Sports – Page 22 – Nothing But NESCAC

Spring is Coming (Eventually); An Interview with Middlebury’s CF Sam Graf

Graf, a big fan of Josh Donaldson’s swing path, loves to hit dingers.

While the weather continues to push back against the boys of spring, baseball is inevitably around the corner. MLB spring training is underway and soon NESCAC baseballs will be popping against catchers’ gloves and flying over fences. Former Middlebury Baseball Head of Analytics, Dylan Mortimer, recently interviewed CF Sam Graf ’19 on his approach to hitting offseason throwing, and the impact of Midd’s new HitTrax technology on the program.

Dylan: So as a college baseball player, with what’s available to you, what kind of stats do you look at during the season to evaluate your performance?

Sam: Honestly, I try as hard as I can not to look at stats during the season, but I think in terms of performance, at the end of the season, OPS is one of the best ones. I always try to keep a running tally of how many times I’ve walked and struck out, because I always want more walks than strikeouts. Other than that, on a day to day basis, I’m mostly paying attention to how often I’m hitting the ball hard and having quality at bats.

Dylan: After an at bat, regardless of the outcome, do you ‘pat yourself on the back’ for having a productive at bat in terms of moving the runner or other team-oriented outcomes?

Sam: Yeah, a little bit. No matter what the situation is I’m trying to hit the ball hard. If there’s a runner on third with less than two outs I’m looking to drive the ball first and foremost and a lot of times that’ll lead to a sac fly anyways.

Dylan: How would you describe your general approach? Are you looking to just hit line drives, or pull the ball, or go opposite field? Are you ever looking to just crank one over the fence or do you try to let the power come naturally out of good contact?

Sam: When I get up to the plate I try and really limit the thinking as much as I can and focus more on the feel of things. I focus on the pitcher’s release point, I’ve been timing up the pitcher’s fastball in the on-deck circle and in the dugout. At the college level you’re going to see a lot of fastballs, especially early in the count. I’m also not really thinking about where I’m trying to hit the ball I’m really just thinking about driving it and my lower half and not about my hands at all. Sometimes I think about going to the right-center gap but my best hit balls are generally pulled, but having that mindset allows me to have a better path to the ball, even though I’m driving it pull side.

Dylan: Do you have a unique batting practice routine? I know the beginning of your guys’ routine is to lay some bunts down and do some situational hitting but after that what is your process? I ask because I read a Fangraphs article about Freddie Freeman trying to hit line drives at the shortstop’s head which would translate to driving the ball to center and pulled to right field. Do you do anything kind of unique like that?

Sam: My first round is always going to be an opposite field round where I’m trying to hit the ball the other way and let it get a little deeper to time it up. With that I feel it sort of helps eliminate the hands out of my swing like I was talking about earlier. And that’s just kind of my individual feel. We usually get two rounds and my last round is just a game mentality round. So I sort of pretend its an in game situation and I try to pick up the ball out of the pitchers release point and try and hit the ball hard to the right center gap, although it never really goes exactly in that direction.

Dylan: So you guys installed the HitTrax stuff last year. I was wondering how you’ve used that and if you’ve thought more about launch angle at all, which has been a huge trend in major league baseball.

Editor’s Note: HitTrax is a new hitting technology which measures exit velocity and launch angle of the ball off of the bat. It allows hitters to see how they can maximize the distance on balls they put in play and projects how far their batting practice ball travel in the air. It’s pretty neat and follows a Josh Donaldson and Justin Turner-type hitting philosophy.

Sam: Yeah, we do use HitTrax almost every practice and its really cool that it can measure the launch angle and exit velocity. What’s been important for me is knowing how hard I’m hitting the ball and also to see if I’m in the launch angle range between like 10 and 25 degrees which is kind of the ideal range. Even if you’re not barreling it up but you get that launch angle it’ll still probably drop beyond the infielders for a hit. Christian Yelich is a guy who hits the ball really hard but hasn’t had the success people think he will have because his launch angle hasn’t been great. I think Mike Moustakas is another guy like that. So a swing change to a more elevated path could really help those guys out.

Dylan: So have you done anything to change your swing since using HitTrax or has it more validated your current swing path?

Sam: Last year I will say that I didn’t make a whole lot of major changes but I tried to kind of feel a lot of different things and every day come in with the intention to hit the ball in the air and HitTrax helped me see where certain balls were going to land and helped me know which swing feels would lead to more hits. I think that really showed between freshman and sophomore years. I was a much better hitter sophomore year in terms of slugging and I was more patient also because you can see the zones on HitTrax. My flyball to groundball ratio was also totally different from freshman to sophomore year. Freshman year I wasn’t really trying to hit the ball in the air as much.

Graf is on first in this photo, and as great hitters say, singles are mistakes, so why is he smiling?

Dylan: What were the details on that one tank you hit in one of the preseason scrimmages?

Sam: Oh yeah! HitTrax said I hit it 96 mph off of the bat and it went over 400 feet because it was at the perfect angle of around 20 or 25 degrees.

Dylan: So talking more about your improvements from freshman to sophomore year, I was looking at your stats and you walked only 4 times freshman year and the next year you walked 17 times in a couple of less plate appearances than you had freshman year. So aside from being more patient in general did you change anything significant?

Sam: So I made a really conscious effort to say I wasn’t going to chase as many pitches. HitTrax helps with that goal because it shows me where pitches are in the strike zone and if I shouldn’t have swung at something. Other than that I think I improved just because I was determined to be more selective.

Dylan: So another thing I saw in your stats was that freshman year you had one outfield assist and last year you had five. I also remember that freshman year most people would agree you had the best arm in the outfield or maybe of position players on the team. Are people running on you more or are you just more relaxed when you’re making throws.

Sam: I think a lot of that, especially with a smaller sample size of games, probably came down to luck. Part of it is also probably because I played mostly left field last year.

Dylan: I remember freshman year, against Wesleyan I think, a guy hit single he was trying to stretch into a double and you caught it off of a bounce. He had no shot against you getting to second but you just wound up and threw the ball straight into the ground. Do you remember that?

Sam: *Laughing* Yes, I remember that. Yeah, that was not great. I forgot that you traveled with us freshman year so you saw that.

Dylan: That was awesome because everyone was so excited to see you hose that guy.

Sam: It was really cold that day.

Dylan: Can you talk about your offseason program for your arm care and what your goals are with it?

Sam: The number one goal, especially as I get older, is just to stay healthy. I’ve done a good job the last two years working with the driveline baseball protocols. I started doing that my junior year of high school I think and it’s been huge in keeping my arm healthy. I started doing bands before and after throwing and last year I started foam rolling a lot more and doing lots of soft tissue work. Coming back from studying abroad was interesting because at first I was throwing terribly but I knew that I had to listen to my arm and not push through and now I’m doing much better.

Dylan: Are you playing summer baseball this year or are you more looking for an internship?

Sam: Yeah, I’m more looking at an internship right now. My parents have supported me through quite a few summers of baseball and they’d like to see me do an internship. Playing summer ball also doesn’t really allow me to get as strong as I could be so that’s something I’m interested in exploring while doing an internship.

Dylan: Could you think of the best advice you’ve ever gotten from a coach?

Sam: Off the top of my head one of the things that had the biggest impact on me was in middle school my coach asked our team what we individually thought about at the plate. A lot of people said things like don’t strikeout, hit the ball on the ground, or move the runner. He told us the only thing we should be thinking about at the plate is hitting the ball hard and clearing your mind of everything else. Early on I used to always think too much. Now I even do meditation to practice clearing my mind for when I go up to the plate and only have to think about hitting the ball hard.

