Who Are The Real Contenders?: Weekend Preview 9/28

Editor’s note: In addition to the weekend preview I wanted to update everyone on how our writers have been doing in picking the winners of each game. The majority of the games have been pretty easy to pick, but there have definitely been some early surprises. Our predicted scores have typically been pretty close to the actual scores, but Ryan Moralejo is the only writer to have correctly predicted the score of any of the games so far. Hopefully it doesn’t get any easier!

Matt Karpowicz: 8-2
Haven Cutko: 8-2
Ryan Moralejo: 7-3 (1 correct score)
Spencer Smead: 7-3
Cameron Carlson: 7-3

Colby @ Hamilton, 12pm, Clinton, NY

If we picked our Game of the Week based solely on competitiveness rather than championship implications, this game would absolutely be in the running. However, both of these teams have yet to prove that they belong in that conversation. Hamilton has been the one team the CBB schools have been reasonably within reach of beating in recent years. If any of the Maine teams want to get respect outside of the CBB, they need to start by beating Hamilton. Colby was able to do this last year, which suggested that they may be trending towards competitiveness in the middle tier of the league. However, starting off 0-2 and only putting up 10 points in each game has provided everyone with a reality check. Hamilton will provide less of a challenge for the Mules than Wesleyan and Amherst, so this is Coach Cosgrove’s best chance yet to show the league what his team can do. They will need to contain Continentals RB David Kagan, who has gotten off to a terrific start this season in leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Hamilton also leads the league in total rushing yards. Both teams have talented QBs who will be looking to prove themselves this Saturday. If you aren’t focused on end of season results and just want to see competitive NESCAC football, this should be an entertaining game to watch. 

Hamilton proved that they can (sometimes) compete with the league’s middle tier last season when they beat Wesleyan. Colby has not been able to show this with any team outside of the CBB except in their victory last year against Hamilton. On top of that, having to make the seven hour haul across New England never makes a team’s task easier. Hamilton has shown a little more offensive firepower this season (albeit mostly against Bowdoin), so I’ll take them in a tight one. 

SS: Colby 31, Hamilton 17 
CC: Colby 24, Hamilton 21 
HC: Hamilton 24, Colby 20 
MK: Hamilton 28, Colby 21 
RM: Hamilton 34, Colby 24

Writers’ Pick: Hamilton

Bowdoin @ Williams, 1pm, Williamstown, MA

Austin McCrum is doing everything he can to keep the Polar Bears competitive

You have to feel for the Polar Bears. Having to visit a Williams team that just put up 44 on Tufts certainly is not ideal…especially not coming off a game where you got 60 pieced. The scary thing is that the Williams offense very well could be just as good as Trinity’s this year. Polar Bears, just try to make it through these next couple weeks injury-free and you will (hopefully) get to play some close games at the end of the season. I hate to kick Bowdoin while they’re already down, but it’s very difficult to find any bright spots from their performance last week. It’s promising to see that they have some balance in their offense, with six players registering a carry and seven registering a catch. Now, the next step is for these guys to do this more often and maybe take that ball into the endzone while they’re at it. Easy, right?

I wish I could say that this is a trap game for Williams, but at this point I honestly think it would be a reach to even call it that. The Ephs’ offense showed what they were capable of last week and absolutely shredded a solid Tufts defense. Bobby Maimaron and Frank Stola looked like Montana and Rice, linking up for 13 completions, 233 yards and 4 touchdowns. They also got their run game going, as both Maimaron and RB Dan Vaughn were within 10 yards of the century mark. Even kicker Andrew Schreibstein (whom I personally ripped on after his brutal first week) stepped up big time. He was 3/3 on field goals and 5/5 on extra points while earning Special Teams Player of the Week. The CBB contests can’t come soon enough for Bowdoin. 

