#20 Tufts (21-6, 9-2, NESCAC Champions)
Tufts secured their first NESCAC Championship in program history this past weeked, surviving a grueling double-overtime game against Colby in what will surely go down as an instant classic. Despite leading by as many as seventeen points late in the first half, the Jumbos simply could not put away the feisty Mules; maintaining a nine-point advantage with just under eight minutes remaining in regulation, Tufts allowed the visitors to surge ahead on a 15-2 run, capped off by Sam Jefferson’s three-ball with 2:51 on the clock. With the Jumbos trailing by one with eleven ticks left, a missed layup by senior leader Eric Savage ‘20 seemed to signal a potential sour ending in the team’s journey to capture a NESCAC Championship on their own floor. However, Savage was given an opportunity to redeem himself after Matt Hanna ‘21 calmly knocked down two free throws to stretch Colby’s advantage to three with six seconds remaining. The decision made by Coach Damien Strahorn to not foul was quite puzzling (although it is easier to say this behind a keyboard and not in the heat of the moment), but it nevertheless came back to bite the Mules as Savage drained a triple to send the game to overtime. The teams traded leads back-and-forth during the first few minutes, and Savage once again came up big with another three-ball to knot the game at 83 with 52 seconds left. The Mules answered thanks to Will King’s layup, but it was the Jumbos who once again refused to quit; Savage’s missed jumper was followed up by Dylan Thoerner ‘23, who was fouled with virtually zeros on the game clock. In arguably the most intense atmosphere the rookie had experienced in his playing career to this date, Thoerner cooly sunk both free throws to force double overtime. In the final five minutes, big man Luke Rogers ‘21 gave the Jumbos the lead for good with a layup followed by a successful three-point play, and with a plethora of converted free throws down the stretch, the Tufts’ players, coaches and fans erupted with joy as the seconds ran down, knowing they had finally emerged victorious.
How they Got Here
All roads to success for the Jumbos lead through the duo of Savage and Rogers, who averaged a combined 32.7 ppg during the regular season. The two compliment each other very well, as opposing teams are normally left with no choice but to provide help defense with whoever is guarding Rogers down low, allowing for extra driving lanes and an extended perimeter to shoot from for Savage and the rest of the Jumbos’ sharpshooters. The veteran leadership from Savage, the only senior on the Jumbos’ roster, is extremely impressive considering where the Jumbos are now compared to a season ago. Despite flashing glimpses of their potential such as their shocking upset against top-seeded Middlebury in the NESCAC Quarterfinals, the 2019 season saw Tufts finish just 12-14 with a 4-6 record in-conference. The maturation and focus that was required of this team in order to regularly compete at the highest level was met with open arms, and the reward is the team’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2016.
While the offense certainly had its moments, the defense was key concerning Tufts’ successful path to securing a regional host. The Jumbos boast one of the stingiest defensive units in the conference, allowing opponents to shoot just 41% from the field. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (12.4 per game) but rather grind down opponents by keeping them outside the paint, leaving defenses frustrated after forcing contested shot after shot. And despite the lack of turnovers as a whole, steals have not been a problem to come by; all the guards have very active hands, constantly pressuring the ball-handlers and making life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition.
How they Lose
The Jumbos certainly have flaws on both sides of the ball. On the offensive end, poor free-throw shooting has plagued this team all season long. Quite frankly, it is a minor miracle they lost just six games while shooting 64% from the line as a team. Amongst the nine members of the team who average twelve minutes or more during a contest, only three of them (Brennan Morris ‘21 – 84.5%, Tyler Aronson ‘22 – 83.1%, and Thoerner – 78.3%) are reliable from the charity stripe. The other six? 56.3%. I have mentioned this in the past, but Rogers in particular can be exploited for his poor shooting efforts (79-171 from the free throw line this season, good for 46.2%) late in games as teams begin to foul intentionally.
