Author: Adam Lamont

Bowdoin Team Preview: Health is Everything for Polar Bears

Bowdoin Polar Bears

2013 Record: 19-6 (6-4 NESCAC), fourth in NESCAC, reached NESCAC quarterfinals and NCAA tournament first round.

Head Coach: Tim Gilbride, 30th season (414-296, .583)

Starters Returning: 2

F Keegan Pieri ’15

C John Swords ’15

Breakout Player: G Lucas Hausman ’16

Bowdoin’s top reserve from a year ago steps into a starting role that will require him to supply plenty of scoring from the shooting guard position. After only playing 17.2 minutes per game, the lanky junior should see upwards of 30 this year. His strength is getting to the rim, something Bowdoin has not had much of recently, and it is crucial that he again average over 80 percent on his foul shots. Hausman is the all-time leading scorer from his high school with 1750 points so he is no stranger to being a primary option. Yet he also has to be a creator for Bowdoin and improve on his assist/turnover ratio which was less than one last year.

Projected Starting Five:

Bryan Hurley '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Bryan Hurley ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

G Bryan Hurley ’15

Hurley is essentially a returning starter even though we can’t list him as one because he was injured for most of last year. He has now had more than a year and a half to recover from his knee injury and should be good to go, but his minutes might have to be managed over the course of the season. He averaged 9.4 points per game and 8.3 assists per game his sophomore year, and he will need to be the primary creator once again.

 

Lucas Hausman '16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Lucas Hausman ’16 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

G Lucas Hausman ’16

Already covered him in the breakout player section, but another thing to keep in mind is Hausman’s shooting ability. Though he was efficient from the free point line, he struggled from deep, only hitting 31 percent of his threes. Spacing was crucial for Bowdoin last year so it would hurt the Bowdoin offense if opponents can cheat off him just a step and clog up lanes.

 

 

Keegan Pieri '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Keegan Pieri ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

F Keegan Pieri ’15

Sometimes overshadowed last year because of how others played, Pieri was his usual consistent self last year, but this year will see him in a bigger role. The past two years Pieri was the primary power forward offering range out to the three point line. Because of the roster makeup of this team, he will now play at the small forward position primarily and shoot a lot more threes.

 

 

Neil Fuller '17 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
Neil Fuller ’17 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

F Neil Fuller ’17

The sophomore only played 12.1 minutes last year and will have to become a big two way player this year. He offers good size and can surprise you with his athleticism and playmaking abilities on both ends of the floor. He only shot 12 threes last year, but if Bowdoin wants to space the floor around Swords then he will have to get more comfortable shooting from deep.

 

 

John Swords '15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)
John Swords ’15 (Courtesy of Bowdoin Athletics)

C John Swords ’15

He was a revelation last year, anchoring Bowdoin on both ends of the floor but especially on the defensive end where he played well enough to merit Defensive Player of the Year honors. Health will be a concern for him as well. He has been fighting through pain in practice in a couple of places in his lower half, never a good sign for a seven footer. If healthy, there is nobody who teams have to game plan more for in the NESCAC.

 

Everything Else:

Last year was a great season for Bowdoin that saw them compete in close game after close game. Fourteen of Bowdoin’s 25 games were decided by 10 points or less, and all of their losses were by six points or less with Bowdoin having a chance to tie or win the game in the final minute of all but one of those games.

The losses of Matt Mathias ’14, Andrew Madlinger ’14 and Grant White ’14 are big ones, but Hurley and Hausman are both very capable players. Jake Donnelly ’16 will be the third guard, and depending on matchups Coach Tim Gilbride could play three guards at once like he did for much of last year. Donnelly saw last year cut short because of injury and has played very little in his first two seasons.

Last year Bowdoin leaned heavily on their starting five, and the same will be true this year. Forward Matt Palecki ’16 will fight with Fuller for that power forward spot, but it is likely he comes of the bench more often than not in order to supply energy and rebounding. After Donnelly and Palecki the bench is somewhat of a question mark. Forward Jack Hewitt ’17 will get some minutes but there just is not a lot of space in the frontcourt. Guard Blake Gordon ’18 and small forward Liam Farley ’18 look like the two freshmen most likely to see playing time early.

Expect Bowdoin to be behind on defense but ahead on offense when compared to last year. White in particular was a player who allowed the Polar Bears flexibility in its lineups and defensive matchups as he could guard every position from point guard to power forward. Bowdoin wants to play man whenever possible, but expect them to go zone like they did last year for long stretches because Swords is an eraser in the middle. The zone makes it easier for him to stay out of foul trouble but leaves Bowdoin susceptible to teams that can move the ball well.

If last year is any indication, the difference between wins and losses will be trifling in many games. An injury that sidelines Hurley or Swords for a significant portion of the season would be almost impossible to overcome. If those two stay healthy then Bowdoin is fully capable of returning to the NCAA tournament.

Football End-of-Year Awards: The Definitive Edition

The committee of two has met and after much deliberation has made their decisions. All decisions on awards are final and complaints should be addressed to 472 Smith Union, Bowdoin College. Or the comments section works, too. If you want, take a look at our Mid-Season Awards to see what’s changed. Lastly, these are our own personal opinions of who should win each award. They are not predictions on what we think the NESCAC coaches will decide.

Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics
Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics

Offensive Player of the Year: Quarterback Matt Milano ’16 (Middlebury)

“Another Middlebury quarterback? Really original pick there guys.” Well, Milano didn’t really leave us with much of a choice given how he performed in the month of the year. In fact here are Mac Foote’s stats from last year and Milano’s from 2014.

Player A: 179-289 (61.9 percent), 2004 yards, 6.9 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions.

Player B: 259-421 (61.5 percent), 2766 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.

Player B has a huge lead in yards overall and a slight lead in touchdowns, but Player A was better in yards per attempt and threw a quarter of the interceptions. You could probably tell, but Player A is Foote and Player B is Milano. We don’t put the comparison there to argue that Milano had a better year than Foote did last year, but we just want to put the numbers there so people don’t say Milano was merely a product of the Middlebury system.

The junior took a little time to get settled, but once he did, Middlebury morphed into the hottest team in the NESCAC. Milano put up 18 touchdowns over the last four weeks to go with just one interception, and his yards per attempt rose every week from Week 3 until the end of the season. His play is made even more impressive by the fact that the Panthers averaged only 2.6 yards per rush, worst in the NESCAC, putting even more pressure on the gunslinger. Milano should be even better next year when he and most of his receivers return.

Also considered: Tyler Grant ’17 (Bowdoin), Chudi Iregbulem ’15 (Trinity), Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan) and Mark Riley ’16 (Bates)

Jake Bussani '14 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)
Jake Bussani ’14 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

Defensive Player of the Year: Safety Jake Bussani ’14 (Wesleyan)

The NESCAC website only lists the top 50 tacklers, and Bussani falls well short of making that with only 30 tackles on the year. So how does a player who was only sixth on his own team in tackles win DPOY?

Well, first of all, Bussani won by the narrowest of margins over a host of other worthy players. Then it is important to understand Bussani’s role in the Wesleyan defense; a role that requires him to patrol the deep part of the field. He did that to near perfection with seven interceptions and five pass breakups. Bussani also returned two of his interceptions all the way back for touchdowns. Also, he was part of a secondary that was a good rung or two above everyone else and allowed a minuscule 124.0 yards per game through the air.

Bussani and teammate Justin Sanchez '17 smother Alex Way '16 in the Cardinals' Week 8 shutout. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Bussani and teammate Justin Sanchez ’17 smother Alex Way ’16 in the Cardinals’ Week 8 shutout. (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

Conference coaches know how good of a player he is considering he has made the All-NESCAC team three times already. Last year his stats were even less impressive with 27 tackles and four interceptions. Given how he has been even better this year, the coaches should recognize him once again.

