Tag: Alex Berluti

Underestimate the Champions at Your Own Risk: Amherst Season Preview

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Nick Kelly ’17 is back along with a lot of other friends in the backfield. (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

Projected Record: 7-1

Projected Offensive Starters (*Five Returning)

QB: Alex Berluti ’17
RB: Nick Kelly ’17*
WR: Jackson McGonagle ’16*
WR: Brian Ragone ’17*
WR: Nick Widen ’17
TE: Rob Thoma ’17
LT: Sam Hart ’16*
LG: Elijah Zabludoff ’18
C: Jim Daniels ’16*
RG: Cole Boehmer ’16
RT: Mitch Arthur ’18

Projected Defensive Starters: (*Eight Returning)

DE: Niyi Odewade ’17*
DT: Paul Johnson ’17*
DE: Sam Caldwell ’16*
OLB: Jack Drew ’16
ILB: Thomas Kleyn ’16*
ILB: Taylor Dean ’16
OLB: Parker Chapman ’17*
CB: Jaymie Spears ’16*
SS: Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16*
FS: Chris Gow ’16*
CB: Stefan Soucy ’17

Offensive MVP: Running Back Nick Kelly ’17

Kelly had a great sophomore season, and we covered much of that already in our Player of the Year Preview, and so I wanted to talk about another skill player for Amherst who will also be a huge part of the offense. The wide receiving group is deep and is led by senior captain Jackson McGonagle ’16. The senior, who also is a great punter, was the primary deep threat for Amherst a year ago and will receive even more targets this year. Yet, a lot of his total yards came on one long touchdown against Bowdoin. He had twelve of his eighteen catches in the first three games of the season and saw his production take a major hit after that. Much of that can be traced to the change at quarterback to Max Lippe ’15, who sometimes threw to Gene Garay ’15 even if the entire defense was covering him. McGonagle has a good connection with whomever ends up as the QB this season, and that should help him have a banner senior year.

Defensive MVP: Cornerback Jaymie Spears ’16

We already talked about Spears, and not to give anything away but we will have more about him and the rest of the Amherst secondary later this week. Instead, focus on the man in the middle, inside linebacker Thomas Kleyn ’16. Last year Kleyn was the third leading tackler for Amherst, and he benefited from playing aside the departed Ned Deane ’15 in the middle of the defense. Kleyn got stronger and stronger as the year went along, with 37 of his 60 tackles coming in the final four games of the year. At 5’11” and 208 pounds (though that weight is from last year, and he has most likely gained a few pounds of muscle in the offseason), he can be described as that most desirable of linebacker traits: rugged. With the big defensive line taking up blockers in front of him, Kleyn has to be aggressive and fill gaps on run defense all season as his linebacking fellows get up to speed.

Biggest Surprise of Camp So Far: Guard Elijah Zabludoff ’18

Right off the bat, Zabludoff’s high school, John Bosco Prep in California (not to be confused with Don Bosco Prep in New Jersey) should catch your eye. In his senior season, John Bosco Prep went 16-0 and won the California state title. Zabludoff was a multi-year starter there, and even wrote about his senior year for the LA Times. Now in his sophomore year  at Amherst he has seized control of the right guard position with a great camp so far. At 300 pounds, he has a size advantage over almost every NESCAC defensive lineman. He isn’t some stiff either, and he will be an important part of making sure that the Jeffs can run the ball inside.

Biggest Game: Home vs. Trinity, November 7, 1:00 PM

Amherst has beaten Trinity in back-to-back years by one point, and the difference both years has been a missed extra point. Not that you can boil down the two games to simply that, but the kicking game has been a big advantage for Amherst. The Bantams will put in a little extra for this game given the recent history. The Jeffs have other huge games, but this will be their final big test of the season, and if they come in undefeated, a win would mean that they would most likely go perfect in back-to-back seasons. The game last season was dominated by the defenses. The Jeffs managed only 156 yards and nine first downs. The one touchdown for Amherst came courtesy of a short field after a Chris Tamasi ’15 forced fumble and recovery. Kelly was stonewalled all day and averaged 2.4 yards per carry. The Bantams were playing with their backup QB and could do nothing through the air. The game this year will in all likelihood follow a similarly lo- scoring script.

Best Tweet: Amherst never misses a chance to remind you that they have won a lot recently (rightfully so).

Summary:

I’m going to start with the negative stuff and get all of that out of the way early. First, the Jeffs had an amazing run last year, but didn’t they get just a little bit lucky? In the very first game of the year at home against Bates, the Lord Jeffs allowed a touchdown with 1:16 left to make the score 7-6. The Bobcats, sensing this was their best opportunity to win and also maybe not trusting their freshman kicker in a big situation, went for two and the win. Amherst knocked down the pass attempt, and Kelly sealed the win with a long run after the Jeffs recovered the onside kick. And that’s the game you don’t even remember that was close!

Then there was the rainstorm against Middlebury, Phillip Nwosu ’15 making a 41-yard field goal to tie the game against Wesleyan, and the Trinity missed field goal from 24 yards away that would have won the game in the final seconds. The Jeffs had to go 5-0 in single digit games to win the title. No team can flirt with a loss so many times and not eventually lose one. There is definitely skill involved in winning close games, but if you play a lot of close games and win them all, luck has to be a factor.

If the Jeffs play that many close games again, they will not go 8-0. I would bet my firstborn on it.

