Men’s Basketball – Page 9 – Nothing But NESCAC

Second Chances: Middlebury NCAA Opening Round Preview

#18 Middlebury (19-6, 7-3, Lost in Quarterfinals to Wesleyan)

After some short-but-very-real sweating over whether or not the Panthers would even get an NCAA bid, Middlebury now faces a long road trip to scenic Willimantic, Connecticut. Willimantic is the hometown of Former US Senator Chris Dodd, and, more relevantly for this tournament, the Eastern Connecticut Warriors. As most NESCAC fans probably know, Middlebury ended the season on a three game losing streak, including a loss in the NESCAC quarterfinals to Wesleyan. This was pretty incongruous with the rest of their season, which was a huge success. Middlebury was 19-3 heading into the final weekend, and climbed as high as fifth in the national rankings. There’s no reason that Middlebury can’t reach those heights again.

How They Got Here:

For most of the season, Middlebury was the consensus best team in the league, thanks in large part to recently crowned All-League Jack Daly ’18. Daly carried a ridiculous (and it turns out, unsustainable) burden on both sides of the ball for Middlebury, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals. But Middlebury’s ideal offense have come when Daly is able to sit back, pick his spots to drive and create shots for others. The Panthers’ best win of the year was at home over now #5 Williams. In that game, guards Hilal Dahleh ’19 and Joey Leighton ’20 combined for 32 points, allowing Daly to play a game more suited to his skill set. He finished with just seven points, but had 11 assists and four steals. Middlebury led the Ephs by double digits for pretty much the entire game, before Bobby Casey ’19 spearheaded a furious final minute comeback. Middlebury is at their best when they can get contributions from players other than Daly and Matt Folger ’20, and for much of the season, they did just that.

Middlebury needs role players like joey Leighton ’20 to hit some shots in order to take pressure off of the stars.

How They Lose:

This may seem obvious based on the previous paragraph, but Middlebury loses when they don’t get any secondary contributions. Daly is not a shooter, therefore teams, especially elite NESCAC defenses, have had success packing the paint and forcing him to finish over size. The obvious solution to that would be for him to kick it out to shooters, forcing the defense to spread out and giving him more open lanes to the basket, and the big men more room to finish. Unfortunately, for those who watch Middlebury consistently (like me) it feels like Middlebury hasn’t hit a three point shot in about a month. The Panthers have struggled shooting the ball to such an extent that it shouldn’t even really be called “struggling” anymore; they just aren’t a good shooting team. This was the problem in all three of the losses that ended their regular season prematurely. Middlebury couldn’t hit any shots, therefore teams could lock in on Daly and make him finish difficult layups. He had 20 against Wesleyan in the quarterfinals, but many of them were very difficult shots and he was blocked several times at the end of the game.

Unfortunately, there are no real solutions here for the Panthers other than “somebody hit some shots.” After a long slump, Folger seems to have come around a little bit towards the end of league play, but Middlebury still needs more. Leighton and Dahleh are the chief candidates; they have to view the NCAA tournament as a new season and come out aggressive. There have been too many games of late where one of them misses their first shot and then hesitates the rest of the game. First years Jack Farrell ’21 and Griffin Kornaker ’21 also must be factors, at least as ball handlers to take some pressure off Daly. Middlebury has the tools to make an NCAA run. They showed it over their first 22 games of this season. But they can’t do that if they can’t score.

The Competition:

Lebanon Valley (18-9, 10-6, Conference Champs)

Sam Light ’18 (Courtesy of Lebanon Valley Athletics)

Middlebury’s Friday opponent, the Dutchmen earned their NCAA berth by way of a thrilling 70-68 win in the MAC Commonwealth Championship game. Lebanon Valley is led by senior guard Sam Light ’18, who led his conference in scoring with 23.3 PPG and poured in 35 in the championship game. Light is a gunner, shooting a ridiculous 47.6% from three on the season. Second on the team in scoring is Andy Orr ’18, a forward who pours in 18 points a game along with 9.9 rebounds. Other than those two, the Dutchmen are very thing, with no one else scoring more than 8 points per game. As a team they shoot well from three at 36.5%, but are exploitable on the boards, only out-rebounding their opponents by three per game (low for a conference champion.) On paper, this seems like a good matchup for Middlebury. The Panthers defend guards very well (ask Bobby Casey,) so Light should see a heavy dose of Daly and Farrell. And Middlebury crashes the offensive glass hard, and has a definite size advantage in this game (Orr is the only player in the rotation over 6’4″.) Middlebury should be able to win this one playing their game.

#10 Eastern Connecticut (25-3, 13-1, Conference Champs)

This is the team that makes this a tough draw for the Panthers. The home team in this round of the tournament, the Warriors are tenth in the country and ended the season third in the regional rankings, sandwiched right between Wesleyan (2) and Hamilton (4) and have been a popular NESCAC non conference opponent in recent years. This season they went 3-0 against NESCAC teams, although those teams were Connecticut College, Trinity and Amherst before Amherst got good. The Warriors are a transition-minded team. They shoot very well from three, making nearly 10 per game on 37.5% shooting, and they pick nearly ten steals per game as well, which translate into fast break baskets.

Tarchee Brown ’18 is one of the best players in the region.

Like Middlebury, they rely a great deal on their star guard. Tarchee Brown ’18 was the Player of the Year in the Little East Conference, averaging over 19 points per game with 9 rebounds and 4 assists. He is the kind of Player that Middlebury has trouble with, as his length and athleticism make it hard for Daly to match him, but his quickness makes Folger not the right call either. Eastern Connecticut also boasts their conference’s Defensive Player of the Year in G Carlos Gonzalez ’20. Gonzalez averaged over 3 steals per game, as well as 5 assists. The Warriors lack size and depth in the middle, however. Their tallest starter F Leonal Hyatt ’19 at 6’6″, 210, and they only have one forward who is in the rotation off the bench. Should they match up, this is an area for Middlebury to exploit on an otherwise dominant team.

Johnson and Wales (19-9, 13-3, Conference Champs)

Brian Hogan-Gary ’19 (Courtesy of Johnson and Wales Athletics)

Annnnnnd in this corner, from the GNAC, we have the Johnson and Wales Wildcats. The Wildcats have a balanced scoring attack; all five of their starters average at least 10 points. They are led by G Brian Hogan-Gary ’19, who averaged 17.5 points per game on over 50% shooting. He also came with two assists of having a quadrouple-double against Anna Maria, putting 17 points, 10 rebound and 10 steals(!) to go along with 8 assists. The rest of the team follows Hogan-Gary’s lead. They win with a combination of timely shooting and tenacious defense, making up for a lack of serious outside threats. Their only player who shoots more than 35% from three in G Jarrell Martin ’18, who shoots exactly 35% (although they have shot better in league play than their overall numbers.) Like many non-NESCAC conference teams, they are very undersized, with no players over 6’5′. They should run into the buzzsaw that is Eastern Connecticut at home. But it’s March now, and in March, anything can happen.

Not a Bracket Buster: Williams NCAA Tournament Preview

Williams (22-5, 7-3, NESCAC Champions)

These newly crowned NESCAC champs just got one of the few things that escaped them in 2017. They are hosting the opening two rounds of the NCAA tournament in Williamstown, MA against Bridgewater State and either Ramapo or Moravian. The #8 Ephs are in control of their own fate here as a home crowd and favorable schedule could lead them right back to where they were last year; namely, the Final Four. The road hasn’t been easy, but with the guidance of Coach Kevin App and the recent return of NESCAC Player of the Week G Mike Greenman, the Ephs are in better shape than they have been the last few weeks heading into the big dance.