Also considered: Chris Tamasi ’15 (Amherst), Jaymie Spears ’16 (Amherst), Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury) Mark Upton ’17 (Bates)

Coach of the Year: EJ Mills (Amherst)

Head Coach EJ Mills (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)
Head Coach EJ Mills (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Below is the conversation that we had when talking about Coach of the Year. We weren’t planning on publishing it at the time, but it’s just so juicy that we could not resist.

Adam: Alright, Coach of the Year is another interesting one. Ritter has a strong argument because of how well Middlebury did, but I think Mills deserves it.

Joe: Amherst was expected to be near the top again and Middlebury was supposed to be much worse this year.

Adam: Maybe so, but Amherst went through a lot to be undefeated. They played three QBs and switched their lead running back as the season went along. In close games they went 5-0 which is a testament, too, to Mills’ coaching. When I look at Amherst’s season it seemed like they always played a little better than I was expecting or somehow managed to win games when they got outplayed. The coach deserves credit for that.

Joe: I guess. I just feel like the Coach of the Year award is almost equivalent to a team overall achievement award, because we can’t quantify from the outside how much of a team’s success is due to the coach. I expected Amherst to beat everyone but Trinity and Wesleyan at the beginning of the year. As the year went on I got to realizing that Amherst was the best team, but I was always skeptical of Middlebury. I had them middle of the pack but they clearly overachieved. I don’t want Mills to win just because he coached the best team.

Adam: My argument would be that it wasn’t necessarily clear that Amherst really was the best team. Middlebury got better as the year went along and I think mostly because Milano got more comfortable. I didn’t expect he would get so good so fast and that is why I think Middlebury finished with six straight wins. Obviously coaching matters there, but just seems like the player still has a lot of agency, also.

Joe: True….splitting hairs here at this point. I think both are great coaches and just like talking about it.

Drew Jacobs (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)
Drew Jacobs (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

Rookie of the Year: Running Back Drew Jacobs ’18 (Middlebury)

There wasn’t an absolute standout first year this season that burst onto the scene like QB Sonny Puzzo last year or LB Tim Patricia ’16 the year before, but Jacobs was productive for the pass-heavy Panthers, and among first-year players he was first in rushing yards and third in receiving yards. His production was all over the map, as his total yards went 113, 55, 43, 154, 62, 82 and 8, as he left the game early in Week 7 and sat out all of Week 8. With another year under his belt, though, Jacobs could turn into one of the league’s best backs, but he will still have to fight off the presence of teammate Jonathan Hurvitz ’17 and classmate John Jackson ’18 for playing time.

Also considered: Slotback Frank Williams ’18 (Bates), K Zach Altneu ’18 (Hamilton), RB/KR Amman Weaver ’18 (Hamilton), WR  Mbasa Mayikana ’18 (Colby)

Zach Trause (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Zach Trause (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Special Teams Player of the Year: KR/PR/RB Zack Trause ’15

Ike Fuchs ’17 made a push for this award in Week 7 when he broke a Wesleyan record with five field goals in one game (and by going 7-7 FG and 8-8 XP in the last three weeks), but Trause’s body of work is enough for him to get the nod. Though most of the fireworks came in Week 2 when Trause followed up his third quarter kick return TD with a punt return TD early in the fourth quarter to seal the Jumbos’ victory, he was an explosive returner all year. His 32.1 yards per kickoff return were tops in the NESCAC and seventh in all of Division-III. Players need 1.2 attempts per game to qualify for leaderboards, so Trause failed to qualify with only eight punt returns, but if he had qualified, his 19.6 yards per punt return would have placed him fifth in the nation.

Trause taking back a punt 49 yards to the house against Bates in Week 2. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)
Trause taking back a punt 49 yards to the house against Bates in Week 2. (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Also considered: Ike Fuchs ’17 (Wesleyan), WR/KR/PR Ryan Rizzo ’17 (Middlebury) and K Phillip Nwosu’ 15 (Amherst)

Feel free to tell us how wrong we are in the comments section.

Basketball Season Introduction: Storylines

One sport ends, another one begins. In part because of time issues, our basketball coverage will be a little bit different than our football preseason coverage. We will still have complete team previews for every team in the NESCAC. For more league wide coverage we decided to try something new and make some videos about a variety of topics. Keep checking back all week for lots of material as we stuff all of our coverage into five days.

If you want to skip around in the video, here are the topics that we cover.

0:30: Williams: We have talked at length about the losses Williams endured in the offseason so we go over the guys coming back and where Williams stands right now.

4:26: Amherst: Aaron Toomey ’15, Tom Killian ’15 , and David Kalema ’15 are all gone, while two new Division 1 transfers come in. Amherst is still one of the most talented teams out there.

9:50: Big Men: 2014-2015 could go down as a year dominated by play inside with most of the returning stars from last year being forwards and centers.

11:40: Matt Hart’s Departure: The former Hamilton shooting guard leaves a massive void in Clinton that someone will have to fill quickly.

15:00: Tom Palleschi ’16 Returns: A great story makes Tufts the wildcard of the league this year.

The Lord Jeffs Reign Over 2014: Stock Report 11/10

Courtesy of Amherst Athletics
Courtesy of Amherst Athletics

Maybe it was the game being played under the lights or the NESN TV camera crew, but the NESCAC season ended on a high note with Amherst claiming the undisputed NESCAC championship and Little Three championship by beating their archrival Williams.

Like so many other games, the Jeffs did not look great winning the game, but that does not really matter when you go 8-0. An early miscue put Williams up 3-0, but Amherst scored the next 17 points to gain a comfortable 17-3 lead. The Ephs managed to fight back and score a touchdown with under three minutes left to make things interesting, but Jaymie Spears ’16 recovered the onside kick to ensure the victory for the Jeffs.

In a lot of ways the game was a microcosm of the season for Amherst. They leaned heavily on their defense to come up with stops, and while Austin Lommen ’16 was able to throw for 197 yards, his two interceptions were costly for Williams. Amherst finishes the season with 17 interceptions with Jaymie Spears ’16 leading the way with six on the season and one Saturday. Max Lippe ’15 was efficient but not explosive in the passing game with Gene Garay ’15 his favorite target. Williams slowed down their running game enough which was a major reason for why the game remained close.

Looking back across the season, the Lord Jeffs were not a dominant juggernaut that ran through their schedule, but they remained perfect week after week in different ways. The one constant for Amherst was their defense. The Jeffs were the only team allow less than 10 points per game, and they were able to suffocate teams like Middlebury and Williams. But even the defense faltered a little in the biggest game of the year against Wesleyan. The Cardinals scored 30 points and had 433 total yards in the game, meaning that the offense and special teams needed to come through. And they did just that with the kicking game playing a major role in the victory

The Jeffs were a team that did just enough. They didn’t necessarily control games and finished eighth in the NESCAC in time of possession, but that defense was so good that it didn’t matter most of the time. Against Williams, Amherst only held the ball for 23:54 (less than 40% of the game). The key for the Jeffs was their 5-0 record in games decided by less than 10 points. Amherst never made a mistake that cost them the game, something that is easy to take for granted until you see things like Trinity missing a game winning field goal in the final minute. The Jeffs maintained a mentality that they would never beat themselves, and won games because their opponents struggled to do the same.

