Better Late Than Never: Power Rankings 2/8

(3) 1. #21 Tufts (16-4, 6-0)

Last week: W 85-73 vs. Bowdoin, W 80-67 vs. Colby
This week: @ Trinity, @ Conn

This one shouldn’t be much of a surprise- the Jumbos cemented themselves as the current big dog of the NESCAC after handing Colby their first loss of the season. They have been getting it done with the play of their big man Luke Rogers ’21, who had 19 and 12 against Colby on Saturday, and Eric Savage ’20, who had a ridiculous stat line the night before against Bowdoin- 13-17 from the field and 5-5 from deep to finish with 35 points. Sophomore Tyler Aronson ’22 is another offensive talent that needs to be addressed in any opponent’s defensive gameplan. As Cam mentioned in this week’s stock report, Tufts guarded Colby probably better than any team has all season. Starters Noah Tyson ’22, Matt Hanna ’21, and Sam Jefferson ’20 combined for 17 points- a stat that made it awfully tough for Colby to win. With Tufts being the only Boston-area NESCAC and also having the largest enrollment, many of the recruiting pieces are there. We could be witnessing the start of a dynasty with this team. They visit a tough Trinity team Friday night in what should be a good one. 

(1) 2. #9 Colby (18-1, 6-1)

Last week: W 101-84 @ Bates, L 80-67 @ Tufts
This week: vs. Hamilton, vs. Amherst

The Mules finally drop out of the top spot in our rankings after their hot shooting was dampened by Tufts. A big reason for the loss was Tufts’ defensive gameplan- they did not allow Sam Jefferson ’20 to even take a shot in the first half, and he only finished with 3 points. He’s been their big scorer up to this point, so he’ll have to learn to adjust and find other shooters when teams focus on him. Tufts also took advantage of Colby’s lack of size and out-rebounded them by 20, in large part thanks to Luke Rogers ’21. The good news for the Mules is that they finish their conference slate with four straight home games. There’s no doubt that they can win all four, but Tufts showed that a team with a strong big man and a good defensive gameplan can give Colby major problems. 

(7) 3. Trinity (14-6, 4-2)

Last week: W 82-76 vs. Middlebury, W 73-60 vs. Williams
This week: vs. Tufts, vs. Bates

Trin’s upperclassmen-laden rotation is finally starting to play to potential, which is a scary thought for everyone else in the conference. Last weekend, Trinity took down Middlebury and Williams- two teams that blew them out just last season. Between Donald Jorden’s dominance on the boards, Colin Donovan’s elite shooting, and Kyle Padmore ’20 being the frontrunner for DPOY, all the pieces we know the Bantams have are starting to come together. In their past three games, Donovan shot 10-19 from deep, and as Cam mentioned, Jorden has been impossible to box out- 15.6 rebounds per game! This has helped the Bantams’ offense keep up with their traditionally physical and aggressive defense that gave Williams’ inexperienced guards fits. They have two more opportunities to defend their home court this week, as they host an equally hot Tufts team followed by Bates. 

(4) 4. Amherst (14-6, 4-2)

Last week: W 75-53 vs. Wesleyan
This week: @ Bowdoin, @ Colby

The Mammoths (and Middlebury too, for that matter) are knocking hard at the 3 spot, but they’ll be at 4 for now just because their wins last weekend didn’t come against opponents that were as strong as Trinity’s. They looked good against Wesleyan shooting 15-27 from three, but their two losses to Williams hurt their ranking and I know they hurt the hearts of Mammoth faithful even more. Amherst hasn’t really found their go-to guy yet, but we know from their past few conference games that guys like Garrett Day ’21, Grant Robinson ’21 and Fru Che ’21 can give you buckets on any given night. With Bowdoin and Conn College being two of Amherst’s last few games, they’ll likely still salvage a solid NESCAC record despite not being the alpha of the conference as they often are. We’re not sure what their postseason will look like quite yet, but we do know that the Mammoths have been a power for too long to be counted out. 

(2) 5. #13 Middlebury (18-3, 4-3)

Last week: L 82-76 @ Trinity, W 77-61 @ Conn
This week: @ Wesleyan

The Panthers didn’t have a great road trip to Connecticut, taking a loss to Trinity on Friday night and then only being up by one against Conn College before pulling away to win by 16 the next day. Earlier in the year, it wouldn’t have been fathomable for the latter matchup to be that close at all, but Midd has definitely fallen back towards the pack after a hot start. One bright spot for the Panthers has been Tommy Eastman ’21, who went 9-14 from the floor for 22 points with 12 rebounds against Trinity followed by 20 more the next day. Outside of Eastman, the shooting needs to improve for Midd to make a deep postseason run and justify their national ranking. Going a combined 8-43 from deep on the weekend for a team with that much talent is inexcusable. Every team has bad shooting nights sometimes and Midd will likely rebound in a big way at some point over their last three conference games, but there’s got to be a sense of urgency moving forward if the Panthers want a shot at a national bid. 

