Tag: Tim Patricia

The Stakes Rise: The Weekend Preview 10/18

As we move to the stretch run, the biggest games of the season are still in front of us. When Wesleyan and Amherst meet on Saturday, more than just the Little Three will be on the line. The winner will have the best victory of the year and a good shot at going undefeated.

All eyes will be on Middletown, but a lot of other games will offer intrigue as well. Bates visits Middlebury in a game that should stay close if the Bates defense can play like they did for the better part of last week. Trinity makes the trip north to Maine for a game that could be tricky against a Bowdoin team that has now won two in a row. The other two games should be close as well.

Three to Watch

Running Back Devon Carrillo ’17 (Wesleyan): The salve to Wesleyan’s running problems might be the Middletown, Connecticut native. Last week Coach Mike Whalen used Carrillo as a wildcat quarterback in certain situations. The formation gave Bates fits with the highlight being a 66 yard run in the second quarter that saw Carrillo weave his way through the Bobcat defense. He accounted for 92 of Wesleyan’s 143 rushing yards (64.3%). After a freshman year that saw him return kicks and be the second leading tackler on defense, his role has shifted to the offensive side of the ball. On the Wesleyan website he is listed as a linebacker, and he played both ways in the first two weeks of the season, but he did not record a tackle last week. If Wesleyan can’t get traction running the ball with Jesse Warren ’15 under center then they will turn to Carrillo for a spark.

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury)- The leading tackler in the NESCAC over the last two years, Patricia has seen his production dip slightly as others on the Panther defense have emerged. Yet the junior could have a big game production wise on Saturday against Bates. Linebackers like Chris Tamasi ’15 and James O’Grady ’16 have enjoyed some of their best games this year against Bates because the run heavy offense gives linebackers a wealth of opportunities to make plays. The loss of Ryan Curit ’14 and Shawn Doherty ’14 has hampered Bates so far, but Middlebury will still have to bring their best game on Saturday. The skill level all around the Panther defense is much higher than it was two years ago. The reputation of a finesse team that they gained in past years does not ring true now. Patricia has been a big part of that change.

Defensive Tackle Tom Wells ’15 (Bowdoin)- A 2013 second team All-NESCAC performer, Wells is one of three seniors on the defensive line for Bowdoin that will try to stop the vaunted Trinity running game. The last time the two teams met in Brunswick the Polar Bears held Trinity to 3.4 yards per rush, and Trinity had only a 13-10 lead at halftime. Wells has three tackles for loss on the year, and along with lineman Jake Prince ’15 and Brian Golger ’15, will take on the vaunted Trinity offensive line. Right now the Polar Bears rank last in the NESCAC in defensive yards per rush at 3.9. Against Trinity the front seven will have to step up for Bowdoin to spring an upset.

The Picks

Game of the Week: Amherst (4-0) at Wesleyan (4-0)

Last year this was the game when Wesleyan broke through and showed that they had truly joined the top echelon of the league. A late Amherst rally fell short of succeeding, and two weeks later the Cardinals were celebrating their first Little Three title in 41 years.

Yet Amherst really outplayed Wesleyan in that game but lost for two big reasons – turnovers and field position. Amherst had four turnovers (three interceptions and one fumble) to Wesleyan’s zero. Then Wesleyan converted two short fields after Amherst punts into touchdowns which proved to be the difference.

Therefore, punter/receiver Jackson McGonagle ’16 and quarterback Max Lippe ’15 are the keys for the Jeffs. McGonagle has a great leg and can boom punts when he hits it right, but he is inconsistent and too often ends up hitting the ball poorly. Lippe reclaimed his position after not playing at all in the first three weeks and changed the look of the Amherst offense. He made good reads and solidified the passing game.

We fully expect Lippe to get the nod to start, but if he struggles Alex Berluti ’17 or Reece Foy ’18 should be ready to go. Lippe went 20-35 for 195 yards and had two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Cardinals in 2013. He spread the ball around last week which is a must against a Wesleyan secondary capable of turning any mistake into six points the other way.