SS: Williams 38, Bowdoin 7
CC: Williams 42, Bowdoin 7
HC: Williams 42, Bowdoin 7 
MK: Williams 35, Bowdoin 6 
RM: Williams 49, Bowdoin 10

Writers’ Pick: Williams

Amherst @ Tufts, 1pm, Medford, MA

This is another game that was under consideration for our Game of the Week. While it very well could live up to all expectations, it’s hard to feel good about Tufts’ chances after Williams absolutely had their way with them last week. At the same time, we still can’t forget that it’s a Jumbos team that also held Trinity to eight points just a week earlier. This inconsistency is the opposite of what Amherst has shown us so far, as they have played solid football since a rocky first half at Bates and have wins against the Bobcats and Colby under their belt. It’s been the usual suspects making plays for the Mammoths. Senior QB Ollie Eberth and classmate James O’Regan have already connected for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Tufts shut down Trinity’s three headed monster of receivers in their first game, but got lit up by Bobby Maimaron and Frank Stola of Williams a week later. If the Jumbos’ week one caliber defense returns, Amherst will have their hands full- the Mammoths have had a bit of a cakewalk so far. However, Coach Civetti’s first priority should be figuring out who Tufts will start under center. Trevon Woodson replaced Jacob Carroll in the midst of the beatdown last weekend and completed 12 of 17 passes, but also threw a pick. Neither quarterback has shown a ton of promise yet, so this week of practice will likely be a big factor in determining who gets the start on Saturday. Whoever we see out there would be smart to throw the ball to WR OJ Armstrong, who sits third in the league at 13 receptions and added a touchdown last week to boot. If the Jumbos cannot create holes for RB Mike Pedrini, they will need to rely on Armstrong and likely Woodson to make plays. Amherst’s defense does not look like they have fallen off since losing Andrew Yamin, only allowing 11.5 points per game. While we have not seen Tufts’ offense play to its potential, it’s a safe bet to say that they will have a little more firepower up their sleeve than Bates and Colby did. 

If Tufts’ performances in the last two weeks were reversed, I might feel differently about this game. And it would be especially interesting to see them, Trinity, and Hamilton all get wins this week, which would put six teams at 2-1 while leaving Wesleyan unscathed at the top. Realistically, though, they have not shown me enough on offense for me to predict them outplaying a traditionally strong Amherst D- especially in the midst of a possible quarterback controversy. Amherst is well coached, veteran-led and will be ready for their first legitimate test. 

SS: Tufts 21, Amherst 17
CC: Amherst 20, Tufts 14
HC: Amherst 24, Tufts 13
MK: Amherst 20, Tufts 14
RM: Amherst 27, Tufts 23

Writers’ Pick: Amherst

Trinity @ Middlebury, 1pm, Middlebury, VT

Trinity clearly had some steam to blow off coming into last week’s contest against Bowdoin 0-1, and Bowdoin is a great team to play if you like to blow off steam by scoring touchdowns. The Bantams’ offense woke up and dropped a seemingly effortless 61 points, led by receiver Devante Reid’s four touchdowns. Trinity successfully reminded everyone who the NESCAC’s daddy is, but their backs are still up against the wall and they can’t afford another loss this week against a very game Middlebury team. This is not a team that is used to losing more than one game. In fact, they did not have a losing record at any point in a season from 2001 up until their week one defeat at Tufts. As always, Devanney and company will feel the pressure to continue their tradition of dominance heading up to Vermont. The Panthers will have their own motivation after getting completely obliterated to the tune of a 48-0 loss last year in the Coop. This is our Game of the Week so I won’t go into all the details, but this Middlebury defense is not what it was last year. They sit right behind Trinity at second in yards allowed per game. Trinity will need to come out sharp from the jump if they want to continue their campaign for a four-peat. Fortunately for them, I have enough faith in their traditional success and their offensive weapons to pick them in a good one. 

