Sam Berry – Nothing But NESCAC

Bobcats Never Say Die: Baseball Stock Report 5/6

Nate Pajka '15 won NESCAC Player of the Week Honors as Bates advanced to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics) — Nate Pajka ’15 (14) won NESCAC Player of the Week Honors as Bates advanced to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Bates knew their task was simple going into last weekend: sweep Trinity and make the playoffs for the second straight year. Actually doing it appeared like a long shot, however. The only team in the NESCAC East that Bates had swept in the last 14 years was Colby who the Bobcats sweep practically every year. But Bates had never swept Trinity, Tufts or Bowdoin over three games.

Of course statistics like that don’t really have any impact on the actual games. The quick recap of each game of the series goes like this: Nate Pajka ’15 did something awesome and Bates won. The second game was the closest the Bobcats came to losing because Trinity starter Sean Meekins ’15 kept them scoreless for five innings. Then he ran into trouble, and after Sam Jordan ’16 came on an error allowed the tying run to score. Bates won the game in extras on a Sam Berry ’15 single. The final game came down to Will Levangie ’15 putting together the start of his career to get Bates over the top.

Once again Bates is going to the playoffs at 7-5. A year ago they ended up finishing third in the tournament with their one win coming over Amherst. They are certainly the least likely team to win the whole thing, but the presence of Pajka and Berry is enough to scare teams. To make the playoffs after losing far and away their best pitcher and top two hitters is a credit to Manager Mike Leonard and the resiliency of his players.

Stock Up

Starting Pitcher Will Levangie ’15 (Bates)

In the biggest start of his career (yes, bigger than his start in the NESCAC tournament last year), Levangie could not have pitched any better. He went all seven innings allowing only three hits and one walk. He never allowed a Trinity batter to advance beyond second or multiple Bantams to be on base at once. On April 25, in the final game against Tufts, Levangie didn’t even make it out of the first inning after allowing four walks and six runs. Just a week later the entire Bates team was mobbing him after a complete game shutout. He had two starts in the NESCAC season where he bombed out quickly, but he also had two complete game shut outs. If Bates is able to win at least one game, he will be called upon in the third game of the tournament. Hopefully, for the Bobcats, the good Levangie shows up.

Hamilton

Alright so they got swept by Wesleyan this weekend. The Continentals certainly weren’t the only team to have that happen to them this year. Two of the losses were by only one run because of great starts from Alex Pachella ’15 and Cole Dreyfuss ’16. Then on Sunday they swept their doubleheader against SUNY Polytechnic to guarantee that they will finish the season above .500 for the first time since 1990. Multiple parents of the program contacted us to inform us of this news, which just goes to show the excitement building around this program. From 1990-2014 the Continentals went 233-480-1, good for a .327 winning percentage, but Hamilton is 16-13 as of today with one game left to play this afternoon. They also had four NESCAC wins, tied for their highest total since 2001. The Continentals are nowhere close to the giants in the West, but they were a fun team to follow this year. They led the league in stolen bases in large part because of the 23 from Joe Jensen ’15. Kenny and Chris Collins ’17 also had 16 and 14 respectively. The lineup returns everyone except for Jensen and should be better overall. The key for them in 2016 will be Dreyfuss and Spencer Vogelbach ’18 reprising their stellar performanances, with the latter likely moving into a weekend starting role.

Stock Down

Trinity

The Bantams didn’t play poorly this weekend. They played right about how you might have expected them to, but were not able to come up with the hits when it mattered. Their lack of offense has been their weakness all year and ultimately why they again missed the playoffs. It hurts knowing that they went into the final day of the regular season at 4-6 but still having a chance to make the playoffs. Instead, they lost both games and ended up alone in last place in the East. Hard to imagine a larger one day swing than that. Going forward, the Bantams will have to replace Meekins as well as the middle of their lineup outside of Brendan Pierce ’18. The freshmen class saw a lot of different players like Nick Fusco ’18 get playing time, and they will be the ones who are likely to lead any resurgence in Hartford. Just don’t expect it to happen next year.

Weather

Where was all of this warm weather for the entire season? Playing baseball in the northeast is never easy, but the beginning of this season was almost wiped out because of all the leftover snow. The NESCAC was able to get through it through a combination of clever scheduling, the ability to play games at the recently opened New England Baseball Complex, and the good luck of not much rain on the weekends in April. Hats off to all of those that were able to find a way to make it all work, grounds crews, administrators, etc. The good news is that Mother Nature’s stock appears like it is about to go up. The weather report for the weekend in Nashua, New Hampshire has temperatures in the 80’s and sunny skies.

