it done against the league’s top scoring defense. Given that Hamilton only managed 10 points against Wesleyan and that Williams shut out Colby last week, it’s hard to feel good about their offense on Saturday unless WR Joe Schmidt ’20 comes back and puts up big numbers. 

Williams’ offense did not have one of their better weeks last week, but you can’t blame Coach Raymond for once again taking a run-heavy approach a week after they totaled nearly 400 yards on the ground the week before. They wore Colby down with RBs Dan Vaughn ’22 and Joel Nicholas ’23 each getting 13 carries and averaging 8.5 and 7.1 yards on each carry, respectively. This offensive strategy has gotten Williams wins so far and it keeps Bobby Maimaron safe. Additionally, establishing the run game will open up holes for WR Frank Stola, who is in the OPOY running and leads the NESCAC in receiving yards and touchdowns. While Hamilton looks to be more competitive with non-CBB opponents thus far, their offense has not shown enough promise for anyone to feel good about their prospects against an Ephs defense allowing only 8.8 points per game. Williams has made a habit of finishing in the top 3 without a ring lately, and this season could be looking like more of the same. They could make a great case for the NESCAC to offer postseason play, but that’s a discussion for another day. 

SS: Williams 35, Hamilton 27
HC: Williams 31, Hamilton 10
MK: Williams 31, Hamilton 14 
CC: Williams 31, Hamilton 14
RM: Williams 37, Hamilton 20

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Tufts @ Wesleyan, 6pm, Middletown, CT

It’s fitting that the rare NESCAC night game is also our Game of the Week. The excitement of this game stems from the fact that includes probably the league’s two most perplexing teams thus far. Tufts has been wildly inconsistent, beating Trinity and playing Amherst close but also getting smoked by Williams and barely holding off a late game rally by Bates last weekend. Wesleyan is 4-0, but they have only played the league’s four worst teams and they did not do themselves any favors by only beating Bowdoin by a touchdown (the game was tied with 6 minutes left). That makes this game a tough one to pick- we don’t yet know what the result is when Wesleyan plays a good game against a good team. Another offensive weapon did emerge for the Cardinals, as RB Glenn Smith ’21 scampered for 108 yards and a big touchdown on a day where the talented young QB Ashton Scott ’22 did not have his best day. It’s yet to be determined whether or not kicker Mason Von Jess ’23 will be the next Eric Sachse or Steven Hauschka, but he has been a major special teams asset so far and his kicking ability could end up being a deciding factor in this game. 

Tufts’ offense needed to wake up at some point, and Bates’ horrid defense was their alarm clock. Coach Civetti made himself look like a genius with his two-QB offensive approach. Jacob Carroll ‘20 had a strong game with 223 yards and two touchdowns, and Trevon Woodson ’23 was a sharp 5-6 with another touchdown while also averaging 6.3 yards a carry on the ground. Implementing multiple quarterbacks frequently is a strategy prone to scrutinization, so we’ll see if that will be a pattern continuing this week or if Civetti felt he could experiment a little bit against lowly Bates. Wesleyan is not a defense you want to mess around against, especially with DL Taj Gooden ’21 back in the lineup. This is our Game of the Week so we will have additional coverage, but it should be a good one and everyone else in the league will have finished their games and be able to watch Wesleyan try to keep pace with Middlebury in the race for the title.

SS: Tufts 21, Wesleyan 20
HC: Wesleyan 28, Tufts 21 
MK: Wesleyan 24, Tufts 17
CC: Wesleyan 28, Tufts 14 
RM: Wesleyan 27, Tufts 16

Writers’ Pick: Wesleyan

Middlebury, Vermont – Title Town?: Stock Report 10/9

Unless you live under a rock you probably heard something about the epic, double-overtime Middlebury-Amherst game on Saturday. Fortunately for those of you that do live under a rock, I’m going to talk a little bit more about it. This football game was an absolute classic. The Panthers raced out to a 21-0 lead before the end of the first quarter and when I saw that I thought it was going to get ugly in a hurry. Apparently I forgot that the Mammoths don’t fold because before I knew it Amherst held a 28-21 lead and had possession of the ball with 10 minutes left to play. This is when the game really started to live up to the hype (much of which was created by us). The Middlebury defense forced a 3 and out and just a few plays into the subsequent drive, Will Jernigan ’21 connected with Greg Livingston ’20 for a 54 yard touchdown to even things up with 6 minutes left.