(8) 6. Williams (10-11, 3-4)

Last week: W 71-62 @ Conn, L 73-60 @ Trinity
This week: @ Wesleyan

The road continues to be rocky for the Ephs. Their NESCAC slate over the weekend included a single-digit (!!) win over Conn, and a loss to Trinity in which the Bantams put the game away early in the second half. Additionally, they suffered a loss this Monday to Yeshiva…a school I had to Google because I had honestly never heard of it before. The story continues to be that the younger guards cannot consistently match the strong inside play of Matt Karpowicz ’20. We know that guys like Cole Prowitt-Smith ’23 and Jovan Jones ’22 can play, but they just don’t seem to be playing with the cohesiveness of last year’s veteran unit. Karpowicz held his own against Donald Jorden in Hartford with 15 and 12, but the team’s 17 turnovers and 5-24 three-point shooting showed both the strength of Trinity’s defense and the inexperience of the Ephs. Going 2 for 2 against Amherst on the year always feels good, but Williams could really use a win on Friday against Wesleyan to solidify their playoff positioning. 

(5) 7. Hamilton (14-6, 2-4)

Last week: W 78-67 vs. Wesleyan
This week: @ Colby, @ Bowdoin

The 7-9 spots are just as messy as the 3-6. Hamilton gets the 7 this week, but that’s not to say that a lot more wasn’t expected out of them coming into this season. We all know how good Kena Gilmour ’20 is, but it’s his senior year so what that means is that teams have finally started to do a better job gameplanning for him. He’s still been putting the ball in the basket, but not at the rate that earned him Player of the Year last season. We have yet to see one of his teammates step up and become that consistent second scoring option when Gilmour is being double teamed or smothered by a strong defender. Hamilton also can’t afford any more random defensive lapses like the one they had on January 18, when they gave up 98 points to Bates. The Continentals are making the long trip to Maine this weekend to take on Bowdoin and Colby, and they’re in trouble if they don’t come back having won at least one of those games. 

(9) 8. Wesleyan (13-7, 2-4)

Last week: L 75-53 @ Amherst, L 78-67 @ Hamilton
This week: vs. Williams, vs. Middlebury

Sorry to Cardinals fans, but this team just has not been very exciting since Austin Hutcherson transferred to Illinois. It has to be disheartening to lose by 20 in your conference game against Little Three foe Amherst when you beat them earlier in the season. They followed that game up with a tough loss to a very beatable Hamilton team. Like Amherst, Wes is a team still kind of looking to find their identity. They’ve got guys like Antone Walker ’21 and Jordan James ’20 who will give you 10 or 15 a game, but that just hasn’t been enough for the Cardinals to be a force. The Cards have a tough four-game stretch to end the season, with Williams and Middlebury at home this weekend and a road trip to Maine with Colby and Bowdoin to finish out. My prediction is that their one-point loss to Bates earlier this year will come back to haunt them come postseason play. 

(10) 9. Bowdoin (7-13, 2-5)

Last week: L 85-73 @ Tufts, W 78-73 @ Bates
This week: vs. Amherst, vs. Hamilton

Bowdoin’s win last week over Bates may not be turning any heads at the top of the league, but it vaulted them from a clear second-to-last rank into the muddled pack of teams battling for the final seeds. They have a shot at getting one of these last spots, but it will be tough with them having played one more game than many of the teams they’re battling. Their best hope will be if David Reynolds ’20 and Sam Grad ’20 both go off in the same game…for a few games. Keep an eye on their games against Hamilton and Wesleyan to see how the lower seeds will sort themselves out. 

(6) 10. Bates (10-9, 2-4) 

Last week: L 101-84 vs. Colby, L 78-73 vs. Bowdoin
This week: @ Conn, @ Trinity

The Bobcats are being placed below their other two-win counterparts because it was a surprise that Bowdoin beat anyone besides Conn in the conference, but they made it happen against Bates. You would think this team has another run of good basketball left in them due to their abundance of seniors, but we have not seen them put together a consistent stretch of winning this season. We know they can put up big points every now and then (98 against Hamilton), but the loss to Bowdoin has has to hurt. The insult to injury for the Bobcats is that they finish their conference slate with five away games. Bates will likely be battling for one of the last few playoff spots.

