This is a really interesting game because even this early in the season there’s a real chance that this ends up deciding the NESCAC Championship. Middlebury has already beaten Trinity and Williams; two of the three teams that I thought had the best title chances coming into the season (Amherst being the third). They still have to play Wesleyan who has looked very good, but aside from them it’s Hamilton, Bowdoin, Colby, and Tufts who hasn’t looked all that great either. Amherst still has the bulk of their schedule remaining but Amherst is Amherst and I’ll be damned if I rule out the Mammoths. There’s a lot to be said about this game, so let’s get down to it.
Key #1 for Middlebury: Hold On to the Ball
This one is pretty straightforward, but the Panthers lead the NESCAC with 7 fumbles thus far and while they may have only lost 3 of those, ball security will have to be a big focus heading into this weekend. This will be especially true because Amherst has recovered 5 fumbles this year, the best mark in the league. It’s going to come down to the guys who have the ball consistently – RB Alex Maldjian ’23 and QB Will Jernigan ’21. Maldjian has already found himself a spot as the team’s starting running back and he’s really the only guy that gets any touches out of the backfield for them. The problem is that he already has 2 fumbles on the year and Jernigan has 3, so these guys in particular will need to lock in on holding on to the ball.
Key #2 for Middlebury: Pocket Awareness
Again, this one is pretty much on Jernigan. The Mammoths have one of the best defensive lines in the league, and they get to the quarterback very quickly. Jernigan has started to earn his money as a passer this year, but he won’t have as much time to survey the field this Saturday so we’ll get a chance to see what his instincts are. Last year he was very much a run-first quarterback so it’ll be interesting to see which Will Jernigan comes out when there are two Amherst defensive ends barreling at him. His two key playmakers to throw to have been receiver Maxwell Rye ’20 and tight end Frank Cosolito ’20, so he’ll likely look to them when the play collapses. If Jernigan can stay composed when all hell breaks loose then I like Middlebury’s chances a lot at Amherst this weekend.
Key #1 for Amherst: Red Zone Efficiency
This is a big one. The Mammoths have only scored 5 times on 13 trips (only 3 touchdowns) to the red zone through 3 games, the second lowest rate in the NESCAC. This is especially troubling because their first 2 games came against Bates and Colby – two of the weakest defenses in the conference. There’s a chance that this could be because they haven’t really seemed to have a consistent running back, it has really been a committee in the backfield so far. Out wide Amherst only has about 2½ receivers that you really have to worry about, so it seems like teams have just keyed in on those few guys when they get deep in their own territory. This also brings me to my next point…
Key #2 for Amherst: Finding a Third Offensive Threat
To the untrained eye this seems like one of the most glaring problems for the Mammoths this year. Eberth has success throwing the ball and he also leads the team in rushing, so it’s no question that he’s a huge threat. He also loves throwing to WR James O’Regan ’20, who has nearly half of the team’s receptions and more than half of their receiving touchdowns on the year. Aside from these two guys it’s sort of a mystery who Amherst will rely on. Luke Mallette ’20 is clearly Eberth’s second favorite target, but it’s a far cry from the relationship that Eberth has with O’Regan. Louie Eckelkamp ’23 has the most carries and yards out of the backfield, but the carries have been pretty divided among a few different guys. In order to beat Middlebury they’ll need more guys to step up on offense because this isn’t like the defenses they were seeing up in Maine.
Everything Else:
On paper this looks about as even as a matchup can get. Statistically speaking, Amherst and Middlebury are within one place of each other in nearly every major category on both sides of the ball. These are teams that have had success in the past and are perennially the class of the NESCAC. Both teams are trying to replace key pieces lost from last year’s squad, but they also each return a good portion of their starting lineups as well. Will Jernigan ’21 looks like he spent his summer learning how to play quarterback because he looks nothing like last year’s Will Jernigan whose gut instinct was running a QB power. The transformation that he has gone through along with Middlebury’s talented offensive playmakers make this offense incredibly difficult to stop, and I’m not sure that Amherst is quite ready for a team of this caliber. It seems as though the Mammoths have a bit more to replace from last year and I think that allows the Panthers to come into town and steal a win.
The inaugural week of the NESCAC football season was one of the more unpredictable and exciting weeks of football we’ve had in quite some time. Trinity losing on the opening week? Check. Trinity somehow not scoring double digits? Check. Multiple first-time starting quarterbacks impressing in their debut? Yup. A game-winning drive with well under a minute on the clock to ensure an upset? You got it. Once the dust settled, behemoths Trinity and Williams found themselves in the cellar of the conference standings, essentially needing to win out in order to get back in the race for the NESCAC Championship. This week’s slate features some important matchups with title implications, and a few trap games in which relatively large favorites will have to hit the road for the first time this season. Let’s get right into it.
