Conference Tournament Weekend Preview and Predictions
The NESCAC Tournament is finally here. Weeks of grueling conference play filtered out the weak, leaving the top eight teams to battle for the right to be crowned champion and earn an automatic trip to the NCAA Tournament. Will the traditional powers of Amherst, Tufts and Wesleyan continue their dominance and roll to the semifinals, or will a lower seed play spoiler?
Usually there’s a matchup or two in conference tournaments where one team is significantly favored over the other; however, each of these bouts features teams in which their previous regular season encounters were decided by no more than three goals. While this doesn’t necessarily mean every game will be close, it makes the matchups more enticing and increases the opportunity for upsets to occur.
Before dissecting the quarterfinal matchups, here’s how some of the playoff seeds were secured:
Here are the matchups for Saturday.
Jockeying for the top two spots: Wesleyan finished tied with Amherst and Tufts atop the conference at 9-1. All three share the same record against the top eight opponents in the NESCAC, so by rule the top overall seed was selected via a suspenseful name drawing from a hat. Amherst was awarded the second seed due to their head-to-head victory over the Jumbos.
Movement in the Middle: Conn College snagged the fifth seed due to their head-to-head victory over Middlebury. The Panthers jumped up a spot to sixth with a huge victory over Williams, while Bowdoin’s loss to Wesleyan dropped the Polar Bears to seventh.
Bobcats Snag the Last Spot: In what came down to a winner-take-all matchup between rivals Bates and Colby, the Bobcats left Waterville victorious and secured their fourth straight trip to the conference tournament.
#1 Wesleyan (12-2, 9-1) vs. #8 Bates (8-7, 4-6)
Regular Season Outcome: Wesleyan defeated Bates 13-11
Wesleyan will be the deserving favorite in this matchup, but this isn’t your typical 1 vs. 8 seed. The Bobcats were ranked in the top 15 in many pre-season polls, and while it’s fair to say they haven’t lived up to expectations, there’s no denying this team has the talent to upset the Cardinals. In their regular season matchup, the Bobcats jumped out to a four-goal lead, but their offense sputtered (two goals in the entire second half) and Wesleyan battled back to win 13-11. If the Bobcat duo of Clarke Jones ’18 and Matt Chlastawa ’20 can outperform Wesleyan’s Harry Stanton ’18 and Ronan Jacoby ’21, Bates has a very good chance to spring the upset; however, Wesleyan’s gritty defense has the capability to slow down even the most potent of players, and I see the Cardinals edging the Bobcats in a back-and-forth affair.
Prediction: Wesleyan 14-12
#2 Amherst (13-2, 9-1) vs. #7 Bowdoin (8-6, 4-6)
Regular Season Outcome: Amherst defeated Bowdoin 16-15
These teams seem to be heading in opposite directions; Amherst has rattled off five wins in a row since their 12-11 loss to Wesleyan, out-gunning the opposition with 108 goals in that span. On the other hand, Bowdoin limped towards the finish with four consecutive losses, most recently at the hands of Tufts. The Polar Bears’ defense limited the ‘CAC’s second-leading scorer Evan Wolf (’19) to just a single goal in their last matchup, but leading scorer Jon Coffey ’20 (3 goals) and Colin Minicus ’20 (6 goals) picked up the slack. Bowdoin’s defense is solid, but they lack the offensive firepower to keep up with the Mammoths.
Prediction: Amherst 19-13
Tufts handled Midd just fine in the regular season, thanks to a big streak of goals.