SS: Trinity 28, Middlebury 24 
CC: Trinity 31, Middlebury 21 
HC: Trinity 27, Middlebury 20
MK: Trinity 31, Middlebury 17
RM: Trinity 27, Middlebury 14

Writers’ Pick: Trinity

Bates @ Wesleyan, 1pm, Middletown, CT

Wesleyan has sort of been sneaking under the league’s radar because they have yet to take on the heavyweights. They shouldn’t be slept on, though, because they currently have the best chance to be on top of the standings Saturday night at 3-0. This is looking like a Cardinals team carried by their defense, which is especially impressive given that they had the league’s best defensive player, DL Taj Gooden, on the sidelines in Week 2 while he served a suspension for shoving a referee in Week 1. Even without him, the defense has already recovered two fumbles and picked off six passes (most in the league), so Bates will need to be especially careful with the football. Ashton Scott is looking like the guy under center, passing for six TDs while also rushing for 150+ yards so far this year. 

Tyler Bridge has been one of the lone bright spots for the Bobcats so far

Everyone wants the CBB teams to be more competitive with the rest of the league, so it was disheartening to see Bates get shut out by Middlebury after a promising first week performance against Amherst. Getting a win may be a stretch, but Bates should be doing all it can not to take another step back this week. While their overall stats have not looked good, there are certainly some individual performances to feel good about. Freshman LB Tony Hooks had nine tackles last week, including three for loss. Another freshman (and a Maine native), running back Tyler Bridge has stepped in to take some carries and has shown promise as a 6’3” speedster. So, while the scoreboard may not be what the Bobcats want to see right now, their fans should be excited about the team’s young talent and coach Malik Hall’s ability to recruit. To add insult to injury, Bates’ two top QBs have a concussion and mono, so whoever we see come out as their third stringer will have the pleasure of figuring out Wesleyan’s defense on the road. Hang in there Bobcats, your schedule gets easier. 

HC: Wesleyan 31, Bates 0
CC: Wesleyan 31, Bates 6 
SS: Wesleyan 28, Bates 13 
MK: Wesleyan 31, Bates 7 
RM: Wesleyan 27, Bates 13

Writers’ Pick: Wesleyan

Where Do They Go From Here?: Tufts vs. Williams Game of the Week Preview

This week’s best matchup pits two teams against each other that both surprised us last week. We knew Tufts was going to be pretty good, but not “hold Trinity to eight points and beat them for the first time since 1995” good. Williams, a team that many are high on coming into the season due to their strong returning talent, fell to Middlebury on a touchdown in the last minute by Panthers QB Will Jernigan ‘21. Both of these games produced results that none of our writers predicted. While it’s unfortunate that good teams like Williams and Trinity could have their title hopes dashed with a single bad day in Week One, it’s exciting to already have parity in the league that we did not see last season. This week’s matchup in Williamstown will tell us a lot about where these two teams stand.

Key #1 for Tufts: Defensive Line Pressure 

X-Factor: Jovan Nenadovic ‘22

A big reason this team was able to shake up the league with their upset last week was their defensive front. They sacked Trinity’s QBs 6 times and forced them into 2 interceptions. Trinity had several weapons at receiver, but it’s hard to get them the ball when there are guys constantly in the backfield that aren’t supposed to be there. Tufts also did not allow many lanes for runners, as the Bantams’ new starting RB was only able to get 2.3 yards per carry and had fewer than half the rushing yards of his quarterback. If Tufts’ D-line can get this production against a massive offensive line that is usually one of the NESCAC’s best, it should bode well for this Saturday. Nenadovic, piling up three sacks and five tackles for loss, will be counted on again to get after Williams QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21. Maimaron is an experienced and talented dual threat quarterback, so it will be a tall task for the Jumbos to keep him in check. If Tufts’ defensive front can be in the backfield as much as they were last week, the Ephs could be starting off 0-2. 