Amherst has likely spent a lot of time in practice getting ready for Carrillo and the wildcat, but stopping it will still not be easy. Whalen likely did not want to run the wildcat so much last week, but the lack of any other running game forced his hand. Losing LaDarius Drew ’15 has cost Wesleyan more than expected with Kyle Gibson ’15 unable to find lanes of space.

Jesse Warren ’15 has proven in the first half that he is not merely a beneficiary of a strong running game and has been the best quarterback in the NESCAC. He set a new personal record in attempts (38) and completions (24 – the first time he has had more than 20) against Bates, making big throws one third down and long.

These are the two best statistical defense in the NESCAC at this point, and both offenses carry heavy question marks. Though it is Wesleyan’s homecoming, students are on fall break so the crowd might be large but not necessarily loud. Amherst hopes that Lippe can continue his play from last week, and we think he makes enough plays to carry them to victory in a low scoring game.

Prediction: Amherst 17 over Wesleyan 13

Bates (1-3) at Middlebury (2-2): The overtime victory for Middlebury last week was thrilling and represented another step in Matt Milano’s ’16 development. Now the Panthers have to turn around and protect their home turf against Bates. No word on whether Matt Cannone ’15 will play, but Patrick Dugan ’16 is capable of making plays as well. Our mid-season Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Newson ’15 will need to play well to keep Milano and company in check. These two teams have played three common opponents and played them similarly.

Prediction: Middlebury 21 over Bates 13

Williams (1-3) at Tufts (2-2): Even though they lost at Trinity 35-14, the Jumbos won respect for how they played the Bantams in Hartford. It took Trinity a while to pull away. Williams looked much better back at home, but the Ephs need to see results soon. Tackling in space is a must for the Williams secondary as Tufts will consistently run screens to their wide receivers. QB Austin Lommen ’16 has to take some of the load off running back Alex Scyocurka ’14. Williams averages the fewest tackles for loss per game on defense and Tufts is allowing the most first downs per game in the NESCAC so the potential is there for some fireworks.

Prediction: Williams 34 over Tufts 28

Trinity (4-0) at Bowdoin (2-2): The Bantams take their roadshow north to face off against a Bowdoin team that has turned around their season after a slow start. The announcement by Head Coach Dave Caputi that he would be stepping down at the end of this year could lead to a fired up Bowdoin squad. Trinity has started slow in a lot of their games, but they wear teams down over the course of their season. The weather will be a factor especially on the grass field. Trinity will load the box to stop Tyler Grant ’17 and see if Mac Caputi ’15 can make throws to his receivers in one on one coverage.

Editors Note: the game prediction is by Joe MacDonald.

Prediction: Trinity 35 over Bowdoin 17

Hamilton (0-4) at Colby (0-4): As meetings between two 0-4 teams go, this is a much better game than you might expect. Colby has finished their murderers row of an opening schedule, but the physical toll was heavy with the Colby staff having to resort to playing some players both ways. The Colby offense should be better after having to face four great defense. Hamilton look like they have a very good player in running back LaShawn Ware ’17 who has now lead the Continentals in rushing two of the last three weeks.

Prediction: Colby 24 over Hamilton 20

Last Week: 4-1

Season Record: 17-3

Handicapping the Player of the Year Races

Predicting the potential Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year is about searching for trends in the voting pattern of the NESCAC coaches. Seven of the last eight Offensive POY were quarterbacks, and six of the last seven Defensive POY were linebackers. With that being said, this season looks like it could be very different.

Offensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Running Back LaDarius Drew ’15 (Wesleyan) – Both All-NESCAC QBs from last season are gone, and Drew looks to be the feature running back on the most explosive offense in the league. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns including a 167 yard performance against Bowdoin last year. However, he slowed down as the year went along, averaging under four yards per carry in three of his final four games. Also, Kyle Gibson ’15 will also take a lot of carries and was actually more productive per rush in 2013. Drew could run into a situation where the Wesleyan coaches decide to only give him about 15 carries a game (he averaged 20.5 in 2013), letting Gibson run more, and keeping Drew from putting up big numbers.

Contenders:

Quarterback Jesse Warren ’15 (Wesleyan) – If carries are split by Drew and Gibson then Warren could win if he repeats his efficiency from last season but with slightly more production. Another 15:3 TD:INT ratio will give him a good shot.

Wide Receiver Luke Duncklee ’15 (Colby) – The most productive receiver in the NESCAC will collect a lot of credit if Gabe Harrington ’17 has a seamless transition to the starting role. Fellow receiver Nick Joseph ’15 will also need a good season to make sure teams can’t key on Duncklee.

Quarterback Matt Cannone ’16 (Bates) – After seeing Cannone in action in the scrimmage against Colby, it was clear the junior has made major improvements to his game especially in the passing game. He will rack up both passing and rushing yards in the Bates offense.

Running Back Alex Scyocurka ’14 (Williams) – Opponents keyed on Scyocurka a lot meaning he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry, but he should be able to punish defenses with a more balanced attack this season, and he’s as healthy as he’s ever been, so perhaps he can get closer to the 5.3 yards per rush he averaged in 2012. An improvement as a team will also help his prospects, though he has to cut down on the four fumbles from a year ago.

Wide Receiver Gene Garay ’15 (Amherst)-  The only other receiver who looks to have a shot at POY honors is Garay. The senior was the leading receiver for Amherst last season and should see even more targets with Jake O’Malley graduated. He is also helped by the potential for big plays in the return game.

The Darkhorse: Running Back Chudi Iregbulem ’15 (Trinity) – Iregbulem has not seen the field very much because of all the talent in front of him, but now he steps to the forefront. He will get the majority share of carries in tandem with Jacob Rivers ’15. His 7.2 yards per carry average is inflated somewhat because it came at the end of blowouts against tired defenses. Consider his potential a tacit compliment to the entire Trinity offensive line who will deserve much of the credit if he has a great season.

Defensive Player of the Year

The Favorite: Defensive End James Howe ’16 (Williams)

Howe was the only sophomore selected to the All-NESCAC First Team in 2013. He tallied 55 tackles, which is impressive for a lineman, especially given the fact that teams would choose to run the opposite way if given the choice, seven more than the next-highest total by a lineman, Colby defensive end Caleb Harris ’15. Howe led the league in sacks with 10, 2.5 more than Harris, and was one behind Amherest linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 with 17 tackles for loss. Usually linebackers get the most recognition because they are asked to do the most on the field, but Howe is on another level compared to his peers. His pressure and dominance on the line makes the linebackers’ and defensive backs’ jobs easier, and for that he comes into 2014 as the favorite to bring home this honor.

Contenders:

Linebacker Tim Patricia ’16 (Middlebury) It’s been noted before, but the tackle numbers on defenses like Middlebury and Tufts are inflated because their offenses run so many plays. Nevertheless, Patricia is a playmaker. The former Rookie of the Year has been a force in the Middlebury for the Panthers since day one. It’s not his athletic tools that make him a great tackler, but his football IQ. Proof that his numbers are not just a product of high play totals: Patricia accounted for almost 14 percent of Middlebury’s tackles and over 13 percent of solos. Leading tackler Joey Cleary ’14 tallied just over 16 percent of Bowdoin’s tackles and just under 16 percent of solos.

Safety Jake Bussani ’14 (Wesleyan) The only thing that might keep Bussani from making a run for DPOY honors is the wealth of talent surrounding him on defense, but the graduate has made the All-NESCAC First Team in three straight seasons. His stats weren’t as impressive as in the previous two seasons, but that doesn’t mean that his play has tapered off.

