Trinity Isn’t Number 1: Week 1 Power Rankings

The return of NESCAC football also brings with it the return of our weekly power rankings. Our weekly power rankings are one of my favorite things we do because they are almost entirely subjective and opinion-based and yet they make people very upset. I have been blessed with the opportunity to rank 10 entire college football teams based almost exclusively upon 60 whole minutes of football—this should be a ton of fun.

IMPORTANT LINK: https://www.nescac.com/sports/fball/2019-20/standings

I have gone ahead and included the link to the standings after Week 1. This link is for the people who think that the power rankings and the standings are the same thing: I have saved you 5-10 minutes of your life reading this article. For the rest of us, let’s get into it.

1. Amherst (1-0)

The Mammoths certainly don’t get any points for style in their 27-13 win over Bates, a game they found themselves trailing 13-6 at the half. Any questions that were asked of this team over the summer still linger—whether or not they will be able to replace their two leading rushers, or if they will be able to overcome the loss of 4 of their top 5 tacklers to graduation. QB Ollie Eberth ’20 looked good not great, going 15-31 for 236 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT, but Amherst certainly will not complain about emerging from a hectic Week 1 at 1-0.

2. Tufts (1-0)

How about the Jumbos? I was tempted to put them a little bit lower, but it would have been almost impossible to justify after they held the Trinity offense to just 8 points. The defense sacked QB Seamus Lambert ’22 6 times on Saturday, 3 of which came from DPOW DE Jovan Nenadovic ’22. I’m not quite ready to say that Tufts is a true championship contender but beating Trinity in Week 1 will go a long way to getting them in the conversation. First time starting QB Jacob Carroll ’20 was 13-23 for 173 yards and 2 TDs, but 128 of those yards came on 3 catches of 30+ yards to 3 different Tufts receivers. RB Mike Pedrini ’21 will need to give them more than 71 yards on 27 carries if they hope to remain at the top, but it’s tough to be upset about anything after this start to the season.

3. Trinity (0-1)

The Bantams are still the class of the league, but it’ll be an uphill battle the rest of the way

Before you complain: name 3 teams you know for sure are better than the 3-time defending league champions. Okay, glad we got that out of the way. Yes, it was a very disappointing week for the Bantams, whose gave them 8 points after having the third highest scoring season (324) in league history to pair with the most total offense (4179) in league history. I say this all to remind everyone of the talent this team has on paper. Yes, QB Seamus Lambert’s performance and the fact that he was pulled late for Jordan Vazzano ’21 do not give Trinity fans a lot to write home about, but there is a whole lot of football left and this team is too talented to not be able to figure it out. They have a free win on Saturday against Bowdoin and then a bit of a test Week 3 against Middlebury, a team they are also better than. If they beat Middlebury, they should show up in Week 7 at 5-1. Everyone calm down.

4. Middlebury (1-0)

This is where it starts to get tricky, but give me the Panthers here, who had almost as impressive a win as Tufts, beating Williams on a late, dramatic TD drive. After accumulating just 218 yards of total offense all day, QB Will Jernigan ’21 led the Panthers on a 7 play, 78-yard drive in just 2:01, having taken over at their own 22 with just 2:31 left on the clock. The only reason it is difficult to assess their performance is because of how little we still know about Williams, who came into the game already banged up and looking like a carbon copy of the worst version of their offensive selves from last season. 2 months from now, this Middlebury win could look like a fluke, or it could look completely unremarkable—it depends on both teams’ trajectories.

5. Williams (0-1)

The Williams defense held Midd, as I just mentioned, to just 218 yards and 10 points in the first 57 minutes and 29 seconds of the game. Yet the Panthers managed to engineer a clutch drive and found the endzone with just 30 seconds left to steal a week 1 win. But if the Ephs get a stop on that drive, they are still the same one-dimensional offense with the same flaws on defense, they are just 1-0 instead of 0-1. Yes, they traveled to Vermont with 3 of their starting linemen at the start of camp, and missing top targets TE Justin Burke ’21 and WR Rashad Morrison ’21. But everything else was the same—the rest of the league is unable to cover WR Frank Stola ’21 (6 catches, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and the running game is non-existent, 35 carries as a team for 101 yards. Unluckily for them, they don’t get the same chance as Trinity to run their confidence back up because Tufts is coming to town this weekend, but on the other hand, a win versus Tufts will be a huge confidence boost and they will be right back in the swing of things. We are going to learn A LOT about this team this week.

