It was an interesting day of games as Tufts and Trinity actually fared the same – falling in their first game but turning around and defeating the same team they played on Friday to secure a place in the regional championship. Coming out of the losers bracket is never easy, but these two teams have made it this far for a reason. Let’s take a brief look at what the matchups look like on championship Sunday:
Tufts vs. SUNY Cortland, 10am @ SUNY Cortland
The Jumbos will likely send junior Spencer Langdon ’20 to the mound, much like they did in the fourth game of the NESCAC Tournament, which they ended up winning. Although he did throw two innings out of the bullpen in their first game, I’m not sure that Coach Casey trusts anyone else with the ball in his hands for an elimination game. The Red Dragons will almost surely counter with senior Jake Casey ’19, who has put together a solid season – a 5-0 record along with a 3.00 ERA in 39 innings. The key for Tufts in this game will be keeping the Cortland bats quiet. The Red Dragons came out very hot in their first matchup with the Jumbos, putting up 10 runs in the first 5 innings. The Tufts bats came around eventually and put up 5 runs behind a Casey Santos-Ocampo 3-run home run in the 9th. If they can get the bats going earlier and put up one or two zeroes early on, it will be a very different game. The tricky thing here is that the Jumbos actually need two consecutive victories against SUNY Cortland to secure the regional championship, so it’s definitely an uphill battle. The good news is Coach Casey is no stranger to uphill battles.
Prediction: Tufts 6, SUNY Cortland 4
Trinity vs. Babson, 2:30pm @ Trinity
At this point it’s actually a bit of a mystery who the Bantams will have take the hill against the Beavers. Trinity has already used their top 5 pitchers in terms of innings pitched for at least 3 innings each in the regional. This would lead me to believe that they’ll either send out Max Barsamian ’21 or Alex Herbst ’20. Barsamian clearly has better numbers, but he hasn’t pitched in a game in over two weeks so I have to wonder whether he got injured. Either way, the pitching will be a bit thin and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a committee of guys (headline by none other than Erik Mohl ’19) to give Babson a number of different looks. Babson will run out junior Michael Nocchi ’20, who has amassed a 2.86 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched. The Beavers definitely aren’t short on pitching, so like Tufts, Trinity will have to bring the bats if they want to walk away victorious. In their elimination game against Salve Regina, outfielder Matt Koperniak ’20 had a career day, going 5-for-5 with 2 home runs and a double, along with 3 RBIs. He clearly isn’t ready to go home yet, so hopefully his teammates will follow his lead and swing their way to the super regionals. They, too, have to sweep a doubleheader to advance, so it will be a tall task for the boys from Hartford.
Well NESCAC baseball fans, the conference season is upon us. That means it is unlikely to see a 22-3 game with six homers that go over four hundred feet. The warmth of Florida and Arizona aren’t felt anymore. The only thing that these players feel is the biting cold of New England’s early spring. The conference season kicked off with a bang. Defending league champs Amherst lost two out of three games to Little Three rival Wesleyan. Trin looks confident after taking a three game set against Bowdoin. A lot has transpired this past weekend. Let’s take a closer look at what/who I believe is up or down.
Stock up
Trinity pitching
Andrew DeRoche seems to have taken over as the Friday starter for the Bantams
Like in any sports conference, there is a traditional hierarchy. That being said, the NESCAC is one of the most competitive conferences in all of college athletics. Sweeps occur, but they are rare, in my opinion, due to the general parity in the league. Bowdoin hasn’t been strong in years. They have been a middle to lower tiered team in the East division. They have traditionally had trouble swinging the bad even with some solid pitching. This past weekend proved no different. Picking up three wins for Trin is huge. Even if the wins are against Bowdoin, a win is a win. In a league with not very many conference games, each one could be the difference between a playoff appearance or simply only studying for finals. Trinity was lead by their stellar pitching this past weekend. Andrew DeRoche ’20 went 7.1 innings allowing no earned while giving up three hits. Will Simeone ’22 went game two with an almost identical stat line. All hands were on deck for game three with Max Barsamian ’21 going four solid innings with Eric Mohl ’19 going another four innings unearned to pick up the win. Obviously Trin’s largest adversary in the East is Tufts. Tufts had a slow start last year, but ended up going all the way to the end with Amherst. After graduating a few big bats; however, I think it may be time for Trinity to take the reigns of dominance in the East.