#3 Tufts (13-1, 9-1) vs. #6 Middlebury (9-6, 5-5)
Regular Season Outcome: Tufts defeated Middlebury 13-10
Tufts and Middlebury played this past Saturday, where the Jumbos overcame a slow start to defeat the Panthers by three. Although the result was not what the Panther faithful would have liked to see, their team did pick up a huge victory over Williams during the week and ended the year winning six of their final seven games. The key for Tufts is to shut down Henry Riehl ’18 and force his teammates to beat them. Riehl had half of Middlebury’s goals against Tufts, and he can give opposing defenses fits (just ask the Ephs, who this past Saturday allowed four goals and three assists to the senior). In the end, however, the Jumbos are too talented to let the Panthers come into Medford and snatch a victory. Andrew Seitzer ’18 and co. will break down the Middlebury defense, setting up a rematch with the Mammoths.
Prediction: Tufts 17-10
#4 Williams (6-4, 8-7) vs. #5 Connecticut College (10-5, 5-5)
Regular Season Outcome: Williams defeated Conn College 11-9
The Ephs had a forgettable performance against Middlebury in which they allowed a season-high 20 goals. Fortunately for Williams, Conn doesn’t boast an electric offensive unit. The Camels perform best when they slow the game down and let their zone-defense stifle the opposition. They did so in their previous encounter with Williams, keeping it a one-goal game after three periods. Williams may have the better offensive unit, but the Camels boast the best face-off specialist in the NESCAC in Ben Parens ’18. Expect a tight contest in which neither team can impose their will over the other; I praised the Ephs in my last article, but I’ll take the mini-upset here and say the Camels defense will dictate the tempo and steal a road win.
Editor’s Note: I’m sure many Northeastern NESCAC fans are going to be excited about our debut piece on lacrosse, written by new contributor Ryan Moralejo from Bates. While this coverage won’t be as consistent as our three main sports, more is coming, so get stoked!
As the regular season comes to a close, no seeding position is safe. At the top of the conference we have Amherst, Tufts and Wesleyan all battling for the regular season title and the prize that comes with it: home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In the middle of the standings, Williams, Conn, Bowdoin, Midd, and Bates are jockeying for seeding, waiting for someone to slip up and fall off the pack. Further down, a matchup of two Mainers looms in the distance with postseason aspirations on the line. There’s a lot to cover in a short amount of time, so let’s get to it.
#4 Amherst: 11-2, (7-1)
Last Week: 24-11 W @ Conn College, 20 – 16 W @ Tufts
This Week: vs. Bates
While Amherst’s decisive victory over Conn College was impressive, the Mammoths earned the top spot on the list due to their most recent victory over the previously undefeated Jumbos. Led by Evan Wolf ’19 and Matt Solberg ’20, Amherst blitzed Tufts in the first half, jumping out to a 15-5 lead. They boast four of the top 10 goal scorers in the ‘CAC, highlighted by Wolf’s league-leading 28. Amherst’s high-octane offense has accounted for a mind-blowing 155 goals in eight conference games, and since their nail-biting loss on the road to Wesleyan, the Mammoths have rattled off three straight – all against top-tier conference opponents. They will undoubtedly be favored next weekend versus Bates on Senior Day, but can’t afford to rest their laurels on Saturday’s performance.
The Mammoths hold the top spot in this week’s rankings.
#6 Tufts: 10-1 (6-1)
Last Week: 12-11 W (OT) @ Endicott, 20-16 L vs. Amherst
This Week: vs. Bates, @ Middlebury
The Jumbos were riding high after their 14-10 victory over Wesleyan; however, their two most recent performances (a closer-than-expected overtime win against a 4-9 Endicott squad and a home loss to Amherst) brought Tufts back down to earth. While the Jumbos don’t have a particular individual who excels offensively, they do have the second-most goals in conference play thanks to six double-digit scorers. Before Saturday’s dismal showing, goalie Mason Pollack ’20 was second in the ‘CAC in goals allowed per game (9.25); he’ll need to brush off his performance versus Amherst and right the ship quickly as the Jumbos head into Lewiston to take on the Bobcats.