Another common factor that seems to reoccur when the Jumbos drop a contest is the number of fouls the team picks up. As good as the defensive unit is, Tufts leads the NESCAC in fouls committed by a considerable margin with nearly 21 fouls per game. This essentially means that not only will the respective opponent experience a bonus opportunity in each half of the contest, but (more than likely) they will eclipse ten fouls and get to the double bonus. As Tufts heads to the Big Dance, opposing teams with deeper rosters will look to use the Jumbos’ aggressiveness against them and draw contact in order to pile up both the fouls on Tufts and the free throw attempts. Being in a familiar environment, however, should be beneficial for the NESCAC Champions, who have lost just one game in front of their faithful supporters this calendar year.
**Speaking of faithful supporters, shame on Johns Hopkins for hosting a regional and barring fans from partaking in the event. At the very least, the University should have notified the NCAA about their stance regarding the coronavirus and public sporting events sooner, so that the next highest seed could host and this type of situation would not occur. Cowards, all of you.
The Competition
Western Connecticut St. (20-7, 12-4, Little East Conference Champions)
The champs out of the Little East Conference started out slow, losing three out of four conference games in early January; however, they caught fire and closed out the season winning ten of eleven, including seven in a row. While the offense is nothing out of this world, the Colonials boast an extremely deep roster – thirteen players average at least eight minutes a game. Three players average double figures, led by senior forward Fenton Bradley ‘20 (16.1 PPG, 6.3 REB/G). Ahmod Privott ‘22 (10.6 PPG), Jaheim Young ‘23 (10.3 PPG), and first-team all name selection Legend Johnson ‘21 (8.6 PPG) round out the top scoring threats for Western Connecticut St. In all honesty, the Jumbos should have no problem taking care of the Colonials: after all, Bradley is the team’s tallest player at 6’7’’, and even if he were to limit Rogers in some fashion, the Colonials’ supporting cast severely lacks the height and size to continuously bang down low. I expect a bit of nerves from the Jumbos to begin, but by the second half, things should start flowing. Give me the Jumbos by 15+.
Writer’s Pick: Tufts 78 – Western Connecticut 62
The Other Two:
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (23-4, 17-1, at-large bid)
If Tufts advances to the round of 32, Rensselaer looks like the odds-on favorite to be their next opponent. Prior to falling to Ithaca College, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute was previously the 24th-ranked team in the nation. After an 0-2 start to the season, RPI thoroughly dominated their schedule and only dropped two contests the rest of the way (both to Ithaca College). The tone-setter for this squad is most certainly their defense, allowing a mere 60.6 PPG. Tufts will most certainly have their work cut out for them on the offensive end, as the Engineers force over 16 turnovers per game. Similarly to Western Connecticut St., the offensive unit will not strike a ton of fear into Tufts’ hearts, but they do possess a slew of players that can create their own shots. Patrick Mahoney ‘21 leads all scorers on the Engineers with 15.1 points per contest and chips in with 5.7 rebounds/game. Mason Memmelaar ‘22 (13.2 PPG, 5.5 REB/G) and Dom Black ‘22 (11.4 PPG, 6.2 REB/G) round out the other two reliable scorers, while Johnny Angbazo (43.5% from three) ‘23 and Will Rubin ‘23 (9.2 PPG, 39.1% from three) will absolutely knock down shots if not given the proper attention.
New England College (21-6, 10-2, New England Collegiate Conference Champions)
The Pilgrims enter the NCAA Tournament in brilliant form, winners of ten straight (seven of those by double digits). What’s more is that they already own a victory over the Jumbos, a 59-56 defensive battle that saw Tufts turn the ball over 23 times. The game was quite uncharacteristic for both teams involved, but was especially so for the Pilgrims, who average close to 90 points per game. New England College features five different players who average double figures, led by Izaiah Winston-Brooks ‘20 (18.0 PPG, 5.3 REB/G) and Jamal Allen ‘22 (15.0 PPG). They love to drive into the lane and get to the free throw line, averaging right around 16 attempts per game. The defense is below average, allowing over 80 points a game and struggles to rebound the ball. It really is quite puzzling that Tufts fell to a team with this poor of a defensive unit, but upon realizing this was a non-conference meeting during the normal conference slate, the sloppy play is not totally surprising. If they meet again, Tufts should be able to re-enforce their defensive superiority and limit the Pilgrims’ talented weapons, but this is certainly a team to keep an eye on as a potential sleeper in this regional.
