Spencer Smead

Appleton Bound? Amherst NCAA Baseball Regional Preview

Auburn Regional (New York Region) – Hosted by #9 Cortland

After earning the NESCAC automatic NCAA tournament bid, preventing Tufts from collecting their third straight conference title, the Amherst Mammoths will venture down to Falcon Park in Auburn, New York. Falcon Park is the home of #9 SUNY Cortland and the site for this year’s DIII baseball New York regional. Other notable teams include #10 Salisbury, out of Maryland, and #24 Southern Maine. NCAA regionals are a double-elimination tournament, much like the NESCAC playoffs. The winner of the regional will represent the New York Region at the 2018 DIII World Series in Appleton, Wisconsin.

First Opponent – #24 Southern Maine

Southern Maine finished 3rd in the Little East Conference this season, behind Eastern Connecticut and #3 UMass – Boston. Southern Maine finished 4-1 against NESCAC opponents this season, beating Bates and Colby in mid-week games and splitting games against Bowdoin. The USM Huskies are lead offensively by Devin Warren ‘19, who is hitting .401 with 31 RBI, and Dylan Hapworth ‘20, who has a .338 AVG and 8 home runs. Jake Dexter ‘19, whose father Tom is a baseball and football coach at Colby College, has been doing absolutely everything for the Huskies this season. At the plate he is hitting .387 with 28 RBI and on the mound he is USM’s #1 arm out of the ‘pen, maintaining a 1.67 ERA and 11.13 K/9. Amherst will most likely face Gage Feeney ‘20 who is 6-1 on the season with a 3.18 ERA. Southern Maine is no stranger to good competition as they have the 21st best strength of schedule in the nation, compared to Amherst’s 164th, per herosports.com.

Amherst will likely send out Sam Schneider ‘18 to face the Huskies as he has been their ace all year long. Schneider has started to stand out down the stretch in this playoff run, throwing 7 ⅔ strong innings against Bates in game 1 of the NESCAC playoffs and will have had 6 days of rest between that appearance and their contest versus USM. Amherst’s and USM’s staffs match up very evenly on paper. Amherst has a team ERA of 3.58 while USM’s team ERA is 3.82. They both have solid starters that should keep them in the game for 6+ innings and bullpens who have consistently kept the leads that their starters have given them this season. Offensively, Southern Maine has the clear advantage over Amherst. While both clubs have team averages in the low .300s, USM has been getting it done in style. The Huskies have belted 29 home runs as a team this season, compared to Amherst’s 11. The Mammoths will need to keep USM inside the ballpark in order for them to move past game 1 of the regional unscathed.

Game 2

If Amherst manages to take down USM, they will face the winner of #10 Salisbury vs. St. Joseph’s (L.I.). If Amherst loses to USM, they will face the loser of #10 Salisbury vs. St. Joseph’s (L.I.).

Salisbury enters the tournament after receiving an automatic bid as champions of the Capital Athletic Conference. The Salisbury Seagulls are on a 8-game winning streak, which is tied for the 5th longest active winning streak in D3 baseball and are the clear favorite to win their opening round game. They enter the tournament white-hot after sweeping through their conference tournament, scoring 49 runs and giving up just 7 in 5 games. Jack Barry ‘19 has been an offensive juggernaut for the Seagulls, boasting a .423 AVG and dropping a team-leading 8 bombs thus far. Salisbury’s offense is good, but their pitching is what makes them great. The Capital Athletic Conference is a hitter’s conference, nearly every team has averages above .300 and ERAs above 5.00. Salisbury has a conference-best 3.38 ERA, which is really what separates them from the competition. Their staff is spearheaded by Connor Reeves ‘18, who has the most wins in the nation at 13. Reeves also is 9th nationally in ERA at 1.22, 6th in strikeouts with 103 and 1st in innings pitched with 110 ⅔ (the NESCAC leader in IP has 64.1 for reference). If having one clear All-American wasn’t enough for Salisbury, how about two? Austin Heenan ‘18, a DI transfer from Virginia Military Institute, is 10-3 on the season, tied for 2nd most wins in the nation, with a 2.33 ERA. Heenan has racked up 110 strikeouts this season, which is also 2nd best in the nation. If Amherst were to face Salisbury in game 2, which would likely only occur given the Mammoths take game 1, they would have to face Heenan. While Amherst has seen their fair share of quality arms this year, All-American caliber players such as Reeves and Heenan are hard to come by, and even harder to beat.

Most likely, if Amherst loses game 1 they will face St. Joseph’s (L.I.). The Golden Eagles earned their NCAA tournament berth through capturing the Skyline Conference playoff title. Prior to their conference final against Merchant Marine, St. Joseph’s was riding an impressive 11-game win streak. The St. Joe’s lineup is headlined by Paul Britt ‘19, who transferred from host SUNY Cortland after his freshman year. Britt is hitting .406 and leads the team in homeruns (7) and RBI (35). The Golden Eagles have an extremely productive core in their lineup, but are not great top-to-bottom as many teams who fare well nationally are. On the mound, St. Joe’s has had 9 different guys start games for them and are usually quick to pull the trigger and head to the bullpen. Nick Clemente ‘18 has logged the most innings on the staff this year with 54 ⅔, a miniscule number compared to Salisbury’s #1 and #2. The Golden Eagles would be a very even matchup for Amherst, should they square off. Both teams have guys who are excellent individually, but the team as a whole doesn’t stick out in the very talented group in this regional.

Beyond Game 2

If the Mammoths are lucky enough to make it past 2 games, as Tufts was unable to do last year, they could face any combination of the remaining teams in the regional. #9 SUNY Cortland won their first national championship back in 2015 and has competed in 26 straight NCAA tournaments. Baldwin Wallace won the Ohio Athletic Conference tournament and has now made the NCAA tournament in 3 of their last 5 seasons. Swarthmore upset a very talented Johns Hopkins team to win their conference and currently hold a school-best 33 wins on the year. Finally, Westfield State captured the Massachusetts Small College Athletic Conference title to make their first NCAA tournament since 2009.

Overall, the majority of the teams at this regional simply outclass Amherst. The Mammoths could certainly compete against teams like Westfield State, Swarthmore, St Joseph’s and maybe even Baldwin Wallace. When it comes to teams such as Southern Maine, Salisbury and Cortland; Amherst would need to pull off a small miracle to walk away with a victory.

But since they are our only NESCAC team left, we believe in the Mammoths. Did anybody see Davidson College’s remarkable playoff run last year? Crazier things have happened, so keep reading to see how these academic weapons can keep the dream alive:

Amherst’s Strengths, Weaknesses and X-Factor

Strengths:

The boys are hot: Amherst is on a 5-game winning streak that includes 2 crucial wins against Midd to take them to the NESCAC playoffs and then 2 more impressive wins over two-time reigning champs Tufts.
Senior Leadership: The core of the Amherst lineup is Max Steinhorn ‘18, Ariel Kenney ‘18 and Harry Roberson ‘18. These boys have been grinding together for 4 years to reach this point and will not go out without a bang. They set the bar high for their teammates and challenge them to perform to their full potential. Senior leadership is an invaluable asset for any team and Amherst is full of it.
Sam Schneider is ready to go this weekend after back-to-back gems.
Their Bullpen: Similarly, Stephen Burke ‘21 has started his career off hot. In his 13 appearances he is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Zach Brown has also been a major player for Amherst, putting up a 1.76 ERA and 11.74 K/9 in his 9 appearances, despite lots of unearned runs and a lack of control. He can dominate if he locates his curveball, because his heat probably won’t phase these hitters as much as it did earlier this year. Mike Dow has also had a phenomenal statistical season with 7 saves, but has had some wild pitches and hit batters in his last few outings. If he keeps it together emotionally, Amherst will be good to go as his stuff is effective and he generally locates well. When it is time to hand the ball over to the ‘pen, Amherst has some great resources at their disposal which could help them further themselves in the NCAA tournament.

Weaknesses:

Quality of Competition: While it is a great feat in-and-of itself to capture the NESCAC title, the competition Amherst has faced has not prepared them for the level of talent they are about to go up against. No team that Amherst has faced this year is in the top-25, let alone any team that they have beaten. In a regional that has 3 top-25 teams, including 2 in the top-10, Amherst is facing competition unlike any they have seen this year.
Power: Amherst’s 11 home runs ranks last among all the teams at the regional. Alex Marcum ‘18 (Baldwin Wallace), Dudley Taw ‘20 (Baldwin Wallace) and Anthony Crowley ‘19 (Westfield St.) all have more home runs individually than Amherst does as a team. In high-stakes playoff environments such as the NCAA Regionals home runs can be a huge momentum shifter and Amherst simply doesn’t have to pop to produce many of them. Especially against high-quality arms, which they will be facing plenty of, it will be tough to string together hits, so the long ball becomes a much needed tool that Amherst doesn’t have access to.
Experience: Only the Seniors on this Amherst team have had the taste of NCAA playoffs. Amherst made the NCAA Regionals with an at-large bid back in 2015 after losing the NESCAC Championship to Wesleyan. That regional was also hosted by Cortland and the Mammoths went 1-2 in regional play, including a loss to eventual national champion Cortland. Many of the other teams in this regional consistently make the tournament or play in higher quality conferences, no offense NESCAC, that regularly get more than one team into NCAA Regionals. The lack of postseason experience could serve to hurt Amherst as they will be going in a huge underdog compared to many of the programs they will be facing.