Dylan: What about the worst advice?

Sam: As I’ve gotten older I’ve realized that not everyone knows what they’re talking about. So I’ve weeded through a lot of stuff like swinging down on the baseball and trying to hit groundballs. If you look at my high school stats it’s even funnier than the split between freshman and sophomore year. I hit .500 both years in high school but I think over that span I probably had only like five doubles, and no homeruns. Part of that was definitely coaches telling me to just get the ball on the ground.

How the Tables Have Turned: Middlebury Men’s Basketball Sweet Sixteen Preview

#18 Middlebury (21-6, 7-4, Beat Lebanon Valley and Eastern Connecticut)

The Panthers played their two most complete games of the season in their first two NCAA games. They simply overpowered Lebanon Valley and Eastern Connecticut, dominating the boards and (finally) hitting some open outside shots. And, as Colby brought up in the Stock Report, Middlebury’s path to the Final Four is clearer than one might expect at this point in the tournament. Thanks to some upsets in the earlier rounds, (namely Ramapo over Williams and MIT over Johns Hopkins,) Middlebury has a team ranked behind them and two unranked teams in their bracket this weekend. It’s impossible to dream up a more satisfying start to the tournament for Middlebury, especially after such a discouraging end of the regular season. And it has a chance to get even more satisfying after these two games.

How They Got Here:

The thing that made Middlebury’s performances last weekend so satisfying was that they were finally able to play their game. After months of playing a slowed down, offensively stagnant style of basketball that even the most passionate Middlebury fans had trouble watching, the Panthers finally got out and ran. This team was always meant to play fast; that’s why coaches Brown and Dudley brought in four guards in their recruiting class. And of course, Jack Daly’s greatest strengths are finishing and creating in transition. In the half court, it’s easier for teams to sag off him and dare him to shoot jump shots. When Daly is locked up, the whole team is in trouble, as their biggest weakness is their lack of a solid secondary ball handler. But when Daly is freed up to run (and when other guards are hitting their shots,) Middlebury truly can beat anyone in the country.

Jack Farrell ’21 looked ready to step into the lead guard role last weekend against Eastern Connecticut.

The keys to Middlebury’s wins were transition offense, as I mentioned above, rebounding, and secondary scoring. Matt Folger ’20 spent much of the weekend in foul trouble, a situation that has often spelled trouble for the Panthers during their end of the season struggles. When Folger wasn’t playing well, Middlebury simply didn’t have enough perimeter scoring to keep up with NESCAC opponents. Their biggest wins came when they got contributions from guards other than Daly. Joey Leighton ’20, Hilal Dahleh ’19 Jack Farrell ’21 are all guards who have the capability of scoring double digits, but have been inconsistent for much of the season. But last weekend they all found their groove. Dahleh and Leighton both hit their open threes against Lebanon Valley, and then against Eastern Connecticut, Farrell and Dahleh went off. They combined for 35 points and hit four threes, making it so Daly could focus more on finishing at the rim and facilitating. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Middlebury played their perfect game against Eastern Connecticut, and they’ll have to play a couple more if they want a trip to Salem.

X Factor: G Hilal Dahleh ’19

Hilal Dahleh ’19 (Courtesy of Middlebury Athletics)

It says something that Middlebury’s two best wins of the season, at home versus Williams in the regular season and last weekend at Eastern Connecticut, have been Dahleh’s two best games of the year (16 points in each.) Dahleh missed all of his sophomore season with a back injury, so some of his early season struggles can certainly be attributed to rust. But he is still often too unselfish, passing up open shots in favor of more ball movement and drives into an already crowded lane. But when Dahleh is aggressive, he adds an entirely new dimension to Middlebury’s offense. He has a smooth outside shot, and might be Middlebury’s second best creator off the dribble other than Daly, depending on whether or not Farrell is on that night. His defense is also valuable. At 6’3″ with long arms, he is capable of defending forwards on switches or simply matching up with them, something Farrell isn’t great at yet. But if he isn’t an offensive threat, it’s harder to justify having him out there. I wrote above how important secondary scoring is to Middlebury, but Dahleh might be the most important one of those three guards due to his combination of floor spacing and defense. He will have to bring both against MIT on Friday.

The Competition:

#19 MIT Engineers (24-5, 10-4, Won Their Conference):

AJ Jurko ’19 was Defensive Player of the Year last year in MIT’s conference, and has stepped up in the absence of Bradley Jomard.

The Engineers decided to break from their homework (burn) long enough to upset Johns Hopkins last weekend to earn a Sweet 16 berth. They play the Panthers on Friday in a game that is neither team’s ideal matchup. MIT fits the profile of teams that give the Panthers fits, such as Bowdoin and Hamilton (I know, not exactly contemporaries, but hear me out.) They are deadly from three point land, shooting 41% as a team. They have four regular players who shoot over 43% from downtown; guards AJ Jurko ’19, Cameron Korb ’19 and Ian Hinkley ’21, and forward Hamilton Forsyth ’21. Middlebury has struggled when teams can stretch them out with shooters, and MIT seems to have that kind of depth. For much of the season these shooters surround the all around brilliance of Bradley Jomard ’19, who averages 16 points, 5.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. Incredibly, Jomard has missed their entire conference tournament and NCAA run with an injury. This article leaves it ambiguous as to whether or not he’ll play, but MIT is certainly capable of winning without him. They are dominant defensively, holding opponents to just 63 points per game, and have lots of long guards to throw at Daly (Jurko is 6’4″, as is Hinkley.) Middlebury should be ready for a dogfight.

Ramapo Roadrunners (23-6, 15-3, won Conference Tournament):

Ironically, last weekend most Middlebury fans were rooting very hard for the Roadrunners as they took down Williams. But now, Middlebury travels to Ramapo with the potential to face down the host time for a trip to the Final Four. Ramapo over Williams was certainly an upset. Williams entered the game ranked fifth in the country, while Ramapo was unranked. But Williams may have been guilty of looking past Ramapo, and specifically leading scorer Thomas Bonacum ’18.

TommyBonacumNCAA18 — Thomas Bonacum ’18 roasted Williams last weekend.

Bonacum’s shooting numbers entering the game weren’t mind-blowing (14.6 points per game on 42% shooting, 30% from three,) but it turns out he had another gear to reach. He lit up Williams for 33 points (half of their team total of 66) on 11-15 shooting, and added 13 rebounds. Bonacum has great size at 6’6″ and 230 pounds, and can step behind the arc, going 5-7 from downtown against Williams. Ramapo seems to rely mostly on him and a very strong defense, holding their opponents to just 38.5% shooting on the season. This defense masks a lack of outside shooting on their own team. Ramapo only shooting 32.4% from three as a whole, so teams should be able to focus a lot of energy on Bonacum and the paint. But they also have to score points themselves, something that Williams couldn’t do against the Roadrunners.

