Wesleyan Needs to Win and Wait to Claim a Share of the NESCAC Title

Trinity (5-2) at Wesleyan (6-1)

Editor’s note: This article was a team effort by the listed author, Sean Meekins, and Carson Kenney

Well, as most of you know, Trinity lost a heartbreaker last weekend at Amherst. This weekend Trinity will head up to Middletown to try to play spoiler on any hopes that Wesleyan has of a repeat of a NESCAC championship. Because of the late start in Amherst on Saturday, all eyes will be on this game. If Trinity leaves with a win, Amherst’s outright title will be secured, but if the Cardinals are victorious, they will be glued to their television sets all afternoon, rooting for the Ephs. Trinity had the same record at this time last year and embarrassed Wesleyan at The Coop with a stunning 40-10 victory, stealing the Cardinals’ outright crown. There is definitely no love lost between both teams, as the Connecticut rivalry will provide fans with a hard-nosed game.

Mike Weatherby '14 Pressures Jesse Warren '15 in last years game (Courtesy of Greg Sullivan http://www.sevenstrong.net/)
Mike Weatherby ’14 Pressures Jesse Warren ’15 in last year’s game (Courtesy of Greg Sullivan http://www.sevenstrong.net/)

Wesleyan:

Wesleyan will come at Trinity with a well-balanced offensive attack. Jesse Warren ’15 is the anchor behind center putting together some very impressive statistics. Warren has thrown for 14 touchdowns this season and averages over 186 yards a game through the air. The Trinity defense will have to force Warren to make mistakes because he has only turned the ball over twice in seven games. Wesleyan also looks to come at Trinity with a strong running attack. Lou Stevens ’17 has taken over as the feature back for the Cardinals, tallying 78 carries and 393 yards (5.04 yards per carry) over the last three weeks. Stevens’ productive running opens up windows for Warren to throw to his big-time receivers, Jay Fabien ’15 and Josh Hurwitz ’15. They have combined for nine touchdowns this season, with Fabien at second in the league with 61.7 yards per game. The Cardinals’ offense was slightly better statistically in 2013, but compared to the rest of the league, the Wesleyan offense has been far more impressive, averaging 5.8 more points per game than second-ranked Middlebury.

Once again, Wesleyan’s defense has been elite, allowing more than 21 points only once this season. In the last two games the Cardinals have outscored their opponents 57-0, albeit against the league’s seventh and tenth-ranked offenses. Wesleyan is now on top of the league in yards allowed per game. Trinity’s offense has struggled mightily in their last few games, and if Wesleyan’s defense continues to step up to the challenge another shutout could be possible.

On another note, Wesleyan is also playing for a share or potential outright title of the Little Three crown. Having already lost to Amherst a few weeks back, the Cardinals will need a win and an Amherst loss to steal the Little Three crown while also nabbing a share of the NESCAC title.

Trinity:

What will Trinity have to do to win this game? They will need to rely on the defense, best against the run in the NESCAC, to stop Stevens. If there was ever a bigger time for the Trinity defense to step up and prove a point, it will be now.  Led by the three big senior linebackers Mike Weatherby ’15, Tom Symanski ’15 and Rob Gau ’15, Trinity’s defense is going to have to dominate on that side of the ball. Amherst could not get it going at any point during the Bantams’ last game, but neither could the Bantams’ offense. With QB Henry Foye ’15 sidelined last week due to a neck injury during the Middlebury game, the Bantams attempted just nine passes, throwing as many interceptions as completions. What’s more, since Chudi Iregbulem ’15 missed Week 5 due to a leg injury, he has yet to score a rushing TD and has seen his yards per carry drop from 5.46 to 2.71. Last week Iregbulem still saw the ball plenty with 29 carries, but Darrien Myers ’17, normally a WR/KR, and Spencer Aukamp ’18, who came into 2014 as a quarterback, were much more effective running the ball.

Prediction: Trinity 13 – Wesleyan 6

Trinity still struggles offensively, but even though the Cardinals’ offense has been proficient, the Bantams showed last season that they have the guts and talent to stop the Weselyan attack.

Handicapping the Player of the Year Races

Predicting the potential Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year is about searching for trends in the voting pattern of the NESCAC coaches. Seven of the last eight Offensive POY were quarterbacks, and six of the last seven Defensive POY were linebackers. With that being said, this season looks like it could be very different.

Offensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Running Back LaDarius Drew ’15 (Wesleyan) – Both All-NESCAC QBs from last season are gone, and Drew looks to be the feature running back on the most explosive offense in the league. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns including a 167 yard performance against Bowdoin last year. However, he slowed down as the year went along, averaging under four yards per carry in three of his final four games. Also, Kyle Gibson ’15 will also take a lot of carries and was actually more productive per rush in 2013. Drew could run into a situation where the Wesleyan coaches decide to only give him about 15 carries a game (he averaged 20.5 in 2013), letting Gibson run more, and keeping Drew from putting up big numbers.