X-Factor

Ariel Kenney ‘18:
Ariel Kenney ’18

Kenney started off the season hot and is my pick for West Player of the Year, but as of late he has cooled down significantly. In his last 8 games he is 5 for 29 (.172 AVG) and has had no extra base hits. Kenney has been a key part of the Mammoth lineup all season and if they wanted to outperform their expectations for this regional he’s going to have to break out of this slump and play like he was at the beginning of the season. Now is as tough a time as ever to break out of a slump, as he will be facing the best pitching he has seen all year and possibly in his career, but if he can’t go back to his POY ways, it is more than likely that Amherst will not make it too far in the regional.

Prediction

I believe that Amherst will drop their first game against Southern Maine and the rally to beat St. Joseph’s (L.I.) in their second game. Southern Maine’s pitching is not dominant, so the Mammoths certainly have a chance, however. Amherst’s staff is not deep enough to carry them for more than 2 or 3 games in such a short time-span so it is more than likely that whoever the Mammoths face in game 3, if they are lucky enough to make it that far, will get the better of them. That being said, as representatives of the NESCAC I will be rooting for Amherst to exceed my expectations and help to put NESCAC baseball back on the map. Good luck Mammoths.

Note: For the full regional schedule, please go online and check out Amherst Baseball’s page.

Time For Hardware: Regular Season NESCAC Baseball Awards

While the baseball season might be over, the awards season is just beginning. Not to be too self promoting here, but our awards are certainly less biased than the real NESCAC awards and should be taken more seriously. As it goes with the MLB awards, they are based on regular season results, not the postseason, and categorized based on league. Here’s to the best ballplayers in the ‘CAC…

West Player of the Year:

Ariel Kenney had a stand out season to finish off a great career.

OF Ariel Kenney ‘18 (Amherst) Chula Vista, CA: Kenney put a monster season this year en route to Amherst clinching of the #1 seed in the NESCAC West. Coming in at 3rd in the conference with his .383 AVG and 5th with his 4 big flys, Kenney was the heart of an Amherst offense that put up the 2nd most runs in the league. A few of Kenney’s impressive performances this season include a game versus Eastern Connecticut St. in which he went 4-5 with a homerun and a 2-2 stint with 3 RBI and a walk against Williams. Kenney’s 16 extra-base hits were third in the conference, helping boosting him to a .600 SLG%. Amherst will look to ride their MVP all the way to a NESCAC ‘ship, starting with Bates in NESCAC playoffs this weekend.

East Player of the Year AND Combat Silver Slugger POY:

Stony Brook transfer, Malcolm Nachmanoff, had by far the best season of any NESCAC player.

OF Malcolm Nachmanoff ‘18 (Tufts) Boston, MA: Another year, another Jumbo winning Player of the Year. That being said, there is absolutely no doubt that Nachmanoff deserves to take home the hardware after an incredible, breakout Senior spring. Nachmanoff lead the conference in Batting Average (.432), Homeruns (7), Slugging (.775), Doubles (15), Total Bases (86) and Extra-Base Hits (23). He was the NESCAC leader in 6 categories which is nothing less than absolute dominance. Nachmanoff transferred to Tufts after his sophomore season at D1 Stony Brook and proceeded to have a fairly rough Junior year for the Jumbos in which he only hit .182. He was able to find that D1 talent this season and prove that he is not just one, but several steps above the rest of the competition. Nachmanoff’s next challenge is to lead the Jumbos to his second ‘ship in 2 years and their first challenge will be the Wesleyan Cardinals.

West Cy Young:

P Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury) Ross, CA: Yes folks, the time has come. NBN is going to give our editor the credit he deserves. As much as we all love to make fun of Colby, his numbers are far too good to ignore. Morris was absolutely lights out all year long, leading the conference in Complete Games (4), Wins (5), Innings (63 ⅓) and Strikeouts (52). Along with all those feats, Morris was second in the conference with a jaw-dropping 1.71 ERA. Though, what made Morris’ effort so special this season is the way that he turned it on during conference play. In-conference he was 3-1, including 3 complete games, with 23 Ks and an ERA of 0.93. Despite the fact that Midd will be missing out on the playoffs this year after a tough series loss against Amherst, Morris did absolutely everything in his power to give them the opportunity to get there. Midd’s youthful core this season and Morris’ dominance should translate to a very exciting 2019 in Vermont.

East Cy Young:

RJ Hall has been there and done that in his three years at Tufts and is a tough matchup for any team in the playoffs.

P R.J. Hall ‘19 (Tufts) Marietta, GA: The East Cy Young was a particularly difficult award to pick because there were many good candidates, and almost all of them play for Tufts. Hall takes the cake because he proved himself to be the Jumbo’s most relied upon arm and ace throughout the season. Hall has a solid 5-2 record on the year, contributing immensely to Tufts’ 1st place finish in the East. His 47 strikeouts were far and away the most of anyone on the Jumbo’s staff and was 4th in the NESCAC. Hall notched 3 key conference wins over all 3 Maine schools (Colby, Bowdoin and Bates), including a complete game shutout against Bowdoin. Hall is the face of a three-headed monster for Tufts which will look to continue their success all the way to a three-peat of the NESCAC championship this weekend.

Reliever of the Year:

P Jake Shapiro ‘18 (Bates) Sandy, UT: It seemed as if every time Shapiro entered the game for the Bobcats, it was over. In his 14 appearances this season Shapiro maintained a .98 ERA and amassed 6 saves which were 2nd best in the ‘CAC. 5 of Shapiro’s 6 saves came in conference games, tied for the most of any pitcher this season. The reason behind Shapiro’s success was his ability to put hitters away via the strikeout. Shapiro has been punching out batters left and right and it shows in his 12.27 K/9. #2 Bates will face #1 Amherst this Friday in the first round of the NESCAC playoffs and you can be sure that if they have a lead Shapiro will be there man to finish it off.

Breakout Player of the Year:

P Spencer Langdon ‘20 (Tufts) Westlake, TX: After not seeing a single inning of work his Freshman year, Tufts hurler Spencer Langdon broke onto the scene in the NESCAC this year. He lead the NESCAC in ERA with a staggering 1.66 and holds a perfect 4-0 record heading into the playoffs. The majority of Langdon’s success came in NESCAC play in which he went 3-0 and had an even better ERA of 1.35. The Jumbos managed to win every single game that Langdon started this season, helping them to another first place finish in the NESCAC East. Tufts gave Langdon his first career start in their opening series against Trinity, after his impressive preseason relief stints, and never looked back. Langdon cemented his place as the best #3 starter in the conference this season and certainly as a candidate for POY. Tufts will use their hidden gem this weekend in NESCAC playoffs where Langdon will look to go 2/2 on NESCAC ‘ships.

Rookie of the Year:

P Kelvin Sosa ‘21 (Wesleyan) Bronx, NY: Amongst a 2021 class that was full of talent, Sosa proved to be the best. Earning himself the 2-spot in the rotation in just his first season, Sosa took full advantage of the opportunity he was given. His 2.54 ERA was the 5th best in the NESCAC and his 49 Ks were 3rd best. Some of his highlights this season include 6 ⅔ scoreless innings against Midd where he racked up 11 Ks and a 9 inning, complete game shutout against Williams that notched him 7 Ks. Sosa was a key piece in Wesleyan’s playoff run and will be getting his first taste of NESCAC playoffs this year. While Wesleyan’s next test is #1 seed in the East, Tufts, it is almost certain that Sosa will get the ball in game 2 of the playoffs.