6. Wesleyan (1-0)

Probably a tough break for the Cardinals here, finding themselves 6th despite the fact that only 5 teams are 1-0. Apparently to some a win against Colby is impressive, but the reality in this league is that there are only 6 teams that matter in the big picture, and that will remain true until proven otherwise. QB Ashton Scott ’22 had a very impressive debut, going 18-30 for 217 yards and 3 TDs, as well as adding 76 yards on the ground, as he begins his quest to fill the very large shoes of QB Mark Piccirillo ’19. Wesleyan has Hamilton, Bates, and Bowdoin in their next three games before taking on Tufts in Week 5, so it might be awhile before we know what kind of team this is going to be. For now, they just need to continue to take care of business.

7. Hamilton (1-0)

A very fine performance by David Kagan propelled the Continentals to their first victory

Being the only remaining team to win a game this week, Hamilton slides in at 7 after defeating Bowdoin 37-24. As it has the last few years, this team will go as QB Kenny Gray ’20 goes, as talented a thrower as any in this league, despite his junior year drop off. Week 1 was not the most promising for Gray, who was just 8-20 for 157 yards and 1 TD (also adding 43 yards and another TD on the ground). RB David Kagan ’20 was the biggest bright spot for this team, earning OPOTW honors for his 195 yard and 3 TD performance, a performance which also earned him d3football.com Team of the Week honors.

8. Colby (0-1)

Always tough to rank these last three, but I’ll give Colby the early CBB nod almost strictly because they had the best record (3-6) last year. They did lose by 20 though, the biggest defeat of the week, so it’s going to be a short leash. The Colby offense had a much better day than their 10-point total would indicate, going for 364 yards of total offense. Unfortunately, it was the combination of 4 turnovers and going a whopping 1-11 on third down conversions that did this team in. Reigning co-ROY QB Matt Hersch ’22 had an iffy day, going 22-40 for 244 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, but it’s a promising sign that they trust him enough to sling it 40 times. RB Chris George’s 104 rushing yards on just 18 carries is also a cause for excitement as they look to replace RB Jake Schwern ’19.

9. Bates (0-1)

To start the road to redemption after an 0-9 campaign with a 13-6 halftime lead at Amherst is not too shabby. Unfortunately, we play 60 minutes for a reason, and the second half was sung to a different tune, as Amherst scored the only 21 points of the final 30 and won 27-13. Much like the Williams-Middlebury game, the next 8 games will give us more of a feel for how this reflects on both Bates and Amherst—was it an off game for the Mammoths or is Bates going to be stingy this year?

10. Bowdoin (0-1)

In fairness, it was 24-21 Bowdoin with just 9:26 left in this game. Then David Kagan ’20 rattled off a 70 yard run and punched one in from 4 yards out just 54 seconds later, before adding one more a few minutes later for a rather misleading 37-24 score line in favor of Hamilton. You would’ve liked to have seen a few more standout individual performances from Bowdoin if there was any confidence to be gained going forward. RB Nate Richam-Odoi (who gets a lot of buzz for his 1400 career yards) had just 61 yards on 21 carries, and QB Austin McCrum was 24-43 for 229 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. The defense did have a collective 8 tackles for loss, which is going to be something they will have to lean on if they plan on allowing 246 rushing yards a game.