How They Got Here:

Williams has had their ups and downs, including F Kyle Scadlock’s torn ACL, a lengthy absence from starting G Mike Greenman, and a host of players entering and leaving the starting lineup. While they Ephs never really stumbled along the way, they certainly had doubters throughout the season. Four of their five losses came to NESCAC teams, and two were against Tufts and Amherst which is surprising given the rest of their track record. They have had some shooting streakiness as G Bobby Casey has had some ups and downs, hitting a hot streak recently while G Cole Teal may have just gotten over the hump of an ice cold streak. They also saw the emergence of a star this season in F James Heskett, who was recently named NESCAC Player of the Year. He averages 19.5 PPG, although his presence as more of a back court player with his side takes away from Williams’ rebounding chops. Their leading rebounder is C Matt Karpowicz who comes off the bench to average 5.5 REB/G. Between their core of F Heskett, G Casey, G Teal, G Greenman, and C Kempton/Karpowicz, they still have depth and are well rounded on perimeter defense, distribution, and shooting.

Matt Karpowicz ’20 has been a powerful inside presence for the Ephs, and was arguably the MVP of the championship game, putting up 14 points on 6-8 shooting.

How They Lose

While Heskett and Casey have been great all season, they have their share of streakiness which leaves Williams vulnerable. In their 69-63 loss to Tufts, their four deep shooting threats (all of their starters but the centers) went just 4-26 from beyond the arc. Even in their championship win over Wesleyan, Heskett went 1-10 from deep and the Ephs were outrebounded 47-40. These were two things that hurt them in their regular season loss to Middlebury as well. The Panthers dominated the boards and were able to lock up Heskett and Casey until the last two minutes, when the Ephs made a furious run. Had Wesleyan been just a little better offensively, Williams would have been in trouble. Great coaching, athleticism, and experience should take the Ephs over their early round opponents here, but in their worst games, these teams at their best can compete with them. They need to distribute the shooting if one of their starters hits a dry streak and they will likely find a hot hand. And, as usual, Karpowicz and Kempton have their work cut out for them on the glass.

The Competition

Bridgewater State University Bears (18-9, 9-3)

Williams’s Friday Opponent, the MASCAT champions earned an automatic bid to the big dance after playing a season free from NESCAC opponents. The Bears have three common opponents with Williams and in those games they are 6-1 against those teams. Bridgewater lost to Salem St. 88-73, an opponent that Williams beat easily 80-68. They aren’t ranked nationally or regionally and relied on their conference championship to qualify for the NCAA tournament. They don’t have too much size, with their two biggest starters listed at 6’7,” which is advantageous to a Williams team lacking the size to rebound. They are balanced overall in terms of production, with four starters averaging over 12 PPG, three averaging over 4 REB/G, and five averaging over 2 assists per contest. However, lacking any real strength of schedule, they should be overmatched by a superior Eph team.

Rayshon Ward ’20 is one of three Bridgewater St players who average over 15 PPG.

Moravian College Greyhounds (20-7, 10-4)

The Greyhounds also were recently crowned conference champions, earning the auto-bid from the Landmark conference, losing seven games along the way, but only one to a regionally ranked opponent. They played Hamilton in their preseason and lost by just four points during a dominant run from the Continentals. The fact that they competed closely with this squad shows that at their best, they would at least give Williams a run for their money. Now, six other losses to worse opponents than Williams lost to all season certainly lowers their chances of knocking off the Ephs, and the rest of their body of work is underwhelming. They shoot a respectable 37.8% from three point range, but that is the best statistic they own. They only have one player above 4 REB/G and had nine players start games this year without any injuries. This means they couldn’t exactly find the winning formula, and as a result relied on the conference championship to get to the tournament. They are a shooting team, averaging 86 PPG, and would need to be red hot all game long to run with the Ephs.

Ramapo College Roadrunners (21-6, 15-3)

The Roadrunners are ranked second in the Atlantic region and have been ranked as high as sixth nationally during the season, but find themselves currently outside of the top-25. It’s tough to see how they fell out of the national rankings on the surface, but they look much weaker given a closer look at their strength of schedule. Unlike the NESCAC, where as many as six of the teams saw national rankings throughout the season and those six were all regionally ranked, Ramapo faced just one ranked opponent all year. That game came against formerly #14 and currently unranked Ohio Wesleyan University on December 28th where the final score was 98-69 in favor of OWU. This crushing defeat surely contributed from the fall from grace for Ramapo as with just six losses, they appear to be much stronger on the surface. They have just two players averaging double digit PPG, two over 5 REB/G, and drain their threes just 32% of the time. They shouldn’t be able to keep up with a far superior Williams team and they round out what looks to be a weak regional, favoring the Ephs who have a great shot to reach the Sweet-16 for the second year in a row.

It’s Time for Madness: Men’s Basketball Postseason Awards Update

This past weekend the Ephs were crowned NESCAC champions, which was a pretty impressive feat given their tough battle with injuries this season. Postseason play is taken into account for the awards, and I believe a lot changed since Pete’s last awards update. I’m not saying the last preview was wrong, but Middlebury couldn’t make it past the first round of the NESCAC playoffs, and I think this affected the awards race more than he does. The actual awards should come out sometime this week, so keep an eye on that, but here are my picks, with grudging approval from Pete and the other writers.

POY: Williams F James Heskett ’19

After Kyle Scadlock ’19 went down with a torn ACL early in the season, we knew Williams would still be good. What we didn’t know, however, was who would step up into the lead scoring role. Bobby Casey ’19 helped mightily, but James Heskett ‘19 snatched the lead role. Heskett ’19 lead the NESCAC in points per game with 22.0 on 52.9% FG and 45.7% 3PT, both good for 6th in the league. He hauled in a respectable 4.3REB/G and dished out 2.3AST/G, which were both solid marks. But it is his tournament performance that sets him apart. He led the Ephs to the NESCAC championship, leading the team with 20.3PPG. His other stats weren’t eye-popping, but he only turned the ball over twice all tournament (both against Hamilton) and that’s very impressive for someone who handles the ball as much as he does. I put a lock of stock in winning, and I’m very impressed by the leader of a team who lost its best player stepping up and performing when it mattered.

James Heskett ’19 has been the league’s best scorer all season, and he kept it up in the tournament.

DPOY: Wesleyan G Jordan Sears ’18

Another change here largely resulting from postseason play. Sears had 2.0BLK/G (2nd in the league), 1.8STL/G (1st in the league), and he only committed 25 fouls in all of NESCAC play. These are ridiculously good numbers, and the fact that he grabs 5.5REB/G doesn’t hurt either. In the Cardinals’ first-round matchup with the Panthers, Sears blocked 8 shots (!!!) and also had a steal and 5 rebounds. He finished the tournament with solid numbers, but again, winning means a thing or two to me, so I believe that Wesleyan’s run to the title game makes Sears’ Defensive Player of the Year case the strongest. In that title game, he spent a large portion of his minutes matched with Heskett, and effectively handled Casey on several switches. Neither of those players had very efficient games, and Williams needed a huge game from Matt Karpowicz ’20 to pull off the win. Sears is a monster and this award is a no brainer.