Then you have to look at the personnel losses. The starting quarterback, leading wide receiver (who had twice as many catches as anyone else), three longtime offensive line starters, an All-League kicker, and the two leading tacklers are all gone. That is a lot. Amherst has traditionally been able to withstand those types of losses, and they do have possible replacements or ways to replace them somehow. Yet, those players are still very much question marks.

The best place to start is at the quarterback spot, a position that has been unsettled for the past four seasons. Lippe was the starter essentially for three years, but he never completely won over the coaching staff and they were constantly tinkering with who played. The Jeffs once again have a quarterback battle going on. Coach EJ Mills was unwilling to commit to either Reece Foy ’18 or Alex Berluti ’17 when I talked to him last week. That might have changed after the scrimmage this weekend, but we won’t know until the opening kickoff who is going to be playing most of the time. What makes the decision so hard for Mills is that Foy and Berluti are very similar players. Both are short, can run, and have strong yet inaccurate arms. Foy is a slightly better runner, and Berluti is a little taller and better at standing in the pocket, but Mills is not choosing between a clash of styles. That similarity means he will likely play both guys and wait for one of them to grab the job in the first week or two of the season.

So I’ve spent a lot of time bashing the Jeffs, but there is a lot to love about this team. The defense is going to be special, and it is probably more talented than it was last year. The strength is the secondary where Spears, Chris Gow ’16, and Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16 are all potential All-NESCAC talents this year. Up front Paul Johnson ’17 is a legitimate 300-pounder, something rarely seen on the defensive line in the NESCAC. The Jeffs also still have a lot of depth in the front seven meaning they can keep all of their defensive starters fresh.

At several spots where talented players graduated there won’t be much of a drop off. Charlie Wall ’18 replaces Nwosu, and even if he can’t quite fill Nwosu’s shoes, he should be a more than competent kicker. Linebackers Jack Drew ’16 and Parker Chapman ’17 both have to take on slightly bigger roles this year, but they produced a lot already last year and make that position as strong as ever. Sam Hart ’16 and Jim Daniels ’16 will ensure that the offensive line continues to create holes and give time for the quarterback. That running attack will be a good one. Besides Kelly, Amherst can rely on Kenny Adinkra ’16 and Raheem Jackson ’17 to carry the ball. All three of those backs have slightly different skill sets that the offense will be able to use.

The talent is still there for Amherst, but the margin for error is thin. The Jeffs first big test is that third game against Middlebury, and they will have to have figured out their quarterback situation by then. If one of Foy and Berluti emerges as an above-average starter, then a repeat 8-0 season is more than feasible. However, I don’t see that happening in time and think the Jeffs fall just short against the Panthers.

 

The Halfway Pole – Stock Report 10/13

If you missed it, we recapped every game Saturday in our wrap-up, and now in the Stock Report we get into some hard analysis of the weekend. The top three of Wesleyan, Amherst, and Trinity, had to sweat things out for about a half before their superior depth and skill wore down their opponents attempting big upsets.

With half of the NESCAC season now over, trends are clear. New players are still emerging, and injuries are beginning to really be felt. Here’s your Stock Report.

Stock Up

Quarterback Max Lippe ’15 (Amherst) – After seeing the vast majority of the snaps in 2013, Lippe did not see the field at all in the first three and half games this year. That was until Coach EJ Mills turned to Lippe with the offense unable to generate anything against the Colby defense. The senior responded brilliantly in his first snaps completely changing the look of the Amherst offense. The Jeffs scored four offensive touchdowns in the second half with Lippe going 7-9 for 142 yards and throwing two touchdowns. Mills said that injuries limited Lippe early and that is a big reason why he had not played yet this year, but the senior was still the third quarterback to come off the bench on Saturday behind Alex Berluti ’17 and Reece Foy ’18. From his first throw Lippe looked completely in control, and played some of his finest football at Amherst. The Jeffs have been unable to settle on any QB in the last two years, but the reemergence of Lippe could not have come at a better time. This Saturday Amherst travels to Wesleyan in the biggest game of the season so far.

Courtesy of Megan Robertson (Amherst '15)
Courtesy of Megan Robertson (Amherst ’15)

Wesleyan Defense – We have mostly concentrated on the negatives with Wesleyan because they are not playing at the same level that they were in 2013. Those struggles however have been limited mostly to the offensive side of the ball. The defense is playing as good, if not better than last year. They are allowing the same amount of points, 14.0, and 16.1 (256.6 to 240.5) fewer yards per game compared to last year. Also, they are making more big plays as they are on track to finish with 20 takeaways and 18 sacks (17 takeaways and 15 sacks in 2013). The biggest difference is the three defensive touchdowns they have already recorded. Jake Bussani ’14 has returned two interceptions for scores. And it would be four defensive touchdowns at this point if a block in the back penalty had not negated a Donnie Cimino ’15 interception return on Saturday. The final third of the Wesleyan secondary’s triumvirate, Justin Sanchez ’17, recovered the fumble that led to Wesleyan’s clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter.

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Running Back Drew Jacobs ’18 (Middlebury) – The Panthers got the thrilling overtime victory over Williams on Saturday, and Jacobs was the player who kept the offense moving. He rushed for 81 yards and caught eight passes for 68 yards. He also caught the tying touchdown pass with under a minute left in the game. Jacobs has been huge for a Middlebury team that lost a lot of its talent in the ground game after last year’s starting running back Matt Rea graduated and dual threat Joey Zelkowitz ’17 decided not to play this year and focus on lacrosse. The Marblehead, MA native leads the Panthers in rushing yards and is second in receptions and yards. Middlebury has shown much more commitment to the running game.  Jonathan Hurvitz ’17 also carried the ball 18 times on Saturday and it looks like Middlebury has found two backs they can rely on and keep fresh.