Franklin and Marshall Diplomats (22-6, 14-4, lost in Conference Semifinal to Johns Hopkins:)

Brandon Federici ’18

The final team in this mini-bracket, Franklin and Marshall joins Middlebury as a team that has come back from an early exit in their conference tournament. They have had a somewhat easy path in NCAA tournament so far, beating two also unranked teams in Emory & Henry and Chris. Newport. But the Diplomats are dangerous (note: dangerous diplomats is a good screenplay idea.) They are led in scoring by senior guard Brandon Federici ’18, who averaged 19.5 points per game. Federici is something of a volume scorer, shooting just 41% from the field and 38% from three, but he can heat up and change a game all by himself. Alongside Federici is PG Matthew Tate ’18, who averages 14.0 points per game and 4.1 assists. Tate also shoots 40% from three. This team would seem to be an ideal matchup for Middlebury. The Panthers lock down guards as well as anyone in the country, and Franklin and Marshall is not a very big team, allowing the Panthers to own the boards. But a lot of things have to happen for this matchup to occur. Well actually, only two things. Franklin and Marshall has to upset the hosts, and, more importantly for this article, Middlebury has to take care of MIT on Friday night.

Stock Report 3/6: Just Staying Alive or Dominating the Dance?

Stock Up

Jack Daly and Middlebury’s Rebounding

While Daly might not be able to change his position in the Player of the Year race anymore, he is doing everything he can to keep his senior season going. He put up a triple-double in Midd’s opening round win over Lebanon Valley with 13 points, 14 assists, and 11 boards. The Panthers won 83-63 and continued their dominance by dominating the regional host, Eastern Connecticut, 83-58. The Panthers handed the Warriors just their fourth loss of the season and did so in convincing fashion, simply outplaying and out rebounding their opponents. We know Midd likely won’t shoot over 40% from beyond the arc, so their front court, which includes Daly, their PG, is the key to winning games. They more than doubled Eastern Conn’s board totals (54 to 26) and have a lethal combination of Eric McCord, Adisa Majors, Matt Folger and Nick Tarantino playing as forwards. They actually have a favorable path to the final four too. #19 MIT is a tough opponent, but is still missing top player Bradley Jomard, and regardless of whether he returns or not, he likely won’t be at 100% (to learn more about Jomard and MIT, check out this article by d3hoops.) In a potential elite-8 matchup, the Panthers would see either unranked Ramapo (who upset Williams 66-62) or unranked Franklin and Marshall.

Daly was on his game last weekend, and has Middlebury with the Final Four in their sights.

Hamilton’s Chances of Advancing

Hamilton breezed by their opening round opponent, Nazareth, 86-72, and then struggled to knock off #11 York 69-66. York was ranked higher than Hamilton and higher than any opponent of any of the other NESCAC teams, and was a great test for the Continentals. Now, they play unranked Springfield in a sweet-16 matchup and would likely follow that up against sectional host, Swarthmore, who is ranked 14th by d3hoops. Springfield went 1-3 against NESCAC opponents this year, only beating Wesleyan in a game where the Cardinals shot just 3-25 from three—something Hamilton won’t do. Swarthmore lost to York earlier this year but also beat Middlebury handily 91-75. But let’s not forget that Hamilton also demolished Middlebury 102-83. They also went 2-1 against #12 Johns Hopkins, but lost in their conference tournament like Hamilton. With their starting lineup’s balance and shooting potential, the Continentals just might make a run to the Final Four. Check back later for a more in depth preview of Hamilton’s sectional.

Kena Gilmour ’20 and Hamilton are making the selection committee looking silly for not giving them a home game in the first round.

Stock Down

Second Round Success:

While both Wesleyan and Williams were able to breeze by their opening round opponents, they each suffered defeats to Swarthmore and Ramapo, respectively. Wesleyan was trounced 97-75 against the team ranked just ahead of them nationally (14 compared to 15). While they shot over 35% from the field and from deep, their fouling and Swarthmore’s unbelievable execution from the charity stripe (21-22) led them to victory over the Cardinals. Williams, on the other hand, had an easy draw in their first two rounds and lost to a Ramapo team that didn’t have a tough strength of schedule on their home court. James Heskett had a tough day from beyond the arc, shooting just 3-12 and the NESCAC champions now need to look towards next season.

NCAA Selection

Hamilton had great success in the regular season, had a high national ranking, and ridiculous thanks of schedule (thanks to the NESCAC’s four NCAA tournament team), but didn’t get to host any playoff games. The result of their opening rounds was a proverbial middle finger to the haters who paired them up with a great York basketball team. They proved that they were deserving of a home game and might legitimize their position and their program for future years.

There’s a First Time for Everything: Wesleyan NCAA Tournament Preview

#15 Wesleyan (21-6, 7-3, Lost in Final to Williams)

The Cardinals looked like a borderline tournament team at the conclusion of the regular season, but played their way to the title game of the NESCAC tournament in part thanks to some heroics from Nathan Krill ’18 in the semifinal against Amherst. This made them a lock to not only make the tournament, but they were selected to be a host for the first two rounds of games. The Cardinals have never won a national tournament game, and this looks to be their best chance.

Wesleyan finished 2nd in the NCAA regional rankings (behind Williams) and 15th in the D3hoops poll, which concluded a solid season for a team who lost two impact underclassmen before the school year. They have made the tournament twice in recent years with Coach Reilly at the helm, but failed to make it past the first round either time. In fact, they have never made it past the first round as a program, so they will surely be tested in their opening round matchup with Southern Vermont.

How They Got Here:

Going into this season, we had absolutely no idea what to expect from Wesleyan. They lost two key players in Salim Green ’19 and Andrew Gardiner ’19 who left the school, as well as the graduation of Harry Rafferty ’17, who was the star from last year’s team. They got off to a hot start with big early season wins over #21 Nichols and #5 Williams (pre-Scadlock injury mind you), before falling to Springfield and then Williams in their second meeting for the official NESCAC season. Their loss to Trinity midway through the season was a bit surprising, but the NESCAC is tough and it was Kevin O’Brien’s first game back from illness, so that’s not a particularly bad loss. The focus for Wesleyan is on the three point shot because they have been very streaky this season from deep. Their defense is excellent, so if their offense can keep up they have a chance to make a run. Something to focus on is that Wesleyan has very solid senior leadership in JR Bascom ’18, Jordan Sears ’18, and Nathan Krill ’18. This is the third NCAA Tournament appearance for these guys, so they certainly don’t lack experience. Jordan Sears ’18 took home the Defensive Player of the Year Award this weekend (both from us at NbN and officially, from the NESCAC) Nathan Krill ’18 has already proven that he can step up when they need it by knocking down a very deep, game-winning 3-pointer with 1.7 seconds left to cap off a 29-point, 10-rebound night. This is a team that is ready for the postseason, under the excellent coaching of Joe Reilly.

After downing Amherst, let’s see if Nathan Krill ’18 has any magic left.

How They Lose:

Wesleyan has some solid scoring threats (see Nathan Krill ’18, Jordan Bonner ’19, Austin Hutcherson ’21), but they are a defensive-minded team. They’ll get themselves into trouble if they get into a shootout with someone, so they need to elevate their defense even more in the tournament. This isn’t helped by the fact that Southern Vermont, New England College, and #14 Swarthmore are all pretty high scoring teams. With this low-scoring approach, the Cardinals will need to be efficient with their shots. They only average 13.8 assists per game, which is second to last in the NESCAC, only ahead of Conn College. Devoid of a star player who can take over games, they’ll have to pay extra attention to sharing the ball and working for the best shot they can get.