2018 NESCAC 1st Team (Does not include award winners above)

C Chase Pratt ‘20 (Wesleyan) Rye, NY

IF Matt Koperniak ‘20 (Trinity) Adams, MA

IF Max Steinhorn ‘18 (Amherst) Washington, DC

IF Tommy O’Hara ‘18 (Tufts) Glenview, IL

IF Matt Zaffino ‘21 (Hamilton) New Canaan, CT

IF Justin Han ‘20 (Middlebury) Vienna, VA

OF Matt Treveloni ‘18 (Colby) Ashland, MA

OF Alex Capitelli ‘20 (Wesleyan) North Caldwell, NJ

OF Matt Jeye ‘18 (Wesleyan) Holliston, MA

P Brent Greeley ‘20 (Tufts) West Chester, PA

P Alex Shafer ‘20 (Trinity) Baltimore, MD

P Sam Schneider ‘18 (Amherst) San Diego, CA

What You Gotta Know: Amherst vs. Middlebury Series Breakdown

While everybody is looking towards the playoffs, there is still one series and one playoff spot on the line. Middlebury and Amherst are playing for their playoff lives with everything on the line this weekend. Read more to find out what you need to know before Saturday’s doubleheader:

Location: Forbes Field – Middlebury, VT

While Middlebury has only played 5 of their 28 games at home this season, they’ve certainly had success when playing on their own diamond. On the season Midd sits at 4-1 in all home contests, thanks to their current 4 game win streak at home. On the other side of the equation, Amherst has only had 7 away games this year and they are 4-3 in those contests, most notably beating Wesleyan 2 games out of 3 on the road. Overall I’d give the Panthers a slight advantage being on their home turf, but Amherst has clearly shown that they can get it done on the road, so home field advantage will not be enough to take them down.

Probable Starters:

Game 1: Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury) 4-4, 1.92 ERA vs Andrew Ferrero ‘19 (Amherst) 3-1, 2.19 ERA

Colby Morris ’19

Andrew Ferrero ’19

Game 2: Robert Erickson ‘18 (Middlebury) 3-2, 3.19 ERA vs Sam Schneider ‘18 (Amherst) 3-2, 3.22 ERA

Rob Erickson ’18

Sam Schneider ’18

Game 3: George Goldstein ‘21 (Middlebury) 2-0, 1.02 ERA vs Davis Brown ‘19 (Amherst) 5-2, 3.80 ERA

George Goldstein ’21

Davis Brown ’19

Game 1 of this series features two of the top pitchers in the conference this year in Morris and Ferrero. Both are Juniors, Bay Area natives (despite the fact that Morris lists himself as from Del Mar, which is fake news) (Editor’s Note: It is not fake news) and are enjoying the best years of their careers thus far. Game 1 should be a tight, low-scoring contest and will come down to which one of these aces can go the distance for their team. I would give Morris the advantage over Ferrero because he has been able to go CG in 2 of his 3 NESCAC games so far and has maintained a stellar 1.23 ERA in conference this year. Before Amherst’s loss against Hamilton I would have said that the game two matchup should be very close as well. But after giving up 6 earned in 3+ innings Davis Brown will likely have his start pushed to Sunday. That leaves the task up to Sam Schneider ’18 who will be making his last NESCAC start. Schneider got bounced after one inning against Hamilton and put up quality starts in his other two outings and is by no means a lock for success. On the other hand, Erickson has been able to hold all NESCAC West opponents to 3 runs or less per start so far this year. If both teams maintain their same rotation as last week then game 2 should be lopsidedly in favor of Middlebury. Game 3 looks to be an absolute wildcard as it pits Freshman George Goldstein, who only has one career start, against either Brown or an Amherst bullpen arm. Goldstein’s only career start came last week against Hamilton where he was able to go 5 strong, scoreless innings to get the final win of the series sweep for the Panthers. Despite Goldstein’s stellar numbers, because he didn’t go more than five innings in his start, he leaves a lot up to the Middlebury bullpen. This

Key Players:

Middlebury

Hayden Smith ‘20: .382/.452/.461, 21 RBI, 6 XBH

Justin Han ‘20: .367/.528/.456, 18 RBI, 27 BB, 20SB

Brooks Carroll ‘20: .311/.376/.427, 12 RBI, 9 XBH, 15SB

Amherst

Ariel Kenney ‘18: .420/.496/.670, 21 RBI, 4 HR, 11 BB

Max Steinhorn ‘18: .391/.458/.461, 16 RBI, 6 XBH, 14 SB

Harry Roberson ‘18: .316/.421/.429, 11 2B, 24 RBI, 16 BB

Numbers-wise, Amherst’s offense is clearly superior to Midd’s. Lead by a trio of Seniors, Amherst currently has the best team batting average in the conference at .304 while Midd sits in 6th at .267. One thing that both of these teams do especially well is run the bases. Midd leads the conference by a significant margin with their 72 bags swiped while Amherst is 3rd with their 53 stolen bases. Interestingly, when it comes to away games for the Mammoths, their team average is less than 10 points lower than it is for home games, showing that they are not intimidated on the road. Luckily for Middlebury, their team average goes up nearly 80 points when they are on their home field, which may provide some of the offense that Midd has seemed to be lacking all season. Overall, I think that Amherst has a clear offensive advantage over Middlebury and Midd will need to use the leverage of their home field advantage, as well as their current 9 game win streak, in their favor in order to be able to match the Mammoth’s outstanding plate presence.

Midd has something going right now after two straight sweeps. Photo courtesy of David Goldstein.

Series History (Since 2007)

Overall:

Amherst: 25-9

Middlebury 9-25

Home:

Amherst: 11-4

Middlebury: 5-10

Away:

Amherst: 10-5

Middlebury 4-11

Neutral:

Amherst: 4-0

Middlebury 0-4

It’s fairly clear to see that over the past decade or so Amherst has dominated their matchup against Midd. Both the home and away numbers are very similar for both teams, showing that home field advantage has not played all too much of a role in their past meetings. Although last year Midd was able to take 2 of 3 games from the Mammoths in Massachusetts and Middlebury made a much further playoff run than Amherst, so perhaps we are seeing a cultural shift happening in Vermont that is trending in the right direction. Despite the fact that history would choose Amherst over Midd by a long shot, with the recent momentum Midd has gained as well as their success last season against Amherst, this series will certainly be much tighter than it has been in years past.

What’s on the Line (Playoff Scenarios)

Amherst: After a devastating loss to Hamilton on Thursday, the Mammoths now need to get a series win on the road in order to secure their playoff spot. Anything less than 2 wins would have Amherst go from the #1 seed to a team that will miss the playoffs entirely. If the Mammoths are able to take 2 games from Midd they will salvage their playoff spot and retain their status as the #1 seed.

Middlebury: Hamilton’s win over Amherst was a godsend for the Panthers as Midd’s comeback from last in the division is nearly complete. All Middlebury needs now is a series win at home to come all the way back from their rocky start. 2 wins or more will see Middlebury make the playoffs as the #2 seed, something that seemed unfathomable just weeks ago.

Coming Down to the Wire: Playoff Scenario Breakdown

NESCAC East:

Bates (13-12, 6-3 NESCAC): Bates is currently riding high, sharing the top seed in the East with Tufts. The Bobcats were able to put themselves in this position through a hard-fought sweep of Trinity. Bates was able to get ahead early and put the Bantams away in games 1 and 3 of the series and put up a 4 run 7th inning in game 2 to complete a wild comeback. Next, Bates has to square off against Tufts, and this series may determine which one of them makes it into the playoffs. If Bates is able to win at least one game against Tufts, they will make the playoffs based on their head to head record against Trinity. Two wins or a sweep gets them the top spot in the East. It all comes down to these final 3 games for the Bobcats, so now is the time to get the job done.

Prediction: Bates finishes 7-5 in the NESCAC East and makes the playoffs as a 2-seed (tiebreaker vs Trinity).

Bowdoin (11-16, 4-5 NESCAC): Bowdoin started off their season hot, taking 2 of 3 from rival Bates, but since then the momentum just hasn’t been there for the Polar Bears. After losing their next 2 series to Trinity and Tufts, Bowdoin finds themselves sitting in 4th place in the NESCAC East. Even with a sweep of Colby this weekend, which is not too unlikely, both Tufts and Trinity hold the tiebreaker over Bowdoin so their playoff hopes have been officially eliminated.

Prediction: Bowdoin finishes 6-6 in the NESCAC and does not make the playoffs.

Colby (5-18, 1-8 NESCAC): Colby’s playoff hopes have been gone for quite some time, but after getting swept by Tufts they are officially out of playoff contention. They next play Bowdoin, who are also eliminated from playoff contention, in what has turned out to be a consolation series.

Prediction: Colby finishes 2-10 in the NESCAC and does not make the playoffs.

Trinity is playing the waiting game this weekend…

Trinity (14-13, 7-5 NESCAC): While Trinity is the first NESCAC team to have completed all of their league games, there is still a lot on the line for the Bantams this weekend. If either Tufts or Bates is able to sweep the other, or if Bates takes 2 of 3 from Tufts, the Bantams will be playoff bound. For Trinity all they can do now is watch, wait and pray. While the Bantams do have double headers against both Amherst and Midd this weekend, none of those games will count for their NESCAC record (which is a whole different issue to discuss), so the most important series for the Bantams this weekend will be taking place in Maine.

Trinity will make the playoffs with the following scenarios:

-If either team sweeps, resulting in one team finishing at 9-3 with the 1 seed, and the other at 6-6 with a 3^rd place finish

-If Bates wins 2 of 3, Trinity will tie for 2^nd with Tufts at 7-5, who they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over.