After the Mammoths couldn’t get anything going on the other end, Jernigan orchestrated a 9-play, 2 and a half-minute drive to put the Panthers on the Amherst 10-yard line with 33 seconds left to play. You’d think that with the game tied at this point Middlebury would run the ball a few times and then kick a field goal as time expired – particularly because their running back, Alex Maldjian ’23, was having a career day. Instead, the Panthers went with the Pete Carroll strategy from Super Bowl XLIX and they passed the ball. Those up in Vermont must not have remembered how that worked out for the Seahawks, because Jernigan had his next pass picked off by John Ballard ’20 at the goal line to send it to overtime.

Middlebury received the ball first in overtime looking to redeem themselves and Jernigan was intercepted, again, on the second play of the drive. This put Amherst in essentially the same position that the Panthers were in at the very end of the game – you’re already in field goal range, so just be careful with the ball for a few plays then kick a field goal and go home. If only it were that easy. On a 3rd and 10 play, Eberth took a shot towards the end zone and was picked off by Finn Muldoon ’23, sending the game into double overtime. Absolutely bananas.

This time the Mammoths got the ball first and didn’t put much together, but they were finally able to kick that elusive field goal to take a 31-28 lead. On 3rd and 5 from the Amherst 20, Jernigan found Maxwell Rye ’20 for a 7-yard completion and a first down, avoiding kicking a field goal to force a third overtime. The Amherst defense stayed tough and forced another 3rd and long, but Jernigan made a big-time play and found Maxwell Rye ’20 again, this time in the end zone to secure the win (and potentially a NESCAC Championship) for the Panthers.

I know it’s easy to find out everything you just read by looking at the box scores and reading the recaps from each team’s website, but those don’t give you the human element. This was the type of game that every player on both of these teams will remember forever. This was historically two of the best teams in the NESCAC battling it out like great teams do for the right to take home a trophy. That’s the type of game this was; it felt like a championship game. NESCAC sports are special because of games like this one and, as you’ll read more about below, it likely will be the championship game barring an unexpected collapse by the Panthers.

Stock up

Middlebury’s Title Chances

No reason to wait around here – the Panthers have put themselves in the driver’s seat for the NESCAC Championship. They’ve now taken down Trinity, Williams, and Amherst who are three of the top four other teams in the league. This means that even if they lose a game they still hold the tiebreaker over each of these squads and that is absolutely huge. The most obvious challenger is undefeated Wesleyan, but keep in mind that Wesleyan’s four wins have come against Colby, Hamilton, Bates, and Bowdoin so they literally have to play the five best teams in the conference over their last five games. Now I’m not saying that the Cardinals aren’t going to win all five, but they ha– actually I am saying that they aren’t going to win all five. In fact, I’d be surprised if they even won three. The league is Middlebury’s to lose at this point so stay tuned to find out if they pull an ’04 Yankees on us.

League Entertainment Value

Looking at the slate of games heading into this weekend, it didn’t look like we were in for very much excitement. Aside from Amherst-Middlebury every game featured a team traditionally found at the top half of the league versus a team traditionally at the bottom. I’ll be honest, I was expecting several blowouts. I was very happy to find out that I was wrong, because every game besides Williams-Colby ended up as one-score games in the fourth quarter with the trailing team possessing the ball. Bates, Hamilton, and Bowdoin all had chances to lead game winning or game-tying drives against Tufts, Trinity, and Wesleyan, respectively. At the end of the day these games were all won by the favorites, but if we’re going to have such blatant imbalances in the standings then at least it’s nice to have that little bit of hope that the underdog might win, right? If nothing else it keeps fans in the stands until the end of the game… 