Random Thoughts for Kicks and Weekend Preview 4/31

Sam Berry '15 has emerged as a stud for Bates down the stretch. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics) — Sam Berry ’15 has emerged as a stud for Bates down the stretch. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Before diving into a somewhat amended weekend preview, I wanted to get a couple of thoughts out there that have nothing in common with each other. Also a note on the relative down tick in articles this spring: things come up (schoolwork mostly, nothing serious) and so I have written less. Apologies, and we want to thank everybody for sticking with us this spring.

1. Tufts loves to get hit by pitches: One of the few statistics I don’t keep track of really is HBP, but it really is a skill for hitters. The Jumbos excel at it with five of the top-six most-struck players hailing from Medford. As a unit, Tufts has been hit by a pitch 82 times; Bates is the next highest at 49. What we have heard is that this fits into a more general strategy for Tufts where they tend to crowd the plate and hit the ball the other way a lot. Considering that this year will be the seventh consecutive when they lead the NESCAC in that category, it certainly makes a lot of sense.

2. Mike Odenwaelder has a shot at 100 Total Bases: Getting to the century mark is something that no NESCAC player has done since 2010 when three players broke the mark. They must have been juicing the balls or something because Trinity’s James Wood hit 13 homers but didn’t even lead the league in that category because Noah Lynd hit 15 for Bates. These were, of course, the BESR days as well. Ah, the good old days… It’s actually worth it to take a trip down the rabbit hole and look at the NESCAC Statistics Page from that year. Anyway, Odenwaelder leads the league with 78 right now through 29 games (2.69 per game). Amherst has five games left in the regular season, and then there is the NESCAC tournament and potentially the NCAA tournament as well. At his current pace he needs 8.2 games to reach 100. It could be tight.

3. Two Freshmen on Bowdoin are named Max Vogel: Alright, so one is named Max Vogel and the other is Max Vogel-Freedman, but still pretty crazy right? We haven’t been able to figure out the exact story behind it, but you should know that both are capable ballplayers deserving of their spots on the team. One can imagine that it can be difficult for the coaching staff to talk to them. Also, one is a catcher and the other is a pitcher. I for one am rooting whole-heartedly for a Max Vogel-only battery someday.

4. Amherst gets caught stealing a lot: The generally accepted breakeven success rate for stealing bases is about 75 percent according to Fangraphs.com. Most teams are well above that success rate. Middlebury has the best success rate (7-8), but they hardly ever steal so they’re not a great example. But the Jeffs are an outlier. They are third in the league with 48 stolen bases, but where they blow everyone away is in the caught stealing department. They have been caught stealing 23 times. No other team has been caught more than nine times! A good amount of those caught stealings come from early in the season which is probably the Jeffs just testing if different guys can steal, but that still doesn’t account for the whole difference.

Huge start this weekend for Sean Meekins '15 as he tries to get Trinity back to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Huge start this weekend for Sean Meekins ’15 as he tries to get Trinity back to the playoffs. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Weekend Preview

Only one series matters this weekend: Trinity at Bates to decide the second playoff spot in the East. The rest of the games are basically white noise that could tell us which players are doing well and which are struggling, but they don’t matter much in the big picture of things. Just to lay it out for you: Bowdoin is 6-6, both Trinity and Bates are 4-5. Trinity gets into the playoffs if they win two or all three games, Bates gets in if they take all three, and Bowdoin gets in if Bates takes two of three. Bad news for Bowdoin is that no matter the outcome of the first two games, either Bates or Trinity will enter the final game already eliminated.

Trinity X-Factor: Starting Pitcher Jed Robinson ’16

The Bantams have leaned on their starting pitching to get into this position, but Robinson does not have a win in conference play. He owns a 4.74 ERA in conference play but has a 2.41 ERA over the course of the year. Now is the perfect time for Robinson to come up big and go deep into a game for Trinity. He has never pitched against Bates which gives him a major advantage early in the game as they try to figure out his stuff. Robinson should also eschew from chasing strikeouts and focus on pounding the zone. Six of his nine walks on the season have come in his conference starts, and he has also had more strikeouts in those starts. Better for him to keep things simple and rely on his defense.