Stock Down

Receiver Mark Riley ’16 (Bates) – We don’t associate great receivers with run-heavy Bates, but Riley brought consecutive games of more than a 140 receiving yards into Saturday. Then the Wesleyan secondary shut him out holding him to no yards. Riley was working without his starting QB Matt Cannone ’15. Backup Patrick Dugan ’16 performed admirably filling in, but Wesleyan made it a point of emphasis not to let Riley behind them and make big plays. Without Riley to lead the passing game, the Bates offense only mustered 164 yards. Despite not getting any yards on Saturday, Riley still leads the NESCAC in receiving yards with 349 – 77 more than anyone else.

Bowdoin Special Teams – When Tyler Grant ’17 showed off some top end speed to go 39 yards and put the Polar Bears up 30-17 with 2:06 remaining in the game, it looked over in Clinton. Then Amman Weaver ’18 took the kickoff 85 yards to bring Hamilton back to within one score. Then Bowdoin couldn’t keep Hamilton from blocking a punt with under 15 seconds left to give the Continentals one last chance at the victory. Those few mishaps nearly wiped out another good performance from the Bowdoin offense. Grant and Dan Barone ’16 have emerged as go-to playmakers for the Polar Bears who are now back to .500 after sneaking out the victory over the Continentals

Teams that Kick to Zack Trause ’15 (Tufts) – Will NESCAC teams ever learn? Trause is a beast in the return game, and letting him get the ball in space is asking for a big play for Tufts. Trause only touched the ball twice on special teams Saturday, but one was a 77 yard punt return. DON’T KICK HIM THE BALL! The schemes that Tufts runs on these returns are also top notch as they give a lot of misdirection. It did not make a big difference in the game Saturday because the Trinity run game once again showed that stopping it might require a brick wall being installed on the field. Still, teams should stop giving Trause any chances. If they do try to, don’t be shocked if Tufts starts to do crazy things like lateral the ball back to him if it’s a pooch kick.

Week Three Power Rankings

After week one we had our knee-jerk Power Rankings that put Williams as the number one team in the NESCAC…yikes. Well after three weeks the NESCAC has become much more clear so it is time to take another look.

Our full weekend preview won’t be out until first thing Saturday morning so check back in for that.

1. Trinity (3-0)- Last week the Bantams played well below their capabilities and still beat Hamilton by 12. The Bantams are the most talented team in the NESCAC up and down the roster. The offensive line punished teams while the defense makes big plays. We won’t know really how good they are until they finish against Middlebury, Amherst, and Wesleyan.

2. Wesleyan (3-0)- In the first four games of 2013 the Cardinals beat opponents by an astonishing 35.3 points per game. Through three games the margin of victory has been (only) 17 points per game so they have not shown the same type of dominance. They miss LaDarius Drew ’15 who could possibly miss the rest of the year because of a foot injury.

3. Amherst (3-0)- We have said it before, but this is basically the same team as last year. The defense carries them and the offense relies on big plays to score points. Alex Kelly ’17 has emerged as the workhorse back, but once again the QB position is in limbo with Reece Foy ’18 pushing for time behind starter Alex Berluti ’17.

4. Middlebury (1-2)- Two close loses at home have knocked the Panthers out of the conference race early, but they are still a very good team. The defense was almost able to make enough plays to steal the game last week. Matt Milano ’16 was erratic going 9-31 against Amherst. The offense should get back on track against Williams.

5. Tufts (2-1)- The divide between the top four and everybody else is wide. Tufts certainly did not look like the fifth best team on Saturday, but who else can you put here? Zack Trause ’15 was a tackle by the kicker away from another touchdown against Bowdoin and leads the nation in kickoff return average.

6. Bates (1-2)- Injuries are threatening to hurt Bates in the next couple of weeks so head coach Mark Harriman will have to rely on his depth more than usual. The offense has not had nearly the same amount of punch that it did last year though Matt Cannone ’16 has made major strides as a passer.

7. Williams (1-2)- Well the last two weeks did not go as expected for Williams and the calls for Head Coach Aaron Kelton to be fired are as loud as ever. The team has to rally and find a way to recover quickly.

8. Bowdoin (1-2)- An offense that could not get any points on the board looked sharp against Tufts racking up 463 yards. The defense misses the presence of the three starting linebackers from 2013 as the Polar Bears are allowing six yards per play through three games.

9. Hamilton (0-3)- The Continentals deserve credit for keeping the game against Trinity so tight. The defense is playing at a different level this year allowing the second least first downs per game and tallying the second most tackles per loss per game as a unit.

10. Colby (0-3)- Losing Justin Ciero ’16 to transfer was going to hurt, but that does not explain why the defense has suddenly turned into one of the worst in the league. The Mules have to figure out how to make big plays in the passing game happen.

Weekend Preview: September 27

The biggest change a team can make from week to week comes after week 1 and leading into week 2. Nothing can replicate game speed, and after coaches are able to look back at game tape for the first time and make adjustments, teams can look very different. Consider in week 1 last year Williams got blown out by Colby 31-6. Then a week later Trinity needed two A.J. Jones ’14 touchdown receptions in the fourth quarter to keep the Ephs from ending the Trinity home winning streak. More on the Williams-Trinity matchup later.