Trinity will be eliminated from the playoffs with the following scenarios:

-If Tufts wins 2 of 3, resulting in an 8-4 1^st place finish for Tufts, and a 7-5 2^nd place finish for Bates, who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Trinity.

This is obviously a really tricky situation for Trinity, as Tufts winning 2 would end their season, but Tufts winning 3 would extend it. Unfortunately for any Trinity fans, I would say that the most likely situation would be Tufts winning 2 of 3, but it is definitely possible with the way they are not only pitching, but hitting, that they could take all 3. I’m going to predict that Tufts and Bates, in that order, however, are the two teams to represent the East Division in the NESCAC tournament. What a difference a weekend can make.

Prediction: Trinity finishes 7-5 in the NESCAC and does not make the playoffs (tiebreaker vs Bates).

Tufts (15-12, 6-3 NESCAC): Tufts is currently red-hot, taking 3 games from Colby and scoring 56 runs in the process. The Jumbos seem to be gaining momentum at the right time, winning 6 of their last 7 NESCAC games heading into the end of the year. Next up they have the Bates squad with whom they are currently tied for 1st in the East. This series is crucial for the Jumbos because if they drop one to Bates, they will be eliminated from playoff contention for the first time since 2013. If Tufts manages to win the series they will be back in the playoffs and will have a shot at making it 3 straight NESCAC championships.

Stony Brook transfer, Malcolm Nachmanoff, is having his first successful full season with the Jumbos and leads the league with 6 long balls.

Prediction: Tufts will finish 8-4 in NESCAC and make the playoffs as the 1-seed.

NESCAC West:

Amherst (17-8, 6-2 NESCAC): With 4 NESCAC games remaining, Amherst is sitting pretty in 1st place in the West, with a comfortable lead on the rest of the division. If the Mammoths only win one of their next 4 games they still have a chance to make the playoffs but if they take 2 of their next 4 they are guaranteed in. Getting 2 wins in 3 games against Midd and 1 game against Hamilton should not be an issue for Amherst who has been rolling all year. Barring a sweep by Middlebury, Amherst should have no issue cruising into a 1-seed this year.

Prediction: Amherst will finish 9-3 and will make the playoffs as the 1-seed

Hamilton (15-14, 3-5 NESCAC): Hamilton has been lead this season by the strong performance of their freshman class. Matt Zaffino ‘21, Jarrett Lee ‘21 and Ethan Wallis ‘21 are the top three hitters in the Continental lineup, which should bode very well for the future of their program. For now however, Hamilton is sitting at 4th place in the West and has a tough road ahead of them if they want to find themselves in a playoff spot. After defeating #6 Cortland this week, Hamilton has a home series against Midd and then a final game against current 1-seed Amherst. Both of these matchups will be tough for the Continentals as Midd is coming off a sweep of Bowdoin and Amherst is looking to be the favorite to win the conference. Hamilton holds head-to-head advantage against Wesleyan, but not against Williams, who face each other this weekend. Hamilton still has a shot at the playoffs if they are able to take 3 or 4 of their final 4 games and Williams does not sweep Wesleyan. For now the Continentals will need to focus on what they can change, which is their own games, and hope that everything else goes their way.

Prediction: Hamilton will finish 4-8 and not make the playoffs.

Middlebury (10-13, 2-4 NESCAC): Believe it or not, Midd still has half of their NESCAC games to play. Although they might be sitting in last place in the West at the moment, it is certainly not impossible for the Panthers to pull themselves into a playoff spot. Coming up first for Midd is Hamilton, who dropped their most recent series to Williams 2 games to 1. Middlebury is most likely going to have to sweep this series in order to give themselves a chance to make playoffs. Coming off a sweep of Bowdoin, the momentum should be there for the Panthers, which will make them a tough squad for Hamilton to face. Second, Midd has to take on current 1-seed Amherst. This series will be the decider in whether Middlebury will make playoffs. In order to be the best, you have to beat the best. Midd will have to prove to the rest of the conference, and themselves, that they are playoff-worthy and taking down a powerful Mammoth team will be all the evidence they need.

Prediction: Middlebury will finish 5-7 and not make playoffs.

Wesleyan (17-11, 5-4 NESCAC): Wesleyan is sitting in 2nd place in the NESCAC West at the moment, but Williams is right on their heels. Luckily for the Cardinals, their next series is at home, where they are 7-2 this season, and it is against Williams. If Wesleyan is able to perform in crunch time the same way they have all season, they are a lock for the playoffs. Williams will have to face the three-headed monster of Mike McCaffrey ‘19, Alec Olmstead ‘20 and Kelvin Sosa ‘21. This trio is the same one that shut down Midd in their last series, and considering the fact that Midd tore through Williams, the Cardinals are the sure favorite in this series. If Wesleyan picks up 2 wins they should be home free, unless Midd happens to win all 6 of their remaining games or Hamilton wins all of their next 4. The Cardinals have their fate in their own hands right now and I very much expect them to use it to their advantage.

Prediction: Wesleyan will finish 7-5 and make the playoffs as the 2-seed.

Jack Bohen and the Ephs need a lot of help to continue their season.

Williams (8-16, 4-5 NESCAC): At the beginning of the year it seemed as if Williams was the favorite to end up in dead-last in the NESCAC, but they have managed to turn it around and find themselves with an opportunity to make the playoffs. After losing 2 of 3 games in both of their first series against Amherst and Midd, the Ephs were able to pick up a huge series win against Hamilton which put them in playoff contention and gives them the all-important tiebreaker against the Continentals. The formula for making the playoff for Williams is pretty simple, a series win against Wesleyan will put them in a very good spot. If they beat the Cardinals 2 games to 1, they will hold the tiebreaker against them and therefore be in 2nd place and make the playoffs. However they will still have to worry about Hamilton, who will pass the Ephs if the take 4 of their next 4, and Midd, who will pass them if they take 4 of their next 6. Although Williams has the ability to decide their fate, they have to face an extremely talented Wesleyan team on their home turf. Williams will have to pull off a pretty surprising upset to make playoffs, but crazier things have happened.

Prediction: Williams will finish 5-7 and not make playoffs

Everybody Knows that Betting is Tough; NESCAC Baseball Top 5 Surprises of 2018

You might notice that some of our preseason predictions are a bit off. We foresaw some things and whiffed on some others. Here are the things we swung and missed on and why they matter so far this season:

Tufts’ In-Conference Woes: Does their Record Accurately Reflect their Potential?

In NBN’s preview of the Eastern Division last month, the question wasn’t “Which two teams are making the playoffs?”, but rather “Which team is going to finish below Tufts?” Halfway through their conference schedule, a different narrative is being presented. The Jumbos currently sit at a 3-3 in-conference record, and are heading into their 3rd weekend of NESCAC play. Tufts faced a tough Bantams squad for their first NESCAC series, but nobody expected that they would be on the short end of 2/3 games. The first two games of this series were close ball games but, both victories went to the Bantams. Tufts was able to salvage the third game of the series but nevertheless, the Jumbos are not used to losing series, especially on their own turf. Although Tufts was able to win their next series against Bowdoin, 2 games to 1, they were handed their third loss, one more loss than NBN predicted they would have all season long. So what is going wrong for the Jumbos? Are there key pieces who haven’t gotten it going? Or is it just dumb luck that their opponents have been able to get the better of them?

RJ Hall has cemented himself as one of the league’s best pitchers.

Nick Falkson ‘18, was my pick for Eastern Division MVP and he’s just not quite living up to the hype right now. Despite the fact that he is leading the conference in homeruns (4), his .269 BA shows an inconsistency of hard contact. His average has gone down over .100 from last season and perhaps this could help explain some of Tufts’ troubles, as their senior leader is not all he was cut out to be. On the mound, Tuft’s 1-2 punch of Brent Greeley ‘20 and R.J. Hall ‘19 have been lights out. Greeley is 3rd in the conference with a 1.85 ERA and Hall is 2nd in the conference with 3 wins. Out of the ‘pen Spencer Langdon ‘20 is leading the conference in ERA (1.08) and has a clean 2-0 record. Looking at Tuft’s stats, there doesn’t seem to be too much going wrong. So how did they end up 3-3? They happened to run into a red hot Trinity, who were barely able to take 2 of 3 from the Jumbos. Secondly, Bowdoin’s only win against Tufts was an extremely close 4-3 game in which the Jumbos had the tying run on base and just barely couldn’t get the job done. My intuition says that the talent is still there for the Jumbos and they certainly will not be missing out on the playoffs this year. I would predict an electric playoff series between 2-Seed Tufts and 1-Seed Amherst, with the Jumbos hungry for yet another ‘ship.

The whole Tufts staff, including its two first year starters, is pushing back towards the playoffs.

Trinity’s Improved Staff

Trinity’s staff carried them to a series win against the previously untouchable Jumbos.