(11) 11. Conn College (4-16, 0-6)

Last week: L 71-62 vs. Williams, L 77-61 vs. Middlebury
This week: vs. Bates, vs. Tufts

While Conn may still be searching for that ever-so-elusive conference win, they have at least been competitive lately. Things continued to look up after their heartbreaking double overtime loss to Trinity- the Camels only lost by 9 to Williams and were within one of Middlebury at halftime. Trust the process. At this point, I wouldn’t totally count out the possibility of a win in their last three games. I’m not saying it’s likely, but Conn’s last few performances have given me faith. Freshman Ben McPherron ’23 has been a player to watch, averaging 12.1 ppg on the season. A few more strong showings will cool down coach Tim Sweeney’s seat a bit once the season concludes. 

A Mix of Rivalry Week and Marquee Matchups: 1/25 Weekend Preview

Amherst (11-6, 2-2) vs. Hamilton (12-5, 1-3), 3pm, Amherst, MA

Both of these teams really need a win to get back on track. Amherst followed up a nice road win against Bates by getting smacked in the mouth by Tufts, then proceeded to drop another game to Williams to complete the season sweep (albeit this was the non-conference tilt). Hamilton has plummeted towards the bottom of the standings with a dismal 1-3 conference record, and Kena Gilmour ‘20 is getting absolutely no help from the rest of his starters. The Bobcats did a great job limiting Gilmour to just fifteen points, but the rest of the starters combined to shoot 28%. What’s even more alarming for the Continentals is that they let the Bobcats splat eleven threes – the night prior, Amherst held the ‘Cats to just one triple. That combination of lackluster defense and inconsistent offensive production is, quite simply, not good enough to beat a team like Amherst. As long as Eric Sellew ‘20, Fru Che ‘21, and company are patient on offense and knock down their open looks, the Mammoths will have no problem getting by the Continentals. 

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83, Hamilton 70

Conn College (3-12, 0-3) vs. Trinity (11-6, 1-2), 3pm, New London, CT

Two words to describe Trinity’s performance against Wesleyan last weekend: not good. The Bantams shot just 33.3% from the field, including a head-scratching 10-30 from two. Conversely, Wesleyan got just about anything they wanted from inside the arc. The good news for the Trin faithful is that they essentially have a bye week against Conn, who just got absolutely obliterated 98-59 against the Cardinals. Although everything is falling apart for the Camels, the defense is especially a problem as they’ve now allowed at least 83 points in each of their three conference games. Trinity seems to have some offensive woes, but it would take an especially poor shooting day (think in the 20’s) for Trinity to drop this one. I’ve got Donald Jorden ‘21 tallying a double-double as Trinity rolls by double digits. 

Writer’s Pick: Trinity 85, Conn 64

Bowdoin (5-10, 1-3) vs. #5 Colby (16-0, 4-0), 3pm, Brunswick, ME

Just like Trin and Conn, this inter-state bout looks like it won’t be very close.  Colby has asserted themselves as the alpha dog in the NESCAC after their road victories against Middlebury and Williams. The most important stat from those two games is that they only turned the ball over a combined 19 times, signaling that this group feels no pressure in some of the more hostile environments in the conference. Sam Jefferson ‘20 has to be considered the MVP of the league by a considerable margin at this point, and it helps to have three alternate (and equally as talented) scoring options in Matt Hanna ‘21 (14.8 PPG, 4.1 AST/G), Alex Dorion ‘20 (14.1 PPG) and Noah Tyson ‘22 (12.4 PPG, 8.7 REB/G). What’s more, they annihilated Bowdoin by 46!!! earlier this season. In the second half alone against the Polar Bears, Colby exploded for 67 points and knocked down eleven threes. While it won’t be that much of a route this time around, expect the Mules to blow their rivals out of the water by at least twenty. 

Writer’s Pick: Colby 92, Bowdoin 68

#12 Middlebury (16-2, 2-2) vs. Williams (9-8. 2-2), 3pm, Middlebury, VT 

While Tufts and Bates could be viewed as the game of the week, I’m casting my vote for this particular matchup due to the unfamiliarity in the standings for both teams. Both Williams and Middlebury sit at .500 in conference play, and a loss would drop either team near that #8 seed cut-off for the conference tournament. Both these teams will almost certainly make the tournament when it’s all said and done, but the situation still presents an intriguing scenario. The Panthers had to have a quick turnaround after dropping a tough home matchup against the Mules, and they successfully did so by throttling the Polar Bears 93-71. Five Middlebury players hit double figures, led by Max Bosco ‘21 and Tommy Eastman ‘21.  The defense is still a bit of a concern as the Polar Bears were able to hang around until the Panthers’ offense pulled away in the second half, but luckily for the Panthers, the Ephs isn’t known for their explosive offense. Williams likes to grind out games with a stout defense, and while it didn’t work against Colby, they held both Bowdoin and Amherst to 62 and 60 points, respectively. Jovan Jones ‘22 found his shooting touch with seventeen points, and Cole Prowitt-Smith ‘23 continued to impress with fourteen of his own. If this game was at Williams, I would consider looking into the upset; in the end, however, Middlebury was ranked as highly as number five in the national polls for a reason, and they are too talented drop this one at home. 

