The first weekend in November signals the penultimate weekend of NESCAC football, with a chance to crown a champion by Saturday’s end. Will Middlebury solidify their place among the rest of the competition, or will they slip up and allow Williams or Wesleyan back into the picture? Elsewhere, the Jumbos have a trip to Waterville to face off with Colby, who just got their first win of the season last weekend against Bates. Speaking of the ‘Cats, they are set to finish up their CBB slate with a primetime night contest against the Polar Bears in what is sure to be an intense atmosphere. Let’s get to it.
For a quick update, here’s how each of our writers are doing in their weekly picks:
Ryan Moralejo: 29-6
Haven Cutko: 28-7
Matt Karpowicz: 27-8
Cameron Carlson: 26-9
Spencer Smead: 24-11
Hamilton (4-3) @ Middlebury (7-0), 12:30pm, Middlebury, Vermont
For Middlebuty, the time is finally here: after weeks of clinging to the top spot, while most of the general public assumed they would eventually trip up, the Panthers have defied all odds and are one win away from claiming their first NESCAC Championship since they were crowned co-champions in 2013. It hasn’t been pretty by any means, but credit Coach Ritter and his staff for a fantastic season to date in addition to earning his 100th career win in their victory last week against Bowdoin. They put their guys in a position to disrupt plays and minimize their opponent’s strengths every weekend, and the players have remained level-headed and poised throughout the early gauntlet of their schedule. Now is not the time to sit back. The Panthers will be sure to not take the Continentals lightly after their recent surge up the standings. Their 36-21 victory against Tufts did not do Hamilton justice for their absolute dominating performance on the road, racing out to a 34-7 lead by halftime. Kenny Gray ‘20 is finally rounding into form, and he added to his recent uptick in quality play by throwing for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Although David Kagan ‘20 was held to just 39 yards, reserve tailback Joe Park ‘22 made it clear that there would be no drop off in production with a career-high 126 yard performance. The Continentals will need to keep their ground game churning against a stout Panthers’ front seven that is second in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game.
The biggest challenge will be Hamilton’s defense versus Middlebury’s offense; what was (for the majority of the season) a below-average defense has been performing well in recent weeks in large part because they’ve continued to force turnovers. Hamilton sits tied for second in the league with seventeen, including multiple takeaways in six of their seven games. WIth the offense finally clicking, those turnovers are being converted into points, and it is clear that this combination has transformed the New Yorkers into a legitimate upset pick for this Saturday. Given the fact that Will Jernigan ‘21 has a tendency to cough up the ball (6 interceptions and 6 fumbles to date), his focus should be on remaining patient and letting the plays develop in front of him; the Continentals are still allowing 373.4 yards and 28 points per game, so it’s more about making smart decisions and not forcing passes into tight windows or holding onto the ball too long. I really want to pick Hamilton just so the last week of NESCAC football is more entertaining, but I believe the Panthers will rally after digging themselves a hole early on, clinching the NESCAC Championship on Senior Day.
Picks:
RM: Middlebury 33, Hamilton 27
HC: Middlebury 31, Hamilton 27
MK: Middlebury 35, Hamilton 20
CC: Middlebury 31, Hamilton 27
SS: Middlebury 35, Hamilton 20
Writers’ Pick: Middlebury
Tufts (3-4) @ Colby (1-6), 1:00pm, Waterville, Maine
I’ll be honest: I have no real confidence in either team. On paper, Tufts most certainly possesses the better team, but its plethora of individual talent hasn’t been nearly enough to win games. Tufts disappointing season is, in large part, due to the team’s inability to play a well-rounded game. The 49-0 drubbing they handed to Bowdoin gave me a slight indication that the Jumbos might have figured it out, but once again, the defense fell apart. The Jumbos must do something on that side of the ball to stifle the Mules’ offense, such as creating more blitz packages. Turnovers haven’t been in abundance for the defense this season (second worst with only 6 forced), but the Mules have coughed up the football 6 times over the past three weeks. Matt Hersch ‘22 played really well in the first half against Bates, but he was a no-show for the remaining 30 minutes. The special teams was an absolute disaster, with Moises Celaya ‘22 missing an extra point and having both a field goal and a punt blocked. Furthermore, a bad snap cost Celaya 15 yards and gave Bates a chance to tie or win the game in the final minute. Their special teams play has to be impeccable if they want to hang around with the Jumbos on Saturday. Colby is probably more fired up to play Tufts than vice-versa based on recent results, but I’m sticking with the Jumbos in a high-scoring affair.