Offense was never going to be an issue for the Bantam’s this year. As predicted, they have been getting it done at the plate, in-conference they are boasting a team AVG of .304 (2nd in NESCAC), 33 XBH (1st), 4 HR (1st), 56 RBI (1st) and 21 SB (1st). To be fair they have played 9 games while almost all other teams (with the exception of Bowdoin) have only played 5 or 6, but the numbers are impressive regardless. Trinity’s question was whether their pitching staff has the ability to keep them in games. Last year the Bantams finished 7th in team ERA (4.68) and were dead last in home runs allowed (16) and K/9 (5.94). This year Trinity’s staff has really stepped it up, lowering their in-conference ERA to a modest 3.65, raising their K/9 to 8.57 (2nd in NESCAC) and leading the NESCAC with 68Ks. The combination of Trinity’s potent offense and rejuvenated mound presence have lead the Bantams to a conference-best 7 wins. Much of Trinity’s success on the mound is thanks to starters Erik Mohl ‘19 and Alex Shafer ‘20. These two starters for the Bantams have combined for 5 of the team’s 7 conference wins. In 2 of Shafer’s 3 starts in the ‘CAC, he has gone the distance for a CG. In the one start he didn’t toss the whole game, he pitched 6 ⅔ innings of a 7 inning game. It’s safe to say that this guy is an absolute workhorse for the Bantams and his ability to limit bullpen use has been extremely helpful to their success this year. Schafer looks to have a real shot at NESCAC Pitcher of the Year as he is second in the league in innings pitched (37 ⅓), tied for first in complete games (2) and wins (4) and is 4th in ERA (2.17). Experience has clearly aided the Bantam’s staff this year as they have returned every single pitcher from last year. With the addition of Max Barsamian ‘21 and Justin Olson ‘21, Trinity has taken advantage of their ability to grow and mature as a staff over the last year and the results show it. With the Bantams leading the conference in many major statistical categories, both offensively and defensively, it seems as if they are on a crash course to a NESCAC championship as nobody has shown the ability to slow them down yet.

Midd’s Early Struggles

Hayden Smith is one of the few brights spots in 2018 for the Panthers.

To say that the Panther’s started out on a high note is a complete understatement. After a whopping 20-1 opening day victory over Williams, it seemed as if Midd was on the fast-track to another NESCAC championship appearance. After splitting the double header the next day, things still seemed to be going according to plan as the Panthers headed back home to snowy Vermont with a respectable 2-1 conference record. The next weekend would turn out to be one that Midd fans wish they could forget. Wesleyan managed to take all 3 games from Midd, pushing the Panthers from being playoff-likely, to being tied for last in the division with the Williams team they had clobbered the previous weekend. As NBN predicted in our preview of the West Division, it was not likely that their order would be as consistent as 2017, which was evident after struggling against Wes’ pitching. Additionally, the Panther staff wasn’t getting it done either, allowing 23 runs over the 3 game series. On the season, Midd is next to last in the league in batting average (.252) and total bases (208). Additionally, they are 8th in conference in ERA (5.46), which is not a great combination for a successful team. The road to repeat for Midd looks tough this year, as their remaining NESCAC opponents are a Hamilton squad, who just took 2 out of 3 games from the same Wesleyan club that swept the Panthers, and a red hot Amherst who currently leads the West Division. A sweep, or even two, might be necessary for Middlebury to find themselves back in the playoffs this year. This will be an especially tough ask when one of their starters (Colin Waters ‘19) has an ERA over 10 and the rest of their ‘pen hasn’t fared too well either. Also considering the fact that only 2 starters, Justin Han ‘20 and Hayden Smith ’20, are hitting over .300, things are gonna have to change for the Panthers really quickly in order for them to be playoff contenders once again.

Age is Just a Number: Freshman Getting it Done at the Dish

Everyone knows that the jump from high school to college baseball can be extremely difficult adjustment for some. Clearly nobody told these Freshman that, as they have been tearing it up at the plate for their respective teams.

Joseph Palmo ‘21 (Amherst) Austin, TX: Palmo, along with his fellow Mammoths, have started off their 2018 campaign on a hot streak. The Texas native has started out his college career on a high note, hitting at a .350/.412/.450 clip. Not only is it a feat in and of itself to be a starter as a Freshman, but Palmo takes full advantage of the opportunity of the playing time he’s given. Palmo has the 3rd highest batting average among a group of extremely talented starters for Amherst. His consistency at the plate has helped the Mammoths to a 4-1 start in conference play and I would expect to be hearing Palmo’s name a lot for the next 3 years.

Eric Pappas ‘21 (Williams) Providence, RI: While there has not been a lot of success to point to in Williamstown, as the Ephs currently have a 5-14 (2-4 in NESCAC) record, Pappas provides hope for a struggling Williams squad. With an outrageous .415 batting average, Pappas currently sits in 3rd place in the NESCAC. Pappas is constantly putting the ball in play, resulting in only striking out a mere 2 times on the season. Maybe Pappas’ older teammates could take a page out of his book; as a team Williams is striking out in about 20% of their ABs compares to Pappas’ 5%. Perhaps some youthful inspiration from Pappas could help turn around the Ephs’ season, but at the moment that probably won’t be enough.

Andrew Russell ‘21 (Colby) Massapequa, NY: Russell is yet another thriving Freshman on a struggling squad. While the Mules are currently last in the NESCAC with their 4-15 (1-5 in NESCAC) record, that hasn’t slowed down Russell’s bat. Russell is 3rd on the team with his .311 AVG and is one of 5 Mules to go yard this season. Earning the starting shortstop job as a Freshman means that he will have 3 more years to bring Colby to their first NESCAC playoffs because, barring a miracle, they will miss out on postseason play yet again this year.

Matt Zaffino ‘21 (Hamilton) New Canaan, CT and Jarrett Lee ‘21 (Hamilton) Medfield, MA: Sitting in 3rd place in the West Division, Hamilton’s success this year has been a surprise to most. We predicted that Hamilton would come last in the NESCAC this season, going 2-10 in conference. The Continentals have already met that win total, boasting a 12-11 (2-3 in NESCAC) record. A major part of their unprecedented success this year has been the contributions by these 2 key freshman. Lee has an excellent season thus far, sporting a .349 BA and .950 OPS. Lee leads the team in stolen bases (6) and is last in strikeouts (6). Zaffino is looking like the leading offensive candidate for NESCAC Rookie of the Year so far. He leads the Continentals in AVG (.394), walks (15), RBI (19), 2B (6), 3B (4) and HR (3).This kid is legit and the conference has taken notice. When making pre-season predictions the biggest wildcard is always the performance of first year players. Zaffino and Lee are also leading Hamilton in most offensive categories making it clear why they were overlooked heading into 2018. Although they’re currently 1 ½ games outside of 2nd place, the Continentals have the chance to ride their newfound fountain of youth all the way to the playoffs.

Wesleyan’s Strikeout Factory

Heading into the 2018 season there was no debate that Wesleyan would have a strong pitching staff, seeing as Mike McCaffrey ‘19 and Alec Olmstead ‘20 would be returning. Both of these pitchers are known for being able to not only get ahead in the count but consistently putting away hitters via the strikeout. With the support of newcomer Kelvin Sosa ‘21, who currently is racking up 11.06 K/9, the Cardinals currently rank 1st in the NESCAC and 25th in the nation in K/9 at 9.8. Wesleyan is one of only two NESCAC teams to break the top 100 in this category nationally (Colby ranks 82nd at 7.9 K/9), and it is in very large part thanks to this trio of starters. McCaffrey and Olmstead each hold K/9s of 11.73 and 10.93, respectively, to go along with Sosa’s stellar strikeout rate. Being able to get over 33% of their outs via strikeout has allowed the Cardinals to post a +39 run differential on the season en route to their 15-8 (4-2 in NESCAC) record. No team in the NESCAC has ever finished the season with a K/9 of over 9.0 so the Cardinals have the chance to make it into the record books. Sitting a half game back of 1st place Amherst, Wesleyan will look to their staff to keep putting Ks up on the board in order to continue their success.

Pitching is the Catalyst: NESCAC Baseball Stock Report Week 3

Stock Up:

Messing with Hitters

This weekend Wesleyan Freshman Klevin Sosa a.k.a. the lefty Johnny Cueto of the ‘CAC, showed us that he means business. Sosa pitched an absolute gem of a game against reigning runner-ups Middlebury to give the Cardinals a win in the second game of their series sweep. Sosa tossed 6 ⅔ dominant innings to stifle the Panthers, racking up 11Ks and only allowing 2 walks and 2 hits for no runs. With a season ERA of 1.16 and a K/9 of nearly 12, Sosa is not only making a case for a NESCAC Rookie of the Year spot, but maybe a First Team bid as well if he keeps this going through conference play. His keys to success are his changes in timing, slidestepping, double-leg kicking, holding at the bottom, and generally messing with hitters. He has some of the same flair as Johnny Cueto and Marcus Stroman, and was able to pitch like them last weekend:

Preseason Awards List Accuracy

If you thought Sosa’s performance was good, then you missed the real gem. LHP Mike McCaffrey ’19 didn’t just quiet Middlebury bats, he silenced them, combining for a no-no with Pat Clare. I would like to personally thank Mike for starting to live up to my prediction (https://nothingbutnescac.com/?p=5845) that he will be this year’s West Division Cy Young. His rocky starts in non-conference matchups did have me worried and his 4.28 ERA is still not where it needs to be, but clearly McCaffrey knows how to get hot when it counts. I would also like to offer my condolences to my editor and friend, RHP Colby Morris ‘19 (Middlebury), who pitched a CG loss for the Panthers against McCaffrey’s Cardinals. With the way that Midd was hitting in Game 1 they may as well have let Colby have a shot at hitting McCaffrey. But as anyone who has seen Colby hit knows, he probably would have fared just as well as his teammates.