Do or Die: Middlebury vs. Williams Game of the Week Preview

I can’t recall many instances in which the inaugural game of the season is an absolute must-win, but for Williams and Middlebury, Saturday’s tilt in Vermont absolutely falls in this category. For the Ephs, their roster is finally turning into a scary bunch of upperclassmen, with 15 returning starters ready to launch themselves into title contention. For the Panthers, an injury-plagued 2018 season saw them limp to a 5-4 record, and Coach Bob Ritter knows he has certain pieces that can give any team in the NESCAC problems. The first step in this sort of rebuilding process, however, is winning their home opener against one of the most talented teams in the ‘CAC. FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!

Key #1 for Williams: Establish the Passing Game 

X-Factor: Bobby Maimaron ‘21

Do-it-all quarterback Bobby Maimaron ‘21 is right up there with a few other signal callers in terms of being the best in the NESCAC, but the junior will have to prove on Saturday that he can toss the pigskin more often and efficiently. In five of eight contests from 2018, Maimaron completed less than 53% of his passes, including some sub 40% performances against Colby, Trinity, and Hamilton. Despite having a very balanced offensive approach in 2018, Williams’ overall success is predicated on its ground game; Maimaron led the team in rushing a season ago, and the Ephs return their top two backs. In order for Williams to soundly put away Middlebury (and set the precedent for the rest of the 2019 season), Maimaron must attack a pass defense that, in 2018, was slightly better than just two NESCAC teams: Bowdoin and Hamilton. The safeties and linebackers should be much improved for the Panthers, but they’re breaking in two new starting corners and have essentially zero proven depth at the position. Top reciever Frank Stola ‘21 and tight end Justin Burke ‘21 will be salivating at the thought of going 1v1 on some of Middlebury’s defenders. 

Key #2 for Williams: Clog up the Run Lanes

At the time Middlebury visited Williams last season, the Ephs were undefeated and had upset the mighty Bantams two weeks prior to cement themselves as the frontrunners for the 2018 Championship. That all came crashing down when the Panthers stifled an Ephs’ offense that (to that point) was averaging over 32 ppg, and Jernigan registered 256 all-purpose yards en route to a 21-10 road upset. Running back Pete Scibilia ‘21 had one of the best games of his career to date, totaling 143 yards on 29 carries. The Ephs allowed a total of 278 yards on the ground to the Panthers last season, and if they don’t shore up those running lanes this time around, Williams will have to find a way to score 30+ to win. 

The good news? Williams returns a ton of production within their linebacking core. TJ Rothmann ‘21, Jarrett Wesner ‘21, Luke Apuzzi ‘21 and Colston Smith ‘22 (Williams runs a 3-4-3 defense) are among the best in the league, and will be tasked with containing Jernigan and Scibilia. The defensive line has some question marks, however, as Oscar Unobskey ‘20 is the only returning starter; moreover, none of the other returners registered more than 10 tackles a season ago. 

Key #1 for Middlebury: Restrict Maimaron’s ground success

X-Factor: Pete Huggins ‘21

The team’s second-leading tackler a season ago, Huggins will most likely be tasked with spying on Maimaron tomorrow afternoon. He’ll be in charge of reading the delayed handoff exchange between Maimaron and running back TJ Dozier ‘21, as well as keeping the quarterback in check when on quarterback-designed runs and scrambles. Senior linebacker and 2018 All-Conference Second Team Defense nominee Kevin Maxwell played an instrumental part in this game a season ago, registering six sacks and a tackle for loss. Huggins and the rest of the linebacking core need to stay disciplined and force Maimaron into obvious passing downs to make things easier on their inexperienced corners. 

Key #2 for Middlebury: Get their Playmakers the Ball

Despite finishing a paltry 5-4, make no mistake: the Panthers have weapons all along the offense. In addition to the uber-productive ground game led by Scibilia and Jernigan, Middlebury has a plethora of receiving options. The only tight end better than Burke is Middlebury’s Frank Cosolito, a two-time selection on the All-Conference First Team Offense. Cosolito had a relatively quiet day against the Ephs last season (three receptions for 25 yards) but I’m expecting a much more impactful performance this time around. Receivers Maxwell Rye ‘20 and Maxim Bochman ‘20 will have a similar opportunity to their counterparts on Williams in that the Panther duo will be going up against inexperienced defensive backs. Junior corner Jake Kastenhuber ‘21 is making the move from safety this season, and as my colleague Matt Karpowicz pointed out, this is a key indicator concerning the lack of depth at that position. If Jernigan can just get his playmakers the ball in space and let them work, the Panthers will have a good chance of pulling off the upset. 

