And Then There Were Four: Tufts vs. Trinity Semifinal Preview

#1 Tufts (19-6, 8-2) vs. #4 Trinity (17-8, 6-4), 5pm, Medford, MA

Overview

Tufts heads into this match off the heels of a comfortable 83-66 quarterfinal victory over Hamilton that saw four starters reach double figures. Led by veteran guard Eric Savage’s 20 points, the Jumbos blazed out of the gate with a 14-3 run to start the game and never looked back, knocking down 58% of their shots in the process. The regular season NESCAC champions put together as well-rounded of a first half performance as they have had all season (despite turning the ball over eleven times), shooting 64% from the field and stifling the opposition to the tune of just 32.3% and 2-14 from behind the arc. Keeping their foot on the gas, the Jumbos extended their lead as far as 24 points, taking a commanding 64-40 lead with twelve minutes remaining.

Joe Bell ’20 (Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

The Bantams have had quite the puzzling season, needing overtime to defeat lowly Conn College while beating the likes of Middlebury, Williams and Amherst to claim the tournament’s fourth seed. Despite having the seeding advantage over the Panthers, not many people would have expected Trinity to take down the nation’s 19th-ranked squad, and yet they not only did so for the second time this season, but the boys in blue and yellow did so in convincing fashion.  The offense has been quite sporadic, but the Bantams reached the century mark for the fifth time in 2020, becoming the first team to hang 100 on the Panthers this season. Shooting a sizzling 56.5% from the field, Trinity took a twelve-point lead with Colin Donovan’s jumper with just over three minutes remaining in the first half; from that point onward, the Bantams never let the lead dwindle below a dozen, splatting six threes and converting twenty of their twenty-seven field goals in the second half. 

Tufts X-Factor

Luke Rogers ‘21 (16.2 PPG, 11.9 REB/G, 56.8% FG, 45.9% FT)

(Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

Rogers is undoubtedly (and literally) the centerpiece of this squad, tallying eight double-doubles in ten NESCAC games thus far. The Player of the Year candidate led the ‘CAC with 11.9 rebounds per game and was fifth in scoring, averaging 16.2 points per contest.  He had what would be perceived by his standards as a quieter effort in the quarterfinals against Hamilton, finishing with fourteen points and six boards; however, there is no doubt that his size and skill set in the low post attracts a multitude of helpside defenders, giving the rest of the team open lanes to drive and shots to knock down. In their emphatic, 30-point victory over the Bantams back in early February, the junior tallied sixteen points (6-11 shooting) and six boards in just 23 minutes. Rogers and the rest of the Jumbos know this semifinal game won’t be as easy as their regular season meeting, and he’ll have to be on his A-game in order to walk out of Cousens Gymnasium with a win. One area he’ll have to improve on is his free throw percentage: over his past four games, Rogers is shooting an abysmal 32% from the charity stripe.  The big fella was not exactly phenomenal at shooting free throws to begin with, but Trinity will know this and use every chance they have to send Rogers to the line instead of giving up an easy bucket (or maybe even implement a hack-a-Rogers strategy). 

Trinity X-Factor

Colin Donovan ‘21 (14 PPG, 3.9 REB/G, 3.3 AST/G, 43.5% 3PT)

(Courtesy of Trinity Athletics)

Trinity is relatively well-rounded in the scoring department, but Donovan is one of the more pure shooters on this team and will certainly need to score aplenty Saturday afternoon in Medford. The junior rounds out the top-ten scorers in the NESCAC with 16.4 PPG and attempts around six threes per contest. He’s scored fifteen plus in each of his last four games, including dropping 24 on Amherst. Against Tufts in the previous matchup, however, Donovan was uncharacteristically shut down, failing to register a single point in seventeen minutes of action. We here at Nothing But NESCAC certainly don’t expect the same result this time around, but for Trinity to win this game, Donovan will have to take over this game and eclipse 20+ points. He’s certainly capable of doing so (reaching that mark on six occasions to date) and Donovan has had games where he can run up the numbers in the rebounding and assists department(s). Trinity will surely need him to have one of his best performances of the entire season in order to have a real shot at knocking off the Jumbos. 