The Competition

Southern Vermont College Mountaineers (22-5, 12-2, Conference Champs)

The Mountaineers won the Northeast Collegiate Conference championship to earn their program’s third ever bid to the NCAA Tournament after a very solid 22-5 season. They boast the conference’s player of the year, senior Mike Pierre ’18 who averages 19.1PPG, 6.5REB/G, 2.5AST/G, and shoots a solid percentage from the field. They also claim the conference’s defensive player of the year, Daemond Carter, who helped them hold conference opponents to an astounding 66 points per game. The Mountaineers will likely look to shoot a lot and keep their games at a fast pace, especially since they struggle with rebounding at times. It will be tough for them to matchup with Nathan Krill on the rebounding side, with their tallest player only being 6’6”. They will look to push the ball in transition, staying ahead of the Wesleyan shot blockers. The size of Wesleyan combined with their disciplined approach puts them in great position to win their first ever NCAA Tournament game.

#14 Swarthmore College Garnet (22-5, 15-3, Lost in Final to #12 Johns Hopkins)

Does Cam Wiley ’19 have the star power to lead the Garnet deep into the playoffs.

The Garnet return to the NCAA Tournament this year after being sent home in the second round of last year’s tournament. They sit at #14 in the nation and 3rd in their regional ranking, receiving at at-large bid after losing to #12 Johns Hopkins in the Centennial Conference championship game. The Garnet play one of the toughest non-NESCAC schedules out there, with notable wins over #18 Middlebury (when they were as high as 2nd in the nation), #12 Johns Hopkins, and Franklin & Marshall. They don’t have any standout scorers, although they’re lead by point guard Cam Wiley ’19 who averages 15.8PPG, to go along with 4.4REB/G and 3.2AST/G. What the Garnet have going for them is that they rebound very efficiently, and have the size to matchup with just about anyone. They also shoot at a 47.6% clip as a team, which is outstanding and very hard to keep up with. This is a very tough team to beat, and a potential matchup with Wesleyan in the second round makes this region very interesting.

New England College Pilgrims (21-6, 15-3, Conference Champs)

Last but not least we have the North Atlantic Conference champions: the New England College Pilgrims. This is another team that lacks true size (tallest player is 6’6”) so they’ll look to spread the floor and try to stay out of half court sets. They’ve got two reliable scoring threats in Ricky Leonard ’19 (17.3PPG) and Izaiah Winston-Brooks ’20 (16.7PPG) so they are a team that could potentially play spoiler if they get hot. They don’t have a senior on their roster so the inexperience could hurt a bit, however the game plan is very simple if they’re going to beat a team as talented as Swarthmore: the shots need to be falling. The Pilgrims need to be very efficient with their shots and will have to shoot a very high percentage to keep up with the Garnet. They are definitely an underdog, but who doesn’t love an underdog in March?

Second Chances: Middlebury NCAA Opening Round Preview

#18 Middlebury (19-6, 7-3, Lost in Quarterfinals to Wesleyan)

After some short-but-very-real sweating over whether or not the Panthers would even get an NCAA bid, Middlebury now faces a long road trip to scenic Willimantic, Connecticut. Willimantic is the hometown of Former US Senator Chris Dodd, and, more relevantly for this tournament, the Eastern Connecticut Warriors. As most NESCAC fans probably know, Middlebury ended the season on a three game losing streak, including a loss in the NESCAC quarterfinals to Wesleyan. This was pretty incongruous with the rest of their season, which was a huge success. Middlebury was 19-3 heading into the final weekend, and climbed as high as fifth in the national rankings. There’s no reason that Middlebury can’t reach those heights again.

How They Got Here:

For most of the season, Middlebury was the consensus best team in the league, thanks in large part to recently crowned All-League Jack Daly ’18. Daly carried a ridiculous (and it turns out, unsustainable) burden on both sides of the ball for Middlebury, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals. But Middlebury’s ideal offense have come when Daly is able to sit back, pick his spots to drive and create shots for others. The Panthers’ best win of the year was at home over now #5 Williams. In that game, guards Hilal Dahleh ’19 and Joey Leighton ’20 combined for 32 points, allowing Daly to play a game more suited to his skill set. He finished with just seven points, but had 11 assists and four steals. Middlebury led the Ephs by double digits for pretty much the entire game, before Bobby Casey ’19 spearheaded a furious final minute comeback. Middlebury is at their best when they can get contributions from players other than Daly and Matt Folger ’20, and for much of the season, they did just that.

Middlebury needs role players like joey Leighton ’20 to hit some shots in order to take pressure off of the stars.

How They Lose:

This may seem obvious based on the previous paragraph, but Middlebury loses when they don’t get any secondary contributions. Daly is not a shooter, therefore teams, especially elite NESCAC defenses, have had success packing the paint and forcing him to finish over size. The obvious solution to that would be for him to kick it out to shooters, forcing the defense to spread out and giving him more open lanes to the basket, and the big men more room to finish. Unfortunately, for those who watch Middlebury consistently (like me) it feels like Middlebury hasn’t hit a three point shot in about a month. The Panthers have struggled shooting the ball to such an extent that it shouldn’t even really be called “struggling” anymore; they just aren’t a good shooting team. This was the problem in all three of the losses that ended their regular season prematurely. Middlebury couldn’t hit any shots, therefore teams could lock in on Daly and make him finish difficult layups. He had 20 against Wesleyan in the quarterfinals, but many of them were very difficult shots and he was blocked several times at the end of the game.

Unfortunately, there are no real solutions here for the Panthers other than “somebody hit some shots.” After a long slump, Folger seems to have come around a little bit towards the end of league play, but Middlebury still needs more. Leighton and Dahleh are the chief candidates; they have to view the NCAA tournament as a new season and come out aggressive. There have been too many games of late where one of them misses their first shot and then hesitates the rest of the game. First years Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornaker ’21 also must be factors, at least as ball handlers to take some pressure off Daly. Middlebury has the tools to make an NCAA run. They showed it over their first 22 games of this season. But they can’t do that if they can’t score.

The Competition:

Lebanon Valley (18-9, 10-6, Conference Champs)

Sam Light ’18 (Courtesy of Lebanon Valley Athletics)

Middlebury’s Friday opponent, the Dutchmen earned their NCAA berth by way of a thrilling 70-68 win in the MAC Commonwealth Championship game. Lebanon Valley is led by senior guard Sam Light ’18, who led his conference in scoring with 23.3 PPG and poured in 35 in the championship game. Light is a gunner, shooting a ridiculous 47.6% from three on the season. Second on the team in scoring is Andy Orr ’18, a forward who pours in 18 points a game along with 9.9 rebounds. Other than those two, the Dutchmen are very thing, with no one else scoring more than 8 points per game. As a team they shoot well from three at 36.5%, but are exploitable on the boards, only out-rebounding their opponents by three per game (low for a conference champion.) On paper, this seems like a good matchup for Middlebury. The Panthers defend guards very well (ask Bobby Casey,) so Light should see a heavy dose of Daly and Farrell. And Middlebury crashes the offensive glass hard, and has a definite size advantage in this game (Orr is the only player in the rotation over 6’4″.) Middlebury should be able to win this one playing their game.

#10 Eastern Connecticut (25-3, 13-1, Conference Champs)

This is the team that makes this a tough draw for the Panthers. The home team in this round of the tournament, the Warriors are tenth in the country and ended the season third in the regional rankings, sandwiched right between Wesleyan (2) and Hamilton (4) and have been a popular NESCAC non conference opponent in recent years. This season they went 3-0 against NESCAC teams, although those teams were Connecticut College, Trinity and Amherst before Amherst got good. The Warriors are a transition-minded team. They shoot very well from three, making nearly 10 per game on 37.5% shooting, and they pick nearly ten steals per game as well, which translate into fast break baskets.