Bates X-Factor: Third Baseman Sam Berry ’15

The senior Berry has been far and away Bates’ best hitter in conference play. He is hitting .447 and has an astronomic .816 slugging percentage. He has hit safely in his last 14 games, and half of those games have been multiple hit performances. Just last weekend against Tuft he went off and had three home runs. He and Nate Pajka ’15 supply the vast majority of the power in the middle of the lineup. The guys in front of him need to get on base and force Trinity to pitch to Berry, who is one of the hottest hitters in the league right now.

Projected Starters:

Friday 3:00 PM: Jed Robinson ’16 (Trinity) vs. Connor Colombo ’16 (Bates).
Saturday 12:00 PM: Sean Meekins ’15 (Trinity) vs. Connor Speed ’18 (Bates).
Saturday 2:30 PM: Nick Fusco ’18 (Trinity) vs. Will Levangie ’15 (Bates)

Expect a playoff atmosphere at Bates with a larger than normal crowd because Bates students are on their ‘short term’ and have minimal class commitments at the moment. That should make it a fun one to watch.

The pitching matchups in this one carry a good amount of uncertainty. Both teams will start one freshman in a big spot. Both managers will also be ready to pull one of the starters early at the first sign of trouble. In this respect Trinity might have a slight advantage because Bates was forced to pitch some of their relievers in their loss to Bowdoin on Tuesday. The advantage is pretty minimal, mind you. We have talked before of how important Sean Meekins ’15 has been for Trinity, and Connor Colombo ’16 has been of similar importance for Bates.

The Trinity offense is certainly not what one would call dynamic, but they have come through with a lot of big hits. Having Brendan Pierce ’18 back in the lineup after he had to miss five games for a suspension is big for them. He is really the only player who can say they have hit particularly well as the team has only a .244 average in conference games.

The outcome of this series will probably rest on the shoulders of the Bates offense. Even though the Bates pitching might be shaky, Trinity is not going to blow anybody out. They have not scored double digits in a game all season. Bates needs to be able to get at the starter quickly and force the Bantams into their bullpen early. The Bobcats are a patient team overall but they can’t simply wear down the Trinity starters. Rockwell Jackson ’15 at the top of the lineup has to get on early and often. Winning all three games is not going to be easy for the Bobcats.

Somewhat hard to believe that the Bantams simply need to win this series in order to make the playoffs. They were 2-5 after dropping their opening game to Bowdoin, but the morass in the East has made it possible. I don’t think this will be the prettiest series to watch, but the end result is that one team will be celebrating a playoff berth.

Prediction: Trinity wins two of three and makes the playoffs.

How the West Was Won: Stock Report 4/14

Brendan Pierce '18 has helped Trinity immensely. Note that this photo was taken in Florida if you were wondering about the man in the tanktop. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics) — Brendan Pierce ’18 has helped Trinity immensely. Note that this photo was taken in Florida if you were wondering about the man in the tank top. (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Well folks, Wesleyan and Amherst are going to the playoffs. That is what we confirmed this weekend. The Jeffs dispatched Williams in a comfortable three game sweep to move to 6-0 and drop Williams to 3-6. Add in Hamilton winning two out of three against Middlebury while not even looking great in their two victories and the race in the West is over. We don’t say this to disparage Williams, Middlebury and Hamilton, but they are all a step below where the Cardinals and Jeffs are. Unless Hamilton figures out how to play much better than they showed – not likely – the only drama left in the West is the order of finish between Wesleyan and Amherst.

Of course, the East is the opposite of the settled West. All five teams are separated by only two games. Tufts retains their spot at the top by a hair, and Bates has momentarily climbed into that second spot. That second spot could continue to be a revolving door.

Stock Up

Relief Pitcher Riley Streit ’16 (Amherst)

The unlikely hero that made Amherst’s sweep possible was Streit, who came on in relief in the final game and tossed six scoreless innings to finish the contest. The Amherst starter, Sam Schneider ’16, got knocked out of the game after allowing four runs in the fourth inning. With many of the other pitchers tired, Streit entered the game with the bases loaded and nobody out. After allowing one runner inherited from Schneider to score on a balk, he managed to get Williams 1-2-3 hitters out in order without allowing another run. Streit struggled earlier in the year, even letting up four homers in one game against Endicott, but he allowed only one runner to reach base on Sunday.