Final Thoughts

This game is especially perplexing because of how volatile the Bantams have been this season. Just in February alone, Trinity has played six games and only one of them was decided by single digits. The other five? Three victories by an average of (approximately) 20 points, and two defeats by an average of 24.5 points.  The Jumbos entered conference play on the back end of two consecutive defeats, causing people to question if this team reached its peak too early in the season. Any such concerns were quelled after cruising past the Continentals, and now get the privilege of hosting a team that they embarrassed just a few weeks ago. At 17-8, Trinity probably needs a win against Tufts to join the conversation in securing an at-large bit to the NCAA Tournament and bolster their resume (although a sweep of Middlebury and a road win against Amherst looks pretty darn good). Tufts, despite dropping out of the top 25 rankings, should still be firmly locked into postseason play regardless of Saturday’s result. 

Despite both defenses ranking in the top three in terms of defensive field goal percentage within the NESCAC, I expect both offenses to have their fair share of points in this one.  The Jumbos know they have the size advantage with Rogers down low and should allow him to pound away and kick the ball out to open shooters. Furthermore, the Bantams allow over 81 PPG despite holding opponents to under 42% from the field, and a large part of that dilemma has to do with the fact that Trinity is ninth in terms of turnovers (13.4 per game). Nonetheless, the Bantams will be confident coming off such a strong performance against the NESCAC’s highest-ranked team in the national polls. In a tight first half where Trinity does just enough to keep the game within distance, give me Tufts to make a run in the last quarter of the game and hold off the boys from Hartford. 

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 86 – Trinity 74

Not Just a Football School: Trinity Men’s Basketball Preview 2019-2020

Trinity College Bantams 

2018-19 Record: 17-8 (6-4 NESCAC, lost in NESCAC quarterfinals)

2019-2020 Projected Record: 17-8 (5-5 NESCAC)

Key Losses: F Connor Merinder, F Jared Whitt, G Anthony Kelley 

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Christian Porydzy ‘20 (8.3 PPG, 2.6 APG, 35.2% 3PT) 

An experienced veteran guard, Porydzy will likely play both point guard and off ball this year. While he has handled the ball more in past years, he is Trinity’s best three point shooting threat in the starting lineup and can knock down the deep ball from NBA range. Despite not being overly tall or athletic, Porydzy can set up teammates for open shots and score in bunches with long range shooting. He finished last season on a high note, with three long balls each against Bates, Tufts, and Williams. Trinity should have more guys who can bring up the ball this year, allowing Porydzy to move without the ball and find himself open looks. If he can create his own shot and continue to knock down the three at a high clip, Trinity’s offense will take a big step forward this season. 

G: Colin Donovan ‘21 (5.9 PPG, 34.8% 3PT, 90% FT) 

Donovan is another guy Coach Cosgrove hopes will increase his scoring output this season as the Bantams try to take that next step in the NESCAC. He has gradually played more and more as his career has gone on and his experience will help greatly when freshmen come into the lineup. Similar to Porydzy, Donovan can play the point or 2 guard with his shooting ability. They are both strong spot up shooters and could both help their team immensely if they can find other ways to score or set up teammates. Donovan was the Bantams’ top scorer on Saturday in a close loss at UMass Dartmouth, but we hope his two late missed free throws were a fluke as he is normally one of the NESCAC’s best FT shooters. If he can give Trinity a consistent 8-10 points every night this season, their offense will make great strides. 

F: Nick Seretta ‘20 (9.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.5 APG)

Not many guys in this conference play harder than Seretta. He can frequently be seen getting in passing lanes, harassing ballhandlers, and getting on the hardwood for loose balls. At 6’3” and 207 lbs, he is the type of tough, athletic wing Coach Cosgrove loves to recruit. Seretta can look like an All-NESCAC player some nights, and the Bantams will need this to happen frequently if they want to make a deep run in this year’s tournament. He had 20 points against Hamilton and 16 points against Conn last season. He is again a workhorse again for Trinity this season, averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds a game. Similar to many of his teammates, however, Seretta will need to shoot more efficiently and pick up the scoring a little bit to take some pressure off the perennially strong defense. Expect him to get a bulk of the minutes this year (he played in every game last season) and be all over the stat sheet while also doing the dirty work on defense. 

F: Kyle Padmore ‘20 (9.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.0 APG) 

A captain and three year starter, Padmore is going to be a big factor this year in determining how Trinity’s season will go. Similar to Seretta, he is a long and athletic wing defender and will usually be matched up with the opponent’s top scorer in Cosgrove’s intense man to man defense. The same can be said here as for any of the other starters: a small jump in scoring production will go a long way towards the team’s success. Padmore has been one of the team’s top scorers for a few years now, but he needs to improve at the line (54.8% FT last season, 53.8% in 7 games this season) and avoid getting in foul trouble- he has been a constant piece in Coach Cosgrove’s rotation for a few years now. As one of three senior starters, Padmore and his classmates need to be more efficient on the offensive end if Trinity is going to take the next step and be more competitive with the NESCAC’s top teams.  