Tarchee Brown ’18 is one of the best players in the region.

Like Middlebury, they rely a great deal on their star guard. Tarchee Brown ’18 was the Player of the Year in the Little East Conference, averaging over 19 points per game with 9 rebounds and 4 assists. He is the kind of Player that Middlebury has trouble with, as his length and athleticism make it hard for Daly to match him, but his quickness makes Folger not the right call either. Eastern Connecticut also boasts their conference’s Defensive Player of the Year in G Carlos Gonzalez ’20. Gonzalez averaged over 3 steals per game, as well as 5 assists. The Warriors lack size and depth in the middle, however. Their tallest starter F Leonal Hyatt ’19 at 6’6″, 210, and they only have one forward who is in the rotation off the bench. Should they match up, this is an area for Middlebury to exploit on an otherwise dominant team.

Johnson and Wales (19-9, 13-3, Conference Champs)

Brian Hogan-Gary ’19 (Courtesy of Johnson and Wales Athletics)

Annnnnnd in this corner, from the GNAC, we have the Johnson and Wales Wildcats. The Wildcats have a balanced scoring attack; all five of their starters average at least 10 points. They are led by G Brian Hogan-Gary ’19, who averaged 17.5 points per game on over 50% shooting. He also came with two assists of having a quadrouple-double against Anna Maria, putting 17 points, 10 rebound and 10 steals(!) to go along with 8 assists. The rest of the team follows Hogan-Gary’s lead. They win with a combination of timely shooting and tenacious defense, making up for a lack of serious outside threats. Their only player who shoots more than 35% from three in G Jarrell Martin ’18, who shoots exactly 35% (although they have shot better in league play than their overall numbers.) Like many non-NESCAC conference teams, they are very undersized, with no players over 6’5′. They should run into the buzzsaw that is Eastern Connecticut at home. But it’s March now, and in March, anything can happen.

Time to Take Care of Business: Women’s Basketball NCAA First Round Preview

Surprise, surprise. Amherst won the NESCAC for the second year in a row. Tufts knocked off potent Bowdoin to meet Amherst in the finals. Tufts lost to Amherst only by four points, which is actually an incredible feat. Earlier in the season, Amherst steamrolled them. Like I said in previous articles, Tufts knows how to play Amherst. The results haven’t gone Tufts’ way, but they always play a tough game every time they match up with Amherst. Amherst received the automatic bid by clinching the NESCAC crown, and Bowdoin and Tufts obtained at-large bids. Here’s a preview of the NCAA DIII first round match ups:

Westfield State vs Tufts

This shouldn’t be a tough game for the Jumbos. The ‘Bos have a far superior record and a significantly harder schedule than Westfield State. Tufts, however, has to avoid to tendency to overlook Westfield. Obviously they’re coming off an impressive weekend with an upset win over Bowdoin followed up by a nearly historic victory over Amherst. Junior guard Jac Knapp still is the core for the Jumbos. Her offensive statistics don’t jump off the paper, but she is logs by far the most minutes of any Jumbo. Her time on the floor is probably one of the highest in the country (33.6 min/g). This statistic represents a couple interesting aspects to it. First, her coach trusts her so much that she’s willing to play her at a rate that’s unprecedented. Coach wants her to be out there at all critical moments. She trusts that the offense and defense will always be executed by Knapp.

Jac Knapp ’20 does a little bit of everything for the Jumbos.

The defining statistic that in this game for me is the strength of schedule. Like I said in previous articles, NESCAC schools play a significantly harder schedule than non-NESCAC schools. It’s not that they play many more games, but that their opponents on a weekly basis are far stronger. Westfield lost to both Wesleyan and Trinity by double digits earlier in the season. Wesleyan and Trinity aren’t even in the tournament. This won’t be a rollover win for the ‘Bos, but Westfield shouldn’t pose much of a threat.

Tufts: 60-45

Becker vs Amherst

Cam Hendricks ’20 is a dangerous outside shooter, giving the Mammoths yet another weapon.

This game should be even easier for Amherst than Tufts’ game against Westfield. Amherst is all confidence as a result of this past weekend. Even though they only defeated Tufts in the championship by four points, I think it was really beneficial for Amherst to play a close game. Obviously the NESCAC crown is important, but for teams like Amherst, a national championship always outweighs a NESCAC championship. Amherst will likely have to play a close game in the coming weeks, so the mental toughness they showed to grind out a win against Tufts illustrates that they can do much more than blowout teams. Staying consistent with the minutes theme, sophomore G/F Cam Hendricks is logging the most minutes for Amherst. While she certainly doesn’t score at a proficiency like Hannah Fox or Madeline Eck, her coach trusts her out on the floor; her coach believes that she’s a difference maker. As a fan, I’m very curious to see how Hendricks is used down the stretch in critical games. Her coach put faith in her in the NESCAC playoffs and regular season, so I don’t see why anything would change. For the record, Becker lost to Colby–merely a mediocre NESCAC team— by THIRTY-SIX points in the regular season. They don’t have a chance.

Amherst: 70-28

Husson vs Bowdoin

Out of all the games involving NESCAC teams this weekend, this game is the only one that I could see being remotely close. I’m not going to even give credit to Husson here. Bowdoin has to be mentally down on themselves. They blew an opportunity to beat Amherst. They thought they could simply push over Tufts like they did earlier in the season. Bowdoin, however, got smacked by the Jumbos–losing by twelve points. The Polar Bears were held to forty-eight points, which is some of their lowest scoring all season. I could have seen Bowdoin beating Amherst in the NESCAC championship because they played them tight earlier in the year. If Bowdoin wants to be serious contenders again, they must blow out Husson. They need to repossess their offensive swagger. That starts with senior guard Kate Kerrigan. She has been the ignitor all year for the Polar Bears, and was just named Player of the Year AND Defensive Player of the Year in the NESCAC. She’s a senior team leader, and must convey to the rest of their team that they can’t take any opponent lightly the rest of the way. For if they do, they will never get a date with destiny. Husson lost to Bates during the regular season by over ten points. THEY LOST TO BATES, the worst team in the ‘Cac. I’m not doubting Bowdoin here, but they must not doubt themselves either.

Kate Kerrigan ’18 is the most dangerous player in the league, and is the key to Bowdoin’s title chances.

Bowdoin 75-40

Not a Bracket Buster: Williams NCAA Tournament Preview

Williams (22-5, 7-3, NESCAC Champions)

These newly crowned NESCAC champs just got one of the few things that escaped them in 2017. They are hosting the opening two rounds of the NCAA tournament in Williamstown, MA against Bridgewater State and either Ramapo or Moravian. The #8 Ephs are in control of their own fate here as a home crowd and favorable schedule could lead them right back to where they were last year; namely, the Final Four. The road hasn’t been easy, but with the guidance of Coach Kevin App and the recent return of NESCAC Player of the Week G Mike Greenman, the Ephs are in better shape than they have been the last few weeks heading into the big dance.