Third Baseman Sam Berry ’15 (Bates)

Though it has been an uneven year overall for Berry, he came up big this weekend for Bobcats along with other hitters like Rockwell Jackson ’15. He went 6-12 and scored five runs including four in the rubber game which Bates won in blowout fashion, 17-0, over Colby. On the year, Berry is hitting only .286, but don’t sleep on him building off of this weekend and finishing strong. That win Sunday was a huge one for Bates to get to 3-2 in conference and still having the chance to win the head-to-head series against Bowdoin. If they win that game, then they will need to go .500 in their other two series to likely secure a berth. Yes, 7-5 is probably going to be enough to make the playoffs once again in the East.

Utility Brendan Pierce ’18 (Trinity)

For an offense without a clear star entering the year, Pierce has been exactly the type of impact freshmen that Trinity needed. He leads the NESCAC with a .548 OBP, and he almost never strikes out as he has only four on the year. On Saturday he hit his first home run of the year as the Bantams got the split in the doubleheader against Tufts. Unfortunately, on Sunday the Bantams ended up losing 16-5 against Tufts. Now, the Bantams are 2-4 and still looking for a conference breakthrough. The Bantams had a very similar series to their one against Tufts last season. Both series had one game where Trinity was routed, one that was a close Bantam loss, and one that was a Bantam win because of a big hit late.

Stock Down

Williams Defense

By far the biggest reason why Williams was swept this weekend was their failures as a team defensively. In the series opener, starter Luke Rodino ’17 pitched well but was let down by a defense that had seven errors in the game. Rodino allowed eight runs but only one earned run. In the final game on Sunday, Williams was up 4-3 entering the sixth inning, but after the Jeffs tied up the game, Williams errors in the seventh and eighth inning allowed the Jeffs to score two runs and win 6-4. The Ephs ended up committing 14 errors over the three game series. Over the past two years against Wesleyan and Amherst the Ephs have committed 35 errors in 12 games and are 1-11 in those games.

Colby

The confluence of events that led to the Mules getting smashed 17-0 in the final game was mostly random, but it hurts nevertheless. Colby appeared to be in a good spot after winning game one of the Sunday doubleheader and having Greg Ladd ’15 ready for the final game. Then Ladd got knocked around and the bullpen was not able to keep things close. The good news is that all loses count the same. The Mules are still very much in the thick of things at 3-3 now, but they still have to play Tufts and Bowdoin and give up the playoff tiebreaker to Bates. Even though overall the Mules have only six losses, only one less than Tufts and Wesleyan, they are clearly not as complete of a team overall.

Bobcats Looking to Build on Success: Bates Baseball Season Preview

Nate Pajka '15 no longer has this awesome mustache, but he is hitting well for Bates thus far. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics) — Nate Pajka ’15 no longer has this awesome mustache, but he is hitting well for Bates thus far. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

2014 Record: 20-21 (7-5, Second in NESCAC East), Lost in NESCAC Playoff Semifinals

Starters Returning: 7 (6 Position Players, 1 Starting Pitcher)

Projected Lineup: (Stats are from 2014)

1B Rockwell Jackson ’15 (.310/.382/.372, 0 HR, 11 RBI)
CF/P Sam Warren ’16 (.302/.388/.442, 1 HR, 9 RBI)
C Mekae Hyde ’15 (.313/.353/.363, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
RF Nate Pajka ’15 (.261/.331/.426, 3 HR, 13 RBI)
DH Evan Czopek ’16 (.267/.380/.350, 0 HR, 8 RBI)
SS Brendan Fox ’17 (.265/.359/.306, 0 HR, 15 RBI)
3B Sam Berry ’16 (.145/.269/.164, 0 HR, 6 RBI)
LF Ryan McCarthy ’17 (.217/.294/.304/0 HR, 6 RBI)
2B Conor Reenstierna ’16 (.211/.302/.237, 0 HR, 8 RBI

RHP Will Levangie ’15 (1-3, 3.34 ERA, 6.67 K/9, 29.2 IP)
RHP Rob DiFranco ’16 (3-3, 3.60 ERA, 12.15 K/9 , 20.0 IP)
RHP Connor Speed ’18

Offensive Overview:

Bates has already played seven games so we know something about them already. The most important thing we have learned thus far is that Nate Pajka ’15 is mashing baseballs. He has a .1000 slugging percentage in large part because he already has four home runs. Pajka will need to continue hitting like that as Bates is replacing both boppers Griff Tewksbury ’14 and Kevin Davis ’14. Those two were far and away Bates’ best two hitters a year ago. However, so far the Bobcats have hit much better as a team than they did a year ago. Besides Pajka, Evan Czopek ’16 has shown massive improvement after hitting only .265 in 2014. It is unusual to see a first baseman leading off, but Rockwell Jackson ’15 is a converted outfielder. Bates had the second most walks of anybody in the NESCAC a season ago, and they will again rely on a patient approach at the plate.