C: Donald Jorden, Jr ‘21 (11.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 61.1% FG) 

Jorden will likely draw a lot more attention in the post this season, as teams started to realize last year what he was capable of. At 6’6” and 200 pounds, Jorden used his athleticism and strong footwork to maneuver around defenders and dominate almost every one-on-one matchup under the basket. He is one of the league’s best rebounders and shot-blockers and became the Bantams’ best scoring option last season- he scored in double digits 18 times and started every game. This year, though, it will likely be tougher sledding. Jorden does not have 6’9” Jared Whitt to spell him for minutes, and he will likely be scouted much more seriously by NESCAC opponents whose bigs may be pushing 6’10”. He’s been looking good so far this season, averaging 11.1 RPG and shooting a phenomenal 66.1% from the field. Those are all-NESCAC numbers. If Jorden can continue to dominate the boards and get easy baskets and his teammates score at a higher clip, Trinity will overcome their injuries and make a splash in the conference this season. 

Everything Else:

The Bantams have had a decent start to this season, but they have lost a few close games already that may end up coming back to bite them when they are looking for an at-large bid to the tournament late in the season. They have won the games they’re supposed to and their scoring can push triple digits on some nights, but their lack of ability to score in the clutch has hurt them in close games so far this season. We know that any James Cosgrove Trinity team will defend the ball voraciously and constantly be in passing lanes, but each of the starters will need to contribute a few more points per game for this team to compete with the NESCAC’s best. They ended last season on fire in conference play, winning their last four regular season games before losing a competitive battle on the road in the quarterfinals (it seemed almost unfair that they went from out of the playoffs all the way to the 5 seed only to run into Williams).

Being one of many NESCAC teams that have an at-large national tournament bid in their sights, the Bantams would love to go on a similar hot streak at some point this season to separate themselves from the middle of the conference make their case for a bid. Their defense led them to victory against the NESCAC’s weaker offensive teams, but their lack of a consistent top scorer was brutally evident in blowout losses to Amherst and Middlebury. While some of the starters have upped their scoring outputs from last season, Trinity would love to see a guy step up and average 15 a game to take some pressure off the defense. They unfortunately do not return as many of last year’s contributors as we originally thought, as Anthony Kelley ‘22 (buzzer beater to beat Colby last year) is not enrolled at the school this year and 6’9” Jared Whitt ‘22 tore his ACL in the preseason. This means that the non-starters who frequently see minutes in Cosgrove’s rotation- Joe Bell ‘20, Jadakis Brooks ‘20, Steven Lora ‘23 and DJ Smith ‘23- will be important in not only being fresh legs to come in and defend, but also in picking up the scoring.

Despite last season’s losses, this is still a veteran roster that should be excited about its freshman class and the losses its NESCAC foes have suffered. Coach James Cosgrove may be the league’s most intense coach and his players’ defensive energy reflects that attitude every game. While referees may dread games in the Coop due to his frequent disputes over calls, Cosgrove knows how to coach. Trinity has the NESCAC’s second best league record over the last five seasons. This statistic will look a lot better if they can add a deep run in the tournament and gain an at-large bid to the national bracket this winter. To make a bigger dent against the conference’s perennial powerhouses, the Bantams will need to be better at the free throw line and on the offensive end in general.

Stock Report: Championship Weekend

Stock Up:

Can Gilmour bring it home on his own court for the Conts this weekend?

Hamilton’s Chances at a Title

Last week the Continentals were able to take care of business on their home court against the 7-seeded Colby Mules. While this may not seem that surprising, as the Continentals were heavy favorites, it was only a few weeks ago when the Mules stormed into Hamilton territory and stole a game right out from under their noses. The Mules were able to keep it close, but lightning did not strike twice for them. Hamilton played a clean, team game in which all 5 starters were able to amass double digit scoring. Kena Gilmour lead the way for the Continentals, putting up 19 points which includes a perfect 5/5 from downtown. Overall this team played as a cohesive unit, which should allow them to make an even bigger playoff push. Another advantage that Hamilton now possesses is that they now have home court advantage for the remainder of the playoffs. While other teams have to take the long ride to upstate New York, Hamilton can sit back and relax and wait for the competition to come to them.

Everybody loves an upset.