How They Got Here:

Williams has had their ups and downs, including F Kyle Scadlock’s torn ACL, a lengthy absence from starting G Mike Greenman, and a host of players entering and leaving the starting lineup. While they Ephs never really stumbled along the way, they certainly had doubters throughout the season. Four of their five losses came to NESCAC teams, and two were against Tufts and Amherst which is surprising given the rest of their track record. They have had some shooting streakiness as G Bobby Casey has had some ups and downs, hitting a hot streak recently while G Cole Teal may have just gotten over the hump of an ice cold streak. They also saw the emergence of a star this season in F James Heskett, who was recently named NESCAC Player of the Year. He averages 19.5 PPG, although his presence as more of a back court player with his side takes away from Williams’ rebounding chops. Their leading rebounder is C Matt Karpowicz who comes off the bench to average 5.5 REB/G. Between their core of F Heskett, G Casey, G Teal, G Greenman, and C Kempton/Karpowicz, they still have depth and are well rounded on perimeter defense, distribution, and shooting.

Matt Karpowicz ’20 has been a powerful inside presence for the Ephs, and was arguably the MVP of the championship game, putting up 14 points on 6-8 shooting.

How They Lose

While Heskett and Casey have been great all season, they have their share of streakiness which leaves Williams vulnerable. In their 69-63 loss to Tufts, their four deep shooting threats (all of their starters but the centers) went just 4-26 from beyond the arc. Even in their championship win over Wesleyan, Heskett went 1-10 from deep and the Ephs were outrebounded 47-40. These were two things that hurt them in their regular season loss to Middlebury as well. The Panthers dominated the boards and were able to lock up Heskett and Casey until the last two minutes, when the Ephs made a furious run. Had Wesleyan been just a little better offensively, Williams would have been in trouble. Great coaching, athleticism, and experience should take the Ephs over their early round opponents here, but in their worst games, these teams at their best can compete with them. They need to distribute the shooting if one of their starters hits a dry streak and they will likely find a hot hand. And, as usual, Karpowicz and Kempton have their work cut out for them on the glass.

The Competition

Bridgewater State University Bears (18-9, 9-3)

Williams’s Friday Opponent, the MASCAT champions earned an automatic bid to the big dance after playing a season free from NESCAC opponents. The Bears have three common opponents with Williams and in those games they are 6-1 against those teams. Bridgewater lost to Salem St. 88-73, an opponent that Williams beat easily 80-68. They aren’t ranked nationally or regionally and relied on their conference championship to qualify for the NCAA tournament. They don’t have too much size, with their two biggest starters listed at 6’7,” which is advantageous to a Williams team lacking the size to rebound. They are balanced overall in terms of production, with four starters averaging over 12 PPG, three averaging over 4 REB/G, and five averaging over 2 assists per contest. However, lacking any real strength of schedule, they should be overmatched by a superior Eph team.

Rayshon Ward ’20 is one of three Bridgewater St players who average over 15 PPG.

Moravian College Greyhounds (20-7, 10-4)

The Greyhounds also were recently crowned conference champions, earning the auto-bid from the Landmark conference, losing seven games along the way, but only one to a regionally ranked opponent. They played Hamilton in their preseason and lost by just four points during a dominant run from the Continentals. The fact that they competed closely with this squad shows that at their best, they would at least give Williams a run for their money. Now, six other losses to worse opponents than Williams lost to all season certainly lowers their chances of knocking off the Ephs, and the rest of their body of work is underwhelming. They shoot a respectable 37.8% from three point range, but that is the best statistic they own. They only have one player above 4 REB/G and had nine players start games this year without any injuries. This means they couldn’t exactly find the winning formula, and as a result relied on the conference championship to get to the tournament. They are a shooting team, averaging 86 PPG, and would need to be red hot all game long to run with the Ephs.

Ramapo College Roadrunners (21-6, 15-3)

The Roadrunners are ranked second in the Atlantic region and have been ranked as high as sixth nationally during the season, but find themselves currently outside of the top-25. It’s tough to see how they fell out of the national rankings on the surface, but they look much weaker given a closer look at their strength of schedule. Unlike the NESCAC, where as many as six of the teams saw national rankings throughout the season and those six were all regionally ranked, Ramapo faced just one ranked opponent all year. That game came against formerly #14 and currently unranked Ohio Wesleyan University on December 28th where the final score was 98-69 in favor of OWU. This crushing defeat surely contributed from the fall from grace for Ramapo as with just six losses, they appear to be much stronger on the surface. They have just two players averaging double digit PPG, two over 5 REB/G, and drain their threes just 32% of the time. They shouldn’t be able to keep up with a far superior Williams team and they round out what looks to be a weak regional, favoring the Ephs who have a great shot to reach the Sweet-16 for the second year in a row.

It’s Time for Madness: Men’s Basketball Postseason Awards Update

This past weekend the Ephs were crowned NESCAC champions, which was a pretty impressive feat given their tough battle with injuries this season. Postseason play is taken into account for the awards, and I believe a lot changed since Pete’s last awards update. I’m not saying the last preview was wrong, but Middlebury couldn’t make it past the first round of the NESCAC playoffs, and I think this affected the awards race more than he does. The actual awards should come out sometime this week, so keep an eye on that, but here are my picks, with grudging approval from Pete and the other writers.

POY: Williams F James Heskett ’19

After Kyle Scadlock ’19 went down with a torn ACL early in the season, we knew Williams would still be good. What we didn’t know, however, was who would step up into the lead scoring role. Bobby Casey ’19 helped mightily, but James Heskett ‘19 snatched the lead role. Heskett ’19 lead the NESCAC in points per game with 22.0 on 52.9% FG and 45.7% 3PT, both good for 6th in the league. He hauled in a respectable 4.3REB/G and dished out 2.3AST/G, which were both solid marks. But it is his tournament performance that sets him apart. He led the Ephs to the NESCAC championship, leading the team with 20.3PPG. His other stats weren’t eye-popping, but he only turned the ball over twice all tournament (both against Hamilton) and that’s very impressive for someone who handles the ball as much as he does. I put a lock of stock in winning, and I’m very impressed by the leader of a team who lost its best player stepping up and performing when it mattered.

James Heskett ’19 has been the league’s best scorer all season, and he kept it up in the tournament.

DPOY: Wesleyan G Jordan Sears ’18

Another change here largely resulting from postseason play. Sears had 2.0BLK/G (2nd in the league), 1.8STL/G (1st in the league), and he only committed 25 fouls in all of NESCAC play. These are ridiculously good numbers, and the fact that he grabs 5.5REB/G doesn’t hurt either. In the Cardinals’ first-round matchup with the Panthers, Sears blocked 8 shots (!!!) and also had a steal and 5 rebounds. He finished the tournament with solid numbers, but again, winning means a thing or two to me, so I believe that Wesleyan’s run to the title game makes Sears’ Defensive Player of the Year case the strongest. In that title game, he spent a large portion of his minutes matched with Heskett, and effectively handled Casey on several switches. Neither of those players had very efficient games, and Williams needed a huge game from Matt Karpowicz ’20 to pull off the win. Sears is a monster and this award is a no brainer.

Jordan Sears ’19 was a scary defender all year, and only got scarier when he put on the mask.

Coach of the Year: Kevin App, Williams

Pete covered this last week, but Kevin App only locked up his bid for Coach of the Year by winning the championship game with relative ease, after two tight matchups to open the playoffs. There still seems to be an App for everything, but we’ll see if there’s an App for getting back to the Final Four where they found themselves just one year ago.

Rookie of the Year: Wesleyan G Austin Hutcherson ‘21

Hutcherson struggled a bit in the tournament, only posted scores of 9, 4, and 7, while grabbing 3, 6, and 4 rebounds while turning the ball over a total of 6 times throughout the tournament. Had Bowdoin pulled off the upset of Amherst in the quarterfinals, their PG Zavier Rucker ’21 would have had a great case, but alas, they did not. And Hutcherson’s performance in the regular season was extremely impressive. He didn’t play exceptionally poorly in the tournament, especially for a first year, and I still believe he will take home the Rookie of the Year Award. Keep an eye on his performance because he will need to elevate his game if Wesleyan wants to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

As first years do, Hutcherson struggled in the playoffs, but his regular season performance was too hard to ignore.