Writer’s Pick: Middlebury 75, Williams 66

#23 Tufts (13-3, 3-0) vs. Bates (9-6, 2-1), 3pm, Medford, MA

I honestly have no idea what to expect from this one.  Tufts continues to to keep pace with Colby as the last two remaining unbeaten teams in the ‘CAC, having just recently throttled Amherst by 18 in Medford.  Everyone is contributing – all five starters hit double digits against the Mammoths, and the Jumbos got an additional 17 bench points to cushion the win. Right now, Luke Rogers ‘21 is the best big man in the league, having eclipsed twenty points in each of his last four games (three of those were double-doubles).  The Bobcats’ best kept secret (although at this point I think the cat might be out of the bag) is freshman Omar Sarr ‘23. I’ve been raving about Sarr before conference play started, and the big man has become the best rim protector in the league. He’s averaging an absurd five blocks per game in conference play to go along with eleven points and eleven rebounds. He’s the most important player on the Bobcats, because without him, they lack a reliable shot blocker and rebound getter. Both teams have their fair share of shooters, but in the end I think Bates’ inconsistencies on the defensive end will allow Tufts to work inside and out well, pulling away late. The ‘Cats have won three in a row against the Jumbos, however, so a road victory wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Writer’s Pick: Tufts 88, Bates 81

Not as Easy as It Looks: Williams Men’s Basketball Preview 2019-2020

Williams College Ephs

2018-2019 Record: 23-7 (6-4 NESCAC), lost in semifinals of NESCAC Tournament; lost in Elite 8 of NCAA Tournament

2019-2020 Projected Record: 19-9 (6-4 NESCAC)

Key Losses: G Bobby Casey, F James Heskett, F Kyle Scadlock, F Marcus Soto, C Michael Kempton

Projected Starting Lineup:

G: Mickey Babek ’20 (3.2 PPG, 1.8 REB/G, 1.2 AST/G, 45% FG)

The Southern California native finds a spot in the starting lineup after pretty minimal action in his first three years. However, Babek did see time in all 30 games last season and got to play alongside some of the most talented Eph players in recent memory. Thrust into the starting point guard role this season, a lot more will be asked of him as a senior. Babek has the height and length to overmatch a good portion of opposing point guards, but his defense is a huge area of focus. The NESCAC has some of the most explosive guards in all of Division III and Babek will be asked to defend many of them for extended periods of time. He isn’t the type of guy who will be putting up 25 points every night but if he can minimize turnovers and play solid defense against some of the opposing team’s best players, it will keep Williams in just about every game this season.

G: Spencer Spivy ’22 (2.3 PPG, 0.8 REB/G, 45% FG, 4.2 MPG)

Spivy is the perfect example of a guy that likely would have played much more significant minutes last year if he was on any other team (besides maybe Hamilton). Unfortunately he was stuck behind Casey, Heskett, and Scadlock, so Spivy didn’t get quite as much action as he would have liked. Now he’s jumping right into the starting lineup where he’ll have quite a bit more asked of him. Spivy is a versatile scorer who can really knock it down from deep, but he can also surprise you with his court vision as well. Realistically, the Ephs are going to need Spivy to start scoring a lot. They lost a ton of production from last year and they don’t have an obvious scoring threat left in the backcourt, so it’s Spivy’s year to step up. The sophomore had a decorated high school career so we know he has it in him, but it remains to be seen if he’s ready to take a step up to the next level in Williamstown.

F: Henry Feinberg ’20 (6.5 PPG, 3.2 REB/G, 1.2 AST/G, 49% FG)

Feinberg is a role player if there ever was one. This guy’s stats have been alarmingly consistent from year to year, but never jaw-dropping. He was a starter last year on their stacked Elite 8 team so he clearly brings something to the table, but to the untrained eye it’s hard to tell exactly what. Feinberg is a big hustle guy and will surely be the first to dive on the floor for a loose ball, but not a lot of what he does will show up in the box score. He has a big frame and is asked to defend a wide range of different players, so it’s very beneficial for Coach App to have a guy that he can task with defending anyone from point guards to big men. With that being said, it’s hard to say what more Feinberg can do this year given that he doesn’t show up much on the offensive end. With the amount of experience Feinberg has, it seems as though his most positive contributions will be helping groom some of the younger guys and teach them the Williams basketball way.