That mentality starts with no-nonsense Head Coach EJ Mills and trickles down to the senior leaders on the team Max Lippe ’15 did not play in the first three and a half games, but when called upon he showed no rust and helped to steady the offense in the second half of the year. Phillip Nwosu ’15 struggled at the beginning of the year (Check out our Stock Down section from October 6) but then was carried off the field by his teammates two weeks later after hitting four field goals including the game winner. Chris Tamasi ’15 was a terror off the edge all season tying for the league lead in sacks with five. And Ned Deane ’15, although often overshadowed by Tamasi, played equally well in the middle of the Amherst defense

Almost under the radar, Mills has created a dynasty at Amherst. Before the season we spilled a lot of ink concentrating on how Wesleyan and Trinity appeared to be close to separating themselves from the rest of the NESCAC. Amherst made that look silly. Since 2009, Amherst has collected four of the last six NESCAC titles, three of them undisputed. In 2009, 2011, and now 2014 they finished with a perfect 8-0 record. Since 2009, the Jeffs’ record is 43-5 (89.6%), and the class of 2015 goes out with a 29-3 record and three NESCAC championships.

At a time when Williams has gone through one of its worst downswings in decades, the Jeffs are riding as high as ever. Mills deserves much of the credit for that. He has built a program that is built to contend year after year. Despite playing three different quarterbacks and playing the third string running back for most of the Williams game, the depth of the Amherst program made sure the Jeffs could survive those problems. Mills has done an incredible job recruiting and 2014 was another representation of what a special coach he is.

Stock Up

Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://sevenstrong.net/)
Linebacker Joe Diaz ’15 breaks up a Wesleyan pass Saturday. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://sevenstrong.net/)

These will be short because of time constraints, but we do want to mention some of the stars from this week.

Wesleyan Seniors: The most exciting game of the day came between Wesleyan and Trinity with the fourth quarter offering more than enough excitement to go around. Go ahead and read about the whole thing here. The ending was a sweet one for the best senior class at Wesleyan in a really long time. This class coincided with Coach Mike Whalen taking over, and he has a special connection with them. The accomplishments of Wesleyan over the past two years are numerous. Some of the most impressive are in 2013 the first Little Three title in 43 years and beating Trinity for the first time in 14 tries this season. The Cardinals were never able to complete an undefeated season, but that should not diminish their legacy.

Quarterback Matt Milano ’16 (Middlebury): The junior completed his first season as a starter in style by finding open receivers all day long. He finished with an insane 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 442 yards through the air. Milano came into his own as the season went along despite some early season struggles. He has more than confirmed that he is the next in line to be remembered as a great Middlebury QB. Is it enough for him to take home NESCAC Player of the Year honors? We will release our awards and All-NESCAC team tomorrow while the official announcement will come later this week.

 Linebacker Mark Upton ’17 (Bates): Upton has been a rising star for much of the season on a really good Bates defense, and he played his best game of the season Saturday. He had 11 total tackles, a sack, two pass breakups, and a fumble recovery and return for 34 yards. The fumble recovery was his first of the season after he forced four fumbles over the course of the season. His production was incredibly steady throughout the year as he never finished a game with fewer than 8 tackles. Bates will lose a good amount of players off their defense so Upton will take on even more importance next year.

Stock Down

NESCAC Seniors: Go ahead and call us saps for doing this, but we don’t see any real reason to break down who had a tough game in the final weekend of the season. The only reason that we put NESCAC seniors here is because they unfortunately have played their last game of college football. They all played for varying reasons, but for most of them it came down to loving the game too much not to play it. We would just like to thank them for everything they have given to us over the past four years.

Power Rankings 11/5 Edition

The penultimate Power Rankings offer us our clearest picture yet of where each team in the NESCAC stands. Amherst now sits clearly on top, even if their victories have come by the slimmest of margins.

1. Amherst (7-0): The Jeffs don’t win pretty, that’s for sure. Their margin of victory against Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Trinity was 11 points total. Even against Bates, Amherst struggled to pull out the victory. And yet, they are 7-0 and appear to be on their way to the NESCAC title. If we use halftime of the Colby game as the starting point of Max Lippe’s ’15 time as the QB this year, Amherst was averaging 14.6 points per game before Lippe became the starter. Since he took over, the Jeffs have averaged 30 points per game.

2. Wesleyan (6-1): This Wesleyan team did another thing that a Cardinal football team has not done in a long time last week as the Wesleyan victory at Williams was their first in Williamstown since 1984. The Cardinals also are trying to snap a 13-game losing streak against Trinity on Saturday. On his way to winning NESCAC Special Teams Player of the Week Honors (along with a host of others) last week, Ike Fuchs ’17 kicked five field goals, the most ever in a single game by a Wesleyan kicker.

3. Middlebury (5-2): Structure the schedule a little differently so you don’t play Wesleyan Week 1 and don’t play Amherst in a driving rain storm and maybe Middlebury is the class of the NESCAC. They are certainly playing as well as any team in the NESCAC right now. An underappreciated part of that success has been their veteran offensive line. Four of the five starters are seniors, and that has been a big part in making the Panthers an offense capable of both throwing and running the ball.

4. Trinity (5-2): Has Trinity slipped after losing two games in a season now in consecutive years? The Bantams did only have five losses total from 2008 to 2012. More likely, however, these last two years are more just an unusual string of unfortunate events converging. After having 10 touchdowns in the first four games of the year, Chudi Iregbulem ’15 has none in the past three in large part because of injury. Just like they did last year, Trinity will look to end their season on a high note by spoiling Wesleyan’s final game of the year.

5. Tufts (4-3): Anybody who said Tufts would be 4-3 at this point in the season can come collect their $1000 dollars right now. Offer excludes coaches and players for Tufts, though I am guessing even some of them are at least a little surprised by how successful they have been. And their level of play has risen throughout the season. A year after finishing last in the NESCAC with 11.8 points per game, the Jumbo offense has turned it around and is third in the NESCAC with 22.6 points per game.

6 Bates (3-4): After falling to 1-4, Bates turned the season around in the CBB beating Colby and then Bowdoin in hard fought victories. Another home victory to close out the season would bring Bates to 4-4 and mark the third consecutive season the Bobcats have finished .500 or better. Mark Riley ’16 has continued his great play all season and has been the best wide receiver in the NESCAC with 95 yards more than the next closest player.

7. Williams (2-5): The Ephs did not look competitive last week against Wesleyan, but as seen above, Amherst tends to play tight games. The offense has been good against most teams, but the elite defenses (Trinity and Wesleyan) have shut them down. James O’Grady ’16 has emerged as one of the better middle linebackers in the league and leads the Ephs with 58 tackles

8. Bowdoin (2-5): The Whittier field magic did not appear on Saturday for Bowdoin as the Polar Bears could not mount a late comeback against Bates. Inconsistency in the passing game, a problem all year, reared its head again because of the weather. The linebacker trio of Brendan Lawler ’16, Branden Morin ’16, and Bjorn Halvorsen ’17 have settled into their roles and are the three top tacklers on the Bowdoin defense.

9. Colby (1-6): The Mules offense broke out in Week 6 going for more than 400 yards after not going over 300 in their first five weeks. Two weeks ago Colby was again above 300 yards, but things went south again as they only managed 190 yards against Tufts. Gabe Harrington ’17 is the only qualified passer completing less than 50 percent of his passes.

10. Hamilton (0-7): Barring an upset of Bates, the Continentals will have gone two straight years without a win, but the arrow appears to be pointed in the right direction. Five of the top six tacklers on a sneaky good defense will be back in 2015. John Phelan ’16 has played an All-NESCAC caliber season with two fumble recoveries and two interceptions to go along with his team-leading 57 tackles.

Elation and Heartbreak in Hartford: The Stock Report 11/4

In another thrilling game between two of the top teams in the NESCAC, Amherst managed to give Trinity their second consecutive home loss by a 7-6 score. The win all but wraps up the NESCAC championship for Amherst assuming they can hold serve at home against Williams.

The NESCAC could be accurately described this year as a two-tiered league. Middlebury, Wesleyan, Trinity, and Amherst were all well above their competition. The only losses those teams had were against each other with Middlebury’s overtime victory over Williams the closest call to an upset. So while a lot of games lacked drama, when those teams matched up, it more often than not resulted in great games.