First Team All-NESCAC:

In my opinion, nothing changes here. Vincent Pace ’18 put up a monster game in the first round against Hamilton (22 points, 11 rebounds) but didn’t get the help he needed. Gilmour ’20 was a stud in the postseason, putting up 29 points and 12 rebounds against Tufts, then 20 points and 9 rebounds against Williams. Oh, and he did all that while shooting 51% from the field. Jack Daly ’18 was 7th in the league in points per game (14.9), 1st in assists per game (8.0), 2nd in rebounds per game (8.6), 3rd in steals per game, and 1st in minutes per game. Bobby Casey ’19 didn’t look too convincing in the postseason, but he was too big all year for the Ephs to not be on this list. With Heskett ’19 as POY, these 5 seem to be locks for first team.

Middlebury G Jack Daly ‘18 (15.7 PTS/G, 8.3 REB/G, 8.5 AST/G, 1.8 STL/G)

Hamilton G Kena Gilmour ‘20 (17.4 PPG, 7.0 REB/G, 1.7 STL/G, 46.4 FG)

Williams G Bobby Casey ‘19 (16.1 PPG, 48% FG, 44.1% 3FG)

Tufts G/F Vincent Pace ‘18 (18.4 PPG, 8.2 REB/G, 2.7 AST/G)

Williams F James Heskett ‘19 (19.4 PPG, 3.9 REB/G, 52.6% FG, 45.6% 3FG)

Second Team All-NESCAC

Amherst G Johnny McCarthy ’18 (11.0 PTS/G, 7.8 REB/G, 2.9 AST/G, 1.1 STL/G)

Wesleyan G Jordan Bonner ’19 (15.6 PTS/G, 5.0 REB/G, 36.7 3FG)

Bowdoin F David Reynolds ’20 (15.8 PTS/G, 47.5% FG, 43.9% 3FG)

Hamilton F Michael Grassey ’19 (13.7 PPG, 6.7 REB/G, 50.7% FG, 42% 3FG)

Middlebury F Matt Folger ’20 (14.0 PTS/G, 7.1 REB/G, 2.3 BLK/G)

Snubbed from Hosting, Ready to Play Spoiler: Hamilton NCAA Tournament Preview

NCAA Opening Rounds Weekend Preview

Hamilton (22-4, 7-3)

Hamilton was a shoe in for an at large bid after finishing the season with the least losses in the NESCAC (4). They were ranked 4th in the final NCAA regional rankings and 13th overall in the D3hoops poll and arguably deserved to host these first two rounds of the tournament. In fact, theoretically if the D3 tournament gave them a seed based on this ranking, they would be hosting the opening rounds at their home court. They have a tough assignment here playing in #12 York’s regional as the host just recently dropped from #8 in the nation. Hamilton is no stranger to tough opponents after making it through their NESCAC schedule, but they still have a tall task at hand if they make it past Nazareth, the Empire 8 conference winners, in the round of 64.

Peter Hoffmann is looking to make an impact on the road with a tough draw in the opening rounds of the tournament.

How They Got Here:

The Continentals had a turnaround 2018 where they surged above all expectations and ran the tables in the early parts of the season. They hit a bit of a rough patch when they lost 2/3 games to Amherst and Bowdoin, although they rallied back to make it to the NESCAC semifinals, losing to Williams for the second time this season. They have a lineup loaded with offense, although they sometimes struggle to make their own shots, resulting in a streakiness that makes them dangerous yet susceptible to an upset. They have had games where they have shot over 50% and others where they have shot under 20% from deep, bringing them above teams like Middlebury, and making them fall to the since eliminated Bowdoin Polar Bears. They have an advantage of overall athleticism that should take them past Nazareth, but still ride heavily on the success of star player G Kena Gilmour ’19. Gilmour averages 17.6 PPG and 7.2 REB/G and has taken 37 shots in their last two games. His supporting cast includes F Michael Grassey who averages 12.9 PPG but has shot just 10-40 in his last four games despite a 47.1 season FG%. The Continentals average 86.9 PPG on the season, over six more points than any other NESCAC team and could go a long way in this dance if they play up to their potential.

How They Lose

Hamilton is going to score and they will play in high scoring games. Their fault is perimeter defense, often allowing opponents to take a high number of shots. While their rebounding numbers are great with several players holding double-digit board potential, they allowed Williams to take 32 threes last weekend, a ridiculous number compared to the 18 deep shots taken by Hamilton. Now, although the total number of shots was about even (67-64), if Hamilton’s opponent can get hot, then they will fall behind if they have a cold streak of their own from beyond the arc. We have seen such cold streaks like against Tufts in the NESCAC quarterfinals when they shot just 16.7% from three point range. They allowed the eighth most points in the league, a surprisingly high number given that they lost just three regular season games.

The Competition

Nazareth College Golden Flyers (20-7, 13-3)

Nazareth is hot and coming off a conference championship.

The Golden Flyers earned the Empire 8 conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, winning their last two games by a combined three total points. They didn’t receive any votes in the D3 top 25 and are ranked fourth in the East regional rankings. Their only common game with Hamilton was against Utica who Hamilton beat 90-85. Nazareth lost to Utica 56-59 in their first meeting and beat them in the conference finals 66-64. They have the Empire 8 conference player of the year, Tyler Stenglein, who averages 19.6 PPG and shoots 42.9% from three point range. They lack a strong rebounding presence, giving Hamilton an unusual defensive edge, with their best big hauling in just 8.7 REB/G. They shoot a solid 38.3% from deep and could pose a threat to Hamilton if they get hot, but the Continentals still have the offensive edge. While Nazareth has shooting prowess, Hamilton is the clear favorites in this first round game.

Yeshiva University Maccabees (18-10, 13-7)

The “flagship university of Modern Orthodox Judaism” is looking to continue making international headlines (https://forward.com/fast-forward/395397/yeshiva-university-men-s-basketball-team-will-avoid-shabbat-games-for-ncaa/).

The first time Skyline Conference champions and first time NCAA tournament participants look like big underdogs heading into the weekend. They won their conference finals after sneaking past the #1 and #2 seeds in the Skyline conference in the semifinals and then the championship, going to OT against Farmingdale State to reach the final game. Their win against Farmingdale State was the Maccabees’ best win of the season, even though the Rams were slotted at just eighth in the Atlantic regional rankings. They lost to Williams 78-65 and Ramapo 90-71 (ranked #6 nationally at the time) and haven’t seen too many strong opponents. Their top scorer, Simcha Halpert, averages 21.0 PPG, while the next two highest scorers both sink over 17.0 PPG too. Williams shot under 30% from three against Yeshiva but still managed to win easily as a result of their 18 foul shots taken, putting them over the edge against a less experienced team. I don’t imagine that the Maccabees will topple York in the first round, but if they do, Hamilton might just have an easy ticket to the Sweet-16.

York College Spartans (23-4, 14-4)

York poses the biggest threat to Hamilton as they have been dominant and ranked all year.