Jordan Sears ’19 was a scary defender all year, and only got scarier when he put on the mask.

Coach of the Year: Kevin App, Williams

Pete covered this last week, but Kevin App only locked up his bid for Coach of the Year by winning the championship game with relative ease, after two tight matchups to open the playoffs. There still seems to be an App for everything, but we’ll see if there’s an App for getting back to the Final Four where they found themselves just one year ago.

Rookie of the Year: Wesleyan G Austin Hutcherson ‘21

Hutcherson struggled a bit in the tournament, only posted scores of 9, 4, and 7, while grabbing 3, 6, and 4 rebounds while turning the ball over a total of 6 times throughout the tournament. Had Bowdoin pulled off the upset of Amherst in the quarterfinals, their PG Zavier Rucker ’21 would have had a great case, but alas, they did not. And Hutcherson’s performance in the regular season was extremely impressive. He didn’t play exceptionally poorly in the tournament, especially for a first year, and I still believe he will take home the Rookie of the Year Award. Keep an eye on his performance because he will need to elevate his game if Wesleyan wants to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

As first years do, Hutcherson struggled in the playoffs, but his regular season performance was too hard to ignore.

First Team All-NESCAC:

In my opinion, nothing changes here. Vincent Pace ’18 put up a monster game in the first round against Hamilton (22 points, 11 rebounds) but didn’t get the help he needed. Gilmour ’20 was a stud in the postseason, putting up 29 points and 12 rebounds against Tufts, then 20 points and 9 rebounds against Williams. Oh, and he did all that while shooting 51% from the field. Jack Daly ’18 was 7th in the league in points per game (14.9), 1st in assists per game (8.0), 2nd in rebounds per game (8.6), 3rd in steals per game, and 1st in minutes per game. Bobby Casey ’19 didn’t look too convincing in the postseason, but he was too big all year for the Ephs to not be on this list. With Heskett ’19 as POY, these 5 seem to be locks for first team.

Middlebury G Jack Daly ‘18 (15.7 PTS/G, 8.3 REB/G, 8.5 AST/G, 1.8 STL/G)

Hamilton G Kena Gilmour ‘20 (17.4 PPG, 7.0 REB/G, 1.7 STL/G, 46.4 FG)

Williams G Bobby Casey ‘19 (16.1 PPG, 48% FG, 44.1% 3FG)

Tufts G/F Vincent Pace ‘18 (18.4 PPG, 8.2 REB/G, 2.7 AST/G)

Williams F James Heskett ‘19 (19.4 PPG, 3.9 REB/G, 52.6% FG, 45.6% 3FG)

Second Team All-NESCAC

Amherst G Johnny McCarthy ’18 (11.0 PTS/G, 7.8 REB/G, 2.9 AST/G, 1.1 STL/G)

Wesleyan G Jordan Bonner ’19 (15.6 PTS/G, 5.0 REB/G, 36.7 3FG)

Bowdoin F David Reynolds ’20 (15.8 PTS/G, 47.5% FG, 43.9% 3FG)

Hamilton F Michael Grassey ’19 (13.7 PPG, 6.7 REB/G, 50.7% FG, 42% 3FG)

Middlebury F Matt Folger ’20 (14.0 PTS/G, 7.1 REB/G, 2.3 BLK/G)

Snubbed from Hosting, Ready to Play Spoiler: Hamilton NCAA Tournament Preview

NCAA Opening Rounds Weekend Preview

Hamilton (22-4, 7-3)

Hamilton was a shoe in for an at large bid after finishing the season with the least losses in the NESCAC (4). They were ranked 4th in the final NCAA regional rankings and 13th overall in the D3hoops poll and arguably deserved to host these first two rounds of the tournament. In fact, theoretically if the D3 tournament gave them a seed based on this ranking, they would be hosting the opening rounds at their home court. They have a tough assignment here playing in #12 York’s regional as the host just recently dropped from #8 in the nation. Hamilton is no stranger to tough opponents after making it through their NESCAC schedule, but they still have a tall task at hand if they make it past Nazareth, the Empire 8 conference winners, in the round of 64.

Peter Hoffmann is looking to make an impact on the road with a tough draw in the opening rounds of the tournament.

How They Got Here:

The Continentals had a turnaround 2018 where they surged above all expectations and ran the tables in the early parts of the season. They hit a bit of a rough patch when they lost 2/3 games to Amherst and Bowdoin, although they rallied back to make it to the NESCAC semifinals, losing to Williams for the second time this season. They have a lineup loaded with offense, although they sometimes struggle to make their own shots, resulting in a streakiness that makes them dangerous yet susceptible to an upset. They have had games where they have shot over 50% and others where they have shot under 20% from deep, bringing them above teams like Middlebury, and making them fall to the since eliminated Bowdoin Polar Bears. They have an advantage of overall athleticism that should take them past Nazareth, but still ride heavily on the success of star player G Kena Gilmour ’19. Gilmour averages 17.6 PPG and 7.2 REB/G and has taken 37 shots in their last two games. His supporting cast includes F Michael Grassey who averages 12.9 PPG but has shot just 10-40 in his last four games despite a 47.1 season FG%. The Continentals average 86.9 PPG on the season, over six more points than any other NESCAC team and could go a long way in this dance if they play up to their potential.

How They Lose

Hamilton is going to score and they will play in high scoring games. Their fault is perimeter defense, often allowing opponents to take a high number of shots. While their rebounding numbers are great with several players holding double-digit board potential, they allowed Williams to take 32 threes last weekend, a ridiculous number compared to the 18 deep shots taken by Hamilton. Now, although the total number of shots was about even (67-64), if Hamilton’s opponent can get hot, then they will fall behind if they have a cold streak of their own from beyond the arc. We have seen such cold streaks like against Tufts in the NESCAC quarterfinals when they shot just 16.7% from three point range. They allowed the eighth most points in the league, a surprisingly high number given that they lost just three regular season games.

The Competition

Nazareth College Golden Flyers (20-7, 13-3)

Nazareth is hot and coming off a conference championship.

The Golden Flyers earned the Empire 8 conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, winning their last two games by a combined three total points. They didn’t receive any votes in the D3 top 25 and are ranked fourth in the East regional rankings. Their only common game with Hamilton was against Utica who Hamilton beat 90-85. Nazareth lost to Utica 56-59 in their first meeting and beat them in the conference finals 66-64. They have the Empire 8 conference player of the year, Tyler Stenglein, who averages 19.6 PPG and shoots 42.9% from three point range. They lack a strong rebounding presence, giving Hamilton an unusual defensive edge, with their best big hauling in just 8.7 REB/G. They shoot a solid 38.3% from deep and could pose a threat to Hamilton if they get hot, but the Continentals still have the offensive edge. While Nazareth has shooting prowess, Hamilton is the clear favorites in this first round game.

Yeshiva University Maccabees (18-10, 13-7)

The “flagship university of Modern Orthodox Judaism” is looking to continue making international headlines (https://forward.com/fast-forward/395397/yeshiva-university-men-s-basketball-team-will-avoid-shabbat-games-for-ncaa/).

