Josh Chery – Nothing But NESCAC

The Old and the New: Colby vs. Amherst Semifinal Preview

#2 Colby (23-2, 8-2) vs. #3 Amherst (18-7, 7-3), 7pm, Medford, MA

Overview

The Mammoths come into this game very hot, winning 7 of 8 games over the past month. Recently they have been led by emerging star Garrett Day ’21 who is averaging over 20 points per game during this stretch and has now found himself a spot in the starting lineup. Historically Amherst has made their living by playing fundamentally sound basketball, being careful with the ball and playing gritty, hard-nosed defense. Well, this year is no exception. Right now the Mammoths allow the fewest points of anyone in the league and they turn the ball over less than anyone besides Middlebury. In their first meeting Amherst held Colby – the league’s highest scoring team by a large margin – to just 69 points on 37.5% shooting, however they also turned the ball over 22 times. They also shot 58.9% from the floor in that game, which is their second highest single-game shooting percentage of the season. Last time around the Mammoths may have been able to shoot their way out of some carelessness with the ball, but I expect them to put extra emphasis on sticking to their game plan and not let the Mules speed the game up too much.

I don’t think it’s fair to say that Colby has struggled recently, but things definitely haven’t been all sunshine and rainbows over the past few weeks like they were at the start of the season. The Mules are still 5-2 over their last 7 games, but when you get off to an 18-0 start any loss makes it look like you’re slowing down. One of the biggest question marks in this game is the status of Sam Jefferson ’20, who went down with an ankle injury 3 weeks ago against Hamilton. Jefferson is one of the most efficient and talented players in the league and still has a realistic shot at winning NESCAC Player of the Year despite missing several games. He didn’t play at all over the 4 games after his injury, but last weekend Coach Strahorn tried sending him out there during the Mules’ triple overtime victory over Bates in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately Jefferson immediately had to go back to the bench because it essentially looked like he was playing on one leg. If Coach Strahorn thought that there was a chance Jefferson could play last week, perhaps an extra week of rest and healing is all it will take for him to at least be able to contribute a good chunk of minutes. Colby has an array of guards who can spread the floor and shoot the crap out of the ball, but Sam Jefferson ’20 is an important piece of the puzzle and they certainly haven’t been the same team without him.

Amherst X-Factor

F Eric Sellew ’20 (13.3 PPG, 6.9 REB/G, 3.4 AST/G, 53.6% FG, 23 MIN/G)

There’s no doubt that Sellew is the X-Factor for the Mammoths in this one. Colby’s number one problem is that they lack size, so the fact that Sellew is 6’7” means that he should feast on the glass all night. He’s also a versatile scorer and his long wingspan makes him very difficult to guard around the basket. A shoulder injury in mid-January sidelined him for a few games, but it seems as though he’s back to full health. In their first meeting with the Mules Sellew struggled a bit, turning the ball over 7 times and only grabbing 4 rebounds (he did score 15 points). Amherst still won that game, but they can’t expect the same result if Sellew isn’t at his very best. With his injury in the rear-view mirror, he’s ready to lead the Mammoths to yet another deep postseason run.

Colby X-Factor

G Will King ’23 (9.7 PPG, 4.6 REB/G, 5.8 AST/G, 50% FG)

King could not have picked a better time to have his best game of the season, netting 32 points, hauling in 11 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists in the Mules triple overtime victory over Bates in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. This guy has been one of the most impressive rookies in the league all season, but if he’s able to elevate his play even more in the postseason then Colby is primed for a deep playoff run. King is the NESCAC leader in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio, so we know he has great court vision and he’s careful with the ball. He’s also the tallest player in the starting lineup (albeit 6’5”), so he’ll need to continue hitting the boards to help with rebounding duties. His points per game average is a bit deceiving because he started the year off a bit slow scoring wise. Over the last 15 games he has reached double figures 10 times, most recently with his 32-point outburst last weekend. With everything else he does on the court, if King can increase his scoring totals then he’s going to really make an impact down the stretch.

Final Thoughts

Obviously the health of Sam Jefferson ’20 is a huge factor in this one, but I expect it to be a battle either way. NESCAC Tournament games have a flare for the dramatic and no one knows that better than these two teams who are both coming off overtime quarterfinal matchups. Garrett Day ’21 has emerged as the star over the second half of the season for Amherst and he’s been very hot as of late, but they’ll need guys like Fru Che ’21 and Josh Chery ’20 to step up as well if they want to keep up with Colby’s high octane offense. The Mules’ five-man backcourt of Jefferson, Noah Tyson ’22, Matt Hanna ’21, Alex Dorion ’20, and Will King ’23 can score on you in a hurry, but they had a season-low shooting percentage in their first go around against the Mammoths. Conversely, Amherst had their second highest field goal percentage of the season last time against the Mules. I wouldn’t bet on either of those happening again, particularly since they’ve each seen each other once and have made some adjustments heading into this meeting. Colby’s reliance on the 3-ball makes them really hard to trust in the postseason, even with a 23-2 record over the course of the season. Combine that with Jefferson’s status being up in the air, I think the third-seeded Mammoths are the favorites in this one.