UMBC… I mean Tufts

After sneaking their way into the playoffs over Bowdoin, the Tufts Jumbos are here to stay. Obviously the story of the weekend was #1 Midd going down on their homecourt to a team they had no business losing to. The Panthers did not look like their usual selves all game, but this section isn’t about bashing Midd, it is about celebrating the underdog. Everyone loves an underdog, and Tufts usually doesn’t get to feel that love. See the reason is that Tufts is never the underdog is because they have more than twice as many students as the rest of the NESCACs. When you have that many enrollment spots, it can be much easier to compete. This year though, their basketball program is flipping that narrative on its head. It’s underdog Tufts taking on all the big bad schools like Hamilton, Amherst and Williams. With the #1 seed out of the way who says they can’t make a run?

Stock Down:

The State of Connecticut

After Wesleyan and Trinity exit the tourney in the first round with losses to Amherst and Williams, respectively, all 3 of the Connecticut NESCACs have been eliminated. The first Connecticut elimination was the earliest in all the NESCAC when Conn finished their season still searching for a conference win. It was a tough season all year long for the Camels but they have another year of rebuilding to look forwards to next year. Trinity proved themselves to be a playoff-quality team as the season progresses but they were still not able to finish the job against a very well organized Williams team. Joe Bell had a great performance for the Bantams off the bench, leading Trinity with 17 points, but the skill gap between the two teams was still too much to overcome. Connecticut’s best chance had to be Wesleyan. They had been ranked at multiple points throughout the season and really looked as if they could bang with the big dogs when push comes to shove. They dropped down to the 6-seed entering postseason play and were not able to top 3-seed Amherst. It was a disappointing year overall for the Connecticut NESCACs but now they can sit back, relax and join their buddies up in Maine as they watch Massachusetts and New York bang it out for a championship.

CACs in the NCAAs

The chances for five NCAA berths are gone, but will the NESCAC get four?

At one point or another this season it seemed as if it were possible to have up to 5 NESCACs make the tournament. As the playoff picture winds down, that number is getting smaller and smaller. First with the givens: from day 1 of the season it was pretty clear that Hamilton and Williams will be in the tournament no matter what. They were slated very high in the top-25 to start the season and while they are not as highly ranked as they have been at the moment, even without a championship I would be in disbelief if these two are not at-large selections. Amherst lies just behind Williams and Hamilton in stature. They were first able to break the top-25 mark in just week 2 of the season. Since that they have bounced in and out of the top-25 but find themselves all the way up at #11, right behind Hamilton, in the latest poll. It wasn’t as obvious throughout the season that this squad would be able to hang with the the Continentals and Ephs but they have more than proven themselves at this point as a lock for NCAAs. Next we come to Midd who is very much “on the bubble” of making the tournament. They had everything going for them. They jumped into the top-25 right at the end of the season after taking the CAC by storm, earning them a 1-seed in the NESCAC tourney. If Midd had made it even to the semis and lost to a ranked team, I believe that they would’ve had great chances to crack into the NCAA tourney. Unfortunately this is not what happened. Midd blew it to the 8-seed on their home court for what must have been quite the embarrassing upset. I do, however, still believe that the odds favor the Panthers to sneak in to the tournament as the twitter account “D3bubble,” researching D3 bracketology, named the Panthers as a “definite lock” entering the NESCAC tournament.

Trinity College Bantams 2019 Basketball Season Preview

Trinity College Bantams

2017-2018 Record: 15-10 (4-6 NESCAC), lost in NESCAC Quarterfinals

2018-2019 Projected Record: 13-11 (2-8 NESCAC) 

Key Losses:

G Eric Gendron ’18 (11.7PPG, 4.2REB/G, 3.2AST/G)

G Jeremy Arthur ’19 (11.3PPG, 4.1REB/G, 43.1% FG)

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Christian Porydzy ’20 (8.9PPG, 3.6REB/G, 3.4AST/G)

Porydzy is the facilitator for this squad. He shares the ball willingly, he’s athletic enough to beat defenders off the dribble, and his jump shot is good enough that opposing teams have no choice but to respect it. Because Porydzy is such a solid all around player, he’ll have to do pretty much everything a littlebit better for Trinity to see more success this season. There’s no doubt that he’ll need to have an uptick in scoring given all the scoring they lost from last year, but the Bantams are also losing a lot of rebounding, which is an area that Porydzy excels in despite being a smaller guard. They also suffer the loss of the second team leader in assists, so Porydzy will have to pick up some of the slack from there as well. Through 7 games this season, we aren’t seeing Porydzy improve his production from last year, so keep an eye on the performance by the point guard in Hartford.