The first time Skyline Conference champions and first time NCAA tournament participants look like big underdogs heading into the weekend. They won their conference finals after sneaking past the #1 and #2 seeds in the Skyline conference in the semifinals and then the championship, going to OT against Farmingdale State to reach the final game. Their win against Farmingdale State was the Maccabees’ best win of the season, even though the Rams were slotted at just eighth in the Atlantic regional rankings. They lost to Williams 78-65 and Ramapo 90-71 (ranked #6 nationally at the time) and haven’t seen too many strong opponents. Their top scorer, Simcha Halpert, averages 21.0 PPG, while the next two highest scorers both sink over 17.0 PPG too. Williams shot under 30% from three against Yeshiva but still managed to win easily as a result of their 18 foul shots taken, putting them over the edge against a less experienced team. I don’t imagine that the Maccabees will topple York in the first round, but if they do, Hamilton might just have an easy ticket to the Sweet-16.

York College Spartans (23-4, 14-4)

York poses the biggest threat to Hamilton as they have been dominant and ranked all year.

Here is one of the few downsides to this Spartan team: Of their four losses, only one is to a quality team. The converse of this is that they played two of the teams again that beat them, Salisbury and Christopher Newport, and got vengeance on their earlier match ups, leading York to the CAC conference championship, an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, and home games for the first two rounds. Two of their players average over 17 PPG although only one averages over six rebounds per game (Hamilton has three players over 6.0 REB/G). They are comparable to Hamilton shooting, averaging 83.0 PPG and within one percentage point of both their FG and 3-PT clips. They are 2-0 against ranked teams this season in #11 Swarthmore and our own #18 Middlebury, posing a serious threat to the Continentals. The Spartans dropped 90 points against Midd, hauling in an impressive 52 boards against a team with a deep front-court presence. The Panthers did shoot just 24.1% from beyond the arc in that game, although the game featured more shooting than a normal contest. The Spartans also showed they could out dish a pass heavy Middlebury team, collecting 16 assists to 13, which is about what Hamilton averages per game (15). Like Hamilton, this team can get hot from deep too, shooting 47% from three in their win against Swarthmore, putting them as a similar team the Continentals. If the Spartans meet Hamilton in the round of 32, if will come down to which team shoots better from deep in a high scoring affair.

Defense Wins Championships: Wesleyan @ Amherst Men’s Basketball Semifinal Preview

Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3, #5 Seed) @ Amherst (17-8, 7-3 #1 Seed), 5:30 PM, Amherst, MA

Overview:

As opposed to the offense heavy three point barrage we expect in the Tufts-Hamilton game (detailed beautifully by Colby here,) this should be a gritty, defensive battle. Both these teams pride themselves on their defense. Amherst’s most impressive win of the season was a 75-49 drubbing of Hamilton in which they held the Continentals to 29.4% shooting. That game was the jumping off point for their run to the number one seed. Since then, they are 7-2 and have won their last three games, including wins over Middlebury and Williams. But their most exciting win of this hot stretch was the last one, a thrilling 71-70 win over Bowdoin in the quarterfinals. In that game, Amherst overcame a rough game from Michael Riopel ‘18 thanks to a First Team level performance from Johnny McCarthy ‘18 (22 points) and contributions from several bench players, most notably Josh Chery ‘20, who scored 11 points and hit the game winning layup with 3.4 seconds left. What this Amherst team lacks in star power they make up for in depth and heart.

Amherst’s defense is the key to their recent success.

Of course, the same can be said for Wesleyan. One of Amherst’s losses since that shellacking of Hamilton is to the Cardinals, a 71-57 road loss in which McCarthy and Riopel went 3-20 from the field. Wesleyan’s season is littered with these types of games. The dominate defensively, shut down what the opponent does best, and the offense does just enough to get by. Their quarterfinal game against Middlebury was another great example. While Jack Daly ’18 did have a nice game (20 points and six assists,) the Cardinals stifled Middlebury’s inside game, holding the dangerous forward combo of Nick Tarantino ’18, Eric McCord ’19 and Adisa Majors ’18 to 6-19 shooting. Jordan Sears ’19 had 8 blocks, and with Kevin O’Brien ’19 and his army of tall, long-armed guards on the perimeter, it is nearly impossible to get into the paint and score against Wesleyan. Amherst will have to hit some threes to spread the Cardinals defense. And Wesleyan will have to do the same against Amherst.

Key Player For Amherst: F Josh Chery ’20

Josh Chery ’20
(Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

As I said earlier, Chery was the hero against Bowdoin. With 5 seconds left on the clock, Chery got the ball on the right wing, drove to the rim, and finished a tough layup with 3.4 seconds left. Chery certainly wasn’t the first option,as Johnny McCarthy was lighting it up at that point, but he wasn’t the last one either. Chery has been one of the major keys to Amherst’s recent hot streak. He’s gone over double figures three times in the last four games, and has averaged 25 minutes per game over that stretch after going over 20 minutes just once all season up to that point. At 6’4″ and 215 pounds, he is big and strong enough to guard multiple positions, a huge plus against Wesleyan due to the size of the Cardinal guards. He makes a huge difference on the defensive end, grabbing four steals against Williams and pulling down eight rebounds against Middlebury. And ask Bowdoin how he is finishing at the rim. One thing to watch for is his foul shooting: he’s 0-7 in the last two games. Chery is the ideal player to have on the court against Wesleyan, and, since Wesleyan has proven themselves capable of locking up Riopel and McCarthy, Chery and the rest of the bench mob are the keys to Amherst’s chances.

Key Player for Wesleyan: F Nathan Krill ‘18

Nathan Krill ’18 (Courtesy of Wesleyan Athletics)

The starting power forward on the “Feels Like They’ve Been in College for 2o Years” All Stars, Krill has been in this position before. However, he has never been as important to the team’s offense. Of course, they won last weekend with him only having three points, but they won’t be able to rely on Antone ’21 Walker putting up 11 off the bench and Kevin O’ Brien ’19 scoring 17. Walker is a great talent, but he is streaky, and O’Brien isn’t really a go to scorer. Krill is Wesleyan’s most dangerous pick and roll finisher. He can step behind the three point line and hit, or he can use his quickness and ball handling skills to finish at the rim. Throughout Krill’s career, this combination of skills has made him one of the hardest players to guard in the league when he’s hot. Key word: “when.” Krill has always been incredibly streaky (see his 24 points against Bowdoin versus 3 the next game against Bowdoin.) Krill only had four points in Wesleyan’s win over Amherst during the regular season, but this a whole new Amherst team. Wesleyan needs their stars to shine bright on Saturday, starting with Krill.

Final Thoughts:

Bowdoin was certainly far more skilled than your average eight seed, but Amherst still should have been able to put them away earlier. The Mammoths were uncharacteristically bad defending the three, allowing Bowdoin to shoot 10-28 from outside (and many of those misses were open looks.) Much of Wesleyan’s offense relies on three point shooting, particularly from Jordan Bonner ’19 and Hutcherson. Amherst will have to do a better job running those two off of the three point lie than they did with Bowdoin’s Jack Simonds ’19 and Liam Farley ’19. They will also have to contend with pick and rolls featuring either Bonner or Hutcherson and Krill. Since each of those players are dangerous shooters, the slightest defensive mistake can lead to an open three pointer. Amherst’s best defense here would be an aggressive hedge with their big men and then not switching. A switch would mean that one of Amherst’s big men would be stuck on , a mismatch in favor of Wesleyan. This is why Chery should see big minutes on Saturday, he is big enough to handle Krill and fast enough to handle Hutcherson or Bonner.