Dominance of the West Division
Williams is 12-1 right now without having played a league game. They swept Colby this past weekend with big hitting numbers. Amherst dropped two against Wesleyan, playing sloppy defense for most of the weekend. The result would have easily been flipped if Amherst took care of the baseball. I am certain that a program like Amherst will clean up the defense, and be a force in the division like so many years prior. Middlebury looked strong too and has two perennial POY and Cy Young candidates like Han and Morris, making it no wonder why they’re off to a strong start. Coach Leonard has made the program strong again and it is clear that last year was an anomaly for the Panthers. They lost some close games due to a lack of clutch hitting and some bad breaks. Hamilton had a tough weekend against Midd but the Conts still play a style of baseball where they can absolutely rake and just need to find a way to close out games against strong teams. They have the talent, there’s no question about that, but what remains to be seen is if they can convert that talent to consistent winning. Wesleyan had a dismal spring trip. Hitting, like always, was strong, though their pitching was inconsistent at best. They certainly turned it around this weekend winning two against a strong foe in Amherst. The emergence after a season off for Andrew Keith ’19 is huge. He and freshman Adam Geibel ’22 are strong additions to the team. I can honestly see all these teams make a strong push for the division title. All West division games will be fun to watch.
Stock down
Maine Baseball
Brandon Lopez has been one of the only bright spots for Bowdoin so far
It has been a tough start for every Maine NESCAC team. Bowdoin has yet to win a game; Colby couldn’t contain Williams; Bates lost two out of three to Tufts. After making the playoffs a year ago, I thought Bates was on the rise. The Bobcat pitching has always been its bread and butter. Like everyone knows, you have to score runs to win ball games. Bates has always had trouble putting the ball in play. With Tufts and Trinity playing as well as they are, it is hard to envision Bates making the playoffs*. Bowdoin has yet to win a game. I repeat: Bowdoin has yet to win a game. Not only are they are shooting 0% in conference games, they haven’t beat a non-conference opponent either. A major reason why that’s the case is playing in California for spring training. The teams in California are much better than in Arizona or Florida. I understand wanting to play the top talent, but if you’re unable to pick up even one win, why go? Don’t you want to gain confidence? The addition of Coach Jesse Woods has certainly helped in the early-going, but it’s hard to envision them sustaining this come conference play. The Mules haven’t faced a team from the East division yet, but the games against Williams don’t show much hope. Colby has some talent and maybe even be able to steal a win or two, but the strength of Tufts and Trin makes it unlikely for a Maine team to make the playoffs.
*Editor’s note: Bates has had a mysterious way of performing just well enough to sneak into the playoffs over the last few years despite being one of the worst statistical teams. Tufts and Trinity look like the clear 1 and 2 in the east, but we’ve learned by now that you can never really count out the Bobcats.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
I have always liked this quote. It makes sense to me that the dominant teams will stay dominant no matter the changing circumstances. The Patriots, under Belichick, have been able to adapt and beat teams in a variety of ways. The San Antonio Spurs have been able to remain a dominant team even if they don’t have many ‘superstars’. Tufts lost a huge portion of their lineup, but here they are just as good as ever. Bates and Trinity are right there in the mix just like always. That’s the East, though. In the West, I think it’s a toss up. I think Midd will make the playoffs, but after that, it’s a crapshoot. Will Williams be dominant for the first time in a while? They have the pieces, and have played well so far. Will Wesleyan’s pitching come around? It showed up for the most part against Amherst. Will the departure of Brian Hamm from Amherst kill the intimidation the team radiated? We’ll see. It will be an exciting spring season without a doubt.
You might notice that some of our preseason predictions are a bit off. We foresaw some things and whiffed on some others. Here are the things we swung and missed on and why they matter so far this season:
Tufts’ In-Conference Woes: Does their Record Accurately Reflect their Potential?
In NBN’s preview of the Eastern Division last month, the question wasn’t “Which two teams are making the playoffs?”, but rather “Which team is going to finish below Tufts?” Halfway through their conference schedule, a different narrative is being presented. The Jumbos currently sit at a 3-3 in-conference record, and are heading into their 3rd weekend of NESCAC play. Tufts faced a tough Bantams squad for their first NESCAC series, but nobody expected that they would be on the short end of 2/3 games. The first two games of this series were close ball games but, both victories went to the Bantams. Tufts was able to salvage the third game of the series but nevertheless, the Jumbos are not used to losing series, especially on their own turf. Although Tufts was able to win their next series against Bowdoin, 2 games to 1, they were handed their third loss, one more loss than NBN predicted they would have all season long. So what is going wrong for the Jumbos? Are there key pieces who haven’t gotten it going? Or is it just dumb luck that their opponents have been able to get the better of them?
RJ Hall has cemented himself as one of the league’s best pitchers.