F: Jovan Jones ’22 (1.4 PPG, 1.4 REB/G, 5.7 MPG)

Much like Spivy, Jones would have likely seen significant time on any other team last season, but he was playing behind a slew of star caliber players. Now it’s his time to shine because this guy has talent, size, and athleticism that is very hard to come by in the NESCAC. At 6’5”, 210, Jones could have found himself a spot on a low-Division I roster, but he opted for Williams and it should pay dividends. He has the strength to muscle past a lot of the guards that will be defending him, but the quickness to beat a bigger guy if that’s the way that teams go. Working on his jump shot will be key because Jones hasn’t proven that he can consistently knock down the 3-ball and he has been an absolute liability at the charity stripe through one and a half seasons thus far. Jones has the athletic ability to be one of the most impactful players in the league so keep an eye on his progression this year.

C: Matt Karpowicz ’20 (11.8 PPG, 6.1 REB/G, 1.7 AST/G, 1.4 BLK/G, 61% FG)

Death, taxes, and Matt Karpowicz. It really just seems like we can’t get rid of this guy. When he’s not spending his time writing some terrific NbN articles, Karp is busy hauling down rebounds and posterizing opposing players. The 12th-year senior has played in literally every single game since his freshman campaign and this guy has been dominant. Karpowicz is shooting a career 61.6% from the field and has steadily increased his scoring numbers each season. He stands at 6’8” and 250lbs, and his impressive footwork and low-post ability make him one of the best true centers in the NESCAC. Williams has always had a very tall roster so Karp hasn’t needed to rebound as much as he’s capable of, but this year he’ll have to take a small step up in that area. The good news is it appears that he’s already doing that, as he posted a 29-point, 20-rebound double double in their most recent game against Springfield. The Ephs haven’t needed him to play up to his potential so far in his career, but this year he’s the star. This year the Ephs will only be able to go as high as Karpowicz can take them.

Everything Else:

Given their history, a 4-3 start isn’t exactly where Williams wanted to be at this point in the season. The reason for the slow start, however, is because the Ephs lost by far more production from last year than anyone else in the league. Graduating Casey, Heskett, Scadlock, Kempton, and Soto means losing 55.7 points per game (out of 82.1), 22.9 rebounds per game (out of 40.5), 10.6 assists per game (out of 15.4), and 126.7 minutes per game (out of 200). That is insanity. Losing over 50% of your team’s production usually results in what is colloquially referred to as a “building year” but we all know that those don’t exist in Williamstown. As usual, Coach App has a hoard of capable recruits and underclassmen that are ready to go.

There’s no doubt that Cole Prowitt-Smith ’23 will have the biggest impact of any freshman this season. Prowitt-Smith gained the attention of an array of Ivy League and Patriot League schools, but ultimately chose Williams and has made an immediate impact. Already averaging 12 points and 4 rebounds per game, Prowitt-Smith has a surprising level of athleticism and can knock down shots from anywhere on the court. His ability to get to the rim and defend at a high level are already more developed than most guards in the league and he’s only a freshman. This guy is the NESCAC’s next superstar.

Nate Karren ’23 will provide some support for Matt Karpowicz ’20 down low, but he is still in the progress of refining his skill set. Fellow rookie Alex Stoddard ’23 is a dynamic scorer and has already found himself scoring in double figures on a few occasions so far this year. The backcourt duo of Michael Myers ’21 and Ryan Moon ’22 will see an increase in minutes as well, but they, too, are relatively unproven and Coach App will look for them to develop mightily over the course of the season. The Ephs will also largely benefit from the return of Marc Taylor ’21 who missed the end of last year and the start of this year with injury. Taylor is a 6’8”, 200lb wing who can score and defend with the best of them. He will add a huge boost in size and depth for Williams who could really use help with both at this point.

This year will be a very telling one for the Eph squad and Coach Kevin App who, for the first time in his tenure, lost 5 seniors to graduation, all of whom played significant minutes. During App’s first 5 years at the helm, he never graduated more than 3 players in a single year and usually only 1 or 2 was playing meaningful time. We know he’s a capable recruiter, but we’re going to learn a lot about App’s ability to develop players in a much shorter time span if he wants the Ephs to be as competitive as they typically are. I don’t see them falling to the bottom half of the conference, but the NESCAC is very competitive and Williams has had a target on their back for quite some time now. They have to be very careful because it’s easy to get hurt when you fall all the way from the top.