The overarching story line to watch this week is how teams perform on the road. In our opinion, only one team (Wesleyan at home against Hamilton) can be considered the favorite at home. The last time four road teams won in one weekend was actually this same week two years ago with the exact same slate of games. A home underdog springing an upset would mean a disturbance in the early season hierarchy, even if it is a momentary blip.

Three to Watch

1. Quarterback Austin Lommen ’16 (Williams)- I know that we focus a lot on Lommen and Williams prospects for improvement, but this is the week that we really learn how far Lommen can take the Ephs. Last week he was able to lean on a great defensive effort and running attack against Bowdoin. He was efficient going 18-27  for 184 yards and one touchdown. Still Trinity will make him do a lot more in order to beat them. They have the strength to slow down running back Alex Scyorcurka ’14 enough to make Lommen have to make throws. It is clear that Lommen has great chemistry with his high school teammate Steven Kiesel. He will need to find the open receiver as Kiesel will likely face tight coverage from either Mike Mancini ’15 or Brian Dones ’17.

2. Linebacker Addison Pierce ’17 (Middlebury)- The Panther defense rose to the occasion last week especially in the run game, and Pierce was a player who had a breakout game. He played a lot freshman year finishing fifth on the team in tackles, but last week was special. He totaled ten tackles including three and a half TFLs (tackles for loss), equal to his total TFLs for all of 2013. The Panthers got penetration into the backfield all day from their linebackers stopping Kyle Gibson and co. before they could get momentum. This week is another interesting matchup for the Midd defense against a Colby offense that actually ran the ball effectively against Trinity.

3. Running back Ivan Reese ’17 (Bates)- Last week Amherst shut down the inside running game for Bates holding Reese to only 19 yards on 10 carries. In fairness, Amherst was perfectly designed to shut down the interior given all the talent up front on defense. 19 yards should be by far the least amount of yards that Reese gets in any game. The interior of the Tufts defense should not present the same problems Amherst did so look for Reese to be fed the ball early and often in the home opener for Bates. The offense needs to improve on their execution from week one in order not to waste another great performance from the defense.

Austin Lommen '16 in action against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)
Austin Lommen ’16 in action against Bowdoin (Courtesy of Williams Athletics)

The Picks

Game of the Week- Trinity (1-0) at Williams (1-0)

Williams fans are riding high after opening their new field with a thumping of Bowdoin. A victory this week would put them into a tizzy. The Bantams are feeling pretty good themselves after taking it to Colby in the second half to run away with the win. Our writers Sean Meekins ’15 and Carson Kenney ’15, both Trinity students, put Williams above Trinity in their power rankings. Maybe it was just a psychological play to fire up the Bantams, but the point remains that after week one, this matchup got a little more interesting.

As we mentioned above, Williams almost shocked Trinity in Hartford last year. The stats tell us this was not the result of any fluke luck. The teams had essentially the same amount of yards, first downs, yards per play, and penalties. The difference was Williams’ four turnovers to Trinity’s one. The play of the game came when Brian Dones ’17 picked off Tom Murphy ’15 in the final minute to set up the winning touchdown for Trinity.

Lommen has to avoid making those type of mistakes for Williams to win. Williams will make a strong commitment to running the ball especially given how Carl Lipani ’17 was able to run for 133 yards last week. Some of Williams biggest plays in week one came on screens and draws where they were able to give Scyocurka and Jean Luc Etienne ’15 space to work with. The experienced Trinity linebackers will likely snuff that type of play out meaning the Ephs will have to manufacture big plays down the field.

On the other side of the ball the decisive matchup is between the Trinity offensive line and the Williams defensive front seven. James Howe ’16 will need to get help from his cohorts which might not include defensive tackle Adam Datema ’15 this week. Chudi Iregbulem ’15 and company enjoyed success mainly in the second half after wearing down Colby because Trinity held the ball for 37 minutes. The Williams defense has to make sure Trinity does not get into a rhythm running the ball. These are two teams similar in ethos that have seen every game between them since 2006 decided by eight points or less.

Prediction: Trinity 22 over Williams 17

Middlebury (0-1) at Colby (0-1)- These are two teams both coming off tough losses that look very comparable. The Mules were feeling good at halftime against Trinity down only a safety and getting the ball to start the second half. Then things fell apart pretty quickly and Colby ended up losing 32-7. Middlebury had a chance to tie Wesleyan at the end of regulation before a near blocked punt turned into a game ending roughing the kicker penalty. Colby has to do a better job of not letting up the big play, whether that’s on offense or defense. How the Colby secondary plays against a Middlebury offense that outgained Wesleyan last week will be the difference.

Prediction: Middlebury 31 over Colby 23

Amherst (1-0) at Bowdoin (0-1)- Quick disclaimer/heads up: I am doing the color commentary for this game on the Bowdoin webcast through NSN. Bowdoin could take few positives away from the game against Williams. Expect them to open things up more on offense to keep Amherst off balance because running against the Jeffs is very difficult. Amherst has to cut down on the turnovers that helped Bates almost beat them last week. Keeping Alex Berluti ’17 in the pocket is a must for the Polar Bears. If he escapes and makes one player miss, he can easily rip off a 30 yard run. Bowdoin always seems to play Amherst tough especially in the first half, but it will be tough for them to make enough plays to win.

Prediction: Amherst 20 over Bowdoin 6

Bates (0-1) at Tufts (1-0)- The Jumbos were able to celebrate their first win in four years last weekend, and it will be interesting to see how the team plays this week. Preparation against Bates is crucial, and if Tufts spent too long in the glow of their victory they will be in trouble tomorrow. The Bates running game should get more traction this week than it did against Amherst.  This is a must win game for Bates to gain momentum before they face Williams and Wesleyan at home in back to back weeks. Expect the Bobcat defense to really clamp down and frustrate the Tufts offense.