Stock Up

Wesleyan Defense: If you don’t give up any points in two games, we are going to recognize your level of play. Bowdoin and Williams are two of the lesser offenses in the league, but it is still quite an achievement. This is a senior laden defense with stars all across the board. Because of that, it can be hard for one player to stand out. Safety Justin Sanchez ’17 is the leading tackler for the Cardinals but has only the 17th most in the league. The one exception that has stood out even on Wesleyan is Jake Bussani ’14. The defensive back has a whopping six interceptions, two of which he brought all the way back to the house. Even though they are only fourth in points given up, Wesleyan has allowed 20 fewer yards per game than any other team. At this point it seems unlikely that Wesleyan is able to capture a NESCAC championship, but they still want to beat their arch-rival Trinity badly. Another shutout from the defense would do just that.

Wide Receiver Greg Lanzillo ’15 (Tufts): In his final home game, Lanzillo went out with a bang turning all three of his catches into touchdowns. He opened up the scoring with a 61 yard completion from Alex Snyder ’17 who was filling in for injured senior Jack Doll ’15. Then Lanzillo scored the final two touchdowns for the Jumbos as well to stretch the score to 28-0 in the third quarter. The Jumbos ended up cruising to the 28-7 victory over Colby and finished the season undefeated at home. Lanzillo played the role of the deep target man in a Tufts offense that threw the ball underneath on the vast majority of their passes.He ranks fourth on the team with 14 catches but actually leads the team in yards with 312. His 22.3 yards per catch would be first in the NESCAC if he qualified. Lanzillo along with all the other Tufts seniors were rewarded for their hardwork by a magical season. The legacy they leave will extend well past this year.

Running Back Shaun Carroll ’16 (Bates): One of the biggest problems for Bates all year has been their inability to gain consistent yards on the ground. Coming into Saturday, no player had more than 200 yards rushing. That made Carroll’s 80 rushing yards on 10 attempts all the more impressive. The performance was by far his best of the season, and he also scored the only touchdown for Bates on the day. Because of the cold wet conditions in Brunswick, offense was at a premium, but Carroll did a great job all game of getting to the outside and picking up yards. Bowdoin was never able to get the ball moving consistently against a very good front seven. The victory for Bates clinched the CBB title for them, the second time in three years that the Bobcats have won the title. This year was an especially sweet victory because of all the off the field tragedy for Bates. These seniors have gone through a lot and more than deserved the victory Saturday.

Stock Down

Trinity’s Luck: Absolute heartbreak for the Bantams who for the second consecutive year have lost to both Middlebury and Amherst. Trinity hasn’t slipped much, but it has slipped just enough to lose close games. Yet this was a game that the Bantams really felt they should have won. This was the second straight year that the margin of victory for Amherst was a missed extra point by Trinity. The missed extra point would not have mattered either if Ben Rosenblatt ’17 had been able to make a 24 yard field goal in the final minute of the game.

Being unlucky is also having to play your fourth string freshman quarterback for the first time all year against the most opportune defense in the NESCAC. Hayden Jardine ’18 struggled in his action of the year throwing for only 10 yards, and the Bantams were forced to become completely one-dimensional and turn to running QB Spencer Aukamp ’18 for most of the second half. All of this should not take away from Amherst of course. They went into Hartford against a team that had more motivation than anyone all year after what Middlebury did. The Jeffs played their game, keeping the ball on the ground, and winning the turnover battle. They played a great game and have proven themselves to be the class of the NESCAC this year, but the game Saturday leaves Trinity thinking: what if?

Photo Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)
Photo Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)

Williams: Look, we don’t know the details of the Williams football program, but something has gone wrong in Williamstown the last few years. Before the year started, Ephs fans (and us) thought that 2013 was a bottoming out for their proud squad. A 2-6 record is not what Williams fans expect, but there were a lot of good signs going forward. The Ephs really did play better than their record, but an 0-4 record in games decided by seven points or less doomed them. The defense was a strength with a breakout star in James Howe ’16. Most importantly for this year, Williams was returning 17 starters and brought in transfer quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 to improve the passing game. Everything looked great when in week one the Ephs laid the boom on Bowdoin and won 36-0. Since then the season has been a debacle in many ways. The offense has now been shut out twice at home, and the defense has allowed the second most yards in the NESCAC. After a lot of hope before the season, Williams can’t wait for 2015.

Next Week: The expectation before the season began was that the league championship would come down to the final week of the season. While the scenario of Williams stunning Amherst and Wesleyan beating Trinity to cause a tie between Amherst and Wesleyan at the top is still possible, it appears very unlikely. Given how bad Williams has looked this year, Amherst should have no trouble with the Ephs. The game in Middletown between Wesleyan and Trinity will be a good one, but the teams are playing for second place. Even beyond the championship race, the other games lack drama. Colby-Bowdoin last year was an instant classic that ended with one of the wildest endings in memory while also robbing Colby of the CBB title. This year, with Bates already having won the CBB, the two teams are playing simply for pride. Elsewhere, Middlebury-Tufts and Bates-Hamilton lack much in the way of a traditional rivalry.

Here is the thing however: rivalry games are still rivalry games. Maybe hypothetical television ratings are down next week because some fans won’t tune in, but don’t expect the game day experience to change much. All the motivation that players need is the combination of playing against a team you don’t like and trying to send the seniors out with a victory. Thousands of alums, students, and community members will still flock to Amherst for the Biggest Little Game in America. Though most of the usual drama is already played out, a lot still is left to be played for, and we will have every second of it covered.

Making the Turn Home: The Weekend Preview 11/1

Two weeks of football are left to be played, and much is still to be decided. Like any good college football schedule, the NESCAC is backloaded with the best games at the end of the season. The Little Three and CBB both play the second of their three game series in what are sure to be highly contested games.

Yet the focus of the league is squarely on Hartford, Connecticut. It was not just that Trinity lost their first home game since 2001 last week, but also how they did so. The game was not close, and nobody could argue that Trinity was the better team. Trinity is hoping it was simply a one game blip that they can rebound from.

Three to Watch

 Wide Receiver Chris Ragone ’15 (Trinity): The battle between the front seven of Amherst and offensive line of Trinity is obviously going to be tantamount (more on it later), but don’t overlook the ability of Trinity to throw the ball. Henry Foye ’15 has shown himself to be a serviceable QB, but he requires time to set his feet and hit open receivers. Ian Dugger ’16 will draw Jaymie Spears ’16 on the majority of plays, and Foye will want to avoid Spears whenever possible. That makes Ragone so important if Trinity wants to keep Amherst off balance. The senior had limited production early on with most of it coming off of big plays, but in the last two weeks he has averaged five catches and 53 yards per game. Because he only stands 5’10”, Ragone relies on exquisite route running to create space for throws. Fooling the Amherst secondary is not easy, but keep an eye out for Trinity to take a shot or two deep with a double move from Ragone early.

Wide Receiver Dan Barone ’16 (Bowdoin): Lets continue the receiver theme with the number one target for Mac Caputi ’15. The junior has 30 receptions, three times the amount of any other Bowdoin player. He works mostly out of the slot where he is mismatch for linebackers. Since a 95 yard performance at Hamilton, two great secondaries in Trinity and Wesleyan slowed his production to only 33 yards per game. The Bates secondary is no slouch either, and Barone will have to work hard to find space in the middle of the field. Look for Caputi to target Barone especially on 3rd down plays. Establishing an early rhythm in the passing game is a must for a Bowdoin offense that could not move the ball against Wesleyan. Just like Trinity must do against Amherst, the Polar Bears will not be able to run the ball every time on first and second down.

Linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 (Amherst): Tamasi was an absolute force on the field last Saturday. He had three sacks and two forced fumbles to go along with his nine total tackles. In the second quarter he had consecutive sacks to help put Tufts into 3rd and 38 from their own eight yard line. He now leads the NESCAC in tackles for loss with 11.5. Tamasi acts as an outside linebacker/defensive end most of the time. He makes up for his lack of height(5’11”) by out-leveraging larger offensive tackles. The Trinity offensive line is the biggest in the NESCAC, but that will not scare Tamasi. In fact, he is likely relishing the challenge in front of him and the rest of the Jeffs. Also, if you didn’t know, the senior is a member of the Allstate AFCA Good Works team for his community service efforts at Amherst.

The Picks

Game of the Week: Amherst (6-0) at Trinity (5-1)

In some ways Amherst is a better match-up for Trinity than Middlebury was last week. The Jeffs rely on a downhill running attack led by Nick Kelly ’17 and Max Lippe ’15 to make the throws when he needs to. Even more so than usual, this will be a game decided at the line of scrimmage. Both teams have similar mentalities as physical teams that do not try to fool you.

The best hope for Trinity is to keep the game very low scoring and have Kyle Pulek ’16 control field position. The Bantams are not built for overcoming leads in the second half and they can’t let the game get away from them like it did last week. They are going to try their hardest to control the clock by running ball with Chudi Iregbulem ’15. Even if he is 100%, running on Amherst is not an easy task. The Jeffs allow a NESCAC low 2.4 yards per carry.

Early in the year it appeared that Trinity had assembled a run game that nobody in the NESCAC would be able to slow down. They showed cracks first against Hamilton and then more visibly on the road at Bowdoin. Then Middlebury shut it down completely. Teams have felt comfortable loading the box and allowing their defensive lineman more freedom to try to get into gaps and make plays.

Earlier in the week we pointed out how the Trinity has seen their pass rush disintegrate in recent weeks.

The question of cause or effect might have confused some of you who thought, well yes of course it is a cause because sacks are bad for an offense! While that is obviously true, a sack also happens because circumstances help the defense to key on a pass. The stagnation of the running game influences everything Trinity tries to do. When they can’t move the ball, suddenly teams can send blitzes and cause confusion along the line.

And the Jeffs are a team that loves to wreck havoc behind the line scrimmage. Last week they had 12 tackles for loss in total with Tamasi and Max Lehrman ’15 combining for nine of them. The Amherst defense is not the most impressive physically, but they almost never miss an assignment.

On the other side of the ball, don’t expect any fireworks from Amherst. Max Lippe ’15 has done a lot of good things to stabilize the offense, but defenses don’t have to worry about a multitude of skill players running wild on them. Some of the Amherst sluggishness last week could be attributed to recovering from a body blow game. Amherst rose to the occasion on offense against Wesleyan, and they are likely to have a similar game this week.

The health of Iregbulem has obviously been a factor for the Bantams in recent weeks, but their problems go deeper than that. Though it seems shocking to think the Bantams could lose at home for two weeks in a row, The Jeffs have shown themselves to be the best team in the NESCAC.

Prediction: Amherst 20 over Trinity 10

Bates (2-4) at Bowdoin  (2-4): Game Prediction and writeup by Joe MacDonald. After their overtime victory last week, the Bobcats have a chance to clinch the CBB if they can figure out the Polar Bears. The Bates offense looked as balanced as it has all year as they grinded their way to 163 yards on the ground. How the two senior quarterbacks play will likely be the difference between two teams that have looked good in spurts but struggled overall. Mac Caputi ’15 struggled mightily against Wesleyan and was benched in favor of Tim Drakeley ’17 for a good portion of the game. Yet as he has before, the younger Caputi should return to the starting lineup again Saturday. Meanwhile, Matt Cannone ’15 has fought through injuries and should be healthy enough Saturday to make plays through the air and on the ground. That will be the difference in a close Bates victory.

Prediction: Bates 28 over Bowdoin 21

Wesleyan (5-1) at Williams (2-4): Before the season we were high on the possibility of Williams affirming their comeback season by beating Wesleyan at home and ending Wesleyan’s perfect season. We ranked it sixth in our ten biggest games of the year. The Ephs did take Middlebury to overtime just three weeks ago so the potential is there for a close game. Still, Jesse Warren ’15 and company will do enough on offense while the Wesleyan defense stifles the Williams offense. Both teams went into the season expecting to be run first teams, but at this point in the season have become stronger passing teams.

Prediction: Wesleyan 28 over Williams 17

Colby (1-5) at Tufts (3-3): How real is the magic in Medford? The Jumbos have a chance to get to 4-0 at home with Colby visiting. As we have said many a time, the Mules are better than that record indicates. They felt like they gave the game away against Bates in the final minutes. Gabe Harrington has to hit receivers when they are open instead of simply going for the deep ball. He went 13-38 (34%)  against Bates. The Tufts offense is just happy they don’t have to face Amherst after the Jeffs dismantled them. Jack Doll ’15 had to leave the Amherst game in the first quarter and his status is unclear for this week. The Jumbos need him in order to get to .500. No team has given us more trouble picking than Tufts, but we are going to go with our gut and say they do what appeared impossible. Tufts will go undefeated at home.

Prediction: Tufts 35 over Colby 28

Middlebury (4-2) at Hamilton (0-6): It is tempting to think this is a trap game for the Panthers coming off of their big win and having to travel to New York. We just don’t see Middlebury allowing themselves to get into a dogfight with a Hamilton team that has shown some friskiness but no results. The array of weapons at Matt Milano’s ’15 disposal is too much for Hamilton to slow down. Chase Rosenberg ’17 has averaged only 129 yards since his first game of the season. It will be a challenge for him to get even that amount against a Middlebury secondary that has come into its own as a unit. We said it was best to catch the Panthers early, and unfortunately for Hamilton, that is not the case.

Prediction: Middlebury 34 over Hamilton 13

Last Week: 3-2

Season Record: 24-6

10 Statistics That Might Surprise You

The Crowd storms the field after Tufts' first win of the season (courtesy of Tufts University)
The Crowd storms the field after Tufts’ first win of the season (courtesy of Tufts University)

Editors Note: This article was co-written by Joe MacDonald and Adam Lamont

Between our statistics page and the wealth of information over at the NESCAC site, a football aficionado can spend hours pouring over statistics if he/she were to feel so inclined. However, most of us don’t have that kind of time to do that type of thing. Fortunately for you, we make it our job to do just that. So here are 10 statistics that don’t jump out but nevertheless tell us a lot about how the conference has been shaking out, and frankly are just plain interesting.

1. Wesleyan Defensive 3rd Down Percentage: 23 percent

This is the lowest mark in the NESCAC by a good deal and is an insanely low percentage in general. The lowest NFL percentage is the Indianapolis Colts at 31.1 percent, and Wesleyan is sixth nationwide in Divison-III for defensive third down percentage. Even in Amherst’s victory over the Cardinals, the Jeffs only converted 3-14 third downs. Primarily responsible for this is the Cardinals all-star secondary which is the best in the NESCAC. Windows simply don’t exist downfield on clear passing downs. Another statistic for how good the Wesleyan secondary is: they are allowing 4.6 yards per passing attempt, the only team allowing fewer than five yards.

2. Williams Tackles For Loss Per Game: 4.33

Coming into the season the expectation was that the William defensive line was its strongest unit, capable of keeping the Ephs in games. After all it was a unit that had 19 sacks in 2013 and returned their three top sack performers this year. But the line has not repeated its production from last year. James Howe ’16 has enjoyed steady play but has not had a single sack after his breakout campaign last year. That has not necessarily been because of offenses focusing on him since nobody else has seen an uptick in production this year. A big reason for Williams’ disappointing season is their inability to make big plays on the defensive front.