McCaffrey was three outs a way from a CG no-no. A combined no hitter isn’t too bad though.

Amherst’s Weightlifting Program

The upperclassmen duo of Nick Nardone and Ariel Kenney wreaked havoc on the ERA of Williams’ pitchers this weekend. Both Nardone and Kenney managed to hit doubles in every single game of their 2-1 series win against the Ephs. Combined, these two hit .500/.577/.773 on the weekend powering the Mammoths to 11-9 and 16-4 wins along with a tight 5-4 loss. On the season Nardone now has a very respectable .876 OPS and Kenney boasts a ridiculous .431 BA. Halfway through conference play it’s looking like Amherst could be contending with West Division rival Wesleyan for the top spot in the NESCAC. These two clubs will face off for their final in-conference series later this month in what could turn out to be a NESCAC Championship preview. For now, the Mammoths will be traveling to Vermont next weekend to take on a staggering Panther team, which could lead to further inflation of these already noteworthy stats for Kenney and Nardone.

Bates Pitching

Holding another team to only 5 runs in a series is usually unheard of in NESCAC baseball, but the boys on the mound for the Bobcats were able to pull it off this past weekend. Starting off the series for Bates was LHP Connor Russell ‘18 who shut down rival Colby College on their own turf, going the distance in a complete game shutout. Although he didn’t need it, Russell was aided with copious run support in an 11-0 blowout. Bates took that momentum into Game 2 in which, RHP Nolan Collins ‘20, went 7 strong innings, only surrendering 1 run to the Mules. LHP Jake Shapiro ‘18 then came in for the Bobcats and finished off Game 2, not allowing a run in his 2 innings of relief. Although Bates did lose Game 3, they still got a scoreless 3 ⅓ IP of relief on a combined effort by Alex Simon ‘19, Miles Michaud ‘20 and Jake Shapiro ‘18. After a fairly ugly preseason, I’m sure that the Bobcats are fired up to see that things are starting to click on the mound. Although Colby doesn’t appear to be the strongest competition in the NESCAC, teams have to take every conference win that they can in order to contend for a playoff spot. In a conference of hitters, finding a way to get it done on the mound is invaluable.

Stock Down:

William’s Starting Pitching

When you struggle to make it to the second inning on the mound, you’re gonna have a bad time. In their series against Amherst, Williams’ starters RHP Kyle Dean ‘20 and LHP Charlie Carpenter ‘20 combined to go 0-2, only lasting 1 ⅔ IP, and amassing 13 ER on 8 hits, 6 walks and 3 Ks. Now I’m sure everyone has heard of the sophomore slump, but a combined 70.2 ERA and 8.40 WHIP for the two hurlers is a little more harsh than most could even imagine. I’m just going to go ahead and say that Dean is not going to win the Reliever of the Year award, I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong, and wow was I wrong with that one. A consolation prize goes to RHP George Carroll ‘21, who went 6 ⅔ IP and allowed 3 ER in the Eph’s lone 5-4 win. Thanks to Carroll, Williams starter’s ERA drops to 17.3 for the weekend, not great but, hey, it’s something. Williams will face both Trinity and Bates next week in a pair of battles between East and West in which they will look to bounce back from their performance against Amherst. To end on some words of encouragement for the Eph’s staff, there is nowhere to go but up, probably.

There have been plenty of runners for Williams C Alex Panstares to worry about with the state of their starting pitching.

Midd’s Playoff Hopes

As the Panthers returned east, leaving sunny SoCal, their hopes to make their way back to the NESCAC championship went south. In the NESCAC, in which you only have 12 conference games, being swept could be a death sentence for your playoff hopes. Too little, too late was the story of the weekend for the Panther lineup. Middlebury’s offense was held scoreless by Wesleyan for the first 13 innings of the series, not scoring until the 7th inning of Game 2. Maybe the reason that Midd couldn’t get their bats going is that morale was low from the get-go. At no point in any of the three games was Middlebury in the lead. This is probably due to the fact that in the first 5 innings of each game Wesleyan outscored Midd 18-4, aka too little. Although the Panthers were able to turn it around later in the game, outscoring Wesleyan 10-5 from the 6th inning on, it was, you guessed it, too late. Baseball is a game of momentum and there was none to be found for Middlebury this weekend and it showed in the box scores. A team ERA of 9.41 and team batting average of .195 is not going to get the Panthers where they need to be. Middlebury’s series next weekend against Amherst will be make or break for their season. A sweep will put them ahead of the Mammoths in the standings and back in contention for a playoff spot but in order for the Panthers to make that happen they will need their bats to get going much much earlier.

Colby’s Infield

Lack of production is the nice way of describing Colby’s infield this weekend against Bates. As a group they went a combined 6-43 (.140 BA), left 11 runners on base, grounded into 3 double plays and got caught stealing on 2 of 3 attempts. An argument could be made that as a group they did more harm than good offensively. In the NESCAC a successful team needs to find production up and down the lineup and that was certainly not the case for the Mules in their NESCAC opener. Without a 10-30 (.333 BA) effort from Colby’s outfield the series could have been even uglier than it already was. The contrast between the Mules’ infield and outfield certainly explains why they’re currently last in the CAC with 1 ⅔ runs scored per conference game. The upsides for the Mules are two-fold; the fact that they were able to steal an away win in their final game against Bates could provide some momentum rolling into next weekend’s contest against a Trinity squad who currently leads the Eastern Division. Secondly, Senior Captain Matt Treveloni still paces the team with a .442 BA (2nd in the NESCAC), .674 SLG (3rd), 1.163 OPS (4th) and 2 3B (3rd). While Treveloni makes a strong case for First Team, as of now it still seems as if Colby won’t realize the dream of reaching their 1st ever NESCAC playoffs.

The Snow is Starting to Thaw: NESCAC Baseball Spring Break Recap

Editor’s Note: All of the NESCAC spring break trips are now over and conference play has started for eight of 10 teams. While it might be easy to predict some weekend results, others become muddled after looking at teams’ overall records. Depending on the region of spring break trips (Florida, Arizona, the Mid-Atlantic, or California) there are vastly different strengths of schedules, leading to either inflated or deflated stats. Generally, California has the strongest teams, while all of the other regions have extremely weak competition. For a more in depth look at strength of schedule, check out this site which provides a ranking and strength of schedule assessment for ever D3 baseball team in the country: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html.

Amherst:

Trip Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

Despite a stretch of losses in the middle, Amherst (9-5, 2-0) came out of their preseason contests boasting a respectable 7-5 record. While their offense did its job, hitting .279 as a team and scoring 5.9 runs per game, their pitching is really what carried their success. Andrew Ferrero ‘19 has been the Mammoths’ best pitcher so far, only allowing 2 runs in 18.2 IP on the young season, however, mostly out of the bullpen. Also impressive was Zach Horwitz ‘20 who holds a 1.64 ERA after 11 innings on the bump. Offensively, Amherst was led by Ariel Kenney ‘18 who hit .364 and had a sky-high OPS of 1.157 as a result of two home runs on their trip down south. The Mammoths have set a solid tone for their club for the rest of the season and if key pieces like Harry Roberson ‘18 start to find a groove, Amherst could be title contenders.

Bates:

Trip Location: California

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Strong

Bates (4-9, 1-2) started out their 2018 campaign slowly, dropping six straight games in California. Although they started off on a bad note, both for themselves and for the NESCAC, the Bobcats were able to pick themselves up a little bit once they got back to the East Coast, taking 3 of their next 4 games. A 3-7 record going into NESCAC play is nothing to brag about, but maybe Bates can use some of their recent success to jumpstart them in conference play. With a team ERA of 6.12 and team batting average of .195 going into the opening weekend, there weren’t a whole lot of individuals who stood out as noteworthy after their early trip to SoCal. One bright spot may be Dan Trulli ‘19 who hit .262 over their 10 games and dropped Bates’ only bomb all preseason long. While Bates did play poorly, they traveled to California on February 18th, just three days after official practices started, so we will give them a break here as they couldn’t have been adequately prepared to compete.