Nick Falkson ‘18, was my pick for Eastern Division MVP and he’s just not quite living up to the hype right now. Despite the fact that he is leading the conference in homeruns (4), his .269 BA shows an inconsistency of hard contact. His average has gone down over .100 from last season and perhaps this could help explain some of Tufts’ troubles, as their senior leader is not all he was cut out to be. On the mound, Tuft’s 1-2 punch of Brent Greeley ‘20 and R.J. Hall ‘19 have been lights out. Greeley is 3rd in the conference with a 1.85 ERA and Hall is 2nd in the conference with 3 wins. Out of the ‘pen Spencer Langdon ‘20 is leading the conference in ERA (1.08) and has a clean 2-0 record. Looking at Tuft’s stats, there doesn’t seem to be too much going wrong. So how did they end up 3-3? They happened to run into a red hot Trinity, who were barely able to take 2 of 3 from the Jumbos. Secondly, Bowdoin’s only win against Tufts was an extremely close 4-3 game in which the Jumbos had the tying run on base and just barely couldn’t get the job done. My intuition says that the talent is still there for the Jumbos and they certainly will not be missing out on the playoffs this year. I would predict an electric playoff series between 2-Seed Tufts and 1-Seed Amherst, with the Jumbos hungry for yet another ‘ship.
The whole Tufts staff, including its two first year starters, is pushing back towards the playoffs.
Trinity’s Improved Staff
Trinity’s staff carried them to a series win against the previously untouchable Jumbos.
Offense was never going to be an issue for the Bantam’s this year. As predicted, they have been getting it done at the plate, in-conference they are boasting a team AVG of .304 (2nd in NESCAC), 33 XBH (1st), 4 HR (1st), 56 RBI (1st) and 21 SB (1st). To be fair they have played 9 games while almost all other teams (with the exception of Bowdoin) have only played 5 or 6, but the numbers are impressive regardless. Trinity’s question was whether their pitching staff has the ability to keep them in games. Last year the Bantams finished 7th in team ERA (4.68) and were dead last in home runs allowed (16) and K/9 (5.94). This year Trinity’s staff has really stepped it up, lowering their in-conference ERA to a modest 3.65, raising their K/9 to 8.57 (2nd in NESCAC) and leading the NESCAC with 68Ks. The combination of Trinity’s potent offense and rejuvenated mound presence have lead the Bantams to a conference-best 7 wins. Much of Trinity’s success on the mound is thanks to starters Erik Mohl ‘19 and Alex Shafer ‘20. These two starters for the Bantams have combined for 5 of the team’s 7 conference wins. In 2 of Shafer’s 3 starts in the ‘CAC, he has gone the distance for a CG. In the one start he didn’t toss the whole game, he pitched 6 ⅔ innings of a 7 inning game. It’s safe to say that this guy is an absolute workhorse for the Bantams and his ability to limit bullpen use has been extremely helpful to their success this year. Schafer looks to have a real shot at NESCAC Pitcher of the Year as he is second in the league in innings pitched (37 ⅓), tied for first in complete games (2) and wins (4) and is 4th in ERA (2.17). Experience has clearly aided the Bantam’s staff this year as they have returned every single pitcher from last year. With the addition of Max Barsamian ‘21 and Justin Olson ‘21, Trinity has taken advantage of their ability to grow and mature as a staff over the last year and the results show it. With the Bantams leading the conference in many major statistical categories, both offensively and defensively, it seems as if they are on a crash course to a NESCAC championship as nobody has shown the ability to slow them down yet.
Midd’s Early Struggles
Hayden Smith is one of the few brights spots in 2018 for the Panthers.
To say that the Panther’s started out on a high note is a complete understatement. After a whopping 20-1 opening day victory over Williams, it seemed as if Midd was on the fast-track to another NESCAC championship appearance. After splitting the double header the next day, things still seemed to be going according to plan as the Panthers headed back home to snowy Vermont with a respectable 2-1 conference record. The next weekend would turn out to be one that Midd fans wish they could forget. Wesleyan managed to take all 3 games from Midd, pushing the Panthers from being playoff-likely, to being tied for last in the division with the Williams team they had clobbered the previous weekend. As NBN predicted in our preview of the West Division, it was not likely that their order would be as consistent as 2017, which was evident after struggling against Wes’ pitching. Additionally, the Panther staff wasn’t getting it done either, allowing 23 runs over the 3 game series. On the season, Midd is next to last in the league in batting average (.252) and total bases (208). Additionally, they are 8th in conference in ERA (5.46), which is not a great combination for a successful team. The road to repeat for Midd looks tough this year, as their remaining NESCAC opponents are a Hamilton squad, who just took 2 out of 3 games from the same Wesleyan club that swept the Panthers, and a red hot Amherst who currently leads the West Division. A sweep, or even two, might be necessary for Middlebury to find themselves back in the playoffs this year. This will be an especially tough ask when one of their starters (Colin Waters ‘19) has an ERA over 10 and the rest of their ‘pen hasn’t fared too well either. Also considering the fact that only 2 starters, Justin Han ‘20 and Hayden Smith ’20, are hitting over .300, things are gonna have to change for the Panthers really quickly in order for them to be playoff contenders once again.