Prediction: Bates 23 over Tufts 13

Hamilton (0-1) at Wesleyan (1-0)- The Cardinals blitzkrieged their first four opponents in 2013, and Hamilton was no exception. This game was over last year after the first drive of the third quarter when LaDarius Drew broke off a 76 yard touchdown run to put Wesleyan up 28-0. It is still unclear if Drew will play this week after missing last week due to injury. Chase Rosenberg ’17 will put the ball in the air a lot again this week for the Continentals, but expect the Wesleyan defense to pick a couple of those passes off.

Prediction: Wesleyan 31 over Hamilton 10

Last week: 5-0

Season: 5-0

Stock Report – September 22

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Just as we did for baseball, every Monday we will look back at the weekend by examining some of the players, units, and coaches that stuck out. Week 1 featured an escape by the Jeffs at home, a successful opening of a new stadium in Williamstown, and a triumph for Tufts.

Stock Up

Williams Secondary- In the preseason the defensive line got most of the love for Williams, but the secondary was the star in week 1. Four of the five top tacklers for the Ephs were defensive backs. That includes Tom Cabarle ’15 and Jack Ryan ’16 accounting for all three tackles for loss. To cap it off, top corner Taysean Scott ’17 returned an interception 18 yards for a touchdown. The Bowdoin passing offense struggled for the first three quarters to find receivers open downfield before moving the ball after Williams went into near prevent defense. Trinity represents a different animal in terms of offensive attack next week for Williams, but if the Ephs can count on their secondary being sure handed in their tackling, that will go a long way in slowing down the big play ability of the Trinity run offense.

Trinity Offensive Line – Colby held tight for a while before the Bantams turned the burners on to extend the home winning streak to 52. In total Trinity ran for 289 yards against the best run defense from 2013. Coach Jeff Devanney turned to his line for the first drive of the second half. The Bantams ran the ball on 11 of the 12 plays of the drive including the first 10. Chudi Iregbulem’s ’15 touchdown made the score 22-7 to essentially put the game away. From left to right the Bantam line goes Matt Porter ’16 6’2″ 285 lbs, Jake Golden ’15 6’1″ 290 lbs, Joe Magardino 6’2″ 275 lbs, Connor Flynn ’15 6’3″ 280 lbs, and Will Lynner ’16 6’2″ 270 lbs. Then throw in tight end Brendan Oliver at 6’3″ 235 lbs for good measure. At this point in the season, this is the best positional unit on either offense or defense in the entire NESCAC. Switch the Trinity offensive line onto any other NESCAC school and that school would go at least 4-4.

Tufts – Saturday’s win over Hamilton was the first victory for every single player on the Tufts roster as a member of the Jumbos. The atmosphere in Medford was one of jubilation. Have to give credit not only to the team and coaches but also the crowd. There was a feeling that the streak was coming to an end soon, and students turned out in force to watch their team. Corner Mike Stearns ’17 was the star on a defense that bended but didn’t break. The sophomore had an incredible 16 solo tackles to earn Co-Defensive Player of the Week. Also important in the victory was Mike Rando ’17 who finished with 188 all-purpose yards. Tufts has a lot of work to do in order to keep improving given they had only 12 first downs to Hamilton’s 23.

Stock Down

Quarterbacks – As a group, NESCAC QBs threw for 10 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 58.4 completion percentage. Two interceptions were returned for touchdowns and Colby’s Gabe Harrington’s ’17 fumble led to a Trinity defensive touchdown. Defenses being ahead of offenses is not unusual in Week 1. Coaches are also usually more conservative as they try to feel out exactly how comfortable their quarterback is. Still, several signs point to passing being down around the NESCAC all year. The first is the obvious drop off Middlebury will see with Matt Milano ’16 now at QB. Milano actually threw for the second most yards in week one but had two interceptions including a crucial one to Justin Sanchez ’17. Both Trinity’s Henry Foye ’15 and Jesse Warren ’15 will not be asked to make many throws because of the strength of their running games. The surprising start of Alex Berluti ’17 for Amherst could also mean less passing for the Jeffs because of Berluti’s running ability.

Wesleyan’s Invincibility – Given all of the starters returning from last season, some expected the 2014 season to be one big victory lap for the Cardinals. That looks silly now after they escaped from Middlebury with an eight point victory. Sure they were playing without running back LaDarius Drew ’15, but that is no reason for only averaging 1.7 yards per carry. If not for a Middlebury roughing the kicker penalty, the Panthers would have gotten the ball back with a chance to tie with just under two minutes left. Maybe Middlebury will not take any steps back this season or Wesleyan simply came out flat in the first game. Luckily the Cardinals should not be challenged at home next weekend by Hamilton but they then face three difficult games. The defense really carried the Cardinals to the victory with Justin Sanchez’ ’17 TAINT (touchdown after interception) and Donnie Cimino’s ’15 punt return bailing out the offense.