If Jordan Bonner ’19 gets hot, Amherst could be in for a long day.

In general, this game is not the best matchup for Amherst’s big men. Joseph Schneider ’19 is skilled inside, but he might get swallowed by the athleticism of Wesleyan’s front court. And with Eric Sellew ’20 out, Amherst’s big men rotation is very thin. This presents a big problem on the glass. Amherst simply must win the rebounding battle in this game. These are the two best rebounding teams in the league based on rebounding margin, and both are at their most dangerous when they get open shots off of offensive rebounds. Both these teams will be battling fiercely for rebounds, but it is more important for Amherst because they have fewer weapons on the offensive end. More of their offense is based on second chances.

All the signs point to Wesleyan in this game. They’ve had a more successful regular season, they have more weapons, and they played better in their first round game. But the game is in Amherst, and crazy things happen down there. The Mammoths are 10-2 at home this season, and have an almost supernatural knack for pulling out close games in their gym. I think most loyal readers will know how much it kills me to do this, but I have to go Amherst. Let no one call me biased again.

Writer’s Prediction: Amherst 63, Wesleyan 60

The Real NESCAC ‘Ship? Hamilton @ Williams Preview

Hamilton (22-3, 7-3) @ Williams (20-5, 7-3)2/24 7:30 PM @ Amherst, MA

Overview:

This could be the matchup between the two best NESCAC teams, but it happens to only have a ticket to the finals and not a banner on the line. Williams travelled to Hamilton just two weeks ago with the Ephs coming out on top in a big way, pulling away by 14 in the second half, winning 81-67. Although both teams are shoe ins to make the NCAA tournament, only one is going to have a chance at the NESCAC title and home field advantage in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament still hangs in the balance. Hamilton shot unusually poorly last time these teams met at 37.3% while their season average is 46.4%. Williams, on the other hand, shot 45% from deep and 54.3% overall, way up from their 47% season average.

Kena Gilmour is going to need to be at his best to advance to the NESCAC finals.

Hamilton has turned it back around after a brief scuffle at the midway point of conference play, showing the rest of the league that their season may be far from over. They beat Middlebury handily in the last weekend of the year 102-83 and knocking off Tufts without much struggle 91-82 in the quarterfinals despite shooting horribly. If they play anything like they did against the Panthers, they will be unstoppable as they lit it up (52.5% FG, 62.5% 3 PT) and only turned the ball over 11 times. Despite their win against the Jumbos in the quarterfinals, they only shot 16.7% from deep which won’t do the trick against the Ephs as their shooters have been on fire in their own right. Bobby Casey and James Heskett won’t stop scoring, so don’t be fooled by their narrow margin of victory over a weak Trinity team 73-71. Coupling Williams’ recent lack of depth with Hamilton’s recent shooting inconsistencies, this game could swing in any sort of direction.

Williams X-Factor: Centers Matthew Karpowicz/Michael Kempton

Despite James Heskett’s breakout season as a PF, his outside shooting combined with a recent lack of rebounds leaves a deficit in the front court for the Ephs. Not a single Williams player had more than six boards in any of their last three games. Centers Michael Kempton and Matthew Karpowicz are a major key to this matchup as they need to battle down low against Peter Hoffmann, Michael Grassey, and Kena Gilmour who combined for 37 boards against Tufts. With the possibility of Hamilton shooting their way to over 100 points like against the Panthers, Williams is going to need to grab offensive boards for Heskett and Casey to have big enough games to keep the Ephs on top. Karpowicz has hauled in double digit boards three times this season and is going to need to bring his A game this weekend as the Hamilton bigs are a big presence down low.

Hamilton X-Factor: F Michael Grassey ’19

Kena Gilmour and James Heskett are sure to score back and forth in this game, while Grassey needs to get close to matching the production of the new sharp shooting Bobby Casey. Gilmour should be the top scorer for the Continentals, although Grassey is the biggest three point shooting threat for Hamilton. He makes 40% of his shots from beyond the arc and scores nearly half of his point per game on such shots. He has also had some duds along the way though, going 1-7 from deep in a loss against Bowdoin and just 1-6 last weekend. Casey, like Grassey, has had some streaks, including a 14-25 run from deep in his last three games and a 1-10 performance against Bowdoin. The shooting scales will tip in the direction of whichever deep threat is more accurate.

Final Thoughts:

Both of these teams have played remarkably well all year, culminating in what is sure to be a barn burning head to head matchup. Hamilton made a long awaited transition to a powerhouse team while Williams battled injuries and adjusted perfectly with players stepping into new roles and Coach Kevin App leading the way. They have had some tough losses down the stretch—Williams to Amherst and Hamilton to Bowdoin, but they looked good in their opening round playoff games. Hamilton has a deeper scoring arsenal and more big game threats than Williams (due to their injuries) and looks to be more balanced headed into this semifinal. As mentioned, Bobby Casey has come out of nowhere recently to carry the Ephs. Cole Teal has played terribly as the fourth highest healthy scorer behind Heskett (19.6 PPG), Casey (16.2 PPG), and Karpowicz (9.2 PPG). He finally found his shot against Trinity, going 5-9, and without Kyle Scadlock or Mike Greenman, he can’t have any more 4-24 shooting stretches at this point in the season.

In the wake of injuries, Henry Feinberg ’20 has stepped into the starting lineup as a defensive small forward.

The combination of Kena Gilmour, Tim Doyle, Peter Hoffmann, and Grassey who all average over double-digit PPG should stretch out the Williams defense on the perimeter. They do turn over the ball and don’t distribute well, ranking in the bottom half of the NESCAC in both stats. This game is going to be a game of runs, with both teams finding streaky performances throughout their seasons. Both have top of the ‘CAC talent and potential POYs on the court in Heskett and Gilmour, and whichever team wins is going to likely win the conference.

Writer’s Prediction: 83-78 Hamilton

A New Frontier: Men’s Basketball Stock Report 2/19

Stock Up

Amherst F Johnny McCarthy ‘18

Johnny McCarthy ’18 (Courtesy of Amherst Athletics)

It’s been a bit of an up and down year for McCarthy. After three years of being underrated because of Jayde Dawson’s ball dominance. In fact, he was so underrated that he entered this season a little overrated. Like Amherst as a whole, he struggled during the regular season, and for a while it seemed like he just wasn’t suited to be a number one option. But as he improved, so did Amherst. McCarthy reinvented himself as a dominant rebounder, defender and paint scorer. And, as he has done so many times over the course of his career, he saved his best for the biggest moments. With Amherst facing a challenge from the 8 seeded Bowdoin Polar Bears in the first round, McCarthy had his best game of the year. He scored 22 points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 5 assists. He also hit the second biggest shot of the game, a 30 footer after a broken play that put Amherst up by four in the final minutes. McCarthy and Amherst are peaking at the right time, and really, did we expect anything different?