Writer’s Pick: Amherst 83 – Colby 78

Amherst College 2019 Basketball Season Preview

Amherst Mammoths Basketball Season Preview

2017-2018 record: 16-10 (overall), 6-4 (conference)

Losing on a buzzer beater is never easy; losing to a Little Three rival in the playoffs on a buzz beater is even more devastating. It is a new year, however. The pain from last year may still be present in some of the veteran players, but each Mammoth comes into the season with a mindset that they’re going to win the league. Amherst, a perennial NESCAC powerhouse, is reloaded and ready to take revenge on Wesleyan and other rivals.

2018-2019 projected record: 17-7 (overall), 6-4 (conference)

Amherst has already demonstrated that they have the fire power to compete with anyone thus far. Three wins, and two of those in triple digits, illustrate the ease in which Amherst scores. These wins are impressive, but they’re against non-league foes. With official NESCAC basketball conference games starting in January, Amherst will have confidence going into January if they continue their strong November run into December.

The Mammoths are off to a hot start in their 2019 preseason.

Key losses:

G/F Johnny McCarthy

GP: 26

PTS/G: 11.9

FG %: 43.4

3PT %: 30.3

FT %: 65.1

REB/G: 7.7

A/G: 3.0

The 6’ 5” Nobles product capped off his Amherst career with a historic 2017-2018 season. McCarthy was a solid all around player, who was as active on the glass as he was scoring buckets. Even though the three point and free throw percentage don’t necessarily show such a significant impact, McCarthy’s willingness to scrap with big boys such as Wesleyan’s Nathan Krill and Jordan Sears shows how much he will be missed. The twelve points a game, second highest on the team, will be a void that will need to be filled by the squad this season.

G Michael Riopel

GP: 26

PTS/G:12.7

FG %:46.2

3PT %:43.0

FT %:74.2

REB/G: 5.3

A/G: 2.1

Similar to McCarthy, Riopel brought great length to the Amherst lineup. The 6’ 5” guard, sitting two hundred pounds of lean muscle, was the top Amherst scorer. The numbers, especially the field goal percentage from two and three, standout. Riopel was an efficient scorer who made tough shots in his phenomenal Amherst career. The veteran guard had a solid handle, and didn’t have a huge turnover problem. His leadership ability on and off the court will be sorely missed.

Projected starting five:

Grant Robinson:

GP: 24

PTS/G: 9.4

FG %3: 6.2

3PT %: 33.7

FT %: 69.6

REB/G: 3.4

A/G: 3.4

Grant Robinson came onto the scene last season as a young guard who was poised to lead a championship contending team. Sound familiar Austin Hutcherson fans? It’s tough to compare Hutcherson and Robinson beyond that, though. Robinson stands about three inches shorter, which makes him less of a threat guarding bigger guys. Hutcherson is definitely a better fit in Wesleyan’s switch happy pick and roll defense because of this. Robinson, however, obviously isn’t a Wesleyan Cardinal. He plays in an Amherst system that was led by Riopel and McCarthy last year. Robinson put up stats that makes you think he could be one of the NESCAC’s next elite guards. Amherst will always be one of the top dogs in the conference, and Robinson will be one of the reasons why

Josh Chery:

GP: 21

PTS/G: 4.8

FG %: 37.5

3PT %: 30.0

FT %: 51.5

REB/G: 3.6

A/G: 0.9

I feel like the following statement is the antithesis to everything I believe in (and the teachings of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball): Josh Chery’s stats don’t tell the whole story. Allow me to elaborate. His points per game, mediocre assists, rebounds, and poor free throw percentage don’t make you think he would be an impact player on an Amherst team. He averaged only fourteen minutes a game last year. He isn’t one of those guys that will wow you with his shot, but he physical presence will scare a lot of scorers. Chery, at two hundred and fifteen pounds, can defend any position. He’s got the athleticism to stay with guards, and has the strength to compete with any big man. I’m interested to see how this plays out.

Fru Che

GP: 26
PTS/G: 8.2
FG %: 48.7
3PT %: 34.4
FT %: 36.4
REB/G: 3.9
A/G: 0.8

Che, a Brooks School product, is another athletic forward that will help Amherst defensively this season. As a side note, Brooks seemed to always defeat Rivers, my high school, in league championship games during my time at Rivers. There is still salt in the wound. Che is an efficient scorer, as seen by his numbers from last season. His free throw shooting was a liability. Late in games, without McCarthy and Riopel, Amherst needs to have confidence in guys who will step the the line and make big buckets. Let’s see if Che is up to the challenge.

