Mammoth-Sized Shoes to Fill: NESCAC West Preview

Amherst College Mammoths

Head Coach: J.P. Pyne, 1st Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 8-4

Key Losses:

OF Ariel Kenney (.362, 4 HRs, 25 RBI)

IF Harry Roberson (.302, 27 RBI, 38 H)

IF Max Steinhorn (.365, 1 HR, 20 RBI)

LHP Sam Schneider (59.2 IP, 4-2, 2.56 ERA)

Coach Hamm (9 years, 221-113 record)

Key Returners:

OF Joseph Palmo ’21 (.314, 43 H, 15 RBI)

C Severino Simeone ’20 (.243, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 11 runners caught stealing)

IF Nick Nardone (.280, 2 HR, 25 RBI)

RHP Andrew Ferrero (57.0 IP, 4-3, 2.21 ERA)

Biggest Series: Home vs. Middlebury, April 19th-20th

Realistically, this division is 3 teams—Amherst, Wesleyan, and Middlebury—competing for 2 playoff spots. Amherst should have the talent and experience to handle Williams and Hamilton relatively easily (I like that Amherst gets Williams early in the year before a young Ephs team
gets to figure it all out), and whoever comes out on top in their series vs. Wesleyan, it won’t be a sweep. If Amherst can win this series vs. Midd, either 2-1 or 3-0, they should be a lock for the postseason.

Everything Else

Despite being the reigning NESCAC champions, the Mammoths unfortunately have more questions than answers coming into this season. Losing three all-league players and the ace of your rotation will always bring some uncertainty, Amherst had to conduct a coaching search as well this summer. J.P Pyne takes over the program from Clark University after previous HC of nine years Brian Hamm departed for the same position at Eastern Connecticut State. While players undoubtedly win games, it will be interesting to see what kind of effect is felt with a first-year head coach. Joseph Palmo ’21 has already begun to fill the void that first team all-leaguer Ariel Kenney left behind in the outfield, garnering the most recent NESCAC Player of the Week award. If 3B Nick Nardone ’20 and C Seve Simeone ’20 can do the same for Harry Roberson and Max Steinhorn in the infield, Amherst will have a chance to repeat as champions.

Wesleyan University Cardinals

Head Coach: Mark Woodworth, 18th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 8-4

Key Losses:

OF Matt Jeye (.347, 1 HR, 36 RBI)

Key Returners:

OF Alex Cappitelli ’20 (.367, 2 HR, 34 RBI)

OF Danny Rose ‘20 (.361, 17 XBH, 24 RBI)

LHP Kelvin Sosa ’21 (46.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 9.5 K/9)

LHP Mike McCaffrey (53.0 IP, 5.60 ERA, 9.7 K/9)

Biggest Series: Away @ Amherst, March 29th-30th

While I think Wesleyan is the best team in this division on paper, that isn’t where the games are played. McCaffrey and Sosa’s pitching performances (see below) in the opening series against a Little Three rival will tell Cardinal fans just how much confidence they can have in this team. While it is obviously a matchup between the top teams in the division and has playoff ramifications, it is more so just a great opportunity to see if the talent in Middletown will come to play this year.

Everything Else

Kelvin Sosa needs to improve in order to give the Cardinals a chance this year

Wesleyan certainly seems to be the favorite in this division this year. They return 78.4% of their innings pitched from last year’s staff, as well as some of their top guys in the field, namely junior outfielders Alex Cappitelli and Danny Rose. But this team’s season rests on the shoulders of lefties Mike McCaffrey ’19 and Kelvin Sosa ’21. McCaffrey never came close to finding his form last year, someone who many thought had a chance to be the Pitcher of the Year in the NESCAC. The reason for that is because we have all seen McCaffrey has the stuff to dominate in this league, evidenced by his league leading 57 strikeouts. But he also led the league in walks, with 48. In fact, McCaffrey was joined by the aforementioned Kelvin Sosa (4th-26) near the top of the walks leaderboard. If their top pitchers can throw strikes, they’ll win the division going away. But if their early season results are any indicator (55 Ks to 51 BB), it’s going to be a grind.

Middlebury College Panthers

Head Coach: Mike Leonard, 3rd Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 6-6

Key Losses:

P Robert Erickson (48.2 IP, 3-3, 3.51 ERA)

Key Returners:

RHP Colby Morris ’19 (64.1 IP, 5-4, 1.68 ERA)

IF Justin Han ’20 (.369 AVG, .528 OBP, 22 SB)

IF Brooks Carroll ’20 (.963 FP, 7 2B, 17 RBI)

IF Hayden Smith ’20 (.364, 36 H, 22 RBI)

Biggest Series: Away @ Williams, April 12th-13th

Anyone who has played in this league or followed it, in any sport, knows the importance of winning games against teams you’re better than. The regular season is always decided by the top teams matching up against each other, but you cannot handicap yourself by losing to lesser opponents. Middlebury closes the season with series’ at Amherst and home to Wesleyan, but they cannot come into those games at 3-3 or probably even 4-2. They need to win this series against Williams, and probably win it handily.