Everything Else:

Everyone thought Williams finally turned the corner with their upset of Trinity last season, only to suffer defeat at the hands of Middlebury. That inaugural loss sent the Ephs in a spiral, losing four of their last five gives and culminating in a 45-14 thrashing against Amherst. You have to think the Ephs are out for revenge, ready to spoil the Panthers’ home opener. Still, it’s a task that is much easier said than done; both teams are nearly identical on paper – two dual-threat quarterbacks who are better with their legs than their arms, a whole bunch of offensive weapons, and defenses with major holes (notably at the cornerback position). What it comes down to is simple: which team can pass the ball better? Both defensive gameplans will be centered around taking the running game away, so it will be up to Maimaron and Jernigan to win the game with their arms. The kicking situations will be a key factor to watch as well, since Middlebury’s Carter Massingill was only 1/3 on field goals a season ago; however, the quarterback that can keep the opposing defense honest throughout the entire game will leave Youngman Field at Alumni Stadium with their first win of the season. Give me the more polished thrower in Maimaron to shake off a slow first half and lead his squad to a victory.

Final Score: Williams 27, Middlebury 17

Is This the Year?: Williams Football Preview 2019

2018 Record: 5-4

2019 Projected Record: 7-2

Projected Offensive Starters (*9 returning)

QB – Bobby Maimaron ‘21*

RB – Carter Begel ‘22*

RB – TJ Dozier ‘21*

WR – Frank Stola ‘21*

WR – Justin Nelson ‘21*

TE – Justin Burke ‘21*

LG – Pat Watson ‘21

LT – Jeremy Subjinski ‘20*

C – Jeff MacArthur ‘20*

RG – John Rooney ‘20*

RT – Ryan Pruss ‘20

Projected Defensive Starters (*6 returning)

S – Ben Anthony ‘20*

S – Ed Manzella ‘21

CB – Jake Kastenhuber ‘21*

CB – TBD

OLB – Coleston Smith ‘22

ILB – TJ Rothmann ‘21*

ILB – Jarrett Wesner ‘21*

OLB – Luke Apuzzi ‘21*

DE – Oscar Unobskey ‘20*

DT – TBD

DE – TBD

Projected Specialists (*2 Returning)

K/P – Andrew Schreibstein ‘22*

KR/PR – Frank Stola ‘21*

Offensive MVP: QB Bobby Maimaron ‘21

There are so many people who need to perform at a high, high level for the Ephs to have a chance to win the league this year, but none moreso than their junior signal caller under center. It was a weird sophomore season for Maimaron, who earned ROY honors in his magical freshman season that saw Williams go from 0-8 to 6-3. He was one of the top ball carriers in the entire league, finishing 4 th in rushing yards per game (68.4) and 5 th in rushing TDs (8). But his yards per carry only jumped from 3.4 yards to 3.8, the only evident change in his rushing numbers was due to the number of carries. There were a number of reasons outside of his control for why he went from throwing for 200 yards per game and completing 58% of his passes to just 143 yards per game and a 53% completion percentage—lack of weapons, playcalling, line play, etc., but those numbers need to look a lot more like his 2017 numbers than his 2018 numbers. Luckily, Maimaron could be the most talented QB in the league, or most talented player in the league for that matter, he just needs to prove it.