Amherst (1-0) @ Colby (0-1), 1 pm, Waterville, ME
It wasn’t pretty, but the Mammoths found a way to take down the Bobcats after trailing at the half for the second consecutive season. Quarterback Ollie Eberth ‘20 connected with his favorite target James O’Regan ‘20 (five receptions for 140 yards) early and often, including a pair of 40+ yard touchdown passes. Eberth’s passing efficiency was slightly alarming considering the senior completed less than fifty percent of his passes; nonetheless, he finished with 234 yards through the air and another 68 on the ground, which isn’t too shabby for an opener. Along with O’Regan, Luke Mallette ‘20 caught five passes for 49 yards and sophomore tailback Brandon Huff ‘22 emerged as a solid receiving option out of the backfield, snagging three receptions for 43 yards. On the defensive side, the Mammoths came out a little sluggish but locked things down in the second half, shutting out the Bobcats for the remainder of the game. Defensive backs Matt Durburow ‘21 and John Ballard ‘20 combined for 20 tackles, and Joe Kelly ‘21 brought the heat on the defensive line with seven tackles and a forced fumble. More impressively, sophomore linebackers Matt Schiano ‘22 and John Schiano ‘22 answered any questions about the uncertainty at the position entering the season, combining for 14 tackles (2.5 tackles for loss) and 1.5 sacks.
Many (including myself) expected Colby to compete with Wesleyan this past Saturday, but the defense looked like swiss cheese against a sophomore quarterback making his first career start. The Mules D’ allowed a porous 454 yards in their opener, and failed to generate any sort of pressure for the entirety of the game. The run defense was especially pitiful as the Cardinals gashed their way to 237 total rushing yards at around 6 yards per carry. That’s not good news considering the Mammoths averaged 4.5 yards per carry against a much more stout Bobcat defensive line. One bright spot for the Mules was senior running back Chris George ‘20; the first-year starter totaled 104 yards on 18 carries, and the Mules should make it a priority to feed their tailback in order to make life easier for quarterback Matt Hersch ‘22.
Amherst improves to 2-0 as they total over 225 yards on the ground and catch the Mules secondary napping with some deep shots to O’Regan.
Not many people knew what to expect of sophomore quarterback Ashton Scott ‘22 considering he did not complete a pass his freshman season, but boy is he on every single NESCAC coaches’ radar after his performance against the Mules. Scott threw for 217 yards with three touchdowns and added 76 yards on the ground on just 13 rushing attempts, one of the best performances from the quarterback position of the week. A multitude of sophomores contributed in the offensive onslaught against Colby, including a pair of running backs in Charlie McPhee ‘22 (nine carries for 53 yards along with four receptions) and David Estevez ‘22 (ten carries for 54 yards). Ten different Cardinals caught a pass from Scott, led by Matthew Simco ‘22 (4 rec, 65 yds, TD) and Delando Clarke ‘21 (3 rec, 59 yds, 2 TD’s). Scott’s arm might be asked to do more this time around against Hamilton, who stifled Bowdoin’s ground game and held them to under 100 yards rushing. Linebacker Carmine Bruno ‘20 made plays all over the field with a whopping 15 tackles (two TFL), and defensive lineman James Ball ‘21 registered 1.5 sacks. Running back David Kagan ‘20 exploded against the Polar Bears to a tune of 195 yards and three touchdowns on just 20 carries, and I expect his workload to increase by 5-10 touches in order to slow the game down and wear down Wesleyan’s defensive front.
Quarterback Kenny Gray ‘20 had a disappointing performance having completed less than 50 percent of his passes this past weekend, but the senior avoided turning the ball over and found the endzone through the air and on the ground. He’ll have to improve upon that performance a significant bit in order to spring the upset against the visiting Cardinals, but with Scott entering his first road game as a starter, the Continentals will surely be confident they can pull out a victory. In the end, however, I think Wesleyan’s offense looked too explosive against Colby, and Hamilton’s offense putting up 37 points is more of an indictment of Bowdoin’s atrocious defense. Scott once again completes over 60% of his passes for 220 yards and two scores while adding 50+ yards on the ground, and the Cardinals pull away late to escape Clinton, New York with a win.
Seamus Lambert struggled under center in Week 1, but will he still be there in Week 2?
The second worst defensive performance of the NESCAC football slate in Week 1 belonged to the Polar Bears. Allowing 403 total yards against the Continentals is not what Coach Hammer wanted to see with a matchup against a very ticked-off Bantams squad, who lost their NESCAC opener for the first time since 1995. In the upset of the week (and possibly the 2019 season), Trinity failed to eclipse double digits and fell to Tufts 14-8. Neither quarterback found any success: Seamus Lambert ‘22 was 15/26 for a mere 111 yards (1 TD, 1 INT) before being benched in favor of last year’s opening-day starter Jordan Vazzano ‘20. Vazzano wasn’t much better, throwing an interception with less than three minutes left as the Bantams were marching deep into Jumbos territory. Despite their offense being stagnant for a majority of the game, Trinity had three chances in the fourth quarter to take the lead, and blew each opportunity. Brian Casagrande ‘22 penetrated the Jumbos’ offensive line and recorded a safety to make it a one score game with about 12 minutes remaining. After receiving the ball back inside the Jumbos 40 yard line, the Bantams were stifled on a 4th and 1 attempt and turned the ball over on downs. Vazzano’s interception would turn out to not be the game-clincher as the Trinity defense would force a quick stop in order to give the offense one more crack. After leading a drive all the way inside the Jumbos’ 10 yard line, Vazzano was sacked and the game-clock ran out of time.