Defensive End Caleb Harris ’15 (Colby) We already mentioned Harris above, but it’s worth reiterating that Harris was the cornerstone of the best run defense in the league last season, and was only six off the pace for most tackles on his own team.

Linebacker Chris Tamasi ’15 (Amherst) Much like the next name on this list, what sets Tamasi apart is his ability to penetrate the backfield. Tamasi led the NESCAC with 18 tackles for loss and had four sacks, tying with teammate Ned Deane ’15 for the most among linebackers.

Linebacker Mike Weatherby ’14 (Trinity) A year after making the All-NESCAC First Team for the first time, Weatherby is back for a fifth year at the heart of the Bantams defense. Weatherby is great at stopping the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, as he racked up just one sack in 2013 but 11 tackles for loss.

Cornerback Brian Dones ’15 (Trinity) It’s tough to leave out Dones’ teammate, safety Mike Mancini ’15, but the corner might be the best pass defender in the league. His three interceptions and 11 pass breakups were both tops in the NESCAC, and his 1.8 pass breakups per game was tied for 11th in the nation. Teams might choose to throw away from Dones this year, but expect him to still make some big plays.

The Darkhorse: Safety/Linebacker Gilbert Brown ’15 (Bates) Brown fills the “down safety” position in Bates’ 3-3 stack defense, a position that requires a great deal of versatility. This allows Brown to be a factor in both the run and pass game, and on occasion he will be called on to create pressure on the quarterback. He racked up 42 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two interceptions and two pass breakups in 2013. Bates’ defense should be much improved this season with a bunch of starters returning, and Brown could elevate his game and become a game plan player around the NESCAC.

Anyone you think we missed? Let us know in the comments.

Middlebury Team Preview – Panthers Look to Find Their Matt Saracen

2013 Record: 7-1

Returning Starters: 15 (5 offense, 8 defense, 2 specialists)

Offensive Overview:

In case you hadn’t heard, there was some pretty good quarterback play in Middlebury over the last couple years. Mac Foote’s name is all over the NESCAC record book, right alongside his predecessor Donnie McKillop. The question now is whether there is a young Panther ready to step up and be the next great NESCAC quarterback. Middlebury’s one-back, spread offense depends heavily on good quarterback play, and three signal-callers are currently in the hunt for the starting job. Each has played well and shown improvement this preseason, and the competition is still up in the air. Matt Milano ’16 served as the primary back up in 2012 and 2013, but had just seven passing attempts in 2013. Eric Bertino ’15 fell behind Milano on the depth chart last season, but one more year of familiarity with the playbook will help him in this battle. Youngster Jake Stalcup ’17, who doubles as a reliever on the baseball team, has the best size of the group at 6’5″, and is absolutely a factor as well. The coaching staff probably won’t make a decision on its starter until the week before the team’s season opener.

There are further question marks on offense. All-NESCAC tight end Billy Sadik-Khan is gone to graduation, and explosive playmaker Joey Zelkowitz ’17 has followed the path of multiple two-sport stars before him at Middlebury and hung up the football cleats in order to focus on lacrosse. The offensive line has two returning starters in Blake Shapskinsky ’15 and Dan Finta ’15, and BC transfer Win Homer should provide stability at left tackle, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Whoever wins the QB battle will have talented and experienced receivers at his disposal with All-NESCAC First-Teamer Matt Minno ’16, Second-Teamer Brendan Rankowitz ’15 and Grant Luna ’17 all back. Ryan Hislop ’15 is the favorite to see the majority of the carries early on, but he has yet to show consistency in his career.