#5 Wesleyan (7-1)
Last Week: 11-6 W @ Trinity, 12-8 W vs. Bowdoin
This Week: @ Hamilton
Cardinals fans might be a little displeased to see their #5 nationally-ranked squad listed third in their own conference rankings. Honestly, I almost bumped them ahead of Tufts, but the Jumbos own the head-to-head victory. There’s a lot to like about this Cardinals team: they boast the league’s best defense in large part due to goalie Otto Bohan ’21, who ranks tops in save percentage and wins. Their offense isn’t too shabby either: Ronan Jacoby ’21 totaled nine goals against Trinity and Bowdoin, adding to his scorching-hot rookie campaign. Last year’s top goal scorer and point leader Harry Stanton ’18 has 23 goals to date, and Carter Hawthorne ’19 leads the league in assists. Despite this three-headed monster, the Cardinals are middle of the pack in goals scored. Saturday’s date with Hamilton should be fairly easy to maneuver around, but they’ll need to find another source for offensive production if they want to repeat as NESCAC champions.
Williams 6-6 (5-3)
Last Week: 9-5 W vs. Hamilton, 16-12 W vs. Colby
This Week: @ Western New England, @ Bowdoin
While the overall record isn’t pretty, the Ephs are a gritty bunch and will be a tough outcome tourney time. Their 5-3 record in conference play is solid, and they only lost to Wesleyan by one and Tufts by three. They have the capability to go toe-to-toe with any team in the conference if I ignore their 19-9 shellacking against Amherst. Offensively, Williams is run through Kevin Stump ’20 and James McFarland ’18 who both went to work this past Saturday against Colby. McFarland led the way with six goals while Stump added three of his own to go along with four assists. Williams also has a solid goalkeeper in George Peele ’20, as the sophomore ranks second in save and win percentage. The Ephs have a non-conference tilt with Western New England before a huge matchup with Bowdoin: a win could move Williams closer to solidifying the fourth seed for the conference tournament, but a loss could open the door to the likes of Conn College and/or the Polar Bears to move up from behind.
Connecticut College 9-4 (5-4)
Last Week: 24-11 L vs. Amherst, 8-5 W vs. Hamilton
This Week: vs. Stockton
The Camels couldn’t bounce back from their collapse against Bates two Saturday’s ago, falling 24-11 to Amherst this past Tuesday. Fortunately for them, they hosted Hamilton this past weekend (for those counting, this is the second time I’ve mentioned Hamilton in a negative manner before getting to their ranking, so you get the idea). They did just enough to secure an 8-5 victory over the Continentals, shutting them out in the fourth quarter.
The Camels are all about defense, allowing fewer than ten goals a game; however, they really struggle on the offensive end and would be downright helpless without stud midi, Ben Parens ’18, dominating face offs. Conn basically has three players capable of scoring: Jordan Foster ‘19, Maxx Trotsky ’20 and PJ Kelleher ’19 form a trio that compile 77 of Conn’s 83 total goals. The Camels are off from NESCAC play this weekend and will need to solve some of their offensive woes if they want to shock Wesleyan in their season finale.
Bowdoin 8-4 (4-4)
Last Week: 8-7 L vs. Colby, 12-8 L @ Wesleyan
This Week: vs. Williams
The Polar Bears dropped both their conference games this week. On the road against Wesleyan is acceptable, but losing to Colby? Most Polar Bear faithful would agree this was a disheartening performance against their inferior rival, and it could cost Bowdoin come seeding time. The team’s leading scorer, Brett Kujala ’20, was a non-factor in Tuesday’s tilt, and the Polar Bears mustered up a mere eight goals against a Mule defense allowing nearly double that figure. On the bright side, they improved their sturdy defensive stats, lowering their goals allowed per game to 9.63. That figure trails only Wesleyan, and they’ll need their defense to be sharp come Saturday against Williams: a win would negate the Colby loss and keep the Polar Bears in the hunt for the #4 seed.