Everything Else

The Panthers took another step towards becoming a NESCAC contender, coming just short in a last gasp run at the NESCAC playoffs. They return the reigning Pitcher of Year in righty Colby Morris ’19, and a stacked infield. In order to take the next step up they need to find a way to score some runs, namely in the power department. They were 4th in the league in runs last season but only 7th with just 9 home runs. They are clearly great at hitting for contact and hitting for average, but they need some more star power if they are to steal a few games when the bats go cold or when they run into a good pitcher.

Williams College Ephs

Head Coach: Bill Barrale, 12th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 6-6

Key Losses:

IF Jack Roberts (.287, 1 HR, 21 RBI)

C Adam Dulsky (.313, 1 HR, 16 RBI)

Key Returners:

OF Mike Stamas ’20 (.321, 1 HR, 13 RBI)

LHP John Lamont ’20 (40.0 IP, 4-1, 1.80 ERA) –in 2017

IF Kellen Hatheway ’19 (.228, 2 HR, 11 RBI)

Biggest Series: Home vs. Amherst April 5th-6th

Not only because it’s one of the biggest rivalries in all of collegiate athletics, but this series will be huge for the Ephs as it is their opener in divisional play. I think this is going to be a year of ups and downs for Williams, a young and unproven team riding the momentum of a long season. If they get smoked in three games, they might not recover the rest of the way, but if they are competitive in every game and even manage to take 1 or 2 off of their archrivals, it could boost their confidence for the rest of the season.

Everything Else

2018 was nothing but bad luck for the Ephs. Star pitcher Johnny Lamont ’20 missed his entire sophomore campaign, decimating an already bare cabinet of arms in Williamstown. Freshman IF Erik Pappas had been a bright spot in the lineup, hitting .415 before going down with a season ending injury after 15 games. There is certainly talent on this roster, however. IF Kellen Hatheway ’19 didn’t have the junior season he was hoping to after terrific freshman and sophomore years, but absolutely has First-Team potential. This team is probably still a year or two away, but if they can stay healthy this year, there should be some bright spots and building blocks.

Hamilton College Continentals

Head Coach: Tim Byrnes, 12th Season

Projected NESCAC Record: 2-10

Key Losses:

None

Key Returners:

IF Matt Zaffino ’21 (.359, 3 HR, 22 RBI)

IF Jarrett Lee ’21 (.305, 29 H, 13 RBI

Biggest Series: Home vs. Williams, April 26th-27th

Matt Zaffino is looking to make the jump to “star” status in his second season

Hamilton plays Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Amherst in that order before their divisional finale vs. Williams. Quite frankly, 2 or more wins out of those 9 would be a win for the Continentals. Their performance against their next most equal division opponent in Williams to close out the season will, rightly or wrongly, determine how Hamilton should feel about their season.

Everything Else

Hamilton are in a peculiar spot this season. They went 4-8 at the bottom of the NESCAC West but they return just about everyone. However, you’ll notice there are only two names listed as “key” returners. They return everyone, but those returners were not amongst the league’s top producers, save for Rookie of the Year Matt Zaffino, who has Player of the Year talent. This might be a good team this year, but they have Amherst, Wesleyan, and Middlebury on their schedule. Their record is going to reflect that.

What You Gotta Know: Amherst vs. Middlebury Series Breakdown

While everybody is looking towards the playoffs, there is still one series and one playoff spot on the line. Middlebury and Amherst are playing for their playoff lives with everything on the line this weekend. Read more to find out what you need to know before Saturday’s doubleheader:

Location: Forbes Field – Middlebury, VT

 While Middlebury has only played 5 of their 28 games at home this season, they’ve certainly had success when playing on their own diamond. On the season Midd sits at 4-1 in all home contests, thanks to their current 4 game win streak at home. On the other side of the equation, Amherst has only had 7 away games this year and they are 4-3 in those contests, most notably beating Wesleyan 2 games out of 3 on the road. Overall I’d give the Panthers a slight advantage being on their home turf, but Amherst has clearly shown that they can get it done on the road, so home field advantage will not be enough to take them down.