Eric Sellew:

GP: 21

PTS/G: 8.5

FG %: 48.6

3PT %: 21.4

FT %: 73.3

REB/G: 5.9

A/G: 1.4

Standing at 6’ 7,” Sellew is one of the tallest guy in the starting lineup for Amherst. He’s a solid big man. He has the strength to go one on one with Wesleyan’s JR Bascom or Jordan James, a highly anticipated matchup that we’re sure to see this year. With a league and a game that has transitioned from a half court set to more of transition offense, I’m interested to see how Sellew will fit this. He’s a positive player for Amherst without a question, and has good footwork both up top and in the paint. If Amherst wins the league crown this year, it’s because Sellew became one of the best rebounders in the conference, averaging around nine to ten.

C Joe Schneider:

GP:26

PTS/G:6.5

FG %:52.1

3PT %-

FT %: 61.3

REB/G:5.2

A/G: 1.2

I’m a rower, so I’m used to being around guys in the six-five to six-eight range. Joe Schneider is a giant compared to most of my teammates. Standing at six-ten Schneider is one of the biggest guys in the entire league. This length not only affects shots and shot selection, but can disrupt entire offenses who rely on half court pick and roll sets. Schneider can definitely move his feet at his size, but anyone that size will have difficulty staying in front of elite athletes. Schneider is a proven commodity in the Amherst system; he knows how to play and win effectively. Those long arms and blocking ability instill fear in some guards, but I’m not entirely confident that he will be able to stay in front of the quickest. We shall see.

Everything else:

Schneider and the Mammoths have a lot to prove without McCarthy and Riopel.

There are teams, in any sport, that will put a quality product on the field or the court any year regardless of talent level. Coach David Hixon has been coaching the Amherst squad for forty-one years. He’s been a champion in more ways than one both in the league and on the national level. Is this one of the most talented Amherst teams to be assembled? No, not even lose I don’t think. They have talented players, yes, but I don’t believe they have a starting five that will wow you, or bench players that will make you think this is one of the great Amherst teams. Remember me saying, though, that Amherst will never be blown out. That’ll never happen. The program is too rich and seasoned to lose any game by double digits. Robinson will lead them, and they will be very solid. I personally can’t wait for the Amherst vs Wesleyan or Amherst vs Williams matchups this year. Those games are special to watch as a sports fan.

A conversation with Grant Robinson:

Andrew Martin: Which losses from the senior class last year will be felt the most, and what additions from this year’s freshman class will offset those losses?

Grant Robinson: Having lost Johnny McCarthy and Michael Riopel, we lose our two leading scorers from last year. Because of this, we need guys to step up and take initiative to score the ball more so than they may have last year. I think Will Phelan and Devonn Allen are two freshmen that can have an immediate impact for us this year and help offset our losses. They’ve already shown great improvement and ability early in the season.

AM: How will Amherst reclaim its spot as the best in the league?

GB: I think to reclaim our spot as #1 in the conference we have to continue to have a chip on our shoulder throughout the entire season. A lot of people don’t have high expectations from us this year, but as a team, we will use this to our advantage and push each other to prove that we can be even better than we were last year.

Defense Wins Championships: Wesleyan @ Amherst Men’s Basketball Semifinal Preview

Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3, #5 Seed) @ Amherst (17-8, 7-3 #1 Seed), 5:30 PM, Amherst, MA

Overview:

As opposed to the offense heavy three point barrage we expect in the Tufts-Hamilton game (detailed beautifully by Colby here,) this should be a gritty, defensive battle. Both these teams pride themselves on their defense. Amherst’s most impressive win of the season was a 75-49 drubbing of Hamilton in which they held the Continentals to 29.4% shooting. That game was the jumping off point for their run to the number one seed. Since then, they are 7-2 and have won their last three games, including wins over Middlebury and Williams. But their most exciting win of this hot stretch was the last one, a thrilling 71-70 win over Bowdoin in the quarterfinals. In that game, Amherst overcame a rough game from Michael Riopel ‘18 thanks to a First Team level performance from Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (22 points) and contributions from several bench players, most notably Josh Chery ‘20, who scored 11 points and hit the game winning layup with 3.4 seconds left. What this Amherst team lacks in star power they make up for in depth and heart.

Amherst’s defense is the key to their recent success.