Bates Offense

Likely the biggest surprise of the weekend came from the Bobcat offense who came into the league last in most statistical categories. It also didn’t seem favorable that they were matched up against the Jumbo defense that had only allowed 8 points to the NESCAC’s top scoring offense. Apparently this didn’t faze the young Bates offense, because they came out firing. Brendan Costa ’21 was throwing the ball all over the field, connecting with 7 different receivers en route to his first 200-yard game of the season. Their goal line touches were dominated by fantasy vulture Christian Sanfilippo ’21, who had 6 carries for 11 yards and 3 touchdowns. Talk about getting your 19 fantasy points the hard way. This was the first time all year that Bates looked like they could really put solid drives together using both the run and the pass, which is a serious improvement. They had to go 88 yards in 90 seconds to cap off a 19-point comeback and were ultimately unsuccessful, but this looked like a completely different unit on Saturday. We’ll see if the improvements are enough to take down the Trinity Bantams for the first time since 1979.

Stock down

Bantam Dynasty

I’ll be honest I’ve been really excited to write this stock down for a while now, but I wanted to wait until it was the right time. Now feels like a good enough time for me. Trinity is still one of the best teams in the league, so this speaks more to how good they have been over the last three years than to their struggles this season. Prior to this season this year’s senior class had a 24-2 career record with three NESCAC Championships. That’s dominant. Through four games this season they already have two losses and really haven’t looked like the same team at all. They did what they should have done against Bowdoin, but their showing against a much weaker Hamilton team was not the Bantam football that we’re accustomed to seeing. Again, I don’t mean to say that we won’t see another NESCAC Championship trophy make its way to Hartford in the near future, but the time has come that we can officially say that Trinity is not the best team in the conference. They won’t win the conference championship this year and their ridiculous run, for now, is over. Finally it’s someone else’s turn.

Amherst Offense

If Middlebury had lost to Amherst, they probably would’ve found themselves in the stock down category as well. The Mammoths should have won that game for a number of different reasons, the most obvious of which is the fact that they had the ball on Middlebury’s 25-yard line in overtime, only needing a field goal to win it. Are you kidding me? Granted Middlebury blew it at the end of regulation, but shouldn’t that have taught them how to handle the exact same situation less than 20 minutes later? I don’t want to put the whole thing on QB Ollie Eberth ’20, but throwing 4 picks certainly isn’t the way I would go about winning a championship. Including overtime, the Mammoths possessed the ball for 50 minutes, compared to just 25 for Middlebury. Let that sink in. Amherst had the ball for twice as long as the Panthers and still lost. All the Mammoths can do now is focus on the next game and hope things fall their way. It’s an uphill battle from here. 

Only One Way From Here: Bates Football Preview 2019

2018 Record: 0-9

2019 Projected Record: 1-8

Projected offensive starters (*8 returning)

QB – Brendan Costa ’21*

RB – Jaason Lopez ’21*

RB – Liam Spillane ’21*

WR – Christian Olivieri ’22

WR – Jackson Hayes ’22*

TE – Isaiah Saunders ’21

C – Jack O’Brien ’20*

LG – Phil Simplicio ’20*

LT – Matt Flanagan ’20*

RG – Nick Florio ’22

RT – Julian Nicolas ’21*

Projected defensive starters (*8 returning)

DB – Jon Lindgren ’20*

DB – Connor Hunt ’21*

CB – Devin Clyburn ’21*

CB – Owen Straley ’22

ILB – Pete Daley ’20*

ILB – Zach Doyon ’20*

OLB – Mike Bulman ’21*

OLB – Liam Greene ’21*

DL – Ramon Ruiz ’21*

DL – Shane Collins ’21*

DL – Jack Ryan ’22

Projected specialists (*2 returning)