Gutsy Decisions – The most exciting game of the weekend swung on a single play with Bates electing to go for two and the win at Amherst. While the gamble by Coach Mark Harriman did not work out, the decision to go for it was definitely the right one. Like we predicted, the game was extremely low scoring with Bates averaging only 2.9 yards per play. Forgetting for now everything that followed afterward, at the moment Bates had jumped on a huge miscue from a Gene Garay ’15 fumble to score their touchdown. An offense that had struggled all game suddenly could win the game in a situation perfectly built for their scheme. Though he missed a kick earlier in the game, the ability of Amherst kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 probably also played into Harriman’s thinking. In overtime that kicking advantage could easily have been the difference for the Jeffs. As the underdog on the road, Harriman was completely right to take the gamble and play the odds. The only possible problem was the play call. Instead of relying on some variation of the triple option, Matt Cannone ’16 dropped back for a pass hoping to catch the Jeffs by surprise. Our guess is Harriman thought he saw something in the Amherst defense that could be exploited on that play, but it just did not work out.

 

The Weekend Preview: Time For a Little Football

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We have waited a long long time for this. The NESCAC football season kicks off officially at 1 PM tomorrow. To get you ready, we take inspiration from former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield who famously talked about the differences between known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. We will switch around the format a little in order to also include things  we think to be known. If that didn’t make any sense to you… don’t worry about it.

Things We Know We Know

  • LaDarius Drew ’15 and Kyle Gibson ’15 will get a lot of carries- Coach Mike Whalen has successfully built Wesleyan into a powerhouse behind a strong running attack. QB Jesse Warren ’15 will not be asked to win the game against Middlebury. Drew and Gibson will have success against a front seven that was used to playing with the lead for most of last season.
  • Williams has some nice new digs- If you haven’t seen them yet, Williams gives you a sneak peek here. The opening also coincides with Williams finishing a new library. Whether students actually went to school there the last two years or the campus was merely a construction site is still a matter of debate amongst scholars
  • A streak will end- Either Hamilton or Tufts will get the monkey off their back in week 1. More pressure is on Tufts as the Jumbos carry a 31 game losing streak into the weekend.

Things We Think We Know

  • Amherst can slow down the triple option- For football tacticians, the Amherst-Bates game features a veteran interior line for Bates going up against a great front seven in Amherst. The Jeffs have the strength in Robert Perdoni ’16 and speed in guys like Tyler Mordas ’16 to make Bates struggle.
  • Austin Lommen ’16 will give the Williams offense a new look- A team that mostly relied on running the ball with Alex Scyorcurka ’14 and Marco Hernandez ’14 gets a shot of life with Lommen distributing the ball. Suddenly big play opportunities could abound for the Ephs given their size at receiver and tight end.

Things We Know We Don’t Know

  • The total impact of Mac Foote ’14- By this I don’t just mean the effect Foote’s arm had on the offense but also the D. Teams had to adjust their game against the Panthers because of him. They would often be conservative early in the game to try to give their defense a rest before being forced to throw the ball a lot in late game situations. Think of how the Colts defense suddenly looked helpless once Peyton Manning got hurt.
  • Mental Preparation of teams- Every coach says they like how their team has been playing in preseason. Yet we don’t know how ready every team is for their first game until they get out onto the field. A slow start in the first game of the season can lead to week 1 upsets.

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The Picks

Colby at Trinity: Trinity 27-Colby 16

Play this game in three weeks in Waterville, and the Mules could pull the upset, but Trinity takes every home game seriously because of the streak. Expect Gabe Harrington to move the ball up and down the field, but the Trinity defense will tighten up in the red zone. A late Trinity rushing touchdown against a tired Colby team should seal it.

Wesleyan at Middlebury: Wesleyan 34-Middlebury 21

There is simply too much talent back on the Wesleyan sideline for the Panthers to compete for four whole quarters. We were robbed of this game last season, but this edition will lack drama. Expect the different in philosophies between the two teams to be clear as Wesleyan controls the line of scrimmage while Middlebury is forced to air it out. The entire Wesleyan secondary is licking their chops at the opportunity of playing a first time starting QB.

Bowdoin at Williams: Williams 23-Bowdoin 13

Williams will come out fired up to get a victory in their first game at the new field. Both defenses might take a little time to settle down. The key for Bowdoin is finding a way to slow down the defensive line of Williams. QB Mac Caputi ’15 will try to get the ball out early to avoid the rush. In the end Williams will find a way to attack a Bowdoin secondary that does not have the height to stop Darrias Sime’16 all game.

Bates at Amherst: Amherst 17- Bates 10

Amherst will leave this game with more questions on offense than they had going in. The game is going to be a slog for most of the time. Max Lippe ’15 is already at risk of losing his spot to one of the talented young guns, and Alex Berluti ’17 will see time at some point in the game. The good thing is the Amherst defense will pick up the slack and shut down Bates. The Jeffs will escape but not without a scare.

Hamilton at Tufts: Tufts 35- Hamilton 31

I think this will be the most entertaining game to watch. Both defenses will struggle to get off the field on third down. The difference will be which QB, Jack Doll ’15 or Chase Rosenberg ’17, makes fewer mistakes. The streak will end at 31 and the Jumbos will celebrate.

Amherst Team Preview – The Jeffs Look to Keep Rolling

2013 Record: 7-1

Returning Starters: 16 (six offense, eight defense, two specialists)

Offensive Overview:

2013 was a down year for the Amherst offense. Though they still finished fourth in points per game with 21.1, Middlebury was third with 29.8 points per game. That meant Amherst came exactly as close to finishing ninth in points per game as they came to finishing third. The main problems were at the quarterback position where Head Coach EJ Mills could not settle between Alex Berluti ’17 and Max Lippe ’15. Lippe started the season as the starter and saw the vast majority of the snaps, but his occasional struggles led to Berluti seeing some significant playing time as well. Lippe brings size and experience to the position and should once again have a chance to be the undisputed starter. Running back is a strength with Kenny Adinkra ’16 and Nick Kelly ’17 possessing a good complement of skills. Adinkra is stronger and can run over defenders while Kelly is a very tall 6’2″ for a running back.