Defensive Overview:

One of the biggest reasons for Bates making a run into the playoffs after a shaky start to the season was how their defense improved as the season went along. Even though they finished the season with 63 errors, third most in the NESCAC, they had only 15 errors in conference which was the third lowest mark. Though Bates will miss Davis’ bat, they won’t miss his 14 errors that he had in the field ago. Sam Berry ’15 will be an improvement at third base. Shortstop Brendan Fox ’17 has struggled somewhat early on with five errors already this season, but he was pretty sure-handed in 2014. Expect this defense to resemble the one from the end of the season and be a big positive behind the pitching staff.

Pitching Staff:

The loss of Brad Reynolds ’14 and Chris Fusco ’14 to graduation is a lot. Reynolds practically dragged the Bobcats to the postseason as he finished the season with a 2.20 ERA in 61.1 IP. Fusco was not a great pitcher always, but he ate up a lot of innings. Will Levangie ’15 is the only returning starter, but he doesn’t scream ace because of his average K/9 ratio. Rob DiFranco ’16 is making the transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation and has looked good in his two starts thus far. The third spot is still somewhat up in the air, though Connor Speed ’18 looks like he has grabbed it for now. Sam Warren ’16 will also be in the mix for that third spot. Bates relied a lot on their bullpen a year ago meaning a bunch of guys pitched between 20 and 10 innings. Guys like Marc Cunningham ’16 and Connor Colombo ’16 have a tall task in replacing DiFranco in the pen.

The Bobcats lounging in the dugout. (Courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Storylines to Watch

1. How many players make a big leap forward?

Bates lost their three bona fide stars (Davis, Tewksbury, and Reynolds) who were a huge reason for their surprise run in the East. Now a lot of players capable of breaking out remain on the roster. The Bobcats need to have a few players show remarkable year-to-year improvement in order to succeed. As noted above, Pajka appears to be in the midst of a big season, and Czopek is also smashing the ball to the tune of a .464 average thus far. A couple of other players are off to great starts as well. However, the team overall is hitting .337, an impossible pace to keep up. It is possible that a good amount of their stats are inflated by weak pitching. On the rotation end of things, a few guys could go a long way in replacing Reynolds, and the guy below is probably the most likely to come close.

2. Can Rob DiFranco ’16 adjust to starting?

DiFranco flashed his potential as a reliever last spring in large part because of his 12.15 K/9 ratio. Then he delivered a stellar summer season for the North Shore Navigators in the Futures League. He appeared in 22 games and posted a .095 ERA in 33.2 innings while walking only three batters. He ended up being voted the Navigators Player of the Year for his performance. Now he is being asked to move to the rotation. I think he will make the transition much more easily than Big League flame-outs Joba Chamberlain and Daniel Bard, the first reliever-turned-starters that come to mind. Still, he will have to adjust and learn how to pitch against batters when they come up in the order for the second or third time. Pounding the zone like he did this summer is a good place to start of course.

3. Will their unique schedule hurt them?

Because of the Bates academic calendar, the Bobcats start their season well before everybody else with a trip to California in mid-February. They just played their first game back north on Monday, and three games remain on the schedule before they open the NESCAC schedule with Trinity. Weather might end up impacting one or more of those three games. At best Bates will play four games in the month between their trip and their games against Trinity. That means their hitters will not have seen much live pitching during that time. While you can simulate at-bats in practice as much as you like, game at-bats are impossible to recreate perfectly. Of course, Bates, in their first live action in more than 20 days, put up 16 runs on Monday against MIT so maybe it won’t affect them at all.

Biggest Series: April 24-25 at Tufts

Bates plays the East favorites in the final weekend of NESCAC play, and chances are that the second spot will still be very much up in the air at that point. Playing Tufts last is not likely to help Bates much as the Jumbos will still play their regular starters, but even so the Bobcats should be playing with a lot more urgency than the Jumbos.