Bowdoin:

Spring Break Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Medium

Bowdoin (8-7, 2-1) exits their preseason going an average 6-6. While they had a few lopsided victories (10-1 and 10-2 over Keuka), they also had lopsided losses (16-3 against #3 Rowan). Bowdoin really came into their own over their last 6 games, going 5-1 and holding opposing offenses to only 2.5 runs per game. While their staff as a whole has a very unimpressive ERA of 5.82, Seamus Keenan ‘20 sets the pace for the Polar Bears with a 1.42 ERA and 13K through his first 12 ⅔ IP. The offense has been led by Joe Gentile ‘18 and Jack Wilhoite ‘19 who are each hitting .405 and .406, respectively. While Bowdoin does have 4 guys hitting over .340, nobody in the rest of their lineup is able to crack .260, creating a stark contrast between the middle of their order and the rest. Bowdoin’s keys to success this season will be to lower that team ERA, and get everyone involved up and down the lineup.

Colby:

Spring Break Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

After a huge 13-4 victory over Keuka on opening day, the Mules (2-8, 0-0) have looked stagnant. Going 1-6 since that win is not the look that Colby needed going into NESCAC play. Their only other win after Keuka comes against Waterville rival Thomas College, which is not a particularly impressive win to say the least. Captain Matt Treveloni ‘18 has had a stand out spring so far hitting .440, with the majority of his knocks being for extra bases. Will Phillips ‘20 has also been lighting it up for the Mules at the plate hitting .444. On the other side of the equation, Colby has been giving up an average of 6.6 runs per game, and the offense can’t keep pace with that so far. One success the Mules have had on the mound so far has been Frank Driscoll ‘21, who allowed no earned runs and recorded 8 Ks in the first start of his college career, earning the win over Thomas. The clear problem the Mules have right now is not their ability to put runs on the board, but rather keep them off of it. As their younger pitchers gain more experience, perhaps the Mules can take an opportunity to climb in the standings from their last place finish in 2017.

Hamilton:

Spring Break Location: Florida

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

Hamilton’s (6-9, 0-2) preseason has been an absolute rollercoaster ride. Dropping their first 7 contests, the Continental’s trajectory seemed to be on a crash course for disaster. That is until their bats caught fire and proceeded to win them their next 6 games in a row. Talk about getting hot at the right time, Hamilton is coming into conference play riding a huge wave of momentum, even though they couldn’t finish out a game against Amherst on opening weekend. A large chunk of their success so far has come from freshman duo Jarrett Lee ‘21 and Matt Zaffino ‘21 who both look to be in the early running for NESCAC Rookie of the Year. Zaffino’s 10 extra base hits, three big flys, .405 AVG. and absurd .892 SLG% pace the Continentals through this past weekend. Hamilton’s freshman heavy lineup continues with Gavin Schaefer-Hood ‘21 who leads the Continentals with 16 ⅓ IP saw his 3.77 ERA balloon to 6.06 after a rough outing against Amherst. While Hamilton would not appear to be in the running for a NESCAC crown this season, I would expect them to find a lot more success this season than last with lots of help from their newfound fountain of youth.

Andrew Corcoran ’18 and the Panthers take big swings and will try to continue their suddenly hot offensive streak into Middletown this weekend.

Middlebury:

Spring Break Location: California

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Strong

While Midd (6-9, 2-1) boasts a weak 4-8 non-conference record, their strength of schedule may be to blame. Unlike their competitors who venture down to Florida or Arizona for the duration of their spring break games, Midd throws themselves right into the fire. They played in both Georgia and Southern California to face quality competition on their turf. The Panther’s 3-3 record on their SoCal trip in comparison to Bates’ 0-6 shows the caliber of players that Middlebury has. While their offense has been lackluster, hitting .223 as a team before playing Williams, Justin Han ‘20 has been a diamond in the rough hitting .347 with 12 RBI for the Panthers. On the mound, NBN editor and Middlebury ace Colby Morris ‘19 has been getting the job done, already amassing 28 ⅔ IP on the young season and maintaining a stellar 2.08 ERA befoer facing Williams, which ismuch improved from his first two seasons. While Midd is slated to be a major contender for the NESCAC championship this spring, it is still clear that they have issues that need addressing both offensively and defensively in order to compete at the level they are expected to.

Trinity:

Spring Break Location: South Carolina

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Medium

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Trinity’s (6-8, 2-1) spring so far has been quite below-average. Their 2-4 record in South Carolina screams “meh” and the fact that they have already had 5 home games, a luxury most all NESCAC teams have not enjoyed, hasn’t seemed to serve them too well. With a vital series win against Tufts, the Bantams showed that they put themselves in a good position, however, to outplay the Jumbos. One guy who has been getting it done for the Bantams has been Matt Koperniak ‘20 who leads Trinity in AVG (.404) and extra base hits (6). On the bump, Trinity’s starting rotation has been fantastic. Their top 3 arms Erik Mohl ‘19, Alex Shafer ‘20, and Justin Olson ‘21 have each started at least 2 games and still maintain sub 3 ERAs. This makes Trinity’s problems all to clear, their offense in which nobody buy Koperniak is hitting over .300 and their bullpen which has been blowing games that their starters are setting up for them quite nicely. Although their preseason wasn’t too promising, it looks as if their starting pitching could carry the Bantams to the playoffs due to a down year in pitching for the rest of the conference.

Tufts:

Spring Break Location: Virginia

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

Unsurprisingly, Tufts (7-6, 1-2) is one of the only NESCAC teams to exit spring break with a winning record at 6-4. The Jumbos can flat out rake, with a team AVG of .301 and scoring 11.1 runs per game exiting spring break. The blue and brown machine seems unstoppable, but their stats are not all that they appear to be. During their classic trip to Virginia, they played an unchallenging schedule, looking to leave ranked like in 2016 and 2017. Their 6-4 record, while respectable, is an illusion. They usually exit VA with at most one loss and showed that their pitching staff is much weaker than any could’ve imagined. While RJ Hall and Brent Greeley are off to hot starts with sub-3 ERAs, Tufts lacks the bullpen depth to dominate the NESCAC. As a result, their team ERA is an abysmal 5.85. and they failed to take home a series win against Trinity who didn’t even make the NESCAC playoffs in 2017. Malcolm Nachmanoff ‘18 , Nick Falkson ‘18, and John Moschella ‘19 bolster a strong lineup that should continually allow the Jumbos to compete, even if not at their usual dominant level. Tufts, as always, is favored to win it all this year but they will not be able to do it without some vast improvement in their pen. That being said, I am looking forward to some weekend slugfests between the Jumbos and their NESCAC opponents that could very well result in some football-esque scores.

Wesleyan:

Spring Break Location: Arizona

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Weak

The Cardinals (10-6, 0-0) can be crowned spring training champs of the NESCAC despite a weak strength of schedule. A dominant 9-4 performance shows that Wesleyan is firing on all cylinders to start of the 2018 season. With a team batting average of .314, everyone is eating for the Cardinals. They have an incredible 7 starters hitting over .300 and Chase Pratt’s ‘20 statline of 412/.553/.735 is scary good but down from.520/.618/.920 before last weekend, showing that the Tucson fields aided his bat. Tanner Fulkerson ‘20 has started his season red hot too, hitting .393 with a conference leading 24 RBI. There are almost too many names to mention for Wesleyan so let’s just say that Ryan Earle ‘19, Alex Cappitelli ‘20 and Matt Jeye ‘18 also rake. Although when it comes to pitching, Wesleyan looks like any other NESCAC team with their 5.53 team ERA. Mike McCaffrey ‘19 has had a solid showing so far as the Cardinal ace, with a 3.86 ERA and 12.12 K/9 before a rough start against a great Endicott team which inflated his numbers. His strikeouts are impressive but 27 hits in 21.1 innings and a current 5.48 ERA isn’t dominant. When it comes to offense, I recommend that Wesleyan doesn’t change a thing. On the bump there are certainly problems to be resolved. Nevertheless, McCaffrey, Alec Olmstead, and Kelvin Sosa make up a solid rotation lots of Ks and lots of BBs. The impressive showing the Cardinals put up in Arizona shows that, perhaps, they can go deep into the playoff race this year, but they will likely fall significantly back to earth in the Northeast.

Williams:

Spring Break Location: California

Strength of Schedule Assessment: Strong

All I can say about the Ephs (2-10, 1-2) preseason so far is yikes. If a 1-8 non-conference record isn’t enough to sound an alarm, maybe the fact that they had a 10 game losing streak before beating Midd 5-3 in game three of their opening series. Although they were able to pick up a win on opening day against historically bad Cal Tech, I’m not convinced that Williams’ 1-8 record in SoCal is too much better than Bates’ 0-6. To be fair to the Ephs, they have had several close losses, losing 5-4 to La Verne, 2-1 to Whittier and once again 9-8 to Whittier. It is clear that Williams is missing just some little pieces to turn themselves from a 1-8 club into a NESCAC contender. One piece that has been working for them is Erik Mini ‘21 who starts off his college career hitting .306 with a .611 SLG% and team leading 2 HR. On the mound there is not much to mention for Williams with their team ERA at 7.21. Williams needs to treat their preseason like MLB Spring Training and ignore the numbers. Their series in California against Midd was their first real test of the season and they showed that their pitching is a huge issue. They allowed 29 runs in three games to Midd (20 in game one), and unless they figure something else out, they won’t be able to win 2/3 games in any NESCAC series.