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury) 4-4, 1.92 ERA vs Andrew Ferrero ‘19 (Amherst) 3-1, 2.19 ERA

Colby Morris ’19

Andrew Ferrero ’19

 

 

 

 

 

Game 2: Robert Erickson ‘18 (Middlebury) 3-2, 3.19 ERA vs Sam Schneider ‘18 (Amherst) 3-2, 3.22 ERA

Rob Erickson ’18

Sam Schneider ’18

 

 

 

 

 

Game 3: George Goldstein ‘21 (Middlebury) 2-0, 1.02 ERA vs Davis Brown ‘19 (Amherst) 5-2, 3.80 ERA

George Goldstein ’21

Davis Brown ’19

Game 1 of this series features two of the top pitchers in the conference this year in Morris and Ferrero. Both are Juniors, Bay Area natives (despite the fact that Morris lists himself as from Del Mar, which is fake news) (Editor’s Note: It is not fake news) and are enjoying the best years of their careers thus far. Game 1 should be a tight, low-scoring contest and will come down to which one of these aces can go the distance for their team. I would give Morris the advantage over Ferrero because he has been able to go CG in 2 of his 3 NESCAC games so far and has maintained a stellar 1.23 ERA in conference this year. Before Amherst’s loss against Hamilton I would have said that the game two matchup should be very close as well. But after giving up 6 earned in 3+ innings Davis Brown will likely have his start pushed to Sunday. That leaves the task up to Sam Schneider ’18 who will be making his last NESCAC start. Schneider got bounced after one inning against Hamilton and put up quality starts in his other two outings and is by no means a lock for success. On the other hand, Erickson has been able to hold all NESCAC West opponents to 3 runs or less per start so far this year. If both teams maintain their same rotation as last week then game 2 should be lopsidedly in favor of Middlebury. Game 3 looks to be an absolute wildcard as it pits Freshman George Goldstein, who only has one career start, against either Brown or an Amherst bullpen arm. Goldstein’s only career start came last week against Hamilton where he was able to go 5 strong, scoreless innings to get the final win of the series sweep for the Panthers. Despite Goldstein’s stellar numbers, because he didn’t go more than five innings in his start, he leaves a lot up to the Middlebury bullpen. This

Key Players:

 Middlebury

Hayden Smith ‘20: .382/.452/.461, 21 RBI, 6 XBH

Justin Han ‘20: .367/.528/.456, 18 RBI, 27 BB, 20SB

Brooks Carroll ‘20: .311/.376/.427, 12 RBI, 9 XBH, 15SB

Amherst

Ariel Kenney ‘18: .420/.496/.670, 21 RBI, 4 HR, 11 BB

Max Steinhorn ‘18: .391/.458/.461, 16 RBI, 6 XBH, 14 SB

Harry Roberson ‘18: .316/.421/.429, 11 2B, 24 RBI, 16 BB

Numbers-wise, Amherst’s offense is clearly superior to Midd’s. Lead by a trio of Seniors, Amherst currently has the best team batting average in the conference at .304 while Midd sits in 6th at .267. One thing that both of these teams do especially well is run the bases. Midd leads the conference by a significant margin with their 72 bags swiped while Amherst is 3rd with their 53 stolen bases. Interestingly, when it comes to away games for the Mammoths, their team average is less than 10 points lower than it is for home games, showing that they are not intimidated on the road. Luckily for Middlebury, their team average goes up nearly 80 points when they are on their home field, which may provide some of the offense that Midd has seemed to be lacking all season. Overall, I think that Amherst has a clear offensive advantage over Middlebury and Midd will need to use the leverage of their home field advantage, as well as their current 9 game win streak, in their favor in order to be able to match the Mammoth’s outstanding plate presence.

Midd has something going right now after two straight sweeps. Photo courtesy of David Goldstein.

Series History (Since 2007)

Overall:

Amherst: 25-9

Middlebury 9-25

Home:

Amherst: 11-4

Middlebury: 5-10

 Away:

Amherst: 10-5

Middlebury 4-11

 Neutral:

Amherst: 4-0

Middlebury 0-4

 It’s fairly clear to see that over the past decade or so Amherst has dominated their matchup against Midd. Both the home and away numbers are very similar for both teams, showing that home field advantage has not played all too much of a role in their past meetings. Although last year Midd was able to take 2 of 3 games from the Mammoths in Massachusetts and Middlebury made a much further playoff run than Amherst, so perhaps we are seeing a cultural shift happening in Vermont that is trending in the right direction. Despite the fact that history would choose Amherst over Midd by a long shot, with the recent momentum Midd has gained as well as their success last season against Amherst, this series will certainly be much tighter than it has been in years past.

What’s on the Line (Playoff Scenarios)

 Amherst: After a devastating loss to Hamilton on Thursday, the Mammoths now need to get a series win on the road in order to secure their playoff spot. Anything less than 2 wins would have Amherst go from the #1 seed to a team that will miss the playoffs entirely. If the Mammoths are able to take 2 games from Midd they will salvage their playoff spot and retain their status as the #1 seed.

Middlebury: Hamilton’s win over Amherst was a godsend for the Panthers as Midd’s comeback from last in the division is nearly complete. All Middlebury needs now is a series win at home to come all the way back from their rocky start. 2 wins or more will see Middlebury make the playoffs as the #2 seed, something that seemed unfathomable just weeks ago.