Key #2 for Tufts: All Gas No Brakes 

We’ve seen it countless times in sports. A team pulls off a massive upset, and then in their next game they rest on their laurels and falter against a lesser opponent. If Tufts gets complacent this week and does not come out with the same effort they did against Trinity, their title chances could take a major hit in Williamstown. This year’s Ephs team is not much of a drop off from Trinity- if at all (only time will tell). Tufts won this game last year, so that would be more reason to underestimate the Ephs, but Coach Civetti will certainly not have his boys overlooking what has been one of the NESCAC’s best teams in recent years. Tufts will need to bring the same intensity this week and not get complacent, or they could take one on the nose in a hurry. 

Key #1 for Williams: Let Maimaron Rip 

Eyebrows were raised around the league last week when Williams only put up 13 points against Middlebury, a team not traditionally known for their defense. Ephs QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21 is arguably the NESCAC’s best signal-caller this year, so it was surprising to see him not put up better numbers against a secondary that has been suspect in the past couple of seasons. However, his talent and pedigree should give Coach Raymond all the more reason to trust him to make plays this week against what will likely be a better defense than Middlebury’s. Maimaron has the ability to escape the pocket and make plays on the run, which will be vital against a Tufts defensive line that was all over Trinity’s QBs last week. He also had 39 rushing yards…which led the team. That statistic doesn’t bode well against the team that shut down Trinity’s run game last week. Because the prospects of pounding it up the middle do not look ideal, Maimaron should get lots of opportunities to find his weapons and make some plays with his feet this Saturday. He has proven himself in the NESCAC already, so all he needs is a few big plays against the Jumbos to get his confidence back up and his offense humming. 

Key #2 for Williams: Clean It Up

Last week, Williams topped Middlebury in total offense and time of possession while only turning the ball over once. Middlebury was not outstanding in any one area. So how did the Ephs come up short on the scoreboard? Well, for starters, Williams kicker Andrew Schreibstein ‘22 missed his only field goal attempt and one of his two extra point attempts… leaving the four points that Middlebury won by on the field. That being said, I know that kicking is not an easy thing to take on and that it’s a team game- so I won’t put all the blame on my guy here. The TEAM was flagged 9 times for 55 yards, certainly not insignificant in a tight game. Williams will need to be more disciplined if they want to have their way this weekend. I don’t think IQs have dropped too much in Williamstown since last season, so expect kicks to be executed and football rules to be followed to a higher degree on Saturday.

Everything Else: 

This game gained exponentially more intrigue after last weekend, because it went from a key matchup of teams gunning for second place to possibly having title implications. For Williams, a second loss would likely kill any prospects of a championship- which takes a lot of the fun out of the season when expectations are so high. Tufts now knows they’re right up there with the big dogs of the league, so expect them to have a swagger this weekend reflecting that. It will be very exciting to see Williams’ offensive weapons go head to head against a Tufts defense that proved last week it can play with the best. Last year these two teams played one of the NESCAC’s most competitive games of the season, a 28-21 win for Tufts on their home turf. This year’s result should be just as tight. I’ll take the Ephs in a tossup.

Prediction: Williams 30-24

Is This the Year?: Williams Football Preview 2019

2018 Record: 5-4

2019 Projected Record: 7-2

Projected Offensive Starters (*9 returning)

QB – Bobby Maimaron ‘21*

RB – Carter Begel ‘22*

RB – TJ Dozier ‘21*

WR – Frank Stola ‘21*

WR – Justin Nelson ‘21*

TE – Justin Burke ‘21*

LG – Pat Watson ‘21

LT – Jeremy Subjinski ‘20*

C – Jeff MacArthur ‘20*

RG – John Rooney ‘20*

RT – Ryan Pruss ‘20

Projected Defensive Starters (*6 returning)

S – Ben Anthony ‘20*

S – Ed Manzella ‘21

CB – Jake Kastenhuber ‘21*

CB – TBD

OLB – Coleston Smith ‘22

ILB – TJ Rothmann ‘21*

ILB – Jarrett Wesner ‘21*

OLB – Luke Apuzzi ‘21*

DE – Oscar Unobskey ‘20*

DT – TBD

DE – TBD

Projected Specialists (*2 Returning)