Defensive MVP: CB Jake Kastenhuber ‘21

Kastenhuber makes the move over to cornerback this season after spending his first two patrolling the secondary as a safety. Williams graduated both of its starting corners last year, and the fact that they felt the need to move a two-year starter over to fill a need speaks to their lack of confidence in being able to find other CBs on the roster. Hopefully it is a seamless transition for Kastenhuber because the Ephs have struggled with locking down the top wide receivers around the league in recent years, and their lack of depth on the defensive line means they cannot afford to have any holes elsewhere.

Biggest Game: September 14th @ Middlebury

This is an absolute must win for both teams, and I would imagine they know that. But especially for the Ephs with the way their schedule is so backloaded. I’m sure most people are aware and will be made more aware as the season progresses, but for those who don’t know, Williams, Amherst, Wesleyan, and Trinity all play each other in the last 3 weeks of the season. If any of those teams have serious championship aspirations, they better plan on showing up for their Week 7 matchup with an unblemished 6-0 record. Beating Middlebury on the road Week 1 and defending home turf against Tufts the following week is certainly doable for Williams, who really could be 6-0 when that last stretch rolls around. It all starts on Saturday.

Everything Else:

It was a weird 2018 season for Williams, which makes forecasting this season pretty tough. On one hand, they were the only team to beat Trinity last year. On the other hand, they went 1-4 in their final 5 games, a combination of catching the injury bug and a touch of complacency following their big win against the eventual champs. The good news is that they return all but 6 of their points, and their 8 leading tacklers. On paper, they should be poised to take a huge leap forward. But the bad news is that they do not appear to have improved their weaknesses from last season—namely the defensive line, cornerbacks, and the ability to stay healthy. The front 3 is still largely up for grabs, as is one of the starting CB spots, and they already lost their expected starting RT, freshman John Freeman, for the year.

WR Frank Stola ’21 evades a Middlebury tackler during a 2018 game

So, one of two things (preferably both) needs to happen. The first is that the studs they have been able to rely on for 2 or 3 years now need to really carry this team—Maimaron, all-league WR Frank Stola ’21, and their arguably league-best linebacking core, led by all-league juniors Jarrett Wesner and TJ Rothmann. These guys need to ball out and stay healthy. The other thing is that guys whose names we don’t know yet need to have breakthrough seasons. The overwhelming individual talent in the junior class across the board for Coach Mark Raymond has made it tough for other guys, namely in the sophomore and senior classes, to find playing time, but injuries and graduation have finally opened some holes up.

This team is one of the best in the league, without a doubt. They just need a little bit more help if they hope to achieve what they really want to achieve. This might not be the year yet, but then again, they are arguably the favorite to win each of their first 7 games, if they ever get over their mental block against Wesleyan. Show up 7-0, give Trinity a run for their money in Week 8, and defend their home turf against Amherst in the finale? Maybe go 8-1 and see what happens? Crazier things have happened.

Sophomore Slump? Williams College Season Preview

Coach Raymond and the Ephs shocked everybody in 2017, but can they improve?

Sophomore Slump? Williams College Season Preview

2017 Record: 6-3

NBN Projected 2018 Record: 5-4

Projected Starters:

Offense (8 Returners*):

QB: Bobby Maimaron ‘21*

RB: TJ Dozier ‘21

FB: Kyle Horihan ‘20

WR: Frank Stola ‘21*

WR: Justin Nelson ‘21*

WR: Rashad Morrison ‘21

TE: Justin Burke ‘21*

LT: Jeremy Subjinski ‘20*

LG: Mike Ludwig ‘20*

C: Jeff MacArthur ‘20

RG: Pat Watson ‘21*

RT: Karsten Salveson ‘19*

Defense (9 Returners*):

DL: Jameson DeMarco ‘19*

DL: Brendan Rosseau

DL: Oscar Unobskey

OLB/DE: Austin Thomas ‘19*

ILB: TJ Rothmann ‘21*

ILB: Jarrett Wesner ‘21*

OLB: Luke Apuzzi ‘20*

CB: Amhyr Barber ‘19*

CB: Des Butler ‘19*

FS: Ben Anthony ‘20*

SS: Jake Kastenhuber ‘21*

Special Teams (2 Returning):