Contenders:

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan) – If carries are split by Drew and Gibson then Warren could win if he repeats his efficiency from last season but with slightly more production. Another 15:3 TD:INT ratio will give him a good shot.

Wide Receiver Luke Duncklee ’15 (Colby) – The most productive receiver in the NESCAC will collect a lot of credit if Gabe Harrington ’17 has a seamless transition to the starting role. Fellow receiver Nick Joseph ’15 will also need a good season to make sure teams can’t key on Duncklee.

Quarterback Matt Cannone ’16 (Bates) – After seeing Cannone in action in the scrimmage against Colby, it was clear the junior has made major improvements to his game especially in the passing game. He will rack up both passing and rushing yards in the Bates offense.

Running Back Alex Scyocurka ’14 (Williams) – Opponents keyed on Scyocurka a lot meaning he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry, but he should be able to punish defenses with a more balanced attack this season, and he’s as healthy as he’s ever been, so perhaps he can get closer to the 5.3 yards per rush he averaged in 2012. An improvement as a team will also help his prospects, though he has to cut down on the four fumbles from a year ago.

Wide Receiver Gene Garay ’15 (Amherst)-  The only other receiver who looks to have a shot at POY honors is Garay. The senior was the leading receiver for Amherst last season and should see even more targets with Jake O’Malley graduated. He is also helped by the potential for big plays in the return game.

The Darkhorse: Running Back Chudi Iregbulem ’15 (Trinity) – Iregbulem has not seen the field very much because of all the talent in front of him, but now he steps to the forefront. He will get the majority share of carries in tandem with Jacob Rivers ’15. His 7.2 yards per carry average is inflated somewhat because it came at the end of blowouts against tired defenses. Consider his potential a tacit compliment to the entire Trinity offensive line who will deserve much of the credit if he has a great season.

Defensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams)

Howe was the only sophomore selected to the All-NESCAC First Team in 2013. He tallied 55 tackles, which is impressive for a lineman, especially given the fact that teams would choose to run the opposite way if given the choice, seven more than the next-highest total by a lineman, Colby defensive end Caleb Harris ’15. Howe led the league in sacks with 10, 2.5 more than Harris, and was one behind Amherest linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 with 17 tackles for loss. Usually linebackers get the most recognition because they are asked to do the most on the field, but Howe is on another level compared to his peers. His pressure and dominance on the line makes the linebackers’ and defensive backs’ jobs easier, and for that he comes into 2014 as the favorite to bring home this honor.

Contenders:

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury) It’s been noted before, but the tackle numbers on defenses like Middlebury and Tufts are inflated because their offenses run so many plays. Nevertheless, Patricia is a playmaker. The former Rookie of the Year has been a force in the Middlebury for the Panthers since day one. It’s not his athletic tools that make him a great tackler, but his football IQ. Proof that his numbers are not just a product of high play totals: Patricia accounted for almost 14 percent of Middlebury’s tackles and over 13 percent of solos. Leading tackler Joey Cleary ’14 tallied just over 16 percent of Bowdoin’s tackles and just under 16 percent of solos.

Safety Jake Bussani ’14 (Wesleyan) The only thing that might keep Bussani from making a run for DPOY honors is the wealth of talent surrounding him on defense, but the graduate has made the All-NESCAC First Team in three straight seasons. His stats weren’t as impressive as in the previous two seasons, but that doesn’t mean that his play has tapered off.

Defensive End Caleb Harris ’15 (Colby) We already mentioned Harris above, but it’s worth reiterating that Harris was the cornerstone of the best run defense in the league last season, and was only six off the pace for most tackles on his own team.

Linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 (Amherst) Much like the next name on this list, what sets Tamasi apart is his ability to penetrate the backfield. Tamasi led the NESCAC with 18 tackles for loss and had four sacks, tying with teammate Ned Deane ’15 for the most among linebackers.

Linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14 (Trinity) A year after making the All-NESCAC First Team for the first time, Weatherby is back for a fifth year at the heart of the Bantams defense. Weatherby is great at stopping the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, as he racked up just one sack in 2013 but 11 tackles for loss.

Cornerback Brian Dones ’15 (Trinity) It’s tough to leave out Dones’ teammate, safety Mike Mancini ’15, but the corner might be the best pass defender in the league. His three interceptions and 11 pass breakups were both tops in the NESCAC, and his 1.8 pass breakups per game was tied for 11th in the nation. Teams might choose to throw away from Dones this year, but expect him to still make some big plays.

The Darkhorse: Safety/Linebacker Gilbert Brown ’15 (Bates) Brown fills the “down safety” position in Bates’ 3-3 stack defense, a position that requires a great deal of versatility. This allows Brown to be a factor in both the run and pass game, and on occasion he will be called on to create pressure on the quarterback. He racked up 42 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two interceptions and two pass breakups in 2013. Bates’ defense should be much improved this season with a bunch of starters returning, and Brown could elevate his game and become a game plan player around the NESCAC.

Anyone you think we missed? Let us know in the comments.