Jordan Sears ‘19 for DPOY

I like to think that Sears read our pick of Folger, printed it out, put it up in his locker, and then read it again right before Wesleyan’s game against Middlebury. He looked like a man possessed against Middlebury, blocking eight shots (!) and snuffing out countless pick and rolls with incredible perimeter defense. Sears had four blocks in the final five minutes or so of the game, effectively snuffing out any hope Middlebury had of coming back. Sears is the definition of a difference making defender, and his performance against Middlebury pretty much guarantees him the DPOY trophy.

Jordan Sears ’19 owned the Panthers on Saturday to the degree that he is actually now President of Middlebury College.

NCAA Representation

Last season, the NESCAC had five teams gain NCAA berths for the first time in conference history. The results this weekend are steps in the direction repeating that performance, and even make six teams a distinct possibility. Now bear with me, because this gets a little confusing. NCAA berths are decided based on the NCAA Regional Rankings, NOT the D3 Hoops Top 25. The regional rankings can be found here. As you can see, the top four teams in Northeast are all NESCAC teams. In order, they are Hamilton, Wesleyan, Williams and Middlebury. These four teams were pretty much assured of NCAA bids, regardless of their quarterfinal games. Middlebury and Wesleyan were basically playing for a home game, and Williams and Hamilton were entirely safe. Amherst was the question mark. They entered the quarterfinals eighth in the regional rankings. This is a shaky position. They certainly needed a win over Bowdoin to keep their hopes alive, but they are still on the bubble to certain degree. Their performance in the final regular season weekend, along with their win over Bowdoin, should get them a berth, giving the NESCAC, again, five NCAA teams.

Stock Down

Tufts

The Jumbos were 11th in the regional rankings. This is not a complicated position; they basically needed to win the NESCAC tournament, or AT LEAST make the final, to sneak into the NCAA’s. Their loss to Hamilton ends their season, and the excellent career of Vincent Pace ’18. Pace deserves a great deal of credit for persevering despite one of the more unlucky careers of any star in recent NESCAC memory. After a solid first season, he was dominant during his sophomore campaign, averaging 17 points per game on 50% shooting. It looked like he and Tufts were going to ride the combo of he, Hunter Sabety and Tom Palleschi to NESCAC dominance. Then Sabety transferred, and Pace suffered a nagging injury in practice that affected him for his whole junior year. His numbers fell in every catagory, and another injury to Tom Palleschi set back what was a very strong squad. And then this season, Tufts never really got going, and again struggled with injuries, to crucial bench scorers KJ Garrett ’19 and Ben Engvall ’18. Tufts, and Pace, are one of the great “what-ifs” in recent NESCAC history, but their saga is over for this season.

First Years

Many of the top first years in the conference found out that tournament ball is very different from even regular season NESCAC play. Middlebury’s Jack Farrell ’21, after a breakout 22 point game against Amherst during the final weekend, was locked up by the Cardinals to the tune of 0 points on 0-4 shooting. However, Austin Hutcherson ’21 of Wesleyan wasn’t much better, putting up 9 points on 2-10 shooting. And Amherst’s standout PG Grant Robinson ’21 was invisible, tallying three points on 1-3 shooting. All of these players looked a little taken aback at the physicality and intensity of tournament play, a very normal feeling for first years. A notable exception was Bowdoin’s underrated (but not by this blog, we love him) PG Zavier Rucker ’21, who scored 11 points and added 7 rebounds and six assists. Hutcherson is still, in my mind, the easy pick for Rookie of the Year, but it was interesting to see how all these players struggled in the their first playoff experience, and how Rucker very much did not.

Zavier Rucker ’21 was by far the most comfortable first year last weekend, and looks like a star in the making.

Anything Can Happen: Tufts @ Hamilton Men’s Basketball Quarterfinal Preview

Tufts (17-7, 6-4) @ #15 Hamilton (21-3, 7-3), 3:00 PM, Clinton, NY

It’s finally time for the madness that is the NESCAC tournament. Last season we saw the title game between Middlebury (the #2 seed) and Williams (the #6 seed), which shows that really anything can happen. Only adding to the chaos is the fact that 5 teams tied for first place this season, giving Middlebury a road game in the first round despite being tied for first, and giving Tufts the #6 seed despite being just a single game out of first place. Many people (or just me) have likened the NESCAC tournament to FIFA’s Euro Cup – it is a smaller tournament that only covers one region, yet many people argue that it is more difficult to win the Euro Cup than the FIFA World Cup because the Euro Cup boasts a much deeper pool of teams. I would argue that the same could be said about the NESCAC – the conference consistently has more tournament teams than anyone else, and the conference tournament is certainly deeper top to bottom than the NCAA Division III tournament. As a result, the first round games are just as exciting as the later round games, especially in a season where the teams are so evenly matched. The opening round game between #3 Hamilton and #6 Tufts is one to highlight, as this season has been a bit of a role reversal for both teams:

Overview:

Hamilton comes into the matchup at #15 in the nation after finishing the season at an outstanding 21-3 mark, including 7-3 in conference play. The Continentals got off to a blistering start, coming out of the gates at 14-0 before suffering a bad loss to the eventual #1 seed Amherst. They dropped games to Bowdoin and Williams as well, placing them in the midst of the 5-way tie. In their first meeting, Hamilton traveled to Medford and handed it to the Jumbos in a 74-57 drubbing in an incredibly ugly shooting game. The star for Hamilton, sophomore Kena Gilmour ’20, had a modest game in the first meeting, netting 10 points on 2-9 shooting, while hauling in 9 boards. As a team, the Continentals lead the NESCAC in points per game (87.4), steals per game (8.8), and turnovers forced per game (18.4). This means that Hamilton will look to run and speed up the game, because the higher the score goes, the better their chances.

Kena Gilmour ’20 is becoming a star right before our eyes, but can he do it in his first playoff experience?

The story for Tufts this season has been a bit different. Although they were just a game out of first place, they finished with the #6 seed – their lowest finish since 2013-2014. What’s interesting is that had Tufts not dropped their meeting with Bates, they would have entered into a 6-way tie for first place, which is crazy to think about. Either way, here we are, with this intriguing matchup. In their regular season game with Hamilton, Vincent Pace ’18, the unquestioned star for Tufts, only put up 12 points and 6 rebounds on 3-14 from the field and 1-8 from deep. These numbers are nothing in comparison to his season line of 17.6PPG, 8.3REB/G, 40% FG. The real issue for the Jumbos was that they were outrebounded by Hamilton, 49-38. While Hamilton may have one of the biggest lineups in the league, Tufts has to be better keeping them off the boards if they want to have a chance in this one. Tufts also shot an abysmal 24% from the field, which will likely improve in this contest.

Hamilton X-Factor: F Michael Grassey ’19

The Continental lineup is stacked with scorers, and Grassey is one of them. He has had a very consistent presence all season, averaging 13.7PPG, 6.7REB/G, 50.7% FG, 42.2% 3PT. What sets Grassey apart is that he has the ability to really go off, in addition to being a consistent scoring threat. He has had three 20-plus point performances (27 vs. Conn College, 29 vs. Cazenovia, 24 vs. Utica) and can get REALLY hot from downtown. In those three games combined, he went 16-22 from behind the arc. At 6’4”, 205lbs, he is tall enough to shoot over guards, and his size makes him a prolific rebounder. Hamilton has many weapons, but if Michael Grassey ’19 can put up a big performance, they are nearly impossible to beat.