Receivers Jake O’Malley ’14 and Wade McNamara ’14 will have to be replaced with Brian Ragone ’16 inheriting the top outside position. Jackson McGonagle ’16 will see an uptick in playing time and is a big target at 6’3″. In the slot Gene Garay ’15 will give teams fits with his quick pivot routes while also returning kickoffs. Henry Falter ’15 will be the primary tight end. The offensive line lacks depth with only sixth upperclassmen so sophomores and freshman might have to play earlier than Mills would like. Scott Mergner ’15, Colman Duggan ’15, and Jonathan Woodrow ’15 have a lot of experience and will be invaluable breaking in the two new starters. Lippe and Berluti were only sacked eight times combined, and the line should be able to replicate that type of protection.

Defensive Overview:

The top four tacklers from 2013 are all back to lead a unit that should once again be one of the very best. Like so many other teams in the NESCAC, the strength of the defense is in the front seven. Amherst runs a 3-4 scheme that can shut down run attacks. Max Lehrman ’15, Robert Perdoni ’16, and Sam Caldwell ’16 all return as starters on the line that has several other upperclassmen returning for depth. In the middle Chris Tamasi ’15 enjoyed a first team All-NESCAC season in 2013, and an argument could be made that other inside linebacker Ned Deane ’15 had as good a season even though he did not earn All-NESCAC honors. Tyler Mordas ’16 returns after stepping into a starting role because of injury, and Tomas Kleyn ’16 looks to fill the other outside position after injury cut his 2013 short. Many other talented linebackers are on the roster like Parker Chapman ’17, so Mills will have the luxury of rolling out different packages for passing and running downs.

The secondary has more questions in it after the graduation of Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14. Talent is still plentiful with Jaymie Spears ’16, Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16, and Chris Gow ’16 combining for 8 interceptions last season. The other corner spot across from Spears is wide open with Stefan Soucy ’17 possibly capable of making a huge jump of playing time. The secondary has to tighten up some of the holes it had despite all the interceptions they had as a group.

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Three Big Questions:

1. How good can the junior class be?

Because of the depth of talent Amherst brings in every season, each class takes time to gain playing time, but the 2016 group has already stepped into major roles especially on defense. In total 11 starters could come from the junior class with many of them already having starting experience. There are plenty of senior stars like Tamasi and Garay, but the success of Amherst will come down to their juniors.

2. Can a QB step up?

The one thing that can hold back great programs is mediocre quarterback play. And make no mistake that Amherst is a great program with the most wins of any team in the last five seasons. Berluti has great physical tools, but Lippe is the QB who Amherst will ultimately depend on because of his experience. If he can play better then the Jeffs will be right there once again in the title mix.

3. Can they continue to force turnovers?

Amherst led the NESCAC with 23 defensive turnovers with a whopping 20 of those coming as interceptions. Expecting that same number of interceptions is foolish, but an uptick in fumble recoveries could offset that. Turnovers is a statistic that can see a lot of variation year to year, and a steep drop could cause more yards and points to be scored against the Jeffs.

Team MVP: Kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 is an unusual choice for MVP, but consider the type of team Amherst was last season. They thrived behind a strong defense and offense that didn’t mess up too often. The importance of kickers is increased in low scoring games, and Nwosu is as good as they come in the NESCAC. He is a threat from anywhere within 50 yards and will force touchbacks on most of his kickoffs.

Biggest Game: Oct. 18 at Wesleyan

Amherst needs to avenge their only loss of 2013. Last season Wesleyan came in and ruined homecoming for the senior Jeffs, and in the process the Cardinals announced they had arrived. Both Wesleyan touchdowns came after they started the drive in Amherst territory, so field position will be a point of concentration this time around. Ultimately it was losing the turnover battle by four that doomed the Jeffs last time. This time around could be a different story.

Best Tweet of the Offseason: No word on who ended up winning the Open.

This is a team with a lot of pride and talent that is more than capable of running the table.

What the Best Games of 2013 Could Mean for 2014

Obviously the best place to start when prognosticating for 2014 is last season. We don’t really have anything else to go on. Yet remember these games can only tell us so much. A large amount of randomness is at play especially with 18-22 year olds.

Without any further ado, here are the five most important games of last season along with what stories and statistics carry importance into this season.

5. November 2: Williams 14 (2-6) at Wesleyan 16 (7-1)

Wesleyan survived a major scare in this game as their offense had major struggles against Williams. The only Cardinal touchdown of the game came on a one play four yard drive after a freak series of events led to Williams punting from their one yard line. Donnie Cimino ’15 returned the punt all the way to the four yard line, and LaDarius Drew ’14 ran it in the very next play. A late Williams rally fell short when Jake Bussani ’14 intercepted a pass with less than three minutes remaining.

What it means: People point to the improvement Williams made each week when they talk about a possible rebound this year. This game stayed close mostly because Wesleyan could not convert in the red zone settling for three field goals. Still Williams got nothing from their running game and lost the turnover battle by 2. Combine that with the game being at Williams this season, and this could be the hardest game on Wesleyan’s schedule.