Middlebury: 7-5 (4-4)
Last Week: 12-11 W @Springfield, 13-12 W vs. Trinity
Next Week: @ Endicott, vs. Tufts
The Panthers are on a nice four-game win streak: sure they barely squeaked by Colby and Trinity, but no victory is a given during NESCAC play (unless you’re playing Hamilton). AJ Kucinski ’20 and Henry Riehl ‘18 lead a balanced offensive attack that features five players with at least nine goals. The Panthers are still searching for their first marquee win of the season, as their victory over Bates represents their best win to date. Fortunately for Middlebury, they host Tufts on Saturday. The key for the Panthers will be to shore up the defense (11.25 goals a game, third-last in the ‘CAC) if they want to pull off the upset.
Bates has fallen a long way since 2017.
Bates (7-5) (3-4)
Last Week: None
This Week: vs. Tufts, @ Amherst
Prior to this week’s hiatus from games due to Finals Week, the Bobcats had quite the emotional rollercoaster. They fell to in-state rival Bowdoin on a last-second goal from Sam Carlin ’19 and were trailing Conn College 10-8 with just under three minutes to play. Senior captain Clark Jones ’18 scored two goals to knot it up, and Andrew Small ’19 broke the deadlock in overtime to give Bates its biggest win of the season. Clark sits tied for third in the ‘CAC with 23 goals, and Matt Chlastawa (LA-STAH-VAH, I think) is third in total points with 21 goals and 18 assists. Bates’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack allowing fewer than 11 goals a game, and it will be severely tested against the two most dynamic offense squads in the league; the Bobcats welcome the Jumbos on Tuesday before traveling to Massachusetts in a matchup with the Mammoths. They’ll need production from their dynamic duo in order spring a potential upset or two.
Colby: 4-6 (2-6)
Last Week: 8-7 W @Bowdoin, 16-12 L @ Williams
This Week: @ Maine Maritime, vs. Trinity
The Mules check in at #9 on the list after snagging a huge win over the Polar Bears this past Wednesday. Colby’s defense, which had been a weak point all season, clamped down and allowed just seven goals, while junior midfielder Tucker Dietrick ’18 featured in five of the Mules’ eight scores. Despite their most recent loss to Williams, Colby’s play has definitely picked up over the past three weeks, which is probably due to the selection of the “Wal-Mart Boy Remix” as their goal song. Should the Bobcats lose both games this week, Colby will host Bates in what could be a doozy: in-state rivals battling for the last remaining play-off spot in the regular season finale. Lose to Trinity, however, and a victory by the Bobcats over Amherst and/or Tufts would eliminate the Mules from playoff contention.
Trinity 4-8 (1-7)
Last Week: 11-6 L vs. Wesleyan, 13-12 L vs. Middlebury
This Week: @ Colby
After picking up their first conference win of the season against Hamilton, the Bantams lost at home to both Wesleyan and Middlebury. The latter fixture was particularly painful as Trinity fought to cut the lead to one with 9:47 left in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t find that last gear. The loss knocked the Bantams out of playoff contention; the best they could do is win out against Colby and Amherst, bringing them into a tie for 8th (the Bobcats own the head-to-head victory). Leading scorer Drew Kozub ’21 was limited to a single goal after firing in five against Hamilton. He’ll look to get back on track and lead the charge into Waterville this Saturday.
It’s a good photo, but Hamilton doesn’t have too much else to be happy about here.
Hamilton: 1-12 (0-9)
Last Week: 9-5 L @ Williams, 8-5 L @ Conn College
This Week: vs. Wesleyan
Yes, Hamilton played better this weekend against quality sides in Williams and Conn, but they’re still winless in conference play. They’re nearly dead last in every offensive and defensive category, which is normally not what you want to hear if you’re a Continental fan. Can they beat Wesleyan this weekend and avoid the winless conference campaign? It’s possible, but not very likely.
On the bright side, leading goal marksman Chad Morse ’19 had a hat trick against Williams, bringing his goal tally to 13. Also, I found this neat photo of him so I had to give him a shout out.