Picks:
RM: Tufts 43, Colby 27
HC: Tufts 23, Colby 6
MK: Tufts 35, Colby 10
CC: Tufts 42, Colby 10
SS: Tufts 21, Colby 13
Writers’ Pick: Tufts
Trinity (4-3) @ Amherst (4-3), 1:00pm, Amherst, Massachusetts
It’s really quite odd to have both of these perennial powerhouses already eliminated from the NESCAC Championship race with two games remaining on the season, and they each suffered significant defeats this past weekend. For the Bantams, their three-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Ephs and its ferocious front seven, who constantly harassed quarterback Seamus Lambert ‘22 and bottled up running back Tijani Harris ‘22 (27 carries for 42 yards). Granted, Williams does boast the league’s best defense in terms of points allowed per game, but this is Trinity we’re talking about. With the talent that Trinity has, it’s simply a disappointment that the offense has looked so volatile, especially after exhibiting the capability to hang 60 points.
Amherst would, in theory, should present another tough challenge for the Bantams’ offense, but I’m not sure how much this team has left in the tank from an emotional standpoint. Of course they’ll be ready for next week’s rivalry game against the Ephs, but you have to think that their rather shocking loss to the Cardinals leaves them shaking their heads at what could have been. Although quarterback Ollie Eberth ‘20 turned the ball over twice in the first half, Amherst managed to find themselves leading the visitors 28-21 entering the fourth quarter. A Cardinals’ touchdown tied it with roughly twelve minutes remaining, and Eberth failed to gain a first down on his remaining possessions in regulation. In overtime, Henry Atkeson ‘20 had an opportunity to clinch the game with a 24 yard field goal after fellow kicker Mason Von Jess ‘23 nailed the right upright from 18 yards out, but the senior endured the same result. To make things worse, Eberth threw his third interception on the ensuing possession in double overtime, allowing the Cardinals to convert their own game-winning field goal. Amherst knows they shouldn’t have lost to Wesleyan, just like how they shouldn’t have lost to Hamilton or Middlebury. This team simply doesn’t know how to close out a game, and I’m more confident siding with the team who tends to respond after suffering defeat.
Picks:
RM: Trinity 27, Amherst 17
HC: Trinity 27, Amherst 26
MK: Trinity 38. Amherst 20
CC: Trinity 27, Amherst 21
SS: Amherst 31, Trinity 24
Writers’ Pick: Trinity
Williams (6-1) @ Wesleyan (6-1), 1:00pm, Middletown, Connecticut
This is our game of the week, but the Cardinals showed some life in their come-from-behind victory against the Mammoths. Ashton Scott ‘22 is the real deal, and Matthew Simco ‘22 is a big playmaker that will give any defense problems; but this is the best defensive unit in the NESCAC, and their double-digit road victory against Trinity reaffirms my belief that this is the best and most complete team in the league. In a battle of one-loss foes, it’ll be Williams who dominates the time of possession and makes life hard on Scott. Ephs fans will be simultaneously praying that Hamilton can knock off Middlebury and keep the championship race open for one more week.
Picks:
RM: Williams 36, Wesleyan 20
HC: Williams 27, Wesleyan 13
MK: Williams 25, Wesleyan 16
CC: Williams 28, Wesleyan 14
SS: Williams 31, Wesleyan 21
Writers’ Pick: Williams
Bowdoin (0-7) @ Bates (0-7), 5:30pm, Lewiston, ME
Welcome to the 2019 Toilet Bowl featuring (for the second consecutive year) Bates and Bowdoin. All jokes aside, for the Bobcats, last week’s battle against the Mules gives me room for optimism heading into Saturday’s clash. Colby punched Bates in the mouth right from the get-go, racing out to a 23-0 lead. The Bobcats could have folded right then and there, but Jackson Hayes’ ‘22 47-yard touchdown reception as time expired gave the ‘Cats some momentum heading into the second half. For the remaining 30 minutes, Bates absolutely dominated the Mules on both sides of the ball. The defense stifled Colby’s offense to the tune of just 78 total second half yards, while Brendan Costa ‘21 and the offense nearly doubled that number. The special teams unit gave Celaya nightmares all second half, ignited by senior captain Jon Lindgren’s field goal block with 4:46 left in the third quarter.
The Bobcats were potentially one dropped pass away from forcing overtime, and while you have to account for the emotional toll the game had on the players, I see no reason why the ‘Cats won’t come out fired up for this game. Not only is it the last game for Bates in 2019, but the 5:30 pm kickoff will surely bring a large crowd ready to cheer their team to victory. In a similar scenario last season, Bowdoin embarrassed Bates 31-14 en route to their only win of 2018; you have to think for Bates, revenge is right at the forefront of their minds. It was only one game, but Costa looked much better against the Mules and should have success against a Polar Bears’ defense that is still allowing over 40 points and 465 yards per game. Emotions will be on full display during a physical first fifteen minutes, but I trust Bates’ offense to put up around 30 points on Bowdoin’s defense, a number Bowdoin’s offense hasn’t achieved in the score column all season. The Bobcats have lost 17 consecutive games, but that streak ends with an emphatic win this Saturday night.
Picks:
RM: Bates 34, Bowdoin 17
HC: Bowdoin 24, Bates 17
MK: Bates 28, Bowdoin 14
CC: Bates 29, Bowdoin 17
SS: Bates 24, Bowdoin 17
Writers’ Pick: Bates