#7 Amherst (23-4, 7-3, Defeated Hamilton to Win NESCAC Championship)
Prior to the NESCAC Tournament, Amherst was in a very good position to snag a spot in the Big Dance. Their résumé included a 20-4 overall record, with a season sweep of Williams along with win at Middlebury. Instead of leaving it up to the committee, however, the Mammoths pulled off three straight, eventually defeating Hamilton en route to their 8th NESCAC Championship. They’re headed back to the NCAA Tournament after missing out for the first time since 2010 last season, and look poised to make a deep run.
The Mammoths went on a tear to end the regular season, winning nine of their past ten games. They finished ranked #7 in D3 polls, the highest ranking among NESCAC teams. Given its recent historical success in the NCAA tournament (19 appearances, 4 Final Fours, 2 National Championships all within the last 25 years), to not make the postseason tournament last season was a disappointment to say the least. With such a deep and talented squad that’s peaking at the right time, Amherst is ready to make a deep run in March.
How They Got Here:
On paper, Amherst did not have the most talented team in the NESCAC, nor would many have thought they would win a NESCAC Championship this season. They lost their top two scorers in Mike Riopel ‘18 (12.7 PPG) and Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (11.9 PPG), and while Grant Robinson ‘21 and Fru Che ‘21 averaged a combined 17 PPG as freshman, it was a tall task to ask these two to lead the Mammoths back to the postseason. Well, the duo exploded onto the scene in the 2018-2019 season, with Robinson in particular taking the bull by the horns, averaging 17.8 PPG and 5.5 REB/G and putting his name into consideration for NESCAC Player of the Year. Amherst’s offense was much better once conference play kick-started, as they had the second-highest field goal percentage in conference play along with the most rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game. Robinson and Che (12.3 PPG, including 17.3 PPG in his last six games), were two of nine members who logged at least 10 minutes per game, and six of those nine averaged at least 8.0 PPG. But for all the improvements on the offensive side, it’s the defense that paved the way for Amherst to become NESCAC Champions. They were the league’s second-best defense in points per game allowed, suffocated opponents by allowing a league-best 40% field goal percentage, and had by far the best rebounding margin (+9.9 per game) in the NESCAC. They say defense wins championships, and if the Mammoths carry their high caliber defense into the postseason, they will most certainly be a tough out for even the most offensively savvy squads.
How They Lose:
More often than not, Amherst gets into trouble when the games they play become high-scoring affairs. Two of their three losses in league play came when Colby and Hamilton scored over 80 points, and Amherst does not have enough consistency on offense to get into shootouts. I’d liken them to a Virginia-esque squad in the sense that they have players who can take over a game and put up points, but they have much more success when the defense grinds down opponents and they slow the pace of the game to their liking. Another thing those two losses had in common was both Colby and Hamilton shot plenty of free throws; Colby attempted a ridiculous 41 free throws (converting 33), while Hamilton made 17 of their 21 free throw attempts. Because it is so hard to repeatedly convert shots against Amherst’s defense, the best bet for opposing teams is to take the ball to the rack and get to the line as often as possible. Amherst is also a poor three point shooting team (31.6%) and does not generate a ton of assists (just 13.4 assists per game) so opposing defenses should look to pack the paint and force the Mammoths to beat them from beyond the arc.
The Competition
Rosemont Ravens (15-12, 8-4, Conference Champions)
The Ravens won the Colonial States Athletic Conference for the first time in program history, defeating #1 seed Cairn and earning an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. It’s Rosemont’s first NCAA Tournament appearance, but similar to Amherst, the Ravens got hot late and are currently on an eight-game winning streak. This squad brings a dangerous plethora of offensive weapons (even with the loss of Basil Thompson ‘19 (16.1 PPG) early in the season due to unknown reasons) to test Amherst’s resilient defense; three Ravens average double figures, led by Keith Blassingale ‘20 (19.1 PPG), who averaged a ridiculous 31.4 points per game in his last five contests including a 45 point performance in Rosemont’s 113-79 semi-final victory over Wilson College. 6’6’’ forward Jaylen Myers ‘19 is an excellent scoring option as well, nearly averaging a double-double with 15.6 PPG and 9.6 REB/G. The Ravens like to get out and score, averaging 82.0 PPG, shoot close to 47% from the field, and are excellent free throw shooters at 75.4%. The ability to score plus the great free throw shooting numbers point directly to a potential upset, however the Ravens play in a much weaker basketball conference than the NESCAC where defense seems optional (none of the teams in the conference allow less than 77 PPG). They also struggle to rebound the ball, something Amherst does exceptionally well. It’s possible Blassingale and Rosemont come out hot and give the Mammoths a scare, but Amherst should be able to settle in and take care of the Ravens.
University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (20-4, 12-4, finished second in Conference)
The runners up in the University Athletic Association Conference and #23 in the D3 polls snagged one of the 21 at large bids handed out by the NCAA Tournament committee. The UAA doesn’t have a postseason tournament, but Rochester lost to Emory on the final day of the regular season in what was a de-facto Championship game. Like Amherst, the Yellow Jackets are a very good defensive team; the allow just 66.4 points per game and force opponents to shoot just 40.8% from the field. On offense, they are led by the UAA Player of the Year in senior guard Ryan Clamage ‘19 (16.2 PPG, 6.6 REB/G), and Jacob Wittig ‘19 chips in with 10.6 PPG and neary five AST/G. They’re a much similar team to Amherst in respect to their defensive strength and uncertainty on offense, but head-to-head the Mammoths have the stronger offensive unit from top to bottom. They key will be limiting Clamage and keeping the Yellow Jackets out of the paint as they get most of their offensive from inside the arc in addition to their solid free throw percentage (73.3%).
Farmingdale State Rams (20-7, 16-4, Conference Champions)
Farmingdale State earned an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament via winning the Skyline Conference. The Rams were the number one seed headed into the tournament with an impressive 16-4 record in conference play, and have won ten consecutive games. This is a unit similar to Rosemont where they have the ability to put points on the board (85.2 PPG), but possess an average defense, allowing 75.2 PPG. Surprisingly, the Rams only shoot 45.7% as a team but hold opponents to just 41% from the field, which doesn’t quite correlate to their strong offensive numbers and average defensive numbers. Where they get into trouble on the defensive side is when they continuously foul opponents and send them to the free throw line, which happens quite often. Farmingdale State is lead by a trio of seniors in Matthew Graham ‘19 (15.9 PPG), George Riefenstahl ‘19 (14.4 PPG, 11.0 REB/G) and Ali Mableton ‘19 (12.0 PPG, 3.2 AST/G, 1.7 STL/G). Junior Ryan Kennedy ‘20 is lethal from deep, connecting at a 40.6% clip. Just like Rosemont and Rochester, Farmingdale State is a very good free throw shooting team, hitting over 76% of their shots from the line. If they end up meeting in the round of 32, Amherst will have to force the Rams to beat them with long two’s and limit the amount of free throws in order to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.