3. Hamilton First Downs Allowed Per Game: 15.16

Given the Continentals record of 0-6, it would seem likely that the defense allows a lot of first downs per game, but their defense actually ranks second behind Trinity (13.83) in the category. Maybe they just let up a lot of big plays? That has something to do with it but not a lot as Hamilton is still only fifth in opponents’ yard per game. The reason for it is that the Hamilton defense doesn’t see many plays. Opponents only run 63 plays against them a game, the lowest mark in the NESCAC.

4. Number of Consecutive Years that Middlebury Has Had the NESCAC’s Leading Passer: 6

And Matt Milano ’16 appears ready to make it seven years in a row. Mac Foote ’14 led the league for three years in row after Donnie McKillop ’11 started the streak in 2008. Jesse Warren ’15 is only 64 yards behind Milano and Austin Lommen ’16 is also only 92 yards back. Still those two have to face very tough defenses in their remaining games while Milano has to face Hamilton and Tufts, two defenses that he should be able to exploit. The most likely possibility that keeps Milano from winning the passing crown is if the Panthers get up big early in both games and they run the ball the entire second half.

5. NESCAC Rank of Middlebury’s Top Receiver: Ninth

Last year Middlebury boasted three of the top four receivers in terms of yards, but this year has not seen any one player dominate. Grant Luna ’17 was the number one target the first couple of weeks, but injuries have kept him out the last two games. In his absence Matt Minno ’16, the team’s leading wideout last year, has risen to the occasion with Luna out and supplied five touchdowns in two weeks. Brendan Rankowitz ’15 has been a consistent threat having multiple catches in every game. Those three rank ninth through eleventh in receiving yards. Following them, running back Drew Jacobs ’18 is the safety valve tied for the lead in receptions for Middlebury, and Ryan Rizzo ’17 has come on strong in the past two weeks with 14 catches in place of Luna. Oh, by the way, with the exception of Rankowitz, all of these guys are back next year.

6. Solo Tackles for Mike Stearns ’17 (Tufts): 56

The next closest total in the NESCAC is 41 by Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury). What makes it so amazing it is that Stearns plays corner. The Tufts coaches trust his instincts and give Stearns free reign to come up quickly on run plays in order to seal off the edge. Stearns’ ability to avoid blockers and make a sure-handed tackle also helps the Jumbos to send extra pressure up the middle because they know they won’t be burned on the edges. Two things to keep in mind however: firstly, Tufts faces the most plays per team and secondly, Stearns’ solo tackles are likely inflated a little by scorekeepers because they are able to clearly distinguish his plays.

7. Carries for Bowdoin’s Tyler Grant ’17: 162

That’s 134 more carries than the next man on the depth chart, Garrett Thomas ’17, and Grant has accounted for 70 percent of the Polar Bears’ carries in 2014. Grant has 53 more carries than Chudi Iregbulem ’15, who is second in the NESCAC. His six touchdowns are tied for second in the league. And Grant has already surpassed last year’s carry total by 65. Time to give credit where credit is due to this Bowdoin workhorse.

8. Colby’s Field Goal Percentage: 25 percent

Granted, kicker Louw Scheepers ’15 has only attempted four field goals, but he’s still only knocked one through. Funny enough, his make, from 46 yards, was longer than any of his misses (42, 40, 31). Scheepers has been solid on his extra points though, making 11-12. Scheepers miss in OT from 42 last week was the only real significant miss he’s had, but still he could be called on over the final two weeks to make a big kick or two. What’s surprising is that Scheepers was 7-11 on field goals last season, so he’s better than he’s put forward so far.

9. All-Purpose Yards for Tufts’ Zack Trause ’15: 871

Trause leads the league in all-purpose yards, and it’s not particularly close. The utility man averages 145.2 yards per game, while Iregbulem clocks in at second with 122.4. Trause is the league’s leading punt returner and is second in kick return yards (but first in average with 36.4 yards per kick return) in addition to his efforts on the offensive side of the ball.

10. Tufts’ Total Attendance: 10,993

We can’t put too much stock into the recorded attendances for NESCAC football games, because there’s no gates and spectators often come and go. But just have faith in the numbers for a moment. That Tufts has put 3,000 more proverbial butts in the seats than any other team in the NESCAC goes to show how the football culture is shifting in Medford. It also helps if you win.

Panthers Make Rude Guests in Hartford: Stock Report 10/26

Every streak will end at some point, and Trinity’s vaunted home winning streak of 53 games finally came to a stunning finish on Saturday. Like any streak of such length, the Bantams endured many close calls before Saturday, but the Panthers sucked out any potential drama long before the final whistle. Middlebury scored the first 20 points of the game, and a Brendan Rankowitz ’15 touchdown catch with 6:07 left made it 27-7, essentially ending the game.

So just how did Middlebury manage to take down the unbeatable Bantams? Well, considering the margin of victory, the simple answer is that Middlebury just outplayed Trinity. From a more philosophical point of view, this was speed beating size. The Trinity starting offensive line averages 280 pounds while the three down lineman for Middlebury average 247 pounds. That didn’t matter as Middlebury was still able to get to the ball.

Trinity finished the game with 85 yards rushing on 38 attempts, a 2.2 yards per carry average. The last time Trinity was held to under 100 yards rushing was October 2, 2010 when Williams held the Bantams to 87 yards rushing. Not coincidentally that was also a loss for Trinity. The 85 yards was the lowest total in a game since October 11, 2008 when Tufts (yes, Tufts) held the Bantams to 50 yards rushing. (Of course in that game Trinity threw for 470 as well to win a wild overtime game 28-27.)

The fact that the two top tacklers for Middlebury were defensive backs tells us that while the Panthers won the line of scrimmage, they didn’t do it conventionally. Waves of defenders threw themselves at the point of attack on running plays without exposing any lanes for cutbacks. Trinity’s longest run in the game was 19 yards.

Matt Minno '16 hauls down one of his three touchdowns in the Panthers' victory. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)
Matt Minno ’16 hauls down one of his three touchdowns in the Panthers’ victory. Courtesy of Greg Sullivan (http://www.sevenstrong.net/TrinityFootball)

Not having Sonny Puzzo on the roster for Trinity hurt the Bantams because Foye is not a runner. Puzzo gave the Trinity offense a little more diversity and defenses had more difficulty keying on one player. Spencer Aukamp ’18 has the running capabilities to replicate Puzzo, but Aukamp is not as polished of a passer. Henry Foye ’15 was able to come back from a touchdown deficit last week against Bowdoin, but he is not a quarterback capable of leading a team back from the hole Trinity found themselves in early in the second half.

Meanwhile, Matt Milano ’16 played a nearly perfect game. He went 25-36 for 286 yards. Though he threw one interception, he made up for it with four touchdowns. Matt Minno ’16 reemerged from the shadows last week against Bates, and he confirmed that he is back with his best game of the season: a three touchdown, 90 yard day. Milano actually played better than Mac Foote ’14 did last year when Middlebury beat Trinity in Vermont. Throw out the debacle against Amherst, and Milano has been stellar.

The running game led by Drew Jacobs ’18 was nothing special, but it did enough to keep Trinity honest. The Bantams could not load up on 3rd and long and come after Milano, especially because the Middlebury offense is designed to get the ball out quickly.

Finally, credit should be given to the Middlebury special teams which had two big plays early in the second half. The first was a gutsy on-side kick call coming out of the half. Rather than giving Trinity the ball back with the score 13-0 Middlebury, the Panthers dialed up an onside kick that they recovered. Two plays later, Milano hit hit Minno for his third touchdown of the game. The next drive Trinity tried a fake punt on 4th and 2 from their own 43-yard line, but Middlebury was not fooled at all. Michael Budness ’15 gained only one yard and the Trinity gambled failed.