4. October 19: Wesleyan 20 (7-1) at Amherst 14 (7-1)

People still didn’t quite believe that Wesleyan was for real when they faced off against Amherst. After this game everyone knew the Cardinals were a threat to run the table. Though Amherst slowed down Drew and Kyle Gibson ’15 a good deal, Jesse Warren ’15 played flawlessly while his Amherst counterparts at QB struggled. Wesleyan was up 20-7 before Amherst scored a touchdown in the fourth, but Max Lippe ’15 threw an interception to seal it for Wesleyan.

What it means: The same reason why Wesleyan should worry about the Williams game should comfort them for the Amherst one: it will be in Middletown. A lot of other factors however, point to Amherst having a better shot in 2014. The 2013 game is a hard one to figure out. Wesleyan won the turnover battle 4-0, time of possession 35:56-24:04, and had three fewer penalties for thirty less yards. Yet Amherst won the first down battle 19-14, third down efficiency (Amherst 7-14, Wesleyan 3-15), and total yardage 355-310.

This was the game where Amherst’s quarterback struggles were most apparent, and it cost them the game. Head Coach EJ Mills has said he hopes and expects one of Lippe or Alex Berluti ’17 to grab the reins this year. If they do that, then the Amherst offense will be able to offset any possible drop in play from what was a fantastic Jeff defense in 2013.

3. October 26: Trinity 24 (6-2) at Middlebury 27 (7-1)

This was another wildly entertaining game that came down to Mac Foote ’14 making all the throws in the final drive before Nate Leedy ’17 sealed the win with an interception as time expired. The game appeared to be over when Middlebury turned the ball over on downs with less than three minutes remaining. The Panther defense stood tall and forced a punt before Foote took over. The two teams combined for eight attempted fourth down conversions. It took Foote 64 attempts to throw for his 310 yards because he only completed 29 throws. Evan Bunker ’14 had one of his worst games as a Bantam rushing for 28 yards on 13 attempts.

What it means: The biggest reason Trinity lost was ten penalties for 115 yards including four that lead to first downs for Middlebury. They controlled the line as 23 of Middlebury’s 100 rushing yards came on a broken play where Middlebury punter Michael Dola ’15 rushed for a first down. Middlebury will have to rely much more on their running game, but they will struggle against the best defenses in the NESCAC.

Another big takeaway was that Puzzo really carried the Trinity offense in this game. He made plays with his arm and legs accounting for 287 yards of offense. With him, the 2014 Trinity offense could have been very good, but now there a lot of questions surrounding that side of the ball for the Bantams.

2. November 2: Trinity 16 (6-2) at Amherst 17 (7-1)

Trinity had just lost a heartbreaker to Middlebury, but this was even more devastating. The Bantams allowed only 56 yards rushing, had seven more first downs, and held the ball for 36:44. Yet this was a close game that, in the words of Lee Corso, came down to special teams. Amherst converted a short field after a poor punt into a 44 yard Phillip Nwosu ’15 field goal. Then after Trinity scored a touchdown to go down one, Ben Rosenblatt ’17 missed the extra point to give Amherst the stunning victory.

What it means: 2013 was a down year for Trinity, but the two games that they lost were by the thinnest of margins. Consider the fact that Trinity only went 3-15 on third down conversions yet still outgained Amherst by 113 yards. Trinity did just about everything you want to do when you are on the road except win the turnover battle.

Amherst relied so heavily on their defense in 2013 to make plays in big moments. Landrus Lewis ’14 and Max Dietz ’14 are both gone after snagging three interceptions apiece, but a lot of talent remains including corner Jaymie Spears ’16 and safety Jimmy Fairfield-Sonn ’16. If Amherst is once again hard to throw on, then their defense should be elite given the amount of returning talent in the front seven.

1. November 9: Wesleyan 10 (7-1) at Trinity 40 (6-2)

Trinity blitzed Wesleyan in what many expected to be a crowning day for the Cardinals as the only undefeated team in the NESCAC. Instead, Trinity dominated in all facets of the game on their way to a blowout. The Trinity defense held Wesleyan to under 100 yards on the ground while intercepting Warren three times. Meanwhile, Trinity ran at ease against the Wesleyan front seven averaging over five yards a carry and 249 in the aggregate.

Warren proved many of his detractors right as he failed to rise to the occasion when Wesleyan needed him. The back-breaking sequence for Wesleyan came late in the second quarter down 16-3. After a Trinity field goal, Wesleyan had the ball on their 37 with 3:07 left. Since Wesleyan would get the ball back to start the second half, a score here would have put them right back in the game. The play sequence went incompletion, completion for loss of a yard, interception on third down. Trinity converted the short field into a touchdown on a trick play pass from Evan Bunker to QB Puzzo. They never looked back after their 23-3 lead at half.

What it means: This game, like most others, was won in the trenches where Trinity just walloped Wesleyan. Drew didn’t have one run of more than ten yards and averaged only 2.9 yards in the game. Both Amherst and Williams got close to beating the Cardinal earlier in the year by completing half of the equation and slowing down Wesleyan’s run game. Trinity was the only team that was also able to run the ball up the gut for consistent gains. A large part of the running success came from the ability of Puzzo to rush for 53 yards, but obviously Puzzo is no longer on the roster. Presumed starter Henry Foye ’15 barely ran in 2013.

Unfortunately most teams don’t have the players in order to compete with Wesleyan in a slug ’em out fight. Trinity might not even be able to this year. In fact one of the biggest questions entering the season is just how much we should take away from this game. It’s pretty clear Trinity was ready to play, and they executed their game plan to perfection, but we just don’t know if Wesleyan was over-matched or simply didn’t show up. If it was only an off-game for Wesleyan, then we should expect the Cardinals to run through the NESCAC this season.