Defensive Overview:

The opening day defense will have more experience than its counterparts. Tim Patricia ’16 is among the best tacklers in the NESCAC, and indeed leads the league over the past two years in total tackles. There isn’t tremendous size on the defensive line, and coach Bob Ritter tends to rotate bodies through those positions in order to keep legs fresh. At the back, Matt Benedict ’15 is a strong all-around safety with a lot of experience, and Nate Leedy ’17 burst on the scene last year at cornerback and instantly became one of the NESCAC’s best, tallying one pick and seven pass break ups. Patricia and Benedict each made the All-NESCAC Second Team in 2013. The defense was above average last year, ranking fourth in points per game allowed despite seeing more snaps than any other team in the league, but will need to be even better while the offense goes through a transition.

Courtesy of Middlebury Campus
Courtesy of Middlebury Campus

Three Big Questions:

1. How great was Mac Foote’s impact?

The Middlebury offense always provides the opportunity for a few great individual seasons. But you still need talented players in order to be successful. The best player on the field for Middlebury over the past three seasons has been Foote, and it’s impossible to know right now if Minno and the rest of the receiving corp can repeat last year’s production with a new wing under center. Will Middlebury be able to hold onto the ball for long drives? Or will the defense be playing with a lot of short fields behind them? Can the offense repeat the level of red zone efficiency that it displayed in 2013? The ramifications of Foote’s departure are multiple, and his replacement will need to play at a similar level in order to come close to again earning a share of the NESCAC crown.

2. Can the defense create big plays?

Middlebury employed a bend-don’t-break strategy in 2013, allowing the fifth-most yards per game but only 16.2 points per game. It worked for the Panthers last year, but it is a dangerous way to play defense. Furthermore, the Panthers would like to improve on the eight interceptions and five fumble recoveries they garnered last season.

3. Is Middlebury here to stay?

The Panthers have three championships since 2000, but two of those (2000 and 2013) were one-third shares, with the only outright title coming in 2007. After a 4-4 2011, Middlebury has gone 7-1 in back-to-back seasons. Can the Panthers maintain their current level of success? It will come down to whether Coach Ritter and the rest of his staff have brought in enough talent to reload given the departure of so many impact players on the offensive side of the ball.

Team MVP: Middlebury will rely more heavily on its defense than in past years, and Nate Leedy has the ability to shut down a team’s best receiver. Cornerbacks don’t often get this kind of recognition, with the majority of the glory on defense going to the linebacking corps, but Leedy might be the most talented Panther on the defensive side of the ball.

Biggest Game: Oct. 25 at Trinity

Middlebury opens the season against tri-champion Wesleyan and meets Amherst, the third member of the championship trio, in Week 3, but both of those games come at home. While the first three weeks will tell us a lot about this year’s Panthers team, the most interesting game for Middlebury will be its Week 6 trip to Hartford. Trinity’s winning streak is well-documented, and assuming that Middlebury doesn’t sweep Wesleyan and Amherst (and the rest of its early season games), the Panthers will need a win at Trinity to stay in the championship hunt.

Best Tweet of the Offseason: From Middlebury freshman Logan Shrout, who has already figured out the best part of college sports.

The 2014 Panthers still have plenty of talent on the roster, and will undoubtedly have some newcomers make an impact. Is it enough to compete for a championship once again? Only time will tell.

10 Biggest Games of 2014

Make no mistake, even though coaches say every game is important, certain ones mean just a little bit more. If the NESCAC had a TV deal, these would be the games that would be on national television.

10. September 20: Hamilton at Tufts

When these two teams meet in Week 1, you can be sure that they will both be hungry for a victory. Tufts of course has the longer losing streak, but Hamilton has endured a tough couple of years as well with all the turnover in the coaching staff. Both teams bring back a wealth of starters (14 for Hamilton and an astounding 21 for Tufts). The edge goes to Tufts because of the long trip Hamilton has to take and that Hamilton is installing a new offensive system.

9. September 27: Trinity at Williams

This is a benchmark game for these two teams. Trinity will have to prove they can replace all the talent they lost on offense while Williams tries to convert their close loses into real wins. Last year Trinity won on a touchdown pass to AJ Jones ’14 with 18 seconds left. How settled each quarterback situation is could be the difference. If Trinity still hasn’t settled on someone to replace Sonny Puzzo then Williams could use this game to jumpstart their season.