The last time Trinity lost at home was to Williams in September of 2001. Every Trinity football player starting with the class of 2006 until the class of 2014 was undefeated at home. The thing for Trinity is that their path to a NESCAC championship remains unchanged. If they can rally and beat Amherst and then Wesleyan, they will at least earn a share of the NESCAC title. With only two weeks to still go, both Connecticut schools have now lost when before the season it looked possible that both would go undefeated until they faced each other.

Stock Up

Safety Dan Pierce ’16 (Middlebury): Seems like every week we highlight another Panther defensive player that has emerged as a cog in a defense that has become the strength of Middlebury. Pierce had a great all around game totaling 12 tackles and two interceptions. He had the play of the game midway through the second quarter. With Middlebury up 7-0, the Bantams drove the ball down to the five yard line. Then Pierce picked off Henry Foye ’15 in the end zone and returned it 71 yards to the Trinity 29-yard line. Four plays later, Middlebury punched it in to go up by two touchdowns forcing Trinity out of their comfort zone. Pierce now leads the Panthers in tackles on the season and is fourth overall in the NESCAC. We know it is early, but given that players like Pierce, Tim Patricia ’16,  and Nate Leedy ’17 will all be back on defense along with Milano leading an offense that will return all of its playmakers with the exception of Rankowitz, Middlebury should be the favorite entering next year.

Wide Receiver Steven Kiesel ’15 (Williams): Saturday was just another ho-hum day for the senior receiver as he finished with five catches, 62 yards, and a touchdown that ended up being the difference in Williams’ 21-14 victory. Kiesel’s performance was notable because of how normal it has become. He has had at least five receptions in all but one of Williams’ games and now leads the NESCAC in receptions for the year. With the Ephs backed up on their own one, Austin Lommen ’16 went to his favorite target and hit Kiesel for a 32-yard gain that ended with Kiesel’s touchdown catch. The Williams running game has struggled for long stretches of this season, and Kiesel has been the most reliable source of offense for the Ephs. It might be a longshot given they are only 2-4, but Williams can salvage their season starting Saturday with a big upset over Wesleyan.

Quarterback Matt Cannone ’15 (Bates): The CBB picked up right where it left off last year in terms of excitement. The Bobcats QB returned just in time to get the Bates offense moving. He was still bothered by his ankle so that he was not much of a threat out of the pocket, but Cannone still played admirably. He went 18-32 for 203 yards and four touchdowns. His main target was Mark Riley ’16, but with the game on the line he used Riley as a diversion and went to Frank Williams ’18. On 4th and goal, Cannone found Williams for the game tying touchdown with under a minute left. Then in overtime the same connection worked again for a 25 yard touchdown and the victory. The win gives Bates the early lead in the CBB with the Bobcats visiting Bowdoin this week. Now Cannone will look to seal the CBB.

Running back LaShawn Ware ’17 (Hamilton): Sometimes, you have to admit that you’ve made a mistake. At the beginning of the season, in our Breakout Players of 2014 article, we highlighted Hamilton backs Rico Gonzalez ’16 and converted safety Jeff Hopsicker ’15. Gonzalez hasn’t been much of a factor all year, and had two carries against Williams. Hopsicker started out as the team’s primary back, but has seen his carries total dwindle ever since Week 2. When we spoke with head coach Dave Murray at the beginning of the year, he highlighted the speedy Ware as someone who could make an impact, but we just saw too much competition in the backfield. Well, Ware now leads the team in rushing yards and yards per carry, and racked up a career-high 115 yards against Williams. It looks like Murray has settled into a two-headed attack, with Ware moving the ball down the field and Amman Weaver ’18 getting the chances to punch it in near the goal line. It’s another lost season for the Continentals, but there will be weapons back in 2015.

Stock Down

Tufts Offensive Execution: A few stats from the Tufts-Amherst game: Tufts first downs – 11, Amherst first downs – 12. Tufts total yards – 249, Amherst total yards – 244. Tufts return yards – 78, Amherst return yards – 93. So how was this game 30-3 in favor of the Jeffs? As the Tufts website notes, every single Amherst scoring drive started in Tufts territory. Seventy-nine of those return yards came on interceptions for Amherst, with Chris Gow ’16 returning one Alex Snyder ’17 pass to the house. The Lord Jeff defense is very good and known for their takeaways, but this was another level. A big reason for that was because Jack Doll ’15 did not start and only threw the ball six times. It would have been extremely difficult for the Jumbos to upset Amherst at home with the Jeffs smelling a conference championship, but the offense let down a defense that played much better than the score indicated.

Bowdoin Secondary: One week after allowing Henry Foye to enjoy his best game of the season, Jesse Warren ’15 threw for five touchdowns against the Bowdoin secondary. Early in the game Bowdoin was getting pressure, but Warren converted two third downs of more than 12 yards on the first touchdown drive. For the game Wesleyan was 10-17 on third down. The Polar Bears have had problems slowing down the opposition’s passing attack all year with teams finding ways of making big plays consistently. Though Jay Fabien ’15 was slowed, Josh Hurwitz ’15 stepped up and had three touchdown catches. The Bowdoin secondary will have to rise to the occasion and stop Bates’ Riley on Saturday.

Colby’s Depth: The brutal opening schedule robbed Colby of a good deal of their players, and in an effort to get their best talent on the field, wide receivers Luke Duncklee ’15 and Nick Joseph ’15 have started playing on defense as well. Many NESCAC players went both ways in high school so they are somewhat used to it, but doing it in college is especially hard because it is much harder to take any plays off. The duo played well Saturday totaling 14 tackles between them, but it was not enough for Colby to hold off Bates. Advocates for expanding the current roster to more than 75 players might point to Colby’s issues as evidence. It is possible that the issue comes up again in conversations between coaches and administrators, but schools are unlikely to look at this one instance and consider it enough reason to change a longstanding rule.

 

Is an Upset on the Horizon? The Weekend Preview 10/23

Conventional thinking for this season has been that three teams have a legitimate chance at winning the NESCAC title-Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity-and that the title would come down to the results of the games between those teams. This week will be the strongest test of that thinking as all three top teams face varying challenges this weekend. Middlebury traveling to Trinity is the highlight, but Tufts visiting Amherst and Bowdoin at Wesleyan could also offer intrigue. The big advantage for the top three teams is that they all play at home, though on the season home teams are only 12-13.

If one of the top three teams loses, then the final two weeks could become much more complicated. It would not necessarily drop Amherst or Trinity from the conversation because both teams are still undefeated, but Wesleyan knows they must win out to have a chance. Elsewhere the CBB gets underway with Colby and Bates, and Hamilton looks to notch their first win at home against Williams.

Three to Watch

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan): Perhaps lost somewhat in Wesleyan’s loss last Saturday and their inability to run the ball, has been how good Warren has played this season. The knock on him last year was that he didn’t need to throw the ball often and his stats were a product of teams loading the box to stop the run. This year he has proven that wrong in all respects. He is averaging over 45 more yards per game while also being more efficient as his yards per attempt is up 0.9 yards and his completion percentage has edged up from 64.7 percent to 66.9 percent. To top it off he still has only thrown one interception this year while also tossing nine touchdowns. Last week Trinity was forced to turn to Henry Foye ’15 and air the ball out against Bowdoin, and a similar situation could see itself play out again this week. If Warren continues his stellar play, the Cardinals are in good hands.

Linebacker Tom Szymanski ’15 (Trinity): The Bantams defense is a very deep unit that has talent all across the board, but Szymanski has been the leading man so far. His 31 tackles are the most on the team. He has also been a force in the pass rush with two sacks on the season. The senior had his biggest game a few weeks ago against Hamilton totaling 12 tackles. The Bantams are banged up on defense (more on that later), and Szymanski will have to be a steadying force to make Middlebury one-dimensional through the air. Even though the Panthers have not run the ball particularly well (second to last in the NESCAC per carry), they will try to establish something on the ground.