Age is Just a Number: Freshman Getting it Done at the Dish
Everyone knows that the jump from high school to college baseball can be extremely difficult adjustment for some. Clearly nobody told these Freshman that, as they have been tearing it up at the plate for their respective teams.
Joseph Palmo ‘21 (Amherst) Austin, TX: Palmo, along with his fellow Mammoths, have started off their 2018 campaign on a hot streak. The Texas native has started out his college career on a high note, hitting at a .350/.412/.450 clip. Not only is it a feat in and of itself to be a starter as a Freshman, but Palmo takes full advantage of the opportunity of the playing time he’s given. Palmo has the 3rd highest batting average among a group of extremely talented starters for Amherst. His consistency at the plate has helped the Mammoths to a 4-1 start in conference play and I would expect to be hearing Palmo’s name a lot for the next 3 years.
Eric Pappas ‘21 (Williams) Providence, RI: While there has not been a lot of success to point to in Williamstown, as the Ephs currently have a 5-14 (2-4 in NESCAC) record, Pappas provides hope for a struggling Williams squad. With an outrageous .415 batting average, Pappas currently sits in 3rd place in the NESCAC. Pappas is constantly putting the ball in play, resulting in only striking out a mere 2 times on the season. Maybe Pappas’ older teammates could take a page out of his book; as a team Williams is striking out in about 20% of their ABs compares to Pappas’ 5%. Perhaps some youthful inspiration from Pappas could help turn around the Ephs’ season, but at the moment that probably won’t be enough.
Andrew Russell ‘21 (Colby) Massapequa, NY: Russell is yet another thriving Freshman on a struggling squad. While the Mules are currently last in the NESCAC with their 4-15 (1-5 in NESCAC) record, that hasn’t slowed down Russell’s bat. Russell is 3rd on the team with his .311 AVG and is one of 5 Mules to go yard this season. Earning the starting shortstop job as a Freshman means that he will have 3 more years to bring Colby to their first NESCAC playoffs because, barring a miracle, they will miss out on postseason play yet again this year.
Matt Zaffino ‘21 (Hamilton) New Canaan, CT and Jarrett Lee ‘21 (Hamilton) Medfield, MA: Sitting in 3rd place in the West Division, Hamilton’s success this year has been a surprise to most. We predicted that Hamilton would come last in the NESCAC this season, going 2-10 in conference. The Continentals have already met that win total, boasting a 12-11 (2-3 in NESCAC) record. A major part of their unprecedented success this year has been the contributions by these 2 key freshman. Lee has an excellent season thus far, sporting a .349 BA and .950 OPS. Lee leads the team in stolen bases (6) and is last in strikeouts (6). Zaffino is looking like the leading offensive candidate for NESCAC Rookie of the Year so far. He leads the Continentals in AVG (.394), walks (15), RBI (19), 2B (6), 3B (4) and HR (3).This kid is legit and the conference has taken notice. When making pre-season predictions the biggest wildcard is always the performance of first year players. Zaffino and Lee are also leading Hamilton in most offensive categories making it clear why they were overlooked heading into 2018. Although they’re currently 1 ½ games outside of 2nd place, the Continentals have the chance to ride their newfound fountain of youth all the way to the playoffs.
Wesleyan’s Strikeout Factory
Heading into the 2018 season there was no debate that Wesleyan would have a strong pitching staff, seeing as Mike McCaffrey ‘19 and Alec Olmstead ‘20 would be returning. Both of these pitchers are known for being able to not only get ahead in the count but consistently putting away hitters via the strikeout. With the support of newcomer Kelvin Sosa ‘21, who currently is racking up 11.06 K/9, the Cardinals currently rank 1st in the NESCAC and 25th in the nation in K/9 at 9.8. Wesleyan is one of only two NESCAC teams to break the top 100 in this category nationally (Colby ranks 82nd at 7.9 K/9), and it is in very large part thanks to this trio of starters. McCaffrey and Olmstead each hold K/9s of 11.73 and 10.93, respectively, to go along with Sosa’s stellar strikeout rate. Being able to get over 33% of their outs via strikeout has allowed the Cardinals to post a +39 run differential on the season en route to their 15-8 (4-2 in NESCAC) record. No team in the NESCAC has ever finished the season with a K/9 of over 9.0 so the Cardinals have the chance to make it into the record books. Sitting a half game back of 1st place Amherst, Wesleyan will look to their staff to keep putting Ks up on the board in order to continue their success.