The defense played extremely well in limiting the Jumbos to under 300 yards of total offense and will have no trouble shutting down Austin McCrum ‘21 and Nate Richam-Odoi ‘20. The latter needs to be a focal point this week for the Polar Bears, as he had a tough time sledding against the Continentals. McCrum was relied on to throw the ball way too much last week, and as we saw last season, the junior quarterback is prone to turnovers when his throwing volume increases. Moral victories will be all the Polar Bears are concerned with on Saturday.
Middlebury’s 17-13 upset of Williams was dwarfed in significance due to the Tufts-Trinity game, but the Panthers’ defense made a statement to the rest of the NESCAC world that their squad is a serious contender for the Championship in 2019. They did exactly what was needed to be done in order to take down the Ephs: shut down Bobby Maimaron ‘21 and the running game. The Panthers limited the Ephs to just 101 yards on the ground, and Maimaron ran 16 times for a mere 39 yards. Linebacker Pete Huggins ‘21 was flying around the backfield constantly, totaling 13 tackles (five TFL’s) and two sacks. Linebacker Wyllis McKissick ‘21 recorded his first interception of his career as well as his first offensive touchdown on a two-yard reception from quarterback Will Jernigan ‘21. With no Pete Scibilia ‘21 for reasons unbeknownst to the Nothing But NESCAC writers (assuming some sort of injury), Jernigan did more than enough to will the offense to victory; trailing by 3 with just 30 seconds left, the junior scored on a five-yard quarterback keeper to propel the Panthers into the win column. Jernigan found success on the ground (21 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown), but freshman running back Alex Maldijan ‘23 struggled in Scibilia’s absence (21 carries, 49 yards).
Liam Spillane had a very solid Week 1 out of the Bobcat backfield
The same offensive and defensive formulas will be applied this week when the Panthers hit the road and take on the Bobcats. Junior quarterback Brendan Costa ‘21 is respected as more of a runner rather than a thrower; despite completing 23 of his 38 attempts, most of his completions were either of the wide receiver screen variety or swing passes. I thought Bates came out with a solid game plan against the Mammoths, but shortened offensive possessions due to turnovers forced the defense to take the field on short rest. Running back Jaason Lopez ‘21 had two of those fumbles in the second half in addition to one at the beginning of the game, but expect him to bounce back in a big way on Saturday, ready to atone for last week. Liam Spillane ‘21 (11 car for 55 yds, 2 rec for 10 yds and a TD) and Tyler Bridge ‘23 (4 car for 40 yards) round out the trio of tailbacks for the ‘Cats, and all three are capable of changing the game with a single carry.
Costa has weapons on the field if he can get the ball downfield to them. Christian Olivieri ‘22 (6 receptions for 58 yards) is turning into a reliable ball-catcher and tight end Isaiah Saunders ‘21 has the potential to catch 3-5 passes a game if he can consistently get open. Freshman Mohamed Diawara ‘23 is electric when in space and caught three passes against Amherst, but he showed his physicality with an absolutely thunderous crackback block in the second quarter. He’s an immediate impact player, and Bates will need him ready to go in order to pull off the upset.
It’s no surprise that Middlebury’s defensive plan will be to stack the box and keep an eye on Costa’s scrambling ability, forcing the junior to beat them with his arm. I really do think this is a trap game for the Panthers because of the volatility of their offense (specifically Jernigan), but I just can’t pull the trigger. Middlebury’s defense will once again win them the game, but it won’t be easy.
I’ll keep this one short because it’s our Game of the Week, but no one could have predicted Tufts to knock off the three-time defending champions in Week 1. What an awesome feeling that must have been for first-year starter in senior Jacob Carroll, who waited his turn behind Ryan McDonald and finally got his chance on the big stage. Tufts has everything going for them heading into Williamstown, but my gut tells me the high from beating Trinity won’t last past Saturday. After stumbling on their own feet against Middlebury, Williams knows this game is a must win. Starting the season 0-2 is essentially a death sentence, so expect Maimaron, Frank Stola and co. to set the tone early and grind out some yards against a solid Jumbos defensive front.
Also shoutout to OJ Armstrong for the Jumbos, Go Raiders*
MK: Williams 20-13 RM: Williams 23-17 SS: Tufts 17-7 HC: Williams 30-24 CC: Williams 24-16
