Conference Tournament Weekend Preview and Predictions
The NESCAC Tournament is finally here. Weeks of grueling conference play filtered out the weak, leaving the top eight teams to battle for the right to be crowned champion and earn an automatic trip to the NCAA Tournament. Will the traditional powers of Amherst, Tufts and Wesleyan continue their dominance and roll to the semifinals, or will a lower seed play spoiler?
Usually there’s a matchup or two in conference tournaments where one team is significantly favored over the other; however, each of these bouts features teams in which their previous regular season encounters were decided by no more than three goals. While this doesn’t necessarily mean every game will be close, it makes the matchups more enticing and increases the opportunity for upsets to occur.
Before dissecting the quarterfinal matchups, here’s how some of the playoff seeds were secured:
Jockeying for the top two spots: Wesleyan finished tied with Amherst and Tufts atop the conference at 9-1. All three share the same record against the top eight opponents in the NESCAC, so by rule the top overall seed was selected via a suspenseful name drawing from a hat. Amherst was awarded the second seed due to their head-to-head victory over the Jumbos.
Movement in the Middle: Conn College snagged the fifth seed due to their head-to-head victory over Middlebury. The Panthers jumped up a spot to sixth with a huge victory over Williams, while Bowdoin’s loss to Wesleyan dropped the Polar Bears to seventh.
Bobcats Snag the Last Spot: In what came down to a winner-take-all matchup between rivals Bates and Colby, the Bobcats left Waterville victorious and secured their fourth straight trip to the conference tournament.
#1 Wesleyan (12-2, 9-1) vs. #8 Bates (8-7, 4-6)
Regular Season Outcome: Wesleyan defeated Bates 13-11
Wesleyan will be the deserving favorite in this matchup, but this isn’t your typical 1 vs. 8 seed. The Bobcats were ranked in the top 15 in many pre-season polls, and while it’s fair to say they haven’t lived up to expectations, there’s no denying this team has the talent to upset the Cardinals. In their regular season matchup, the Bobcats jumped out to a four-goal lead, but their offense sputtered (two goals in the entire second half) and Wesleyan battled back to win 13-11. If the Bobcat duo of Clarke Jones ’18 and Matt Chlastawa ’20 can outperform Wesleyan’s Harry Stanton ’18 and Ronan Jacoby ’21, Bates has a very good chance to spring the upset; however, Wesleyan’s gritty defense has the capability to slow down even the most potent of players, and I see the Cardinals edging the Bobcats in a back-and-forth affair.
Prediction: Wesleyan 14-12
#2 Amherst (13-2, 9-1) vs. #7 Bowdoin (8-6, 4-6)
Regular Season Outcome: Amherst defeated Bowdoin 16-15
These teams seem to be heading in opposite directions; Amherst has rattled off five wins in a row since their 12-11 loss to Wesleyan, out-gunning the opposition with 108 goals in that span. On the other hand, Bowdoin limped towards the finish with four consecutive losses, most recently at the hands of Tufts. The Polar Bears’ defense limited the ‘CAC’s second-leading scorer Evan Wolf (’19) to just a single goal in their last matchup, but leading scorer Jon Coffey ’20 (3 goals) and Colin Minicus ’20 (6 goals) picked up the slack. Bowdoin’s defense is solid, but they lack the offensive firepower to keep up with the Mammoths.
Prediction: Amherst 19-13
#3 Tufts (13-1, 9-1) vs. #6 Middlebury (9-6, 5-5)
Regular Season Outcome: Tufts defeated Middlebury 13-10
Tufts and Middlebury played this past Saturday, where the Jumbos overcame a slow start to defeat the Panthers by three. Although the result was not what the Panther faithful would have liked to see, their team did pick up a huge victory over Williams during the week and ended the year winning six of their final seven games. The key for Tufts is to shut down Henry Riehl ’18 and force his teammates to beat them. Riehl had half of Middlebury’s goals against Tufts, and he can give opposing defenses fits (just ask the Ephs, who this past Saturday allowed four goals and three assists to the senior). In the end, however, the Jumbos are too talented to let the Panthers come into Medford and snatch a victory. Andrew Seitzer ’18 and co. will break down the Middlebury defense, setting up a rematch with the Mammoths.
Prediction: Tufts 17-10
#4 Williams (6-4, 8-7) vs. #5 Connecticut College (10-5, 5-5)
Regular Season Outcome: Williams defeated Conn College 11-9
The Ephs had a forgettable performance against Middlebury in which they allowed a season-high 20 goals. Fortunately for Williams, Conn doesn’t boast an electric offensive unit. The Camels perform best when they slow the game down and let their zone-defense stifle the opposition. They did so in their previous encounter with Williams, keeping it a one-goal game after three periods. Williams may have the better offensive unit, but the Camels boast the best face-off specialist in the NESCAC in Ben Parens ’18. Expect a tight contest in which neither team can impose their will over the other; I praised the Ephs in my last article, but I’ll take the mini-upset here and say the Camels defense will dictate the tempo and steal a road win.
Prediction: Conn College 10-9