Tufts X-Factor: duo of C Luke Rogers ’21 and C Patrick Racy ’20

Patrick Racy ’20 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

As I mentioned before, Tufts struggled on the rebounding side in their first meeting with Hamilton. Guards Vincent Pace ‘18, KJ Garrett ‘18, and Everett Dayton ‘18 provide the majority of the Jumbos’ rebounding, despite them having two large centers in their rotation. This game for Tufts will be decided by this duo because with Rogers standing at

Luke Rogers ’21 (Courtesy of Tufts Athletics)

6’8”, 230lbs and Racy at 6’7”, 215lbs, they are huge presences in the paint. They have similar stat lines – about 5PPG, 4.5REB/G, 45% FG – and each play just under 20 minutes per game. This means that they have a similar effect, so Coach Sheldon has the option of playing them separately to always have one on the court at all times, or they could go big and put them both on the floor to match Hamilton’s size. Either way, I expect these centers to have a much larger impact in this one.

Final Thoughts:

I have to admit, all signs seem to point to Hamilton in this one. They crushed the Jumbos in their first matchup in Medford, and have seemed to play better, consistent basketball this season. This will likely be a high scoring game with the Continentals and Jumbos having the 1st and 3rd highest scoring offenses respectively. Hamilton shoots a much higher percentage from the floor, from three-point land, and from the charity stripe, which obviously gives them a huge edge. I praise the Continentals, but I have a weird feeling about this one. Their lineup is still a bit young and unproven in the postseason, and NESCAC basketball is just really weird. Vincent Pace ’18 is an absolute winner, and has proven himself capable of putting up huge performances, as he displayed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season when he put up 37 points. Hamilton may be 21-3 and #15 in the nation, but for some reason I’m not completely sold on them so I have to go with my gut feeling here. The #6 seed means nothing to the Jumbos and I believe that Pace and co. have a little bit of tourney magic in them to steal a win from the hands of the Continentals.

Vincent Pace ’18 has several clutch performances under his belt, and we think his biggest one is yet to come.

Writers Pick: Tufts 86-81

Grit N’ Grind: Middlebury @ Wesleyan Men’s Basketball Quarterfinal Preview

#13 Middlebury (19-5, 7-3, 5th Seed) @ Wesleyan (19-5, 7-3, 4th Seed,) February 17th, 3:00 PM, Middletown, CT

Overview:

This certainly isn’t the matchup the Panthers were expecting heading into last weekend. Before their demoralizing pair of road losses to Hamilton and Amherst, Middlebury was alone at the top of the league and needed just one win to secure at least the two seed. But after those losses, Middlebury sits in the fifth position and now has to go on the road to play a team to which they already lost. It was a perfect storm of bad news for the Panthers last weekend, and their road to a third straight NESCAC title is now the hardest one yet.

However, this is not an ideal matchup for Wesleyan either. The 13th ranked team in the country is a pretty steep task for the quarterfinals, no matter how badly they played the weekend before. Wesleyan lucked out schedule-wise in the last weekend, winning home games over Bowdoin and Colby to enter the gauntlet of 7-3 teams. This was by far the easiest weekend of any of the teams. And, although they beat the Panthers early in league play 80-70 (although it was closer than that score suggests,) they have been inconsistent this season, especially on offense. Their worst loss of the season came to Trinity, a 73-60 debacle that made plain all of Wesleyan’s flaws. Offensively, they rely on different players every night, and lack a consistent go-to scorer. Even Jordan Bonner ‘19 has proven himself to be shaky at times. When they lose, it is simply because they cannot score.

Jordan Bonner ’19 has been a go to scorer at times for the Cardinals, but he is very streaky.

Obviously, these problems are similar to those that Middlebury has faced all season. These teams are similar in style. Both teams rely on a very strong perimeter defense and dominating the boards, leading to turnovers by their opponent and second chance points that make up for inconsistent outside shooting. Last weekend, Middlebury’s offense wasn’t exactly the problem against Hamilton. They put up 83 points and were able to score in the paint pretty easily. Unfortunately, Hamilton’s outside shooting was too much for Middlebury. It’s difficult to match three pointers with two pointers. And then against Amherst, Middlebury couldn’t get anything going offensively, much like Wesleyan against Trinity. This should be a low scoring, defensive battle. Whichever team can grind out enough baskets will win.

Key Player for Middlebury: G Jack Farrell ‘21

jack Farrell ’21 (Courtesy of Middlebury College Athletics)

Farrell was a lone bright spot for Middlebury over the weekend. He drove the ball to the basket with incredible confidence, scoring 11 against Hamilton and a career high 22 the next night against Amherst. Farrell has started every game this season, and has proved himself to be a valuable secondary ball handler and defender. Coach Brown has used him, along with fellow first year Griffin Kornaker ‘21, to give Jack Daly ‘18 the occaisional rest. However, for much of the season neither has been a consistent enough scoring option to allow Daly to be off the floor for long. But Farrell changed that last weekend. When Farrell is scoring consistently, it means he is getting to the basket, as he is still not a great outside shooter. This draws defenses into the paint, and opens up outside shots and offensive rebounding chances for the Panthers. A strong performance from Farrell would also allow Daly to ease off the throttle a bit. Daly looked exhausted against Amherst, and was trying to do too much in order to make up for the struggles of his teammates. Middlebury needs better performances across the board on Friday, especially from Daly, but that doesn’t necessarily mean scoring. He needs to score efficiently, but Middlebury’s best possible offense features Daly setting everything up and others finishing. Farrell is one of those finishers.

Key Player for Wesleyan: F Jordan Sears ‘19

We gave Sears a little love in the Awards article, but he’s a dominant defender both on the perimeter and in the paint. He is the only player in the league in the top five in the league in steals and blocks, and Wesleyan’s defense (one of the best in the league) centers around his ability to guard all five positions. In fact, an apology may be in order for us not picking him for DPOY. Sears’ versatility will be even more important against Middlebury than it usually is for the Cardinals, because of how differently the Panthers are constituted now than they were when these teams first met. In that first game, the Panthers were trying to be a high octane, run and gun offense. It was one of Eric McCord’s first games back from injury, and the Panthers weren’t nearly as focused on owning the paint, preferring perimeter attacks. In essence, they played right into Wesleyan’s hands. Middlebury over the course of the season has shifted their focus to rebounding and scoring in the paint. Sears will be crucial in defending that area. Instead of using him on the perimeter, Wesleyan may put him on McCord or Adisa Majors ’18 to limit Middlebury’s post up game. Either way, Sears will be all over the court this game, and could be MVP without scoring a single basket.

Jordan Sears had 2 steals and 4 blocks last time these two teams met, including this one on Jack Daly.

X Factor: Offensive Rebounding

There are going to be a lot of missed shots in this game. Middlebury has struggled shooting the ball from three for so long that one can’t even really call it a “slump” anymore: that’s just how they shoot. And Wesleyan is very streaky from three as well, and has a tendency to settle for them when the rest of their offense isn’t flowing. A lot of missed shots lead to a lot of offensive rebounds. Middlebury has dominated the boards for much of the season, and had 21 offensive rebounds the first time these two teams met. Wesleyan had only 11, but of course, they also shot a much higher percentage from the field. These are two excellent defensive teams, so the ability to get easy layups on open jump shots off of offensive rebounds could turn the tide.