Top Fantasy Picks; Preseason NESCAC Baseball Awards (Reimagined)

Editor’s Note: The goal of this post is not only to slight the NESCAC baseball awards system where there are far too few pitchers, not enough creativity, and overlap between awards, but also to explore who is going to make a big impact this coming season in the same style as MLB awards. Also I’d like to give a warm welcome to new writer, my good friend, and my former high school baseball teammate, Spencer Smead.

West Player of The Year:

SS Harry Roberson ‘18 (Amherst) Arlington, Mass.: After an outstanding 2017 campaign that yielded him 1st Team All-NESCAC honors, Amherst Junior Harry Roberson will look to follow up last year’s success with an even more impressive 2018 season. With a stat line of .359 AVG/.418 OBP/.538 SLG as well as 18 extra base hits last season (good for 2nd in the NESCAC), it is no wonder why he was All-Conference. Along with his in season success, Roberson played in both the prestigious Cape Cod league this summer (on a temp contract) as well as the Futures Collegiate Baseball League (FCBL). After finishing second in the Eastern Division with an in-conference record of 8-4, Amherst was eliminated in the NESCAC playoffs with two losses to eventual champion Tufts. With the loss of several key seniors in Yanni Thanopoulos ‘17 and Anthony Spina ‘17, Roberson will need to carry an even heavier load in order for the Amherst offense to return to its 2017 strength. Amherst’s season has begun in Florida and all eyes are on Roberson to be the heart of a dangerous Mammoth’s lineup.

East Player of The Year:

1B Nick Falkson ‘18 (Tufts) Dedham, Mass.: In all fairness, this was not a particularly difficult decision to make. Falkson, the reigning POY and opening week NESCAC Player of the week, will look to pick up where he left off with the rest of the reigning champion Jumbos. Numbers don’t lie, and Falkson’s .373 AVG, 37 RBI and 73 Total Bases are proof of his absolute dominance at the plate during 2017. Along with being an offensive threat, Falkson’s .997 Fielding % makes him Gold Glove worthy as well. Being recognized as 3rd Team All-New England by both the NEIBA and ABCA, Falkson’s 2017 accomplishments did not go under the radar. All of these accolades and statistical achievements are what lead to Falkson to be selected as a D3 Player to Watch by the Collegiate Baseball Newspaper. I am in complete agreement with the Collegiate Baseball Newspaper, whether you are a Tufts fan or despise the dominance they have held over NESCAC baseball, Falkson’s 2018 season will be one you won’t want to miss. Despite their NESCAC success, Tufts failed to pick up a win in their 2017 regional play and subsequently have dropped out of the top-25 national rankings. Falkson will hope to get the Jumbos back in the national conversation after their spring break trip to Virginia concludes.

West Cy Young:

LHP Mike McCaffrey ‘19 (Wesleyan) Warwick, R.I.: The class of 2017 had more than its fair share of extremely talented pitchers, leaving the door wide open for Cy Young candidates for the 2018 season. The frontrunner of those that remain is Wesleyan’s Mike McCaffrey. Averaging nearly 11K/9IP in 2017 it is obvious that McCaffrey has the stuff to put away even the most dangerous hitters in the NESCAC. Although his 4.11 ERA seems underwhelming for a Cy Young candidate, he proved this past offseason that he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the conference. After being named an All-Star in the Futures Collegiate Baseball League (FCBL), McCaffrey was also selected to the D3 Players to Watch List by the Collegiate Baseball Newspaper. After posting a much more impressive ERA of 1.51 in the summer of 2017 and maintaining an excellent 11.6K/9IP, McCaffrey will look to carry his summer success over to the 2018 season. McCaffrey will need to be a workhorse for the Cardinals to lift them into the playoffs this year after a 3rd Place finish in the West in 2017. McCaffrey and the Cardinals have opened their 2018 play in Arizona already and will continue their spring break trip in Tucson through March 23rd.

East Cy Young:

LHP Erik Mohl ‘19 (Trinity) Milton, Mass.: With the exit of two-time NESCAC Pitcher of the Year Speros Varinos ‘17 (Tufts), it is finally time to crown a new Cy Young in the East. Trinity’s Erik Mohl is the top candidate for the position after a fantastic season last year. Mohl’s 7 wins were good for 2nd best in the NESCAC last year and his 2.55 ERA was 3rd best in the conference. Mohl earned 2nd Team All-NESCAC honors last year with his performance and is the ace of the Bantams’ pitching staff. He will need to put up another strong season to propel Trinity to playoff contention after a 4th place finish last year in the Eastern Division. The last time that the NESCAC Pitcher of the Year did not reach the playoffs was 2007 when Tim Kiely ‘08 (Trinity) and the Bantams failed to do so. Trinity has a history of producing dominant pitching while not having the ability to put together a playoff team, but Mohl will look to break that tradition. The Bantams have already kicked off their preseason games down in South Carolina and will begin NESCAC play in a make-or-break series against Tufts on March 30th.

Reliever of the Year:

RHP Kyle Dean ‘20 (Williams) Freemont, CA: In his rookie year in the NESCAC, Williams righty Kyle Dean was extremely effective in his role out of the ‘pen. In his 26 IP he maintained a stellar 1.38 ERA and amassed a K/9 of 9.35. With Williams losing their three most called upon pitchers, one to graduation (Luke Rodino ‘17), one to a transfer (Sean Hager ‘20), and one to an injury (Johnny Lamont ’20), I would expect to see Dean’s innings total to increase immensely this upcoming season. Dean will be called upon quite frequently for the Ephs., and Williams will need effective arms in their pen if they want to enter the playoff race. In the 2017 season, seven of the Eph’s 11 losses were by two runs or less. Perhaps with a slightly more effective bullpen Williams could have pulled out some close games and improved upon their 3rd place finish in the West. Williams has begun play in Dean’s native California over spring break and has a strong strength of schedule (including a match up against defending national champion Cal Lutheran) before playing their bizarre neutral site series against Middlebury in SoCal to open up NESCAC play.

Breakout Player of the Year:

Andrew Hennings ’20 (He really needs to work on that smile)

IF Andrew Hennings ‘20 (Middlebury) Oak Park, IL.: In his limited appearances for the Panthers last season Hennings was able to make the most of his opportunities. In just 19 games played due to entering the starting lineup after the preseason and a shoulder injury, Hennings was able to put up a .388 AVG and a 1.001 OPS. As two spots have opened up in the Panther’s lineup this past offseason, expect Hennings to be a staple in the middle of their order. As his at bats increase, so should his already stellar numbers. I wouldn’t put it beyond Hennings to sneak into an All-NESCAC spot at the end of this year, so keep an eye on him throughout the season, including Midd’s preseason games in Georgia and Southern California.

DeMarini CF3 Slugger Award:

If you didn’t have a childhood and didn’t play Little League, this bat dropped bombs.

OF/P Brendan Pierce ‘18 (Trinity) Hingham, Mass.: With the pop that this Bantam produced last year, some may have thought he was using a BESR bat. Dropping a conference-leading 5 bombs in the 2017 season, Trinity Senior Brendan Pierce will return this year looking to wreak havoc on the ERA of NESCAC pitchers. With another year of experience under his belt and nothing to lose in his senior season, look for Pierce to up his power numbers even more. Traveling to the more tropical climate of South Carolina to open up the season, don’t be surprised if Pierce hits a tank or two in his preseason games to kick off what should be an impressive senior campaign.

2018 Preseason 1st Team All-NESCAC (Does not include award winners mentioned above)

C Alex Rodriguez ‘20 (Trinity) South Windsor, CT.

IF Kellen Hatheway ‘19 (Williams) Armonk, N.Y.

IF Tommy O’Hara ‘18 (Tufts) Glenview, IL

IF Jack Roberts ‘18 (Williams) Vineyard Haven, Mass.

IF Will Shackelford ‘19 (Tufts) Orleans, Mass.

IF Justin Han ‘20 (Middlebury) Vienna, VA

OF Sam Graf ‘19 (Middlebury) Loma, CO

OF Matt Treveloni ‘18 (Colby) Ashland, Mass.

OF Matt Koperniak ‘20 (Trinity) Adams, Mass.

P Connor Himstead ‘19 (Middlebury) Wellesley, Mass

P Connor Speed ’18 (Bates) San Diego, CA

P/UT Brandon Lopez ‘19 (Bowdoin) Amesbury, Mass.