Of course, the same can be said for Wesleyan. One of Amherst’s losses since that shellacking of Hamilton is to the Cardinals, a 71-57 road loss in which McCarthy and Riopel went 3-20 from the field. Wesleyan’s season is littered with these types of games. The dominate defensively, shut down what the opponent does best, and the offense does just enough to get by. Their quarterfinal game against Middlebury was another great example. While Jack Daly ’18 did have a nice game (20 points and six assists,) the Cardinals stifled Middlebury’s inside game, holding the dangerous forward combo of Nick Tarantino ’18, Eric McCord ’19 and Adisa Majors ’18 to 6-19 shooting. Jordan Sears ’19 had 8 blocks, and with Kevin O’Brien ’19 and his army of tall, long-armed guards on the perimeter, it is nearly impossible to get into the paint and score against Wesleyan. Amherst will have to hit some threes to spread the Cardinals defense. And Wesleyan will have to do the same against Amherst.

Key Player For Amherst: F Josh Chery ’20

Josh Chery ’20
(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

As I said earlier, Chery was the hero against Bowdoin. With 5 seconds left on the clock, Chery got the ball on the right wing, drove to the rim, and finished a tough layup with 3.4 seconds left. Chery certainly wasn’t the first option,as Johnny McCarthy was lighting it up at that point, but he wasn’t the last one either. Chery has been one of the major keys to Amherst’s recent hot streak. He’s gone over double figures three times in the last four games, and has averaged 25 minutes per game over that stretch after going over 20 minutes just once all season up to that point. At 6’4″ and 215 pounds, he is big and strong enough to guard multiple positions, a huge plus against Wesleyan due to the size of the Cardinal guards. He makes a huge difference on the defensive end, grabbing four steals against Williams and pulling down eight rebounds against Middlebury. And ask Bowdoin how he is finishing at the rim. One thing to watch for is his foul shooting: he’s 0-7 in the last two games. Chery is the ideal player to have on the court against Wesleyan, and, since Wesleyan has proven themselves capable of locking up Riopel and McCarthy, Chery and the rest of the bench mob are the keys to Amherst’s chances.

Key Player for Wesleyan: F Nathan Krill ‘18

Nathan Krill ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

The starting power forward on the “Feels Like They’ve Been in College for 2o Years” All Stars, Krill has been in this position before. However, he has never been as important to the team’s offense. Of course, they won last weekend with him only having three points, but they won’t be able to rely on Antone ’21 Walker putting up 11 off the bench and Kevin O’ Brien ’19 scoring 17. Walker is a great talent, but he is streaky, and O’Brien isn’t really a go to scorer. Krill is Wesleyan’s most dangerous pick and roll finisher. He can step behind the three point line and hit, or he can use his quickness and ball handling skills to finish at the rim. Throughout Krill’s career, this combination of skills has made him one of the hardest players to guard in the league when he’s hot. Key word: “when.” Krill has always been incredibly streaky (see his 24 points against Bowdoin versus 3 the next game against Bowdoin.) Krill only had four points in Wesleyan’s win over Amherst during the regular season, but this a whole new Amherst team. Wesleyan needs their stars to shine bright on Saturday, starting with Krill.

Final Thoughts:

Bowdoin was certainly far more skilled than your average eight seed, but Amherst still should have been able to put them away earlier. The Mammoths were uncharacteristically bad defending the three, allowing Bowdoin to shoot 10-28 from outside (and many of those misses were open looks.) Much of Wesleyan’s offense relies on three point shooting, particularly from Jordan Bonner ’19 and Hutcherson. Amherst will have to do a better job running those two off of the three point lie than they did with Bowdoin’s Jack Simonds ’19 and Liam Farley ’19. They will also have to contend with pick and rolls featuring either Bonner or Hutcherson and Krill. Since each of those players are dangerous shooters, the slightest defensive mistake can lead to an open three pointer. Amherst’s best defense here would be an aggressive hedge with their big men and then not switching. A switch would mean that one of Amherst’s big men would be stuck on , a mismatch in favor of Wesleyan. This is why Chery should see big minutes on Saturday, he is big enough to handle Krill and fast enough to handle Hutcherson or Bonner.

If Jordan Bonner ’19 gets hot, Amherst could be in for a long day.

In general, this game is not the best matchup for Amherst’s big men. Joseph Schneider ’19 is skilled inside, but he might get swallowed by the athleticism of Wesleyan’s front court. And with Eric Sellew ’20 out, Amherst’s big men rotation is very thin. This presents a big problem on the glass. Amherst simply must win the rebounding battle in this game. These are the two best rebounding teams in the league based on rebounding margin, and both are at their most dangerous when they get open shots off of offensive rebounds. Both these teams will be battling fiercely for rebounds, but it is more important for Amherst because they have fewer weapons on the offensive end. More of their offense is based on second chances.

All the signs point to Wesleyan in this game. They’ve had a more successful regular season, they have more weapons, and they played better in their first round game. But the game is in Amherst, and crazy things happen down there. The Mammoths are 10-2 at home this season, and have an almost supernatural knack for pulling out close games in their gym. I think most loyal readers will know how much it kills me to do this, but I have to go Amherst. Let no one call me biased again.

Writer’s Prediction: Amherst 63, Wesleyan 60