Final Thoughts:

In the first meeting between these two teams, Wesleyan shot 35 foul shots and Middlebury only shot 7. Needless to say, that isn’t a very sustainable way for Middlebury to play. And even more amazingly, Jack Daly was the only Panther to attempt a foul shot. That will change on Saturday. Eric McCord ’19 is a far larger part of Middlebury’s offense now, and the team as a whole is far more focused on attacking the rim. Middlebury has to even out those free throw numbers, as that was the difference in the last game.

As we’ve noted several times throughout this season, Middlebury struggles most against teams who attack the glass as ferociously as they do, and feature multiple three point threats. Middlebury likes to play an aggressive zone defense, allowing their pesky guards like Daly, Farrell and Griffin Kornaker ’21 to really pressure the ball and create turnovers. But as Hamilton proved, teams that can put three or four outside threats on the court at once can destroy that zone with quick passes to open threes. Wesleyan is certainly able to battle Middlebury on the glass; they are second in the league in rebounding differential (Middlebury is third.) But the Cardinals can’t space the floor like Hamilton can. Austin Hutcherson ’21 is a truly dangerous sharp shooter, hitting 41% of his threes on the year (although he was 2-14 over the weekend.) Jordan Bonner ’19 is at 36% but has struggled in league play, and Nathan Krill ’18 is at 39%. Those are Wesleyan’s only real three point threats, and Krill and Bonner are both notoriously streaky. Middlebury will be able to leave non shooters, such as Sears, Kevin O’ Brien ’19 and JR Bascom, to attack those shooters off of the catch, and that zone defense should be workable, since Wesleyan doesn’t bring shooters off the bench. Middlebury would obviously prefer to be a higher seed and play at home, but this is actually a pretty good matchup for them.

Kevin O’ Brien ’19 is the point of Wesleyan’s defense on Daly.

Speaking of O ‘Brien, he is still recovering from an illness that caused him to miss much of the NESCAC season. When he’s at 100%, he is crucial to Wesleyan’s success as a floor general (5.7 AST/G) and perimeter defender. However, he is not a great shooter to begin with, and his rust has made him even less of a scoring threat. He was a huge factor in guarding Jack Daly when these two teams first played, and if he is not 100%, the Panthers should be able to attack him on both offense and defense. They can stash a defender on him, and since he isn’t an outside threat, whoever that is, be it Farrell, Matt Folger ’20 or Hilal Dahleh ’19, will be free to double Bonner and Hutcherson and play free safety for blocks and steals. Wesleyan needs O’Brien, and they need him healthy.

This is a hard game to predict, because these two teams share a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses. Inconsistent scoring and three point shooting, strong rebounding and defense. Wesleyan is certainly coming into the game on a better note, but they had such an easy weekend that they might be feeling a little complacent, whereas Middlebury is most likely pretty ticked off. It shouldn’t be forgotten in the wake of Middlebury’s 0-2 finish to the year that for much of the season they were the clear best team in the league, and entered last weekend fifth in the entire country. Despite their struggles and Wesleyan’s defense, I think Middlebury makes use of this week off to hammer out some issues, and regains their championship level form, taking a low scoring battle in Middletown.

Writer’s Prediction: Middlebury 70-Wesleyan 65

Entering the Belly of the Beast: Trinity @ Williams NESCAC Quarterfinal Preview

Trinity (15-9, 4-6) @ #9 Williams (19-5, 7-3), 7:00 PM, Williamstown, MA

Overview:

After a wild weekend of NESCAC basketball, Trinity limped into the playoffs as the #7 seed and Williams, like Middlebury, fell to the now #1 seeded Amherst Mammoths, dropping them in conference and in the national rankings. Obviously there is a big gap between Bowdoin and Trinity, the #7 and #8 teams in these playoffs and the top six teams. Bowdoin and Trinity combine for an 8-12 conference record (each 4-6 in conference), while the top six teams are all above .500. So, nabbing the #2 seed actually holds a lot of weight for the Ephs even though they missed out on hosting the NESCAC tournament (unless Amherst blows it against Bowdoin).

Kyle Padmore ’20 and his Trinity squad needs to play out of their minds to have a chance to win.

Trinity was on a bit of a hot streak entering last weekend, knocking off Wesleyan 73-60 and losing to Middlebury by just six (87-81), but fell flat against both Tufts (76-71) and Bates (65-48) who is now in their offseason. The Bantams had 17 turnovers in their game against the Bobcats, five over their season average. They were outscored by 12 in the second half and were destined for defeat thanks to a 12-13 free throw shooting performance from their opponent. They will need to play more disciplined basketball and shoot how they did against Wesleyan (9-18 3-PT) to have a chance against Williams. Williams, similarly, had won five in a row and 7/8 games before they lost a game they were expected to win against Amherst. They lost by a score of 72-57 to the Mammoths and shot just 27.6% from deep, much lower than their 35.8% season average that ranks third in the NESCAC. They shot just 33.9% overall in the game and didn’t have a single player haul in more than six boards.

Trinity X-Factor: Donald Jorden ‘21

Eric Gendron is going to need to play the game of his career for the Bantams to win—there is no denying that. But he can’t win the game alone. He will need members of his supporting cast, namely Donald Jorden, a first-year bench player, to come up clutch in a key situation to keep this Trinity team in contention. Although he only averages 4 PPG on the season, he has shot 16-19 in his last four games, tallying 16 points against Wesleyan in the Bantams’ best win of the year. If he can play an equally big role and everything else goes perfectly, then Trinity could have a chance to upset the #9 team in the country—if they don’t show up to play at all.

Williams X-Factor: Bobby Casey

While James Heskett is a potential player of the year, Casey has been the MVP of their last two games. The senior has scored a combined 53 points in his games against Amherst and Hamilton, shooting 16-30 total and a blistering 10-18 from deep. He is averaging 16.1 points per game on the season but really broke out right before the playoffs. If he plays anything like he did against Hamilton (31 points, 7-10 3-PT), then the Ephs should control this game from start to finish.

Final Thoughts:

It is no secret that Trinity is the heavy underdog in this game as they already lost 75-58 in their meeting earlier this year. Williams is deeper, has played better against better teams, and obviously has a better record. They are playing at home and are comfortable with their position, hoping to snag a home weekend in the semis if Bowdoin can upset Wesleyan. Trinity should be weary but know that they have nothing to lose.

Williams has few holes, but Cole Teal’s shooting of late hasn’t made his teammates celebrate like they are in this picture.

Some things to note for this game are that Williams has a struggling player in their starting lineup and could lead to a double team on defense on either Bobby Casey or James Heskett. This flawed player is Cole Teal who has shot 1-17 in his last two games. You read that right. 1-17. That isn’t good and certainly contributed to Williams’ loss against Amherst. That kind of inefficiency led to many wasted possessions for the Ephs and if the Bantams are on fire—as they need to be—it could certainly play into an upset factor.

Even though on the season Williams is also ever so slightly better defensively than Trinity, racking up 0.2 more rebounds per game and 0.4 more steals per game on average than the Bantams. This is another reason that Donald Jorden could come in to be a key player as he racked up 10 rebounds in his big game against Wesleyan, as many as any Williams player has had combined in their last two games. Williams still has the edge by a large margin in this game, but Trinity could put up a fight in their best case scenario.

Writer’s Prediction: 79-64 Williams