K: Min Kyu Park ‘21*

P: TBD

KR/PR: Frank Stola ‘21*

Offensive MVP:

Justin Nelson ’21

WR Justin Nelson ‘21

In this offense there are certainly a lot of options with this choice, but I’m going to go with the other Sophomore WR at Williams. Everyone knows about Frank Stola ’21, and for good reason, but Nelson has a chance to be the guy who takes this offense and this team to the next level. His freshman year looked like a typical freshman year—flashes of brilliance in the form of 6 catches and 125 yards, including a 76-yard TD vs. Hamilton—and games against Tufts and Amherst in which he failed to register a catch. Stola is still going to be their top big play threat but Nelson has the most unique skillset to be a target all over the field. He can catch it short and take it 76 to the house like he did against Hamilton, he can work the 10-15 yard routes that Coach Raymond loves in his offense, and he also might possess the most raw speed in the entire league. Williams’ running game looks to be their weakness offensively, but Nelson’s ability to turn short plays into big plays could make up for that.

Defensive MVP:

TJ Rothman ’21

LB TJ Rothmann ‘21

Is 83 tackles in just 8 games good? Because that’s what TJ Rothmann’s freshman year consisted of, good for 4th in the entire league. Despite returning 9 guys on defense, the two vacancies are up front on the line. All League NT Chris Hattar ’18 is gone and so too is Sam Gowen ’19, a fellow defensive lineman with a couple of years of starting experience. They might struggle at the line of scrimmage, especially early in the year. This team’s strength last year has been its run defense, and I expect that to continue, but it is going to be contingent upon Rothmann and the rest of the linebacking core stepping up and making a lot of tackles in the box. He has a legitimate chance to lead the NESCAC in tackles, and I expect him to be in the top 3 regardless. Ask anyone around the team and they’ll tell you that Rothmann is the most talented player on the team. He’s going to need to play like it if they want to continue to grow as an elite run-stopping unit.

Williams struggled to get anything going against Trinity in 2017.

Biggest Game: 9/29 vs. Trinity

Ironically enough, despite starting the season 4-1, it was the Ephs’ 17-9 loss in Week 3 @ Trinity that was arguably their most impressive performance. They lost a one score game on the road to the reigning undefeated league champions, and at no point did it seem like they couldn’t hang. But when the Bantams come to Williamstown this year on the last Saturday in September, it might as well be an elimination game. Both teams should be 2-0, and if you’re Williams, winning this game could mean starting the season 5-0 if they can get through Middlebury. But this league is Trinity’s until proven otherwise, regardless of who’s returning and who isn’t, and if the Ephs are the real deal this will be their chance to show it.

The Eph squad is young and has energy, but they need to bring the heat to replicate 2017.

Summary: What a difference a year makes, right? A year ago, this team was hoping to get on the board with a win in what felt like a huge game against fellow 0-8 Bowdoin. Now, it’s championship or bust in Williamstown. This team, on paper, has all the talent it needs to win the NESCAC. The offense has no shortage of weapons in 2017 ROY QB Bobby Maimaron ’21, WRs Frank Stola and Justin Nelson ’21, and swiss army knife WR Rashad Morrison ’21. The defense looks primed to be a top three unit in the league again, led by one of the best two linebacking groups in the NESCAC. It feels crazy to say but this team is returning 17 starters and yet I can’t get past the potential shortage up front on the defensive line. Whatever pairing gets rolled out there with DeMarco is going to be undersized and the weak link of a defense that relies heavily on being able to stop the run. Luckily, opening with Bowdoin and Colby should give them time to iron out the kinks. Other than that, any problem this team is going to have is going to be mental. Are the Ephs ready to take that next step and be a true championship contender, where every week is either spent dodging an upset bid or going toe-to-toe with another ring-chasing team? Last year, they were the happy-go-lucky group of upstarts who swung big and toppled a couple of giants. This year, can they be the last ones standing?

Karp’s Projected Record: 6-3