K – Simon Redfern ’22

P – Tyler Bridge ’23

KR/PR – Milan Lemon ’21*/Jon Lindgren ’20*

Offensive MVP: RB Jaason Lopez ’21

The Bobcats made the switch last season from the triple option to the spread, moving away from the run game to favor the pass. This change, in fact, moved Bates from first in the NESCAC in rushing yards in 2017 to last in the league in rushing yards in 2018. This is quite a dramatic change – and serves to show that in order to throw the ball you have to be able to run it, too. Lopez saw some action as a freshman in 2017 and did not disappoint, posting a season total of 98 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on just 13 carries, while catching 15 passes for a team-high 288 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Last year Lopez saw action in just 2 games while battling injury and not getting a ton of touches. The junior is finally healthy this year and is ready to lead a strong and experienced backfield coming off a down year on the ground. If Lopez can have a breakout year then it will give Coach Patterson an entirely new tool to work with on offense in just his second year with the team.

Defensive MVP: DB Jon Lindgren ’20

Last year I wrote all about how Lindgren got snubbed from the 2017 All-Conference teams despite leading the league (by a large margin) in pass break ups and being top-10 in tackles. Well he followed that up with another outstanding year in which he led the league in solo and total tackles and finally received the All-NESCAC recognition that he deserved (we can talk about how he should have been first team instead of second team another time). The senior captain has improved every year and will lead a relatively experienced Bobcat defense in its second season under Coach Hall. Last year the defense had several games in which they played very well in the first half but spent too much time on the field and were overwhelmed by fatigue late in the second half. With that experience under their belt and some help from the offense, this unit is poised to have a much-improved year. That certainly won’t happen without Lindgren leading the way.

Biggest Game: November 2nd, 5:30pm vs. Bowdoin

When you go winless one year, it’s hard to argue that your biggest game the following season isn’t against the team that only won one game the prior year. It’s also no secret that the CBB games are particularly important to the Maine schools, so Bowdoin checks both of these boxes. Throw in the fact that it’s their only night game of the season and it’s at home late in the year and this one is definitely a winner. Bates had a few close games last year and even led at halftime on several occasions, but if they can’t beat the team that finished one place ahead of them a year ago then it’ll be very difficult to get out of the cellar in 2019.

Best Tweet:

This is a quality tweet because it shows not only that the Bates football coaching staff knows what GIFs are, but that they know how to use them correctly. It’s always exciting to land a prized recruit, particularly one from a historically successful football state like New Hampshire.

Everything Else:

Coach Hall and the rest of the coaching staff got their feet wet in NESCAC football last year during their first season in Lewiston. An 0-9 season is not what they were hoping for but hey, there’s nowhere to go but up right? They now have a their first official recruiting class on campus and they’re familiar with the ins and outs of the 9-game NESCAC season. Fortunately they return lots of key personnel on both sides of the ball, as well. Brendan Costa ’21 returns under center behind an offensive line that has quite a bit of experience under its belt. In fact, the starting five offensive linemen have played in a combined 62 games in their careers, so experience is certainly not an issue. Costa has a number of receivers to throw to, including sophomores Jackson Hayes ’22, Christian Olivieri ’22, and Derek Marino ’22, juniors Isaiah Saunders ’21, Parker Smith ’21, and potentially any of the exciting freshmen that Coach Hall brought to Lewiston in his first recruiting class. They even have a sneaky red zone threat in RB Christian Sanfilippo ’21 to work with as well.

There’s work to be done, but things are looking promising in Lewiston

On the other side of the ball the Bobcats return one of the best safeties in the league in Jon Lindgren ’20, but they also return Devin Clyburn ’21 and Connor Hunt ’21 in the secondary as well. At linebacker they bring back 5th year senior Pete Daley ’20, Zach Doyon ’20, David Campbell ’21, Mike Bulman ’21, and Liam Greene ’21, while Ramon Ruiz ’21 headlines a mostly-returning defensive line as well. It’s clear that there is a plethora of age and experience in this lineup. These guys have almost all been through two or three full seasons of college football, so they know the grind. The coaching staff is settled in and they have a battle-tested lineup so all the pieces are in place for a turnaround from last year. There are definitely opponents on their schedule that they can beat and they showed flashes of what they were capable of last season, but we’ll have to wait and see if they can put it together for 60 minutes to get back in the win column.