G: Nick Seretta ’20 (7.5PPG, 2.8REB/G)

One of the biggest issues last season and so far this season for the Bantams is the lack of a playmaker. They need a guy who wants the ball in his hands at the end of a close game and can execute in those big spots. A guy who consistently puts up 15 points and grabs 6-8 rebounds per game. Seretta should be that guy. He’s got the size and athleticism to be one of the league’s premier players, yet his stats don’t reflect that at all. In fact, he hasn’t really seen an improvement in his numbers at all, despite Trinity losing their top two scorers and two of their top rebounders from last season. In their two losses thus far, Seretta scored 16 points on 5-16 shooting including 1-7 from beyond the arc. He followed those two games by putting up a goose egg in 23 minutes in the two-point victory over Southern Vermont. Seretta needs to be better moving forward because Trinity will only be able to go as high as he can take them.

G: Kyle Padmore ’20 (5.3PPG, 2.3REB/G, 52.6% FG)

Padmore is another guy who could fill the “best player” role simply based on his physical attributes. He has height and length, and he is a very efficient scorer as you can see based on his 52.6% field goal percentage from last season. In the early going he has already doubled his scoring average as well as largely increasing his rebounding and assist averages. This is exactly what the Bantams are hoping for from a guy who is seeing an increase in minutes. Because of his size he’ll likely be tasked with defending bigger guys, so it remains to be seen if he can bang around with some of the larger bodies that he’ll see come conference play. He’s still figuring out how to take a bigger role, but it appears Padmore is up for the challenge at a time when Trinity really needs it.

F: Donald Jorden, Jr. ’21 (4.2PPG, 4.4REB/G, 67.9% FG)

The Tampa, Florida native is off to an incredibly efficient start in his sophomore campaign. He, too, has nearly doubled his scoring and rebounding averages through 7 games and continues to shoot an eye-popping percentage from the field. Granted he’s playing over twice the amount of minutes he was playing last season, so the numbers make sense. Regardless, this kid is playing really good basketball and he is doing everything that Coach Cosgrove could ask. Jorden will face a similar challenge to Padmore in that he’s a bit undersized for the “4” position, but his length and athleticism should surely close the gap in terms of height and weight. He should pose a number of matchup problems, so look for Jorden to continue the outstanding pace he is setting for himself.

F: Connor Merinder ’19 (5.5PPG, 4.7REB/G, 49.6% FG)

Merinder represents really the only big body that Trinity puts on the court in the starting five. His rebounding and scoring numbers are respectable, but his main duty is defending opposing bigs and doing what he can to eliminate the size disparity between the Bantams and most other NESCAC starting lineups. Nearly every team at this point has one or two guys between 6’7” and 6’10” that act as a true center, like Matt Karpowicz of Williams or Luke Rogers of Tufts. What I like about Merinder is that although he doesn’t do a ton of scoring, he shoots a high percentage which will at least force other teams to respect the inside game enough to open up options for other guys. Merinder isn’t going to be the most standout player on the roster, but his value is unmatched and he’ll do his best to compete with some of the other bigs around the league.

Everything Else

This season will certainly be an interesting one for the Bantams, who lost two of their top players from last year. The main focus for them will be on the offensive end where they struggled at times last season. In five of their ten losses they failed to even reach 60 points, and they ended they year 3rdto last in the conference with 71.1 points per game. It would appear that the main reason for this was that shots just weren’t falling. Trinity plays good defense and don’t turn the ball over very much, but their field goal percentage was middle of the pack and their 3-point shooting percentage was only two spots away from dead last in the league. This second stat is especially concerning given that their lineup is very guard-heavy. These guys won’t be able to compete very much if they aren’t hitting shots from the outside, because we know their strength is not in the paint.

Colin Donovan ’21 is going to be one of the only weapons off the bench this year

Another key focus for Trinity this year is depth. So far this season the Bantams have not looked particularly deep, and it seems as though their rotation really just consists of 7 guys. They like to bring Joe Bell ’20 and Colin Donovan ’21 off the bench, the latter of the two being a solid scoring threat. Again the issue of size resurfaces. Neither of those two role players off the bench is over 6’3” so it’ll be a challenge for Trinity to match the size of some of the stronger teams in the conference. With this being the case, they simply need to be hitting more shots. Hopefully Coach Cosgrove has stolen a page out of Tom Izzo’s book, because with their lack of size, they need to be taking and making better shots. If they can spread the floor, speed up the pace of the game, and be a bit more efficient in scoring then they have a real shot at stealing a few wins. If they aren’t able to do these things, it’ll be a very long year in Hartford.