K/P – Andrew Schreibstein ‘22*

KR/PR – Frank Stola ‘21*

Offensive MVP: QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21

There are so many people who need to perform at a high, high level for the Ephs to have a chance to win the league this year, but none moreso than their junior signal caller under center. It was a weird sophomore season for Maimaron, who earned ROY honors in his magical freshman season that saw Williams go from 0-8 to 6-3. He was one of the top ball carriers in the entire league, finishing 4 th in rushing yards per game (68.4) and 5 th in rushing TDs (8). But his yards per carry only jumped from 3.4 yards to 3.8, the only evident change in his rushing numbers was due to the number of carries. There were a number of reasons outside of his control for why he went from throwing for 200 yards per game and completing 58% of his passes to just 143 yards per game and a 53% completion percentage—lack of weapons, playcalling, line play, etc., but those numbers need to look a lot more like his 2017 numbers than his 2018 numbers. Luckily, Maimaron could be the most talented QB in the league, or most talented player in the league for that matter, he just needs to prove it.

Defensive MVP: CB Jake Kastenhuber ‘21

Kastenhuber makes the move over to cornerback this season after spending his first two patrolling the secondary as a safety. Williams graduated both of its starting corners last year, and the fact that they felt the need to move a two-year starter over to fill a need speaks to their lack of confidence in being able to find other CBs on the roster. Hopefully it is a seamless transition for Kastenhuber because the Ephs have struggled with locking down the top wide receivers around the league in recent years, and their lack of depth on the defensive line means they cannot afford to have any holes elsewhere.

Biggest Game: September 14th @ Middlebury

This is an absolute must win for both teams, and I would imagine they know that. But especially for the Ephs with the way their schedule is so backloaded. I’m sure most people are aware and will be made more aware as the season progresses, but for those who don’t know, Williams, Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity all play each other in the last 3 weeks of the season. If any of those teams have serious championship aspirations, they better plan on showing up for their Week 7 matchup with an unblemished 6-0 record. Beating Middlebury on the road Week 1 and defending home turf against Tufts the following week is certainly doable for Williams, who really could be 6-0 when that last stretch rolls around. It all starts on Saturday.

Everything Else:

It was a weird 2018 season for Williams, which makes forecasting this season pretty tough. On one hand, they were the only team to beat Trinity last year. On the other hand, they went 1-4 in their final 5 games, a combination of catching the injury bug and a touch of complacency following their big win against the eventual champs. The good news is that they return all but 6 of their points, and their 8 leading tacklers. On paper, they should be poised to take a huge leap forward. But the bad news is that they do not appear to have improved their weaknesses from last season—namely the defensive line, cornerbacks, and the ability to stay healthy. The front 3 is still largely up for grabs, as is one of the starting CB spots, and they already lost their expected starting RT, freshman John Freeman, for the year.

WR Frank Stola ’21 evades a Middlebury tackler during a 2018 game

So, one of two things (preferably both) needs to happen. The first is that the studs they have been able to rely on for 2 or 3 years now need to really carry this team—Maimaron, all-league WR Frank Stola ’21, and their arguably league-best linebacking core, led by all-league juniors Jarrett Wesner and TJ Rothmann. These guys need to ball out and stay healthy. The other thing is that guys whose names we don’t know yet need to have breakthrough seasons. The overwhelming individual talent in the junior class across the board for Coach Mark Raymond has made it tough for other guys, namely in the sophomore and senior classes, to find playing time, but injuries and graduation have finally opened some holes up.

This team is one of the best in the league, without a doubt. They just need a little bit more help if they hope to achieve what they really want to achieve. This might not be the year yet, but then again, they are arguably the favorite to win each of their first 7 games, if they ever get over their mental block against Wesleyan. Show up 7-0, give Trinity a run for their money in Week 8, and defend their home turf against Amherst in the finale? Maybe go 8-1 and see what happens? Crazier things have happened.