Here is one of the few downsides to this Spartan team: Of their four losses, only one is to a quality team. The converse of this is that they played two of the teams again that beat them, Salisbury and Christopher Newport, and got vengeance on their earlier match ups, leading York to the CAC conference championship, an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, and home games for the first two rounds. Two of their players average over 17 PPG although only one averages over six rebounds per game (Hamilton has three players over 6.0 REB/G). They are comparable to Hamilton shooting, averaging 83.0 PPG and within one percentage point of both their FG and 3-PT clips. They are 2-0 against ranked teams this season in #11 Swarthmore and our own #18 Middlebury, posing a serious threat to the Continentals. The Spartans dropped 90 points against Midd, hauling in an impressive 52 boards against a team with a deep front-court presence. The Panthers did shoot just 24.1% from beyond the arc in that game, although the game featured more shooting than a normal contest. The Spartans also showed they could out dish a pass heavy Middlebury team, collecting 16 assists to 13, which is about what Hamilton averages per game (15). Like Hamilton, this team can get hot from deep too, shooting 47% from three in their win against Swarthmore, putting them as a similar team the Continentals. If the Spartans meet Hamilton in the round of 32, if will come down to which team shoots better from deep in a high scoring affair.

Defense Wins Championships: Wesleyan @ Amherst Men’s Basketball Semifinal Preview

Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3, #5 Seed) @ Amherst (17-8, 7-3 #1 Seed), 5:30 PM, Amherst, MA

Overview:

As opposed to the offense heavy three point barrage we expect in the Tufts-Hamilton game (detailed beautifully by Colby here,) this should be a gritty, defensive battle. Both these teams pride themselves on their defense. Amherst’s most impressive win of the season was a 75-49 drubbing of Hamilton in which they held the Continentals to 29.4% shooting. That game was the jumping off point for their run to the number one seed. Since then, they are 7-2 and have won their last three games, including wins over Middlebury and Williams. But their most exciting win of this hot stretch was the last one, a thrilling 71-70 win over Bowdoin in the quarterfinals. In that game, Amherst overcame a rough game from Michael Riopel ‘18 thanks to a First Team level performance from Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (22 points) and contributions from several bench players, most notably Josh Chery ‘20, who scored 11 points and hit the game winning layup with 3.4 seconds left. What this Amherst team lacks in star power they make up for in depth and heart.

Amherst’s defense is the key to their recent success.

Of course, the same can be said for Wesleyan. One of Amherst’s losses since that shellacking of Hamilton is to the Cardinals, a 71-57 road loss in which McCarthy and Riopel went 3-20 from the field. Wesleyan’s season is littered with these types of games. The dominate defensively, shut down what the opponent does best, and the offense does just enough to get by. Their quarterfinal game against Middlebury was another great example. While Jack Daly ’18 did have a nice game (20 points and six assists,) the Cardinals stifled Middlebury’s inside game, holding the dangerous forward combo of Nick Tarantino ’18, Eric McCord ’19 and Adisa Majors ’18 to 6-19 shooting. Jordan Sears ’19 had 8 blocks, and with Kevin O’Brien ’19 and his army of tall, long-armed guards on the perimeter, it is nearly impossible to get into the paint and score against Wesleyan. Amherst will have to hit some threes to spread the Cardinals defense. And Wesleyan will have to do the same against Amherst.

Key Player For Amherst: F Josh Chery ’20

Josh Chery ’20
(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

As I said earlier, Chery was the hero against Bowdoin. With 5 seconds left on the clock, Chery got the ball on the right wing, drove to the rim, and finished a tough layup with 3.4 seconds left. Chery certainly wasn’t the first option,as Johnny McCarthy was lighting it up at that point, but he wasn’t the last one either. Chery has been one of the major keys to Amherst’s recent hot streak. He’s gone over double figures three times in the last four games, and has averaged 25 minutes per game over that stretch after going over 20 minutes just once all season up to that point. At 6’4″ and 215 pounds, he is big and strong enough to guard multiple positions, a huge plus against Wesleyan due to the size of the Cardinal guards. He makes a huge difference on the defensive end, grabbing four steals against Williams and pulling down eight rebounds against Middlebury. And ask Bowdoin how he is finishing at the rim. One thing to watch for is his foul shooting: he’s 0-7 in the last two games. Chery is the ideal player to have on the court against Wesleyan, and, since Wesleyan has proven themselves capable of locking up Riopel and McCarthy, Chery and the rest of the bench mob are the keys to Amherst’s chances.

Key Player for Wesleyan: F Nathan Krill ‘18

Nathan Krill ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

The starting power forward on the “Feels Like They’ve Been in College for 2o Years” All Stars, Krill has been in this position before. However, he has never been as important to the team’s offense. Of course, they won last weekend with him only having three points, but they won’t be able to rely on Antone ’21 Walker putting up 11 off the bench and Kevin O’ Brien ’19 scoring 17. Walker is a great talent, but he is streaky, and O’Brien isn’t really a go to scorer. Krill is Wesleyan’s most dangerous pick and roll finisher. He can step behind the three point line and hit, or he can use his quickness and ball handling skills to finish at the rim. Throughout Krill’s career, this combination of skills has made him one of the hardest players to guard in the league when he’s hot. Key word: “when.” Krill has always been incredibly streaky (see his 24 points against Bowdoin versus 3 the next game against Bowdoin.) Krill only had four points in Wesleyan’s win over Amherst during the regular season, but this a whole new Amherst team. Wesleyan needs their stars to shine bright on Saturday, starting with Krill.

Final Thoughts:

Bowdoin was certainly far more skilled than your average eight seed, but Amherst still should have been able to put them away earlier. The Mammoths were uncharacteristically bad defending the three, allowing Bowdoin to shoot 10-28 from outside (and many of those misses were open looks.) Much of Wesleyan’s offense relies on three point shooting, particularly from Jordan Bonner ’19 and Hutcherson. Amherst will have to do a better job running those two off of the three point lie than they did with Bowdoin’s Jack Simonds ’19 and Liam Farley ’19. They will also have to contend with pick and rolls featuring either Bonner or Hutcherson and Krill. Since each of those players are dangerous shooters, the slightest defensive mistake can lead to an open three pointer. Amherst’s best defense here would be an aggressive hedge with their big men and then not switching. A switch would mean that one of Amherst’s big men would be stuck on , a mismatch in favor of Wesleyan. This is why Chery should see big minutes on Saturday, he is big enough to handle Krill and fast enough to handle Hutcherson or Bonner.

If Jordan Bonner ’19 gets hot, Amherst could be in for a long day.

In general, this game is not the best matchup for Amherst’s big men. Joseph Schneider ’19 is skilled inside, but he might get swallowed by the athleticism of Wesleyan’s front court. And with Eric Sellew ’20 out, Amherst’s big men rotation is very thin. This presents a big problem on the glass. Amherst simply must win the rebounding battle in this game. These are the two best rebounding teams in the league based on rebounding margin, and both are at their most dangerous when they get open shots off of offensive rebounds. Both these teams will be battling fiercely for rebounds, but it is more important for Amherst because they have fewer weapons on the offensive end. More of their offense is based on second chances.

All the signs point to Wesleyan in this game. They’ve had a more successful regular season, they have more weapons, and they played better in their first round game. But the game is in Amherst, and crazy things happen down there. The Mammoths are 10-2 at home this season, and have an almost supernatural knack for pulling out close games in their gym. I think most loyal readers will know how much it kills me to do this, but I have to go Amherst. Let no one call me biased again.

Writer’s Prediction: Amherst 63, Wesleyan 60