8. September 20: Bates at Amherst

Another season opener that offers intrigue all over the place. Expect this one to be very low scoring because of the loss of Ryan Curit ’14 and Shawn Doherty ’14 for Bates. The Bobcats have reason for optimism because of their wealth of seniors and the questions around the Amherst offense. The Jeffs will have the advantage of having multiple weeks to prepare for Bates triple option so Bates coach Mark Harriman might have to throw more often in order to keep Bates unpredictable.

7. September 20: Wesleyan at Middlebury

On paper this is the best week 1 matchup given that both teams went 7-1 last year. While we were robbed of seeing Mac Foote face off against the Wesleyan defense, this game has promise as well. We still don’t know who the starting QB will be week 1 for Middlebury, but we expect them to still throw the ball a lot. The other side of the ball is where the game will be decided. The Middlebury defense has been very young the last couple of years, but players like Tim Patricia ’16, Matt Benedict ’15, and Nate Leedy ’17 are out to prove the defense is now the strength of this team.

6. November 1: Wesleyan at Williams

We already wrote about how last year’s game could effect the showdown in November. Last year Wesleyan might have taken the Ephs somewhat lightly, but this year the game is circled on calendars everywhere. Depth is where Wesleyan really differentiates themselves from other NESCAC teams, and at this point in the season that could be the difference. If James Howe ’16 or Alex Syocurka ’14 gets hurt, Williams doesn’t have the players to replace him, but Wesleyan is much more of a next guy up situation if there are injuries.

5. October 25: Middlebury at Trinity

Trinity gets the chance to avenge their first loss of last season at home. While we do think Middlebury is destined for a slight downturn this season, their talent and scheme makes them a dangerous opponent for anyone. Middlebury will make defenses sweat again even if they are as proficient in the passing game. Trinity only gained 3.3 yards per rush in last years game, and a repeat performance of that type will keep the game close.

4.  October 18: Amherst at Wesleyan

Both teams should be 4-0 if they beat Middlebury in their respective early season matchups. Suddenly Wesleyan turns from the upstart into defending Little 3 champion. The top four games on this list are all very close, and an argument could be made for any of them deciding the NESCAC race. Amherst will have to force turnovers in this game to have a chance. They would like a low scoring game where kicker Phillip Nwosu ’15 can have a big impact. The matchup between the Wesleyan running game and Amherst front seven will be a treat as well.

3. November 1: Amherst at Trinity

Trinity felt like they gave this game away in 2013, and Amherst will have a tough time competing on Trinity’s turf. At this point of the season, Trinity should have figured things out and resemble the Trinity teams we are accustomed to. Amherst will have to possess the ball for a good majority of the game in order to slow the game down. If Trinity is going to lose any home game, this is probably the one, but the odds are that the vaunted home winning streak will continue.

2. November 8: Williams at Amherst

The Biggest Little Game is still the most important game on these rivals’ calendar, no matter what their records are. The big change this year is that the game will start at 4 PM and finish under the lights. The normally large crowd should be even louder because of that. And of course in a rivalry game like this one, you can throw most common sense out the window. Current Williams seniors have never won against Amherst so there are sure to be some emotional pregame speeches before the game.

1. November 8: Trinity at Wesleyan

Yes, this game is now the highlight of the NESCAC calendar, and it could become the premier event year in and year out. Williams vs Amherst will always beat this game in terms of sheer pageantry, but these two teams have the most talent. If Williams-Amherst is Ohio State-Michigan, then Trinity-Wesleyan is Florida-Florida State. It’s hard to say exactly how this game will look since it is two months way, but it will be close. The fact everything builds to the final week of the NESCAC schedule is great. It’s like a de facto bowl season and rivalry week rolled into one crazy Saturday.