Running Back Nick Kelly ’17 (Amherst): After some early season missteps, the Amherst offense seems to be on track with Kelly as the main horse for the Jeffs. Kenny Adinkra ’16 was the starter entering the season, but injuries have forced him to miss multiple games. Kelly has stepped in and been a force. His first highlight came when he iced Bates with a 42-yard touchdown. After only gaining 28 yards in week two, Kelly has busted out for three straight 100+ yard performances. Kelly is a powerful back who also has breakaway speed once he turns the corner and gets a full head of steam. Amherst will need him to approach the 100 yard mark again this week, but it might not be as easy as you might expect against Tufts. Though they are not usually associated with a strong run defense, the Jumbos stonewalled Williams for 46 yards on 29 carries last Saturday.

Trinity Looks to Make Sure There is NPITC
Trinity Looks to Make Sure There is NPITC (No Poop in the Coop)

The Picks

Game of the Week: Middlebury (3-2) at Trinity (5-0)

Trinity survived on the road last Saturday, and they are more than happy to be back at home protecting their 53-game home winning streak. Meanwhile Middlebury comes in on a two-game winning streak and hoping for a signature win to their season.  Sources told us this morning that Chudi Iregbulem ’15 will give it a go tomorrow after not playing last week.

Middlebury has lost both of its games by one touchdown, and their main issue has been offense in those games. Matt Milano ’16 and company have put up 28.3 points per game in their victories but only 7.0 in their two losses. Granted, they played Amherst in a driving rain storm that was a huge boon for the Jeffs in terms of stopping the Panther passing game. The Bantams stack right up there with Wesleyan and Amherst on defense allowing only 7.6 points per game.

The Trinity defense has been even better than their stats as well. Teams have only scored two touchdowns on drives of more than 40 yards through their first five games. The rest of the touchdowns given up by the Bantams were because of short fields after a turnover. They are strongest against the run allowing only 2.5 yards per carry, and the Panthers should expect few lanes open.

Injuries on the defensive side of the ball are a major issue. Safety Mike Mancini ’15, linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14, and cornerback Brian Dones ’15 are all questionable for the game because of injury. Head Coach Jeff Devanney has said he thinks it is possible all of them play, but as Iregbulem’s injury shows, the Bantams do not reveal a lot of information about injuries. Not revealing injuries is of course part of the game and Trinity is under no obligation to tell anybody who will be playing. However, at this point Trinity appears to be healthy, and all those players will try to play tomorrow.

Dones in particular is important because when healthy he can shut down one side of the field. Grant Luna ’17 did not play last week due to a concussion so his status is up in the air, but Matt Minno ’16 and Brendan Rankowitz ’15 are more than capable of making plays for Milano and Luna’s replacement, Ryan Rizzo ’17, is just as athletic as (and faster than) every receiver on the Panthers’ roster. The major difference between this year’s Middlebury offense and those of past years’ is the lack of a pass catching tight end. William Sadik-Khan ’14 and Billy Chapman ’13 were both big targets in the middle of the field that were match-up nightmares for NESCAC teams. No tight end has more than five catches on the year right now for Middlebury.

On the other side of the ball Middlebury will look to make Trinity rely on the passing game. Bowdoin did a good job of this last week, but Henry Foye ’15 proved he could make throws when it mattered. In the second half Foye had a handful of throws down the field that helped make his receivers open. This entire video of Trinity coach Jeff Devanney going over game film is worth watching, and he does a good job of breaking down some of Foye’s throws starting at 9:15.

The Middlebury secondary should be more up to the task of shutting down Ian Dugger ’16 and Chris Ragone ’15. Nate Leedy ’17 is the top corner for the Panthers, and safeties Matt Benedict ’15 and Dan Pierce ’16 make a lot of big plays as well. On the season the Panthers have allowed the second least amount of passing yards though per attempt teams fare reasonably well against them.

If Iregbulem is still slowed then the Panthers have a good shot at pulling the upset. It will be imperative for Milano not to make any costly mistakes. Since throwing for two interceptions against Wesleyan, he has passed for eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Still, though health is an issue for Trinity, the Bantams will have enough to keep the streak alive for at least one more week.

Prediction: Trinity 27 over Middlebury 21

Tufts (3-2) at Amherst (5-0): No team has a bigger disparity between their home and away performance than the Jumbos, and unfortunately for them Amherst hosts this week, but that doesn’t mean Tufts has no chance. Jack Doll ’15 is right up there with Warren for top QB in the NESCAC so far, but throwing on the Jeffs is always difficult. As mentioned before, Tufts loves to get the ball into the flats quickly, something that Amherst is adept at covering. Gene Garay ’15 emerged as Max Lippe’s ’15 security blanket underneath last week. Tufts needs its defensive stars Mike Stearns ’17 and Matt McCormack ’16 to be presences all day long in order to slow down Amherst. The Tufts have a good chance of getting to .500 on the year, but it won’t happen this week.

Prediction: Amherst 31 over Tufts 21

Bowdoin (2-3) at Wesleyan (4-1): (Editor’s Note: Prediction and game blurb by Joe MacDonald) How the Cardinals respond mentally to their let down last week will go a long way in this game. Given all the seniors on the roster, the likelihood is they come out looking for revenge. Besides their Week 1 debacle, the Polar Bears tend to keep games close and have looked better every week. The Wesleyan defense will work hard to force turnovers to help put the offense into good situations. Jay Fabien ’15 has become the number one target for Warren through the air, and Lou Stevens ’17 enjoyed his biggest game of the year on the ground last week. Meanwhile Dan Barone ’16 has cemented himself as Bowdoin’s number one option and is enjoying a top five receiver caliber season. The Polar Bears don’t have enough talent to hang for 60 minutes, and Wesleyan will pull away.

Prediction: Wesleyan 31 over Bowdoin 17

Our favorite NESCAC football photo of all time (courtesy of Bates Athletics)
Our favorite NESCAC football photo of all time (courtesy of Bates Athletics)

Colby (1-4) at Bates (1-4): The Mules busted out last week, and if they play anything like they did last week, then Bates could be in trouble. Some regression should be expected however, and in the opener of the CBB this should be a close one. Strong play by the Bates defense has only led to one victory so far because of offensive struggles exacerbated by injuries especially to Matt Cannone ’15. It is still uncertain whether Cannone will play Saturday, and if he does how effective he can be because of his ankle injury. Both teams have endured grueling schedules to start the year, and are more than ready for this game to get underway. Whether Bates can find consistent gains on the ground will be the difference. The Bobcats want to hold the ball for the majority of the game and keep Luke Duncklee ’15 and Nick Joseph ’15 from getting loose deep. Consider this one basically a coin flip between these two teams, but we will give Colby the edge based on last week’s results.

Prediction: Colby 21 over Bates 20

Williams (1-4) at Hamilton (0-5): The wheels fell of the bus somewhere along the way from Clinton to Waterville last week for the Continentals, and the same can be said for Williams too. The Hamilton defense has been a hard luck group this year as they place last in the NESCAC in points allowed per game (32.6) but are fifth in yards allowed per game (334.0). Williams will look to get Alex Scyocurka ’14 the ball at least 25 times on the ground in an attempt to wear down the Continentals. Chase Rosenberg ’17 has to do a better job making the easy throw when open. He has not had a single game with a completion percentage above 60 percent. As long as the Ephs show up motivated and ready to play, they should keep Hamilton in the loss column.

Prediction: Williams 24 over Hamilton 14

Last Week: 4-1

Season Record: 21-4